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Introduction
The word venture in the phrase venture capital is a romantic euphemism for risk. But thats not to say that every new startup business is a gamble. One gambles with the expectation of loss, and the delight of having cheated expectations when one wins. Taking risks, on the other hand, comes with the expectation of success. If you fail, it often means that the risk was not properly managed. If venture capital rms dont expect to win, they dont take the risk. But in just the past few years, that risk has been transformed for startup companies. To gain insight into the current environment for startups, and how emerging growth companies (EGCs) can best manage growth and risk, we gathered a panel of six prominent venture capitalists:
DUNCAN DAVIDSON
SATISH DHARMARAJ
BRAD FELD
Managing Director, Bullpen Capital; founder, Xumii Inc.; founder, SkyPilot Networks; founder, Covad Communications
BULLPEN CAPITAL
General Partner, Redpoint Ventures; former CEO, Zimbra communications and collaboration platform (purchased by Yahoo in 2007 for $350 million)
REDPOINT VENTURES
Managing Director, Foundry Group; chair, National Center for Women & Information Technology; former CTO, AmeriData Technologies
FOUNDRY GROUP
Initial fund size: $50 million Headquarters: Menlo Park, Calif. Portfolio includes Appboy mobile application management platform, Chart.io cloud-based business analytics, Byliner e-book discovery platform, Backyard local video advertising platform
Fund size: $500+ million Headquarters: Menlo Park, Calif. Portfolio includes Net ix streaming video network, Fortinet corporate security, Path mobile social network platform, Cloud.com infrastructure management platform
Fund size: $100+ million Headquarters: Boulder, Colo. Portfolio includes Cheezburger Network entertainment media publisher, Federated Media Publishing Web advertising platform, Zynga social gaming platforms, TopSpin marketing software provider
DAVID HORNIK
JOHN LILLY
KATE MITCHELL
Partner, August Capital; lecturer, Stanford Graduate School of Business; entrepreneurship lecturer, Harvard Law School; former intellectual property attorney, Venture Law Group
AUGUST CAPITAL
Partner, Greylock Partners; former CEO, Mozilla Corporation; former senior research scientist, Apple Computer
GREYLOCK PARTNERS
Managing Director, Scale Venture Partners (ScaleVP); former chair, National Venture Capital Association; former chair, IPO Task Force, United States Dept. of the Treasury
SCALE VENTURE PARTNERS
Fund size: $1+ billion; Headquarters: Menlo Park, Calif. Portfolio includes Ebates Internet shopping portal, StumbleUpon website discovery platform, ThreatMatrix device identi cation system, SAY Media software producer for media management (publisher of this report)
Fund size: $1+ billion Headquarters: Menlo Park, Calif. Portfolio includes Tumblr social sharing platform, Dropbox cloud-based storage platform, Groupon discountdiscovery system, Pandora music-discovery system
Size: $255 million; Headquarters: Foster City, Calif. Portfolio includes Box. net cloud services, Enpirion Semiconductor, ExactTarget interactive marketing, NComputing desktop virtualization
1,272 324
Source: U.S. Treasury Dept. IPO Task Force brie ng, December 2011
But the decline in IPOs masks a more complex picture. Instead of going public, more and more tech startups are getting bought by established players.
Source: Dow Jones Venture One via Wilmer Hale Venture Capital Market Review 2011
From 2002 until 2010, investors found growth primarily through acquisitions, fundamentally changing the role of the IPO as a measure of success and thus of risk. In an August 2011 study by the Treasury Departments IPO Task Force, 86% of the 35 public company CEOs surveyed agreed that going public was not as attractive an option as it had been in 1995.
There are two theories as to whats behind the continued lack of IPOs. One theory suggests that a tightened regulatory environment intended to increase transparency for large rms ended up creating undue strain for new rms. In the IPO Task Force survey, CEOs of startups reported spending an average of $2.5 million in administrative costs associated with preparing to go public. Some 40% of those costs could be reduced, the task force estimated, through relaxation of SEC reporting requirements.
The other theory is that the turbulent global economy has led to rapidly uctuating market conditions, making startup companies worth more as an acquired division of a larger rm than as an independent entity.
Source: Where Have All the IPOs Gone by Prof. Jay R. Ritter, et al, March 13, 2012
Produced by professors from the University of Florida and two leading Hong Kong universities, the study is the basis for the chart above, which compares two groups of companies: U.S. rms with less than $250 million in annual sales within three years of their IPO (lighter), and more seasoned U.S. rms that are more than three years past their IPO also with less than $250 million in annual sales (darker). The percentages represent the relative number of companies in both groups that reported positive earnings per share in the given year. While the trend is down for both groups over time, its very clear that happens well beyond the rst three years of life that companies do not show earnings growth out of the IPO gate.
1
The emergence of new crowdfunding sources capital funds that are usually somewhat smaller than VC funds, pooled together through small investments via a website or social network. These new funds are making smaller amounts of seed money available, enabling the formation of larger numbers of smaller startups.
2
A new and sometimes chaotic force, sometimes dubbed discovery e ects channels, but more commonly known as app stores. These channels help developers quickly and cheaply deploy new applications to dynamic and thriving platforms and markets on a global scale.
3
The passage of a law creating a new classi cation for U.S. startups: emerging growth companies rms in the rst ve years of existence with less than $1 billion of annual revenue. The JOBS Act, signed into law in April 2012, entitles EGCs to relaxed regulation and reporting requirements, reducing the cost of going public.
4
A turbulent global economy pockmarked by European bailouts, the Japanese tsunami, con ict in Syria and the Middle East and the continued fallout from the banking and mortgage crises in the U.S.is turning institutional investors attention away from startups.
Just since 2009, the very de nition of a startup company has been altered. With it, the role of the venture capitalist is itself in transformation a kind of disruption that VCs never expected would happen to them.
2002 2 14 27%
2003 9 16 53%
2004 21 23 91%
2005 43 39 109%
The statement that its common knowledge that a growth path that leads to M&A is by de nition short-term, doesnt seem right to me at all. I dont think this is common knowledge, and I think [looking for an M&A exit] is a terrible way for entrepreneurs to approach building their businesses. If their hope is they create something exciting in a year or two and then a big company buys them, its unlikely that theyll actually be creating something particularly interesting. However, if a big company appears in a year or two after they get started and wants to buy them for the people, the product, the users or customers, or some other reason thats something thats always going to be interesting, and at least worth considering. Note the causality: The entrepreneurs dont set out to build something that gets bought quickly. They set out to build something signi cant, and that attracts someones attention.
Feld notes M&A events can occur at any time in a companys life cycle. Many companies grow on their own for decades, and eventually end up being acquired. Others like Autonomy, which found itself acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2011 are public companies for several years before being bought. Still others take a path such as SuccessFactors, which was acquired by SAP just four years after its IPO. Other VCs report similar variations in growth patterns.
certain: You have nowhere to go but up. In which case, there is an opportunity for double- and triple-digit growth on a sustained basis, year after year. Its not just the rate of growth thats variable. So is the right way to measure growth. The rise of app stores can make that even more important.
And sometimes, VCs look at growth not by the numbers, but in terms of people and attitudes and ambitions.
Today, says Davidson, the funding rounds may look a bit more like this:
TYPICAL FUNDING ROUNDS FOR U.S. STARTUPS
Incubator round Accelerator round Seed fund round Super-angel round (Bullpen) Series A
Source: Duncan Davidson, Bullpen Capital
The Takeaways
Balancing growth and risk in the new economy isnt easy for anyone, and its especially challenging for startups. But these rules of thumb can begin to help demystify the choices.
2. YOUR OBJECTIVE AND YOUR FUNDERS ENDGAME NEED NO LONGER BE THE SAME MILESTONE.
Sure, a VC may want to exit and turn your company over to public ownership or perhaps a private parent. But that doesnt have to mean the end of your involvement with your company you dont have to exit just because the VC does.
4. TAKE GOOD ADVICE, SEEK VALUABLE COUNSEL, BUT DONT OUTSOURCE YOUR WISDOM.
Prospective sources of capital are looking for folks who can learn from their mistakes in the early going. Theyre looking for companies that recognize and repeat their successes, and that recognize failures fast and nip them in the bud.
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