WHATS AT STAKEIMPACTS ON LAND AND PEOPLE

Acqua Alta in Venice

Loud, pieicing siien blasts signal appioaching exceptionally high watei
(acqua alta, in Italian) when the tide ieaches oi exceeds 140 centimeteis
(55inches)abovethe1897iefeiencedatum.Movableiaisedplankwalkways
aie iapidly installed acioss the plazas, shopkeepeis and hotel owneis place
sandbags acioss theii dooiways, and people don hip-high boots (g. 9.1).
TehightideiisesabovethecanalsandsweepsaciossthePiazzaSanMaico
anddownthenaiiowstieetsandalleysofthishistoiic,ait-lledcity.Atide
of 140 centimeteis oi moie submeiges moie than half the city. Te most
iecentsuchevent(atthetimeofwiiting)occuiiedonChiistmasDay,2009
(at145centimeteis).Howevei,theiecoidwassetonNovembei4,1966,at
194 centimeteis(76inches),oodingmoiethan80peicentofVenice!Tis
seveieoodinspiiedtheMOSEpioject(ModuloSpeiimentaleElettiomec-
canico, oi Expeiimental Electiomechanical Module), also named aftei the
biblicalMoses,whichwasdesignedtopiotectVeniceanditssuiioundings
withaneectiveseadefensesystem.
9
CopingwiththeRisingWateis
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222 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Acqua alta events occui when southeasteily siiocco oi noitheasteily
boia winds combine with astionomical high tides to diive the waves in
the naiiow, ielatively shallow Adiiatic Sea towaid Venice. Te fiequency
of a veiy intense 110-centimetei tide (which tiiggeis the alaim system)
incieased fiom once eveiy 2 yeais to appioximately 4 times pei yeai dui-
ing the 20th centuiy.
I
Eustatic sea level iise alone did not push the wateis
highei. Land subsidence due to natuial causes (tectonics, compaction, and
sedimentloading),gioundwateimining(especiallybetween1930and1970),
andaiticialchannelsandjettiesintheneaibyindustiialpoitofPoitoMai-
gheia added to the toll. Coastal scientist Lauia Caibognin at the Institute
of Maiine Sciences in Venice and hei colleagues foiesee that a iise in sea
level of a meie 20 centimeteis (8 inches) could tiiggei the alaims foi a
110-centimetei tide as often as 21 times a yeai. With a 50-centimetei (20-
inch) iise, high tides would iecui 250 times a yeai!
2
Te city would soon
becomeunlivable.
Figure 9.1 Acqua alta in Venice. The ooded Piazza San Marco with raised walkways. (Photo:
JoMa, Sept. 18, 2009, Wikimedia Commons.)
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Facing an Expanding Ocean
WhiletheexpeiienceofVenicemayseemunusual,evenexceptional,today
aconsequenceofitsuniquegeophysicalsetting,meteoiology,andhistoiy
many coastal cities can expect to face a similai situation in the futuie. Te
ist tioubling manifestation of a iising sea will not be the giadual, baiely
peiceptible inciease in aveiage watei height but iathei the moie fiequent
high tides accompanying coastal stoims that iepeatedly ood low-lying
neighboihoods. Foimeily iaie events will become commonplace and moie
damagingasthewateilapseveihigheiandfaitheiinland,evenwithnosig-
nicantchangeinstoiminess.
How many people would confiont the iising wateis How can we iede-
signouicoastalcitiesandcioplandstopiotectusfiomtheencioachingsea
Westaitbyestimatingthenumbeiofpeopleatiiskfoioodingoipeima-
nentinundationandthenoutlineanumbeiofstiategiesfoicoexistingwith
ahigheiocean.
Eventoday,thecoastisaninheientlyhazaidousplace,subjecttothefuiy
ofwind,waves,andwatei.Tesuigeandheavywavesfiomamajoistoimcan
ie-sculpttheshoielinebyscouiingduneiidges,washingsandoshoie,cut-
tingnewinlets,andiedepositingsandonspitsandelsewheie.Smallhouses
canbesweptouttoseaandlaigeibuildingsseiiouslydamaged.Teseiisks
willlikelyescalateastheoceanclimbsielentlesslyupwaid.
Fuitheimoie,weaieonacollisioncouisebetweeniapidwoildwidecoastal
developmentandintensifyingmaiitimehazaids.Migiationofpeopletowaid
the coast has iapidly acceleiated evei since the expansion of inteinational
tiade duiing the colonial peiiod, and especially in todays globalized econ-
omy.TwopeicentoftheEaithslandaiealiesatoibelow10meteis(33 feet),
butholds10peicentofthetotalpopulationand13peicentoftheuibanpop-
ulation.
3
Manyofthewoildslaigest,mostpopulouscitiessitalongthecoast
and iisk both peimanent and episodic ooding of low-elevation neighboi-
hoods.Tiiteenoutofthe20mostpopulatedcitiesinthewoildaieseapoits,
vitaltointeinationalcommeice.Chinaexempliestheseawaidiesettlement
ofpopulationanduibanization,laigelystimulatedbyitseconomicpolicies.
4

Te low topogiaphy of deltas makes them especially vulneiable to sea

level iise (see g. 8.7). Many deltas aie also sinking because of geological
and anthiopogenic piocesses (e.g., see chaptei 8). As a iesult, 85 peicent
of deltas aie tempoiaiily aected by seveie ooding coveiing moie than
260,000 squaie kilometeis.
3
Majoi deltaic cities include Dhaka, Shanghai,
Guangzhou,HoChiMinhCity(Saigon),Bangkok,andRotteidam,manyof
whichaieaectedbyanomalouslyhighiatesofielativesealeveliise(laigely
due to land subsidence). Examples include the Chao Phiaya Delta, neai
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224 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Bangkok, Tailand (13150 millimeteis pei yeai) and the Yangtze Delta,
neaiShanghai,China(328millimeteispeiyeai).
6
Tefeitilityofdeltaicsoil
suitsthemfoigiowingessentialfoodciops.Ciops,suchasiicepaiticulaily
inAsia,aiethieatenednotonlybyextiemecoastaloodingbutbyincieas-
ingsaltwateiintiusionasseawateigiaduallyencioachesfaitheiupestuaiies
andiiveis.
Establishinganaccuiatecountoftheglobalpopulationandaieaexposed
tofutuiesealeveliiseispioblematicbecausemanyiegionslacksuciently
accuiate topogiaphic and demogiaphic data and because of inconsisten-
cies among data sets. Diveigent denitions exist foi the high iisk zone
andassociatedpopulationsandaieas.Teiefoie,iesultsmaynotbediiectly
compaiable.
A common yaidstick of inundation iisk is the 1-in-100-yeai (oi just
100-yeai)ood,whichhasapiobabilityofexceedingaceitainheightonce
a centuiy, oi in othei woids, a 1 peicent chance of occuiiing in any given
yeai.Asof2005,about40millionuibaninhabitantsweieexposedtoa1-in-
100-yeaicoastalood.
7
Cuiiently,thetop10citiesmostvulneiabletosuch
a ood, ianked by population, aie Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Ho Chi
Minh City (Saigon), Calcutta, the New Yoik City metiopolitan iegion, To-
kyo,Tianjin,Bangkok,andDhaka.Tisuibanpopulationislaigelyconcen-
tiated in Asia. Te top 10 cities ianked by assets (buildings, tianspoit and
utilities infiastiuctuie, and othei long-lived stiuctuies) aie Miami, gieatei
NewYoikCity,NewOileans,Osaka-Kobe,Tokyo,Amsteidam,Rotteidam,
Nagoya,ViiginiaBeach,andShanghaiieectingthegieateiconcentiation
ofwealthinthedevelopednations.
TemostvulneiablecitiesofthefutuiealsoliepiedominantlyinAsia.If
sealeveliisesby0.5meteibythe2070s,thetop10exposedcitiesbypopu-
lation become Calcutta, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City
(Saigon),Shanghai,Bangkok,Rangoon,Miami,andHaiPhong.
8
Rankedby
assets, the cities aie Miami, Guangzhou, gieatei New Yoik City, Calcutta,
Shanghai,Mumbai,Tianjin,Tokyo,HongKong,andBangkok,ieectingthe
piojectedgiowthinpopulationandwealthinAsiancities.
In the United States (excluding the Gieat Lakes), 8.4 million people (oi
appioximately3peicentofthe2000population)iesidewithinthe1-in-100-
yeaioodzone,oiSpecialFloodHazaidAiea.
9
Telaigestpopulationat
iiskisconcentiatedalongtheAtlanticCoast,withFloiidaasthemostvul-
neiable state. Both the Gulf and the Pacic Coasts (including Alaska) face
ioughlythesamedegieeofiiskinteimsofexposedaiea.
Anothei measuie of inundation iisk delineates the population living be-
low a specied elevation. One iecent study nds that a 5-metei iise would
potentiallyaect670millionpeople(10.8peicent)andsubmeige5.4million
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 225
squaie kilometeis.
Iu
A 10-metei iise would aect 871 million people and
diown6.3millionsquaiekilometeis.Anotheiiepoitplacestheglobalpopu-
lation in the coastal zone below 10 meteis elevation at 634 million people
ovei2.7millionsquaiekilometeis.
II
Whilesealevelisquiteunlikelytoap-
pioach this height within this centuiy, seveie stoim suiges could oveitop
it in some places. Teiefoie, the 10-metei elevation, as an extieme uppei
bound,allowsacomfoitablemaiginofsafetyfoipiotectivemeasuies.
Giventhelaigeunceitaintiesinglobal-scaledemogiaphicandtopogiaphic
datasets,theseguiescanpiovideonlyveiyioughestimatesofvulneiability
to sea level iise. Fuitheimoie, these estimates aie based on cuiient coastal
populationsanddonotconsideifutuiedisplacementsofpeople,economic
losses,oicostsofcoastalpiotection.Astudythatincoipoiatessomeofthese
factoisoutlinestheconsequencesofacollapseoftheWestAntaicticIceSheet
(WAIS).Assumingatiny(yetnon-zeio)chancefoia5-metei (16-foot)sea
leveliisein100yeaisduetoWAIScollapse,asmanyas410millionpeople
would be exposed to sea level iise at high tide.
I2
Undei such diie ciicum-
stances, 350,000 people pei yeai would be foiced to migiate, displacing up
to15millionby2130,inthewoistpossiblecase.Withoutcoastalpiotection
andlossofincomeintheaectedzone,monetaiylossescouldiangebetween
$2.4and$3.3tiillionGDP.Neveitheless,uptoathiidofthewoildscoasts
wouldbedeemedwoithyofsaving,inspiteofthehighpiotectioncosts.
An MIT computei model analysis piedicts futuie economic activity,
gieenhousegasemissions,andiesultingclimatechangetocalculatecapital
losses,piotectioncosts,andwetlandlosses.
I3
Foialineaiiiseinsealevelto
2100,globalcostsincuiiedtotal$1.99tiillion(in1995U.S.dollaisexpiessed
aspuichasingpoweipaiity,PPP).Howevei,thesecostsiepiesentanuppei
bound, since sea level is likely to iise in a nonlineai (quadiatic) fashion, in
whichcasemostdamagesoccuilateiinthecentuiy,postponingthebulkof
thecosts(g.9.2).
I4

Figure 9.2 Exponential versus linear

sea level rise. (After Sugiyama et al.,
2008.)
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226 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
LIVING WITH THE SEAADAPTING TO HIGHER WATER
AsthesituationinVeniceshows,evenafaiilysmalliiseinielativesealevel
gieatly amplies damages fiom spoiadic stoim oods. While some moie
auent, piogiessive communities oi nations may be pioactive, developing
adaptationplansandmeasuiesfaiaheadofimmediatedangeitocoastalies-
idents,mosttownsoiindividualswilllikelytakeactiononlyafteiiepeated
incidentsofseveiecoastaloodingoibeachandwetlandloss.
Coping with a iising sea can take many dieient foims. Some steps can
be implemented iapidly, aftei the next majoi stoim leaves damage and de-
stiuctioninitswake,whileotheismayiequiiealaigeinvestmentinvolving
long-teimplanningandimplementation.
Inthecontextofsealeveliise,adaptationmeanstakingappiopiiatesteps
to minimize the thieat of inundation. Adaptation can follow thiee basic
pathways:
I. Piotection
2. Accommodation
3. Retieat
Protection
Hard Solutions
Shoieline piotection entails building stiuctuies oi augmenting natuial fea-
tuies to withstand cuiient and anticipated shoieline ietieat, stoim suige,
and sea level iise. It ianges fiom aimoiing the shoieline with haid de-
fensestosoftdefensesthatmimicnatuialpiocesses.Shoielineaimoiingis
typically applied to defend substantial assets. Haid stiuctuies include sea-
walls, bulkheads, bouldei iampaits ( revetments, riprap), gioins, jetties,
andbreakwaters(seeg.8.11).Teistthieetypesofstiuctuiesmaintain
theexistingshoielinebypieventingslumpingoiiemovalofsoft,pooilycon-
solidatedsediments.Tefoitiedshoiewithstandsaveiagesuigeandwave
heightsbutstilliisksoveitoppingbyextiemeevents.Gioinsandjettiesex-
tendoutwaidandtiapsand,wideningthebeach(butoftenintensifyingeio-
sion downdiift). Bieakwateis sheltei a haiboi oi beach fiom extieme wave
action,butifpooilydesignedcouldalsoinduceeiosion.
Haidstiuctuiessuchasseawallsandievetmentssafeguaidagainstood-
ingandstoimsuiges,butmayintensifyeiosionatthefootofthewall.Place-
mentofiubblemayhelpieducethis.Unlesstheseengineeieddefensesaie
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 227
caiefully adapted to local conditions, they may exaceibate coastal eiosion
downdiift of littoial cuiients, oi undeimine the embankment by washing
outsedimentfiombeneaththestiuctuie.
Othei stiuctuies such as dikes, tidal gates , and storm surge barriers
piotect against extieme oods oi peimanent inundation. Te high walls of
dikes hold back the sea, but low-lying teiiain behind the dike may need to
bepumpeddiy.Tidalgatesopenandclosewiththetides,enablingwateito
diainoutatlowtide.Stoimsuigebaiiieiscloseonlyduiingextiemesuiges
oi tides, allowing shipping to continue at othei times. Inasmuch as these
coastaldefensesweiedesignedfoicuiientsealevelandstoiminess,existing
stiuctuieswouldneedtobeietiotted,foiexamplebyiaisingtheheightof
seawalls, dikes, tidal gates, etc., oi ieinfoicing them to iesist stiongei and
higheiwaves.Tedesignofnewstiuctuiesneedstoaccommodateamuch
higheiwateilevel(i.e.,ielativesealeveliiseplusstoimsuige,hightide,and
waves).
Defending Holland from the Sea
Much of the southwestein pait of the Netheilands is a low-lying delta
laigely built up by sediments deposited by thiee majoi iiveisthe Rhine,
the Meuse, and the Scheldt.
I3
Evei since the Middle Ages, the Dutch have
been piotecting theii nation fiom the iavages of the sea. In the 1930s, a
damtheAfsluitdijkclosedotheZuideizee(ZuideiSea),alaigeshallow
embayment of the Noith Sea. Tis pioject, designed foi sea defenses, land
ieclamation, and watei diainage management, tiansfoimed the Zuideizee
intotheIJsselmeei(IJsselLake).
TedisastiousNoithSeaoodof1953left300,000peoplehomelessand
caused 1,800 deaths.
I6
Tat event piompted the development of the Delta
Woiks,whichconsistsofaseiiesofdams,suigebaiiieis,dikes,andsluices
along the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt delta, which closed o some of the estua-
iineoutletstothesea.TeDutchsettheacceptableiisklevelsofdikefail-
uieas1in10,000yeaisfoiNoithandSouthHolland,otheihigh-iiskaieas
at 1 in 4,000 yeais, and South Holland iivei ooding at 1 in 1,250 yeais.
TeistopeiationalDeltaWoiksstoimbaiiieiaciosstheHollandseIJssel
Rivei, completed in 1958, piotects densely populated westein Netheilands
(theRandstad)fiomooding,itwaslateifollowedbytheEasteinSchelde
stoimsuigebaiiieiin1986.Inaddition,existingdamsweieiaisedanddikes
ieinfoiced. Completed in 1997, a movable baiiieithe Maeslant Baiiiei
closes o the New Wateiway (Nieuwe Wateiweg) whenevei a high stoim
suigethieatensthecityofRotteidam,upstieam,andthesuiioundingdikes
(g.9.3).
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228 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Asimpiessiveastheseengineeiingwoiksappeai,theyhavebeendesigned
towithstandasealeveliiseofjust2050centimeteis(920inches)peicen-
tuiy.
I7
As sea level iises, baiiiei closuies will become moie fiequent. An
85-centimeteiiisewouldfoicetheMaeslantBaiiieitocloseappioximately
3 timesayeai,a1.3-meteiiisewouldleadtoanaveiageof7closuiespeiyeai.
Te2008DeltaCommitteeiepoitdevelopedalong-teimpiogiamtopio-
tectthenationscoastandinteiioi.Existingoinewstoimsuigebaiiieismust
withstandawoist-casescenaiioofiegionalsealeveliiseof0.651.3meteis
(2.14.3feet)by2100,andupto24meteis(6.613feet)by2200.
I8
Piesent
oodpiotectionstandaidsinthedikedaieasmustbeiaisedtenfoldby2050.
Piojectstoieinfoiceweaklinksinthecuiientdikesystemaiewellundei
way.Onesuchweaklink,foiexample,isthecoastaliesoittownofScheve-
ningen, neai Te Hague, wheie a massive new dike 1 kilometei (0.6 miles)
longand12meteis(39feet)highisundeiconstiuction(g.9.4).Asweeping
newboulevaidwilloveitopmostofthedike.Bioadstaiiwaysensuieieady
access to the beach, which is also being widened to dampen the powei of
Figure 9.3 Northern half of the Maeslant Barrier storm surge barrier. (Photo: Joop van Houdt,
Sept. 8, 2010. Wikimedia Commons).
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 229
the waves. Residents of buildings alieady lining the top of the dike enjoy a
teiiicseasidevista.
Inadditiontomaiineincuisions,theNetheilands,likemanyotheidelta
iegions, faces iivei ooding as well. Winteis aie expected to giow wettei
whilesummeisbecomediiei.Teiefoie,wateimanagementneedstodefend
againstbothinlandandcoastaloodingandalsoensuieanadequatewatei
supply duiing diy spells. New developments beyond the dikes will be de-
signednottointeifeiewithiiveidischaigeoilakewateilevels.
Other Hard Defenses
THE THAMES BARRIER, LONDON Te Noith Sea stoim that iavaged the Nethei-
lands in 1953 also caused 300 deaths in the United Kingdom and pushed
the Biitish goveinment into investigating means of defending London
against futuie ooding. Te Tames Baiiiei, essentially completed in 1982
and ocially dedicated by Queen Elizabeth II in 1984, piotects 125 squaie
Figure 9.4 Raising the dikes and widening the beach, Scheveningen, the Netherlands. (Photo:
V. Gornitz, 2010.)
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230 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
kilometeis of cential London fiom extieme tidal suiges (g. 9.5). Te bai-
iiei spans 520 meteis (1,700 feet) acioss the Tames and consists of foui
61-metei (200-foot) and two neaily 30-metei (100-foot) navigable sections
and seveial smallei non-navigable channels between a seiies of pieis and
abutments.Undeinoimalconditions,theiotating,ciiculaigatesallowship-
ping to pass. A meteoiological foiecast of watei levels exceeding 4.85 me-
teisincentialLondonduetoacombinationofhightides,stoimsuige,and
iivei ow tiiggeis an oidei to initiate a ood baiiiei closuie. Houis befoie
high watei ieaches London, wainings aie issued to stop iivei tiac, close
subsidiaiy gates, and advise othei iivei useis. Te Tames Baiiiei iemains
closeduntilthetideiecedes.Tebaiiieialsoclosesafteiheavyiainswestof
London pioduce oodwateis. Rivei ooding caused a thiid of the closuies
upto 2009.
I9

Regional sea level has been iising at a iate close to 20 centimeteis

(8 inches)peicentuiy,duetoglacialieboundandiecentclimatewaiming.
Since completion, the Tames Baiiiei closed foui times duiing the 1980s,
35 times in the 1990s, and 75 times between 2000 and 2010.
2u
Because the
Figure 9.5 The Thames Barrier, London. The gates close whenever water levels are predicted
to exceed 4.85 meters (16 feet) in central London. (Photo: Arpingstone, Sept. 26, 2005,
Wikimedia Commons.)
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 231
iiskofbaiiieifailuieincieaseswiththenumbeiofclosuies,themaximum
iecommendedlimitis50baiiieiclosuiespeiyeai.Althoughthebaiiieiwas
builttowithstandpiojectedsealeveliiseuntilaiound20602070,iecentsea
levelpiojectionsdemonstiatetheneedfoiieinfoicingthetidaldefensesys -
tem soon.
TeTamesEstuaiy2100plananticipatesasealeveliisebetween20and
88centimeteisintheTamesestuaiy,baseduponBiitishMetOceHad-
leyCentiemodels.Howevei,giventhelaigeunceitaintyinfutuiepolaiice
melt(seechaptei7),asealeveliiseofupto2meteisby2100,althoughun-
likely,cannotbeiuledout.Inawoist-casescenaiio,anextiemesuigelevel
of 0.7 meteis could biing the watei height to 2.7 meteis at the entiance to
the estuaiy. In piepaiation, the Tames Estuaiy 2100 plan iecommends a
thiee-stageexibleiesponseappioach:
1. 20102035. Maintain cuiient ood defenses and undeitake necessaiy
impiovements to the system beyond 2035. Monitoi sea level and climate
change and ievise plans accoidingly. Cieate new habitat aieas foi wetland
migiation.
2. 20352070. Reinfoice and ieplace cuiient defense netwoik along the
TamesRivei.Makenaldecisiononbuildinganewbaiiiei(oiselectaltei-
nate options, e.g., ieinfoice and maintain cuiient system) and begin plan-
ningstage.Continuetomonitoisealeveliise.
3. 20702100. Constiuct the new Tames Baiiiei (oi alteinate options).
Modifydefensesasneededtokeepnewbaiiieiclosuieswithinopeiational
limits.
MOSE, VENICE Recognizing the thieat that moie fiequent acqua alta events
pose to its iiieplaceable aitistic and histoiic heiitage, the goveinment-
fundedVeniceWateiAuthoiityandConsoizioVeneziaNuovahavedecided
to piotect the suiiounding lagoon by building the MOSE system of tidal
gates.Constiuctionbeganin2003andisexpectedtobecompletedby2014.
Otheipiotectivemeasuiesincludeiaisingquaysidesandpavementsandie-
infoicingtheshoie.
MOSE consists of a set of 78 mobile gates acioss the thiee tidal inlets
into the Venetian Lagoon (g. 9.6). When not in use, the gates fold at on
the seaooi and thus do not inteifeie with the noimal ow of tidal cui-
ientsoiwithshipping.Wheneveitidesabove1.1meteisaiepiedicted,the
gates aie emptied of watei using compiessed aii, which makes them iotate
untiltheyemeigefiomthewatei,tempoiaiilyblockingthehighwateifiom
enteiing the lagoon. Te gates aie designed foi a sea level iise of 60 centi-
meteis, but can piotect Venice fiom high watei of up to 3 meteis
2I
when
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232 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
iaisedabovetheiioptimumslopeof45.Tesystemishighlyexible.Foian
exceptional event, gates at all thiee inlets can be closed simultaneously, oi
alteinatively,dependingonfoiecastwindsandtides,oneoitwogatescanbe
closedindependently.
Te pioject has geneiated much contioveisy. Enviionmentalists expiess
concein that by inteifeiing with noimal tidal ushing, the baiiieis might
incieasepollutionoidamagethefiagilehabitatofthelagoonwetlands,the
laigest in the Mediteiianean. Te authoiities iespond that enviionmental
impactswillbeminimal,sincethebaiiieiclosuiesaieinfiequentandofex-
tiemelybiiefduiationielativetothepeiiodsofopenexchangewiththesea.
Eectswouldbecompaiabletothoseexpeiiencedinthelagooneachmonth
duiing neap tides, oi low watei. Te lagoon is a highly iesilient enviion-
mentandanyadveiseimpactsfiomagivenclosuieeventwouldbeeiasedby
ushingoveiseveialtidalcycles.Howevei,wouldthemoiefiequentfutuie
acqua alta events aect the gates peifoimance and would enviionmental
Figure 9.6 The MOSE tidal gates, Venice. The gates swing up whenever tides exceed 1.1 me-
ter (3.6 feet.) (Credits: Ministry of Infrastructure and TransportVenice Water Authority, con-
cessionary Consorzio Venezia Nuova image archive.)
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 233
impactsstilliemainminimalWhatiftheseaclimbsabovetheanticipated
60-centimeteilevel
TIDAL BARRIERS, NEW YORK CITY Te New Yoik City metiopolitan aiea ianks
highamongcitiesmostexposedtocoastalooding.
22
Inspiteofitsnoitheily
location, tiopical cyclones occasionally sweep past the city. In 1821, a hui-
iicanepioducedasuigeof13feetin1houi,oodingloweiManhattanasfai
noithasCanalStieet.In1893,anotheihuiiicaneoodedsoutheinBiooklyn
andQueens,wipingoutasmallbaiiieiislandotheRockaways.Tieema-
joi huiiicanes pummeled adjacent Long Island and New Jeisey duiing the
20th centuiy: the Long Island Expiess (1938), Huiiicane Donna (1960),
and Huiiicane Gloiia (1985). Even wintei stoims (such as the Decembei
1992noieastei)causeextensiveoodinginlow-lyingneighboihoodsand
seiiouslydisiuptgioundandaiitianspoitation.
23

Futuiesealeveliisewouldgieatlyincieaseuibanooding.DouglasHill,
consulting engineei, states: New Yoik City is piesently planning to be
ooded, not to pievent being ooded. Te solution, accoiding to Hill and
hiscolleaguesatStonyBiookUniveisity,istobuildasetofthieestoimsuige
baiiieis at naiiow points to piotect the nancial distiict of lowei Manhat-
tan and paits of adjacent Biooklyn, Queens, including LaGuaidia Aiipoit,
andtheBionx(g.9.7).
24
AciosstheHudsonRivei,thebaiiieiswouldshield
Hoboken,JeiseyCity,andNewaik,includingNewaikInteinationalAiipoit.
A pieliminaiy study, using advanced meteoiological and hydiodynamic
modelingtosimulateanactualhuiiicane(HuiiicaneFloyd)andanoieastei
(Decembei 1992), showed that all thiee baiiieis togethei could pievent
ooding fiom stoim suiges. Te ooding fiom iainfall iuno behind the
baiiieiswasdeemedinsignicant.
23

Evenifcostandenviionmentalconceinsweiesetaside,thebaiiieiswould
not piotect the entiie city. Laige sections of Staten Island, Biooklyn, and
Queens, including JFK Inteinational Aiipoit, would still be vulneiable. In
addition,neaibycommunitiesonLongIslandSoundandthebaiiieiislands
along the Atlantic shoie lie beyond the scope of piotection. Fuitheimoie,
thestudydidnotinvestigateawoist-casescenaiioadiiectstiikebyaCat-
egoiy3oi4huiiicaneplusfutuiesealeveliiseathightide(iecallthatthe
Dutchplanfoithe1-in-10,000-yeaievent,theBiitishfoithe1-in-1,000-yeai
event).
As sea level iises, haid defenses would be peiiodically monitoied,
stiengthened, and iaised. Te timing and extent of woik would depend on
howfasttheseaiises,whichvaiiesgeogiaphically,asdiscussedpieviously.
In London, foi example, the defenses would be ieinfoiced within the next
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234 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
2560 yeais,withtheoptiontobuildanewbaiiieiafteithat.TeNethei-
landsisalieadyplanningtoupgiadeitsseadefensesystem.
Soft Solutions
Soft defenses have become a piefeiied means of shoie piotection in many
places, because of the negative impacts of haid stabilization on beaches.
Softdefensesincludebeach nourishmentandiehabilitationofdunesand
coastal wetlands. Healthy beaches and salt maishes not only oei iecie-
Figure 9.7 Location of proposed tidal barriers, New York City. (Hill, 2008; V. Gornitz et al.,
2002.)
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 235
ationaloppoitunitiesandimpoitanthabitatfoiawidevaiietyofwildlife,in-
cludingsh,shellsh,wateifowl,andsmallamphibians,ieptiles,andmam-
mals,butalsopiotectuplandsagainststoimsuigesandhighwaves.
Abioadbeachwithahighiidgeofhealthydunesactsastheistlineof
defense against the seas fuiy. Planting giasses and installing fences to tiap
sandstabilizesthedunes.Beachnouiishmentisanotheiimpoitantmethod
ofshoielinepiotection.Sandaddedfiomoshoieoiinlandsouicescanie-
place eiosional losses and be used to widen and iaise the beach. Te U.S.
East and Gulf Coasts have had a long histoiy of eiosion as a iesult of both
geological and anthiopogenic piocesses. Because of ongoing eiosion, sand
needs peiiodic ieplacement. Te East Coast, fiom New Yoik City to Key
West, Floiida, has undeigone numeious beach nouiishment piojects since
the 1920s. Te numbei of these piojects has acceleiated since the 1970s,
paitly because of gieatei fedeial goveinment involvement and paitly be-
causeofapolicyshiftawayfiomhaidstabilizationmethodsinfavoiofsoft
appioaches.Between1960and1996,appioximately$1.3billion(in1996dol-
lais) was spent on beach stabilization along the East Coast.
26
Cumulative
costshavetotaled$2.4billionnationallysincethe1920s.
27

Sea level iise will likely exaceibate eiosion, causing sand ieplacement
cycles to shoiten and beach nouiishment costs to inciease. Foi example,
one study suggests that beaches in the New Yoik City metiopolitan iegion
wouldiequiieupto26peicentadditionalvolumeofsand,foiasealeveliise
of60 centimeteisto1meteibythelatteihalfofthiscentuiy.
28
Asignicant
iiseinsealevelmayultimatelymakecontinuednouiishmentanoptionthat
iseconomicallyandphysicallyunfeasible.
Anextiemeexampleofbeachllistoiaiseanentiiebaiiieiisland,such
as in Galveston. Following the deadly 1900 huiiicane, suivivois decided to
iaisethebaiiieiislandandiemaininghouses.Moiethanacentuiylatei,on
Septembei 13, 2008, Huiiicane Ike caused consideiable piopeity damage
but ielatively few fatalities on the island, because most of the population
had been evacuated in time, thanks to satellite weathei maps and a much
impiovedwainingsystem.TehigheielevationandseawallsavedGalveston
fiom total destiuction (but not the ooding) this time. Because of costs,
suchmeasuieswillbefeasibleonlyfoifaiilysmall,denselypopulatedaieas.
AnotheiquestioniswhetheiGalvestonwouldfaieaswellin50to100yeais,
withhigheiseas,ifanotheiHuiiicaneIkeweietostiike.
Tidalsaltmaishesgeneiallykeeppacewithsealeveliise,exceptfoiiapid
subsidence(asinLouisianaandpaitsofChesapeakeBay),lowsedimentsup-
ply, oi alteied natuial biogeochemical cycles (e.g., Jamaica Bay, New Yoik
City).Becauseoftheecologicalseivicesthatsaltmaishespiovide,theiiin-
tegiity should be maintained wheievei feasible. Submeiging salt maishes
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236 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
canbeiestoiedbyaddingsedimentandieplantingmaishgiasses,sedges,oi
iushes to piotect against eiosion. Maish ieplanting, often with native veg-
etation,canbecombinedwithgioins,bieakwateis,oisubmeigedstonesills
toieinfoicethemaish.Coastaluplandscanbepieseivedasbueizonesfoi
futuielandwaidsaltmaishmigiation.
In tiopical iegions, intact mangioves, which shield the hinteiland fiom
theiavagesofstoimsuiges,shouldbepiotectedfiomdevelopmentandie-
plantedwheiepieviouslycleaied.
Livingshoielinesisafoimofcoastalmanagementthatmaintainsoisim-
ulates natuial piocesses.
29
Woiking with natuie fuitheimoie eectively safe-
guaidsthecoastfiomfutuiesealeveliise.Stiategicplacementofplants,stone,
sand, and othei mateiials tiaps sediments and ieduces wave eneigy, theieby
cutting beach eiosion and wetlands losses. Sand ieplenishment also extends
thebeachfaitheiseawaid.Newlyiestoiedduneiidgesandbeachesstiengthen
coastal defenses and piovide biid and wildlife habitat, as well as iecieational
oppoitunities.Foiexample,wideningandextendingtheduneiidgesseawaid
andieplantingwithnativevegetationbetweenTeHagueandHoekvanHol-
land,alongtheDelandcoast,hascieatedawholenewnatuiedistiict(g.9.8).
Figure 9.8 Dune replanting and beach nourishment, south coast of Holland. (Photo: V. Gor-
nitz, 2010.)
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 237
Accommodation
Aioundthewoild,moieandmoiebuildingsciowdthebeachessmallsum-
meicottagesoifamily-iunmotelsieplacedbymileafteimileofwall-to-wall
high-iise condos and laige hotels. As sea level continues its ielentless up-
waidclimb,coastalinhabitantswillhavetoaccommodatetoamoieaquatic
existence. Wheie coastal oods aie commonplace, buildings aie fiequently
constiucted on pilings oi ovei pieis (g. 9.9). Yet poweiful waves duiing
majoi stoims often topple many smallei houses oi sweep them out to sea,
stiltsandall.
Piovidinggeneiousspacefoiwateiieducesoodingiisks.Onewayisto
cieateattiactivegieen(well-vegetated)neighboihoodswithnatuialdiain-
age that enhances watei inltiation into the giound. Anothei is to build
undeigioundgaiagesthatalsostoieexcesswateiattimesofabove-aveiage
iivei oi sea level. Te design of watei-iobust buildings helps minimize the
impactsofextiemeoodsoiiainfall.Foiexample,gaiagesoiiecieationfa-
cilities(e.g.,gym,swimmingpool,gameioom,oichildiensplayspace)can
ieplace giound-ooi apaitments in multi-family dwellings. Second-stoiy
walkwayscanconnecttoadjacentiaisedstieetsoipaiks.
Figure 9.9 New homes on Westhampton Beach following the December 1992 noreaster.
(Photo: V. Gornitz, 1998.)
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238 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Floating buildings (like laige houseboats) iepiesent yet anothei mode of
livingwithahigheiwateilevel.TeFloatingPavilion,installedintheStads-
havensdistiictofRotteidaminJune2010,iepiesentsapiototypefoifutuie
oatingdistiicts.
3u

Low-lyingcoastalcitiesoftendevelopaioundaseiiesofcanals(theVe-
netiansolution).Whilethebest-knownexampleisVenice,otheicitieslike
Amsteidam, Biuges, Copenhagen, Suzhou, China, and foimeily Bangkok
(manyofitscoloifulcanalshavebeenlledandpavedoveiiniecentyeais,
asthecityhasmodeinized)alsoboastextensivecanalnetwoiks.Rotteidam
planstobuildadditionalmoatsandcanalstostoieexcessdischaigeattimes
ofhighwatei.Teexpandedcanalsystemcanalsoseiveasasupplementaiy
tianspoitationcoiiidoi.Recallingitslongmaiitimehistoiy,NewYoikCity
ieestablishesclosetiesbetweencitydwelleisandthewateibypiovidingad-
ditional open space and fiesh aii. In Manhattan, paiks, footpaths, and bi-
cyclepathwaysnowlinethewateifiont.
3I
Innovativehaiboiiedevelopment
pioposals include cieation of an aiticial island aichipelago using diedge
mateiial, oi ieconguiing the shoieline by ieducing the seawaid giadient
andcieatingnewwetlandsandpaiks.
32
Tesewillalsodampenwaveeneigy
andlessensuigeimpacts.
Te Ganges-Biahmaputia Delta of Bangladesh is one of the laige Asian
deltasmostvulneiabletosealeveliise,becauseofitsextent,lowelevation,
land subsidence, and laige iuial population. Exposed to both iiveiine and
coastal ooding, the delta expeiiences incieasing soil salinity. In oidei to
adapttoadveiseconditions,BangladeshsChaiDevelopmentandSettlement
Pioject Phase III aims to piovide piotection fiom saltwatei intiusion and
oodingbybuildingembankments,sluicegates,diainagechannels,piotec-
tive tiee belts, and cyclone shelteis, as well as impioving local economic
oppoitunities.
33
Replanting of mangioves on newly accieted land ieduces
eiosion,stabilizesthesoil,andshieldsagainstcyclonedamage.Inaddition,
faimeis aie encouiaged to plant ciops that aie moie salt-toleiant and to
switchtoshiimpfaiming.
Retreat
Defensivemeasuies,evenaccommodation,maybuytimeandhelpuscope
with neai futuie sea level iise and stoim suiges. Howevei, by oeiing an
illusionofpeimanentpiotectionagainsttheiisingsea,theyencouiagefui-
thei development in inheiently high-iisk aieas. It may ultimately become
impossibletodefendallheavilydevelopedshoielines,paiticulailyonbaiiiei
islandslinedwithhigh-iisecondosoutsideofmajoiuibancenteis.Beyond
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 239
a ceitain point, iepeated iebuilding aftei stoims oi even iaising land may
become too expensive oi ineective. Retieat may then become necessaiy.
Evenso,denselypopulatedcoastalmega-citieswillpiobablycontinuetobe
defendedatallcosts.Yetfoiesightedpiudentcoastalmanagementmayaveit
some of the adveise consequences long befoie a iising sea iendeis many
coastal aieas uninhabitable. Foi example, sensible land zoning would limit
housingdensityandbuildingsizeandsubstitutebueizonesofpaiks,iec-
ieationalfacilities,oilow-densitydevelopmentinhigh-iiskaieas.
Anumbeiofoptionsexisttolimitdevelopmentinhigh-iiskaieasandto
allowfoieventualietieat.Tegoveinmentmayacquiietitletothepiopeity
thiough eminent domain, oi the piopeity can be donated voluntaiily to a
conseivation oiganization. Othei measuies include the cieation of erosion
setbacks and easements that establish buei zones foi coastal wetlands oi
beaches.Buyout programsieimbuiseshoiefiontlandowneisfoiabandoning
piopeityinhigh-iiskzones.Howevei,thepublicbeaisthecost.
Setbacksiestiictshoieconstiuctionbasedoneiosionoielevationthiesh-
olds.InNoithCaiolina,foiexample,single-familyhousesandsmallstiuc-
tuiesmustbesetback30timesthehistoiicaveiageannualeiosioniate(oi
a minimum of 60 feet). Foi laigei stiuctuies (e.g., condos), the setback is
60timesthehistoiiceiosioniate.(Foieiosioniatesabove3.5feetpeiyeai,
the setback is 30 times the aveiage eiosion iate plus 105 feet).
34
Regula-
tions in Floiida limit constiuction seawaid of the 100-yeai ood zone and
piohibit new constiuction seawaid of the piojected 30-yeai eiosion zone.
Howevei,theseiegulationsaiepooilyenfoiced.Residentialunitsoneioding
Rhode Island baiiieis must be set back 30 times the aveiage annual eio-
sion iate, commeicial piopeities 60 times. Setbacks based on histoiic eio-
sion iates piesuppose a futuie continuation of those iatesunlikely, given
anticipated sea level iise. Accuiate histoiic eiosion data may not always
exist.
Becausesetbackshavebeenchallengedincouitastakings,
33
someothei
states, such as Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, South Caiolina, and
Texas, have instead adopted vaiiants of iolling easements.
36
Rolling ease-
mentsallowlandowneistoiemainontheiipiopeityanddevelopit,butpie-
vent aimoiing the shoie. As natuie takes its couise unimpeded, the ownei
may eventually be foiced to abandon the piopeity. In conservation ease-
ments ,aconseivationoiganizationsuchastheNatuieConseivancybuysthe
iighttopieventfuitheidevelopment,butthelandowneicanstilliemainon
theland.Giventhevoluntaiynatuieofeasements,adjacentlandcanstillbe
aimoied,buttheenhancedeiosiondowndiiftmaycancelanyconseivation
benets. Easements may not be veiy useful foi shoielines that aie alieady
heavilydeveloped.
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240 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Although designed foi cuiient conditions, these coastal management
piogiamscanbemodiedtoaccommodatehigheifutuieeiosioniatesand
widenedoodzones.
Teultimatestepis managed relocation .Somecoastalgeoscientists,such
asOiiinPilkeyandRobeitYoung,believethatiepeatedhaidshoielinestabi-
lizationandbeachnouiishmentwillbecomeuntenableastheseacontinues
itsielentlessshoiewaidadvance.Teyadvocateapolicyofpullingbackfiom
the shoie and ending nancial incentives to iebuild aftei stoims.
37
If you
stay,youpay,theysay.
Individualstiuctuiescanbemovedfaitheiinland,ashasbeendonemost
impiessively foi the histoiic Cape Hatteias Lighthouse, Noith Caiolina, in
1999(seechaptei8).Moiefiequently,housesaiemovedsometensofmeteis
landwaidwithinagivenshoiefiontpiopeity,oiotheibuildingsthieatened
byimminentcollapseduetocoastaleiosionaietoindown.
Some countiies aie beginning to take landwaid ielocation seiiously.
Gieat Biitain now views managed iealignment as a long-teim planning
tool,especiallyfoiestuaiiesandielativelyundevelopedland.
38
Tegovein-
mentiecognizesthatinthelongteimitwillbecomeuneconomictodefend
manysmallcommunitiesalongeiodingcoasts.Realignmententailsmov-
ing existing coastal defenses to a new inland position. It is also a way to
cieate space foi salt maishes and tidal mudats to migiate to as sea level
iises.InEnglandandWales,2.5millionpeopleliveincoastalaieaslessthan
5 meteisabovetheOidnanceDatum(thenationaldatumtowhichheights
above sea level aie iefeiied), 57 peicent of the piime agiicultuial land lies
belowthiselevation.
39
Asmaybeexpected,landowneisandcoastalmanag-
eis laigely oppose the concept. Geneially, people have a low peiception of
hazaidandiiskuntilafteidamagesoccui.Teunpopulaiityofsetbacksand
managediealignmenthasalsobeenblamedonineitia,scienticunceitain-
ties, a lack of public awaieness, and top-down decision making.
4u
Gieatei
stakeholdei involvement at the outset may, howevei, encouiage incieased
publicacceptance.
Coiton, a small iesoit village (pop. 1,000) on the east coast of England,
seives as an example of public attitudes towaid managed ielocation. Te
communitysitsatoppaitiallyvegetatedclisofsandybouldeiclay,sand,and
giavelsthataieeiodinginspiteofa1.5-metei-wideconcieteseawall,ievet-
ments,andgioins.
4I
Seveialhouseshavealieadytumbledintothesea.When
piesentedwithseveialchoices,iesidentsvigoiouslyopposeddoingnothing
tostiengthentheshoielineoiundeigoingmanagediealignmentandovei-
whelminglyfavoiedholdingthelineagainsttheseafoi50yeaisoilongei.
Teyfeaiedpotentiallossofhomesandbusinesses,alsolossofstionghis-
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 241
toiicalfamilytiestothevillage.Unawaieoftheiecentshiftincoastalpolicy,
they also expected the goveinment to piotect the shoieline against ood-
ingandeiosion.Afteiconsideiabledebate,acompiomisewasieached:the
shoiewouldbedefendedfoianothei20yeais(fiom2005)togiveiesidents
ampletimetoieadjust,butinthelongteim,cliscouldietieat,allowinga
moienatuialshoielinetoemeige.
PREPARATIONS BEGIN
Piepaiing foi sea level iise is much like buying insuiance. We buy home
insuiance foi potential damages due to ie, wind, theft, leaks, and othei
suchnatuialoihumandisasteis.TeU.S.FedeialEmeigencyManagement
Agency(FEMA)thioughitsNationalFloodInsuiancePiogiam(NFIP)oeis
huiiicane and ood insuiance to piopeity owneis living within a Special
FloodHazaidAiea(i.e.,the1-in-100-yeaioodzone)incommunitiesthat
complywithminimumfedeialoodpiotectionstandaids.
42
NFIPadjustsits
oodinsuianceiatesannually,basedonthelatesthydiologicaldata,includ-
ing histoiic (but not futuie) sea level iise, among othei factois.
43
Although
designedfoicuiienthazaids,NFIPsinsuianceiatescouldbemodiedtoie-
ectthechangingiisksposedbyenhancedcoastaleiosionandstoimood-
ingfiomaiisingsealevel.
Te optimal timing foi implementing coastal adaptation plans iemains
to be deteimined. Acting too soon may unnecessaiily inciease piesent-day
costs,ifsealeveliiseslessthananticipated,delayingtoolongmayalsocost
moie because of inteiim ood damages. Most shoie piotection measuies,
suchasiaisingdikesoiseawallsandexpandingbeachnouiishment,canbe
implemented within a few yeais, so that a delay may not be ciitical. How-
evei,advanceplanningbecomesmoieimpoitantfoinewbuildingsoiinfia-
stiuctuie with longei life spans. New houses can be built upon highei pil-
ings.Infiastiuctuiecanbehaidenedbyiaisingseawalls,elevatingioads,oi
buildingbiidgeshigheiaspaitofiegulaicapitalcycles,oiietiottedduiing
iegulai maintenance opeiations. Londons thiee-stage exible adaptation
pathwayappioach,pieviouslydiscussed,adjuststosealeveliiseunceitain-
ties.NewYoikCityisalsoadoptingasimilaiappioach.
Seveial coastal cities have alieady begun to haiden theii sea defenses
(the Tames Baiiiei in London and MOSE in Venice, foi example). Othei
foiwaid-thinkingcitiesaiebeginningtopiepaiefoiahigheisealevel,among
themRotteidamandNewYoikCity.
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242 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
A Tale of Two Cities: Rotterdam and New York City
Rotterdam
All the Dutch towns are amphibious, but some are more watery than others .
E. V. LUCAS, A WANDERER IN HOLLAND
Like many othei majoi poit cities, Rotteidam will be exposed to the con-
sequencesofsealeveliise.Teiefoieithasembaikedonanambitiousplan
to wateipioof the city, anticipating gieatei wintei iainfall (causing addi-
tional iiveiine ooding) and a potential sea level iise of up to 1.3 meteis
by2100(table9.1).Dutchwateimanagementhastiaditionallyemphasized
minimizing the coastal ood thieat with dikes, stoim suige baiiieis, and
beachnouiishment.Higheiwateilevelsincieaseoveiallmaintenancecosts,
baiiiei closings, and shipping disiuptions. Aieas outside the dikes become
moie vulneiable to ooding. Te Delta Committee theiefoie pioposes to
iaise cuiient ood iisk standaids by cieating a closable yet open Rhine
estuaiythioughnewmovableoodbaiiieisthatwoulddiveitwateiinde-
siied diiections depending on hydiaulic conditions. Othei options include
cieatingnewconnectionswithintheexistingnetwoikofcanalsandiiveisoi
evenentiielynewwateiways.Policyhasalsoiecentlyshiftedtowaidwoiking
closelywiththewatei.PiotectingRotteidamfiomsealeveliisestillentails
ieinfoicingitswateidefensesthedikesandtheneighboihoodsbeyondthe
dikes. But it also means appiopiiate spatial planning, constiucting watei-
adapted buildings, and allowing watei to diain oi to tempoiaiily ietain ex-
cessiainwatei.Laigeaieasofunembankedlanddesignatedfoifutuieuiban
expansionwillneedtobeiaisedby11.5meteistomeetthebaseoodlevel
iequiiementof3.9meteisabovetheAmsteidamOidnanceDatum.
44

Te Floating Pavilion is a haibingei of the oating distiicts planned foi

theStadshavenssectionofRotteidam.Floatinghomesexistinvaiiousplaces
aciossthewoild.Foiexample,thousandsofpeopleliveinsampansinHong
Kongshaiboi.Inmoie-auentsettings,manyhouseboatsciowdtheshoies
of Lake Union, Seattle, Sausalito, Califoinia, and the 79th Stieet Maiina
alongtheHudsonRiveiinNewYoikCity.Foimeibaigesnowconveitedto
comfoitablehomeslinethecanalsofAmsteidamandRotteidam.Rotteidam
even boasts a oating hotelthe thiee-stai H2otel, in histoiic Wijnhaven
(Wine Haiboi). Rotteidam envisions entiie futuie oating iesidential dis-
tiicts,completewithocecomplexesandpaiks,andwillexpanditsnetwoik
ofmoatsandcanals.
Uibanization, by paving the giound with impeimeable conciete oi as-
phalt,pieventsiainwateifiominltiatingthesoilandiechaigingtheaqui-
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 243
feis.Tisiesultsinstieetandbasementoodingafteiheavyiains.InRottei-
dam,excessiainwateicanbetempoiaiilystoiedbeneathmunicipalpaiking
oiinwateiplazasthatalsoseiveaspaiksoiplaygioundswhendiy.Planting
gieenioofsalsohelpscuibexcessiuno.
43

New York City

Astheygoabouttheiidailytasks,mostNewYoikeisiemainoblivioustothe
citysstatusasanislandandamajoiseapoit.Tecityboastsneaily600 miles
(970kilometeis)ofshoieline,andfouiofitsveboioughsaieislands.How-
evei, the citys wateifiont is undeigoing a majoi tiansfoimation. Shipping,
exceptfoiciuiseships,haslaigelymovedtoneaibyStatenIslandandBay-
onne,NewJeisey.Pedestiianwalkwaysandbicyclepathsnowieplaceiotting
pieis and abandoned waiehouses and factoiies. New high-iise apaitment
complexesspioutlikemushiooms.
New Yoik City iecognizes the issues of global waiming and sea level
iise in its wateifiont iedevelopment plans. Te city cuiiently is among the
10 poitcitiesmostvulneiabletocoastalooding,inteimsofpopulationand
assets.
46
Bythe2070s,NewYoikCitywillstilliemainamongthetop10poit
citiesatiisk,basedonassets.Winteicyclonesandhuiiicaneshaveooded
paitsofthecityinthepast,mostiecentlyduiingthenoieasteiofDecem-
bei1992,discussedabove.
Te mayois Oce of Long-Teim Planning and Sustainability manages
city-owned infiastiuctuie. Mayoi Michael Bloombeig iecently commis-
sionedastudybyexpeitsfiomtheNASAGoddaidInstitutefoiSpaceStud-
ies,ColumbiaUniveisity,otheiiegionaluniveisities,andthepiivatesectoi
toadviseonclimatechangeiisksaiisingfiomchangesintempeiatuie,pie-
cipitation,andsealevelchangeandtoiecommendadaptationstiategies.
47

Table 9.1 Rotterdam and New York City Compared

City Rotteidam NewYoikCity
2Iuu 2u8u2u9u
(iel.toI99u) (iel.to2uuu)
SeaLevelRise u.63I.3m u.3u.38m(centialiange)
u.67m(max.)
Rapidicemelt I.uI.4m
I-in-Iuu-yeaioodheight 2.8m 2.93.3m
Souices: Rotteidam data fiom Delta Commissie (2uu8), Aeits et al. (2uu9). New Yoik City data fiom
Hoitonetal.(2uIu).
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244 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Te New Yoik City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2010 iepoit pioj-
ectsfutuiesealeveliisebasedonsevenGlobalCiiculationModels(GCMs)
andthieegieenhousegasemissionsscenaiios(IPCCSRESA2,A1B,andB2).
Tesepiojections,modiedfiomIPCCmethodology,includeglobalcontii-
butions fiom theimal expansion and meltwatei (glacieis, ice caps, and ice
sheets), as well as local land subsidence, mainly due to glacial isostatic ad-
justments,andlocalchangesinwateiheightfiomseatempeiatuie,salinity,
and ocean cuiients. (Othei factois aecting sea level, such as giavitational
andiotationalteims,weienotincluded.)Tosimulatepotentialdynamicice
acceleiation,anuppei-limit,high-impactRapidIce-Meltscenaiioassumes
thatglacieisandicesheetswillmeltatiatescompaiabletothoseoftheLast
Glacial Teimination (chaptei 5), when sea level climbed at an aveiage iate
of0.390.47inches(1012millimeteis)peiyeai.Tisscenaiioassumesthat
meltwateiiisesexponentiallyfiomthepiesentmeanicemeltiateof1.1cen-
timeteis pei decade between 2000 and 2004, going to 2100. Tis teim is
addedtotheotheithieesealevelteims,whichiemainunchanged.
Te GCM-based piojections show a sea level iise of 712 inches (18
30 centimeteis)
48
bythe2050sand1223inches(3058centimeteis)bythe
2080s(table9.2).Sealevelieaches-4155inches(104140centimeteis)by
the2080sintheRapidIce-Meltscenaiio.
Te fiequency, intensity, and duiation of coastal ooding will likely in-
ciease along with a iising sea. Te 100-yeai ood ietuin cuive (oi stage-
fiequencyielationship)foiNewYoikCitywascalculatedfiomaU.S.Aimy
Coips of Engineeis hydiodynamic model with both suige and tidal com-
ponents.
49
Sealeveliiseieducesthe100-yeaiietuinpeiiodtooncein15
35 yeaisbythe2080s.
Ahigheiaveiagesealevelwouldexaceibatestieet,basement,andsewei
oodinganddisiupttianspoitationmoiefiequently.Itwouldincieaseiates
Table 9.2 Sea level rise projections for New York City
2u2us 2u3us 2u8us
GCM-basedscenaiios 23inches 7I2inches I223inches
3.II3centimeteis I83ucentimeteis 3u38centimeteis
Rapidicemeltscenaiio 3Iuinches -I929inches -4I33inches
I323centimeteis 4874centimeteis Iu4I4ucentimeteis
Souice:RosenzweigandSolecki(2uIu),Hoitonetal.(2uIu).Numbeisiepiesentsealeveliiseielativeto
theyeai2uuufoithemid-67peicentofthemodelpiojections.
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 245
ofbeacheiosion,necessitatingadditionalbeachnouiishmentpiogiams.Salt
wateiwouldencioachfaitheiintofieshwateisouicesandpotentiallydam-
ageinfiastiuctuie.
TeNPCCiecommendsthatNewYoikCitybegintodevelopexiblead-
aptationpathwaysthatcanbeadjustedpeiiodicallytothelatestpiojections
ofsealeveliise.Existingiiskandhazaidmanagementstiategiescanthenbe
ievised as needed. Te NPCCs Adaptation Assessment Guidebook (AAG)
iecommendsthatcityagenciesbegintopiepaieaninventoiyofinfiastiuc-
tuieandassetsatiisk,linkadaptationstiategiestocapitalandiehabilitation
cycles, and peiiodically monitoi and ieassess plans in iesponse to newei
climateinfoimation.Inaddition,theNPCCoeisageneialpiocessfoicie-
atingasetofclimatechangeielateddesignandpeifoimancestandaids(cli-
matepiotectionlevels,oiCPLs).Mostimpoitantistoupdatecuiient1-in-
100-yeaioodzonemaps(e.g.,FEMAsmaps)toincoipoiatefutuiesealevel
iiseandcoastalooding(table9.2,g.9.10).
Te New Yoik City Depaitment of City Planning has iecently unveiled
itsVision2020:NewYoikCityCompiehensiveWateifiontPlanfoitheie-
vitalization of the wateifiont.
3u
Te plan envisions enhanced public access
tothewateifiontandutilizationofthewateiways,aswellasneweconomic
developmentandiesidentialconstiuction.TedelineationoftheNewYoik
CityCoastalZoneBoundaiyusedinwateifiontievitalizationshouldalsobe
updatedtoieectthelatestsealeveliisepiojections.
REACTING TO THE RISING WATERS
InNoifolk,Viiginia,sealeveliiseisnotheoieticalmatteiitisalieadyoc-
cuiiing! High spiing tides iegulaily ood stieets in some neighboihoods,
foicingiesidentstoie-paiktheiicaisawayfiomtheshoieanddetouiaiound
deep puddles. Noifolk, neai the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, is suiiounded
onthieesidesbywatei.Natuialsubsidenceplussettlingandcompactionof
ieclaimed maishland add to the iising watei, making the ielative sea level
tiendof4.44millimeteis(0.17inches)peiyeaioneofthehighestalongthe
East Coast. Aftei extensive lobbying by local iesidents, the city decided to
iaisethewoist-hitstieetby46centimeteis(18inches)andtoieadjuststoim
diainpipestopieventstieetooding.FEMAhasalsospent$144,000toiaise
sixhouses,stimulatingobjectionsoveihighcostsandthefutilityofendless
counteimeasuies.
3I
Temayoiconcedesthatiftheseakeepsiising,thecity
will eventually need to cieate ietieat zones, but those most aected (like
theii counteipaits in Coiton, England) stiongly piefei action at any cost.
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246 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S
Meanwhile, the city will select its ood-mitigation piojects moie caiefully
andexploiealteinativeslikeinatabledamsoistoim-suigeoodgates.
In geneial, the iesponse to the iising sea follows eithei of two diveigent
pathways.Teistcouiseentailsstayingputandholdingthelinefoiaslong
as possible. Coastal development continues (with minoi iestiictions) and
theshoieisdefendedbyamixofhaidaimoiing,softei,moienatuialsolu-
tions, oi accommodation by means of innovative aichitectuie and design.
Figure 9.10 New York City FEMA 100-year-ood maps with sea level rise based on NPCC sea
level rise projections. (Map by K. Grady, A. Marko, L. Patrick, W. Solecki, Climate Protection
Level Workbook, in Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2010, g. 3, p. 317.)
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C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 247
Tisappioachwoikswellfoidenselypopulatedoialieadyhighlydeveloped
aieasinthefoieseeablefutuie.Howevei,itencouiagesfuitheidevelopment
in alieady high-iisk aieas and may not be able to withstand uppei-end sea
leveliisescenaiios.
Te second pathway is a giadual iollback fiom the shoie thiough a mix
ofland-usezoning,easements,eiosionsetbacks,andpubliclandacquisition
foi wetland migiation oi paiks, appiopiiate foi spaisely populated oi less-
developed shoielines. At piesent, this appioach may appeai moie conten-
tious, not only because of clashing special inteiests but also, and peihaps
moie impoitantly, because the peiception of imminent iisk is not obvious
to planneis. Yet the piudent foiesight that it oeis piepaies us foi the day
whendefendingthefoitagainsttheseamaybecomeanunwinnablebattle.
LOOKING AHEAD: HOW THE PAST INFORMS THE FUTURE
Having jouineyed acioss the seas of time, in the nal chaptei we will ie-
viewhowpastchangesinclimateandsealevelmayoeicluesaboutfutuie
pathways.Wealsoexploiewaystoieducethepotentialmaiinemenace.An
impoitantelementofthesolutioninvolvesmitigating(ieducing)gieenhouse
gasemissions.Someplausiblemitigationoptionswillbebiieyoutlined.We
alsolookbeyondtechnologicalsolutionstoachangeinpeiceptionthatmay
helpaveitthemostseveieconsequences.
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