n

10

20

30

50

100

13

24

51

H N Hn

1
4

= 0.25

3
10

= 0.3

8
20

= 0.4

14
30

= 0.43

24
50

= 0.48

51
100

= 0.51

n H N 0.5 0.5

0.5

probabilityevent
E
,
P( E ) =

100 0.5
random
1.1.
n E m E
m
P( E ) =
n
1 12

1.1
limit

0.250.30.51 empirical
probability

{2, 4, 6, 8} 1
0.5
P( 6) = 16 .
1.1 n
P( 6) 6
6 1.1 m = 1, n = 2
P( 6) = 12

2.1.
E
1. 0 P( E ) 1
2. P( E) = 1 P(E)

1.1 0 m n 0 P( E ) 1

E n m
E n m P (E ) = n nm = 1 mn = 1 P ( E )

E P(E) = 1 E P(E) = 0

mutually
2 12

exclusive

2.2.
k E1 E2 Ek
P ( E1 E2 ... Ek ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + ... + P ( Ek ) .

n E1 E2 Ek m1 m2 mk
k E1 E2 ... Ek m1 + m2 + ... + mk

P ( E1 E2 ... Ek ) =

m1 + m2 + ... + mk m1 m 2
m
= +
+ ... + k = P( E1 ) + P( E2 ) + ... + P( Ek ) .
n
n
n
n

k E1 E2 Ek 1 i < j k
P ( Ei E j ) = 0 .

2.2 P( 1) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6)

= 16 + 16 + 16 + 16 + 16 = 56 2.1 P( 1) = 1 P( 1) = 1 16 = 65 .

2.1.
2 4

23 12 11
P (2) = 361 111 11
{11}{21} {61} {21} {66}{mn} m
n P (2) = P (1,1) = 361
P (4) = P (1,3) + P (2, 2) + P (3,1) = 363 = 121

independent events

dependent events
E1 E2 ...Ek E1 E2 Ek
3 12

2.3.
k E1 E2 Ek
P ( E1 E2 ...Ek ) = P ( E1 ) P( E2 )...P ( Ek ) .

i = 1, 2, 3, , k Ei ni mi
n1n2 n3 ...nk k E1E2Ek m1m2 m3 ...mk

P ( E1 E2 ...Ek ) =

m1m2 ...mk m1 m2
m
= ... k = P( E1 ) P ( E2 )...P ( Ek )
n1n2 ...nk
n1 n2
nk

2.2.
1 4

54
64
2.3 P()= 54 54 54 = 125

2.2 2.3 P() = P()

48

+ P() + P() = 15 54 54 + 54 15 54 + 54 54 15 = 125

2.3.
kP(k )

k
P (k ) = P ( ) P ( ) P ( ) = 63 63 63 = 18

4 12

1. 5

2. ?

AB
P(A|B) B A

10 9 235 7
P( n | n 10 ) = 94 .

3.1.
E1 E2 Ek k
P ( E1 E2 ...Ek ) = P ( E1 ) P ( E2 | E1 ) P ( E3 | E1 E2 )...P ( Ek | E1 E2 ...Ek 1 )
k = 2 AB
P ( AB ) = P ( A) P ( B | A)

k > 2 k = 2

A, B AB n m A
l B A m + l P ( A) = mn+l A
m + l B m
P ( B | A) = mm+l P ( A) P ( B | A) = mn+l mm+l = mn = P ( AB )

A, B P ( B | A) = P ( B ) 3.1
2.3 P ( AB ) = P ( A) P ( B )

3.1.

5 12

P ( | ) = 13

3.2.
49 1 49 6

6 Ei i P ( E1 ) =

6
49

E1

48 5
P ( E2 | E1 ) = 485 P ( E3 | E2 E1 ) = 474 P( E6 | E5 E4 ...E1 ) = 441
1

3.1 P ( E1 E2 ...E6 ) = 496 485 ... 441 = 13983816

3.3.
3 1

14
34 32 = 12 .
1 3.1 12 12 = 14
P ( ) = 14 + 14 = 12

3.4.
40 365

6 12

40 1 40 i = 2, 3, , 40 Ei i i 1
363
362
P ( E2 ) = 364
365 P ( E3 | E2 ) = 365 P ( E4 | E3 E2 ) = 365
363
326
3.1 P () = P ( E2 E3 ...E40 ) = 364
365 365 ... 365 0.109
1 0.109 = 0.891

3.2

3.2.
A1 A2 Ak k
B
P ( B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 ) + ... + P ( Ak ) P ( B | Ak )
k = 2 AB
P ( B ) = P ( A) P ( B | A) + P(A) P ( B | A)

A1 A2 Ak A1 B A2 B Ak B B
( A1 B A2 B Ak B ) P ( B ) = P ( A1 B A2 B ... Ak B ) . 2.2
3.1,
P ( B ) = P ( A1 B ) + P ( A2 B ) + ... +P (Ak B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 ) + ... + P( Ak ) P( B | Ak )

3.2 k
P ( A1 A2 ... Ak ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + ... + P ( Ak ) = 1

3.5.
45 6
0.50.3 0.6?

3.2
5
6
4
15 (0.5) + 15 (0.3) + 15 (0.6) = 0.473

3.6.
1 50 2 3
7 12

1 50
A = {1, 4, , 49}B = {2, 5,, 50} C = {3, 6, , 48}
3
17
16
ABC 17
50 50 50 A
16
15
A 16
49 B C 49 49
16
17 16
16 15
8
3.2 17
50 49 + 50 49 + 50 49 = 25

1. 5 2

2. 4 1 1

3.

4. 2 4 8 4
1 3

5. 3.6 1 50 3

1.

2.

3.

8 12

4.1.
n n n!
n(n 1)(n 2)...(2)(1) , n 1
n! =
,n = 0
1

n! n permutations n
n ordered combination
3! = 6 {}{}
{}{}{} {}
{}{}

4.2. Crn Prn

n r r n Crn Prn
Crn =

n!
r !( n r ) !

Prn =

n!
( n r )!

Crn n r Prn n
r ABCD 4
C24 = 6 {AB}{AC}{AD}{BC}{BD}{C
D}{AB}{BA} P24 = 12

3.2 1 49 6 C649
1
C149 = 13983816

4.1 |A| A
9 12

3 5 7 15
= 5= 12= 7 = 15
A1 A2 Ak A1 A2 Ak

4.1.
A1 A2 Ak k
k

| A1 A2 ... Ak |= | Ai | | Ai A j | + ... + (1) k +1 | A1 A2 ... Ak |

i =1

i< j

k = 2

B
I

II

III

AB AB
|A B| = IIIIII = III
+ IIIII IIIIII = |A| + |B| |AB|.

Venn diagram
sets

4.1 4.2

4.2.
E1 E2 Ek k
k

P ( E1 E2 ... Ek ) = P ( Ei ) P ( Ei E j ) + ... + (1) k +1 P ( E1 E2 ...Ek )

i =1

i< j

10 12

4.1.
100 3 5

[x] x 4.1 100 3 5

3 + 5 3 5 = [ 993 ] + [ 995 ] [ 3995 ] = 33 + 19 6 = 46

4.2.
n n 1 n
n 1 i n i
i

1 i n Ei i i
P ( Ei ) =

( n 1)!
n!

ij(n 2)! Ei E j P ( Ei E j ) =

ijk P ( Ei E j Ek ) =

( n 3)!
n!

( n 2)!
n!

4.2

P ( E1 E2 ... Ek ) = C1n ( nn!1)! C2n ( n n!2)! + ... + (1)k +1 Cnn n1! = 1!1 2!1 + ... + (1)k +1 n1!
1 P( E1 E2 ... Ek ) = 2!1 3!1 ... + (1) k n1!

1. 1 1000 35 7

2. x-y (x, y) x y
1 x, y 4

3. 64000 ?

11 12

1.

1
36

2.

3
8

1.

5
9

2.

12

3. i i i1
2.2 3.1 P() = P() +
P() + P() + = 56 16 + ( 56 )3 16 + ( 65 )5 16 + ... = 115

4.

7
11

5.

409
1225

1. 543

2. x-y

x y
= C316 10C34 = 560 40 = 520

3. 64000 = 29 53 64000 2i 5 j
0 i 9 0 j 3 64000 (9+1)(3+1) = 40
12 12