Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Isma revises sugar output marginally upwards
Sugar mills body, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma), revised production estimates marginally upwards, as higher- thanexpected recovery was reported in Uttar Pradesh, Indias second- largest producer. From its earlier estimate of 24.3 million tonnes ( mt), refined sugar output is now expected to be 24.6 mt. Considering the actual output so far and production trends from some states, we have reviewed the estimates for the current season and have revised them to 24.6 mt, about 0.3 mt higher than the previous estimates, Isma said in a note.
(Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on March 15, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19428 5873 54.03 93.45 1593

-0.73 -0.62 -0.29 0.45 0.12

-1.30 -1.23 -0.59 1.63 1.01

-0.92 -1.02 0.38 -3.67 -3.14

9.91 9.15 7.43 -11.09 -4.01

.Source: Reuters

Spot rubber prices improve

Physical rubber prices improved on Friday. The market seemed to be moving with the hope that the steps taken by the Government to increase the import duty would help the commodity to recover from the current declines. There were enquiries from certain major consuming industries, an observer said. Sheet rubber firmed up to Rs 162.50 (Rs 162.00) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi according to traders and the Rubber Board. The trend was partially mixed as ISNR 20 finished unchanged on comparatively dull volumes. (Source: Business Line)

MCX to move market regulator on commodity transaction tax

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) held its board meeting on Friday to gauge the impact of the commodity transaction tax (CTT) on its business prospects. The Board has decided to make a detailed presentation to the market regulator, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), on the impact of this levy. The Government levied a CTT of 0.01 per cent on non-agriculture commodity derivatives in the Budget presented last month. MCX fears that this tax will lead to several job loss in non-urban areas, distortion in the price discovery mechanism, increase in hedging cost and drop in trading volumes. In a communication to the FMC, the exchange will highlight the unprecedented tax discrimination between derivatives in agricultural and non-agricultural commodities, shift of volumes to illegal (dabba) trading platforms and to the international markets, said MCX in statement. (Source: Business Line)

Production dips even as 90% land is under Bt Cotton cultivation

Government is ascertaining reasons behind dip in Bt Cotton production, which covers more than 90 per cent of the total cotton area in the country. We are seriously ascertaining what are the reasons for the decline in Bt cotton production, Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Processing Charan Das Mahant told Rajya Sabha. Mahant said yield of cotton in the country was recorded at 499 kg and 491 kg per hectare in 2010-11 and 2011-12 respectively. However, in 2012-13, it was estimated at 488 kg a hectare with more than 90 per cent of total area in the country is now under Bt Cotton cultivation. (Source: Financial Express)

Karnataka coffee belt gets good blossom showers

Coffee-growing regions of Kodagu, Chikmagalur and Hassan in Karnataka have received good blossom showers. Blossom shower in the coffee belt in Karnataka is very good this year. Very good for Arabica as compared to poor to patchy rains last year, Bose Mandana, a senior coffee planter from Suntikoppa in Kodagu told Business Line. March showers Rain in February, especially during mid-harvest, was worrisome, but March shower has been heavy and this has made us comfortable for the next three to four weeks, he added. In Kodagu rains have been good in Napoklu zone comprising Murnad, Madikeri and Napoklu whereas Gonikoppal zone, which comprises Virajpet, Gonikoppal, Kutta and Balale, needs additional showers. For robusta, south Kodagu got early showers in February and now has received moderate March showers. In Chikmagalur and Hassan districts, March rains have been well distributed. Due to timely showers and moisture status being good, many planters have begun applying manure in their estates. This year, they have been able to save on irrigation, said Mandana. (Source: Business
Line)

Tea delegation hopeful of 25 mkg export to Iran

Arising from the positive response Iranian tea importers showed to last weeks visit of Indian tea delegation, the Tea Board is hopeful of raising the countrys shipment to Iran to 25 mn kg (mkg) by 2015. Iran is an important market for Indian tea but because of political uncertainties in the Gulf region, Indias overall shipment to West Asia and North Africa, including to Iran, suffered in the last few years. Tea exports to Iran dropped from 13.92 mkg in 2008-09 to 13.28 mkg in 2009-10 but managed to rise to 15.89 mkg in 2010-11 before dropping to 11.05 mkg in 2011-12. The official data for 2012-13 is awaited but the Tea Board has targeted to export 25 mkg by 2015. Arising from our present delegation to Iran, we are hopeful of reaching this, V. George Jenner, Tea Boards Director of Tea Promotion for WANA, told Business Line.
(Source: Business Line)

No sales in N. Indian centres due to non-availability of teas

There were no sales this week at any of the three North Indian tea auction centres at Kolkata, Guwahati and Siliguri due to non-availability of tea. As a result, Sale Number 11 due this week could not be held at any of these centres and there were no auctions of either CTC/dust or orthodox or Darjeeling. There is nothing unusual about it, a spokesman for J. Thomas & Company Pvt Ltd, the tea auctioneers, told Business Line. Every year during this time one or two sales would get dropped due to non-availability of tea this being the closure of the season. He indicated that Sale Number 13, due to take place in the last week of this month, too might be dropped for the same reason. Limited quantities of Dooars variety of first flush new tea are expected to hit the auction in the first week of April, most probably from Sale Number 14 and it will be another two weeks or so before the Assam variety starts arriving (Sale Numbers 15, 16). The drought this year has hit the early crops but there have been some rains in the past few days, observed the spokesman. Lets us see. (Source: Business Line)

Coconut industry hails Kerala budget proposals

The coconut industry has hailed the allocation of Rs 25 crore in the Kerala budget to the sector as a positive step. T.K. Jose, chairman, Coconut Development Board, said the coconut sector would need government support for its overall development. The recent Union Budget had also allocated funds, especially for replanting and rejuvenation of coconut trees. The Board has asked for similar support from the State Government and we are happy to see that the Finance Minister had responded to our request, he said. (Source: Business Line)

Agriculture share in GDP may fall to 13.7 pc

The share of agriculture and allied sectors in India's GDP is likely to decline to 13.7% in 2012-13 on account of higher growth in the non-farm sectors, Parliament was informed today. In a written reply to Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq Anwar said the contribution of agriculture and allied sector to the GDP of the country declined from 14.6% in 2009-10 to 14.5% in 2010-11 and further to 14.1% in 2011-12.
(Source: Economic Times)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana recovered from lower levels due to demand from stockists at lower levels. However, sharp gains were capped due to the arrival pressure in the domestic markets and higher output expectations. The Spot settled 0.81% lower while the April Futures settled 0.47% higher on Friday. In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered for Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supplydemand mismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a concern. Stating that food inflation is worrying, he said the government would take all steps to augment the supply side.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3459 3402 Prev day -0.81 0.47

as on March 15, 2013 % change WoW MoM -1.66 -4.74 0.29 -1.59 YoY -0.84 -5.71

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22 February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.
nd

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence.

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Mar 16, 2013 Resistance 3420-3440

3360-3380

Trade Scenario
India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. In Canada chickpea output is estimated at 1.58 lakh tonnes compared with 86000 tn in 2011-12.

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade on a positive note today on account of demand from stockists. However, increasing arrivals of new crop from MP coupled with higher imports may exert downside pressure on the domestic prices. Also, prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 as farmers will not liquidate their produce below these levels.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined yesterday due to sluggish demand from the bulk manufacturers coupled with higher supplies. However, a sharp declined was cushioned as traders are adopting wait and watch policy ahead of decontrol decision. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.2% and 0.76% lower on Friday.
India, the world biggest sugar consumer, could consider easing curbs on the tightly controlled industry this week. Decontrolling the sugar sector would, involve abolition of regulated release mechanism, removal of levy sugar obligation from industry, freer export-import policy, removal of sugar from compulsory packing in jute bags only and a transparent policy linking cane price with sugar price. The government has decided not to increase import duty on sugar though industry bodies and manufacturers had demanded a hike in the duty to 60% from the current 10% to curb shipment of the sweetener. India's sugar production in the 2013/14 season is set to fall below consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims acreage in three key states.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3123

as on March 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.20 -0.72 MoM -2.40 YoY 8.79

Rs/qtl

3000

-0.76

-0.63

-4.00

8.42

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 539.4 419.78

as on March 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.41 0.27 0.78 0.37 MoM 8.31 3.62 YoY -19.25 -26.38

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, India produced 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe white sugar as well as raw sugar futures on ICE traded in a rangebound manner and settled 0.41% and 0.27% higher respectively on Friday. A global surplus situation coupled with ample supplies pressurized prices. However, reports that more cane will be diverted towards ethanol due to better realization supported prices. Currently the prices are trading around their 2 year lows. Prices also declined as ISO forecasted higher global sugar surplus. Brazil exported 1.21 mt of raw sugar in February, vs 1.73 mt in January. The ISO forecasted a global sugar surplus of 8.526 mn tn in 2012/13, up from 6.479 mn tn in 2011-12. It forecast that the sugar stocks-toconsumption ratio would rise to 40.56 percent in 2012/13 from 38.21 percent in 2011/12. Sugar traders are the most bullish since October on speculation that the slump in prices to the lowest in 2 1/2 years will spur Brazilian millers to make more biofuel and less of the raw sweetener from cane. Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel. If brazil cuts tax the ethanol parity to sugar may rise and thus the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may be 44 -45%, down from 49.6 % in the current period.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Mar 16, 2013 Resistance 3055-3075

3000-3015

Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade lower today due to higher supplies in the domestic markets. However, prices may recover as demand will now reemerge to meet the summer season requirement. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower cane availability this season.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean April gained yesterday due to short coverings
coupled with lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, weak international markets capped sharp upside. The spot settled as well as the April futures settled 0.59% and 0.91% higher on Friday. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. On a financial year basis, the export during April 2012 to February 2013 is 31,13,651 tonnes as compared to 34,52,791 tonnes in the same period of previous year showing a decrease of 9.82%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3593 3574 683.2 691.1 Prev day 0.59 1.98 0.87 1.34

as on March 15, 2013

WoW 1.70 1.91 -0.34 0.67

MoM 6.14 6.18 -7.13 -6.06

YoY 17.53 15.42 -9.00 -8.29

Source: Reuters

as on March 15, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1426 49.91 Prev day -2.14 1.67 WoW -5.47 -0.50 MoM 0.37 -2.33 YoY 4.16 -10.04

International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT declined by 0.66% on Friday on account slowing demand for old US soybean. No fresh sale of the old crop was reported. Also the advancement of the South American crop added to the downside pressure. However, there are reports that farmers in Argentina are holding back their crop anticipating higher prices. The USDA monthly crop report has kept the Brazil output unchanged at 83.5 mn tn while, it reduced Argentinas crop forecast from 53 mn tn to 51.5 mn tn. German oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 mn tn to 50 mn tn from its Jan estimates because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 mn tn. Argentina soybean acreage is estimated at 19.35 mn ha. U.S. farmers will harvest record soybean crops in 2013, ending three years of falling production and rebuilding nearly depleted stockpiles. U.S. soybean processors say they have been pleasantly surprised by the high oil content of the latest U.S. soybean harvest, a factor that has contributed to strong profit margins and should pad year-end soy oil inventories.

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on March 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.00 0.97 -3.53 -0.26

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Last 2348 455.9

MoM -3.97 0.91

YoY -31.35 -25.18

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3525 3477 Prev day 0.95 0.35 WoW -0.13 0.78

as on March 15, 2013 MoM -10.98 -0.03

Source: Reuters

YoY -9.62 -11.35

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and CPO gained by 1.7% and 0.97% on
account of short coverings. Lead speakers in the Palm Oil Conference have forecasted lower prices due to rising supplies. Higher global production estimates of palm oil by oil world have pressurized prices at higher levels. Global palm oil output is estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn. India's vegetable oil imports declined 17 percent from a month ago in February due to higher taxes. To curb imports, the tariff value of crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX April contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained by 0.35% on Friday

tracking positive edible oil pack. Arrivals have commenced in Rajasthan and thus may pressurize prices. Mustard seed sowing is now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%. MSP of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note. Weak international markets may pressurize prices while low supplies may support prices. Mustard seed may gain due to buying at lower levels while, higher output expectations may pressurize prices. Soy oil and CPO may continue to decline on account of forecast of higher supplies. However prices may find support on expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Mar Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Mar 16, 2013 Support 667-672 3460-3480 3450-3462 451-453 Resistance 682-686 3520-3540 3487-3500 458-461

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note with a positive bias yesterday. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies and delayed harvesting on back of to lack of skilled laborers supported the prices. However, prices declined towards the end on account of profit booking. Increasing arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka pressurized prices last week. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.05% lower while the April Futures settled 0.82% higher on Friday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,100/tn. Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 37088 37330 % Change Prev day -0.05 0.47

as on March 15, 2013 WoW 0.86 4.76 MoM -9.59 -7.86 YoY -5.21 -4.45

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX April contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonne s while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch)
Source: Telequote

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped 12000 mt of pepper in January 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Mar 16, 2013 Support 35610-35920 Resistance 36480-36720

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 67 tonnes while off takes were reported at 65 tonnes on Friday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a positive note today. Low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, improvement in arrivals may pressurize prices at higher levels.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a mixed note but recovered sharply towards the end on account of export demand. However, the spot did not gain much due to higher arrivals of the new crop. The arrivals of new crop are averaging around 25,000 bags/ day and are expected to improve in the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.05% and 1.41% higher on Friday. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,650 tn (c&f Europe) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13450 13243 Prev day 0.05 0.27

as on March 15, 2013 % Change WoW 0.16 0.42 MoM -3.01 -0.84 YoY 8.22 10.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 32,000 tn on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 2.24 -1.87

as on March 15, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6546 6930

WoW 13.26 3.74

MoM 19.12 8.01

YoY 74.00 73.95

Outlook
Jeera Futures trade on a mixed note. Fresh export as well as domestic demand may support prices while increasing arrivals may pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures witnessed a volatile session after NCDEX imposed special margin of 10% on the long side from 14/03/2013. Fresh export enquiries coupled with output concerns have pushed up the prices. Traders have received fresh orders from Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, Kolkata and some other places. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes. The Spot settled 0.24% higher while the Futures settled 1.87% lower on Friday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 6,000 bags and 16,000 bags respectively on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Reports of fresh export enquiries coupled with crop damage coupled and lower output concerns may support prices. Demand from stockists may also support prices. However, higher carryover stocks coupled with higher margin pressure may pressurize prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Mar 16, 2013

Support 13060-13250 6730-6830 Resistance 13580-13710 7080-7200

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton traded on a bullish note tracking positive international markets and settled 2.66% and 1.7% higher respectively on Friday. There is some buying interest seen from China which has raised expectations of export demand. Traders have demanded the government agencies (Cotton Corp of India) to release the stocks procured by them. The government has decided to continue with the current cotton exports policy. Traders expect exports to cross governments estimates of 8 mn bales. Finance Minister announced various incentives and policies in the Union Budget to support the ailing textile industry. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 1002 19100

as on March 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 2.66 3.30 1.70 2.47 MoM 6.71 2.47 YoY #N/A 8.83

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 92.5 81.35

as on March 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.80 6.67 0.00 0.00 MoM 14.45 0.00 YoY 3.84 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
th

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton traded on a bullish note yesterday and traded above 90 cents for the second consecutive day and settled 1.8% higher on Friday due to positive exports sales data. Prices are trading near year high levels. USDA, in its monthly crop report cut global cotton stock estimates on higher demand which cushioned a sharp downside in the prices. Buying by mills has also lifted the prices. Expectations of good demand from China supported prices at lower levels. U.S. growers will harvest the smallest cotton crop in four years and notch the smallest exports in 12 years as world demand for the fiber drops, especially in China. At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected a crop of 14 million bales from planted acreage of 10 million acres. Plantings would be the smallest in four years and down 19 percent from last year. The crop, projected to be down 18 percent from 2012, would be the smallest since 2009. China is planning to issue more cotton import quotas to exportdependent textile mills that are struggling to protect margins as domestic prices soar due to a state stockpiling plan. However, according to USDA, the world's largest cotton grower and user, will import the smallest amount of cotton, 8 million bales, in five years in 2013/14 as it copes with huge domestic reserves.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX March contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to trade on a positive note today extending yesterdays gains. Expectations of good exports may support prices. Also, the prices may take cues from firmness in the international markets. Expectations that China may release higher import quota which might boost imports also supported an upside in the cotton prices. Also, expected lower US cotton acreage and output in 2013-14 may also support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX March Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Mar 16, 2013 Support 985-992 18950-19040 Resistance 1010-1020 19240-19330

www.angelcommodities.com