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1his, in case your eyes just glazed oer, is a ictional web log entry ,diaries are .o twentieth century, set at the end o 2005. I it sounds both aguely amiliar and disorienting, it`s because this is what we`e been promised...and not been getting.
I all the media hype, press releases, and marketing brochures are to be belieed, we should be, by this time or at least in the next couple o years, suring the \eb 200 times aster, downloading ull-length moies on demand, and accessing the oice VPN rom home or on the road.
1he reality is, majority o us who are connected to the Internet still do so ia our 28.8 or 56kbps dial-up modems. And those who`e upgraded to cable Internet or DSL are bitching about it eery single day.
Instead o broadband utopia, we get nightmarish news and horror stories like Seered broadband customers cry oul` rom PC \orld.com, Broadband a long haul in Asia Paciic` rom Gartner Group, Cable net`s demise raises new worries` rom Network \orld, Businesses ight bandwidth blues` rom PC Adisor, and Lxecuties conront broadband`s harsh reality` rom Computerworld.
Messages posted on discussion boards and mailing lists are more brutal: IMO, I don't get my money's worth with it`, there should be a law punishing businesses or not deliering what they promise to gie`, and somebody should sue these people or alse adertising`. And it only gets worse.
Is it not surprising then current statistics are not too encouraging \orldwide, the number o Internet users with broadband access was 11 million in 2000, or around 2.6 o all Internet users. According to Jupiter Media Metrix, in the U.S., around 5.2 million out o 5 million online households, or just 9, had broadband access in 2000. 1he \ankee Group earlier projected that 10 million U.S. homes ought to hae DSL connections by now, but only 2 million hae so ar. At the end o 2001, 5 o U.S. homes will hae broadband access aailable to them. \et only 4 to o U.S. households actually sign up or the serice.
\hat`s wrong with this picture Obiously, the igures are lower than expected. 1here are two possible reasons or this. One, Internet users are waiting by choice. 1wo, Internet users are waiting becav.e there`s no choice.
1here`s no doubt Internet users want broadband access. Seen years or so o ranting about dial-up speeds make it high time or an upgrade. But early adopters hae not been oerwhelmingly ecstatic about the broadband serice they`e been 1 getting. Actual speed is much slower than adertised, downtime occurs more requently than expected, it`s not always an always-on Internet, technical support sucks, and the cost does not justiy the perormance. Add to that the uncertainties brought about by the recent closure o major broadband proiders in the U.S. such as Coad, Northpoint, Lnron, and Lxcitelome, which could just as well happen here. Does that reak you out or what
On the lip side o the coin, een those who want their cable or DSL hae to wait...and wait. 1he act is, broadband access is aailable only at selected areas, typically high-end residential and business districts. 1hose who do hae cable 1V oten hae to wait or the pipes to be upgraded to two-way transmission or Internet use. Same thing or the telephone copper wires or DSL to work.
1his is the situation in most countries, including the Philippines. According to IDC Philippines, only 9 thousand out o some 1.5 million lilipino Internet users had broadband access in 2000, or 0.6 o the Internet population, a >3 million business. Pyramid Research placed it at .2 thousand in 2000 and about 15 thousand in 2001. \e compare to Malaysia, Indonesia, 1hailand, and India and are ery poorly is-a-is long Kong, Singapore, and South Korea. Asia-Paciic itsel has 6.1 million broadband subscribers in 2000 out o the 8 million total Internet subscribers, according to Dataquest. Our share is a measly 0.1. \orldwide, there were around 11.3 million broadband subscribers in 2000 and about 28 million in 2001. Our share About 0.08 in 2000 and 0.05 in 2001.
History of Broadband
o hae a better perspectie on the broadband industry, it`s important to look at a short history o broadband and how it eoled.
lor all the hype o broadband being the next big thing, the truth is the technology has been around or some time. ISDN, rame relay, and leased lines hae sered corporate clients or years. Len DSL technology has been deeloped years beore but was neer deployed until recently.
Keep in mind howeer that in most countries, telecommunications irms are either a state-owned entity or a priate monopoly. By that irtue alone, there`s little incentie to innoate. Just recall the decades beore the early nineties when you had to wait or years to get a phone line, een one with a party line.
But two major orces conerged in the mid-nineties that brought to lie broadband technology: the exponential growth o the Internet and the deregulation o the telecoms industry.
I the Internet did not become such a worldwide phenomenon, pushing demand or aster access and more compelling multimedia content, the inrastructure or oice and text-based data would hae suiced. But the \eb changed all that. Much o the demand, o course, is manuactured by peddlers o online multimedia content, and by the hardware and access suppliers that support them, but there i. a serious and real market need or speed and more compelling Internet applications.
Deregulation also played a crucial role in the deelopment o the broadband industry. In the U.S., it was the 1elecommunications Act in 1996. In the Philippines, it was the 1 1elecommunications Act in 1995, although the orces o deregulation started as early as 198. Imagine i PLD1 was still the sole proider o telecommunications in the country. Broadband serices would hae been rolled out much slower, i at all. Oerpriced ISDN and 11 lines would neer reach the Internet masses. And prices would hae been sky-high.
\hile the local state o the telecoms industry is ar rom ideal, the act is that the deregulation o the industry by the Ramos administration undoubtedly made this sector one o the high-growth areas o our economy.
Clearly, it has spawned a number o new players. 1he telecoms industry`s hierarchy starts with the carriers, then the alue- added serice ,VAS, proiders, which includes the Internet Serice Proiders ,ISPs,. Currently, there are 11 carriers, including PLD1, Globe, Smart, Lxtelcom, and Bell 1elecom. 1here are numerous VAS, with about 200 ISPs, such as Moscom, Paciic Internet, Inter.net, Inocom, and Virtual Asia.
1hen there are the cable 1V ,CA1V, operators, namely Skycable,lome Cable and Destiny, with dozens o local operators across the country. Plus direct- to-home satellite systems such as Philippine Multimedia Systems.
1here must be a good reason or this rush o players. Unlike dot-coms, e-commerce sites, and \eb deelopers, the barriers to entry or telcos and CA1V operators are much, much higher.
Getting a license to operate is in itsel a huge hurdle to oercome. 1ake the case o Bell 1elecoms, which took years beore being inally granted a license to operate.
1hen, there`s the capital needed to operate. Setting a communications inrastructure is not or amateurs. 1he Board o Inestments ,BoI, reported that telecommunications irms contributed 88 o the total inormation and communications technology ,IC1,-related inestments or the irst eigth months o 2001. Globe poured in about P40 billion, Smart around P18 billion, Digital more than P8 billion, Meridian 1elekom with P16 million, Mabuhay about P11 billion, the list goes on. All these regulatory and inancial obstacles or what 88 thousand broadband Internet subscribers by 2005, that is. 1hat`s a ten- old increase rom 2000 numbers. 1hat`s still a pittance compared to the global estimate o 223 vittiov. Large enough pie or a dozen proiders One client with multiple users means high bandwidth requirements and thereore premium prices. A ten-old increase in reenues by 2005 translates to more than hal a billion peso pie ,assuming same rates, zero inlation, and lat exchange rates, to make things simple,. Some endors are much more optimistic, projecting millions o subscribers and a hundred billion peso industry by 2005. In any case, or broadband in the country, it`s quality, not quantity that matters. Obiously, majority o the population is not the target market or broadband access. 1he real target market segments are upper middle and upper residential customers, corporate clients, SMLs, educational institutions, and goernment oices. 1isha Gay Corros, Customer Serice Manager o Mosaic Communications, the country`s largest ISP, says most business clients will moe to broadband Internet in the next ie years. Only residential users would continue to use dial-up access regularly.`
Problems with Broadband
he picture indeed seems rosy. But why did only 0.6 to 0.5 percent o current Internet users upgraded to broadband lere`s a check list o problems:
High price. It`s just expensie. lor end consumers, a DSL or cable Internet connection means, in the case o PLD1 myDSL, P2,000 to P2,500 a month, plus a P1,500 setup ee. Some cable companies throw in ree cable 1V, which is not a bad deal, but still prohibitie or most lilipino households. ZPDee oers packages ranging rom P1,00 to P10,000, depending on megabytes downloaded. Destiny oers P1,980 plus modem rental plus setup ee or unlimited use. 1rue, or heay users who can aord it, a broadband connection at the lower range o these prices is justiiable, considering that the aerage rates or unlimited broadband compare with 150 hours o dial-up access, neer mind i actual speed is slightly better and not a hundred or so times aster as adertised. But or middle- class households, it`s a burden.
lor businesses, while broadband has generally become more aordable and the options hae increased, or majority o SMLs, especially those that do not ind a pressing need or Internet access, the cost is still prohibitie. Globe is selling its DSL serice or >1,250 or instance. Digitel oers packages rom P8,500 to P40,000, depending on bandwidth.
Costly bandwidth. Prices or broadband serices are high mainly because the supply itsel is expensie. An L1 line to the U.S. costs around >10-20,000 a month, a two-way iber DS3 costs >200,000 a month.
Insufficient local content. 1he need or more international bandwidth stems rom the outside Internet traic demanded by the local market, which accesses \eb sites hosted abroad, including many prominent local sites. 1his makes us dependent on IPLs ,international priate leased lines,, which are ery costly. According to a Businessworld report, international bandwidth...is said to account or as much as 50 o the Internet serice proider's operating cost. Analysts estimate that more than 90 o \eb traic in the Philippines goes out to the United States.` 1he case is dierent in South Korea or instance, where Koreans access mostly local content, so the traic is mainly within the country, which itsel has an excellent inrastructure. Spotty serviced areas. Another problem is that broadband access is made aailable in ery select areas, i.e. the main business districts like Makati and Ortigas, and major cities such as Cebu and Daao. lor residents, it starts with the upper-class subdiisions and moes gradually to upper-middle. So een those who want it and can aord it but are not located in these selected districts need to wait much longer or the access proiders to roll out their serices in their areas. It could be that the copper or cable wires are not ready or DSL or two-way transmission, or the central oice is not equipped or it. Perhaps the place is outside the assigned or the local exchange carrier or in the outskirts o the central business district or metropolitan area. lor DSL or cable, it will take a while. lixed wireless and satellite broadband access are not limited by wires and thereore can best be proided in such cases, the pricier packages being the primary obstacle or adoption.
1 Limited subscribers. On the other hand, another reason or the limited aailability is the limited demand in certain areas. It could also be that the access proider, particularly o DSL and cable, does not ind suicient demand within a particular location or broadband serices.
Another reason is the low PC penetration rate. Miguel Paraz, VP or 1echnology o Inter.net, says, PC manuacturers want to keep the same price points and proit margins, and I think that's the biggest hurdle in growing Internet users.` 1he lack o demand may then be because the household does not hae a PC, i not a plain lack o interest or the Internet.
Slow connections. A major complaint among broadband subscribers is that the actual speed is much lower than what has been adertised. Bandwidth quality depends on a lot o actors.
One is the last mile technology used - cable, DSL, iber optic, wireless, satellite. 1he last mile reers to the inal line to end users. Lach o these technologies has its own speed capacity. Download and upload speed may also dier. 1hen, as in the case o cable, bandwidth may be shared, not dedicated, thus reducing speed as more subscribers sign up. Second is the international connection o the access proider. 1he more the number o and the more redundant the connections and the higher the total bandwidth o its international gateway help speed up the end user Internet experience. low the serice proider proisions bandwidth to its subscribers also is a actor. 1hen, there is the act that the Internet is simply a network o networks. 1he \eb site being accessed may be diicult to access, or one. 1here are just so many things to consider. Just as dial-up connections cannot reach their maximum capacity, so does broadband access. Perhaps, the carriers and access proiders are simply to blame or the alse promises and high expectations set by their incredible ads.
Poor service. 1o add insult to injury, serice and technical support leae much to be desired. It`s not uncommon to ind mailing lists and discussion boards dedicated to dissing a particular broadband endor, such as PLD1, Globe, and Destiny. 1he latter in act has inspired` a couple o parody sites. Complaints about serice range rom a lack o response and lack o knowledgeable personnel to rude tech support and ery slow rollout. I it`s any consolation to the access proiders, they`re not alone. It`s the same case in countries like the U.S. 1his is not surprising or new technology rollouts. Just remember how eery text maniac was cursing Globe or poor serice. Now, all is ,almost, orgotten. And to the proiders` credit, they do take action once the complaints snowball, by adding to their capacity, improing their network, training their people, and oering rebates.
Dominance of PLD1. 1hen there`s still the long shadow o PLD1. 1he 800- pound gorilla has its hands on almost all broadband technologies - ISDN, leased lines, iber optic, DSL, cable, and satellite. It bought ISP Inocom as well as cable 1V operator lome Cable and had it merged with SkyCable, owns satellite proider Mabuhay Satellite, and operates PLD1 myDSL.
1he latter`s introduction elicited an uproar among narrowband ISPs, which complained that PLD1 oered 256kbps DSL or only P2,000 a month compared to the approximately P50,000 a month charged by ISPs or 64kbps. Some hae accused the behemoth o undercutting its competitors to kill o the small ISPs.
Broadband in general is expected to cannibalize dial-up eentually as aailability widens and charges decrease. Says Paraz, I think dialup will die in areas where broadband is aordable, but only i broadband goes down to the less than P1,000 price point. Right now, only power users and businesses can justiy the more than P2,000 pricing o broadband. 1o be competitie, I think non-telco ISP's need to work on non-access products and serices such as consulting and thinking o the next new thing.`
le adds, I think the new players are innoating but the incumbents are catching up in serice oering or een looking into buying into new technology. 1echnically, the incumbents are at an adantage since they already hae some inrastructure aailable.`
Competing access proiders seem not to be anxious. Corros says ISPs like Moscom can remain competitie by proiding good customer serice which telcos are ery poor in ,and proide, content and alue-added serices.`
Jonathan Lee, Marketing Manager o Meridian 1elekoms, an alternatie access proider, maintains that they hae an adantage oer incumbent telcos ava narrowband ISPs, `\e own our own network. Getting to the last mile connection is diicult or them. \e hae our own connection. \e`re in total control o our network, we can guarantee its perormance, unlike ISPs. Beyond the pricing, reliable serice is something we can proide. ,As or incumbent carriers,, they tend to ignore other places they don`t bother to reach. 1he majority o our clients are signing up because they are disappointed with the telcos ,with regards to, up time, tech support serice, and wireline solutions they not able to delier.`
Joey de Belen, VP or Sales & Marketing o Bell 1elecom, a ull-serice telco, says, `\hat we concentrate on is not to gie a dial tone to eery lilipino. Our ision is to be the premier business communications proider. Our number o customers won`t be the same as PLD1 haing millions o customers. \e`ll be satisied with the broadband customer base. \e won`t be competing head on with PLD1 or Globe. 1hat`s not our game.`
le explains that Belltel`s positioning is nationwide and broadband, as opposed to just the CBDs ,central business districts, and narrowband, which is the strategy o competing proiders. le adds an adantage oer ISPs, \e are a low-cost producer, we can compete in alue and price, we can go directly international where we`ll be getting better rates.`
Regulatory restrictions. Much as the 1elecommunications Act has helped the industry, there is still plenty o room or improement. New bills pending in Congress can help sole these problems.
One problem area is the issue o Voice oer IP ,VoIP,, which the N1C ruled cannot be oered by non-telcos. 1he ability to make oice calls, including the expensie oerseas calls, oer the Internet can aect the reenue stream o incumbent telcos like PLD1.
1he law that requires telcos to sere only certain geographical areas, including unproitable ones, in the iew o proiding access to unsered areas, can also be limiting. 1he diiculty o getting a license to operate nationwide is a major headache.
Also, telcos cannot oer broadcasting serices and cable operators cannot oer telecommununications serices under the law. 1here`s also a cap on oreign ownership. Such legal and regulatory restrictions are proing to be limiting the growth o broadband.
Paraz says there`s need or real deregulation, such as permitting non- telcos to operate broadband inrastructure, especially wireless.`
Lee concurs that speciic legislation like legalizing VoIP will boost the use ,o broadband,, maybe opening it up more a bit. Another thing is aailability. It`s heaily ocused in Metro Manila.`
Lack of profits. In the end, it`s all about the bottomline. Right now, the broadband proiders are not making any money rom their expensie inestment. It`s sae to assume that no company has yet to make a proit on their broadband serices.
De Belen mentions another problem, I think there are too many players. 1his results to price aberrations that`s not beneicial to anybody, including customers.`
Prospects of Broadband t could be just a matter o time beore we iron out these problems. Bandwidth costs will eentually go down. Competition will heat up and drie prices south. Inrastructure and serice will improe. As urban areas begin to be saturated, outlying areas will start to be sericed. New laws beneiting the market will be passed. lopeully, the economy picks up and our leaders get their acts together, adding to the middle class and increasing our purchasing power. Prices or PC continue to decrease and more people can aord them. Mobile broadband will become ubiquitous and reach more cellphone-loing lilipinos. 1elcos and ISPs recoup their inestments. Ideally.
I you are a small business owner, heading your company`s IS department, or a home user wondering what broadband technology to aail o, you need to look at the current trends.
Right now, cable has the edge. According to IDC Philippines, there are as o end o 2000, 8.5 thousand cable Internet subscribers, compared to 300 or DSL and 200 or ixed wireless. It`s the same trend worldwide.
Paraz says, I think cable came ahead because o existing cable in the ground or 1V, and also due to the business model. I can't predict the uture access methods because een now, other telcos are coming into the picture.`
Usually, ixed wireless and satellite are deemed appropriate or ar-lung areas, which cable and DSL proiders cannot or would not reach. But in the Philippines, this may not necessarily be case.
Already, alternatie access proiders such as Bell 1elecoms are setting up a hybrid wired and wireline network. Coming in later in the picture, the newer players are not bogged down by legacy networks and can thereore make use o newer, cheaper, more lexible, and easier to deploy technologies such as ixed wireless access.
Lee explains, \e ind ourseles competing with leased line, rame relay, DSL, and cable. lor corporate, it`s ixed wireless. I you`re within the city, it`s pointless to use satellite. lixed wireless is ar more eicient. Cable and DSL are running on public networks, and are heaily subscribed. Ours is like a leased I line and dedicated solution, but more lexible and reliable.`
In ten years, it`s possible that iber optic cables can een reach homes. Plus, newer technologies will be introduced that would urther drie down costs and increase bandwidth capacity.
In the meantime, the dominant last-mile technologies are cable and DSL. Cable will dominate in urban areas, particularly in residential areas. DSL will do well in business districts.
1o be realistic, the Philippines will not reach the take-up rates o South Korea, long Kong, or Singapore. Says Lee, 1heir inrastructure is ery good. \e`re an archipelago, that alone is a big problem. In Metro Manila, the quality o oice lines is poor. Plus in Korea, there`s a high demand. 1hey say it`s built-in among Koreans to be impatient. lere, anything aboe 64kbps is broadband.`
Let`s get straight to the point: \ill broadband succeed here \es, eentually. It`s ineitable. 1he arious political, regulatory, economic, and technical problems notwithstanding, it is really just a matter o time beore high-speed, always-on, ubiquitous, and inisible Internet access becomes a reality that we will just take or granted. On two qualiications: the goernment continues to push or it and consumers ind a good use or it.
\here are the telcos and ISPs, you ask As important as they are in this equation, they will not be the ones to drie the growth o broadband. It`s goernment that will use the stick and consumers that will oer the carrot to drie this proerbial horse ,or carabao or that matter, to moe.
Consider the local state o telecommunications. In 1989, there were just 500 thousand installed telephone lines or a population o 60 million, in 2000, it was about million. In 1995, there was just 1 alue-added serice proider ,VAS,, there was close to 200 in 2000. In 1989, there was a handul o cell phone subscribers ,cell phones the size o a brick at that,, in 2000, 6.5 million own mobile phones, some o which are smaller than your palm.
1he number o players has signiicantly increased as well. 1he telecommunications industry is diided into the ollowing areas: Local Lxchange Carriers ,LLC,, Inter-Lxchange Carriers ,IXC,, International Carriers or International Gateway lacility ,IGl,, Cellular Mobile 1elephone System ,CM1S,, Paging, Mobile Radio Communication Systems, Record Carrier Serice or 1elex,1elegraph, Public 1runk Repeater Serice, Sattelite Serice, Very Small Aperture 1erminal ,VSA1,, Value-Added Serice ,VAS,, among others.
At the end o 2000, the country had 6 LLCs, 11 IGls, 5 CM1S proiders, 15 paging companies, 10 trunked mobile radio serice proiders, 11 international and domestic record carriers, 8 satellite and VSA1 operators, and 156 VAS proiders, including ISPs.
Not bad considering that beore 1989, only PLD1 proided the country`s telecommunications needs. Or did not proide or that matter. Ater 60 years in operation, it managed to install less than a million phone lines, with close to another million in backlog applications.
1his growth did not happen because o the beneolence o PLD1. 1his growth was compelled by the national goernment, through new laws and strict regulation. And it is this same actor that will propel broadband growth.
1he Stick he policies introduced by the Aquino and Ramos administrations in the late eighties and early nineties orm the basis o the legal and regulatory enironment that has spurred the dramatic growth o telecommunications in the country and at the same is hindering the widespread adoption o conergent technologies.
1he pertinent policies include 1he Public 1elecommunications Policy Act, or RA 925, in 1995, reinorced by two Lxecutie Orders ,LO,: LO59, which mandated compulsory interconnection o all authorized public telecommunications carriers, and LO 109, which required LLCs to install 1 line in a rural area or eery 10 installed in an urban area, IGl proiders to install 300 thousand lines, and CM1S irms to install 400 thousand lines, all in ie years.
1he serice area scheme was also introduced. 1he Philippines was diided into 11 geographic areas distributed among 8 telecommunications carriers. 1he idea was to proide uniersal access by orcing proiders to serice both proitable and unproitable areas.
1he result: a growth in telephone density rom 1.1 ,phones per 100 people, in 1992 to 9.05 in 2000. 1hat`s an aerage growth o around 5 a year.
loreign ownership is another releant policy. According to the 198 Constitution, in telecommunications, oreign entities can own up to a 40 stake, allowing the entry o N11, Sing1el, Deutsche 1elekom, among others in the country. loweer, the broadcasting industry, including cable 1V operators, is required by law to hae 100 lilipino- ownership.
1here`s also the Satellite Communications Policy that paed the way to a satellite- based telecommunications industry. New policies were then introduced in 199 to deelop the cable 1V industry. Other reorms and economic incenties were introduced to attract inestment in the arious sectors o the telecommunications and broadcast industries.
1he goernment agency tasked to regulate the industry is the National 1elecommunications Commission ,N1C, under the Department o 1ransportation and Communications ,DO1C,.
\hat is wrong then with the existing regulatory ramework i it worked quite well in a little more than 6 years One word: conergence. And it is broadband that paes the way to this new order. 1he lines among telephony, broadcasting, and the Internet are blurring. Cable, wireless, copper wire, satellite, and other technologies are now capable o deliering oice, data, and ideo simultaneously. 1hat means cable companies can allow their customers to make oice calls and telcos are now capable o oering ideo content to their subscribers.
In this changing technological landscape, the old policies and setup become increasingly outdated. lor instance, it has long been a bone o contention which executie department - DOS1, DO1C, or D1I - is responsible or certain IC1 policies and actiities, particularly those related to the Internet. Obiously, there is oerlapping and redundancy.
1here is also a question on where cable 1V should all under - broadcast or telecommunications. An issue like oice- oer-IP ,VoIP, remains unclear whether 1 non-telco carriers, e.g. ISPs and cable companies, are allowed to proide such serice. Ditto or ideo-on-demand ,VoD, or non-broadcast irms, such as telcos.
1he serice area scheme is likewise being reconsidered. Requiring proiders to set up their inrastructure in unsered and undersered areas that may not be proitable can lead them to charge higher margins on premium serices to subsidize their costs in unproitable areas, thus contributing to the slow business and consumer adoption o broadband serices in urban areas.
Other hot issues include oreign ownership. 1here are pressing calls to increase the 40 cap on telcos and debates among cable 1V operators on allowing oreign ownership at all. Len the mere deinition o cable 1V needed to be clariied.
It`s a matter o time beore electric utilities and proprietary networks start oering broadband, urther blurring conentional deinitions o broadband access.
Central to the Arroyo administration`s IC1 agenda is the proposal or a Conergence Law, which includes the creation o a Department o Inormation and Communications 1echnology ,DIC1,, preiously proposed by ormer Congressman Leandro Verceles, a long- time I1 maerick.
1his challenge or drating a bill has been taken up by Digital Philippines, the priate sector group o I1LCC ,Inormation 1echnology and L- Commerce Council,, the goernment`s IC1 policy-making group, which President Arroyo has since taken hold o as Chairman, as well as a handul o solons, namely Representaties lrank Perez, Monico Puenteella, Joseph Santiago, Ma. 1heresa Deensor, Jacinto Paras, and Roberto Cajes. All are still under deliberation.
Bills related to the cable 1V industry hae also been submitted by Speaker o the louse Jose de Venecia, Jurdin Jesus Romualdo, Roseller Barinaga, Jacinto Paras, and Joseph Santiago. Meanwhile, apart rom some obsessie Internet porn- related bills and widely-criticized serice area scheme or ISPs proposed in the Senate, there`s ery little actiity related to the President`s proposals, busy as the senators are currently with their Senate coup. 1he recent telecommunications scandal reoling around the proposal o a telecommunications clearinghouse, with its bribery accusations and all, urther hampers progress.
1he Medium-1erm Philippine Deelopment Plan ,M1PDP, or 2001- 2004 also places inormation and communications technology ,IC1, as one o the country`s driers or growth. It listed 11 priority points on the legislatie agenda, including some related to telecommunications and broadband inrastructure. In particular, the goernment seeks to amend RA 925, or the Public 1elecommunications Act, to address conergence and uniersal access issues, add more muscle to the N1C, rationalize cable teleision operations to make them part o telecommunications and not broadcast media, promote Internet uniersal access and liberalization, and split the DO1C into a DIC1. 1he I1LCC`s action plan called ISP.com put into details the country`s IC1 strategy, mirroring the goernment`s program.
Despite the good intention, clear-cut agenda, and preliminary actiity, the national goernment has been marked by a lot o talk and not enough action. Summits, meetings, drats, and papers abound, all seemingly parroting the same recommendations. I eeryone basically agrees with what needs to be done, why isn`t much being done already
More pressure obiously needs to be exerted on our legislators, and here, industry organizations including, and perhaps especially, consumer groups are crucial in lobbying or bills that beneit the industry as a whole.
lor broadband access to really take o, it requires the irm commitment o goernment to spur competition, not just among players within the same technology network but also among competing networks
Strictly monitoring their compliance to their license requirements, proiding incenties, compelling incumbents to unbundle their networks to new entrants, and making strong-willed decisions on gray areas go hand-in-hand with the legislatie agenda. As an OLCD ,Organization or Lconomic Cooperation and Deelopment, report concludes, the most undamental policy aailable to OLCD goernments to boost broadband access is inrastructure competition`, ollowed by opening up network elements o players in dominant positions to competitie orces`, and open access to cable networks, where it is warranted by market conditions`.
1he Carrot introducing legislation and policies that relect a new, conergent world and encouraging market competition answer the supply side o the equation, does demand naturally ollow
I, say, broadband Internet access alls below the P500 leel, will consumers bite It`s likely a good part o the existing Internet subscriber base o 2 to 3 million or so will. Add to that the more than 1 million cable 1V subscriber base and you hae a potential gold mine. O course, it will take a good while beore that happens. IDC Philippines projects only 80 thousand broadband subscribers by 2005. Not surprising i prices remain at the P2,000 leel and up and with poor serice perormance at that.
Outside the current market or Internet and cable 1V, will potential new users buy into it I a head o a household or owner o a small business neer considered eer getting a dial-up Internet connection or the past six years, aside rom the price actor, what will make him get one
Right now, we hae a hungry market segment that cannot aord broadband access and a much larger segment that has no immediate need or it. I goernment carries the stick, the market holds the carrot. Len i legislation and regulation is irmly in place, priate companies will hae not the incentie still to inest and spend i no one`s buying. 1here`ll be ewer new entrants, meaning less competition and less possibility o driing down prices, which will then lead to ewer customers willing to pay, and the cycle goes on and on.
1he other key actor then has to do with the demand side. \hat will make the dierence is content or applications. \hat the broadband Internet needs are killer apps.
1hink cell phones. \hile the LOs o Ramos paed the way or competition ,helped in no small part by the rapid change in technology,, it was SMS - the killer app - that droe demand to phenomenal leels.
I 1his is what the broadband Internet needs. Already, there are applications being oered that take adantage o the bigger bandwidth - ideo-on-demand, irtual priate networks, and ideo conerencing, to name a ew.
But the Asian and Philippine markets hae unique needs, akin more to Luropean markets than American. Most likely, entertainment and communication applications will drie adoption, not business or inancial.
One possible hit: online gaming. Internet caes hae been around or quite some time, but LAN and gaming caes made this new hybrid a category killer. But will broadband to the home eer ind a mass market like mobile phones had Not until prices or PCs and modems become dirt cheap, or until new, simpler, and cheaper deices that access the Net lood the market.
O course, the cost to broadband proiders should also be taken into account. Gien our high requirements or international bandwidth ,there`s relatiely little traic circulating nationally than traic going to the U.S. sites,, proiders are also hindered by this. But the trend is decreasing charges, the ineitable conclusion then is that sooner rather than later, their own costs to proiding bandwidth will also go down. As lortune magazine reported, in the past two years, transpaciic-bandwidth prices hae allen by 50.`One megabit o bandwidth between 1okyo and long Kong is now just >130,000 per month, rom >00,000 a year beore. 155 megabits is down >1.8 million rom >4 million last year.
Lower prices must come hand in hand with killer apps. So ar, despite its promise, online gaming and entertainment haen`t drien widespread adoption in the residential market. SMLs are also not jumping into it in droes as well. More content and applications must be introduced and capture consumer and business interest beore broadband takes o - ideo-on-demand, ideoconerencing, oice-oer-IP, distance learning, maybe een online game shows.
In sum, goernment action will create competition. More competition will lead to lower prices. Lower prices and new applications will create the demand. A boom in demand will lead to more competition, and so on.
1he Goal nother way to decrease the price o broadband access is or goernment to subsidize part o the cost. And one way to increase demand is or goernment to create content and applications or broadband.
But should goernment take an actie role other than introducing industry-riendly policies and legislation and monitoring licensed operators lor that matter, should the goernment aim or uniersal broadband access
1here are no easy answers. Right now, there is a moe towards reducing our budget deicit through taxes and spending cuts, and buying bandwidth to sere rural communities is obiously not in the goernment`s priority list.
lorcing telcos to install phone lines in unsered areas worked wonders, perhaps adopting a similar proision in the proposed Conergence Law requiring new entrants to roll-out broadband access in rural areas along with urban zones will do just as well in spreading broadband aailability. A
loweer, market take-up is an altogether dierent matter, particularly in rural areas. Uniersal broadband access may not be the best idea at this point. 1here are more basic inormation and communications needs that should be prioritized, such as a telephone and een teleision in eery baravga,. lence, the goernment`s telecenter project looks like a wise moe.
I there`s one area the goernment should consider paying or is proiding broadband access to public schools. lere, there is an obious use and applications or broadband and it is one sector that broadband proiders will shun.
1he goernment-wide mandate to wire all its oices is also a step towards the right direction. Goernment agencies such as the BIR and L1O are increasing their computerization and Internet eorts. Slowly migrating to online applications will help in creating use and demand or broadband.
In other words, the goernment`s ideal role is to increase competition in areas that hae a built-in demand or broadband, proide access in areas that actually need it but will not be sered by priate corporations, and take the lead in using broadband applications.
1hese are the issues that need to be raised. 1he Philippines ought to look at success stories such as South Korea to learn its own lessons. I it`s any consolation, it seems een the U.S. is bogged down by the same obstacles we are haing - incumbent telcos strongly lobbying or their interests, slow roll-out, poor serice, imperect laws. I we do this right, we might een surprise ourseles.
Sidebar: 1imeline: A brief history of communications in the Philippines
1920s: Dollarado, a ship-to-shore radio and telegraph company, was incorporated, later renamed Globe \ireless Limited ,G\L,, great grandather to Globe 1elecom.
1924: Radio Corporation o America was born, later became PhilCom Corp.
Noember 28, 1928: Philippine Long Distance Company was ounded. Its charter extends to year 2028. 1he company is authorized to proide just about eery type o telecommunications serice.
1930: G\L merged with Philippine \ireless, Inc. and Claecilla Radio Systems to orm Globe-Mackay Cable and Radio Corporation ,GMCR,.
194: 1he 1elecommunications Oice was created under Republic Act 51. 1he Oice proides telegraph, telephone, telegraphic transer, and social telegram serices throughout the country.
1969: lirst cable teleision system ,CA1V, was established in Baguio.
194: GMCR sold 60 o its stocks to Ayala and Co.
19: Sining Makulay, Inc. was gien an exclusie ranchise to operate a CA1V nationwide or 25 years.
June 198: President Aquino promulgated Lxecutie Order 205, ending Sining Makulay`s monopoly and opening up the cable industry to competition.
lebruary 1990: 1he Municipal 1elephone Projects Oice was created through Republic Act 6849. 1he Oice sees to the installation and operation o public calling oices in each municipality in the Philippines.
1990s: GMCR merged with CRS to orm GMCR, Inc., later renamed Globe 1elecom.
1990: Isla Communications Co. Inc. ,Islacom, was authorized to deelop a ull-serice telecommunications network in the Philippines.
lebruary 24, 1993: President lidel V. Ramos issued Lxecutie Order 59 mandating compulsory interconnection o all authorized public telecommunications carriers to create a uniersally accessible and ully integrated nationwide telecommunications network.
July 12, 1993: Lxecutie Order 109 sought improement o local exchange serices in both urban and rural areas. lor eery 10 lines installed in an urban area, 1 line was to be installed in a rural area. IGl proiders were required to install a total o 300,000 lines while CM1S proiders were required to install a total o 400,000 lines, within ie years.
October 1993: Bayan 1elecommunications loldings Corporation ,Bayantel, was established.
1994: 1he Cable Policy Act was drated.
1994: Digital 1elecommunications, Inc. ,Digitel, was granted a ranchise to proide domestic and international telecommunications serices.
lebruary 20, 1995: Republic Act 925, the Public 1elecommunications Policy Act was passed.
199: Bell 1elecommunications was granted license as a ull-serice telco.
1998: lirst Paciic o long Kong bought 1.2 o PLD1's stock to gain a controlling interest in the company. lirst Paciic ailiate Smart became a PLD1 subsidiary. PLD1 now has Smart, Piltel, L1PI, and Philcom.
September 1999: PLD1 ties up with N11 Communications o Japan.
1999: PLD1 bought ISP Inocom 1echnologies and cable 1V serice proider lome Cable.
2000: Ayala Corporation, Singapore 1elecom International Pte. Ltd. ,S1I,, Asiacom Philippines, and De1eAsia lolding Gmbl ,a subsidiary o Deutsche 1elekom AG, joined orces. Globe also bought Islacom.
August 2000: PLD1 incorporated ePLD1 to include all its Internet, e-commerce, call center, and multimedia entures.
August 8, 2000: Meridian 1elekoms was launched.
September 2000: Smart exceeds 2 million subscribers.
Noember 2000: PLD1 rolls out DSL.
lebruary 2001: Digitel entered into a joint enture with Asia Global Crossing and the Broadband Inrastructure Group to orm Digitel Crossing to lay a iber optic backhaul network in the Philippines.
Sidebar: 1he Broadband Players
1HL 1LLLCOMMUNICA1IONS CARRILRS
PD1 1echnology: wireless, cable, satellite, DSL Key stockholders: lirst Paciic, N11 Key ailliates: Smart Communications, Piltel, ePLD1, Inocom, lome Cable, AceS, Mabuhay Satellite Network: I-Gate ,155Mbps bandwidth,, Asian Internet Network ,AIN,, Domestic liber Optic Network ,DlON,, Asia- Paciic Cable Network ,ACPN2, Product lines: Internet gateway serice, Philippine Internet exchange ,PhIX,, rame relay, A1M, IP VPN, leased lines, cable Internet, DSL lees: ,or cable Internet, P1,650 or installation, P1,650 monthly charge, P330 or modem rental, ,or residential DSL, P1,500 or installation, P2,000-P2,500 monthly charge Strengths: Still the dominant telco in the country with a strong conergence strategy, practically coering all broadband serices, has biggest international bandwidth. \eaknesses: Burdened with debt sericing, which made it postpone its acquisition o GMA Network, the last piece o its conergence puzzle, widely criticized when it irst rolled out DSL serice. \eb sites: www.pldt.com.ph, www.epldt.com, www.now.com.ph, www.ino.com.ph
a,av 1etecovvvvicatiov., vc. 1echnology: cable, DSL Key stockholders: Lopezes, Verizon Key ailliates: Sky Vision Corporation ,Sky Internet, ZPDee,, RCPI, eLopez Product lines: cable Internet, DSL, leased lines, rame relay lees: ,or cable Internet, P1,000 or installation, P1,00-P10,000 monthly charge ,depending on megabytes downloaded, Strengths: Can leerage dierent serices as it has done with its lusion integrated billing scheme. \eaknesses: Bayantel is struggling with debt and with problematic Lxtelcom. \eb sites: www.benpres-holdings.com, www.bayantel.com.ph, www.zpdee.net
Ctobe 1etecov 1echnology: DSL Key stockholders: Ayala Corp, Sing1el, Deutsche 1elekom Key ailliates: GlobeNet, Globe Data Network: MSDDN ,Multi-Serice Digital Data Network,, National 1ransmission Network ,N1N, Back Globe landyPhone's Digital Cellsites, GlobeLines lixed Network Inrastructure, Very Small Aperture 1erminal ,VSA1, Network Product lines: DSL, leased lines, Globe Internet Lxchange ,GlobeIX,, rame relay, A1M lees: ,or DSL, >500 or one-time charge, >665->1,945 monthly charge Strengths: Strong wireless market, uses SDSL, not ADSL like competitors. \eaknesses: Inested mainly in ixed wireline and wireless, though known more or wireless business, does not hae breadth o PLD1, concentrated on business sector. \eb sites: www.globe.com.ph, www.globenet.com.ph, www.globedata.com.ph
Lastern 1elecommunications Philippines, Inc. 1echnology: DSL Key stockholders: PRN Philippines, Inc., Australian Gigahertz Network, Inc. ,AGN, Network: metrowide iber optic network distribution backbone that uses all- Internet Protocol ,IP, that results into high perormance connections to the wider Internet ia C&\ USA, Concert ,A1&1 and B1, and UUNL1 or the U.S. and Luropean access and PCC\ lK1 or the Asian region, Internet capacity o 100 Mbps Product lines: DSL, Manila Internet eXchange ,MIX,, leased lines, ISDN, rame relay Strengths: Pioneered DSL, has one o the biggest international bandwidth, targets ISPs, only proider with iber-optic network running gigabit Lthernet. \eaknesses: last-changing ownership. \eb site: www.etpi.com
Pbitiive Ctobat Covvvvicatiov., vc. 1echnology: DSL Key stockholders: APC Group o Companies Network: redundant international links with Border Gateway Protocol routing that runs on L1 connectiity ,2Mbps bandwidth,, Product lines: DSL, rame relay, leased lines, ISDN Strengths: Strong subscriber base in Mindanao. \eaknesses: \eak market position, coming rom dormant ISP business, relies on alliances such as with cable companies to oer serices. \eb site: www.philcom.com
Digitat 1etecovvvvicatiov., vc. 1echnology: DSL Key stockholders: JG Summit loldings, Inc., 1elia AB o Sweden Key ailiate: Digitelone Network: Luzon-wide "backbone" transmission system consisting o radio stations and iber optic cables, a transit exchange with interconnections with other operators in Metro Manila and an international gateway acility ,IGl,, made up o two IGl switches located in Binalonan, Pangasinan and in Quezon City, which proides instant connectiity to more than 200 international destination, owns submarine cable capacities in the 1rans-Paciic Cable-5 ,1PC-5,, the Asia-Paciic Cable Network ,APCN,, and the Southeast Asia-Middle Last-\estern Lurope ,SLA-ML-\L, cable systems. It also purchased capacities rom the China-United States cable systems and the Guam-Philippines cable systems. Product lines: DSL, rame relay, leased line lees: ,or DSL, P2,000 or installation, P8,500-P40,000 monthly charge Strengths: Largest telecom serice proider in Luzon outside Metro Manila, continues to expand network and quick to add new serices. \eaknesses: las interconnection headaches with Globe and Smart. \eb site: www.digitelone.com
ett 1etecovvvvicatiov., vc. 1echnology: ixed wireless Key stockholders: Puyat-Reyes, Ortigas, Madrigal-Bayot and Maramba Network: wireless core network has a iber optic backbone or total reliability, Very Small Aperture 1erminal technology is used to connect to the Bell1el core network Product lines: ixed wireless broadband, leased line, VSA1 Strengths: Comprehensie license allows it to proide aried serices nationwide, new entry means it was able to skip older technologies and jump ahead with a cheaper and more lexible inrastructure. \eaknesses: lixed wireless is a more expensie and less popular option or broadband. \eb site: www.belltel.ph
Pbitiive Covvvvicatiov. atettite Cororatiov 1echnology: satellite Network: lreedomIP broadband VSA1 network comprises an Andrew .3-meter earth station central hub node at Pinugay, with a Network Management System near Manila, and 120 broadband VSA1 earth stations located throughout the Philippines Product lines: VSA1 Strengths: Pioneer in satellite communications, quite actie in signing up clients and partners. \eaknesses: Beset with controersies. \eb site: www.philcomsat.com.ph
Pbitiive 1etegrab c 1etebove Cororatiov Key stockholders: Republic 1elecommunications, Inc., Korea 1elecoms Network: Lake Ring iber optic network expected to hae the capacity to transmit 2.5 gigabits o data per second to customers in Metro Manila, Laguna, and Rizal Strengths: Set to modernize its inrastructure and calling stations into e- stations. \eaknesses: Still looking or inancing or its capital expenditures, debt-ridden. \eb site: www.pttphilippines.com
1HL BROADBAND ISPS
Destiny, Inc. 1echnology: cable, satellite Key stockholders: Solid Group, Inc. Key ailliates: Destiny Satellite Network: hybrid iber coaxial ,llC,, 50Mhz two-way transmission bandwidth, uses the distribution hub and iber node network design, Destiny Satellite operates the ranchise o Domestic Satellite Phils., Inc. ,DOMSA1, Product lines: cable Internet, broadcast uplink, VSA1, ISA1, leased lines, VPN lees: ,or cable Internet, P2,000 or installation, P1,980 or monthly charge, P380 or modem rental Strengths: 1he country's irst cable inrastructure that was built entirely to be completely ready or cable teleision, Internet access and data serices including irtual priate networks and leased line serices. Can leerage on current cable 1V subscribers. \eaknesses: Suered wide criticism when it irst launched its cable Internet serice or poor serice perormance. \eb site: www.mydestiny.net
Ove1irtvat Cororatiov 1echnology: satellite Key stockholders: Mel Velarde, lund or Assistance to Priate Lducation,LCC Lducation Capital Corporation Network: two-way satellite, linked ia Panamsat 8 satellite Strengths: lirst in Asia to launch two-way satellite Internet serice, targets the education niche market and cable 1V operators. \eaknesses: May need a resh inusion o capital or uture growth. \eb site: www.oneirtual.com
PhilSat/We are I1 Phils., Inc. 1echnology: satellite Network: reseller o lughes Network Systems Inc.`s DirectPC \eb site: www.philsat.com
Multimedia 1elephony, Inc./Broadband Philippines 1echnology: ixed wireless Key stockholders: Jose Perez de Venecia III, Callahan Associates International ,CAI,, Ldward P. Bass Group, Angelo, Gordon & Co. LP, Inestcorp, Next Century Partners Network: wireless microwae transmission, LMDS ,Local Multipoint Distribution Systems, network Product lines: ixed wireless broadband access, bandwidth on demand Strengths: lirst to rollout wireless broadband network in Asia. 1argeting oice building niche. \as quick in shiting rom the paging business ,Index, to broadband. \eaknesses: Lconomic conditions and slow take-up orced company to cut down its capex and targets ,100 buildings rom 150,. \eb site: www.broadbandphilippines.com
Meridian 1elekoms, Inc. 1echnology: ixed wireless Key stockholders: Victor Villaicencio, Jose Baltazar, Micro-D International, Inc.
Network: back-bone, last mile links and direct connections to the US Internet back-bone, ixed wireless serice uses base stations called MAN sites Product lines: ixed wireless broadband access Strengths: lirst Internet telecommunications company. \eaknesses: las controersial owners, Vic-Vic Villaicencio o 1riple-V, and Micro-D`s Myla Villanuea, daughter o controersial businessman Mark Jimenez. \eb site: www.meridiantelekoms.com
iaebar: P,ravia rav/ivg. 1hings are not so bad. I only to stress the point o the importance o goernment, this research shows that there`s hope yet or our country.
1ier 1: ligh Potential 1ier 2: Moderate Potential 1ier 1: Low Potential 1. Sout h Kore a 2. Japa n 3. lon g Kon g 4. Sing apor e 5. 1aiw an 6. 1he Phil ippi nes . Mal aysi a 8. 1ha ilan d 9. Indi a 10. Chin a 11. Indo nesia Source: Pyramid Research www.pyramidresearch.com
1ier J 1he rankings produced interesting results and a ew surprises. Among irst-tier countries, long Kong was ranked higher than Singapore. long Kong ared slightly better in terms o broadband regulatory enironment and inrastructure. Both Singapore Cable Vision`s monopoly and Sing1el`s remaining dominance o the international capacity market hurt Singapore in the rankings.
1ier 2 Despite Malaysia`s eorts to become a high-tech hub within Asia, the Philippines was rated higher, although only slightly ,by 0.5 point,. 1he decisie actor was regulations goerning broadband serices. 1he Philippines has a ery progressie regulatory enironment that is promoting early market maturation. Operators are using multiple technologies to delier serices, a market characteristic typical o top-tier countries such as Korea. Poor inrastructure has relegated both the Philippines and Malaysia to the second tier, howeer.
1ier 3 \ithin the third tier, India barely outranked China ,by 0.05 point, because o China`s limited competition in the traditional serices sector. China 1elecom dominates the market, and there is little room or competitie players. China rated higher or inrastructure, howeer, due to a larger CA1V network and better backbone acilities. Greater market liberalisation would thereore be more eectie in China than India, where inrastructure is lacking. Nonetheless, India rated higher or broadband potential because it has a relatiely more competitie market or traditional and broadband serices.