How to get bankable meteo data?

DLR solar resource assessment

Robert Pitz-Paal,
Norbert Geuder, Carsten Hoyer-Klick, Christoph Schillings

Solar resource assessment for solar power plants

Why solar resource assessment ? Characteristics of solar irradiation data DLR solar resource assessment: ground measurements satellite data How to get bankable meteo data? Summary

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Why is exact knowledge of the solar resource so important?

High impact of the annual irradiation
Annual electricity generation in GW 50 MW Parabolic Trough solar thermal power plant
Levelized Electricity Costs (LEC)

on the LEC

Irradiation is a crucial parameter for site selection and plant design and economics of plant

Mean system efficiency

Annual electricity generation

Solar field size (aperture) in 1000 m

Why solar resource assessment?

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Mean system efficiency and Levelized Electricity Costs in /kWh

Characteristics of solar irradiation data

What kind of irradiation data is needed? Type: DNI (Direct-Normal Irradiation) GHI (Global-Horizontal Irradiation)
DHI (Diffus-Horizontal Irradiation)
Source: ground measurements
satellite data
Properties of irradiation: spatial variability
inter annual variability
long-term drifts

Characteristics of solar irradiation data

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Ground measurements vs. satellite derived data

Ground measurements
Advantages
+ high accuracy (depending on sensors) + high time resolution

Satellite data
Advantages
+ spatial resolution + long-term data (more than 20 years) + effectively no failures + no soiling + no ground site necessary + low costs

Disadvantages
- high costs for installation and O&M - soiling of the sensors - sometimes sensor failure - no possibility to gain data of the past

Disadvantages
- lower time resolution - low accuracy in particular at high time

resolution

Characteristics of solar irradiation data

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Inter annual variability

Strong inter annual and regional variations
1999

deviation to mean
2000

kWh/ma

2001

Average of the direct normal irradiance from 1999-2003

2002

2003
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Characteristics of solar irradiation data

Long-term variability of solar irradiance

7 to 10 years of measurement to get long-term mean within 5%

If you have only one year of measured data, banks have to assume, that this it is here

Characteristics of solar irradiation data

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Time series of annual direct normal irradiance

Long-term tendency may exist and differs from site to site linear regression: +2.16 W/(m year)

Spain

linear regression: -0.93 W/(m year)

Australia
with stratospheric aerosol

Characteristics of solar irradiation data

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How to get bankable Meteo Data?

Quality checked ground measurements to gain highly accurate data Derivation of irradiation from satellite data to get

spatial distribution and long-term time series

Validation of the satellite data with accurate

ground data

Result: accurate hourly time series, irradiation maps and long-term annual mean

DLR solar resource assessment

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Instrumentation for unattended abroad sites:

Rotating Shadowband Pyranometer (RSP)
pyra
sh ad ow

nom

Sensor: Si photodiode
ba nd

eter sen sor

Advantages: + fairly acquisition costs + small maintenance costs + low susceptibility for soiling + low power supply Disadvantage:
diffus horizontal

- special correction for good accuracy

necessary
(established by DLR)

Global HorizontaI Irradiation (GHI) measurement

Ground measurements

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Precise sensors (also for calibration of RSP):

Thermal sensors: pyranometer and pyrheliometer, precise 2-axis tracking
DHI

GHI

DNI

Advantage: + high accuracy + separate GHI, DNI and DHI sensors

(cross-check through redundant measurements)

Disadvantages: - high acquisition and O&M costs - high susceptibility for soiling - high power supply
Ground measurements
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Satellite data: SOLEMI Solar Energy Mining

Meteosat Prime

Meteosat East

SOLEMI is a service for high resolution and high quality data Coverage: Meteosat Prime up to 22 years, Meteosat East 10 years (in 2008)
Satellite data
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Radiative Transfer in the Atmosphere

1400

Extraterrestrial
1200

Direct Normal Irradiation

(W/m)

O2 and CO2
1000

Ozone
800

Rayleigh
600

Water Vapor
400

Aerosol
200

Clouds
0

00:00

02:00

04:00

06:00

08:00

10:00

12:00

14:00

16:00

18:00

20:00

22:00

Hour of Day
Satellite data
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00:00

How two derive irradiance data from satellites

The Meteosat satellite is located in a geostationary orbit The satellite scans the earth line by line every half hour

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

The Meteosat satellite is located in a geostationary orbit The satellite scans the earth line by line every half hour The earth is scanned in the visible

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

The Meteosat satellite is located in a geostationary orbit The satellite scans the earth line by line every half hour The earth is scanned in the visible and infra red spectrum

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

The Meteosat satellite is located in a geostationary orbit The satellite scans the earth line by line every half hour The earth is scanned in the visible and infra red spectrum A cloud index is composed from the two channels

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation ozone

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation ozone water vapor

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation ozone water vapor aerosols

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation ozone water vapor aerosols The cloud index is added for cloud transmission

Satellite data

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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Atmospheric transmission is calculated from global data sets elevation ozone water vapor aerosols The cloud index is added for cloud transmission All components are cut out to the region of interest
Satellite data
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How two derive irradiance data from satellites

Finally the irradiance is calculated for every hour

Satellite data

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Example for hourly time series for Plataforma Solar de Almera (Spain)

1200 ground 1000 800 satellite

W/m

600 400 200 0 13 14 15 16 17 18

day in march, 2001

Validation of the data

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Comparing ground and satellite data: time scales

12:45 13:00 13:15 13:30 13:45 14:00 14:15

Hourly average Meteosat image Measurement

Ground measurements are typically pin point measurements which are temporally integrated
Hi-res satellite pixel in Europe

Satellite measurements are instantaneous spatial averages Hourly values are calculated from temporal and spatial averaging (cloud movement)
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Comparing ground and satellite data: sensor size

solar thermal power plant (200MW 2x2 km ground measurement instrument (2x2 cm)

satellite pixel ( 3x4 km)

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Comparison with ground measurements and accuracy

general difficulties: point versus area and time integrated versus area integrated

1200

1000

ground sate llite

800

W/m

600

400

200

DNI time serie for 1.11.2001, Almera Partially cloudy conditions, cumulus humilis

0 0 6 12 18 Slide 28 > Solar resource assessment at DLR 24

hour of day

Comparison with ground measurements and accuracy

general difficulties: point versus area and time integrated versus area integrated

1200

1000

ground sate llite

800

W/m

600

400

200

DNI time serie for 30.4.2000, Almera overcast conditions, strato cumulus

0 0 6 12 18 Slide 29 > Solar resource assessment at DLR 24

hour of day

Validation in Tabouk, Saudi Arabia

all-sky

clear-sky

All Sky
Validation of the data

Clear sky only

Validation results

RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) Decreasing deviation between ground and satellite derived data with increasing duration of the integration time

Bias Variing within different sites

Site Measurement Network Saudi Arabia Several Sites in Spain Morocco Algeria

bias +4.3% -6.4% to +0.7% -2.0% -4.8%

Validation of the data

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Monthly ground and satellite derived irradiation data

hourly monthly mean (DNI_ground) in Wh/m, Solar Village 2000

hourly monthly mean (DNI_satellite) in Wh/m, Solar Village 2000

Validation of the data

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Adjusting Ground and Satellite Data

Simple Method: Scaling with the Bias E.g. with a Bias of -5%, every value is multiplied with 1.05 + Very easy to apply Modification of frequency distribution at the extreme end a factor > 1 may produce unrealistic high values a factor < 1 may omit high values Suitable for average values

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Adjusting Ground and Satellite Data

Advanced Method: Error analysis and correction functions Analysis of the Deviations:
At clear sky? (e.g. due to incorrect atmospheric data)
During cloud situations? (e.g. incorrect cloud modelling)
Development of a correction function dependent e.g. on the cloud index.
7 6 5 Korrekturfaktor 4 3 2 1 0 -0.2 c(x)

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.2

Wolkenindex

Bias before

Correction

Bias after
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Summary

Ground measurements are accurate but expensive and in suitable regions mostly rare (especially DNI) New ground measurements do not deliver time series for the past
Satellite data offers spatial resolution and long-term time series of
more than 20 years into the past
Combination of ground and satellite date yields: irradiation maps, long term annual means and time series all with good accuracy Realistic long term meteo data helps to avoid risk surcharges of banks due to conservative assumptions and increase the financial viability of your project

Summary

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Thank you for your attention !

Acknowledgements Richard Meyer, Institute for Physics of the Atmosphere,

DLR Oberpfaffenhofen
Sina Lohmann, Institute for Physics of the atmosphere,
DLR Oberpfaffenhofen
Antonie Zelenka, MeteoSwiss, Zrich
Volker Quaschning, FHTW Berlin

Acknowledgements

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Satellite data and nearest neighbour stations

Satellite derived data fit better to a selected site than ground measurements from a site farther than 25 km away.

Validation of the data

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Derivation of the Cloud-Index from satellite images

VIS-channel
(0.5 0.9m) (10.5 12.5 m)

IR-channel

Original-image Meteosat-7

Reference-image

Derived cloud information (Cloud-Index)

Time series of direct normal irradiance

aerosol opt. thickness

Spain

linear regression: 2.16 W/(m year) 1.56 W/(m year)

Pinatubo El Chichon

aerosol optical thickness

with without stratospheric aerosol

with without stratospheric aerosol Pinatubo El Chichon

Australia

linear regression: - 0.93 W/(m year) - 1.22 W/(m year)

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