Apocalypse

Global Mass Extinctions

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL EINDHOVEN July 3, 2013 Author: Xavier Weiss

Introduction ... 2 Asteroid Impact: .........................................................2 Comet Impact: ............................................................3 Volcanic Outburst: ......................................................3 Supernova and solar flares:.........................................4 Gamma Ray Bursts: ....................................................5 Population: .................................................................5 Climate Change: .........................................................9 Acidification: ..............................................................9 Greenhouse Gases: ................................................... 10 Rising Sea Leves: ....................................................... 12 Biodiversity: ............................................................. 14 Nuclear Exchange: .................................................... 15 Technology: .............................................................. 17 Virtual Economies:.................................................... 18 Artificial Intelligence: ................................................ 18 Resource Exhaustion:................................................ 19 Conclusion: ............................................................... 20 Recommendations: ................................................... 20 Bibliography: .............................................................. 21

Introduction:
Humanity has long been obsessed with its self-destruction, cults and preachers have many times predicted an approaching apocalypse yet none , thus far, have come to pass. Rather than take a religious standpoint the focus is on using rational reasoning to understand how the Earth could come to some form of a demise, thereby the end of humanity. Whether by any one of the numerous problems faced by our society today, the stacking of those issues, or a far-future scenario such as the collapse of our G2V star.1,2 Whichever may be the case humanity currently faces a smorgasbord of difficulties capable of tipping its ,bordering, tier 1 civilization on the Kardashev scale. Prominent predictions of a global mass extinction amongst this are celestial impacts, physical disasters (e.g. volcanic outburst), gamma ray bursts, pandemics, climate change, nuclear warfare, technological downfall.. 3,4. Some causes and issues that may cause or worsen such events include over-population, ocean acidification, agricultural supply and demand and resource exhaustion.5 Sols supernova as well as the inevitable radioactive decay of atoms are considered inevitable, however they are much further along the timeline then potential politically-induced warfare or environmental degradation.

Asteroid Impact:
The Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction event is generally theorized to have been caused by a large asteroid , 10 km in diameter which has left geological evidence with increased strains of iridium typical of a celestial impact; dubbed the Chixulub crater. The Earth has a protective atmosphere that combusts up the majority of incoming meteors via extreme friction, rendering them harmless, however in order for at least some fragments of the meteor to puncture the asteroid it needs to be at least 14mm in diameter. The size and speed are both factors in an asteroids chance to overcome the friction, as higher velocities cause more friction; therefore slower objects have a greater probability of making it through. However it is necessary to note that the CretaceousTertiary period was dominated by reptilian life, whilst microscopic life continued, these are cold-blooded and thus require the sun for their survival, whilst homo sapiens are mammals whom are warm-blooded and burn food in order to produce thermal energy to
1 2

"Star Classification." Enchanted Learning. Advertisments/Membership, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2012. "Our Typical Dwarf Star." Astrobiology. N.p., 22 July 2003. Web. 30 Dec. 2012. <http://www.astrobio.net/pressrelease/532/our-typical-dwarf-star>.3 "Kepler Overview." NASA. United States, n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2012.< http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/main/index.html>-Flare 4 "Super Solar Flares." PlanetSave. N.p., n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2012.< http://planetsave.com/2012/12/01/super-solarflares-20-times-more-powerful-than-any-known-in-modern-times-are-possible-on-the-sun-research-finds/>-Flare 5 Barnosky, Anthony D. Biodiversity Response to Climate Change in the Middle Pleistocene: The Porcupine Cave Fauna from Colorado. Berkeley: University of California, 2004. Print

continue internal chemical reactions. Even a 15km diameter asteroid composed of entirely of iron which would hypothetically hit the earth at a 90* angle at 60kmph which produces approximately 2.54 * 10^25 joules of energy upon impact creating a 253 km diameter crater upon impact, 53km more than the Cretaceous-Tertiary impact. Whereby it also disrupts all life in its immediate vicinity via incineration, Richter 11 earthquakes and thermal radiation. However this would not be the main damage, an impact of such magnitude releases dust particles into the air which spread globally via wind currents, blocking out the sun and killing photosynthetic as well as cold-blooded life in the longterm. Since homo sapiens do not fall under these categories despite the major disruption of society we will definitely have survivors on the other side of the Earth, however since 75% of the Earths surface is covered in water the greatest chances are a oceanic impact; resulting in a super tsunami. Nonetheless pockets of humanity will survive, at maximum it takes five thousands individuals , of equally distributed genders, to have a larger enough gene-pool for reconstructing humanity; which is very feasible after such a disaster.

Comet Impact:
Comets are rarer than asteroids however they have an average velocity of 51km/s compared to 11km/s for typical asteroids. Most comets are hypothesized to have a 16km diameter compared to the 1km of most of the asteroids in the asteroid belt. Since they are made primarily of ice, which has a density of 1000kg/m^3 compared to 3000kg/m^3 of dense rock present in most asteroids. Hence an average comet has a mass of 2144661 kg compared to 1571 kg of an average 1km diameter asteroid, a substantial difference. Its increased velocity makes it harder to detect as well as giving larger damage relative to the size of the object, although more melts due to this same velocity. If one assumes the constants of a 45* angle, water impact in average depth, average velocity , average ice density, and average mass the impact would result in a 2.79 * 10^24 joule impact compared to the (average input on all) 2.27 * 10^20 Joules of an average asteroid impact. Comets are therefore, on average, much more destructive and difficult to detect however they are a much rarer celestial phenomenon and an average comet would not cause any permanent damage besides a possible 6.03 microsecond shift in the length of a terrestrial day.

Volcanic Outburst:
Volcanic outburst are another potentially cataclysmic disaster , which is emphasized by recent eruptions in Eyjafjallajokull and Grimsvotn, which severely hampered aerospace in Europe. Much like the asteroid impact these release colossal amounts of CO2 and dust particles into the atmosphere, blotting out the sun. It is theorized that the severe volcanic activity in the Deccan Traps, India, combined with the asteroid impact

to push the dinosaurs into extinction.6 They covered approximately 1.5 million km^2 with lava flow and were active for thousands of years. Recent studies into foraminifera, whom underwent drastic changes in size in a direct link to the volcanic outbursts has raised the possibility of it being the cause of the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction event. 7Perhaps it was a combination of the asteroid impact and volcanic outbursts that led to the global extinction, raising the possibility of a stacking apocalyptic event. In comparison with the asteroid the Deccan Traps are estimated to have released ten times as much poisonous gas, however it was mainly Sulfur; which is believed to cause more temporary disruptions. It is reasonable to hypothesize that , since the Asteroid impacted around Mexico, and the volcanos in India; that these two disasters combined to cause the global mass extinction event.

Supernova and solar flares:

Our Sun is a G2V yellow dwarf star and has 11 year cycles in its solar flare activity, the climax of which is currently around 2013 to 2014. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are caused by magnetic energy built up in the solar atmosphere which is released carrying electrons, protons and heavy nuclei alongside it; their temperature can range from 10 to 100 million kelvin compared to the few million of the corona, the warmest part of the sun. Earth has a magnetic field composed of the inner and outer Van Allen belts, although recently a third belt has been discovered.8 The magnetic field is theorized to be caused by the movement of fluid magnetic metals in the outer core composed primarily of iron(Fe) and nickel(Ni). This field reflects solar winds , protecting us from extreme radiation. Some high-charged particles still slip through the fields, primarily at the south pole, causing Auroras. Mars has been theorized to previously possess a magnetic field but that is has since been destroyed under extreme solar winds exposing the surface to radiation and thermal heat. The most powerful solar flare ever recorded on Earth occurred on the 4th of November 2003 between X40 and X45 causing an EMP wave to overload electronic systems as well as the GOES detectors; therefore the inaccuracy. Whilst there have been recordings of solar flares twenty times this size in other solar system, the current relative calmness of our Suns cycle and its status as a yellow dwarf minimize probability of a massive solar flare. If such a flare where to hit it would disrupt society completely via its electromagnetic residue but would not cause humanity to go extinct. Therefore solar flares are an over exaggerated danger whos only threat is
6

"Indian Dinosaurs Not Killed By Meteorites." Daily News & Analysis. N.p., 9 Dec. 2012. Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://www.dnaindia.com/scitech/report_indian-dinosaurs-were-not-killed-by-meteorites_1775374>.7 Choi, Charles Q. "Double Trouble: What Really Killed the Dinosaurs." LiveScience.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.livescience.com/2038-double-trouble-killed-dinosaurs.html>. 8

"NASA's Van Allen Probes Reveal a New Radiation Belt Around Earth."ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 28 Feb. 2013. Web. 05 Mar. 2013. <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130228155430.htm>.

communications disruption however hold this in doubt in conjunction with the upcoming technological discussions. The only case in which they would hold a physical threat is if it causes the magnetic field to collapse, as hypothesized on Mars, however Earths magnetic field is very strong at 0.65 Gauss.

Gamma Ray Bursts:

Gamma ray bursts are short bursts of gamma-ray protons, the most energetically charged light form in the known Universe. They occur as supernovas strip away the mass of a star, followed by an implosion producing a black hole in the collapsing core, this causes a blast wave to form which when colliding with the stellar material still present forms gamma ray bursts. This could hypothetically carry on for many light years, practically infinite, if unhindered, therefore posing some danger to Earth. A very specific blast axis and alignment is necessary to detect gamma ray bursts and our technology does not allow detection of short duration bursts, therefore many mysteries remain including the jets of matter released during this process, which are theorized to also be able to cause the gamma burst when colliding with interstellar medium called the Cannon Ball Model. Such extreme radiation and energy can absorb planets easily, including Earth. The Jet could hypothetically hit Earth if it passes nearby or hits directly, causing a global extinction; however the probability of this occurring is tremendously minute , although some Polish scientists have blamed Ordovician extinction event on such a burst. This has been supported by Wilfred Domainko, German physicist, whom says it is most likely from a tightly packed globular cluster, which has stars so closely packed that they can often merge after one dies emitting a potential hyper-nova which in turn can cause gamma ray bursts. If a gamma ray burst (jet) hit Earth, directly at a relatively short range, it could strip the atmosphere off and release tidal amounts of Ultraviolet radiation on the inhabitants, causing an extinction event. Therefore gamma ray bursts could cause a global extinction event , however their extreme improbability makes this a negligible hazard at best. Recent evidence , after hitting a blockade in explanations, suggests that Earth may have been hit by one sometime in the 8th Century, which caused increased readings of berrylium-10 in Antarctic ice cores a potential product of a Gamma ray burst. This originated at a distance of 3,000 to 12,000 light years away far enough to be absorbed by our atmosphere; however a close-range one could destroy the atmosphere. If the 8th Century burst were to occur in modern times it could knock out satellites, communications systems, and disrupt the infrastructure. Showing the potential but highly unlikely chance of Gamma Ray Burst disaster with the additional rebuke that it is only truly devastating at a relatively close proximity.

Population:

On the 31st of October 2011 the 7 billionth Homo-Sapien was born, marking the passage into yet another milestone in overpopulation. This festering issue is forcing humanity to come up with increasingly efficient agricultural methodologies. For example look at the Green Revolution which was a breakthrough in genetic engineering to maintain a high-yield crop however at the cost of biodiversity. The Haber process is the basis of fertilizers and at its discovery the population has been allowed to skyrocket. By 2050 farms will have to grow 70% more food to feed the population, which in itself is an already potential ecological disaster due to run-off and nutrient depletion as well as deforestation to clear the way for agricultural activities but is also a concern as an even greater productivity must be reached to meet the poor distribution of food. MEDCs are abundant in food and consumption per capita whilst LEDCs are largely malnourished, take India for instance, this uneven distribution is wasteful causing obesity on one end and famine on the other.

Graph 1: Global population prediction in billions: Compiled by C-Roads

Moreover approximately half of the annual production of food is wasted due to poor transport, lack of selection(i.e. not sold at designated supermarkets and then disposed) and selective farming(throw away any non-perfect samples). Besides the looming food crisis, already showing signs with increased wheat prices[see graph 1] (the recent drought in America further ratifies the hazard) but also the demands of education facilities and too little staff to manage them, therefore a large selection of dependent citizens will remain illiterate and uneducated.

Graph 1: Bread/Wheat price indices from 2007- Febuary 2009: Compiled by NPR

As the population increases this has an immediate correlation with energy use, food consumption, water usage, pollution and resource usage which all increase alongside it. The concept of solving the population explosion by turning high-birth rate, low-death rate developing countries into MEDCs is inaccurate, since MEDCs use far more resources, energy, and food/water per capita then in an LEDC; since nations on the whole are developing more even a slowing down in the population growth due to birth control and sexual education will be nullified via the increased footprint per individual. As portrayed in Graph 2 & 3 birth rate may be faltering however the carbon footprint per capita is incrementing. From 2000 to 2002 birth rate has dropped by almost 1 birth/1000 of population whilst a spike in global emissions results is recorded simultaneously. The population is increasing at a rapid rate which is only predicted to slow down, however thus far there have been no actual signs of this. Alongside this emergent issues of increased demand per capita in terms of energy consumption and basic commodities as well as the increased demand for education are appearing. Already humanity is at a point in which immediate response via forced population control could lead to serious discrepancies in the distribution of the population as seen in Chinas one child policy. It is most directly a cause because of its correlation to pollution due to the increased demands for agricultural productivity. The potential for a disaster in which the demand for sustenance far out runs the production could lead to serious political turmoil as ODCs hoard resources, China is already showing evidence of this, potentially leading to such political shambles that it is capable of sparking a nuclear exchange. If the population were to be properly ebbed and stabilized humanity could live in relative luxury without continuing to contaminate the environment. One escape route is therefore sustainable development in which every aspect of the populaces waste, growth and demand is compensated by modifying other factors.

Graph 3: Global Emissions Per Capita 1980-2100: Compiled By C-Roads

Graph 2: Average Global Birth Rate per 1000 of population over time
22.5 22 21.5 Birth rate 21 /1000 of 20.5 population 20 19.5 19 18.5 2000

2002

2004

2006 Year

2008

2010

2012

Graph 4: Global Birth rate over time: Compiled with Index mundi , data from CIA world Factbook

Climate Change:
Climate change and pollution of the environment can have disastrous consequences. It has a plethora of drawbacks including but not limited to: extremer weather patterns, increased probability of pandemics, less availability of fresh water, natural disasters, higher ocean levels(due to the ice caps melting), further shrinking of human living space( a particularly bad combination in correspondence with the population explosion) and a situation wherein the basic production of oxygen via photosynthesis may be questioned. Continued pollution of the air can cause breathing problems to the point of contiguous smogs resulting in the necessity for gas masks. Continued pollution of water contaminates our water supply poisoning fresh water to the extent of lethality for the consumers as much as the local wildlife. Moreover, continued pollution of soil contaminates the food supply leading to diseases and famine. A major natural disaster may cause collapse as much as the potential of disease in the face of decreased supplies of medicine as ecosystems reduce their productivity. Furthermore it may cause the stagnating of agriculture due to longer and more severe droughts or floods. A more gradual long term disaster may ensue via decreased oxygen supplies and genetic imbalance. This stress on our society could in turn lead to nuclear warfare.

Acidification:
Acidification is the process of decreasing the pH below natural values, since some regions are naturally slightly acidic, to intolerable levels. Burning of fossil fuels releases nitrogen oxides , sulfur oxides and carbon dioxide which make their way into water(H2O) and the soil passing pH tolerance levels and leading to endangerment and even extinction of wildlife. Acid rain is when these gases dissolve into rain water which then precipitates to contribute to deforestation and decimation of plant life since these are honed in on absorbing the rain water which was typically non-acidic. Coral reefs are a prime example as its harmonious system of production and consumption and specific demands on mineral presence , temperature, and water pH make it fragile towards acidification, these have been on the decline with 20% utterly destroyed and 24% in immediate danger, with a further 26% in risk of long term degradation.9,10 Ocean pH is
9

Wilkinson, C. , 2004 , Foreword, Countries, States and Territories Acknowledgements, Co-sponsors and supporters of GCRMN, Introduction and Executive Summary. . p: I-66. in C. Wilkinson (ed.). Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004. Volume 1. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia. 301 p.
10

Connor, Steve. "Coral Reefs in Danger." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/coral-reefs-in-danger-of-being-destroyed1908544.html>.

steadily decreasing, as seen in Graph 5, and is predicted to continue in this pattern.

Graph 5: Average Ocean pH current & predicted: Compiled by C-Roads

Greenhouse Gases:
Greenhouse gases are naturally present in order to keep a livable environment in place for the inhabitants of Earth by maintaining a stable temperature. The photons from the sun penetrate the atmosphere and then rebound of the surface, carrying with them heat, however the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane reflect this back to the surface effectively trapping the heat. Temperature shifts on Earth do not necessarily result in the eradication of life since life is adaptive, for example the latest glacial period. [see graph 6 ] is approximately 7C lower than currently yet life still

thrived, however this was over a long period of time.

Graph 6: History of temperaure, carbon dioxide and methane emissions over four glacial periods recorded from Vostok Icecore after bedrock(1999)

The Holocene period, primarily marked by man, has undergone radical change with a rapid influx of temperature rather than a gradual increment at a low gradient. This is due to but not limited to: industrial pollution, often inefficient and wasteful, automobile usage and fires releasing greenhouse gases. In reference to graph 7 fossil fuel emissions make up the major portion of greenhouse pollution where after methane and nitrogen oxides. Increased agriculture has led to a rise in methane emissions , primarily by livestock excretion. However, it has a relatively shorter atmospheric lifespan of 12 years after which it is dissolved via natural chemical reactions. Carbon dioxide on the other hand can persist for 20-200 years after it is dissolved into the ocean, which is reaching its maximum saturation causing dead zones devoid of oxygen and life, the remaining CO2 is absorbed over thousands of years by slower chemical processes such as rock formation.

Graph 7: Carbon dioxide emissions stacked present & predicted in gigatons per year: Compiled by C-Roads

Rising Sea Levels:

Ice is less dense then water as it is more sparsely oriented, it bonds with 4 other solid water molecules compared to approximately 3.4 bondings of liquid water. Therefore if one melts ice by heating it will produce a lesser volume of water. In the case of the polar ice caps melting this will actually result in raised sea levels as much of the ice is above water and supported by landmass rather than buoyant forces. When this top-ice melts, the floating masses above the surface are more exposed to heat, and the sea level will rise correspondingly. Increased sea levels can result in the flooding of low-lying countries and coastal cities, forcing farmers to use less fertile rocky land instead. 61% of all fresh water is located in the Antarctic Ice sheet hence if it were to melt the ocean would rise by 60 meters compared to 6 meters if the Greenland ice sheet melted. However, the very low average temperature of -35C in Antarctica is well below the freezing point of water. Nonetheless certain regions may melt gradually due to an increase in temperature which in turn leads to increased sea levels. As seen in graph 8 there is a 1300mm predicted increase in ocean level by 2100, capable of priormentioned flooding. Increased global average temperature also contributes to rising sea

levels by making ocean water less dense, thermal energy helps loosen bonds, despite waters high heat capacity.11

Graph 8: Sea level rise present and predicted due to thermal expansion and melting of ice sheets: Compiled by C-Roads

In the G-8 a 2C temperature threshold goal was set in an attempt to thwart the negative effects of global warming, this was further expanded upon in the Kyoto protocol; signed by 191 nations which is designed to reduce industrial emissions of numerous greenhouse gases. Whether this goal will be met is questionable with many emerging nations practicing rapid industrialization over sustainable practices, e.g. China or India.

11

Isgro, Timothy A., Marcos Sotomayor, and Eduardo Cruz-Chu. Biophysics Group. University Of Illnois, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.ks.uiuc.edu/Training/CaseStudies/pdfs/water-1.pdf>.

Biodiversity:
Besides the loss of opportunities in bio-mimicry and medicinal utilization of nature, (which is 0.2 further along in the Kardashev scale at 0.9 compared with our 0.7 tier human civilization) the negative human impact on biological life via loss in biodiversity causes decreased productivity in ecosystems which provide humanity with sustenance in the form of air, water, medicine and food; thereby a mass extinction event gains focus. The human impact of environmental change is sizable whether intentional or not, simplification of life into controllable patterns, e.g. the green revolution simplified crops to basic genetic pools, weakens the genetic pool leading to irreversible damage. 12 Ecosystems are adaptive however there is a point where this is no longer possible leading to a mass extinction event as artificial pesticides like DDT disrupt the food chain with especially high concentration at the tertiary consumer, commercial hunting removes herbivores, deforestation & herbicides eradicate the producers at the bottom of the food chain. At first the systems may change by migrating towards different climates and adjusting their natural cycles, but species are constantly endangered and rendered
12

Waiters, James C. Human Impact on Environmental Change. N.p.: B. Blackwell, 1981, 2001. Print.

extinct due to harsh conditions. Natural extinction also occurs to remove weaker strains in the system, approximately 10 per year, whilst the human influence has increased this by 1000 to 10,000 times(inaccuracy due to undiscovered species) in extinctions simplifying life whereby the biodiversity is diminished. Habitat modification via deforestation and desertification lead to limiting the active area of species and impedes their growth with more contest over a less diverse and scarcer food base. The infrastructure via roads bar migration of species due to the danger of automobiles but primarily the openness of the expanse discouraging passage to otherwise concealed species, infrastructure also fragments forests leaving only exterior(unproductive) secondary forest in its place rather than a mature primary forest with a rim of secondary forest to protect the inner forest from weather & disease. Overgrazing where domesticated animals, such as cattle, are left in grasslands for extended periods of time without migration weakens the system and replaces it with unpalatable weeds is another form of habitat loss. The mainstream cause for habitat loss is expansion of agriculture and living space which in turn is hooked into the population crisis. Habitat loss is responsible for 85% of all species on the Red list, making it the primary culprit in the decline of biodiversity. 13 This damage to ecosystems encourages pandemics amongst the Homo Sapien presence as there is less access to natural medicines(such as herbs) to repel them. Our continued struggle against disease exposes them to vaccines, making them all the more resilient as the viruses adapt to the new defensive systems. More paramount is the possibility of a mass extinction of all biological life as their genetic base slackens and it is bombarded with all-encompassing habitat loss , pesticides/herbicides and pollution. Humanity depends on ecosystems to keep the soil fertile, to process its grandiose proportions of waste and to provide it with valuable medicines. If it were to collapse the dependence of humanity on nature will result in famine, disease, and political mayhem.

Nuclear Exchange:
Nuclear fission works by striking a neutron into the nucleus of Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239 this splits the nucleus into two parts each with half of the protons and neutrons of the original, releasing correlated gamma rays and thermal energy. Mildly enriched Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239 is capable of providing raw energy via nuclear plants, which leaves radioactive waste and could result in a Chernobyl or Fukushima disaster, however proper containment can nullify this risk and give vastly superior quantities of energy over fossil fuels. The water vapour released , water is used to keep

13

"Impact of Habitat Loss on Species." WWF. Global Charities, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/species/problems/habitat_loss_degradation/>.

the reaction chamber temperature down, acts as a greenhouse gas but is non-toxic and dissipates quickly. Therefore it is one of the greatest triumphs of the modern era, yet it also brings with it one of the most decisive threats to continued existence in the form of thermonuclear bombs. The first two of which were released at the dawn of the WW2 on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively, resulting in approximately 135,000 casualties in Hiroshima and 64,000 in Nagasaki. 14 There are three ,known, forms of radiation; alpha radiation-in which two bound neutrons and protons are released from the nucleus, beta radiationneutron becomes proton and electron becomes antineutrino, the ejected electron is a beta particle and gamma rays- a form of radiation that is energy-based rather than on particle ejection, a burst of electromagnetic energy. Alpha radiation is the largest and has a high charge making it the least penetrating and easily repelled. Beta radiation has less charge and mass allowing it to penetrate more easily. Whilst gamma rays have no charge and no mass allowing them to penetrate through. Only very dense substances can partially block gamma rays to safer margins. Chain fission is the process of the initial neutron collision causing the splitting of the nucleus which then itself splits and releases two to three new neutrons which in turn cause a series of new fissions as they hit other nuclei. This has the potential to release vast amounts of energy in the form of thermal energy and gamma radiation. Probabilities of such collisions are dependent on the enrichment and state , if it is 90enriched it is considered weapons grade as they it is made 90% of Uranium-235 meaning a high probability of each neutron striking another nucleus. Critical mass must be attained before chain fission can occur, which is the minimal density of nuclei to initialize chain collisions.15 Nuclear bombs often function using implosion, or conjoining in which spate subcritical masses are combined to create a supercritical mass capable of chain fission. The implosion forces them together which in turn triggers a neutron generator, composed of polonium and beryllium-9, the polonium releases alpha particles which collide with the beryllium-9 to form beryllium-8 as well as releasing a neutron which triggers the chain fission of the supercritical mass. The tamper, usually composed of uranium-238 expand harnessing the chain fissions energy to reflect neutrons back in and increase the accumulated energy before the final, now more sizable, explosion. Another method is using a key which is subcritical uranium-235 launched via explosives to the core sphere of uranium-235(at the centre of this sphere is the neutron generator) its aligned collision triggers the nuclear generator and results in the explosion. Finally Edward
14

"Atomic Bombings Japan." Avalon. Yale Law School, 2008. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/mp10.asp>. 15 "Chain Fission." Hyberphysics. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://hyperphysics.phyastr.gsu.edu/hbase/nucene/control.html>.

Teller invented the process of boosting, which uses nuclear fusion to create the neutrons and trigger the chain fission. These are all dubbed fission-based nuclear devices.16 Fusion nuclear bombs use lithium-deuterate as a solid compound which is turned into tritium by a triggering nuclear fission. The fission provides energy for the fusion to occur via x-rays and causes the tamper to expand and compress lithium-deuterate. The shockwaves then trigger another fission in the plutonium rod which releases the neutrons whom collide with the lithium-deuterate and combine with lithium to form tritium, the extreme conditions of heat and radiation allow for tritium-deuterium and deuterium-deuterium to occur causing the explosion. The explosion itself vaporizes materials and condenses them into fine particles carried high into the stratosphere by wind current, this in turn is dubbed fallout.17 Nuclear weaponry is devastating to indigenous life via its incendiary storm and radioactive contamination. Since Hiroshima & Nagasaki far more efficient and powerful warhead have been developed, especially in the Cold War, which combines with an increased global stockpile of circa 17,300 nuclear warheads some of which are capable of releasing 10^17 Joules of energy.18 Political tensions , such as those evident in the Cold War, which are often caused by discontent with conditions such as famine or disease could result in a thermonuclear exchange, therefore discrepancies that may not necessarily be catastrophic for all life could escalate by their correspondent political turmoil into an exchange. Already nations such as Iran & North Korea show threats of initializing such an event by continuing experimentation despite sanctions and following derailed agendas.

Technology:
In the recent information age a general trend of more technological reliance is apparent. The vulnerability of a solar flare is far greater than any age prior simply due to the overabundance of electrical devices across the globe. At the forefront of this new frontier is the computer, invented in 1938 by Konrad Zuse with the first functional electro-mechanical computer.19 Since then computer have developed object-oriented
16

Harris, William, Ph.D, and John Fuller. "Nuclear Bombs." HowStuffWorks. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://science.howstuffworks.com/nuclear-bomb4.htm>. 17 "Atomic Bomb." Encyclopedia Britannica Online. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/41620/atomic-bomb>. 18 "Status of World Nuclear Forces." Federation of American Scientists. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/nukestatus.html>.
19

"When Was the First Computer Invented?" Computer Hope. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm>.

languages, numerous operating systems, and highly efficient processors. Moreover if predictions like Moores law hold technology will continue to become more and more compact in the future with doubling rates of two years.20 Deep blue has already beaten master chess players showing how our own creation can in fact dwarf human capabilities. 21 Virtual realities are becoming increasingly crisp with high definition simulation and modeling programs in an attempt to mimic real life. If the current trend continues, boosted by more nations developing, a point may be reached where technology reaches a sentient state or disrupts the line between virtual realities and real realities.

Virtual Economies:
Not considering the resource & energy demands of increasing reliance on technology and the use of rare metals and minerals in their production complete reliance can result in a mechanical disaster. Most of the worlds money is stored in virtual worlds, with 46.514 trillion in circulation therefore cyber-crime or a mechanical failure could hypothetically ground down the world economy. 22

Artificial Intelligence:
Moreover Artificial Intelligences have developed under the Turing test to become increasingly mistakable for humans. With bots showing characteristics of life by learning via input from human users, such as Cleverbot with 59.3% humanity. 23 As Nanotechnology continues to undergo development the prospect of self-replicating robotics is no longer as far-fetched as previously believed. 24,25 A grey goo scenario could emerge from such a situation in which uncontrolled self-replication exhausts materials resulting in an uninhabitable wasteland. 26 Therefore in the future as development continues at such a rapid rate technology will dwarf humanities capabilities and the reliance on technology could cause economic
20

"What Is Moores Law?" Gordon Moores Law of Exponential Growth and the Singularity. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.singularitysymposium.com/moores-law.html>. 21 "Deep Blue (Computer)." Chess Games. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.chessgames.com/player/deep_blue.html>. 22 "Global Scriptural Money." GoeieVraag.nl. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.goeievraag.nl/vraag/maatschappij/geld-wereld-omloop.2376>. 23 "Cleverbot." Cleverbot. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://cleverbot.com/>. 24 "Self Replication." What Is? Computing Fundamentals, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/self-replication>. 25 "Self Replication and Nanotechnology." Zyvex. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRep.html>. 26 "Our Grey Goo Future: Possibility and Probability." Singularity Weblog RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.singularityweblog.com/our-grey-goo-future-possibility-and-probability/>.

collapse capable of causing enough turmoil for political mayhem. Moreover selfreplicating nanotechnology could exhaust all known resources and render Earth uninhabitable whilst Artificial intelligences may lead to eradication of the human error. On the other hand technology may be the best tool to combat unsustainability as we learn to create miniature self-sustaining biospheres.27

Resource Exhaustion:
Exhaustion of resources is looming given the demanding population and inefficient extraction systems. At our present rate of consumption the 1.3. trillion barrels of oil will be exhausted in 40 years.28 However as pointed out by Nigel Lawson, as the consumer price increases people naturally seek alternates therefore this may stretch out further depending on societys reaction. Rapid deforestation means that the valuable source of wood and associated medicinal and nutritional products may run out with rainforests being reduced from 14% to 6% of continental land and estimated to be inexistent in 40 years.29 Moreover overfishing and pollution may exhaust strained fish supplies with 85% of global fish stocks being over-exploited by 2046 if current trends of overexploitation continue.30 Precious metals like silver (Ag) are also disappearing rapidly due to industrial demand for products such as electronic switches, TV screens, chips and batteries therefore it is a necessity rather than a desire.31 Since large portions of society are reliant on these sources once they are exhausted resource hogging by wealthier nations and political tensions may ensue. This could potentially cause a mass extinction event by triggering a global nuclear exchange. Moreover reliance on resources and their extraction can lead to ecological turmoil since

27

Odum, Eugene P. Ecology and Our Endangered Life-support Systems. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, 1989. Print. Pg. 14-15
28

"When Will Oil Run Out?" Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE). N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/energy/energy-supply/fossil-energy/when-will-oil-runout>.
29

"Rainforest Statistics Facts." Rainforest Statistics Facts. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.savetheamazon.org/rainforeststats.htm>. 30 "All Seafood Will Run out in 2050, Say Scientists." Telegraph. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1533125/All-seafood-will-run-out-in-2050-sayscientists.html>. 31 "The World Will Run Out of Silver in Nine Years." Wealth Wire. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/2290>.

the members of ecosystems rely on minerals and natural processes which are disrupted via extraction (e.g. soil erosion).32

Conclusion:
In consummation it is evident that a whole array of issues face humanity in its fledgling years, in its current state these indicate a large majority chance towards mass extinction over sustainable continuation. From all the possibilities ecological collapse appears to be the most probable currently with the massive extinctions caused annually above the natural extinctions. However one must contemplate that when an apocalyptic scenario does arise that the causes will likely stack rather than have one problem be the source for all discontent, after all these processes are fundamentally entwined; for example the population explosion is relevant to climate change with increased energy demand. The presence of a nuclear armada arises the possibility of a not necessarily catastrophic situation erupting into a global nuclear exchange.

Recommendations:
However it is easy to get absorbed along the same fanaticism that many cults follow given this information but it must be noted that despite numerous predictions humanity continues to thrive, although rather unsustainably. In order to eliminate risks of a global extinction event ,caused by the human impact, sustainable practices must be enacted. The population should be kept stable via pronatalist policies and population control. Energy demand should be made more efficient with less wasteful industrial processes such as coal burning being replaced with sustainable energy in the long term and more efficient burning , via insulation and precise inputs, in the short term. Research as long served as a shield to refrain from acting, however there is now more than sufficient data to prove the necessity for action. Once the population is stabilized automatically there is less necessity for extremist agriculture nor for industrialization. During the transition stage thorough experimentation into sustainable development and more efficient industrial processes is essential. To allow for continued development of culture and inventions a superfluous framework is necessary. Sustainable housing already exists, adapting this framework in Urban settings allows for all individuals to live comfortably without fear of famine nor power failure. Reserves for endangered species should be expanded and enforced to assist

32

Waiters, James C. Human Impact on Environmental Change. N.p.: B. Blackwell, 1981, 2001. Print.P. 105-140

them in returning to safe numbers with migratory reserves for migratory species. 33As species continue to go extinct DNA repositories are necessary for of the time when genetic engineering allows scientists to rebuild the victims of the Holocene period. Therefore a masterpiece society is what is called upon. Given the monopolizing and centralized methodologies many countries thrive upon and the general attitude of every nation for itself the prospect is far off, however the United Nations and its efforts show that unification of countries is possible despite the fact that some member states still hijack it to further their personal gain, for example the invasion of Libya to resuscitate its oil exports. Apocalypses send rudimentary messages in their destruction, reminding of the necessity for change in the self-destructive system currently in action.

Bibliography:
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33

Vince, Gaia. "How the Worlds Oceans Could Be Running out of Fish." BBC News. BBC, n.d. Web. 27 Feb. 2013. <http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120920-are-we-running-out-offish/3>.

Barnosky, Anthony D. Biodiversity Response to Climate Change in the Middle Pleistocene: The Porcupine Cave Fauna from Colorado. Berkeley: University of California, 2004. Print.-Book on correlation between climate change and biodiversity. The potential cause of ecological collapse lies there. Thereby ecological collapse is more of a means rather than a cause. "World Social/Ecological Collapse." World Social/Ecological Collapse. N.p., n.d. Web. 30 Dec. 2012. <http://envon.20m.com/>.-Other than the categorizing sinning as the ultimate cause of collapse, this short(sourced) article depicts some interesting points as to events that could cause global collapse. Morelle, Rebecca. "Gamma-ray Burst 'hit Earth in 8th Century'" BBC News. BBC, 21 Jan. 2013. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment21082617>. Depicts potential evidence of a Gamma-Ray Burst hitting the Earth between 774-775 AD. This is theoretical but the physical evidence has thus far not been tangibly explained by other theories. Such a real scenario emphasizes the potential dangers. Ehrlich, Paul R. The Population Bomb. London: Sierra Club/Ballantine, 1971. Print.Thorough book on the problems and issues arousing around the population explosion currently occurring on Spaceship Earth. It describes potential scenarios of collapse due to over-population and describes solutions, the ineffectiveness of Family Planning and the mathematical void of sustaining society with an overflowing population. "DESA News Interview with Hania Zlotnik, Director of UN DESA's Population Division."UN News Center. UN, 31 Oct. 2011. Web. 19 Jan. 2013. <http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-to-welcome-sevenbillionth-citizen.html>. UN article on the 7 billionth citizen "World Population Counter." Peter Russel. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 Jan. 2013. <http://www.peterrussell.com/Odds/pop.php>. World population counter based on US consensus report, moderate reliability. Makes some good pointer though. Connor, Steve. "Coral Reefs in Danger." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/coral-reefs-indanger-of-being-destroyed-1908544.html>. News article written by science reporter explaining and warning about the threat to coral reefs. "Impact of Habitat Loss on Species." WWF. Global Charities, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/species/problems/habitat_loss_degradation/>.

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theories. Also discusses media coverage and slight venture into the psychology of it.
"Small Asteroids Pose Big New Threat." Space.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.space.com/4760-small-asteroids-pose-big-threat.html>.- Covers

Tunguska asteroid impact , and danger of small asteroids.

Choi, Charles Q. "Doomsday Fears." LiveScience.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.livescience.com/14173-doomsday-scenarios-apocalypse-2012.html>.-Covers 10

possible apocalyptic scenarios, super volcanoes, extra terrestrials, gamma Bursts, Epidemics, Black Holes, Solar Bursts, Cosmic Impacts, Nuclear Winter, and AI.
"Apocalypse Not Now: NASA Debunks Doomsday Predictions." Msnbc.com. Msnbc Digital Network, 01 Jan. 2012. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45834574/ns/technology_and_sciencespace/t/apocalypse-not-now-nasa-debunks-doomsday-predictions/>.-Nasa Rebukes 2012

Doomsday theories, using science and logic.

"Apocalyptic Fiction." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 22 Jan. 2013. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalyptic_and_post-apocalyptic_fiction>.In-depth Wikepedia

article about the fiction of apocalypse, provides many links to other articles covering doomsday scenarios.
"Psychology Of An Apocalypse." My Science News. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://blog.mysciencework.com/en/2012/02/21/2012-psychology-of-an-apocalypse.html>. -Goes

into some detail over the psychology behind the apocalypse, why some people crave for it, and comparing it to a type of religion or justice. This whole concept manifests around the human need for change, perfection and an eye for an eye. Uses Y2K as study material. Why people continue predictions after supposed apocalypses fail.
"Future of the Earth." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 21 Jan. 2013. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_the_Earth>.- Explains many possible, likely/unlikely

future events in Earths existence. Including Mass Extinctions by Random Events, increases in solar luminosity, and human influence.
"Impact: Earth!" Purdue. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/>.Configurable simulator or a cosmic impact on

earth, varied size, velocity, material composition, can be used to plot data.
"C-ROADS." Climate Interactive. Morgan Family Foundation, n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://climateinteractive.org/simulations/C-ROADS/overview>.Very in-depth and highly

configurable and varied climate change simulator. It shows many forms of data including CO2 per capital, methane emissions, ocean level rising, and more. Widely used and reliable source, even used in real U.N. climate change meetings.

Wilkinson, C. , 2004 , Foreword, Countries, States and Territories Acknowledgements, Co-sponsors and supporters of GCRMN, Introduction and Executive Summary. . p: I-66. in C. Wilkinson (ed.). Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004. Volume 1. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia. 301 p. Information on status of coral reefs across the globes backed by statistics and studies. Isgro, Timothy A., Marcos Sotomayor, and Eduardo Cruz-Chu. Biophysics Group. University Of Illnois, n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.ks.uiuc.edu/Training/CaseStudies/pdfs/water1.pdf>. Very credible website sponsored by a university and concentrated on biophysics. This case study explains water & ice in depth using models and practical experiments. Explains why ice takes up more volume then water, in the utmost brevity. Waiters, James C. Human Impact on Environmental Change. N.p.: B. Blackwell, 1981, 2001. Print. Highly in-depth book analyzing humanities impact on the environment both physically, biologically, intentionally and unconsciously. Uses numerous real-life examples and facts throughout to clarify and support his statements and emphasizes the necessity for conservative efforts. "When Was the First Computer Invented?" Computer Hope. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm>. Timeline of computers
"Deep Blue (Computer)." Chess Games. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2013. <http://www.chessgames.com/player/deep_blue.html>. Game history and concise description of Deep Blue, the first computer to beat a master chess player. "Marble Estimation." Astro Washington. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.astro.washington.edu/courses/labs/clearinghouse/homeworks/marbles.html>. -

Average marble diameter

Choi, Charles Q. "Double Trouble: What Really Killed the Dinosaurs." LiveScience.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.livescience.com/2038-double-trouble-killed-dinosaurs.html>. -

foraminifera and Volcanic C-T extinction event.

"Indian Dinosaurs Not Killed By Meteorites." Daily News & Analysis. N.p., 9 Dec. 2012. Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://www.dnaindia.com/scitech/report_indian-dinosaurs-were-not-killed-bymeteorites_1775374>.- Report on possible extinction of dinosaurs via volcanic

outbursts in Deccan Traps.

Strobel, Nick. "Solar System Fluff." Astronomy Notes. N.p., n.d. Web. 2013 Jan. 2013. <http://www.astronomynotes.com/solfluf/s5.htm>. - Effects of asteroid impact on Earth,

force , firestorm, etc.

"Necessary Meteor Size To Penetrate Atmosphere." HowStuffWorks. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://science.howstuffworks.com/question486.htm>. - Explains science of meteor impacts

"Asteroids: Zoom Astronomy." Enchanted Learning. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/asteroids/>. - Average asteroid

diameter in belt
Mihos, Chris. "Asteroids." Bureau Of Astronomy. CWRU, n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2013. <http://burro.astr.cwru.edu/stu/asteroid.html>. - Facts , explanation, and figures on

asteroids; including the common <1km trend in their diameter.

"Earth Impact Effects." Impact. Imperial College, n.d. Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/>.- Impact event simulator, comets/asteroids.

Screenshots of inserted data in pictures folder. The estimations made in the calculations are susceptible to uncertainties given the limited understanding of celestial impacts.
Hawkes, Bob. "A Comet or Asteroid Impact with the Earth." Meteorites and Impacts Advisory Committee. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://miac.uqac.ca/MIAC/impactearth.htm>. - Comet

impact probability
"Asteroid Comet Impact Hazards." National Aeronautics and Space Administration. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro.cfm>. - NASA page on comet impacts, brief but

informative and reliable.

"What Is a Solar Flare?" National Aeronautics and Space Administration. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Jan. 2013. <http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/flare.htm>. - Short informative depiction of solar

flares, gives statistics and facts as well as the composition of such a flare.
"The Earth's Magnetic Field." Astro Wiki. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Jan. 2013. <http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/earth/magnetic.html>. - Describes the Earths

magnetic field, its inner and outer Van Allen belts, possible origin via magnetic fluids in the outer core and its utility as shield against solar wind.
"Solar Flare." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 22 Jan. 2013. Web. 24 Jan. 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare>. - In-depth article on solar flares, user-

generated however only the history of solar flares was used on the 4 November 2003 event; which is a proven event.
"Gamma Ray Burst Risk." The Conversation. N.p., 22 Feb 2012 Web. 23 Jan. 2013. <http://theconversation.edu.au/flash-aah-aah-could-a-gamma-ray-burst-eradicate-all-life-on-earth5291>. - Describes theories on cause of gamma ray bursts and its effect if one

where to hit us, ozone depletion and UV radiation.

"Gamma Ray Bursts." National Aeronautics and Space Administration. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Jan. 2013. <http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/science/know_l1/bursts.html>.Nasa page on gamma ray

bursts , detailed and up-to-date with images of bursts by telescopes and information on their origin and remaining mysteries.
Wilkins, Alasdair. "Gamma-rays from a Star Caused Anextinction." IO9. N.p., 8 Jan. 2012. Web. 24 Jan. 2013. <http://io9.com/5874028/deadly-gamma rays-from-an-exploding-star-might-have-caused-amass-extinction>. Article on gamma ray bursts, mostly a reference back-up source

to validate information. In-depth and broad however slightly opinionated.

"Half Of All Food Wasted." BBC News. BBC, 14 Jan. 2013. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/learningenglish/language/wordsinthenews/2013/01/130111_witn _food_waste.shtml>. - Food wasted half annually Press, Associated. "UN: Farmers Must Produce 70% More Food by 2050 to Feed Population." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 28 Nov. 2011. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/28/un-farmers-produce-food-population>. - 70%

increase in productivity necessary

"Use Of Resources Per Person Per Country." Europa. European Environment Agency, 14 Jan. 2011. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/use-of-resources-per-person >.Figures resource demand per capita "List of Countries by Energy Consumption per Capita." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 02 Jan. 2013. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita>. - More

figures resource demand per capita, energy

Conaway, Laura. "The Price Of Bread." NPR. NPR, 15 Apr. 2009. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/04/the_price_of_bread.html>. -NPR based data on the

history in wheat prices & bread.

Clark, Duncan. "How Long Do Greenhouse Gases Stay in the Air?" The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 16 Jan. 2012. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhouse-gases-remain-air>. -Q&A on

greenhouse gases lifespan. The guardian is a reliable widely used source with no necessity for bias in its environmental section.
Weart, Spencer. "Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations." Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations. N.p., May 2011. Web. 03 Feb. 2013. <http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm>. -Graph on

Vostok Icecore, used to extrapolate to potential future scenarios and the more rapid temperature shifts currently occurring.
Block, Ben. "Coral Reef Loss Suggests Global Extinction Event." Worldwatch Institute. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5960>. - Article on coral reef decline pointing

at a global mass extinction event, the sixth one, amongst other news of crumbling ecosystems.
"The Top 100 Effects of Global Warming." Center for American Progress. Mic Check Radio, 24 Sept. 2007. Web. 26 Feb. 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2007/09/24/3462/the-top100-effects-of-global-warming/>. - Collection of effects of global warming for humanity,

makes the issue more real and daunting for the self-oriented humanity. Very comprehensive and covers some not yet considered points such as increased human movement due to sea level rise which in turn causes border tensions.
Parry, Wynne. "2 Degrees of Warming a Recipe for Disaster, NASA Scientist Says."LiveScience.com. N.p., 6 Dec. 2011. Web. 03 Feb. 2013. <http://www.livescience.com/17340-agu-climate-sensitivity-nasahansen.html>. - Article on fragility of 2C goal, which in itself is too little to prevent

disastrous effects. Uses ice core history as reference to the fragility of weather and the increased heat absorption due to ice melting, the darker ice is more absorbent. Mentions difficulty of prediction due to rapid increase in short time frame.
"Effects of Global Warming." National Geographic. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-effects/>. -National

geographic compilation of main detrimental effects of global warming. Very reliable and educational source.
"Quick Facts on Ice Sheets." National Snow and Ice Data Center. University Of Colorado Boulder, Cires, n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html>. - Informative

article on ice sheets and their various statistics.

Lovgren, Stefan. "Warming to Cause Catastrophic Rise in Sea Level?" National Geographic. News, 26 Apr. 2004. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0420_040420_earthday.html>. - Article on

uncertainty surrounding global warming and potential catastrophic consequences.

"Density of Ice." Elmhurst. Virtual Chembook, 2003. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/122Adensityice.html>. - Scientific explanation of ice & water properties and the reasons behind them. Education site.
Biodiversity/Ecology:

"Extinction Natural vs Human Caused." Russel Labs Website Hosting. University Of Winconsin, n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://labs.russell.wisc.edu/peery/files/2011/12/7.-

Extinction-a-Natural-and-Human-caused-Process.pdf>. - Simple documentation, imageoriented, on extinction of life. Includes some useful statistics and information. Erickson, Jim. "Ecosystem Effects of Biodiversity Loss Could Rival Impacts of Climate Change, Pollution." News Service. University of Michigan, n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.ns.umich.edu/new/multimedia/slideshows/20366-ecosystem-effects-ofbiodiversity-loss-could-rival-impacts-of-climate-change-pollution>. - Article on detrimental effects of loss in biodiversity and its effect on the productivity of ecosystems. Curtis, Steve. "Extinctions in 2012: A Lesson For Humanity." Policy Mic. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.policymic.com/articles/21770/extinctions-in-2012-a-lesson-forhumanity>. - Steady article that depicts extinction events and their effect in 2012 as well as explaining some scientific principles/statistics behind it. "How Many Species Are We Losing?" WWF. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/biodiversity/biodiversity/>.WWF, reliable and international. Page on biodiversity and the uncertainty of species lost due to the wide variety of non-chronicled species. Vince, Gaia. "A Looming Mass Extinction Caused by Humans." BBC News. British Broadcasting Channel, 1 Nov. 2012. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20121101-a-looming-mass-extinction>. - In-depth article on the Holocene extinction path currently being followed, gives strict statistics on biodiversity loss in the future. Discusses humanities influence by movement of pests, invasive species, and livestock as well as domestication of animals. Discussed impracticality of clone-rescuing extinct species. Lofgren, Kristine. "The World's Coral Reefs May Become Extinct." Inhabitat. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://inhabitat.com/the-worlds-coral-reefs-may-become-extinct-by-2100warn-scientists/>.- Short article on coral reef extinctions by 2100, sourced via links to moderately valid sources. Aimed towards a more picture-oriented audience though. Vince, Gaia. "How the Worlds Oceans Could Be Running out of Fish." BBC News. BBC, n.d. Web. 27 Feb. 2013. <http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120920-are-we-running-out-offish/3>.- Article on the potential exhaustion of global fish stocks, informative and uses statistics. "When Will Oil Run Out?" Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE). N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/energy/energy-supply/fossil-

energy/when-will-oil-run-out>. Document providing statistics on the status of global oil supply. Discusses peak oil. "Rainforest Statistics Facts." Rainforest Statistics Facts. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.savetheamazon.org/rainforeststats.htm>. Length of statistics on rainforests, methods of conservation and status. "All Seafood Will Run out in 2050, Say Scientists." Telegraph. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Jan. 2013. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1533125/All-seafood-will-run-out-in-2050-sayscientists.html>. Article on the potential for decimation of seafood supplies by 2046 due to over-exploitation. "The World Will Run Out of Silver in Nine Years." Wealth Wire. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/2290>.- Economic outlook on silver supplies due to industrial and aesthetical demand. "Data." The World Bank. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2013. <http://data.worldbank.org/?display=graph>. Site riddled with statistics, graphs, and figures on numerous topics including energy consumption, agriculture and economical data. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief." World Food Situation:. N.p., n.d. Web. 2 Feb. 2013. <http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/csdb/en/>.-UN organization monitoring global food status in terms of supply, demand and relief. Very reliable and credible source. Used to get data and turn it into custom graph. "Ice Core Gateway." NOAA Paleoclimatology World Data Centers Vostok Ice Core. N.p., n.d. Web. 2 Feb. 2013. <http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok.html>. Official data on a collaborative project of France, Russia and USA which retrieved the deepest ever recorded ice core
"Poodwaddle." Poodwaddle. N.p., n.d. Web. 06 Feb. 2013. <http://www.poodwaddle.com/clocks/earthclock/>.

"NASA's Van Allen Probes Reveal a New Radiation Belt Around Earth."ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 28 Feb. 2013. Web. 05 Mar. 2013. <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130228155430.htm>. Article on the third discovered Von Allen radiation belt which is kept in place by magnetic fields. Allowing rough visibility of Earths magnetic fields.