DOI: 10.

2478/v10043-009-0027-2

Acta Zoologica Lituanica, 2009, Volumen 19, Numerus 3 ISSN 1648-6919

Can ReCent StRategieS of BiRd diveRSity ConSeRvation Be effeCtive in the 21St CentuRy in the faCe of inCReaSing impaCt of gloBal Climate Change?
Meislovas alakeviius*, liutauras RaudonikiS, Galina Bartkeviien
Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University, Akademijos 2, LT-08412, Vilnius-21, Lithuania * Corresponding author; e-mail: zalakevicius@ekoi.lt abstract. This paper analyses the potential response of bird species preserved in special protected areas (SPA) of Lithuania to climate change throughout the 21st century. The effectiveness of SPA territories in recently existing system of their designation and related problems are discussed. The results of analysis show that with withdrawal of the range in north-eastern direction 17 out of the 49 species protected in Lithuanian SPAs and breeding on western, south-western and southern peripheries of entire species range will be primarily affected and are likely to become extinct. The remaining 32 species with recent populations on northern, north-eastern, eastern, north-western peripheries and central part of the species range in Lithuania benefit from climate warming and, most likely, will not get extinct. It is evident that throughout the 21st century due to climate change 1/3 of the protected species in 72 SPAs designated in Lithuania will be at risk of extinction. A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds (Huntley et al. 2007) predicts extinction of eight more species in the territories of Lithuanian SPA. The model we have applied and our projection, however, fail to confirm this prediction. The analysis of the future prospects for SPA territories in the 21st century shows all qualifying species to potentially survive in 41 SPA out of the 72 investigated. In four territories up to 1/4 of the qualifying species are likely to become extinct, in 19 territories from 1/4 to 3/4 and in eight territories all qualifying species are at risk of extinction. Accordingly, slightly over 60% of SPAs in Lithuania will remain functioning in the 21st century provided that climate change proceeds at the forecasted rate. These changes reveal new urgent practical problems at the science-policy interface. The nature conservation objectives recently formulated on the assumption of climate stability must be replaced by the new working rules adapted to new changing enviromental conditions. We must find a new approach to threats faced by birds and a new vision of their protection, stressing the importance of the knowledge of the species-specific ecology of habitat selection, migratory status of breeding birds, the populations location within the entire species range as well as trends and scope of the regional climate change for the development of effective measures and ways for bird protection. key words: climate change impact, bird diversity conservation, special protected areas (SPA)

IntroductIon
It is ascertained that global climate change is affecting Earths ecosystems and their constituent parts habitats, species, distribution ranges, population state, richness and composition of communities (Burton 1995; Viksne 2000; Peterson et al. 2001; alakeviius & alakeviit 2001; Nikiforov 2003; Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004; Parmesan 2005; Viksne et al. 2005; alakeviius 1999, 2001, 2007; Zalakevicius et al. 2006; alakeviius et al. 2006; Newton 2003, 2008; Huntley et al. 2007). The northern range boundaries of breeding birds are limited by cold temperatures; the southern range limit is determined by such climatic factors as heat or lack of water (Root 1988; Newton 2003, 2008; Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004). In this connection, the impact of climate change on breeding popula-

tions of birds differs in different parts of the species range (Timofeev-Resovskij et al. 1973; Krebs 1985; alakeviius 1999, 2001). The majority of birds breeding in the central part of the range or on its northern, north-eastern and eastern periphery benefit from climate warming whereas the birds breeding on its southern, south-western and western periphery lose (a decrease in numbers of the latter species is observed). Populations breeding on north-western periphery of species range are likely to be attributed to those less threatened under the impact of climate change. Climate in the region has been changing considerably. Since the 1970s, positive spring temperature deviations have become dominant, and since 1988 positive spring and summer temperature deviations have prevailed (alakeviius et al. 2006). Mean spring temperature anomalies were -0.8C for 19501971 and +0.5C, p <

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0.001 for 19722004. A similar pattern was observed in summer temperatures: negative anomalies made up 58% (22 out of 38) for 19501987 and positive anomalies amounted to 65% (11 out of 17) for 19882004. Mean summer temperature anomalies for 19501987 were -0.3C, whereas for 19882004 they were +0.5C, p < 0.0001 (alakeviius et al. 2006). Variations in winter, spring and summer precipitation level were recorded since 1950: a statistically significant increase in winter (p < 0.02) and cold period (NovMar; p < 0.001) precipitation (alakeviius et al. 2006). Climate models designed for the Baltic region (the Baltic states included) for the 21st century anticipate greater variations of air temperature and precipitation compared with the end of the 20th century (Rimkus 2007; Rimkus et al. 2007). In Lithuania the greatest absolute alterations are anticipated for the cold season (48C increase of air temperature in winter), the least for the warm season (1.53.5C increase of air temperature in summer). A particularly rapid rise of air temperature (39C) is forecasted for February. Precipitation amount will grow in winter and spring and will drop in summer and autumn. The second half of summer and the beginning of autumn in Lithuania is expected to be marked by very enhanced aridity. Snow cover characteristics will also undergo changes: until the middle of the 21st century average duration of snow cover in Lithuania will shrink by 1525 days. In the western part of Lithuania permanent snow cover will form barely once in five years (Rimkus et al. 2007). With decreased precipitation in the future Lithuanian wetlands and shallow watered and moist habitats would be markedly affected by climate change. Intensive melioration of wetlands and shallow watered and moist habitats carried out until the last decade of the 20th century also has a great impact on this process. Noticeable reduction of soil humidity due to diminished precipitation amount and increased entire surface evaporation with air temperature rising is being forecasted, too (Stoneviius et al. 2008). It is obvious that alterations in all the said climate parameters will have a direct or indirect impact on bird populations breeding in Lithuania, their estimates, species structure, the areas occupied and species survival. Some research results point at shifts of ranges of breeding bird species under the impact of climate change (warming) in the Northern Hemisphere (Burton 1995; Peterson 2003b; Huntley et al. 2006). In Great Britain and North America the ranges shift in the northern direction (Peterson 2003b), whereas in the Baltic countries due to geographic position of eastern Baltic region countries (Fig. 1) the shift takes the north-eastern direction (alakeviius 1999, 2001, 2007). The latest and largest study introducing the forecast of

ranges of European birds for the 21st century (Huntley et al. 2007) has been performed in Great Britain basing on the results of The EBCC Atlas of European breeding birds (Hagemeijer & Blair 1997) and up-to-date modelling methods. In this article the forecast of survival of the 49 species under protection in 72 special protected areas (SPA) of Lithuania was made using earlier applied and published methods (alakeviius 1999). The article presents a comparison of the obtained results with the material on populations of Lithuanian breeding species by Huntley et al. (2007). Under impact of climate change the shift of ranges, variation in population state and diversity of species pose new problems in nature protection, complicate the procedures of designating protected territories as well as adoption of management measures therein. New requirements are being imposed on these territories, among which the following should be mentioned: assessment of future prospects of protected territories, which has to be made at the moment of their designation with the view of the climate change impact and taking into consideration their position in their spacial location, intensification of their monitoring or more frequent revision of their status. Naturally, they are closely associated with new challenges in territory planning, elaboration and amendment of legislation, additional expenses for monitoring of the state of protected species or scientific research. International conservation efforts are currently focused on important bird areas supporting threatened species, from which they are likely to withdraw due to the climate change impact (Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004; Arujo et al. 2004). What is more, new territories sometimes must be designated in areas of conflicting land use (Erasmus et al. 2002). Climate change impact also complicates the forecast of future prospects of the protected territories (alakeviius 2002; alakeviius & vaas 2005). It is obvious that most nature conservation objectives have been formulated basing on the assumption of climate stability and on the premise that representing species within appropriately managed reserves would ensure their long-term persistence (Cabeza & Moilanen 2001; Tomiaoj 2003; Araujo et al. 2004). This approach so far existing in EU countries should be modified and new ideas and aims should be developed in the process of designation and management of protected areas. We have to learn to forecast future conditions in protected areas and to create optimal specific conditions for species survival. It is necessary to devise a flexible legal mechanism allowing the use of the most effective and optimal conservation scenario, including the designation of new SPAs and various site management actions. To ensure the protection of EU threatened bird species,

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among other measures, Bird Directive schedules to establish a network of SPA territories designated for bird protection in each Member State. The designation of such territories aims at ensuring relevant protection of all bird species listed in the Annex I of Bird Directive on the national and EU level. Accordingly, an appropriate number of SPAs should be established for each species, which regularly breed in a certain EU country (in rather significant numbers in each site). There is one general requirement for such territories, namely, the established network must preserve a significant portion of the national population of every species of EU importance. In the face of changing conditions in protected territories and extinction of species therein, the EU Bird Directive does not stipulate any mechanisms of SPA removal. On the contrary, SPAs are established forever. Meanwhile, recent changes in the environment bring about changes in avifauna including bird species in designated SPAs. This publication is a discussion of the present situation in Lithuania from this point of view and a survey of future prospects in the light of recent global climate change and its impacts. Proposals for the optimisation of SPA and other protected territories designation mechanisms are provided basing on the scientific research data.

MaterIal and Methods

All 72 SPA territories presently designated in Lithuania with official protection of 49 breeding bird species

therein were selected for the survey. Species potential future breeding distribution forecast was performed for all species using authors previously published methods (alakeviius 1999, 2001). For all 49 protected breeding bird species separately the population location within the entire species range (i.e. the Lithuanian breeding population may be in the central or peripheral part of the species range) was identified (Table 1). Some earlier publications proved a tendency for north-eastward shift of ranges in Lithuania, Latvia and Belarus (alakeviius 1999, 2001; Viksne 2000; Viksne et al. 2005; Nikiforov 2003; Fig. 1). The north-eastwards displacement in Europe has also been indicated by Huntley et al. (2007). Basing on the above logical scheme and newly updated information on ranges (Kurlaviius 2006; Huntley et al. 2007), species breeding and protected in the territories of 72 SPAs presently designated in Lithuania were classified and estimated according to location of their populations on the periphery of the entire range of species distribution (Table 1). The results were compared with the projection of species breeding in Lithuania for the 21st century published by Huntley et al. (2007). In this publication the data used were taken from The EBCC Atlas of European breeding birds (Hagemeijer & Blair 1997). With the recently available species-climate models and a scenario of the potential future values of the bioclimatic variables (winter cold, summer warmth, and moisture availability; on the basis of global circulation models) used in fitting this model, it was straightforward to simulate the species potential future breeding distribution (Huntley et al. 2007). In this study, when assessing the potential extinction of a species in a country or in a separate SPA, we had in mind not only its total extinction, but also a significant decrease in its abundance, when an extant sparse local species population is not able to survive independently for a longer period of time and has no long-term prospects.

results
The results obtained using our model coincide with the forecast presented by Huntley et al. (2007) for 41 out of the 49 investigated species (83.7% of the cases) (Table 1). According to our model, eight out of the 49 investigated species will not become extinct in Lithuania, whereas Huntley et al. (2007) predict that as global warming progresses throughout the 21st century these species are likely to retreat from Lithuania (Sterna albifrons, Chlidonias niger, Recurvirostra avosetta, Luscinia svecica, Acrocephalus paludicola, Grus grus,

Figure 1. General scheme of a gradual retreat of bird ranges north-eastward under the influence of global climate change in the Baltic states (alakeviius 2001).

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Aquila pomarina, Bubo bubo). Five out of these eight species with Lithuanian breeding populations are in a patchily distributed range or are far away from the continuous range, i.e. beyond the boundaries of the entire species distribution range (S. albifrons, R. avosetta, L. svecica, A. paludicola, B. bubo). Table 1 presents 17 species (indicated in bold type) out of the 49 under investigation (34.7%) whose populations are likely to become primarily threatened or extinct with the range moving in the north-eastern direction (due to geographical situation of the Baltic states with respect to Baltic seacoast line; Fig. 1). Lithuanian breeding populations of these species are on western, south-western and southern peripheries of the entire range of species distribution. As global warming progresses, 32 species (65.3%) out of the 49 species breeding in SPAs with their populations in Lithuania on northern, north-eastern, eastern
Table 1. Some related characteristics of SPA protected species.
Species Gavia arctica* Botaurus stellaris* Ciconia nigra* Cygnus cygnus* Aythya nyroca* Pandion haliaetus* Aquila pomarina** Haliaeetus albicilla* Pernis apivorus* Circus aeruginosus* Circus pygargus* Milvus migrans* Tetrao urogallus* Tetrao tetrix* Crex crex* Porzana porzana* Porzana parva* Bonasa bonasia* Grus grus** Recurvirostra avosetta** Pluvialis apricaria* Tringa glareola* Philomachus pugnax* Galinago media* Calidris alpina* Range periphery and character (migratory status) S, F (S) NE, R (S) NW, R (L) S, F (S) N, F (L) S, F (L) NW, R (L) C, F (V) C, F (L) NE, R (L) N, R (L) N, F (L) SW, F (R) SW, F (R) C, R (L) C, R (L) N, F (L) W, R (R) C, R (L) NE, F (L) S, F (L) SW, F (L) S, F (L) SW, F (L) S, F (L)

and north-western peripheries and central part of the species distribution range benefit from the situation. Accordingly, Table 1 demonstrates that with further climate warming throughout the 21st century, 1/3 of the protected species in 72 SPA territories designated in Lithuania will be at greatest risk of extinction. Huntley et al. (2007) forecast extinction of eight more species in Lithuanian SPA territories. This phenomenon, however, was not predicted by our model (Table 1). Analysis of 49 species protected in SPAs shows that 30 of them (61.2%) are long-distance migrants, 11 (22.4%) are residents, seven (14.3%) are short- or medium-distance migrants and one is a vagrant. Out of the 17 species that are likely to be primarily affected and will be at risk of extinction six species are identified as long-distance migrants, seven as residents and four as short- or medium-distance migrants.

Species Larus minutus* Sterna hirundo* Sterna albifrons** Chlidonias niger** Chlidonias hybridus* Bubo bubo** Strix uralensis* Glaucidium passerinum* Aegolius funereus* Asio flammeus* Caprimulgus europeus* Alcedo atthis* Coracias garrulus* Dryocopus martius* Dendrocopos medius* Picus canus* Dendrocopos leucotos* Picoides tridactylus* Anthus campestris* Lullula arborea* Luscinia svecica** Acrocephalus paludicola** Lanius collurio* Emberiza hortulana*

Range periphery and character (migratory status) SW, F (S) C, R (L) C, F (L) NW, R (L) N, F (L) C, F (R) SW, F (R) S, F (R) SW, F (S) C, F (S) C, R (L) N, R (S) NW, F (L) C, R (R) N, I (R) C, F (R) W, F (R) SW, F (R) N, F (L) N, R (L) C, F (L) N, F (L) C, R (L) C, F (L)

* Results coincide with the forecast presented by Huntley et al. (2007); ** Results do not coincide with the forecast presented by Huntley et al. (2007) [according to Huntley et al. (2007), these species will retreat from Lithuania, while according to our model performance these species ought to survive]. Species at risk of extinction in SPA territories are indicated in bold type; Range periphery: area occupied by the population in the continuous species range: N northern, NE north-eastern, E eastern, C central, NW north-western, W western, SW south-western, S southern, SE south-eastern; Range character (continuity of population range): R population in the continuous species range; F population in the restricted and patchily distributed range beyond the boundaries of the continuous species range; Migration status of birds (indicated in brackets): R resident, S short- or medium-distance migrants, L long-distance migrants, V vagrant

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Table 2. Future prospects of SPA territories designated in Lithuania (forecast for the 21st century).
Species, % at risk of extinction Number of territories (part, %) 0 (all species surviving) 41 (56.9%) 125 4 (5.6%) 25.150 13 (18.1%) 50.175 6 (8.3%) 75.199 0 (0%) 100 (all species are at risk of extinction) 8 (11.1%)

Following the forecast of SPA protected species of Lithuanian breeding populations, we present a forecast of the future prospects of SPA territories in the 21st century (Table 2). Potentially all the protected species will survive in 41 SPA territory out of the 72 under investigation (56.9% of territories). Up to 1/4 of the protected species will be at risk of extinction in four territories (5.6%), from 1/4 to 3/4 species can become extinct in 19 territories (26.4%), all species are likely to become extinct in eight territories (11.1%). Given that climate change progresses on the scale forecasted by climatologists, slightly over 60% of the territories will have future prospects in the 21st century, whereas about 40% of the territories will have to be revised and newly designated.

dIscussIon
It is widely accepted that the most important environmental problem facing the world today is humaninduced climate change, affecting ecosystems, habitats and the vast majority of wild living organisms (Lovejoy & Hannah 2005). As breeding ranges of most bird species are ultimately determined by the climate acting on birds directly or indirectly through the development of habitats and human land use, it is extremely important just now to try to predict ecological impacts and take some mitigating measures to help conserve birds and reduce species extinction rates (Huntley et al. 2007). Impacts on species distribution have implications with respect to extinction risk (Thomas et al. 2004, 2006) and to future biodiversity patterns (Peters & Lovejoy 1992; Lovejoy & Hannah 2005). Consequently, they are important for designing and implementing biodiversity conservation strategies (Peters 1992; Tomiaoj 2003; Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004; Arujo et al. 2004). It is obvious that recent conservation strategies are not properly adapted to climate change induced impacts on biological diversity (Arujo et al. 2004). Most of the nature conservation objectives have been formulated basing on the assumption of climatic stability (Tomiaoj 2003). In the process of designation and establishment of the protected territories and their incorporation into the NATURA 2000 network the climate change factors were not taken into consideration (alakeviius 2007).

To ensure protection of EU threatened bird species, among other measures, Bird Directive schedules to establish a network of SPA territories designated for bird protection in each Member State (Council Directive 79/409/EEC of 2 April 1979 on the Conservation of Wild Birds). Establishment of such territories aims at ensuring relevant protection of all bird species listed in the Annex I of Bird Directive on the national and EU level. Accordingly, an appropriate number of SPAs should be established for each species. There are no requirements concerning the number and legal protection status in establishing such territories. However, there is a general requirement for such territories, namely, the established network must preserve a significant part of the national population of every species of EU importance. The Lithuanian legislation in force states that preliminary boundaries of the territories to be designated as important for bird protection are defined taking into consideration the concentration of appropriate species habitats which has to be large in the proposed territories or parts of the territories (in comparison with neighbouring territories). The proposed territories or parts of the territories must have long-term protection prospects (Order No D1358 of Lithuanian Republic Minister of Environment On Ratification of Criteria for Selection of Territories Important to Bird Protection dated 200807-02; Official Gazette, 2008, No 773048). European Commission recommends the application of Important bird areas (IBA) selection methods, including selection criteria which are widely used by BirdLife International. The IBA network, however, is a sufficiently flexible instrument enabling alterations in IBA lists if some of them lose their importance following the extinction of protected species or after a severe decline of their local populations in some locations. Quite frequently such processes take a natural course and cannot be influenced by human efforts. Climate change, natural fluctuations in populations, changes in the neighbouring territories are some of the natural causes. Moreover, a species can become extinct due to changes outside the boundaries of the protected territory: in winter quarters or on migratory routes. In such cases BirdLife International recommends designation of new IBAs. The EU Bird Directive, however, does not stipulate any mechanisms for removal of SPA, even after extinction of the protected species in the territory. Moreover, there is no legal background for it, as SPAs are established forever.

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The existing system of protected territories is becoming ineffective under the impact of the following factors: the rising cold period air temperature and declining of warm period precipitation affecting birds through both successive overgrowth of breeding and feeding habitats and the changes in ground-water table and soil moisture, timing of ice cover scale and duration of spring floods. Consequently, some of the protected territories are becoming irrelevant. Climatologists analysis of atmosphere global circulation models and the forecast of climate for the 21st century confirm the fact that protected species in SPA territories will face essential changes in communities due to the shift of populations in the north-eastern direction. It is noteworthy that in their breeding sites almost half of all SPA species are shallow watered and moist habitats-dependent. Due to climate warming these habitats are threatened with an increasing loss of water (and at the same time habitat characteristics). By contrast, merely 1/4 of species are inhabitants of terrestrial habitats. When breeding birds ranges shift under the impact of global climate change, not all bird species are threatened or get extinct in some definite territory (Viksne 2000; Nikiforov 2003; Viksne et al. 2005; alakeviius 2007). For example, in neighbouring Belarus (southward of Lithuania) twenty seven new breeding bird species were recorded during the past 100 years and 25 of them over the past 50 years (Nikiforov 2003). 69.2% of bird species have spread over the territory of Belarus from the south. 84% of the above species are closely connected to water bodies or wetlands. In addition, a rapid extension of the quantities and habitats of typical representatives of steppe avifauna occurred in 19701990. In neighbouring Latvia (northward of Lithuania) the nesting bird fauna (186 species) of Lake Engure and its surroundings has changed considerably over the last 50 years: 18 species have appeared as newcommers (among them 56% of southern, 6% of northern origin), 10 species have ceased nesting (among them 60% of northern, 10% of southern origin). These changes are explained by global warming (Viksne et al. 2005). Species with patchily distributed ranges due to intensive human activities or those with their breeding areas beyond the boundaries of the continuous species distribution range are known to suffer most. Quite often such species are included into national Red Data Books or into Red Data Book lists (alakeviius 2001). In Bhning-Gaese and Lemoines (2004) opinion, conservation efforts have to focus more on the high-temperature and low-precipitation part than on the low-precipitation part of the latitudinal gradient. Despite the proposition that range shifts have been observed in temperate regions with northward

shifts of northern range boundaries and no consistent trend of southern range boundaries (Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004) the results from three Baltic region countries indicate that southern range boundaries undergo shifts too (alakeviius 1999, 2001; Viksne 2000; Nikiforov 2003; Viksne et al. 2005). According to our review, with climate change progressing at the rate forecasted by climatologists in the course of this century, the response of SPA bird species to climate warming via changes of habitats and food resources will not be the same. As a result of the range shift in the north-eastern direction, 1/3 of populations of species protected in Lithuania will be the first to become threatened and are likely to retreat or go extinct (Table 1). They are Lithuanian breeding populations on western, south-western and southern peripheries of the entire range of species distribution. These results coincide with the forecast for Lithuania made by Huntley et al. (2007). Also, these authors forecast the extinction of eight more species (S. albifrons, C. niger, R. avosetta, L. svecica, A. paludicola, G. grus, A. pomarina, B. bubo) from Lithuanian SPA territories, although our model and forecast do not provide such evidence. National monitoring data of last decades indicate that populations of S. albifrons, C. niger and A. paludicola have recently been stable. But in this context it is necessary to note that the recently available evidence proves a significant decrease (26% of Lithuanian breeding population) of the lesser spotted eagle (A. pomarina) population over the past 26 years (Treinys et al. 2007). In case the forecast presented by Huntley et al. (2007) would be proved, more than 1/2 of protected SPA species are likely to get extinct in Lithuanian SPA territories. Here we must stress that Huntley et al. (2007) indicate that model performance is less suitable for species associated with restricted and patchily distributed habitats (in Lithuania there are five of the eight aforementioned species: S. albifrons, R. avosetta, L. svecica, A. paludicola, B. bubo). Of course, other species whose populations in Lithuania are on northern, north-eastern, eastern and north-western peripheries or in central part of ranges benefit from the situation and will not retreat in the process of climate warming. Here we must stress that the future survival of SPA species is aggravated as 30 species out of the 49 protected (61.2%) are long-distance migrants and 11 (22.4%) are residents. It is known that population state of long-distance migrants is markedly deteriorating under the effect of climate warming, and alterations in the composition of avifauna in the eastern Baltic region occur at the expense of long-distance migrants (Berthold 1990; Bairlein & Winkel 2001; Lemoine & Bhning-Gaese 2003; Chambers et al. 2005; alakeviius 2007). Meanwhile, resident species are

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more vulnerable to increasing local anthropogenic loading. Our investigation findings corroborate with the results of studies made by other authors. A retreat of some northern species from their southernmost sections of breeding range and extension of many southern species to the north of the breeding ranges are reported in several publications (Tomiaoj 1990, 2003; Thomas & Lennon 1999; Viksne 2000; Nikiforov 2003; Tomiaoj & Stawarczyk 2003; Viksne et al. 2005). Assessment of status of populations of bird species breeding in Lithuanian SPAs in the rapidly changing climate of the 21st century enables us to forecast future prospects for territories and validity of their designation. Our results showed that slightly over 60% of the territories ought to remain functioning provided that climate change further proceeds on the scale forecasted by climatologists. In eight SPA territories total extinction of species is anticipated. Different numbers of species will be lost in other Lithuanian SPA territories, and thus their future prospects will have to be revised. Management plans and measures will hardly help the species of the southern, south-western and western edges of the species ranges when their survival is threatened by global pressure on ecosystems and habitats. In this case, the predicted future decline in species will not be stopped. On the other hand, to ensure longer functioning of SPA territories in the face of changing climate, we need nature management measures primarily aimed at maintaining the quality of habitats supporting threatened species. These changes reveal new urgent practical problems at the science-policy interface. Different authors propose different ideas and solutions. Tomiaoj (2003) underlines that the reformulation of ideas and aims has recently become necessary, and two new working rules should be stressed: a) urgency criteria to be applied when selecting objects for protection; b) chances for success to be estimated from the pragmatic perspective. Protected areas should be: a) extended, b) composed of a variety of ecosystems and different-age stages, and c) interconnected through ecological corridors. To preserve viable populations of rare species, a wider application of the biosphere reserve model and a kind of a pan-continental network are necessary. Other authors indicate that the maintenance and enhancement of protected areas will not be sufficient to enable species to adjust their distribution in response to the changing environment (Huntley et al. 2007). In this case, the effective solution to the problem could be patches of habitats (as stepping stones) sufficient to enable species to breed and to facilitate the expansion of populations across the landscape (Hill et al. 2001;

Huntley et al. 2007). This solution is more effective in comparison with the establishment of corridors, which sometimes function as barriers to particular species (Huntley et al. 2007). Arujo et al. (2004) conclude that there are opportunities to minimize species extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species, especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions. Thereby we have to learn to forecast future conditions in protected areas and to create specific optimal conditions for species survival. Endeavour should be made to establish new protected areas in the northernmost or at least in the central part of the species distribution range. We can expect the SPA network to become more effective only by proposing a more flexible mechanism of its formation and designation so as to enable alterations in the SPA territories list if some of them lose their importance following the extinction of protected species or in case of a severe decline in their local populations in some locations. Also, relevant decisions should be made basing on scientific assessment rather than on inconsistent observations. A mechanism ought to be devised for the dissolution or removal of SPAs and their replacement by the newly designated territories in the event SPAs have lost their importance for the protection of definite bird species. In this connection, the new EU legislation regulating the mechanisms of altering the national SPA network need to be worked out. Without the creation of the relevant legal background to provide dynamic management of the SPA network its environmental protection efficiency will be insufficient. The duration of SPA importance (the period of time it stays important) is dependent on the number of species protected in the territory, i.e. a SPA designated for the protection of a larger number of species will remain important for a longer period of time even under pressure of environmental changes. Natural territories characterised by larger areas and complexity, where protection is secured for species of various ecosystems and different distribution ranges, are known to have greater and longer importance. We must find a new approach to threats faced by birds and a new vision of their protection, stressing the importance of the knowledge of the species-specific ecology of habitat selection, migratory status of breeding birds, populations location within the entire species range as well as the trends and scope of the regional climate change in designing effective measures and ways of bird protection. There is no doubt, that the existing gaps in the information on the climate change impact on bird distribution ranges, abundance and various stages of bird life cycle are still topical and require further research.

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acknowledgeMents
Special thanks are extended to Ms Irena alakeviien and Ms Laima Monkien, who translated and edited the text of manuscript. We are very greatful for anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the manuscript. We thank also Dr Vitas Staneviius for valuable recommendations in the paper draft preparation stage. Research was carried out by the Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University and it complies with current laws of the Republic of Lithuania.

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Ar gAli iuolAikins pAuki vAirovs ApsAugos strAtegijos bti efektyvios XXi Amiuje didjAnt globAlios klimAto kAitos poveikiui?
M. alakeviius, L. Raudonikis, G. Bartkeviien santrauka Straipsnis nagrinja pauki ri, saugom Pauki apsaugai svarbiose teritorijose (PAST), galim reakcij klimato kait XXI amiuje. Diskutuojama apie PAST efektyvum iuo metu egzistuojanioje toki teritorij iskyrimo sistemoje ir pabriamos su tuo susijusios problemos. Tyrim rezultatai rodo, kad arealams traukiantis iaurs areal ryt kryptimi 17 i 49 Lietuvos PAST saugom ri populiacij, perini ri areal vakar, pietvakari ir piet periferijose, bus paveikiamos pirmiausia ir gali inykti. Likusios 32 rys, kuri Lietuvoje perinios populiacijos yra ri areal iaurs, iaurs ryt, ryt, iaurs vakar periferijose ar arealo centrinje dalyje, klimatui ylant neturt inykti. Tiktina, kad per XXI ami 1/3 saugom ri i 72 Lietuvos PAST inyks. Huntley ir kt. (2007) Europos perini pauki klimatiniame atlase prognozuoja, kad Lietuvos PAST teritorijose turt inykti dar 8 rys. Ms taikytas modelis ios prognozs nepatvirtina. PAST perspektyvumo XXI amiuje analiz parod, kad visos saugomos i teritorij rys turt ilikti 41 teritorijoje i 72 egzistuojani. 4 teritorijose turt inykti iki 1/4 ri, 19 teritorij nuo 1/4 iki 3/4 ri ir 8 teritorijose turt inykti visos ten

Can Recent Strategies of Bird Conservation be Effective in the 21st Century?

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saugomos rys. Taigi daugiau kaip 60% PAST teritorij Lietuvoje yra perspektyvios XXI amiuje, jei klimato kaita vyks iuo metu prognozuojamais tempais. ie pokyiai kelia nauj praktini aplinkosaugini problem, ikylani mokslo ir politikos sandroje. Aplinkosauginiai tikslai, iuo metu formuluojami klimato stabilumo prielaidomis, turt bti keiiami naujomis veiksm taisyklmis, pritaikytomis prie besikeiiani aplinkos slyg. Siekdami sukurti efektyvias pauki apsaugos

priemones, turime surasti nauj bd, kad apsaugotume paukius nuo jiems kylani pavoj. Svarbu panaudoti turimas inias apie pauki ri biotopo pasirinkimo specifikum, perini pauki migracin status, populiacijos viet ries areale, taip pat ir regionins klimato kaitos mast bei kryptis. Received: 22 June 2009 Accepted: 18 August 2009