APPENDIX A

EXAMPLES

A-7 Multiple ECM With Metered Baseline Data Option C

Situation An energy efficiency project was implemented in a high school in northern United States. It involved ten ECMs spanning lighting, HVAC, pool heating, operator training and occupant-awareness campaigns. The objectives of the project were to reduce energy costs. Factors Affecting M&V Design The owner wished to record annual cost avoidance relative to the conditions and energy usage rate of 2005 as the baseline. The school contained a pool and cafeteria. The school is in use year round, though it closes for a total of 5 weeks a year between sessions. The community uses the building most evenings. The buildings energy requirement is significantly affected by ambient temperature. Temperature data can be easily obtained from a nearby government weather office. No other significant energy-governing variable could be quantified. Only administration offices have mechanical air-conditioning equipment, which operates for 3 months of the year. Expected annual savings on the gas meter are 2,800 mcf, and 380,000 kWh on the main electricity meter. M&V Plan An M&V Plan was developed showing that IPMVP Volume I, EVO 10000 1:2009, Option C was to be used for savings determination because total facility energy cost was the focus. Option C was also chosen because many ECMs were involved, some of which could not be directly measured. Since savings are to be reported as cost avoidance, i.e. under reporting period conditions, Equation 1b) will be used. An outline of key elements in the M&V Plan is shown below. Details, data and analysis are shown on the EVO subscribers website (www.evo-world.org). The measurement boundary of this savings determination was defined as: o o o An electricity account, including demand, serving the main building, An auxiliary electrical account, without demand, serving lighting in the field house, A natural gas account for the main building.

The 2005 baseline conditions were recorded, including a strategy for the engineering department to easily capture information about future changes. The baseline periods energy data and weather data were recorded and analyzed by simple linear regression of monthly energy use and energy demand against degree days. Degreeday data was with the base temperature, which yielded the best R2 from a number of regression analyses performed over a range of plausible base temperatures. Preliminary analysis found clear correlations with weather for winter gas use and winter electricity consumption on the main meter. Analysis also showed that there is no significant weather correlation with electric demand, summer gas or electricity use. It was decided that regression would only be performed on billing periods with more than 50 heating degree days (HDD). It was also decided that for reporting periods with 50 or fewer HDDs, adjustedbaseline values would be derived directly from the corresponding baseline month, adjusted solely for the number of days in the period.

The energy/HDD relationships were derived for the heating season on all three accounts as shown in Table A-7-1, along with key regression statistics and coefficients where significant relationships were found.
Appendix A Examples

Table A-7-1 Regression Analysis

Gas

Units Mcf Number of months with 8 8 more than 50 HDD o HDD Base 60 F 62oF Regression Statistics: R2 0.93 0.81 Standard Error of the 91 15,933 estimate t statistic of the HDD 8.7 5.0 coefficient Assessment of Good OK Regression Analysis Regression Coefficients (where accepted): Intercept 446.73 102,425 HDD coefficient 1.9788 179.3916

Electricity Main Building Consumption Demand kWh kW 8 62 F 0.51

o

Field House Consumption kWh 9 68oF 0.29

2.5 Poor

1.7 No good

The regression statistics for the gas consumption and main electricity consumption show acceptable correlation with HDD as indicated by the high R2, and the HDD t-statistics being well above the critical IPMVP Table B-1 value of 1.89 for 8 data points and 90% confidence. These observations are logical since the primary use of gas is for building heating. There is also a significant amount of electric heat in the main building. The field house account showed a poor t-statistic and R2. The building has no installed heating but must be lit longer in months of less daylight, which are also colder months. Monthly electricity use could be expected to follow a reasonably regular annual pattern related to daylight hours and occupancy, not driven by ambient temperature. Therefore the minimal correlation of this meter with HDD is ignored, and there will be no weather adjustments made to it. Instead, each months savings report will take its baseline energy from the corresponding baseline months consumption, adjusting for the number of days in the reporting period. The main electrical-demand meter showed a poor correlation with the coldest days weather. Therefore each months savings report will take its baseline demand from the corresponding baseline months actual demand, without adjustment. The long term impact on savings reports of these regression statistics was analyzed. The relative precision in winter savings reports will be less than 10% for gas and less than 20% for the main electricity account. The expected savings will be statistically significant for winter months since they will be more than twice the standard error of the baseline formulae (see criterion in Appendix B-1.2). The school officials felt comfortable with this expected quantified precision, and with possible unquantifiable errors related to simply adjusting for metering period lengths in months with 50 or fewer HDD. The utility rates to be used in valuing savings will be the then current full-price schedule appropriate for each account.

Results The reporting-period data for the first year was taken directly from utility bills without adjustment, and from government weather reports. This data and the calculations for the savings in energy and demand units, using Equation 1b), are shown on EVOs website.

Appendix A Examples

Each months current utility rate schedule was applied to each accounts adjusted-baseline energy and reporting-period energy to compute savings. Since the gas rate changed in month 9 and the electric rate changed in month 7, two different price schedules were used for each commodity during the 12-month savings report. These computations are also detailed on the EVO website.

Appendix A Examples