CHAPTER 1 1.

0 Introduction Statistics is a branch of applied mathematics concerned with the collection and interpretation of quantitative data and the use of probability theory to estimate population parameters. It could be seen as the science of making effective use of numerical data relating to groups of individuals or experiments. A broaden definition is that it is a set of concepts, rules, and procedures that help us to organize numerical information in the form of tables, graphs, and charts; understand statistical techniques underlying decisions that affect our lives and well-being; and make informed decisions. Land transport or transportation is the movement of people and goods from one location to another on land. The field can be divided into infrastructure, vehicles and operations. Infrastructure consists of the fixed installations necessary for transport, and may be roads, railways, airways, waterways, canals and pipelines, and terminals such as airports, railway stations, bus stations, warehouses, trucking terminals and refueling depots (including fueling docks and fuel stations). Terminals may both be used for interchange of passengers and cargo, and for maintenance. Vehicles traveling on these networks include vehicles of appropriate types such as automobiles, bicycles, buses, trains and trucks people. Operations deal with the way the vehicles are operated, and the procedures set for this purpose including financing, legalities and policies. In the transport industry, operations and ownership of infrastructure can be either public or private, depending on the country and mode.

Passenger transport may be public, where operators provide scheduled services, or private. Freight transport has become focused on containerization, although bulk transport is used for large volumes of durable items. Transport plays an important part in economic growth and globalization, but has a deteriorating impact on the environment. While it is heavily subsidized by governments, good planning of transport is essential to make traffic flow, and restrain urban sprawl. In summary, I will define transport statistics as the collecting and analyzing of data obtained from transport activities of an organization to make comparisons and see patterns in research results the will yield proper inference or conclusions. 1.1 Overview of Land Transportation Land transport or is transport on roads of passengers or goods. A hybrid of road transport and ship transport is the historic horse-drawn boat. The first methods of road transport were horses, oxen or even humans carrying goods over dirt tracks that often followed game trails. As commerce increased, the tracks were often flattened or widened to accommodate the activities. Later, the travois, a frame used to drag loads, was developed. The wheel came still later, probably preceded by the use of logs as rollers. Early stone-paved roads were built in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley Civilization. The Persians later built a network of Royal Roads across their empire. With the advent of the Roman Empire, there was a need for armies to be able to travel quickly from one area to another, and the roads that existed were often muddy, which greatly
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delayed the movement of large masses of troops. To resolve this issue, the Romans built great roads. The Roman roads used deep roadbeds of crushed stone as an underlying layer to ensure that they kept dry, as the water would flow out from the crushed stone, instead of becoming mud in clay soils. During the Industrial Revolution, and because of the increased commerce that came with it, improved roadways became imperative. The problem was rain combined with dirt roads created commerce-miring mud. John Loudon McAdam (1756-1836) designed the first modern highways. He developed an inexpensive paving material of soil and stone aggregate (known as macadam), and he embanked roads a few feet higher than the surrounding terrain to cause water to drain away from the surface.

Modern roads Today roadways are principally asphalt or concrete. Both are based on McAdam's concept of stone aggregate in a binder, asphalt cement or Portland cement respectively. Asphalt is known as a flexible pavement, one which slowly will "flow" under the pounding of traffic. Concrete is a rigid pavement, which can take heavier loads but is more expensive and requires more carefully prepared subbase. So, generally, major roads are concrete and local roads are asphalt. Often concrete roads are covered with a thin layer of asphalt to create a wearing surface. Modern pavements are designed for heavier vehicle loads and faster speeds, requiring thicker slabs and deeper subbase. Subbase is the layer or successive layers of stone, gravel and sand supporting the pavement. It is needed to
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spread out the slab load bearing on the underlying soil and to conduct away any water getting under the slabs. Water will undermine a pavement over time, so much of pavement and pavement joint design are meant to minimize the amount of water getting and staying under the slabs. Shoulders are also an integral part of highway design. They are multipurpose; they can provide a margin of side clearance, a refuge for incapacitated vehicles, an emergency lane, and parking space. They also serve a design purpose, and that is to prevent water from percolating into the soil near the main pavement's edge. Shoulder pavement is designed to a lower standard than the pavement in the traveled way and won't hold up as well to traffic. (Which is why driving on the shoulder is generally prohibited.) Pavement technology is still evolving, albeit in not easily noticed increments. For instance, chemical additives in the pavement mix make the pavement more weather resistant, grooving and other surface treatments improve resistance to skidding and hydroplaning, and joint seals which were once tar are now made of low maintenance neoprene.

Toll roads Early toll roads were usually built by private companies under a government franchise. They typically paralleled or replaced routes already with some volume of commerce, hoping the improved road would divert enough traffic to make the enterprise profitable. Plank roads were particularly attractive as they greatly reduced rolling resistance and mitigated the problem of getting mired in mud. Another improvement, better grading to lessen the steepness of the worst stretches, allowed draft animals to haul heavier loads.

Toll roads peaked in the mid 19th century, and by the turn of the twentieth century most toll roads were taken over by state highway departments. The demise of this early toll road era was due to the rise of canals and railroads, which were more efficient (and thus cheaper) in moving freight over long distances. Roads wouldn't again be competitive with rails and barges until the first half of the 20th century when the internal combustion engine replaces draft animals as the source of motive power. With the development, mass production, and popular embrace of the automobile, faster and higher capacity roads were needed. In the 1920s limited access highways appeared. Their main characteristics were dual roadways with access points limited to (but not always) gradeseparated interchanges. Their dual roadways allowed high volumes of traffic, the need for no or few traffic lights along with relatively gentle grades and curves allowed higher speeds. Traffic control Nearly all roadways are built with devices meant to control traffic. Most notable to the motorist are those meant to communicate directly with the driver. Broadly, these fall into three categories: signs, signals or pavement markings. They help the driver navigate; they assign the right-of-way at intersections; they indicate laws such as speed limits and parking regulations; they advise of potential hazards; they indicate passing and no passing zones; and otherwise deliver information and to assure traffic is orderly and safe. 200 years ago these devices were signs, nearly all informal. In the late 19th century signals began to appear in the biggest cities at a few highly congested intersections. They were manually operated, and consisted of semaphores, flags or paddles, or in some cases colored electric lights, all
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modeled on railroad signals. In the 20th century signals were automated, at first with electromechanical devices and later with computers. Signals can be quite sophisticated: with vehicle sensors embedded in the pavement, the signal can control and choreograph the turning movements of heavy traffic in the most complex of intersections. In the 1920s traffic engineers learned how to coordinate signals along a thoroughfare to increase its speeds and volumes. In the 1980s, with computers, similar coordination of whole networks became possible. In the 1920s pavement markings were introduced. Initially they were used to indicate the roads centerline. Soon after they were coded with information to aid motorists in passing safely. Later, with multi-lane roads they were used to define lanes. Other uses, such as indicating permitted turning movements and pedestrian crossings soon followed. In the 20th century traffic control devices were standardized. Before then every locality decided on what its devices would look like and where they would be applied. This could be confusing, especially to traffic from outside the locality. In the United States standardization was first taken at the state level, and late in the century at the federal level. Each country has a Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) and there are efforts to blend them into a worldwide standard.

Besides signals signs and markings, other forms of traffic control are designed and built into the roadway. For instance, curbs and rumble strips can be used to keep traffic in a given lane and median barriers can prevent left turns and even U-turns. Means of transportation on land includes: Commercial Transport Buses Transport on roads can be roughly grouped into two categories: transportation of goods and transportation of people. In many countries licensing requirements and safety regulations ensure a separation of the two industries. The nature of road transportation of goods depends, apart from the degree of development of the local infrastructure, on the distance the goods are transported by road, the weight and volume of the individual shipment and the type of goods transported. For short distances and light, small shipments a van or pickup truck may be used. For large shipments even if less than a full truckload (Less than truckload) a truck is more appropriate.In some countries cargo is transported by road in horse-drawn carriages, donkey carts or other non-motorized mode. Delivery services are sometimes considered a separate category from cargo transport. In many places fast food is transported on roads by various types of vehicles. For inner city delivery of small packages and documents bike couriers are quite common. People (Passengers) are transported on roads either in individual cars or automobiles or in mass transit/public transport by bus / Coach (vehicle). Special modes of individual transport by road like rikshas or velotaxis may also be locally available. Trucking and hauling

Trucking companies or haulers/hauliers accept cargo for road transportation. Truck drivers operate either independently working directly for the client or through freight carriers or shipping agents. Some big companies (e.g. grocery store chains) operate their own internal trucking operations. In some advanced countries, many truckers own their truck (rig), and are known as owner-operators. Some road transportation is done on regular routes or for only one consignee per run, while others transport goods from many different loading stations/shippers to various consignees. On some long runs only cargo for one lag of the route (to) is known when the cargo is loaded. Truckers may have to wait at the destination for the return cargo (from). A Bill of Lading issued by the shipper provides the basic document for road freight. On cross-border transportation the trucker will present the cargo and documentation provided by the shipper to customs for inspection (for EC see also Schengen Agreement ). This also applies to shipments that are transported out of a Free port. To avoid accidents caused by fatigue, truckers have to keep to strict rules for drivetime and required rest periods. This is known as hours of service, or drivers working hours. Some companies use two drivers per truck to ensure uninterrupted transportation; with one driver resting or sleeping in a bunk in the back of the cab while the other is driving. .For transport of hazardous materials truckers need a licence, which usually requires them to pass an exam. They have to make sure they affix proper labels for the respective hazard(s) to their vehicle.

1.2 Statistics in Transportation The quality of transportation statistics varies significantly. Data quality refers to the following features: Comprehensiveness: An adequate range of statistics should be collected to allow various types of analysis. Data should be disaggregated by geographic area, mode and vehicle type and demographic group. Consistency: The range of statistics, their definitions and collection methodologies should be suitably consistent between different jurisdictions, modes and time periods. Frequency: Data should be collected regularly: quarterly, annually, or ever several years, depending on type. Accuracy: The methods used to collect statistics must be suitably accurate. Transparency: The methods used to collect statistics must be accessible for review. Availability: Statistics should be readily available to users. As much as possible, data sets should be available free on the Internet in spreadsheet or database format.

1.3 Significance of the Study The study is first significant to me the Researcher since it has really afforded me the ability to study wide and have a deepen and practicable knowledge of the study and applications of statistics. Also, the study is of importance to the entire staff of Ifesinachi Transport Limited simply because the backbone and aim of any business enterprise is to make profit/income. The study will help them to make assertions, predictions and go for an upgrade or over-hauling of staff or their business techniques. 1.4 Statement of the Problem The use of statistical models in every firm in obviously inevitable hence the study of statistics is imperative. The study focuses on the level of productivity of the different routes of Ifesinachi Transport Limited. The study gives an insight on the level of performance if progressing, stagnant or backsliding. 1.5 Scope and Limitation Ifesinachi Transport Limited was chosen as the case study for this research work simply because it is a leading company in the transportation industry. They provide comfortable travelling arrangements and movement of goods across the states of Nigeria. They have over 50 terminals spread among the states of the federation with their head office located in Onitsha, Anambra state. In order to eliminate certain operation bottlenecks and enhance service delivery to their numerous customers, Ifesinachi decided to move with the trend of technology advancement to eliminate the inefficiencies that hampered the delivery of quality service at their terminals. The manifestation of these
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inefficiencies, such as long queues, was attributed to issues arising from manual methods used in activities such as; issuing of tickets, seat allocation, ticket revalidation, accessing booking records, keeping track of vehicles and inventory, collection of fees from prospective travellers and administration of the companies finances. But this has been taken cared of with the introduction of the use of computing systems.

1.6 Aims and Objectives 1. 2. 3. To compare Ifesinachi Routes Statistical analysis of the routes Develop a regression model

1.7 Literature Review Authors and Scholars from different works of life have contributed to the theme of the study which is statistical analysis of transport routes. Some of which includes: Quincy OBrian (1977) described transport statistics as an aspect that plays a crucial role in the economy, bringing goods and services to customers and taking passengers to work or school (but also to shops or leisure activities). She also stated that public authorities should see transport statistics mainly from the economic angle such as mobility of goods was necessary to facilitate trade and economic growth, whereas mobility of citizens was a democratic right which did not receive enough attention. According to her, the above suggestion is reflected in the existing statistics on transport which was on the rise due to the diversification of land transport modes

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Rowe Komann (1983) in his authoritative article defined transport statistics as the data generated and analyzed to bring about effective planning in the service deliver of any transport organization. According to him, the problems or situation arising from the inefficient use of a particular route of a transport organization is as a result of poor or misleading planning. According to Sun Ji Hi (1988) he saw transport statistics as the number of persons (passengers) that is transported by a transport organization. According to him, transport statistics should deal with the passengers which could be obtained by knowing the number of buses that leaves the transport terminal. This definition is incomplete because statistics does not just deal with the collection of data alone, it is encompassed by its analysis. Kennedy Collins (1991) was transport statistics as also freight statistics. He defined Freight statistics as the information obtained from the movement of raw materials, of work in process, of finished goods from supplier to consumer and of new and used consumer products back to supplier. According to him freight statistics is increasingly intermodal and multimodal and uses local, regional, national and international systems. Indirectly, it is concerned with the organization and management of transport organizations. Paul Peterson (1994) in his publication saw road transport statistics as what can be inferred as a result of the analysis of all transport which runs exclusively or principally on roads. He expanciated by specifying road transport activities as all forms of thoroughfare ranging from a track or path to a motorway, as well as associated infrastructure (bridges, cuttings, tunnels, parking areas, footways, etc). However, it excludes ground activities in ports and airports which are directly associated with the functioning of air, maritime or
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inland waterway transport. Guided vehicles are included if they have the capacity to run on normal roads as well, e.g. guided buses can be counted as road, but not trams (as these are rail based, even if the rails run along a road). Nonmotorized modes, including walking and cycling, are also included here as, for the most part, they share the same infrastructure Donald Sharp (1996) defined transport statistics as the minimizations of the resource costs of a given transport system and the maximization of its resource benefits. Resources include infrastructure, land, vehicles, fuel and labour. Social cost-benefit analysis has expanded this list to include the resource values of time spent travelling, accidents caused and, in some countries, environmental impacts. The relief of congestion and unreliability is thus a significant element in the consideration of efficiency. This definition looks at the efficient use of transport which also includes the routes. Woodcock et al (1999) in a book on Effect of Urban Land Transport used Comparative Risk Assessment methods to estimate the health effects of alternative urban land transport scenarios for two settings-London, UK, and Delhi, India. For each setting, we compared a business-as-usual 2030 projection (without policies for reduction of greenhouse gases) with alternative scenarios-lower-carbon-emission motor vehicles, increased active travel, and a combination of the two. They developed separate models that linked transport scenarios with physical activity, air pollution, and risk of road traffic injury. In both cities, we noted that reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through an increase in active travel and less use of motor vehicles had larger health benefits per million population (7332 disability-adjusted lifeyears [DALYs] in London, and 12 516 in Delhi in 1 year) than from the increased use of lower-emission motor vehicles
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(160 DALYs in London, and 1696 in Delhi). However, combination of active travel and lower-emission motor vehicles would give the largest benefits (7439 DALYs in London, 12 995 in Delhi), notably from a reduction in the number of years of life lost from ischaemic heart disease (10-19% in London, 11-25% in Delhi). Although uncertainties remain, climate change mitigation in transport should benefit public health substantially. Policies to increase the acceptability, appeal, and safety of active urban travel, and discourage travel in private motor vehicles would provide larger health benefits than would policies that focus solely on lower-emission motor vehicles. According to Muri Shoyoye (2000) transport statistics is the strategic integration of different policy instruments to achieve improved performance of the transport system. The policy instrument will of course be derived from proper statistical analysis. He explained further that strategic integration can involve the coordinated planning of several routes so that each contributes more effectively. It can involve the combination of different measures under the dimension of tools, including infrastructure, management, regulation and pricing. It can also involve integration between transport and land-use policies. The research emphasis is on how best to achieve benefits from such integration, either by increasing the benefits or by overcoming barriers to the implementation of any measure. Hence, his write-up also addresses research into the wider issue of policy development through statistical planning. According to Litman (2001) in an article on transportation cost and benefit analysis developed a report framework for estimating and comparing the total costs of various forms of transportation. It includes an extensive review of previous cost studies. Twenty costs are defined and discussed, and existing estimates summarized. Cost estimates are provided
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for 11 travel modes under urban peak, urban off-peak, and rural travel conditions. This framework is used to compare costs per passenger mile for different modes. Implications of current cost distribution on economic efficiency, economic development, equity, and land use are explored. Case studies demonstrate how cost estimates can be applied to specific planning and policy decisions. Recommendations are provided for reforming current transport decision making. This document should be useful for transportation professionals, planners, economists, policy analysts and environmentalists. Ronny Caldwell (2002) wrote that transport statistics should be seen from the management and technology point of view. According to him, proper management of a transport organization will bring about high patronization and management of customers. The measures under this wideranging tool involve changing the way in which the road transport systems, particularly the infrastructure, are used. Proper management yield innovative ideas that will lead to the introduction of technology such as computerized ways of managing customers through quality services. Mintsis (2003) in his write-up on Application of GPS in land transportation system was of the view that the global positioning system (GPS) allows the accurate positioning of an object using satellite signals. There are a lot of applications of this technology in many scientific fields all over the world. In recent years, the rapid increase in the development of the geographic information system technology (GIS) has led to the development of GPS/GIS applications. Therefore, the geometric and geographic information obtained by the use of GPS can be introduced to GIS database and thus thematic maps can be produced. In the framework of this paper, a short overview of applications

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in the area of transportation in Greece and abroad is presented. Emphasis is placed on an ongoing application in railway mapping, through the presentation of its pilot phase in Greece. According to Edwin Collins (2005) he defined transport statistics as the statistical analysis of transport use in an organization. It also encompasses every traffic details. Alongside traffic details, it (vehicle movements) and transport as such (movements of people and goods), the analysis also considers infrastructure, resources, transport as a separate sector of the economy, safety, and the impact on energy consumption and the environment. According to Ogunbodede E.F (2006) in his paper on Urban Road Transportation in Nigeria From 1960 To 2006: Problems, Prospects And Challenges he suggested that the construction of more motor-able roads within cities in order to increase the network; encourage increased public and private participation in the provision of transport services within cities and intercities transport system. The adoption of motorcycle as public mode of transportation in cities should be institutionalized since the users are constrained to use this means of transportation in the absence of alternative. However, policies guiding the regulations and use of this mode should be formulated and monitored so that its use would not impact negatively on the commuters' mobility rights and lives. Similarly, government should provide enabling environment that would guaranty efficient and adequate movement of vehicles in cities.

Litman (2006) in a write-up on efficient vehicles versus efficient transportation compares four potential transportation energy conservation strategies using a comprehensive evaluation framework that takes into
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account how each strategy affects annual vehicle travel, and therefore, mileage-related impacts such as traffic congestion, road and parking facility costs and crash risk. Mileage-related impacts tend to be large in magnitude compared with energy conservation benefits, so even small changes in total vehicle travel can have a large impact on net benefits. Fuel efficiency standards and some alternative fuels cause vehicle travel to increase. Higher fuel taxes cause a combination of increased vehicle fuel economy and reduced mileage. Mobility management strategies cause relatively large mileage reductions and so provide the greatest mileage-related benefits. Conventional evaluation practices often overlook mileage-related impacts and so tend to overvalue strategies that increase vehicle fuel efficiency and undervalue mobility management strategies.

Roberts et al (2007) in their article on Energy and transport examined the links between fossil-fuel-based transportation, greenhouse-gas emissions, and health. Transport-related carbon emissions are rising and there is increasing consensus that the growth in motorized land-vehicles and aviation is incompatible with averting serious climate change. The energy intensity of land transport correlates with its adverse health effects. Adverse health effects occur through climate change, road-traffic injuries, physical inactivity, urban air pollution, energy-related conflict, and environmental degradation. For the world's poor people, walking is the main mode of transport, but such populations often experience the most from the harms of energyintensive transport. New energy sources and improvements in vehicle design and in information technology are necessary but not sufficient to reduce transport-related carbon emissions without accompanying behavioural change. By contrast, active transport has the potential to improve health and equity, and reduce emissions. Cities
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require safe and pleasant environments for active transport with destinations in easy reach and, for longer journeys, public transport that is powered by renewable energy, thus providing high levels of accessibility without car use. Much investment in major road projects does not meet the transport needs of poor people, especially women whose trips are primarily local and off road. Sustainable development is better promoted through improving walking and cycling infrastructures, increasing access to cycles, and investment in transport services for essential needs. Our model of London shows how increased active transport could help achieve substantial reductions in emissions by 2030 while improving population health. There exists the potential for a global contraction and convergence in use of fossil-fuel energy for transport to benefit health and achieve sustainability. According to McNally and Kulkarni (2008) in their book on assessment of influence of land-use transportation system on travel behavior applied an empirical assessment of the interaction between the land use-transportation system and travel behavior is presented. A methodology for identifying a range of land usetransportation systems by a clustering technique with network and land use inputs was developed. Twenty neighborhoods from Orange County, California, were considered in this process. Three groups, or themes, were found to best represent the neighborhoods in the sample area: one each associated with the conventional definition of traditional and neo-traditional neighborhood design (TND) and planned unit development (PUD) neighborhoods and one representing neighborhoods that blend characteristics of TND and PUD. Conventional measures of individual travel behavior were compared with an analysis of variance between the themes to identify significant differences, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics. Research results include the development of (a) a systematic
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methodology to identify a more explicit land use transportation dimension, (b) an estimate of the potential effectiveness of design-oriented solutions to reduce automobile congestion by using the developed themes, and (c) a preliminary assessment of the extent to which development themes can be used to improve the current modeling framework. Adil and Vahit (2008) in their book on the Applications of activity-based costing in land transportation company stated that although there are many studies in the literature that explain modern costing approaches including activity-based costing (ABC), the number of studies that present real life applications is very few. This is especially true for logistics and transportation applications. One of the main difficulties in land transportation companies is to determine and evaluate true cost of their operations and services. If used and implemented properly, ABC can be very helpful for transportation companies to determine cost of their operations with higher correctness. In this paper, an application of ABC to a land transportation company that is located in Turkey is presented in detail. In order to improve the effectiveness of the ABC an integrated approach that combines ABC with business process modeling and analytical hierarchy approach is proposed. It is figured out that the proposed approach is quite effective in costing services of the land transportation company compared to the existing traditional costing system which is in use. Wier et al (2009) in a journal on An area-level model of vehiclepedestrian injury collisions with implications for land use and transportation planning noted that theres growing awareness among urban planning, public health, and transportation professionals that design decisions and investments that promote walking can be beneficial for human and ecological health. Planners need practical tools to consider the impact
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of development on pedestrian safety, a key requirement for the promotion of walking. Simple bivariate models have been used to predict changes in vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions based on changes in traffic volume. They described the development of a multivariate, area-level regression model of vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions based on environmental and population data in 176 San Francisco, California census tracts. Predictor variables examined included street, land use, and population characteristics, including commute behaviors. The final model explained approximately 72% of the systematic variation in censustract vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions and included measures of traffic volume, arterial streets without transit, land area, proportion of land area zoned for neighborhood commercial and residential-neighborhood commercial uses, employee and resident populations, proportion of people living in poverty and proportion aged 65 and older. They have begun to apply this model to predict area-level change in vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions associated with land use development and transportation planning decisions. Macnab et al (2010) Vibration and noise in pediatric emergency transport vehicles: a potential cause of morbidity stated that noise and vibration are stressors that may adversely affect the well-being of infants and children being transported between facilities. Although the problem has been recognized, little has been done to rectify the situation. They stated a hypothesis that noise levels in transport incubators during use in transport vehicles exceed the recommended standards, and that vibration levels exceed those that are "very uncomfortable" for healthy adults. They measured noise and vibration (n/v) levels inside and outside a neonatal transport incubator in seven transport vehicles (land, air, and water), and calculated maximum and average, weighted and unweighted levels. They observed that the maximum and average unweighted noise levels in all but
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one vehicle were over 99 dB. The incubator amplified noise at the lower frequencies (The Canadian Standards Association 1992 recommendation is that the noise level in transport incubators not exceed 60 dBA). The maximum vibration levels ranged from 0.86 m.S-2 to 2.35 m.S-2, and the average levels ranged from 0.33 m.S-2 to 1.46 m.S-2. (Vibration in excess of 1.5 is considered "very uncomfortable," and in excess of 2.0 is "extremely uncomfortable" for healthy adults.) They concluded that noise and vibration levels inside transport incubators in our most-commonly used transport vehicles often exceed the recommended limits. For neurologically immature and/or physiologically compromised infants and children, current levels of n/v in transport vehicles are too high, and could affect patient morbidity. These n/v levels require further study, and modification of equipment, primarily the incubators, is overdue.

CHAPTER TWO 2.0 Method of Data Collection

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The method of data collection for this research work is the method of registration. It is a situation whereby the data are collected and stored in system as soon as they occur or immediately after occurrence by a Cashier. It can be futherly grouped as an unpublished data since a creditable level of confidentiality is required. 2.1 Data Collected The nature of the data collected is the number of small buses (hiace/humma) summed-up monthly that leaves the Lagos terminal of Ifesinachi transport Limited at their corporate office at 2/4 Ikorodu Rd, Jibowu Yaba, Lagos State to their various routes. i.e Abakaliki located at No. 5, Ogoja Road, Abakaliki, Abuja at Plot 904 Cadastral Zone Uthako District, Afikpo at 25, Eke Market Road, Nsukka at 2A, Enugu Road, Jos at 3, Old Railway Line, Aba at 15, Milverton Road, Makurdi at 11, Kashim Ibrahim Road, by West end round about, Enugu at 12, Okpara Avenue, Near Ogbete Main Market, Owerri at 14, Douglas Road and Port-Harcourt at 114, Ikwerre Road, for the year 2011.

CHAPTER THREE
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Data Analysis The table below shows the number of fourteen (14) seater buses that leaves the Lagos terminal to other terminals monthly. Blocks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 X1 34 44 38 37 36 30 32 36 38 34 42 45 X2 37 46 38 38 37 31 32 40 38 36 44 47 X3 39 43 39 39 37 30 30 40 39 35 41 44 X4 47 45 37 38 39 30 31 38 40 40 43 46 X5 28 39 27 30 28 22 23 30 34 32 37 40 X6 38 43 38 38 36 30 34 35 40 39 41 44 X7 27 40 26 34 29 25 21 31 30 31 38 41 X8 45 42 39 35 38 31 34 41 36 38 45 43 X9 48 44 39 35 37 32 33 33 36 39 44 45 X10 47 43 37 36 38 30 32 34 37 38 45 44

Where the xs represents the routes. Such that X1 = Makurdi X2 = Afikpo X3 = Owerri X4 = Abuja X5 = Abakaliki X6 = Port Harcourt X7 = Jos X8 = Nsukka X9 = Enugu X10 = Aba

3.1

Comparative Study of the Routes.

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The Friedman (Fr) test is employed for this test. The Friedman (Fr) test The Freidman test is performed for k treatments are identical. The Friedman test is a non-parametric test for analyzing randomized complete block designs. It is an extension of the sign test when there may be more than two treatments. The Friedman test assumes that there are k experimental treatments (k 2). The observations are arranged in b blocks, that is

Block 1 2 3 ... b

Treatment 1 2 ... k X11 X12 ... X1k X21 X22 ... X2k X31 X32 ... X3k ... ... ... ... Xb1 Xb2 ... Xbk

Let R(Xij) be the rank assigned to Xij within block i (i.e., ranks within a given row). Average ranks are used in the case of ties. The ranks are summed to obtain
b

Rj = R(Xij)
i=1

Then the Freidmans test is given as H0: treatments have identical effects H1: at least one treatment is different from one other treatment

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Test Statistics (Fr) = n<40 = n>40

12 Rj2 - 3b(k+1) bk(k+1)

Frtab

12 Rj2 - 3b(k+1) bk(k+1)

2,(k-1)

If ties exist, then we resolve it using the test statistic Fr* = Fr 1 - tei nk(k2-1) ~ 2,(k-1)

The significant level is given by and the conclusion favours H0 whenever Frtab or 2,(k-1) is greater than their respective calculated value. Hypothesis: H0 : t1= t2= t3=.= t10 H1 : tis are not equal for at least one.

Table of Ranks. Blocks X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Rjs

3 7.5 6 6 3.5 5

4 10 6 8 6 8. 5 6 6 6 8. 5 6.5 6. 5 3 5 5 7. 5 7.5 10 65 86

6 5 9 10 6 5 3 8. 5 8 4 3. 5 5 73

8.5 9 3.5 8 10 5 4 7 9.5 10 6

2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1

5 5 6 8 3.5 5 9.5 5 9.5 8.5 3.5

1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2

7 3 9 3.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 10 3.5 6.5 9.5

10 7.5 9 3.5 6 10 8 3 3.5 8.5 7.5

8.5 5 3.5 5 8.5 5 6 4 5 6.5 9.5 5 71. 5

9 1 89.5 17

5 2 88.5 19

3 7.5 81.5 84

Test statistic Fr* =

Fr 1-

tei nk(k2-1)

Numerator Fr = 12 Rj2 - 3b(k+1) bk(k+1) 3*12*11

Fr = 12 * 52253 12*10*11

Fr = 475.0273 396 Fr = 79.0273 Denominator

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1-

tei = bk(k2-1)

1 -

342 12*10*99

= 0.9712 Fr* = 79.0273 0.9712 Fr* = 81.3708 Decision Rule: Reject H0 if 2(k-1), < Fr* and accept if otherwise 2(k-1), = 29,0.05 = 16.919 29,0.95 = 3.325 29,0.01 = 21.666 29,0.99 = 2.088 29,0.95 = 27.877 Conclusion: Since at any -level 2(k-1), < Fr*, we reject H0 and conclude that the routes are of different performance or productive levels. 3.2 Multiple Comparism Test Multiple comparisons If the null hypothesis of no difference between treatments is rejected, then it is again possible to identify which pairs of treatments differ by calculating a least significant difference. Treatments i and j are significantly different at the 5% significance level if the difference between the sum of their ranks is more than the least significant difference (i.e. the following inequality is true): . (i)
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Where t is the value from the t distribution for a significance level and (b - 1)(k - 1) degrees of freedom. Test:
k b

rij2 = 4587
J=1i=1

It is obvious that from the sum of ranks, routes X5 and X7, the equation in (i) above is true. The right hand side of equation is evaluated below.

t,(b-1)(k-1) = t0.05,(11)(9) = 1.98 1.98 * 2((12*4587) -52253) (12-1)(10-1) /R1-R2/ = 21 R5/ = 48 /R1-R6/ = 23.5 19 /R1-R10/ = 6.5 69 . . . /R7-R10/ = 52.5 /R1-R3/ = 8 /R1-R7/ = 46 /R2-R3/ = 13 . . . /R8-R9/ = 3.5 /R1-R4/ = 24.5 /R1/R1-R8/ = 16.5 /R1-R9/ = /R2-R4/ = 3.5 . . . /R8-R10/ = 10 /R2-R5/ =

. . . /R9-R10/ = 12.5

At 5%, we can conclude that routes 1,5 and 7 are less productive compared to the other routes. But at 0.1%, the RHS of the equation gives 25.455 (3.39*7.5089) which implies that routes 5 and 7 are the most less productive routes.

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3.2 Regression Study on the Routes Overview of Linear Regression In statistics, linear regression is an approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar variable y and one or more variables denoted X. In linear regression, models of the unknown parameters are estimated from the data using linear functions. Such models are called linear models. Most commonly, linear regression refers to a model in which the conditional mean of y given the value of X is an affine function of X. Less commonly, linear regression could refer to a model in which the median, or some other quantile of the conditional distribution of y given X is expressed as a linear function of X. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on the conditional probability distribution of y given X, rather than on the joint probability distribution of y and X, which is the domain of multivariate analysis. Linear regression was the first type of regression analysis to be studied rigorously, and to be used extensively in practical applications. This is because models which depend linearly on their unknown parameters are easier to fit than models which are non-linearly related to their parameters and because the statistical properties of the resulting estimators are easier to determine. Linear regression has many practical uses. Most applications of linear regression fall into one of the following two broad categories: If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear regression can be used to fit a predictive model to an observed data set of y and X values. After developing such a model, if an additional value of X is then given without its accompanying value of y,
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the fitted model can be used to make a prediction of the value of y. Given a variable y and a number of variables X1, ..., Xp that may be related to y, then linear regression analysis can be applied to quantify the strength of the relationship between y and the Xj, to assess which Xj may have no relationship with y at all, and to identify which subsets of the Xj contain redundant information about y, thus once one of them is known, the others are no longer informative. Linear regression models are often fitted using the least squares approach, but they may also be fitted in other ways, such as by minimizing the lack of fit in some other norm, or by minimizing a penalized version of the least squares loss function as in ridge regression. Conversely, the least squares approach can be used to fit models that are not linear models. Thus, while the terms least squares and linear model are closely linked, they are not synonymous. Let Y = the mean over each block (month) and X = the blocks/months. X Y Ja n 39 Fe b 42. 9 Ma Ap r r 35. 36 8 Ma y 35. 5 Jun Jul Au g 29. 30 35. 1 8 Se p 36. 8 Oc No t v 36. 42 3 De c 43. 9

X 0

Y 39

x -5.5

y 2.07

x2 30.2 5 20.2 5

xy 11.3 9 26.8 7

Trend(T Error( ) ) 35.87 3.13

42.9

-4.5

5.97

36.06

6.84

30

2 3 4 5 6 7

35.8 36 35.5 29.1 30 35.8

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5

1.13 0.93 1.43 7.83 6.93 1.13 0.13 -.63 5.07 6.97

12.2 5 6.25 2.25 0.25 0.25 2.25

3.96 2.33 2.15 3.92

36.26 36.45 36.64 36.83

-0.46 -0.45 -1.14 -7.73 -7.03 -1.42

-3.47 37.07 37.22 1.69 5 -0.33 37.41 -2.21 37.60 22.8 2 38.3 4 37.797 37.989

8 9 10 11

36.8 36.3 42 43.9

2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

6.25 12.2 5 20.2 5 30.2 5

-0.61 -1.3 4.20 5.91

Where y = Yi , x = Xi N N y = Y - y , x = X - x y = (xy)x (x2) Y 36.93 = (27.555)(x 5.5) (143) Y = 0.1927x + 35.87 Error() = Y T

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 i = -0.06 Adjusted trend equation is given by Y = 0.1927x + 35.81 The trend line graph for the period is given below

Trend Line Graph

38.5 38 37.5 37 36.5 36 35.5 35 34.5
ja n fe b m ar ap r m ay se p oc t no v de c ju l au g ju n

Avg. Number of Buses

months

The above trend line graph is a positive trend line graph since Y increases as X increases.

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CHAPTER FOUR SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION From the analysis in chapter three, it was shown that the routes Lagos to Afikpo, Lagos to Abakaliki and partially Lagos to Makurdi are less productive compared to the other routes. This verdict shows how imperative the study of statistics is in analyzing the activities of any firm or organization. The study also showed that theres a general improvement in the companys performance as depicted by the positive trend line developed. In conclusion, the probable factors that may have lead to the less performance of the Afikpo and Abakaliki routes from Lagos includes the following:
1. There might be few people who are indigenes of Afikpo

and Abakaliki who reside in Lagos. 2. The level of commercial activities in both areas may be minimal compared to the other routes. 3. The roads of the routes from Lagos to Afikpo and Abakaliki may be bad, rough or not tarred. 4. Probably, the level of security of the routes may not be reliable. The transport firm should carry out proper feasibility study on the population of each state that resides in Lagos so as
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to know routes that should be established. Moreso, they should work with the state government of both states to proffer counter measures to the reason for their failing as stated above.

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