ThiefRiverWatershed

HydrologicalSimulationProgram FORTRAN(HSPF)Modeling
ThiefRiverWatershedWRPPStakeholderMeeting February20,2013

StephanieJohnson,Ph.D.,P.E.

ScopeofWork
DevelopamodeloftheThiefRiverwatershed
Address:hydrology,sediment,andconventionalpollutants

Uselocaldataasmuchaspossible;supplement withstate/federaldata ModeloutcomesusedtoinformPhaseIIofWRPP work

Work with RLWD to fully integrate model into WRPP project

WhyModel?
Simulatecurrentconditions
Extendunderstandingof waterquality (spatially/temporally) Estimateloadsatungauged locations

Predictfutureconditions
Estimateimpactsofwhatifscenariosonwaterquality throughoutthestudyarea

BridgePhaseIoftheWRPPworkwithPhaseII
i.e.,bridgedatacollectionwithdevelopingrestoration/ protectionstrategies

HydrologicalSimulationProgram FORTRAN(HSPF)
DevelopedandsupportedbyUSGS/EPA CommonlyusedinTMDL/waterqualityanalyses Basinscale,continuoustimemodel Runsatanhourlytimestep;thoughinterpreted onlongerscale Cansimulateexistingandfutureconditions Dataintensive/complexmodelwithmultiple components

BasicModelInputs
Inputs: Hydrography Digital elevation model Weather data Soil properties Land cover

ModelingBase
87subbasins 7weatherstations
precipitation,solar radiation,windspeed,air temperature,cloudcover, evaporation,dewpoint temperature

6majorreservoirs 2wastewatertreatment plants Modeltimeframe:1/1/1995 12/31/2006

Warmupperiod:1995 Calibration:19962000 Validation:20012006

ModelOutputs
Foreachsubbasin
Yieldofwater,sediment,nutrients

Foreachreach
In:flow,sedimentload,nutrientload,etc. Out:flow,sedimentload,nutrientload,etc.

Foreachwaterbody/reservoir
In:flow,sedimentload,nutrientload,etc. Out:flow,sedimentload,nutrientload,etc. Internal:volume

Calibration
Calibration the process of modifying the input parameters to a model until the output from the model matches an observed set of data (i.e., the model reflects real world conditions).

USGSStation: 05076000 ThiefRivernear ThiefRiverFalls,MN

CalibratingHydrology
ThiefRiverFallsUSGSGaugeStation

Calibrated

Early attempt

ValidatingHydrology
Validation the process of verifying the model by comparing its output to observed data during a time period other than that used for calibration.

WaterQuality
Sedimentcalibration:Spring2013 Waterqualitycalibration:Earlysummer2013
Temperature,nutrients,BOD,dissolvedoxygen,andalgae
E.coli,Ammonia

DissolvedOxygen

DissolvedOxygen, Turbidity

DissolvedOxygen

Calibrateat6 waterquality stations

ExampleOutput: Avg SedimentYields

ExampleApplication: BMPEffectiveness

BaseConditions

50FilterStrips

ExampleApplication:
ImpactsofBMPs atWatershedOutlet
Scenario Baseline:Existingconditions(20032008) 1a:50filterstrips 1b:100filterstrips 2min: Minimumag landtopermanentcover 2max: Maximumag landtopermanentcover 3a:Partiallyimplementedsideinlet control 3b:Fullyimplementedsideinlet control Avg Streamflow
(acrefeet/yr)

Avg Avg TP Sediment Load Load(tons/yr) (pounds/yr) 7,640 5,510 4,820 7,350 4,280 5,530 5,400 71,200 41,600 35,300 67,500 59,700 58,500 57,200

175,000 175,000 175,000 175,400 180,000 180,000 180,000

ExampleApplication:
ImpactsofBMPsatThiefRiver enteringANWRfromNorth
Scenario Baseline:Existingconditions(20032008) 1a:50filterstrips 1b:100filterstrips 2min: Minimumag landtopermanentcover 2max: Maximumag landtopermanentcover 3a:Partiallyimplementedsideinlet control 3b:Fullyimplementedsideinlet control Avg Avg TP Sediment Load (acrefeet/yr) Load(tons/yr) (pounds/yr) Avg Streamflow 69,055 69,055 69,055 69,123 70,688 70,848 71,006 2,133 1,353 678 2,116 1,018 858 759 20,545 7,637 4,872 19,813 11,555 11,251 10,948

Summary
UsingHSPFtomodeltheThiefRiver Watershed Finishedwithhydrologycalibration Sedimentandwaterqualitytobecompleted bymidsummer UseinPhaseIIofWRPPto:
Identifyprioritysubbasinsformanagement RunBMPscenarios Designeffectiverestoration/protectionstrategies

Questions

Contactinformation: StephanieJohnson,Ph.D.,P.E. HoustonEngineering,Inc. sjohnson@houstoneng.com 763.493.4522