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Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes 1 month in 10 snapshots a review of global economic activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief explanation.
A publication of the Global Macro & Fixed Income Strategies team SYZ Asset Management - Tel. +41 (0)58 799 10 00 info@syzgroup.com Author: Adrien Pichoud This document is based on graphics the data of which were collected during February 2013.
Index
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. United States The start of a new adventure for the Fed United States An improvement in sight on the employment front Euro zone Germany ready to rebound. But not France Euro zone The three new budgetary dunces Japan Hope is reborn Australia Beware of the AUD! China The soft landing facilitated by an easing of credit Bonds The Italian elections revive the interest-rate tensions Exchange rates The CHF again becomes a barometer of euro-zone stress Exchange rates The pound sterling faces many headwinds
1800
1.50
2.00 1600 2.50 1400 3.00 1200 3.50 1000 4.00 800 4.50
600
5.00
400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 G O LD - (USD/O Z ) US T REAS.BENCHMARK BO ND 10 YR (DS) - RED. YIELD(R.H.SCALE) 2012
5.50
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
March 2013
55
200
50
45
-200
40
-400
35
-600
30 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 I SM EMPLO YMENT CO MPO SI T E NO N F ARM PAYRO LLS MoM CHG (3M MAV)(R. H.SCALE) 08 09 10 11 12
-800
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35 2006 EMU
2007
2008 G ER
2009 FRA
2010
2011
2012
2013
So urce: B lo o mb erg , SY Z A M
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
So ure: Euro pean C o m m is sio n
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
March 2013
45
30
60
30
55
20
50
10
45
40
-10
35
-20
30 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 AUS - PMI MANUF ACT URI NG (3M MAV) AUD/ USD YoY change (3M MAV)(R. H.SCALE) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-30
So urc e: B lo o m berg
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
March 2013
5. 50
5. 00
4. 50
4. 00
3. 50 O CT I T ALY SPAI N I RELAND Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream NO V DEC JAN F EB
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.65 2009
EUR /C H F
700
Spread co m po site IT A /SP A /IR E/P OR vs GER (Inverted R ight H and Scale)
1. 62 1. 24
1. 60 1. 22
1. 58 1. 20 1. 56
1. 18 1. 54
1. 52
1. 16
1. 14
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.