March 8, 2013

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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 63% of our universe and almost 26% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 sectors are calculated to be overvalued. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
14089.66 3159.46 914.05 1518.2

Thurs Close
14329.49 3232.09 934.57 1544.26

Change
239.83 72.63 20.52 26.06

% Change
1.70% 2.30% 2.24% 1.72%

YTD
9.61% 7.21% 10.52% 8.50%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 36.74% 63.26% 14.99% 25.80%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.64% 0.62% 0.88% -0.01% 0.54% 0.18% 0.20% 0.98% 0.13% 0.79% 0.14% 0.30% 1.08% 0.32% 0.13% 0.22%

MTD
0.19% 0.82% 2.48% 1.93% 1.42% 1.81% 2.75% 3.30% 1.92% 2.08% 2.20% 0.77% 0.98% 2.05% 1.92% 1.44%

YTD
6.51% 6.51% 4.61% 9.72% 9.87% 10.45% 11.44% 8.23% 10.86% 10.84% 10.32% 4.72% 7.65% 12.64% 15.96% 5.72%

Valuation
7.63% overvalued 12.97% overvalued 5.24% undervalued 14.35% overvalued 15.77% overvalued 22.00% overvalued 11.58% overvalued 22.51% overvalued 17.93% overvalued 15.45% overvalued 9.52% overvalued 9.24% overvalued 5.78% overvalued 15.16% overvalued 20.93% overvalued 11.09% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
4.53% 6.79% -27.82% 12.71% 2.63% 25.83% 8.65% 9.77% 14.18% 6.94% 9.89% 12.91% -14.60% 15.23% 5.01% 2.88%

P/E Ratio
13.91 15.83 19.67 21.34 25.98 25.66 22.95 19.87 17.52 18.63 23.71 15.53 24.08 19.73 20.25 17.63

Sector TalkFinance
Below, we present the latest data on leading Finance Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SNFCA CPSS NCT FBC OCN

Name
SEC NATL FINL A CONS PORTFOLIO NEWCASTLE INV FLAGSTAR BANCP OCWEN FINL CORP

Mkt Price
7.27 9.05 11.19 14.28 40.79

Valuation(%)
N/A N/A -66.42 -75 6.75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

478.32 570.37 88.07 56.92 153.83

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SNFCA CPSS NCT FBC OCN

Name
SEC NATL FINL A CONS PORTFOLIO NEWCASTLE INV FLAGSTAR BANCP OCWEN FINL CORP

Mkt Price
7.27 9.05 11.19 14.28 40.79

Valuation(%)
N/A N/A -66.42 -75 6.75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

478.32 570.37 88.07 56.92 153.83

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
FBC AIG NCT AEG BPOP

Name
FLAGSTAR BANCP AMER INTL GRP NEWCASTLE INV AEGON N V POPULAR INC

Mkt Price
14.28 39.01 11.19 6.19 27.98

Valuation(%)
-75 -42.32 -66.42 -20.11 -25.83

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.92 32.46 88.07 23.8 50.43

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
FSP AI RSO BKMU MNR

Name
FRANKLIN ST PPT ARLINGTON ASSET RESOURCE CAPITL BANK MUTUAL CRP MONMOUTH RE CLA

Mkt Price
14.08 26.42 6.67 5.65 10.91

Valuation(%)
300 300 300 300 300

Last 12-M Retn(%)

35.65 15.07 14.02 54.79 14.72

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Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00
This week's free download is our report on Google. (GOOG). Google Inc. is a technology company that provides a web based search engine through its website. The Company offers a wide range of search options, including web, image, groups, directory, and news searches. It serves corporate clients, including advertisers, content publishers and site managers with cost-effective advertising and a wide range of revenue generating search services. Google Inc. is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Google HERE.

(LINK IS WORKING/NEW LINK SYSTEM DIRECT DOWNLOAD)

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.991) Semiannual value levels are 2.476 and 3.063 with my annual pivot at 1.981, and daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.949, 1.932, 1.796 and 1.413.

Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1577.7) The December 2011 low is $1523.9 with daily and annual pivots at $1572.1 and $1599.9, and weekly, semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1604.8, $1719.2, $1737.6, $1802.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($91.56) The 200-week SMA is $86.64 with a daily value level at $90.57, the 200- day SMA at $90.35, and weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels at $95.72, $95.84, $98.23, $115.23 and $115.42. The Euro (1.3103) Daily and semiannual value levels are 1.3054 and 1.2797 with monthly, annual, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3249, 1.3257, 1.3334, 1.3430 and 1.4295. Major Indices Daily DOW (14,329) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 13,949, 13,920, 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with a semiannual pivot at 14,323, and weekly and daily risky levels at 14,387 and 14,540. Set a new all time high at 14,354.69 on February 7, 2013 with a new all time closing high at 14,329.4. S&P 500 (1544.3) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1528.6, 1431.1 and 1348.3 with weekly, daily and semiannual risky levels at 1547.7, 1565.7 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09. NASDAQ (3232) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3197, 3071, 2806 and 2790 with a weekly pivot at 3226 and daily and semiannual risky levels at 3265 and 3583. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2799) Annual value levels are 2463 and 2385 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 2779 and 2798, and monthly and daily risky levels at 2809 and 2830. The September 21, 2012 high is 2878.38. Dow Transports (6081) Semiannual, annual, monthly, annual and quarterly value levels are 5955, 5925, 5522, 5469 and 5094 with weekly and daily risky levels at 6192 and 6238. The March 5 close at 6136.72 was another new all time closing high. Russell 2000 (934.57) Monthly, annual, quarterly and annual value levels are 913.99, 901.68, 860.25, 821.01 and 809.54 with weekly, daily and semiannual risky levels at 936.95, 943.94 and 965.51. The Russell 2000 set another new all time high at 934.57 on March 7.

The SOX (434.68) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 404.22, 371.62 and 338.03 with daily, quarterly, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 440.40, 440.36, 441.87 and 520.17. The July 2007 high is 549.39.

With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates--Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.

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