Continental J.

Information Technology 4: 78 - 89, 2010 Wilolud Journals, 2010

ISSN: 2141 - 4033 http://www.wiloludjournal.com

TRAFFIC MODELING FOR CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF GSM NETWORKS IN NIGERIA Biebuma J.J.,Orakwe S.I and Igbekele O.J Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, University of Portharcourt, Portharcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria. ABSTRACT A precise analysis of mobile users behaviour in terms of mobility and traffic would help to optimize capacity for both circuit and packet switched services. This research work employs the multiplicity of techniques for the capacity analysis of GSM network in Nigeria. Enhanced stochastic knapsack was evaluated for resource sharing approach in multi-services. Erlang Loss Model was adopted for SMS capacity analysis. The offered traffic that is Lost Traffic based was used to dimension the system resources. This was made possible by the characterization of a typical representation of the Northern part of Nigeria. Finally different frequency hopping types were compared, and the novel power based variant DFH was considered for improved spectral efficiency. KEYWORDS: Traffic, Modeling, Multiservice, Knapsack, stochastic, analytical approach INTRODUCTION In spite of large amount of studies about GSM capacity analysis appeared last half decades, a number of issues remain open. The one of the most important issues among them is anticipating the traffic intensity for proper dimensioning of the network, especially for multiservices. Traffic modeling is the critical part of networks modeling, it is the key point on performance evaluation for any communication network. Traffic Model can be grouped into two series, namely, smooth and non smooth model. Smooth traffic model can be divided into two kinds: Short Range Dependence (SRD) and Long Range Dependence (LRD), (Riedi et al, 1997). Construction of a traffic model is the trade off of the following factors: Fitting nature, number of describing parameters and complexity of the parameter evaluation (Gabriel et al, 2004). The advent of Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) has renewed the interest in resource-sharing models with different resources requirements. Due to the non homogeneity of the traffic and the difficulty of its characterization, trunk reservation is used for resource contro (Altman et al, 2001). This work studies such a resource control to derive a traffic model to calculate the number of resources that are required to handle peaks of traffic in the cell while meeting the grade of service requirements. In classical GSM network dimensioning, when there was only one service with an associated blocking rate, Erlang-B Law was a suitable traffic model. Erlang B traffic models have been developed for wire line networks. They predict the aggregate traffic processed by the switches. Unlike a fixed network, a cellular telephone network must support moving customers (Leung et al, 2004). Present GSM network provides mixed services , besides typical voice services, data services and multimedia services are in all kinds. For this reason, Erlang-B Law is no longer suited to traffic modelling in GSM network (Peter, 2009). Enhanced Knapsack is a more suitable multi-service traffic model, finding the system minimal capacity given the requested GoS, reproducing the sharing of resources between different users and different services. In most of the past techniques, it is assumed that the mobile network is homogeneous, the cells in the network are studied one by one with stochastic models therefore simulation is used as the main modeling tool. In recent years, a number of analytical frameworks were developed to obtain more general results and they are much more useful than simulation studies this is because analytic results evaluate network performance under a wide range of conditions (Hong et al, 2006). Firstly, this work examines source, volume and type of data generation by analytical method, then investigates the kind of channel allocation with respect to the frequency hopping types and proposes the best spectral efficiency. Further GoS parameters in the multiservice GSM network are investigated for fairer source allocation in the traffic mix environment. GSM CAPACITY ANALYSIS AS IT RELATES TO NIGERIA High demand of GSM services and limited capacity are major causes for congestion in GSM cellular systems in Nigeria, it is also expected that congestion will continue in every peak usage hours. By congestion, we mean that in some cells, there will be no more capacity left. More specifically, in a congested cell, there will be no more available data channels for use by additional mobile hosts in the cell. However, the control channels for

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signaling (or paging) may still be accessible by all mobile hosts in a congested cell (Kuboye, 2006). The peculiarity in belief, culture, environment, economy, expertise, research and development centre, even the technology itself, and many other factors have also greatly influenced the failure of good cellular service in Nigeria. The performance of GSM communication systems depends significantly on the mobile radio channel. Propagation models predict the average signal strength and its variability at a given distance from the transmitter. Different models exist for different types of environments (e.g., urban and rural) (Shenghui et al, 2007). This is the reason for management of calls blocking between the subscribers due to limited available radio resources, thus increasing the spectral efficiency of GSM cellular system has become a great concern to the GSM Network operators, particularly in Nigeria. The need to tackle the problem of congestion on the GSM network is for the benefit of the operators and users as well as the vendor. This thesis is motivated by this need; the present research offers solution to the above problem. Since Nigeria does not have a technology of her own, all we need do is to adapt the adopted technology into our environment, and by adaptation, you have to be analytical in your approach of data generation and processing, rather than being stochastic. METHODS AND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZATION AND DELINEATION Our approach for characterization was experimented in 6 Northern States: Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno. The BSS captures of 3 BSCs per state were used. The covered areas were now delineated over Yola and Numan which were representatives since they included all the characteristics of a typical Nigeria, as in urban and rural for commercial, residential and highways. Our modelling approach is based on the analysis of the OMCR captured real traffic data and using the RNP optnet software as a statistical tool to characterize the arrival processes and derive distributions to fit the measured data. Opt-net software uses the statistical method of Kolmo-gorov Smirnov (K-S) goodness of fit test, using maximum likelihood estimation to calculate parameters of the fitted distributions (Alcatel, 2007). We monitor the BSS measurements over the radio network servers in order to propose a mobility model that constitutes a systematic way to evaluate the radio performance and customer behaviour in the network. This study is divided into two groups according to the population mobility and traffic characteristics. The graphical outputs of call blocking probability are produced useful for capacity analysis and estimation. The output Erlang is treated as carried load and adapted into the lost and overflow traffic to obtain the offered traffic required for appropriate cell dimensioning. MEASUREMENTS This research work started by capturing the traffic volume in 6 Northern states: Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno. The BSS captures of 3 BSCs per state were used. The traffic intensity in these locations were taken over 24h for 48 weeks, stratified to work days and weekends. The mean hours of the traffic in Erlangs was recorded and plotted. The traffic load, was taken as the carried traffic. Also, the average rate of blocked calls against the generated Erlangs was used to find the Lost Traffic, to enable us formulate the Offered Traffic for accurate cell dimensioning, so as to allow our novel model optimize effectively the resources allotted. The covered areas were now delineated over Yola and Numan which were representatives since they included all the characteristics of a typical Nigeria, as in urban and rural for commercial, residential and highways. This data was carefully plotted on the graphs, as shown in the figs of the measurements below:

Fig.1: Traffic intensity versus the hour of the day ( Yola)

Fig.2: Traffic intensity versus the hour of the day ( Numan)

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Fig.3: Average rate of blocked calls over the hour of the day

Fig.4: New arrival calls over handover calls

Figure 5: Illustrates the relationship between BP with load in (Erl)

Figure 6: Illustrates the relationship between blocking probability and users

Figure 7: illustrates the relationship between the spectral efficiency in (bit/s/Hz) with load

Fig. 8 illustrates the relationship between the spectral efficiency(bit/sec/Hz) and radius (m)

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FIG.9: Spectral efficiency versus number of cell per cluster Multi-service Traffic Model This work develops a traffic model for a GSM network designed to meet heterogeneous service requirements of different applications. For example it is clear that a voice call will require lower service rate than a movie download. In such case, a movie download will belong to a class that require more channels. Many works have been developed on multi-server single-service using M/M/K/K system, but in this work, a multi-service loss model is developed for enhanced Knapsack Traffic model, with special interest in the blocking probability of each class of traffic. Unlike the case with M/M/K/K system where all customers experience the same blocking probability, in this work, customer belonging to different classes experiences different blocking probabilities. Consider a GSM call with 7 channels and assuming that five out of the seven channels are busy. If a customer that requires one channel arrives, it will not be blocked, but if a new arrival, that requires three channels, will be blocked. Therefore, customer that requires more channels will experience a higher blocking probability. Model Description Consider a set of K channels, serving customer belong to I class. Customer from class I require simultaneous S channels and their holding times are assumed exponentially distributed with mean . Class customer arrival arrives according to an independent Poisson process with arrival rate independent of each other, of the arrival processes and of the state of the system. . The holding times are

An admitted class- customer will use S channel for the duration of its mean holding time,

, after all

which S channel are released to serve others. When a class- customer arrives and cannot find S free channel, it is blocked and cleared from the system. The probability that an arriving class- customer is blocked is denoted by B( ). Model Derivation To develop a multiservice Traffic model for an enhanced Knapsack of capacity C, the steady state probability of process is used to satisfy the conditional probability of occurrence of state in Stochastic Knapsack. Now, consider a set of K channels serving customers belong to I classes with traffic intensity each using resources and a knapsack of Capacity C. Letting j = ( , ) represent the possible states of the Knapsack, also consider the steady-state probability distribution of for the case K= Let = Independent uni-dimensioned continuous-time Maxkor chamn (t) = Number of Class customer in the system death rate = (t) Where = 1,2..I. Characterized by the birth rate =

I;

) = steady state probability of process Then ) satisfies the equations:

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i i

(0) = )=

(1) ( + 1) for = 1,2,3

And the normalizing equation: =1 Now, put: n = = =

I

in the above equation customer

Now consider a group of Si servers as a single serving each Class Then Some the processes That in steady state P(j) = P , )= for

= 0,1,2,3..I

(t), i = 1,2,3..I are independent, , , .. ) (t) = , ... (t) = is given by: eq (1) (t) =

Then, the probability P(j) = P

.. ) =

Recall, we say j is feasible if ji si k js = State are denoted with j = (ji..jN), where ji. Satisfies the number of class i customers in the system. We assume that there is no waiting room, customers who do not find sufficient resources are automatically blocked. now, set P(j) = 0 for all j f then normalize, the probability j f Recall, the probability that the infinite, server process is in a feasible state, in k finite servers C= .. eq (2) becomes ...............eq (3)

Hence, by truncating equation (1) Condition. 1 probability P(j) considered on P(j) = P , .. ) =

Let F(m) be the subset of the states in which an arriving class m customer will not be blocked, That is : F(m) = such that = ji si k - sm Then, B(m) = P(j), m=1,2,I Therefore, by equation (3) B(m) = 1 eq (4)

P( ) = P( 1, 2... I) =

C=

as

..eq (5)

Now, consider a set of K channels serving customers belong to I classes with traffic intensity each using resources and a knapsack of Capacity C. Letting j = ( , ) represent the possible states of the

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Knapsack, then the probability of occurrence of state is denoted equation 5.This equation holds by conditional probability definition. B(m) is the probability that a class m customer is blocked; in this model, B(m) is derived for each class. P( ) is the state probability vector for all . F(m) is the subset of the states in which an arriving class m customer will not be blocked. Example of the Model Consider a multi- service system with two classes of services (voice and download). Both traffic streams of voice and DL calls follow a Poisson process and their holding times are exponentially distributed. The arrival rate of the voice/download and aver of service-time are : 1= 0.3; 1/ 1= 3; 2= 0.2; 1/ 2= 5 minutes. The call has three channels. Calculate the blocking probability of the arriving voice calls and arriving videos calls in the case where the voice service requires two channels per call. Solution I = 2, K = 3, 1= 0.3; 1/ 1= 3; 2= 0.2; 1/ 2= 5 Recall : 1 = 3/0.3 = 10 Er ; 2 = 0.2/0.2 = 1 Er. Compute the steady state probability by setting an arbitrary initial value to one of them ; = SSP of the beirf in state after normalization Let Let = SPP of the beirf in state before normalization = the set of all state = The state space =[ 0, 1, 2] for all feasible = (0,0), (1,0), (2,0), (3,0), (0,2), (1,2) Invoking of the Global Balance Equation of the Steady state, Set = 1 then: = = = . . . = 0.9 = 0.45 = 0.3

Moving on to the state (0,2) and (1,2) = . =1 = . = 0.9

To normalize, we compute = 1+0.9+0.45+0.3+1+0.9 = 4.55 Therefore: = = 0.21978022 = = = = = = 0.197802198 = 0.98901099 = 0.065934066 = 0.21978022 = 0.197802198

Therefore, the voice Blocking probability

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Bvoice =B(V) = 1-

P( ) =

+ +

= 0.26376264 + + = 0.58

The video call blocking is : P( ) = Bvideo =B(VD) = 1-

Hence, the calls are only blocked when the system is completely full, therefore the Bvoice = + And the video calls are blocked also when there is only one channel free, the Bvideo = + + Table 1: Cell dimensioning parameters Blocking/Pilling Request Resources 1TS 0.26 pu 26% 2 TS 0.58 pu 58%

Service Speech Video call DL 275

Intensity 10Er 1Er

SMS MODEL Erlang loss system is fashioned to dimension the requirements for signaling of SDCCH, and denoted by S. The streams are assumed to be Poisson, the blocking probability, B, for each of the three jobs is same and equal to B(s, a). We also model re-attempts on blocking, by assuming that every time a request is blocked, it is reattempted with probabillity r. With re-attempts, the effective arrival rate, ef f of a stream which has arrival rate of new requests = , is given by ef f = /(1 rB). This gives rise to a set of interdependent equations, which can be solved iteratively until convergence is achieved. The blocking probability for a message is then given by: n Bmessage = 1 (1 B) , where n is the number of fragments that a message is split into.
eff

(1- r B)

Where, B = Blocking probability for the aggregate signally for traffic I = intensity of aggregate traffic r = probability of re-trial attempts c = s + c+ v B (s, a) =

Where s = No of available SDCCH signaling a = Traffic intensity for SMS, Maximum size of a single sms message = 160 character = = 140 octet Probability of SMS message = 1 (1- B)n Where n = No of f the strings Again,
s

= No of SMS per cell per sec =

Now consider 1Million messages in a system. No of sms per cell per sec: 10Hr = = 0.55 Assuming that the number of voice calls are about 12 times as many as SMS messages we have v = 6.6. Assuming also that location updates are about 10% of this volume of SMS messages, giving us, l = 0.05 per cell per second. Since the GSM connect time requirement for voice calls is less than 4 seconds, I assume that the voice call

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CS Blocking Rate

Erlang B/ Erlang C Analogy

PS service Quantile & delay

Algorithm Principle Normalise Resources

C=1

Increment C

Cal blocking probability with knapsack algorithm taking in to account both CS and PS traffic

For CS services, compare the blocking probability found with the reqd GoS

For PS services, translate the blocking probability found into PS GoS and compare it to the rqd GoS

No

All services Yes Capacity= C

Yes

Fig. 10: Enhanced Knapsack Model

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setup part takes 0.5 seconds, i.e., v 1 = 0.5 on the SDCCH. In case of location updates, also assume an additional 0.1 second of use of the SDCCH ,bringing the total to l 1 = 0.6. For the enhanced Knapsack model shown below, normalization resource is:

Since Knapsack can handle a circuit switched service mix, then enhanced Knapsack model algorithm is developed to handle both circuit and packet switched traffic. To overcome the blocking and sharing grade of service issues, an analogy in the similarities between Erlang-B and Erlang-C formulas have been imagined. By resource normalization factor, the capacity keeps adjusting until the grade of service requirements are met for all services. DISCUSSION Using stochastic knapsack model as an extension of the Erlang-B algorithm to find the analytical of the blocking probability for each service of voice and data, knowing the system capacity and the incoming traffic. The performance of call blocking probability is drawn versus the traffic (A) as shown in Figure 5. From Call Blocking view This figure presents a comparison of blocking probabilities in GSM systems (without FH), (with FH) and (with DFH). It is seen from the graph the blocking probability of FFH at(load = 2) is equal to (0.07), is more than GSMWFH at( load = 2) is equal to (0.0). The blocking probability is suppressed considerably by applying (DFH). If we compare the Frequency Hopping systems for a loading of (3), GSM (no- FH) has a blocking probability of (0.0), where when with hopping is 0.08; and 0.082 for DFH. As loading increases, blocking probability for GSM (no- FH) increases very fast, while for FH this increase is considerably slow. For DFH the blocking probability is (0) from loading (6), whereas after exploiting DFH, no single user experiences outage until a very high loading value. It is seen from the graph In Figure (6), the blocking probability of FH at user = (60) is equal (0.02), is less than GSM (no FH) at user = (60) and is equal (0.03). The blocking probability is very low in DFH. If we compare between the systems for a loading of (60) at (70), GSM (no-FH) has an outage probability of (0.09), where this probability decreases to (0.025) for FH and (0.0) for DFH. As loading increases, blocking probability for GSM increases very fast, while for FH this increase is considerably slow. For DFH the blocking probability is (0) until users number (70). From the Spectral Efficiency technique: From figure (7) it is seen that traffic control could potentially increase the spectral efficiency by decreasing the traffic itself, since the reduced interference could allow the users to achieve higher rate. This figure shows the performances of these systems GSM without FH (no FH), with FH, with DFH. Another striking result of Figure (7) is the improvement in the average user spectral efficiency and hence in the high data rate coverage. Although for low loading the difference in spectral efficiency is not much for load = 1, GSM-no FH (3.5 b/s/Hz), with FH (5.1 b/s/Hz), with DFH (6.5 b/s/Hz), and the results show that with the help of the relays better with heavy traffic for load = (2.3), GSM (no FH) ( 1.9 b/s/Hz), FH (2.2 b/s/Hz), DFH (2.9 b/s/Hz). At loading = 4, the spectral efficiency for DFH is higher than that of GSM no- FH (1.05), FH (1.4). Figure (8) shows the performance of Spectral efficiency with reuse distance (radius (m)). The Spectral efficiency is shown to be generally increased by decreasing the reuse distance. From optimal value of spectral efficiency the optimal value of reuse distance can be obtained, and from the optimal reuse distance also the minimum value of interference can be obtained. From results shown in Figure (9), it is seen the spectral efficiency increases, when the number of cell per cluster is decreasing. The optimal value (best the minimum) of the number of cell in cluster causes reduced interference, since the reduced interference could allow the users to achieve higher rates.

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DISCUSSION SUMMARY The result of SE with DFH is (6.5 b/s/Hz), compared with FH (5.1 b/s/Hz) and GSM (3.5 b/s/Hz). It leads to an improvement in performance of system and how reducing interference could allow the users to achieve higher rate. Blocking probability is improved because of handling speed drop in received signal level for call. In systems of GSM, blocking probability increases very fast by increasing the number of users. In FH technique, the blocking increases slowly at the beginning. In DFH blocking probability increases very slowly with increasing the number of users. The received power method gives better performance than other methods of DFH. Because the speed of DFH/Pr process is faster than that of the other method by factor T/6 (where T is the processing time). CONCLUSION The enhanced Knapsack model has developed a reliable and accurate Traffic model, which allows us to: 1. Address resource sharing by users accessing different services 2. Handle both circuit and packet switched services with different grade of service 3. Derive an optimised capacity reflecting the real traffic occurring in the cell to anticipate capacity analysis. Also, based on the analysis conducted, the following conclusion could be drawn: the new developed variant of Dynamic frequency Hopping has shown the method that does not allow received signal power to drop. Therefore the received power method gives better performance than other methods of DFH, this is because the processing speed of DFH/Pr is faster than that of any other method by a factor of T/6, that is, this is six times faster than other methods (where T is the processing time). From the SMS capacity analysis, it is observed that the effect of increasing volumes and sizes of SMS messages on GSM network can be significant. SMS uses a resource that is shared by other very important control messages (especially, voice call set-up). The analytical method of data for cell dimensioning and the Lost traffic approach allows more accurate optimal modelling. CONTRIBUTION Practical experiences have been able to assist to identify some practical requirements of some past reviewed literatures so as to have more realistic framework for modelling. Essentially the need for multiplicity technique in a GSM network capacity analysis, is a novel discovery. The work was able to develop different specific Grade of Service tools of call blocking probability for different services on GSM platform. Also able develop a technique to increase the spectral efficiency using Dynamic Frequency Hopping that is received power based. Since the practical experience has revealed that homogeneous cell size and regular frequency reuse simply assume that traffic density is homogeneous, this does not reflect at all the real networks where the number of mobile users under a particular coverage area is random and time varying due to user mobility, I was able to identify and develop the model describing no homogeneities of traffic distributions of GSM network. RECOMMENDATION The following recommendations can make the work in this paper of great practical usefulness: further research work that would develop a program tracking received signal level for determining the handover process and also that would maintain the received signal power through communication processes is recommended for the completion of this work. The implementation of these new techniques and tools should be implemented on the live network to validate its accuracy. FUTURE WORK Another parameter that is important to consider for GSM network performance and capacity analysis is the channel holding time. This can be defined as the time during which a new or handover call occupies a channel in the given cell, and it is dependent on the mobility of the user. The accurate knowledge of the channel holding time probability distribution function is expected to produce more accurate analysis of traffic modeling. This is expected to improve the efficiency of the radio resources and thereby make possible the development of new services offered through GSM platform such as GPRS/EDGE.

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REFERENCES Alcatel L (2007): File Reference Overview of GPRS and Edge radio network design process, 2007. Altaman E, Tania Jimenez and Gar Koole (2001), Optimal Call Admission Control IEEE Transactions on Communications, June, 2001. Cheng H, Z. Shao, Y. Fang and J. Huang (2008), Wed Traffic Analysis based on Log Infinitely Divisible Cascade, May, 2008. Cisco Inc (2010), Traffic Analysis : www.cisco.com/en/ks/docs. Erlang A (1964) Solution of Same problems in the theory of probability of significance in automatic telephone Ex., The Post Office Engineers Journal. 10:189 197. Feinberg E.A and M.I. Reinman (2004), Optimality of randomized trunk reservation Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci., 8: 463-489. Flardrin P, P. Abry, D. Veitch and P. Chainas (2007), Infinitely Divisible Cascade Analysis of Network Traffic Data, Technical Journal, 1: 245-248. Hussein B and J. Goldsmith (2009), Dynamic Channel Allocation in Mobile Telephony. Hong D and W. Roberts (2006), Traffic model and performance analysis for cellular mobile radio telephone systems,June, 2006. Jordan J and P. Abry (1998), Inter-arrival time distribution for channel arrival in cellular telephony, Berlin, July, 1998. Kamfman J.S (1981), Blocking in a shared resources environment IEEE Transaction On Communications, COM-29, 1981, pp 1474-1481. Kuboye B (2006) Optimization Models for minimizing congestion in Nigeria, 2010 and Development of a Framework for managing of congestion in GSM in Nigeria, Master Thesis, University of Port Harcourt. Leung K and S. Meiyn (2004), Traffic models for wireless communication networks, 2004. Miller B (1969), A queuing Reward System, Mgt Sci, April, 1969. Peter B.E (2009), GSM Raw Capacity Solution Ericsson Review (2), Sweden. Rappaport S and K. Ross (1998), Traffic model and performance analysis for cellular mobile, IEEE transaction on Vehicular Technology, August 1998. Riedi J, and J.I. Vebel (1997), Muth fractal pripaties of TCP traffic Technical Report No 3129, INRIA, France Feb, 1997. Rocon G. Bianchi (2004), A Novel Network Traffic Predictor based on Multifractal Traffic characteristic, Globecom. IEE Communication Society. pp. 680-684. Sarker J and T. Sarker (2009), Performance Analysis of GSM Traffic Channel Capacity with High Speed Circuit Switched Data, April, 2009. Shenghui W, and Q. Zhengding (2007), Traffic Based on Muithfractal Analysis, Journal of Computer Research, 44(1): 92-98. Taylor P, Insensitivity in Stochastic Models (2010), Chapter 3, in N. Van Dijk and R. Boucherie (eds.) Queueing Networks: A Fundamental Approach, Springer-Verlag, pp 121-140, Berlin, New York, April, 2010.

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Zou D, X. Zhang, and W. Wang (2008), Muthservices Traffic Models of Heterogeneous Wireless Communication Networks Technical Journal, 2008 (6): 11-18. Received for Publication: 01/11 /2010 Accepted for Publication: 02/12 /2010 Corresponding Author Igbekele O.J Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, University of Portharcourt, Portharcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.

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