Daily Technical Report

March 15, 2013

Sensex (19570) / NIFTY (5909)

Yesterday, indices opened with a neutral bias as indicated by the SGX Nifty. Subsequently, we observed immense selling pressure in our market, which resulted in sharp fall of nearly a percent. However, indices managed to recover from days low to eventually end the session well inside the positive territory. The Realty, Banking, Capital Goods and Oil & Gas counters dominated yesterdays intraday rally; whereas Consumer Durables was the only sector that remained under pressure throughout the session. The advance to decline ratio was marginally in favor of declining counters (A=1425D=1443) (Sourcewww.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The 20-day EMA and the 20-week EMA are placed at 19408 / 5868 and 19257 / 5833 levels, respectively. The weekly chart exhibits a Bullish Engulfing pattern but the monthly chart exhibits a Bearish Engulfing pattern. The daily ADX (14) indicator and the weekly Stochastic momentum oscillator is now signaling a positive crossover. The level of the weekly RSI momentum oscillator has now bounced back sharply to 58.20 after dropping below the 50 mark. Indices have closed above the Downward Sloping Trend Line, drawn by joining two significant highs of 21109 / 6339 (high of November 05, 2010 weekly candle) and 19137 / 5816 (high of October 05, 2012 weekly candle).

Source: Falcon:

Actionable points:
View Expected target Support levels Bullish above 5920 5971 5893 - 5850

Trading strategy:
After a flat opening, indices immediately slipped below the critical support level of 19322 / 5837.This resulted in a swift decline on higher volumes to precisely test the next mentioned support level of 19195 / 5790. In this process, indices managed to fill a minor upside gap created on March 06, 2013. This 19195 /5970 level also coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 18760 / 5663 (low on March 04, 2012) to 19755 / 5971 (high on March 11, 2013). Therefore, immense buying interest around this level resulted in a recovery as markets managed to cross previous high of 18512 / 5894 and eventually, close convincingly above it. Considering yesterdays strong closing, we are of the opinion that indices are likely to test their immediate swing high of 19755 / 5971, if they sustain above 19605 / 5920. The daily RSI oscillator has turned upwards from the 50 mark, indicating strength in the upside momentum. A move beyond 19755 / 5971 would confirm a higher degree breakout of the bullish pattern. This may attract immense buying interest among market participants. In this scenario, indices may initially rally towards 19884 / 6008 level. On the flipside, 19338 / 5842 and 19179 / 5791 are likely to act as key support levels for our market in coming trading session.

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Daily Technical Report

March 15, 2013

Bank Nifty Outlook - (12021)

Yesterday, Bank Nifty too opened flat in-line with our benchmark indices and eventually index slipped below Wednesday's low to test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level acted as a strong support as the Index bounced back sharply to eventually close well inside the positive territory. Going forward, we may witness continuation of yesterdays up move once index sustains above yesterday's high of 12059. This may result in a further continuation of positive momentum and the index may test 12183 / 12241 levels. On the downside, 11828 - 11754 are key support levels for the index.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Expected Target Support Levels Bullish above 12059 12183 - 12241 11828 - 11754

Source: Falcon:

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Daily Technical Report

March 15, 2013

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT LUPIN M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS ULTRACEMCO WIPRO S2 19,026 5,745 11,375 1,230 185 4,709 1,273 1,815 698 305 194 383 289 378 315 274 1,792 322 2,904 764 788 601 1,639 93 440 1,040 149 2,823 298 340 72 627 1,457 591 880 1,337 146 307 762 108 413 825 411 2,131 160 519 819 289 96 342 1,530 1,876 430 S1 19,298 5,827 11,698 1,245 188 4,803 1,313 1,835 711 310 196 390 292 381 317 279 1,804 327 2,950 778 801 625 1,654 94 448 1,075 153 2,848 300 350 74 642 1,490 596 897 1,378 146 313 779 109 423 842 421 2,193 162 529 825 295 98 350 1,549 1,893 434 PIVOT 19,451 5,874 11,878 1,255 190 4,874 1,339 1,863 723 314 198 396 296 384 319 283 1,814 334 2,990 787 811 639 1,677 95 454 1,096 155 2,869 302 356 76 653 1,511 599 910 1,401 147 318 793 109 428 853 426 2,227 164 537 834 299 100 354 1,563 1,905 439 R1 19,724 5,955 12,201 1,269 192 4,968 1,379 1,883 736 318 201 403 299 388 321 288 1,826 340 3,036 801 823 663 1,691 97 462 1,131 159 2,894 304 366 78 669 1,543 604 927 1,442 148 325 811 110 438 871 436 2,289 167 547 839 305 102 361 1,582 1,922 443 R2 19,877 6,002 12,381 1,279 194 5,039 1,405 1,912 748 322 203 408 302 390 323 291 1,836 347 3,076 810 833 678 1,714 98 468 1,152 161 2,915 306 373 79 679 1,564 607 940 1,466 148 329 824 111 444 881 442 2,324 169 555 848 309 104 366 1,596 1,934 448

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Daily Technical Report

March 15, 2013
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Ankur Lakhotia Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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