AVIATION PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Captain Lim Khoy Hing chronicles the past, explains the present and welcomes you to a world of wonders just waiting to amaze passengers, as air travel gets more and more advanced.

Future Perfect
Airbus recently came up with many new ideas about the future of air travel in a booklet titled The Future. This little book is packed with loads of fascinating new innovations that are revolutionising the airline industry. Amongst them, an aircraft that allows passengers unobstructed views of the cities and all the wonders of the world below through a transparent floor with a touch of a button. Materials of the future will also have the ability to become transparent, negating the need for windows. Passengers who complain of slow boarding would have planes with double doors for quicker and easier access to the cabin. There would be fewer complaints from residents who live near airports about noise pollution, as planes would come with mega-quiet engines that burn less fuel and significantly reduce noxious gasses. How would space congestion be solved? The booklet suggests that planes with vertical take-off capabilities is one way of gaining more space. Planes will also fly faster with ultra-thin wings to glide better through the air. Hypersonic planes that fly above the atmosphere would take just two to three hours to fly from London to Melbourne. Turnaround time would be faster, as headrests would be self-cleaning and can never be soiled. Passengers too would have comfortable seats that mould to their body shape and, can use holographic technology to turn the environment of their private cabins into different landscapes. So imagine, if you will, stepping into your pre-selected themed cabin, relaxing into a perfectly clean, ecologically-grown seat that changes shape to suit you and looking up through the transparent ceiling at the Milky Way in all its glory at an altitude of more than 10,000 meters, so says Airbus in the booklet.

Past Perfected

Whilst the future of air travel may seem far-fetched for now, this could definitely be a reality very soon. In the meantime, heres a quick look at the progress the aviation industry has made in the past 100 years. Malaysia, which celebrated 100 years of civil aviation in June this year, records an Antoinette monoplane as the first aircraft to land here. Incidentally, the plane touched down on a race course, which subsequently made way for the Petronas Twin Towers; one of the tallest buildings in the world. The Antoinette had a maximum speed of only 44 mph (70 kph). Fast forward to the present, about 100 years later, the Boeing 777 and Airbus A340 cruise at more than 10 times the speed. It took 28 days and 22 refueling stops for a Twin Pioneer to fly from Scotland to Malaysia 50 years ago. Today, it takes just about 13 hours to fly almost the same distance without refueling on AirAsia X Airbus A340 from London to Kuala Lumpur.

Five Decades in the Making

Flying 50 years ago was a real challenge. I remember that most planes had no autopilot, especially my first transport plane the Twin Pioneers where the co-pilot took the place of the autopilot. The captain normally handed over long, laborious and boring parts of the flying to the co-pilot who had the tough job of maintaining the heading and altitude. Today, the autopilot takes over as soon as the plane lifts off and, the auto-thrust handles the power. In the past, some pilots got lost because of poor navigation aids whilst deviating from bad weather. Navigation was aided by radio beacons using the automatic directional finder (ADF) that were prone to errors. Today, the Global Positioning System (GPS), similar to that in your car, is so accurate that a pilot can never get lost.

Present Matters: Computer Conundrums

Nowadays, the computer does about 95 percent of the flying. An air traveller once wrote to me saying that he never felt comfortable about flying in an airplane controlled by computers. His personal experience of a computer is something that stalls, crashes and is pretty unreliable. In reality, the use of computers in technology has greatly benefited the aviation industry. The computer is fast, reliable and at times, more accurate than human reaction. However, human beings are still in overall control, and should any technical issues crop up, the pilots can still override the computers in flight. Most of the time, problems are quickly detected and always rectified before the plane gets airborne.

Electronic Flight Bag

Compared to the past, computer technology on most commercial aircraft that assist pilots to navigate, plan and control the flights have made flying very safe. Additionally, the latest navigation gadget, the Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) in some planes, has made flying even safer as pilots are able to obtain the latest data, such as weather, special notices to pilots and volcanic activity immediately or when required. This is a key element for quicker decision making and efficient flight management. In case of an emergency, a simple tap on the proposed diversion airport on the EFB screen reveals the information necessary for a safe landing. Additionally, maintenance pro-activeness is increased with the same connected EFB alerting pilots to current faults or unusual engine behavior. Pilots can then communicate and seek recommendations or best actions without compromising safety. As for computers that manage the plane, some travellers are skeptical about relying on a machine that may not be as smart as human beings. The fact is, a machine can operate with greater precision than any human ever could. For instance, if I were flying an Airbus A340 on a day when most airports are fogged up, I rely on computers to bring me down or else the passengers would end up in another destination. The auto landing will take me safely down in almost zero visibility. It is humanly impossible for a pilot to manually fly the plane safely to that kind of precision. Should the computers fail at anytime, only then will the pilot intervene and take over to abort the landing. So you see, modern technology probably means better and faster travel, while more intelligent computers will change the landscape of the aviation world. At present, a passenger is simply transported to his destination safely and comfortably. In the future, however, air travel will be a fascinating experience with features we never thought possible.

Past, Present & Future

Luxury Aircraft: Air charter was originally designed to offer business executives an alternative to the high cost and ongoing expense of aircraft ownership. Private jet charter offers the same convenience, flexibility and luxury of private jet ownership, without the ongoing cost and expense of owning and maintaining a private aircraft. Its difficult to say when air charter first took off in the private aviation industry. Most experts agree that air charter became popular right after World War II. After the war ended in the 1940s, the surplus of leftover aircraft led many aircraft owners to rent or charter out their planes to offset the cost and expense of maintaining the jet. In the 1960s, which could be considered the golden era for private jet charter, the first corporate jet was introduced to the air charter industry. This aircraft was the Learjet 23. Designed after the P16 Swiss fighter, the Lear 23 quickly gained notoriety for its amazing climb performance and sleek aircraft design, by 1960s standards. The Lear 23 is considered the first charter jet aircraft by many experts in the private aviation field. After the successful introduction of the private aircraft, many new private jet models were quickly introduced to the air charter industry. Unlike their military predecessors, these charter aircraft were specifically designed for comfort and luxury, setting a whole new precedence for business travel. Over the next 30 years, the air charter industry expanded to include not only light jet aircraft, but the mid-size and heavy jet aircraft we have today. There was only one problem: No one knew how to find these aircraft. Before the advent of the Internet, aircraft operators didnt have the ability to advertise the price, availability and location of charter aircraft to a large audience of private jet travelers. From the 1940s to the 1960s, private jet travelers had to rely on either word-of-mouth or the yellow pages to find a local aircraft operator for their charter flights. If a business executive happened to find a local aircraft operator, there was no guarantee that the operator would have availability for their flight. Oftentimes, this forced business executives into flying commercial because they couldnt find an available aircraft. Jet Charter in the Information Age The advent of the Internet in the 1990s completely revolutionized the air charter industry by enabling aircraft operators to advertise their charter fleets to a large global audience. This enabled private jet travelers to contact a broker of aviation who could then source all the relevant and available aircraft for their charter flights. For the first time in 50 years, private jet travelers had access to charter aircraft through the Internet. With this new Internet technology came the emergence of several new business models in the late 1980s and 1990s, including fractional ownership, membership programs (jet cards) and eventually, on-demand jet charter. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, jet charter brokers also emerged on the scene. Charter brokers specialize in offering private jet travelers multiple aircraft options for their charter flights. During the Internet age, the first air charter model to emerge was fractional ownership. Fractional ownership provides an alternative to the high cost of whole aircraft ownership. Fractional ownership programs sell a fractional interest or share in a specific type of private aircraft. By purchasing a prorata share or fractional interest, private jet travelers can eliminate the costs and expense of aircraft maintenance and acquisition fees, while still enjoying the benefits of aircraft ownership. However, fractional aircraft owners are restricted to utilizing the same type of private aircraft regardless of the distance or passenger count of individual flights. In addition, the initial cash outlay of fractional ownership is considerable, and can cost individuals and companies well into the millions of dollars, depending on share size. After the introduction of the fractional ownership business model, membership programs, emerged in the air charter industry. Jet membership programs offer a less expensive alternative to fractional ownership. They share the same fixed hourly rate structure of fractional ownerships, but they dont offer the same economical advantages of owning and depreciating capital equipment as fractional ownerships.

While membership programs further reduce the financial barriers of entering private aviation, they share many of the same limitations of fractional ownership programs. Like fractional jet owners, jet card buyers are restricted to utilizing the 25 hours in the same type of aircraft, regardless of the individual needs of their charter flight. In the late 1990s, air charter professionals came up with a solution to the problems presented by both fractional ownership and jet membership programs. They invented a new business model, called ondemand air charter, that enables air charter buyers to purchase individual flights in on-demand charter aircraft. Although a brand-new approach to jet charter, on-demand soon became the most successful business model in the air charter industry. Unlike fractional ownership and jet membership programs, on-demand jet charter enables air charter consumers to purchase jet charter flights on a per-trip basis, eliminating capital commitment or additional monthly fees. On-demand jet charter flyers work with air charter agents to find the safest and most luxurious aircraft for individual charter flights. And since air charter agents have access to thousands of private jet aircraft, they can find the most appropriate aircraft for individual charter flights. The Future of Air Charter As we enter a new decade, some of us may wonder how the future will affect the private jet charter industry. Our air charter agency predicts that a new category of lighter and more efficient aircraft, called Very Light Jets (VLJ), will help usher in the next generation of private jet flyers by lowering the cost of on-demand jet charter flights. We also think that the introduction of high-speed Internet on jet charter flights will increase the efficiency and productivity of private jet charter. As we move into the next decade, the increasing efficiency of jet charter as a business tool will only serve to increase the popularity of air charter. At B Aviation, we believe that new advancements in technology will dramatically change the air charter industry over the next several years. We believe that new aircraft designs, advanced computer technology and updated Air Traffic Control systems will enable B Aviation to offer the safest and most valuable air charter service in the industry.

MEANING: Aviation is the design, development, production, operation, and use of aircraft, especially heavierthan-air aircraft. Aviation is derived from avis, the Latin word for bird. History Main article: History of aviation Many cultures have built devices that travel through the air, from the earliest projectiles such as [1][2] stones and spears, the boomerang in Australia, the hot air Kongming lantern, and kites. There are early legends of human flight such as the story of Icarus, and Jamshid in Persian myth, and later, somewhat more credible claims of short-distance human flights appear, such as the flying automaton [3] of Archytas of Tarentum (428347 BC), the winged flights of Abbas Ibn Firnas (810887), Eilmer of Malmesbury (11th century), and the hot-air Passarola of Bartolomeu Loureno de Gusmo (1685 1724). The modern age of aviation began with the first untethered human lighter-than-air flight on November 21, 1783, in a hot air balloon designed by the Montgolfier brothers. The practicality of balloons was limited because they could only travel downwind. It was immediately recognized that a steerable, or dirigible, balloon was required. Jean-Pierre Blanchard flew the first human-powered dirigible in 1784 and crossed the English Channel in one in 1785. In 1799 Sir George Cayley set forth the concept of the modern airplane as a fixed-wing flying machine [4][5] with separate systems for lift, propulsion, and control. Early dirigible developments included machine-powered propulsion (Henri Giffard, 1852), rigid frames (David Schwarz, 1896), and improved speed and maneuverability (Alberto Santos-Dumont, 1901)

First assisted take-off flight by the Wright Brothers, December 17, 1903 While there are many competing claims for the earliest powered, heavier-than-air flight, the most widely-accepted date is December 17, 1903 by the Wright brothers. The Wright brothers were the first to fly in a powered and controlled aircraft. Previous flights were gliders (control but no power) or free flight (power but no control), but the Wright brothers combined both, setting the new standard in aviation records. Following this, the widespread adoption of ailerons rather than wing warping made aircraft much easier to control, and only a decade later, at the start of World War I, heavier-than-air powered aircraft had become practical for reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and even attacks against ground positions. Aircraft began to transport people and cargo as designs grew larger and more reliable. The Wright brothers took aloft the first passenger, Charles Furnas, one of their mechanics, on May 14, [6][7] 1908. In contrast to small non-rigid blimps, giant rigid airshipsbecame the first aircraft to transport passengers and cargo over great distances. The best known aircraft of this type were manufactured by the German Zeppelin company.

Hindenburg at Lakehurst Naval Air Station, 1936 The most successful Zeppelin was the Graf Zeppelin. It flew over one million miles, including an around-the-world flight in August 1929. However, the dominance of the Zeppelins over the airplanes of that period, which had a range of only a few hundred miles, was diminishing as airplane design advanced. The "Golden Age" of the airships ended on May 6, 1937 when the Hindenburg caught fire, killing 36 people. Although there have been periodic initiatives to revive their use, airships have seen only niche application since that time. Great progress was made in the field of aviation during the 1920s and 1930s, such as Charles Lindbergh's solo transatlantic flight in 1927, and Charles Kingsford Smith's transpacific flight the following year. One of the most successful designs of this period was the Douglas DC-3, which became the first airliner that was profitable carrying passengers exclusively, starting the modern era of passenger airline service. By the beginning of World War II, many towns and cities had built airports, and there were numerous qualified pilots available. The war brought many innovations to aviation, including the first jet aircraft and the first liquid-fueledrockets.

NASA's Helios researches solar powered flight. After World War II, especially in North America, there was a boom in general aviation, both private and commercial, as thousands of pilots were released from military service and many inexpensive war-surplus transport and training aircraft became available. Manufacturers such as Cessna, Piper, and Beechcraft expanded production to provide light aircraft for the new middle-class market. By the 1950s, the development of civil jets grew, beginning with the de Havilland Comet, though the first widely-used passenger jet was the Boeing 707, because it was much more economical than other planes at the time. At the same time, turboprop propulsion began to appear for smaller commuter planes, making it possible to serve small-volume routes in a much wider range of weather conditions. Since the 1960s, composite airframes and quieter, more efficient engines have become available, and Concorde providedsupersonic passenger service for more than two decades, but the most important lasting innovations have taken place in instrumentation and control. The arrival of solidstate electronics, the Global Positioning System, satellite communications, and increasingly small and powerful computers and LED displays, have dramatically changed the cockpits of airliners and, increasingly, of smaller aircraft as well. Pilots can navigate much more accurately and view terrain, obstructions, and other nearby aircraft on a map or through synthetic vision, even at night or in low visibility. On June 21, 2004, SpaceShipOne became the first privately funded aircraft to make a spaceflight, opening the possibility of an aviation market capable of leaving the Earth's atmosphere. Meanwhile, flying prototypes of aircraft powered by alternative fuels, such as ethanol, electricity, and even solar energy, are becoming more common. [edit]Civil aviation Main article: Civil aviation Civil aviation includes all non-military flying, both general aviation and scheduled air transport. [edit]Air transport Main article: Airline

Northwest Airlines Airbus A330-323X

There are five major manufacturers of civil transport aircraft (in alphabetical order): Airbus, based in Europe Boeing, based in the United States Bombardier, based in Canada Embraer, based in Brazil United Aircraft Corporation, based in Russia

Boeing, Airbus, Ilyushin and Tupolev concentrate on wide-body and narrow-body jet airliners, while Bombardier, Embraer andSukhoi concentrate on regional airliners. Large networks of specialized parts suppliers from around the world support these manufacturers, who sometimes provide only the initial design and final assembly in their own plants. The Chinese ACAC consortiumwill also soon [8] enter the civil transport market with its ACAC ARJ21 regional jet. Until the 1970s, most major airlines were flag carriers, sponsored by their governments and heavily protected from competition. Since then, open skies agreements have resulted in increased competition and choice for consumers, coupled with falling prices for airlines. The combination of high fuel prices, low fares, high salaries, and crises such as the September 11, 2001 attacks and the SARS epidemic have driven many older airlines to government-bailouts, bankruptcy or mergers. At the same time, low-cost carrierssuch as Ryanair, Southwest and Westjet have flourished. [edit]General aviation Main article: General aviation

1947 Cessna 120

A weight-shift ultralight aircraft, the Air Creation Tanarg General aviation includes all non-scheduled civil flying, both private and commercial. General aviation may include business flights,air charter, private aviation, flight training, ballooning, parachuting, gliding, hang gliding, aerial photography, foot-launched powered hang gliders, air ambulance, crop dusting, charter flights, traffic reporting, police air patrols and forest fire fighting.

Each country regulates aviation differently, but general aviation usually falls under different regulations depending on whether it is private or commercial and on the type of equipment involved. Many small aircraft manufacturers serve the general aviation market, with a focus on private aviation and flight training. The most important recent developments for small aircraft (which form the bulk of the GA fleet) have been the introduction of advanced avionics (including GPS) that were formerly found only in large airliners, and the introduction of composite materials to make small aircraft lighter and faster. Ultralight and homebuilt aircraft have also become increasingly popular for recreational use, since in most countries that allow private aviation, they are much less expensive and less heavily regulated than certified aircraft. [edit]Military aviation Main articles: Military aviation and Aerial warfare Simple balloons were used as surveillance aircraft as early as the 18th century. Over the years, military aircraft have been built to meet ever increasing capability requirements. Manufacturers of military aircraft compete for contracts to supply their government's arsenal. Aircraft are selected based on factors like cost, performance, and the speed of production.

The Lockheed SR-71 remains unsurpassed in many areas of performance. [edit]Types of military aviation Fighter aircraft's primary function is to destroy other aircraft. (e.g. Sopwith Camel, A6M Zero, F15, MiG-29, Su-27, and F-22). Ground attack aircraft are used against tactical earth-bound targets. (e.g. Junkers Stuka, A-10, Il2, J-22 Orao, AH-64 and Su-25). Bombers are generally used against more strategic targets, such as factories and oil fields. (e.g. Zeppelin, Tu-95, Mirage IV, and B-52). Transport aircraft are used to transport hardware and personnel. (e.g. C-17 Globemaster III, C130 Hercules and Mil Mi-26). Surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft obtain information about enemy forces. (e.g. Rumpler Taube, Mosquito, U-2, OH-58and MiG-25R). Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are used primarily as reconnaissance fixed-wing aircraft, though many also carry payloads. Cargo aircraft are in development. (e.g. RQ-7B Shadow, MQ-8 Fire Scout, and MQ-1C Gray Eagle). Missiles deliver warheads, normally explosives, but also things like leaflets. [edit]Aviation accidents and incidents Main article: Aviation accidents and incidents

Thunderbird 1st year Capt. Christopher Stricklin ejected from his USAF F-16 aircraft at an airshow at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, on September 14, 2003. While performing a Reverse Half Cuban Eight, Stricklin realized he could not pull up in time and ejected. Eight-tenths of a second later, the plane crashed, skidding aflame 200 yards, and the engine flew out and went another 100 yards. Except for a few bruises, he was not injured. An aviation accident is defined by the Convention on International Civil Aviation Annex 13 as an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which a person is fatally or seriously injured, the aircraft sustains damage or [9] structural failure or the aircraft is missing or is completely inaccessible. The first fatal aviation accident occurred in a Wright Model A aircraft at Fort Myer, Virginia, USA, on September 17, 1908, resulting in injury to the pilot, Orville Wright and death of the passenger, Signal [10] Corps Lieutenant Thomas Selfridge. An aviation incident is defined as an occurrence, other than an accident, associated with the [11] operation of an aircraft that affects or could affect the safety of operations. An accident in which the damage to the aircraft is such that it must be written off, or in which the plane [11] is destroyed is called a hull loss accident. [edit]Air Traffic Control (ATC) Main article: Air traffic control

Air traffic control towers at Amsterdam Airport Air traffic control (ATC) involves communication with aircraft to help maintain separation that is, they ensure that aircraft are sufficiently far enough apart horizontally or vertically for no risk of collision. Controllers may co-ordinate position reports provided by pilots, or in high traffic areas (such as the United States) they may use radar to see aircraft positions. There are generally four different types of ATC: center controllers, who control aircraft en route between airports control towers (including tower, ground control, clearance delivery, and other services), which control aircraft within a small distance (typically 1015 km horizontal, and 1,000 m vertical) of an airport. oceanic controllers, who control aircraft over international waters between continents, generally without radar service. terminal controllers, who control aircraft in a wider area (typically 5080 km) around busy airports.

ATC is especially important for aircraft flying under Instrument flight rules (IFR), where they may be in weather conditions that do not allow the pilots to see other aircraft. However, in very high-traffic areas, especially near major airports, aircraft flying under Visual flight rules (VFR) are also required to follow instructions from ATC. In addition to separation from other aircraft, ATC may provide weather advisories, terrain separation, navigation assistance, and other services to pilots, depending on their workload. ATC do not control all flights. The majority of VFR flights in North America are not required to talk to ATC (unless they are passing through a busy terminal area or using a major airport), and in many areas, such as northern Canada and low altitude in northernScotland, Air trafic control services are not available even for IFR flights at lower altitudes. [edit]Environmental impact Main article: Aviation and the environment Like all activities involving combustion, operating powered aircraft (from airliners to hot air balloons) release soot and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are also produced. In addition, there are environmental impacts specific to aviation:

Water vapor contrails left by high-altitude jet airliners. These may contribute to cirrus cloud formation. Aircraft operating at high altitudes near the tropopause (mainly large jet airliners) emit aerosols and leave contrails, both of which can increase cirrus cloud formation cloud cover may have [12] increased by up to 0.2% since the birth of aviation. Aircraft operating at high altitudes near the tropopause can also release chemicals that interact with greenhouse gases at those altitudes, particularly nitrogen compounds, which interact with [13][14] ozone, increasing ozone concentrations. Most light piston aircraft burn avgas, which contains tetra-ethyl lead (TEL). Some lowercompression piston engines can operate on unleaded mogas, and turbine engines and diesel engines neither of which requires lead are appearing on some newerlight aircraft.

CURRENT SCENARIO
Over the past 10 years, the Indian aviation has moved from a closed, poorly managed and over-regulated industry to a more open, liberalised, and investor friendly sector. Liberalization of the sector and entry of low cost carriers have been the main drivers for the growth. The sector has also witnessed growth in terms of increased airport infrastructure and increased numbers of operating airlines. The key sector trends are as captured as under:

Earlier all airports were in AAI control, which carried out improvements by subcontracting to EPC contractors. However, over last five years, airport infrastructure has attracted private investment through the PPP route at four international airports, viz. Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore Greenfield and Hyderabad Greenfield airports The Government has increased the FDI limit to 100% in Greenfield airports and airlines. Larger private sector role in airport infrastructure and management has led the Government to introduce an Airport Economic Regulatory Authority Bill to regulate private airport and airline operators market. The Authority will have functions relating to tariff determination, amount of development fees in respect of major airports, amount of passenger service fee, and monitoring of performance standards relating to quality, continuity and reliability of service. The number of airlines including low cost carriers has increased. This led to subsequent increase in competition and fare reduction which further fuelled the air traffic growth. The sector has witnessed accelerated fleet acquisition activities and present fleet size of all domestic airlines has exceeded 300 aircrafts. However, present downturn may slowdown fleet expansion plans Up gradation and modernization of airports and as well as the rising fleet size have raised need for support services such as setting up of MRO facilities and boosting cargo operations by setting up air cargo facilities. Significant planned expansion of Indias fleet has lured several global players such as Airbus, Boeing, SIA Engineering, ST Aerospace and Lufthansa Technik to establish MRO facilities in India. Large investments are expected in MRO (Maintenance Repairs and Overhauls) segment in India. Liberalizing bilateral traffic rights with several countries has taken total seats entitlement up by 123%

between 2003 and 2006. This led to 17.8% growth of international traffic in 2007-08 from last fiscal.

Higher fuel costs, structure of high taxes and higher user charges are leading to huge margin pressures on airlines, initiating a trend of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions of airlines. The nationwide passenger demand growth is strongly exhibited in Gujarat too. Historically, Gujarat airports exhibited a growth rate of 1.2% in passenger traffic during the five year period from 1997-98 to 2002-03, lower than the all India average of 5% during the same period. After 200203, passenger traffic witnessed 26% compounded annual growth rates which was 5% higher than the national average. This turnaround was primarily observed at Ahmedabad airport and was driven by low cost carriers, higher price elasticity, increased disposable incomes and overall buoyancy of the economy. Demand for backup and supporting industries like Maintenance Repair and Overhaul, aviation hubs, aviation manpower etc has increased due to the growth in the aviation sector. Over the eleventh five year plan period, Rs. 40,880 crores of investment is envisaged in airport infrastructure. Modernization of metro airports comprise 40% of eleventh plan investment where as 35 non metro airports across the India will be upgraded at an investment of Rs 6,149 crores. This forms 15% of non metros investment. However 30% of eleventh plans investment is envisaged in development of several Greenfield airports across the India. Approximately 75% private sector investment is envisaged in this period indicating larger role for the private sector. Growth in civil aviation is threatened by challenges such as declining volumes due to high fares, high operational costs, global economic slowdown, security and law and order issues and a traditional high cost loaded structure of the industry which is difficult to recover in a short time. These developments have put a huge strain on the airlines capacity to sustain volumes. The airlines are now responding through mergers, acquisitions, tie ups and cost cutting measures within leading airlines. However, downturn in oil prices, committed Government support, strong underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy may help the sector tide over the crisis.

Aviation Industry in India -- Present Scenario and Future Trends

Introduction Praful Patel, India's civil aviation minister has declared the start of an "air travel revolution". According to the Director General of IATA, Giovanni Bisignani, "The expansion of air transport in India is among the fastest in the world." This is being reflected in the double digit growth rates of passengers and aircraft orders placed by Indian carriers. To meet this growth there is an immediate need for improvement in existing infrastructure. Modernization of 30 airports by 2009 has been proposed by the ministry and the process of raising an amount of approximately US $1.2 billion has begun. In the next 10 years India's aviation sector is expected to see investments to the tune of US $50 billion. These will be made mainly in the form of airport infrastructure upgrade and fleet acquisition by carriers. Private sector and the government are expected to invest about US $30 billion in this sector in the next 5 years. This makes India a very attractive market for airport and avionics equipment manufacturers and service providers. The Government of India policy to liberalize the civil aviation market also presents foreign firms with significant export and investment opportunities. Air Traffic:

Present Status: * From just 5.1 million passengers in 1970, domestic and international air passenger traffic has grown to nearly 59 million passengers in 2004-05. * International passenger traffic has grown from 16.6 million to 19.4 million and domestic traffic has grown from 32.08 million to 40.09 million from 2003-04 to 2004-05. According to an ASSOCHAM (Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India) Eco Pulse Survey, international passenger traffic out of India enjoyed a 17% growth, while domestic traffic witnessed a 24% year-on-year growth. * Growth of domestic air traffic in the first half of this fiscal year has been ranked only second to China by growth analysts. * Cargo traffic has grown from 979,000 tonnes (646,000 tonnes of international and 333,000 tonnes of domestic) in 2002-03 to 1.06 million tonnes of cargo (693,000 tonnes, international and 3.75,000, domestic) in 2003-04. Future Growth: * International passenger traffic growth of 8.4% annually between 2005 and 2009. If domestic traffic is added, the figure comes close to 12%. Industry sources feel that these figures can be less because air transport grows twice GDP. Considering that the GDP growth is expected at 7.2%, air traffic growth can be expected in the range of 15%. By 2010, the forecast is that air traffic will increase to around 90 million. * The Indian market for international freight expected to grow by nearly 10% annually over the next five years. Air cargo

exports from India are expected to rise from the present 0.8 million tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes while domestic cargo will rise from 300,000 tonnes to over 1 million tonnes by 2010. According to estimates, the present infrastructure can support a 20 per cent growth in passenger traffic and 10 per cent growth in cargo traffic. The need for improvement in infrastructure to meet these growing demands has been recognized and the Ministry of Civil Aviation estimates that there is a need for an investment of Rs. 260 Rs. 360 billion. Airlines: * The number of carriers operating in India has grown from two state-owned players in 1991 to 11 today. Another four carriers are set to start operations soon. Several low cost carriers including Deccan Air, Kingfisher Air, Go Air, Royal Airways, Air One and Indus Air have begun operating flights in the domestic sector. International airlines like Jet Star, Valueair and Tiger Airways are planning to introduce flights in 2005. * More than 60% of the domestic aviation market is accounted by private airlines. * With increasing popularity of air travel, airlines like Air India, Jet Airways and Indian Airlines posted profits last year. * Investors from India and abroad are so eager in investing in this industry that Jet Airways IPO was sold out within minutes of being launched. Airplanes: * To meet the growing demand, Indian carriers are placing major orders for aircrafts. * Indian carriers placed orders over US $12 billion in this years Paris Air Show. * Of the 280 aircraft order received by Airbus at the Paris Air Show, 135 are from Indian carriers. has received order for at the Paris Air Show, 135 are headed for India. Moreover, of the $50 billion that Airbus can earn from these deals, the contribution of Indian carriers is over $15 billion. * Airbus forecasts that the number of new aircraft it would sell to Indian carriers would go up to 400 by the year 2023. This will make the India the third largest market for new aircraft in Asia, behind China (1,790) and Japan (640), according to Airbus' Global Market Forecast 2004-2023. The aviation industry is of the view that the European aircraft maker may have to again revise its projection upwards. * Boeing expects India to buy aircraft worth $35 billion in the next 20 years. The Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) estimates India's domestic airlines would need 650 new aircraft by 2012, up from the current 210. * Every new carrier launched in the country will need to buy a minimum of five aircraft to start operations, as stipulated under the license condition, in the next 12 months. * InterGlobe Enterprises has placed firm orders for 100 aircraft worth $6.5 billion.

Carrier Proposed Air 50 Air 18 Indian 43 Jet 30 Air 60 Kingfisher 48 Spicejet 20 Indigo 100 GoAir 15 Magic 10 Paramount 5 Airports:

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2006)

* India has a civil aviation network comprising 449 airports/airstrips. * However, Delhi and Mumbai airports handle 70% of the passenger traffic and contribute 80% of revenue. Both the airports are facing significant capacity constraints. * The Indian government plans to spend $20 billion over the next 5 years upgrading airports and expanding two government-owned airlines to win passengers from the regional hubs of Singapore and Dubai. * The restructuring of the first phase of Delhi airport is expected to be completed by 2009 at a cost of Rs 1.9 billion.

Expansion and upgradation of the current facility at Mumbai is already under way. * Work has started on a new international airport at Bangalore by Siemens AG and Unique Zurich Airport at the cost of US $325.6 million. * Apart from strengthening of the Hyderabad runway at a cost of Rs 700 million. Malaysia Airport Holdings is building a new airport in southern city of Hyderabad. The cost of this new airport is expected to be around US $320 million. * The government has also decided to modernize 25 airports in non-metro cities. Improvement of another 55 airports is also on the anvil. * AAI has suggested upgradation of the airports and provision of facilities such as duty-free shopping and recreational activities that would lead to growth in tourism, business travel and exports. government has decided to encourage private sector investment in such activities, including shopping complexes, golf courses, entertainment parks, aero-sports, etc near airports to promote tourism. * The state government of Maharashtra has proposed the construction of an International Multi Model Passenger and Cargo Hub (MIHAN) at Nagpur. * Indias Ministry of Civil Aviation will outline the significant new investment opportunities arising in the sector as a result of its USD8.4 billion airport upgrade plan. * According to Praful Patel, Minister of Civil Aviation, some 400 airports would have to be developed in the long run. Opportunities: With new airports and up-gradation of existing airports on the anvil opportunities exist for various organizations including those involved in airport management, terminal construction and design, passenger and cargo handling, strengthening and extension of runways, aprons, aircraft parking stands, taxiways and aerobridges. This growth potential, coupled with the government's decision to allow private sector participation in the running of five key airports as also in airport modernization, ground services, aircraft manufacture, makes India a very attractive market for airport and avionics equipment manufacturers and service providers. The Government of India policy to liberalise the civil aviation market also presents foreign firms with significant export and investment opportunities. Also, CAPA estimates India will need a further 3,000 pilots. There will a sharp rise in demand for trained cabin crew not only for the domestic airlines, but also for international carriers," said Sapna Gupta, chief consultant of the Air Hostess Academy. " In the entire Asia-Pacific region, the total human resource requirement in the civil aviation industry will be to the tune of 94,705.