GM1,1BP

GM(1,1)1985201026
26
1995
20109%
5
BP
GDP
GM(1,1)
20112015BP

4GDP
SPSS
.

GM(1,1)
BP

2011
2012
2013
2014
88.403
96.616
105.59
115.4
88.037
88.974
87.741
87.974
94.2195 104.8865 117.1429 131.2383

2015
126.12
85.807
147.4613

BP
BP
2011GM(1,1)BP201188

GM(1,1) BP

20
3 GM1,1
BP

2
1
2

3
X (0) GM(1,1)
X (1) GM(1,1) X (0)
1
1
Z ( ) GM(1,1) X ( )

GM(1,1)

0 GM(1,1)
C GM(1,1)
P GM(1,1)
m BP
n BP
l BP
y
X 1
X 2
2

X 3 GDP
X 4

4
4.1.

GM(1,1)BP

4.2 GM ( 1,1)

Gray Model,GM

GM1N,1 N
N GM(1,1).
4.2.1 GM(1,1)
X

( 0)

= x ( 0 ) ( 1) , x ( 0 ) ( 2 ) , L x ( 0 ) ( n ) X ( 0)

(
Z ( ) = ( z ( ) ( 1) , z ( ) ( 2 ) , L

X ( 1) = x ( 1) ( 1) , x(1) ( 2 ) , L x (1) ( n )
1

( 0)

X ( 1) ( k ) = x ( 0 ) ( i ) ,
i =1

1)

z (1 ) ( n )

( k ) + az ( 1) ( k ) = b
X ( 0) ( k ) ,

z(

( k) = 0.5 (x) 1( )k

k = 1, 2, L n
k = 1, 2, L n, X ( 1) X ( 0) 1 AGO

+0.5( ) x(

k)
1 Z ( 1) X ( 1)

a = ( a, b )
T

 x( 0) ( 2 )
z (1) ( 2 ) 1
( 0)

( 1)

x ( 3)
z ( 3) 1
Y =
,B = M
M
M

x( 0) ( n )
z (1) ( n ) 1

( 0)

( k ) + az ( 1) ( k ) = b
)
1
a = ( BT B ) BT Y

( 0)

= x ( 0 ) ( 1) , x ( 0 ) ( 2 ) , L x ( 0 ) ( n )

X ( 1) ( k ) = x ( 0 ) ( i ) ,
i =1

k = 1, 2, L n, X ( 0) 1 AGO Z ( 1) X ( 1)

dx( 1)
+ ax( 1) =b
dt

x ( 0) ( k ) + az ( 1) ( k ) = b

B, Y , a
a = ( BT B ) BT Y
1

1)

dx (1)
+ ax (1) = b
dt
b
b

x ( 1) ( t ) = x ( 1) ( 0 ) e at +
a
a

( 0)
( 1)
2) GM ( 1,1) X ( k ) + az ( k ) = b

b
b

x (1) ( k + 1) = x ( 1) ( 0 ) e ak + ,
a
a

3 x

( 1)

k = 1, 2, L n

( 0 ) = x( 0 ) ( 1)
b
b

x (1) ( k + 1) = x ( 0) ( 1) e ak + ,
a
a

k = 1, 2,L n

4
(0)
x
( k + 1) = x(1) ( k + 1) x(1) ( k ) ,

k = 1, 2, L n

4.2.2
X

( 0)

= x ( 0 ) ( 1) , x ( 0 ) ( 2 ) , L x ( 0 ) ( n )

X ( 1) = x ( 1) ( 1) , x( 1) ( 2 ) , L x (1) ( n )
k

X ( 1) ( k ) = x( 0 ) ( i ) ,

k = 1, 2, L n

i =1

B Y
x( 0) ( 2 )
z (1) ( 2 ) 1
( 0)

(1)

x ( 3)
z ( 3) 1
Y =
,B = M
M
M

x( 0) ( n )
z (1) ( n ) 1

z(

1)

( k) = 0.5 (x) 1( )k

+0.5( ) x(

k)
1 Z ( 1) X ( 1)

1 T
a
T
a = = ( B B ) B Y
b

b
b

x (1) ( k + 1) = x ( 0) ( 1) e ak + ,
a
a

k = 1, 2,L n

(0)
x
( k + 1) = x(1) ( k + 1) x(1) ( k ) ,

k = 1, 2, L n

4.2.3
1

X ( 0) = x( 0 ) ( 1) , x( 0 ) ( 2 ) , L x( 0 ) ( n )

(0)
X (0) = ( x
( 1) , x(0) ( 2 ) ,L x(0) ( n ) )

(0)
( 0) = ( ( 1) , ( 2 ) , L ( n ) ) = x( 0 ) ( 1) x
( 1) , x(0 ) ( 2 ) x(0) ( 2 ) ,L x(0 ) ( n ) x(0) ( n )


( 1)
( 2)
( n)
= ( 0)
, ( 0)
,L , ( 0 )
x ( 1) x ( 2 )
x ( n)

1 k n k =

( k)

x( 0) ( k )

n
= { k } 1

k =

1 n
k
n k =1

2 1 1 k k k = 1, 2,L n
3 n <

2
X ( 0) , x (0) , X ( 0) x (0) ,
0 >0 , > 0
3.
X ( 0) x (0) ( 0)
x=

1 n ( 0)
x ( k) ,
n k =1

S12 =

1 n (0)
( x ( k ) x)2

n k =1

S22 =

1 n
( ( k ) )2
n k =1

X ( 0)

1 n
( k ) ,
n k =1

l) C = S 2 / S1 , C0 > 0 , C < C0 ,
;

2) p =P ( k ) - <0.6745S1 , p0 >0 p >p0 ,

.
.,
, : , C
p . , 0 , C0 , p0 ,
. 1, .

1

0.01
0.05
0.10
0.20

C0

p0

0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60

0.35
0.50
0.65
0.80

0.95
0.50
0.70
0.60

4.2.4 GM(1,1)
1985201026GM(1,1)
2
2
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

28.61 28.93 30.81 29.67 28.85 28.49 29.69 34.64

7
2003
40.69
2

4
2004
50.89
8

7
2005
55.12
7

3
2006
58.17
1

7
2007
62.6

7
2008
68.03
9

6
2009
77.10
5

8
2010

81.65

X ( 0) ={28.3 28.6 28.9 30.8 29.7 28.9 28.5 29.7 34.7 40.7 50.9 55.1 58.2 62.6 68.0 77.1 83.2}
MATLAB a = -0.08883,b=17.892

x (1) ( k + 1) = 229.732 e0.08883 k -201.417,

k = 1, 2, L n

1
GM(1,1)
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015


= 9.28%

= 0.9781

P = 1, C = 0.1167
1
x (1) ( k + 1) = 229.732 e0.08883 k -201.417,

k = 1, 2, L n

C = 0.1167 < 0.35

P = 1 > 0.95 (1)
1
MATLAB2
GM(1,1)
100

80

60

40

20
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2
3

3 GM1,1
2011
2012
2013
2014
88.403
96.616
105.59
115.4

2015
126.12

4.3 BP
4.3.1
1
GDP%%
/
%
8

2
4.3.2

4
4

GDP

1985
9016.03
105851
23.7
28.6
10.1
76682
92.9

1986
10275.1
107507
24.5
29.1
9.8
80850
93

1987
12058.6
109300
25.3
29.6
9.4
86632
93.2

1988
15042.8
111026
25.8
30.5
9.1
92997
93.2

1989
16992.3
112704
26.2
32.0
9.1
96934
93.1

1990
18667.8
114333
26.4
31.5
8.9
98703
92.8

1991
21781.4
115823
26.9
33.6
8.6
103783
93.2

18.578

19.708

21.028

22.404

22.753

22.697

23.693

4
4.3.3

MATLAB
5 BP
GM1,1

5
5 GM1,1 5

GDP

2011
464520
134790
51.359
43.562
3.9103
340500
87.092

2012
539110
135520
53.072
43.974
3.8068
364020
86.552

2013
625680
136250
54.843
44.391
3.7059
389170
86.015

2014
726160
136980
56.672
44.811
3.6078
416060
85.481

2015
842770
137710
58.562
45.235
3.5123
444800
84.951

2011
464520
134790
51.359
43.562
3.9103
340500
87.092

4.3.4

BP
S

Outi(1) = Ini(1) = x, i = 1, 2, L , m

 (2) n (1)
(1)
In j = wij Outi
i =1

Out (2) = f ( In(2) )

j
j

j = 1, 2, L , l

f ( x) Sigmoid
f ( x) = tanh( x)

yk = Out

(3)
k

= In

(3)
k

(2)
= w(2)
j Out j ,

k = 1, 2, L , n

j =1

m, n, l
m = 7, n = 1 l
l = m + n + a,

a [1,10]

l = 10
BP Levenberg-Marquardy
LM
LM

BP
MATLAB 2

l = 14
BP 3

3 BP

10

Performance is 5.64942e-007, Goal is 1e-005

Training-Blue Goal-Black

10

-5

10

2
3
5 Epochs

3 5 0.00001.
4
BP
90

80

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

BP

5 6

2011
88.037

6 BP
2012
2013
88.974
87.741

11

2014
87.974

2015
85.807

4.3.5

1 2
1 =

2 = 0.5*

1 n t2 t1

n i =1 t1

tt 2 tt1
tt 4 tt 3
+ 0.5*
tt1
tt 3

t1 26 t2 26 tt1 2009
tt 2 2009 tt 3 2010 tt 4
2010 .

1 = 0.58% 2 = 0.50

4.3.6
BP

-0.6830
0.3291
0.8066
-0.1848
0.0789
0.6110
-1.5140
0.7177
1.3544
-0.8459
-0.7856
-0.4676
1.1460
0.1848

0.4232
-0.0850
0.5861
0.9739
0.3654
-0.8445
-0.4735
0.2503
-0.8469
0.7942
0.1118
-0.9767
0.7638
-0.8039

-1.0322
0.7622
-0.3503
-0.3028
1.4896
1.0973
-0.3961
-1.1968
1.0028
-0.7571
-0.7233
0.5588
-0.5402
-1.1376

-0.9474
0.3872
-1.3866
0.6602
-1.1741
0.6770
-0.6431
0.3105
-0.4210
1.3698
-0.7129
-0.5331
0.6709
0.8995

-0.9967
1.2115
0.8462
1.3295
-0.0309
0.9350
-0.6584
-0.6014
-0.5962
-0.5807
-0.5043
-0.2125
-0.8576
-0.3553

-0.4981
0.4247
0.6046
-0.7256
0.2822
0.0704
-1.0749
-1.2645
0.1181
-0.0164
0.9510
1.2116
0.0296
0.8729

0.0713
1.1320
0.6746

0.5517
0.7939

0.6533
0.4562

-0.2913
-1.1882

-0.3844

-1.1301
1.0867

-1.2977
-0.1766

= GDP

14
12

14 7

BP

GDP

0.0170
0.1090
0.0602
0.0766
0.0704
0.0680
0.0534

4.4
1985-2010,
, , ,
, , 2011
2015,
4.4.1.
1.1
, 19852010 X 1 X 2
GDP X 3 X 4 2011

4.4.2
GDP

4.4.3
y = 0.159 X 1 + 12.946 X 2 + 0.184 X 3 + 568.756 X 4 21484.937
t ( 3.680 ) ( 3.645 ) ( 0.357 ) ( 8.000 ) ( 3.965 )
Sig ( 0.001) ( 0.001) ( 0.724 ) ( 0.00 ) ( 0.001)
SPSS0.982
4.4.4
spss20112015GDP
/7

13


2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

7 2011-2015

%
GDP
134645.78
51.1
36993.26
135119.87
52.8
42710.28
135549.13
54.5
49310.82
135933.56
56.3
56931.42
136273.15
58.1
65729.72

3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1

8
6-

2011
94.2195

8
2012
2013
104.8865 117.1429

2014
131.2383

2015
147.4613

6 2011-2015
4.4.5
1985-2010EXCEL
,=-
=-/9:

14

2006
5817.1
5708.391
108.7089
0.019044
2007
6260
6331.327
-71.3265
-0.01127
2008
6803.9
6983.207
-179.307
-0.02568
2009
7710.5
7389.445
321.0554
0.043448
2010
8165.4
8239.096
-73.6964
-0.00894
3
8.3%

4.5

1 2
3 GM1,1
,,
2 GM(1,1) 3

3
(
CDM )

5
1
BPGM(1,1)
20
1BP

, , .
MA TLAB BP
BP , , ,

2G M (1,l) , ,
, .
G M (1,l) ,

2
1)G M (1,l) , . ,
15

,
2)

6
[1] ,.IPACEmission..2004.
[2] ,,.BP[J]., 2007,
(02).
[3] ,,,. BPMATLAB[J].
,2009,(01).
[4] ,,,,,. MATLABBP
[J].,2008,(04).
[5] ,,. BP[J].
,2005,(01) .
[6] ,,. BP[J].
,1998,(04).
[7] ,. BP[J].,
2007,(10).
[8] . [M].:,2002.
[9] ,,. GM(1,1)[J]., 2003,
(08).
[10],.GM(1,1)[J]., 2001,
(01).
[11],.GM(1,1)[J].,
2002,(04).
[12],.GM(1,1)[J].,
2002,24(4):60-63.
[13],,.GM(1,1)[J].
,2011,23:39-46.
[14],. [J].
,2003,(02).
[15]...,2011.

7
1 GM(1,1)MATLAB
clear;clc
x0=open('shuju4.mat');
x0=(x0.t1)./100;
x0=x0(10:length(x0));
for i=1:length(x0)
x1(i)=sum(x0(1:i));
16

end
for i=2:length(x0)
b(i-1,1)=-0.5*(x1(i-1)+x1(i));
end
b(:,2)=ones(length(x0)-1,1);
y=(x0(2:length(x0)))';
a=inv(b'*b)*(b'*y);
t=0:length(x0)+4;
f1=(x0(1)-a(2)/a(1))*exp(-a(1)*t)+a(2)/a(1);
f0(1)=f1(1);
for i=2:length(f1)
f0(i)=f1(i)-f1(i-1);
end
d=abs(f0(1,1:length(x0))-x0);
w=d./x0;
%w
%nl=(min(d)+0.5*max(d))./(d+0.5*max(d));
%r=mean(nl);
%r
gs0=sum(x0(2:length(x0)))-((length(x0)-1)-0.5)*x0(1)+0.5*x0(length(x0));
gs1=sum(f0(2:length(x0)))-((length(x0)-1)-0.5)*f0(1)+0.5*f0(length(x0));
E=(1+abs(gs0)+abs(gs1))/(1+abs(gs0)+abs(gs1)+abs(gs0-gs1));
S1=std(x0);
S2=std(d);
C=S2/S1;
S0=0.6745*S1;
ei=abs(d-mean(d));
P=mean(ei<S0);
x=1995:1994+length(x0);
plot(x,x0,'b-',x,f0(1,1:length(x0)),'m-*')
legend('','')
title('GM(1,1)')
xlabel('')
ylabel('/')
figure
plot(x,w)
legend('')
title('GM(1,1)')
xlabel('')
ylabel('')

2 BPMATLAB
clear;clc
%p
pt
17


pt=open('shuju5.mat');
p=pt.p;
%t
t=pt.t;
%P_test
P_test=pt.P_test;
%t1
t1=pt.t1;
%
[pn,minp,maxp,tn,mint,maxt] = premnmx(p,t);
%
p2= tramnmx(P_test,minp,maxp);
%
net=newff(minmax(pn),[14,1],{'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
net.trainparam.show=50;
net.trainparam.mc=1.0;
net.trainparam.epochs=2000;
net.trainparam.goal=0.00001;
%
net=init(net);
%
[net,tr]=train(net,pn,tn);
%
PN=sim(net,p2);
%
[t2]= postmnmx(PN,mint,maxt);
%mse
E = t1 - t2(1,length(t1));
MSE=mse(E);
%
figure(1);
X1=1985:1984+length(t1);
X2=1985:1984+length(t2);
plot(X2,t2./100,'m-*',X1,t1./100,'b-');
legend('','')
title('BP')
xlabel('')
ylabel('/')

1980
1448.5
1917.772
1981
1439.9
1581.63
1982
1506.9
1850.888
18

-469.272
-141.73
-343.988

-0.2447
-0.08961
-0.18585

1983
1593.4
1741.242
1984
1724.5
1539.111
1985
1857.8
1530.607
1986
1970.8
1652.392
1987
2102.8
1747.043
1988
2240.4
1903.176
1989
2275.3
2202.867
1990
2269.7
2373.342
1991
2359.3
2491.302
1992
2449.2
2391.618
1993
2626.6
2452.993
1994
2831.5
2577.81
1995
2861.7
2798.738
1996
2893.4
2938.268
1997
3081.7
2973.582
1998
2967.3
3014.979
1999
2885.7
3149.008
2000
2849.7
3276.796
2001
2969.6
3463.131
2002
3464.8
3698.07
2003
4069.2
4162.71
2004
5089.8
4799.615
2005
5512.7
5218.967
4 BP

GDP

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

9016.0
4
10275.
2
12058.
6
15042.
8
16992.
3
18667.
8
21781.
5
26923.
5
35333.
9
48197.

10585
1
10750
7
10930
0
11102
6
11270
4
11433
3
11582
3
11717
1
11851
7
11985

23.7

-147.842
185.3887
327.1933
318.4082
355.7568
337.2235
72.43294
-103.642
-132.002
57.58184
173.6067
253.6905
62.96245
-44.8677
108.1184
-47.6788
-263.308
-427.096
-493.531
-233.27
-93.5096
290.1853
293.7333

%
28.671
6
29.136
1
29.638
3
30.514
6
32.063
9
31.553
2
33.685

24.5
25.3
25.8
26.2
26.4
26.9
27.5

34.755
5
33.723
2
33.569

28
28.5
19

-0.08491
0.120452
0.213767
0.192695
0.203634
0.17719
0.032881
-0.04367
-0.05299
0.024077
0.070773
0.098413
0.022497
-0.01527
0.03636
-0.01581
-0.08362
-0.13034
-0.14251
-0.06308
-0.02246
0.06046
0.056282

%
10.1
7668
92.9
18.578
2
9.8
8085
93
19.708
0
9.4
8663
93.2
21.028
2
9.1
9299
93.2
22.404
7
9.1
9693
93.1
22.753
4
8.9
9870
92.8
22.697
3
8.6
1037
93.2
23.693
83
7.9
1091
93.2
24.492
70
7.4
1159
92.9
26.266
93
6.9
1227
92.4
28.315

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

9
60793.
7
71176.
6
78973
84402.
3
89677.
1
99214.
6
10965
5
12033
3
13582
3
15987
8
18493
7
21631
4
26581
0
31404
5
34090
3
40120
2

0
12112
1
12238
9
12362
6
12476
1
12578
6
12674
3
12762
7
12845
3
12922
7
12998
8
13075
6
13144
8
13212
9
13280
2
13345
0
13409
1

5
32.862
7
32.772
4
34.173
9
36.231
8
37.672
7
39.020
4
40.455
6
41.467
5
41.233
7
40.381
5
40.510
6
40.938

29
30.5
31.9
33.4
34.8
36.2
37.7
39.1
40.5
41.8
43
43.9
44.9
45.7
46.6
49.68

20

6.6
6.2
5.7
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.7
5
4.9
4.8

41.891
5
41.822

4.5

43.425
3
43.142
1

4.2

4.3

4.032

37
1311
76
1351
92
1359
09
1361
84
1405
69
1455
31
1504
06
1594
31
1837
92
2134
56
2359
97
2586
76
2805
08
2914
48
3066
47
3249
39

92.1

28.617

92.2

28.934

91.8

30.817

91.7

29.673

92.1

28.857

91.4

28.497

90.1

29.696

90.3

34.648

91

40.692

90.8

50.898

90.6

55.127

90.4

58.171

89.9

62.6

88.6

68.039

88.3

77.105

87

81.65