IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTED SEA LEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGE ON COASTAL EMBANKMENTS OF SOME SELECTED POLDERS USING

MATHEMATICAL MODEL

AHSAN AZHAR SHOPAN

DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY DHAKA

FEBRUARY, 2011
-1-

DECLARATION
I, do, hereby, declare that the research work reported in this thesis has been performed by the author under the supervision of Dr. M. Mirjahan Miah, Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. Neither this thesis nor any part of it has been submitted or is concurrently submitted elsewhere for any purpose. To the best use of my knowledge and competence the thesis contains no material previously published partially or in full or written by any other person except when due references are made in the text of the thesis.

February, 2011

Signature of the Supervisor

Signature of the Author

_______________________ Prof. Dr. M. Mirjahan Miah

_______________________ Ahsan Azhar Shopan

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The author wishes to express his deepest gratitude to the almighty Allah for special blessings leading to the writing of this thesis work. The author would like to express his profound gratitude and indebtness to his superviser Dr. M. Mirjahan Miah, Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka for his untiring encouragement, generous support, valuable advice and constant guidance and inspiration at every stage of the work. The study would have been difficult to comprehend as well as to achieve without his guidance.

The author is grateful to Professor Dr. M. A. Matin, Head, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET for necessary help of the thesis work.

The author is indebted to Md. Mobassarul Hasan, Associate Specialist and Ms. Farhana Akhter Kamal, Junior Specialist, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Dhaka for their kind co-operation to provide necessary data for this thesis work.

The author is grateful to Md. Nasiruddin, Sub-Divisional Engineer and Mir Shahinur Rahman, Sectional Officer, BWDB, Satkhira Zone to for their kind co-operation during the field visit.

The author would like to specially thank Tonmoy Sarker and Md. Rakibul Hassan Khan for their kind and valuable help in the operation of HEC-RAS model.

Finally the author gratefully acknowledges the help, encouragement and co-operation received from his family and friends.

II

ABSTRACT

Polder no. 15, 7/1 and 7/2 are situated in Shyamnagar thana, Satkhira in SW zone of Bangaldesh. The embankments of these polders have been overtopped and breached during cyclonic storm surge Aila on May 25, 2009. The present study assesses the performance of the embankments of these polders during cyclone Aila and the adequacy of the existing embankment height against the simultaneous impact of sea level rise and storm surge using mathematical model. Data has been collected from different secondary sources. Embankment data has been collected from BWDB, Satkhira Zone. Bathymetry data and water level and discharge data has been collected from IWM. Other data used in this study hs been collected from other different sources.

In this study the performance of coastal embankments of polder no. 15, 7/1 and 7/2 during the cyclone Aila has been assessed through field visit. It has been found that these embankments constructed during the 1960s have now been unable to protect the polders from the impact of storm surge. Climate change and associated sea level rise will make the embankments more inadequate to resist storm surges.

From mathematical modeling it has been found that embankment height of the polders selected for this study are not sufficient to resist the simultaneous impact of SLR and cyclonic storm surge associated with high tide. In this study SIDR has been selected as cyclonic storm as it is the most devastating than other historical cyclonic storm and also because the original wind speed of SIDR (225 kmph) corresponds to that of a cyclone with a return period of 20 years (223 kmph). According to the 4th IPCC Report if temperature is increased by 4oC wind speed will be increased by 10%. Thus considering temperature would increase by 4oC in the year 2100 the wind speed of cyclone SIDR has been considered as 248 kmph in mathematical modeling. The cyclone has been considered to travel along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR at high tide.

III

In case of polder no. 15 surge height has been found to be 4.36 m above the crest level of existing embankment where as in polder no. 7/1 it would be 4.42 m and in polder no. 7/2 it would be 4.55 m. So it is essential to raise the embankment height with proper redesign to protect the people and their livelihood inside the polders.

Finally the crest level for the selected polders has been calculated. In case of polder no. 15 crest level is 9.64 mPWD. Again in case of polder no. 7/1 crest level is 9.8 mPWD and in case of polder no. 7/2 crest level is 9.93 mPWD. In all cases the suggested crest level is much higher than the existing one and all the suggested height are for the year 2100 considering 1.5 m sea level rise and normal high tide.

It is extremely important to reconsider the existing coastal infrastructure based on this and redesign existing coastal embankments to rehabilitate these structures and make it climate resilient. The risk of sea level rise and cyclonic storm surge are to be considered for future planning and design of coastal structure. Proper adaptation measures both structural and non-structural are to be planned in order to find a climate resilient coastal environment for coastal people and their livelihood security.

IV

Table of Contents
Page No.

Declaration Acknowledgement Abstract Table of Contents List of Figures List of Tables Abbreviations

I II III V VII X XI

Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1. General 1.2. Background 1.3. Objectives of the Study 1 4 4

Chapter 2: Literature Review

2.1 General 2.2 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 2.3 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges in Bangladesh 2.4 Coastal Embankment Related Studies 5 5 10 19

Chapter 3: Study Area

3.1 Study Area 3.2 Polder 15 3.3 Polder 7/1 3.4 Polder 7/2 21 22 24 26

Chapter 4: Description of Models

4.1 General 4.2 HEC-RAS 4.3 MIKE-21 29 29 38

Chapter 5: Methodology
5.1 Data Collection 5.2 Field Visit 5.3 HEC-RAS 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling 48 51 52

Chapter 6: Results and Discussion

6.1 Performance of coastal embankments of the selected polders during cyclone AILA 6.2 Adequacy of the existing embankment height 70 62

Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Conclusions 7.2 Recommendations 81 82

References Appendix-A: Streamline Co-ordinates Appendix-B: Cross-Section Data Appendix-C: Flow Hydrographs and Stage Hydrographs

83 88 94 109

VI

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Potential impact of sea level rise on Bangladesh Figure 1.2: Coastal Zone of Bangladesh Figure 1.3: Coastal Zone of Bangladesh with polders Figure 2.1: Causes of sea level rise Figure 2.2: Tracks of cyclones Figure 2.3: Number of cyclonic storms landed on Bangladesh coast in different decades Figure 2.4: Monthly variation of Cyclone during 1960-2007 Figure 2.5: Yearly variation of wind speed Figure 2.6: Yearly variation of surge height Figure 2.7: Satellite Image of Cyclone Aila Figure 2.8: Track of Cyclone Aila Figure 3.1: Location of the Study Area on Polder Map Figure 3.2: Typical cross-section of the embankment of Polder 15 Figure 3.3: Index Map of Polder 15 Figure 3.4: Typical cross-section of the embankment of Polder 7/1 Figure 3.5: Index Map of Polder 7/1 Figure 3.6: Typical cross-section of the embankment of Polder 7/2 Figure 3.7: Index Map of Polder 7/2 Figure 3.8: Study Area on Google Earth Figure 4.1: Schematic channel cross-section Figure 4.2: Different Components of HEC-RAS Figure 4.3: Model domain of three nested model Figure 4.4: Calibration against discharge data at North Hatiya during 2006 Figure 4.5: Calibration against water level data at Charchenga during 2006 Figure 4.6: Validation against discharge data at West Shahbazpur Channel during December 2007 Figure 4.7: Validation against Discharge data at East Shahbazpur Channel during December 2007 Figure 4.8: South-West Region Model 47 46 13 14 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 31 33 41 45 45 46 1 2 3 5 12 13

VII

Figure 5.1: Shape file of river reaches surrounding the study area Figure 5.2: Point theme of study reach Figure 5.3: Attribute table of point theme of study reach Figure 5.4: Steps of HEC-RAS 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling Figure 5.5: Entering streamline co-ordinates Figure 5.6: Editing junction data Figure 5.7: Schematized river system Figure 5.8: Entering cross-section data Figure 5.9: Interpolating cross-section data Figure 5.10: View on Geometric Data Editor after interpolating cross-section data Figure 5.11: Calibration against water level during 2009 Figure 5.12: Different steps of entering boundary conditions and initial flows Figure 5.13: Locations of application of boundary conditions Figure 5.14: Performing Unsteady Flow Simulation Figure 6.1: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 15 due to cyclone AILA Figure 6.2: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 7/1 due to cyclone AILA Figure 6.3: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 7/2 due to cyclone AILA Figure 6.4: Images from the study area during field visit Figure 6.5: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.6: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.7: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.8: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.9: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.10: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.11: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide
VIII

50 50 51 52 53 54 54 55 56 56

57 58 59 60 64 65 66 67 71

72

73

74

75

76

77

Figure 6.12: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide Figure 6.13: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

78

79

IX

List of Tables
Table 2.1: Change in MSL in different tidal water level stations Table 2.2: Trend of tidal level in three coastal stations of Bangladesh Table 2.3: List of most vulnerable countries to cyclone Table 2.4: List of major cyclones from 1960 to 2007 Table 2.5: Monthly variation of cyclone from the year 1960 to 2007 Table 2.6: Damages to Infrastructure by Cyclone Aila Table 2.7: Cyclone Wind Speeds Table 2.8: Design Surge Heights Table 2.9: Embankments under CEP Table 4.1: Model grid specification Table 4.2: Relative grid positions Table 4.3: Land-water data used for generating the bathymetry Table 4.4: Manning number distribution Table 4.5: Tidal constituents for Vishakhapatnam and Gwa Bay Table 5.1: Survey period of collected cross-section data Table 5.2: Scenario for model simulation Table 6.1: Damages to the selected polders due to cyclone Aila Table 6.2: Maximum water level around individual polders Table 6.3: Design crest level of the embankments of selected polders 7 8 10 11 14 16 17 17 20 42 42 42 43 44 48 57 62 70 80

Abbreviations
BBS BMD BoB BoBM BUET BWDB CEGIS CEP CERP CPP CZPo DMB EPWAPDA FAP HEC-RAS IPCC IUCN IWM JTWC MSL NAPA OECD PWD RSMC SLR SMRC SWMC UNDP UNEP WARPO WMO Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Bangladesh Meteorological Department Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal Model Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Bangladesh Water Development Board Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services Coastal Embankment Project Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project Coastal Protection Project Coastal Zone Policy Disaster Management Bureau East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority Flood Action Plan Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Union for Conservation of Nature Institute of Water Modelling Joint Typhoon Warning Center Mean Sea Level National Adaptation Program of Action Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Public Work Datum Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Sea Level Rise SAARC Meteorogical Research Centre Surface Water Modelling Center United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme Water Resources Planning Organization World Meteorological Organization

XI

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 General Climate change is an important issue nowadays. Due to various human activities, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are accumulated in the earths atmosphere. The ultimate result is global warming, i.e. climate change. Rising temperature in the atmosphere causes sea level rise. Sea level rise affects low lying coastal areas and deltas of the world. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, as it is a densely populated low-lying coastal country of extremely gentle slope comprising broad and narrow ridges and depressions (Brammer et al., 1993). The World Bank (2000) estimates a 10 cm, 25 cm and 1 m rise in sea level by 2020, 2050 and 2100 respectively. This rise would inundate 2%, 4% and 17.5% of the total land mass of the country. Milliman et al. (1989) reported a sea level rise in Bangladesh of 1.0 cm per year. According to the Synthesis Report of Copenhagen Summit on March 2009 maximum sea level rise (SLR) will be 0.5-1.5 m by the year 2100. Figure 1.1 illustrates the potential impact of 1.0 m and 1.5 m sea level rise on Bangladesh.

1 meter metersea sealevel levelrise rise 1

BAY OF BENGAL

meter sea sealevel levelrise rise 1.5 meter

BAY OF BENGAL

Land Landsubmerged submerged -17,000 17,000 sq. km. km. Actual People sea affected-15 level affected 15 million People million

Land submerged submerged 22,000 sq. Land -22,000 sq. km. km. People affected-18 affected 18million million People

Figure: Potential Impact ofof Sea Level Rise on Bangladesh Figure 1.1: Potential impact sea level rise on Bangladesh

The southern part of Bangladesh is connected to the Bay of Bengal through a 710 km of coastline (CZPo, 2005). The coastal area of Bangladesh consists of 19 districts comprising 147 upazilas (CZPo, 2005). Total area of the coastal zone is 47,201 sq. km which is 32 % of the total landmass of the country (Islam, 2004, p. xvii). A total of 48 upazilas in 12 districts that are exposed to the sea and/or lower estuaries are defined as the exposed coast and the remaining 99 upazilas of the coastal districts are termed as interior coast. The total population living in the coastal zone is 35.1 million, i.e. 28 % of the total population of the country (BBS, 2003). Population density in the exposed coast is 482 persons per sq km as opposed to 1,012 for the interior coast. Average population density of the zone is 743 per sq km, compared with the national average of 839.

Figure 1.2: Coastal Zone of Bangladesh (Source: Islam, 2004)

The coastal region is marked by morphological dynamic river network, sandy beaches and estuarine system. The interaction of huge fresh water and sediment load coming from the upstream and saline waterfront penetrating inland from the sea are the main features of the coastal area. . Almost one third of the landmass lies within the 4 m contour line. These vast areas of low-lying land are threatened by different levels of sea level rise.
2

There are approximately 123 polders in the coastal area. These polders are protecting 12,80,479 ha of land area under 11 coastal districts comprising 58 upazilas (BWDB, 2001). Polders are low-lying lying tract of land enclosed by embankments known as dikes that forms an artificial hydrological entity meaning it has no connection with outside water other than through manually operated devices. These polders were constructed from the mid-sixties sixties to the mid seventies of the 20th century by Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and its predecessor, East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) to protect the land from tidal and monsoon flooding and saline water intrusion in order to increase agricultural ural production without any consideration of safety against cyclonic surges. These polders can protect the normal tide only but cannot resist storm surge height. Height of the embankment of all these polders varies between 3 m to 7 m (IWM, 2005). The total length of coastal embankment is about 5017 km (BWDB 2001).

Figure 1.3: Coastal Zone of Bangladesh with polders (Source: IWM)

1.2 Background
Bangladesh is widely recognized to be one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to climate change and associated sea level rise. The country also experiences frequent natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges and floods, which cause loss of life, damage to infrastructure and economic assets. One of the most devastating cyclones that recently hit Bangladesh is AILA. Cyclone AILA hit the south-western coast of Bangladesh on May 25, 2009. A storm surge of 3 m (10 ft) impacted western regions of Bangladesh, submerging numerous villages. Several rivers broke through embankments, causing widespread inland flooding

(www.wikipedia.com). Torrential rains from AILA resulted in at least 190 fatalities from flooding (DMB, 2009).

According to IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) the frequency and intensity of such severe cyclones will increase by the year 2100 due to climate change. Moreover, IWM and CEGIS (2007) have studied that about 13 polders will be overtopped by the year 2080 due to sea level rise. Damages by cyclone AILA indicates to the fact that the embankments of the polders which are designed to protect the polders from tidal flooding only require design modification to protect the polders from the effect of sea level rise and cyclonic storm surges.

This study will assess the susceptibility of the countrys coastal infrastructure to the effects of sea level rise and cyclonic storm surges. Mathematical model will be applied to assess the impact of sea level rise with cyclonic storm surge on coastal embankments of some selected polders. Focus will be on the embankment height.

1.3 Objectives of the study

The objectives of the study have been described as follows:

To assess the performance of coastal embankments of some selected polders during cyclone AILA.

To assess the adequacy of existing embankment height of selected polders against the simultaneous impact of predicted sea level rise and storm surge using mathematical model.

To propose modification of crest level of the coastal embankments.

4

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 General
The coastal region of Bangladesh is prone to multi-hazard threats such as cyclones, storm surges, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, and above all, climate change. Bangladesh has been also identified as one amongst 27 countries, which are the most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming induced accelerated sea level rise. Several studies have been carried out all over the world to see the impact of climate change, sea level rise and climate change induced cyclonic surge in the near future and the possible adaptations against it. In this chapter some previous studies have been reviewed which are related to the present study.

2.2 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

The dominant factor for climate change is the increase in concentration of various gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc.) in the atmosphere. Rising temperature expands the ocean volume in two ways. Firstly, it melts the mass volume of ice in the polar region and secondly, it causes thermal expansion of the oceans. The human factor mainly responsible for global warming and sea level rise is the burning of fossil fuels. Deforestation is another human activity, responsible for decreasing the CO2 sink.

Figure 2.1: Causes of sea level rise (Source: IPCC, 2001)

5

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on this subject. IPCC, established under World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), has published four assessment reports till now (2010) namely the First Assessment Report (FAR, 1990), the Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1995), the Third Assessment Report (TAR, 2001) and the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007).

In the First Assessment Report, IPCC estimated that global temperature would increase by 1oC by the year 2050 and 2oC by the year 2100 and sea level rise would be 107 cm by the year 2100 considering the year 1990 as baseline (IPCC, 1990).

In the Second Assessment Report, it is projected that the average surface temperature would increase by 1oC to 3.5oC and the sea level would rise by 15 to 95 cm respectively over the period 1990 to 2100 (IPCC, 1995).

In the Third Assessment Report, the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4oC to 5.8oC over the period 1990 to 2100 and the sea level is projected to rise by 9 to 88 cm over the same period (IPCC, 2001). National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA, 2005) has predicted the sea level rise for Bangladesh based on IPCCs Third Assessment Report (TAR, 2001) and stated that SLR for the year 2030, 2050 and 2100 would be 14 cm, 32 cm and 88 cm respectively with respect to the year 1990.

In the Fourth Assessment Report, it has been projected that global sea level rise and temperature increase between 2090 and 2100 would be 18 to 59 cm and 1.1oC to 6.4oC respectively with respect to the year 1980-1999. The report has also shown that the frequency and intensity of severe storm, rainfall intensity and drought will increase dramatically (IPCC, 2007).

Again, according to the Synthesis Report of Copenhagen Summit on March 2009 maximum sea level rise will be 0.5-1.5 m by the year 2100 (Richardson et al, 2009).

2.2.1 Global Sea Level Rise

Global sea level has risen by 10 to 25 cm over the past 100 years and much of the rise may be related to the increase in global mean temperature (IPCC, 2007). A study by Church et al. (2004) found a sea level rise of 1.80.3 mm per year over a 51 year period (1950-2000). Church & White (2006) estimated a sea level rise from January 1870 to December 2004 of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea level rise of 1.70.3 mm per year and a significant acceleration of sea level rise of 0.0130.006 mm per year. With this constant rate of acceleration, sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 would range from 280 to 340 mm.

2.2.2 Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh

Matin (2008) in his report published for IUCN analyzed water level data of 13 coastal stations of BWDB covering the whole coastal area from west to east using the measured data of last 21 years to observe the sea level rise trend. Change of MSL for all stations has been presented in Table 2.1. It has been found that 9 out of 13 stations show increasing tendency of MSL. So it is an indication of sea level rise in the coastal area of Bangladesh.

Table 2.1: Change in MSL in different tidal water level stations

River
Ichamati (Western border) Pussur Alipur Khal Doratana Baleswa Bishkhali Buriswar Lower Meghna Hatiya Feni Sangu Matamuhuri Kutubdia Channel Moheskhali Channel

Station ID
SW130 SW244 SW1 SW107.2 SW39 SW20 SW279 SW321 SW87 SW248 SW204 SW176 SW200
7

Station
Kaikhali Mongla Bagerhat Rayenda Patharghata Amtali Tajumuddin Hatiya Sonapur Dohazari Chiringa Lemsikhali Saflapur

Change of MSL (mm/yr)

10.50 10.90 6.20 3.70 15.70 4.5 30.00

-1.80
49.80

-2.10
20.70

-8.20 -6.20

Singh et al. (2000) analyzed the tidal level in Hiron Point, Char Changa and Coxs Bazar based on the tidal gauge record of the period 1977-1998. All three stations showed increasing tendency of tidal level. Table 2.2 represents the trend of tidal levels in these stations.

Table 2.2: Trend of tidal level in three coastal stations of Bangladesh

Tidal Station
Hiron Point Char Changa Coxs Bazar

Region

Latitude (N)
o o

Longitude (E)
89 28 91 06 91o59
o o

Datum (m)
3.784 4.996 4.836

Trend (mm/yr)
4.0 6.0 7.8

Western Central Eastern

21 48 22 08 21o26

(Source: Singh et al., 2000, SMRC Report No. 3)

Two estimates for potential future sea level rise in Bangladesh prior to the projection of NAPA (2005) are 0.3-1.5 m and 0.3-0.5 m for the year 2050 considering the year 1990 as baseline. Besides ice melting and thermal expansion, area specific land subsidence and uplifting is a contributory factor to the sea level rise in Bangladesh. The Ganges and the Brahmaputra deliver approximately 1.6 billion tons of sediment annually to the face of Bangladesh (Broadus, 1993). These sediments compensate for the natural compaction and subsidence of the delta and keep its size relatively stable. Sediment replenishment is considered to balance the subsidence of the delta that results in a net sea level rise (Agrawala et al., 2003, p. 15).

Studies from OECD (2003) shows that, due to a rise of 100 cm in the sea level, Bangladesh would face a catastrophic situation, including permanent inundation of about 15-18% of its low-lying coastal areas, loss of different species in the Sundarbans, displacements of over 10 million people, loss of vulnerable agricultural land and extension of salinity intrusion further inland. Hasan (2008) (Ref. no. 15) in his study estimated that due to 27 cm sea level rise brackish water area will be increased by 6% and due to 62 cm sea level rise, brackish water area will be increased by 9%. It is also estimated that for the base condition (2005), about 6.0 million people are already exposed to high salinity (>5 ppt), which will be increased to 13.6 million by the year 2050 and 14.8 million by the year 2080.
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BUET (2008) carried out project on preparation of Lookup Table and generation of PRECIS scenarios for Bangladesh. In this study a regional climate modeling system called PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) is used to generate projection for rainfall and temperature using SAES A2 emission scenario. Projected annual rainfall obtained are 6.93, 6.84 and 7.17 mm/d in 2030, 2050 and 2070 respectively whereas the baseline (1961-1990) rainfall is 6.78 mm/d. The important notice is that in Bangladesh monsoon and post monsoon rainfall will increase whereas dry season rainfall will be remaining closer to historical amount. Monthly average maximum temperature will change from -1.2 to +4.7oC in 2030, from -1.2 to +2.5oC in 2050 and from -1.20 to +3.0oC in 2070. On the other hand monthly average minimum temperature will increase in all period and vary from 0.3 to 2.4oC in 2030. A Lookup Table has been prepared to obtain the project rainfall and temperature (maximum and minimum), firstly in reference to the observed data during baseline period 1961-1990. Using the prepared Look-up table PRECIS generated scenarios was validated for 1989, 1990, 2000 and 2001. Validation was found significant at 99% level. Through validation a projection factor for each parameter is obtained which is employed in preparing projected rainfall and temperature.

IWM (2005) has made a detailed impact assessment of sea level rise on inundation, drainage congestion, salinity intrusion and change of surge height in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. The potential effect of climate change were studied for different sea level rise i.e. 14 cm, 32 cm and 88 cm for the projected years 2030, 2050 and 2100. Mathematical models of the Bay of Bengal have been used to transfer the sea level rise in the deep sea along the southwest region river and Meghna Estuary. The study shows that about 11% more area (4107 km) will be inundated due to 88 cm sea level rise in addition to the existing (year 2000) inundation area under the same upstream flow. The 5 ppt saline front moves landward remarkably for sea level rise of 88 cm. About 84% of the Sundarbans area becomes deeply inundated due to 32 cm sea level rise and for 88 cm sea level rise Sundarbans will be completely lost. Due to 32 cm sea level rise surge height increase in the range of 5% to 15% in the eastern coast. It also observes that 10% increase in wind speed of 1991 cyclone along with 32 cm sea level rise would produce 7.8 m to 9.5 m high storm near Kutubdia- Coxs Bazar coast.

2.3 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges in Bangladesh

The coastal area of Bangladesh is always vulnerable to cyclone-induced storm surge. There are mainly three reasons behind it. The first one is that the continental shelf is long and shallow and the funnel shape of the coast tends to concentrate and amplify the surge in the northern part of the Bay. Secondly the coastal zone is low-lying with 62% of the land have an elevation of up to 3 meters and 86% up to 5 meters from the mean sea level (IWM, 2009). The third reason is that the coastal area is densely populated (Total Population: 35.1 million, Average population density: 743 per sq km; Source: BBS, 2003). UNDP has identified Bangladesh to be the most vulnerable country in the world to tropical cyclones.

Table 2.3: List of most vulnerable countries to cyclone

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6

Country Bangladesh India Philippines Honduras Vietnam China

Deaths/100000 people exposed to cyclone 32.1 20.2 8.3 7.3 5.5 2.8

(Source: UNDP, 2004)

About one-tenth of the global total cyclones forming in different regions of the tropics occur in the Bay of Bengal. About one-sixth of the tropical storms generated in the Bay of Bengal usually hit the Bangladesh coast. Historical record shows that more than 15 severe cyclones are generated in the Bay of Bengal in every ten years. During 1960-2007 about 18 severe cyclones hit the coast of Bangladesh (IWM, 2009). During the period 1582 to 1997 there were 82 cyclones that devastated the coastline of Bangladesh (Jacobson et al. 2006). These cyclones originated mainly in Indian Ocean or Bay of Bengal generally form in the months just before and after the monsoon and typically move to north to northeastern direction towards the land (SMRC, 1998). It is seen that the eastern coast experiences maximum inundation between 4-6 m and western coast experiences inundation within the range of 3-5 m (IWM, 2009).

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Table 2.4 represents the cyclones and associated maximum wind speeds and surge heights since 1960. Figure 2.2 illustrates the tracks of the cyclones.

Table 2.4: List of major cyclones from 1960 to 2007

Year
1960 1960 1961 1961 1962 1963 1963 1963 1965 1965 1965 1966 1967 1967 1970 1970 1971 1973 1973 1974 1983 1985 1988 1990 1991 1991 1994 1997 1997 1998 2007

Time
9-Oct 30-Oct 9-May 27-May 26-Oct 28-May 5-Jun 25-Oct 10-May 31-May 14-Dec 10-Oct 11-Oct 23-Oct 5-May 12-Nov 16-Nov 29-Nov 9-Dec 28-Nov 9-Nov 25-May 29-Nov 18-Dec 29-Apr May April May Sep Nov 15-Nov

Storm surge (m)

6 4.2 9 7 5.8 5 3.1 2.2 4 7.1 4 7 3 2 2.3 9 1 3.5 7.5 5 3 4.5 3.5 2 7.5 1.9 4 3 3 2.4 8

Wind (kmph)
129 210 145 145 200 203 135 105 161 162 210 145 160 130 148 222 110 165 122 161 136 154 160 115 225 90 210 220 150 100 225

Zone
Meghna estuary Chittagong coast Meghna estuary Chittagong-Noakhali coast Feni-Chittagong Coast Noakhali-Cox's Bazar Coast Sunderban Teknaf Barisal-Chittagong coast Chittagong Coast Cox's Bazar-Teknaf coast Chittagong and Sandwip Sunderban-Noakhali coast Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coast Chittagong-Teknaf coast Khulna-Chittagong coast Sunderban coast Chittagong coast Sundarban-Patuakhali coast Cox's Bazar-Chittagongoffshore Chittagong-Teknaf coast Noakhali-Cox's Bazar coast Sundarban Cox's Bazar coast Patuakhali-Cox's Bazar coast Cox's Bazar-Chittagongoffshore Cox's Bazar Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coast Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coast Khulna, Barishal & Patuakhali Khulna, Barishal & Patuakhali

(Source: BMD)
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Figure 2.2: Tracks of cyclones (Source: CEGIS)

12

A decade wise and month wise distribution of cyclones are presented in Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4 respectively. These figures illustrate that 1960s decade can be recognized for receiving maximum number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and that pre-monsoon and post-monsoon cyclones are in appearance.

Figure 2.3: Number of cyclonic storms landed on Bangladesh coast in different decades (Source: BMD)

Monthly Variation of Cyclone(1990-2000) Monthly Variation of Cyclone (1960-2007)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2.4: Monthly variation of cyclone during 1960-2007(Source: BMD)

13

Table 2.5 represents the monthly variation in number of cyclones to hit the Bangladesh coast from the year 1960 to 2007.

Table 2.5: Monthly variation of cyclone from the year 1960 to 2007 Month Cyclone(s) Jan 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 0 2 9 1 0 0 1 7 8 3

(Source: BMD)

A yearly variation of wind speed and surge height of cyclones to hit the coast of Bangladesh during the period 1960-2007 are presented in Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6 respectively.

Yearly Variation of Wind Speed

250 200 150 Wind100 Speed50 (km/h) 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 2010

Figure 2.5: Yearly variation of wind speed (Source: BMD)

Yearly Variation of Surge Height

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1961 1962 1963 1965 1965 1967 1969 1970 1973 1974 1985 1990 1992 1997 1998

Surge H eight (m)

Year

Figure 2.6: Yearly variation of surge height (Source: BMD)

14

2.3.1 Cyclone AILA Cyclone AILA (RSMC Designation: BOB02, JTWC Designation: 02B) is one of the historical tropical cyclones to hit the coast of Bangladesh. It was the second tropical cyclone to form within the Northern Indian Ocean during 2009. The disturbance that was to become Cyclone AILA formed on 21 May 2009 about 950 kilometers (590 miles) to the south of Kolkata, India. Over the next couple of days the disturbance slowly developed before a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was issued by JTWC early on 23 May 2009 and being designated as a depression by RSMC New Delhi as Depression BOB 02. Depression BOB02 continued to intensify slowly until early the next day when it was upgraded to a Deep Depression by RSMC New Delhi, and designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B by the JTWC. Later that day, RSMC New Delhi reported that the deep depression had intensified into a Cyclonic storm and had been named as AILA whilst located about 350 kilometers (220 miles) to the southeast of Sagar Island. AILA became a severe cyclonic storm at 12 pm local time on May 25 and made landfall at its peak intensity between 2 pm and 3 pm on that day. Highest wind speed of Cyclone AILA was 120 km/hr (1-minute sustained) and lowest pressure was 96.8 kPa. (www.wikipedia.org). Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8 represent the satellite image and the track of Cyclone Aila respectively.

Figure 2.7: Satellite Image of Cyclone AILA (Source: Wikipedia)

15

Figure 2.8: Track of Cyclone AILA (Source: Wikipedia)

More than 400,000 people were reportedly isolated and at least 190 people killed by severe flooding in coastal regions of Bangladesh. Numerous villages were either completely submerged in floodwaters or destroyed. A summary of damages to infrastructure by Cyclone AILA has been presented in Table 2.6.

Table 2.6: Damages to Infrastructure by Cyclone AILA

Road (km)

Embankment (km)

Bridge/Culvert

Full

Partial

2233

6621

1742.53

157

(Source: DMB, 2009)

16

2.3.2 Past Studies on Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surges The "Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Programme" (MCSP) made a very thorough analysis of various aspects of the generation of cyclone surges and its penetration inland, and introduced a number of important statistical considerations to take into account when studying surge heights for engineering purposes. Ultimately it was decided to base the design surge heights on an empirical formula by Reid that relates surge height to the cyclone wind speed and the length of the continental shelf. The yearly maximum wind speed (anywhere in the Bay) was analyzed statistically using Reid's formula resulting in a relationship between return period and wind speed as showed in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7: Cyclone Wind Speeds Return Period (years) Wind Speed (km/h) (Source: BMD) 5 10 20 25 50 100

165

195

223

233

261

289

The High Risk Area (HRA) was defined as any area having experienced flooding of one meter or more. The design flood depth within the area was subsequently determined by linear interpolation between the one meter on the landward boundary and the height of the surge plus spring tide at the coast are shown in Table 2.3.

Table 2.8: Design Surge Heights Return Period Wind Speed (m/s) Region Teknaf-Cox's Bazar Cox's Bazar-Chittagong Chittagong-Bhola Bhola-Barguna Barguna-Khulna (Source: Banglapedia)
17

20 223

50

100 Length of shelf (km) 140 230 260 200 160

261 289 Surge Height (m) 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.8 6.5 5.1 4.3 7 7.8 6.2 5.2

4.3 4.8 3.8 3.1

Shahadat (2000) used a numerical 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate 1876 cyclonic surge. Bakerganj cyclone, which crossed the outskirts of the then Bakerganj area in Bangladesh on November 1, 1876, has been classified as greatest natural catastrophe ever experienced in Bangladesh. The maximum surge residual, obtained from the model, is close to the recorded information of BMD. The sensitivity analyses for four different conditions prove that during cyclone time, wind speed determine the surge height while cyclonic pressure is far less important.

Ali (1997) in his study studied the interaction among river discharge, storm surges and tides in the Meghna river estuary in Bangladesh using a two-dimensional vertically integrated numerical model of the northern Bay of Bengal. River discharge and tidal flow across the river mouth act both positively and negatively depending on the tidal phase, positively during high tide and negatively during low tide. This is also true for the combination of all three forces .On the other hand, in the most of the crisis, river discharge acts in opposition to the storm surge. Under certain conditions and on rare occasions thy acts positively. The interactions between river discharge and storm surge, depend on their relative magnitudes. In respect of total elevation in the estuarial region, river discharge tends to increase the surge height. However, away from estuary, the effect of river discharge is hardly discernible.

As-Salek (2001) in his study found that in general the tide-surge interaction in the Meghna estuary shows a progressive wave nature of the local tide. If the peak of the maximum surge coincides with the tidal peak near the landfall, the surge propagates toward the north faster than when the surge peak coincides with the tidal trough. Cyclone that make landfall before the arrival of the tidal peak produce higher but shorter duration surges than those that make landfall after the arrival of the tidal peak. If the rainfall time of the cyclone is kept fixed, the surge peaks are found to arrive earlier with the increase in the propagation speed of the cyclone and with the decrease of radius of the maximum cyclone wind. The arrival time of maximum peak surge in the northernmost estuary may be delayed by about 3-4 hr the arrival time in the southern landfall point.

18

Hasan and Navera (2009) estimated the potential impacts of climate change induced cyclonic storm surge on selected islands of Bangladesh namely Sandwip and Hatiya. The study estimates that SIDR is the most devastating cyclone considering wind speed. It also shows that the wind speed is increasing gradually from historical wind speed data. Two different local models were made for two islands and SIDR track considering high tide was used to assess the impact on those islands. Again three different tracks were taken for these two islands one is to the north, one is to the middle and one is to the south. It was found that if the cyclone crosses to the north of island it creates most devastation. Model result shows that if SIDR type cyclone comes with SLR 0.59 m and 1.0 m during high tide maximum surge height will be 6.5 m and 6.82 m for Sandwip Island and 9.2 m and 9.5 m for Hatiya Island respectively. According to the 4th IPCC report, if temperature is increased by 4oC wind speed will be increased by 10%. If the same cyclone comes with 10% increased wind speed during high tide with 59 cm SLR then surge height may increase by 0.9 m for both the islands. Adaptation measures such as mangrove afforestation, cyclone shelter and embankment height were also analyzed in this study. From the model result it has been found that mangrove afforestation of 400 m and 600 m width will reduce surge height by 15 cm and 20 cm where as it reduces current speed to one-third.

2.4 Coastal Embankment Related Studies In 1960, the then East Pakistan Water and power Development Board (EPWAPDA) launched a project named `Coastal Embankment Project' to increase crop production through protection of agricultural lands from saline water inundation during normal high tides. This project covered 13765 sq. km area of which 71% were agricultural lands. The project extended from the Haribhanga River near India border to the border Makam south tip of Bangladesh stretching along the 710 km shoreline.

Three types of embankments exist in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Larger embankments are situated along the sides of Bay of Bengal and major rivers where high waves and current are expected. Interior embankments are along the bank of rivers where moderate waves and current persist. Marginal embankments are provided along the bank of small rivers and streams of minor waves and current.

19

The embankments have dimensional variations in height, width, slopes, according to their purposes. For the selection of embankment height, annual maximum water levels between 1960 and 1968 were analyzed, and a 20 year return period maximum water level during monsoon was used.

Table 2.9: Embankments under CEP Embankment Type Sea side slope Country Side slope Crest Width (m) Sea dike Interior dike Marginal dike (Source: BWDB) 1: 7 1:3 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:2 4.27 4.27 2.44 x + 1.52 x + 0.91 Crest Level (m) Set back distance (m) 76 53

x + 1.52 38 x is the design flood level

Materials from borrow-pits along the sides of the embankments were used for embankment construction. Sands and organic materials were avoided. A blanket of cohesive earth over the embankment was provided to encourage good Turfing and to prevent surface erosion where the embankment materials are not of good condition. The inner slopes and crest levels of all types of embankments were protected from erosion, due to rainfall, with the use of grass mat. Depending on the purpose, there is a variation in the sea or river facing slope protection work from wave and current erosion.

CPP-II (1992) proposed for repair and rehabilitation of the sea facing embankment of 23 selected polders and also proposed for redesign of those embankments considering possible overtopping by a 20 year return period cyclonic storm. Second Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project (BWDB, 2001) prepared a development for the entire Coastal Embankment System and a prioritized 5-year investment programme and also prepared detailed design for a number of polders. The performance of the existing coastal polders against storm surge was assessed through hydraulic modeling study. Foreshore bathymetry has also been generated for Sitakundu area based on the two dimensional BoBM results under this project. Under this project, approximately 5000 km length of coastal embankments was surveyed.
20

CHAPTER 3 STUDY AREA

3.1 Study Area In this study, three polders situated in Satkhira district at the western coast of Bangladesh have been selected as study area. These are Polder no. 15, 7/1 and 7/2. All of these polders have been damaged more or less during the cyclone AILA on 25 May, 2009. These polders are home to about 250,000 people. Shrimp culture is currently the third most important source of foreign exchanges for Bangladesh. The Embankments constructed around these polders individually are mostly earthen embankments made of silty clay or loamy clay which is the general soil type of the western coastal region of Bangladesh. Figure 3.1 represents the location of the study area on polder map.

Figure 3.1: Location of the Study Area on Polder Map (Source: IWM)

21

3.2 Polder 15 Location: Union-Gabura, Gabura, Thana-Shyamnagar, Shyamnagar, District-Satkhira. Satkhira. Population: 40000 (approx.) Gross protected area: 3441 ha Embankment Type: Interior Dyke Embankment length: 27.34 km Regulator(s): 5 Flushing Inlet: 0 Drainage Channel: 18.5 km (Source: Source: BWDB) BWDB Embankment Cross-section section Features: o Design crest level: 4.27 mPWD. o Crest width: 4.27 m (14 ft ) o Riverside Slope: 1:3 o Countryside Slope: 1:2 o Mean Riverside Ground Level: 1.45 m PWD o Mean Countryside Ground Level: 1.0 m PWD

Typical cross-section section of the embankment of Polder older 15 has been illustrated with details in Figure 3.2.

1.45 mPWD

1.0 0 mPWD

Figure 3.2: Typical cross-section cross of the embankment of Polder older 15

22

The index map of Polder older 15 has been presented in Figure igure 3.3. From the figure it is seen that Polder older 15 is surrounded by several rivers such as Kholpetua, Kobadak and Arpangasia.

Figure e 3.3: Index Map of Polder 15 (Source: BWDB, Satkhira)

23

3.3 Polder 7/1 Location: Union-Padmapukur, Padmapukur, Thana-Shyamnagar, Shyamnagar, District-Satkhira. Satkhira. Population: 30000 (approx.) Gross protected area: 3887 ha Embankment Type: Interior Dyke Embankment length: 34.21 km Regulator(s): 9 Flushing Inlet: 0 Drainage Channel: 28.5 km Embankment Cross-section section Features: o Design crest level: 4.27 mPWD o Crest width: 4.27 m (14 ft ) o Riverside Slope: 1:3 o Countryside Slope: 1:2 o Mean Riverside Ground Level: 1.65 mPWD o Mean Countryside Ground Level: 1.1 mPWD

Source: BWDB) BWDB (Source:

Typical cross-section section of the embankment of Polder Polder 7/1 has been illustrated with details in Figure 3.4.

1.65 mPWD

1.1 mPWD

Figure 3.4: Typical cross-section cros of the embankment of Polder older 7/1

24

The index map of Polder older 7/1 has been presented in Figure igure 3.5. From the Figure it is seen that Polder older 7/1 is surrounded by Kholpetua and Kobadak rivers.

Figure 3.5: Index Map of Polder 7/1 (Source: rce: BWDB, Satkhira)

25

3.4 Polder 7/2 Location: Union-Protapnogor, Protapnogor, Thana-Assasunia, Assasunia, District-Satkhira. Satkhira. Population: 125000 (Approx.) Gross Protected Area: 10486 ha Embankment Type: Interior Dyke Embankment Length: 59.59 km Regulator(s): 16 Flushing Inlet: 0 Drainage Channel: 45.1 km Embankment Cross-Section Section Features: o Design Crest Level: 4.27 mPWD. o Crest Width: 4.27 m (14 ft ) o River-side side Slope: 1:3 o Country-side side Slope: 1:2 o Mean River-side side Ground Level: 1.8 mPWD o Mean Country-side side Ground Level: 1.2 mPWD

(Source: Source: BWDB) BWDB

Typical cross-section section of the embankment of Polder older 7/2 has been illustrated with details in Figure 3.6.

1.8 mPWD

1.2 mPWD

Figure 3.6: Typical cross-section cross section of the embankment of polder 7/2

26

The index map of Polder older 7/2 has been presented in Figure igure 3.7. From the figure it is seen that Polder older 7/2 is surrounded by Morirchap, Kholpetua and Kobadak rivers.

Figure 3.7: Index Map of Polder Pol 7/2 (Source: BWDB, Satkhira)
27

A satellite image of the study area collected from Google Earth has been presented in Figure 3.8. The area within the red box shows the location of the study area in the image.

7/2

7/1

15

Figure 3.8: Study Area on Google Earth

28

CHAPTER 4 DESCRIPTION OF MODELS

4.1 General The mathematical or numerical models used in this study have been discussed in this chapter. A mathematical 1-dimensional model named HEC-RAS has been primarily used for simulation in this study. Values to be used as boundary conditions in HECRAS for simulation of the scenario considered in this study has been obtained from a numerical 2-dimensional model named MIKE-21. The simulation of MIKE-21 model has been performed by IWM (Institute of Water Modelling). Description of HECRAS has been adapted from HEC-RAS 4.0 Manual (2009), Sarker (2009) and Khan (2009) and descriptions of MIKE-21 and BoBM have been adapted from Hasan (2008) (Ref. no. 33).

4.2 HEC-RAS HEC-RAS is a computer program that models the hydraulics of water flow through natural rivers and other channels developed by Hydrologic Engineering Centre, US army corps of engineers. The model is originally developed for 1D open channel hydrodynamic analysis. It can simulate both steady and unsteady flows and includes elaborate treatment for complex channel cross-sections and structures like bridges, culverts and dams. HEC-RAS is an integrated system of software, designed for interactive use in a multi-tasking environment. The system is comprised of a graphical user interface (GUI), separate analysis components, data storage and management capabilities, graphics and reporting facilities. The HEC-RAS system contains four one-dimensional river analysis components for: 1. Steady flow water surface profile computations 2. Unsteady flow simulation 3. Movable boundary sediment transport computations; and 4. Water quality analysis

29

4.2.1 Governing Equations in HEC HEC-RAS HEC-RAS RAS uses the dynamic wave theory of the Saint-Venant Saint Venant equations which consist consi of the continuity and momentum equation to describe flow movement and equilibrium equations for sediment transport modeling. The flow is also solved by using the Preissmann four-point point scheme, with elaborate considerations of complex cross crosssectional geometry etry and numerous types of hydraulic structures.

Saint-Venant Equation:

The continuity equation 0 ..Equation 4.1

The dynamic or momentum equation Where, A = the cross-sectional sectional area of the section h = depth of flow at the section z = elevation of surface above the datum at the section v = mean velocity at the section Q = discharge at the section b = width of the top of the section x = position of the section measured from the upstream end t = time g = acceleration due to gravity = mass density of the fluid
30

..Equation 4.2

Using the Chezy expression, j, can be written as

..Equation 4.3

Where C is the Chezy C and m is i the hydraulic mean radius given by

..Equation 4.4

Mass Conservation for Water:

..Equation 4.5 4.

In which x is the local position, t is the local time, (x,t) is the local water surface elevation to a fixed horizontal datum, Q(x,t) is the local discharge or cross-sectioncross integrated flow, b(x,t) is the local surface width and q(x,t) is the local latera lateral inflow per unit length. The system has been illustrated in Figure 4.1.

Figure 4.1: Schematic channel cross-section

31

Momentum Conservation for Water:

..Equation 4.6 4.

Where, g is the gravitational accelelaration, A(x,t) is the local flow crosscross-section and P(x,t) is the local wetted perimeter. The boundary shear (x,t) is estimated from a friction model, either

..Equation 4.7 4.

In which f, C and n are the Darcy-Wiesbach, Dar Wiesbach, Chezy and Manning friction factors respectively. R = A/P is the local hydraulic radius.

4.2.2 Components of HECRAS HECRAS consists of 13 following components: a. Geometric data editor b. Steady flow data c. Steady flow analysis d. Unsteady flow data e. Unsteady flow analysis f. Quasi Unsteady flow data g. Sediment Data h. Sediment analysis i. Hydraulic design functions j. Water Quality Data k. Water Quality analysis l. Printing and Viewing results m. Help

32

Different components of HEC-RAS HEC have been shown in Figure 4.2.

Figure igure 4.2: Different Components of HEC-RAS HEC (HEC-RAS RAS Manual)

33

4.2.3 Overview of Program Capabilities HEC-RAS is designed to perform one-dimensional hydraulic calculations for a full network of natural and constructed channels. The following is a description of the major capabilities of HEC-RAS.

User Interface The user interacts with HEC-RAS through a graphical user interface (GUI). The main focus in the design of the interface was to make it easy to use the software, while still maintaining a high level of efficiency for the user. The interface provides for the following functions: o File management o Data entry and editing o River analysis o Tabulation and graphical displays of input and output data o Reporting facilities o On-line help

River Analysis Components Steady Flow Water Surface Profiles This component of the modeling system is intended for calculating water surface profiles for steady gradually varied flow. The system can handle a full network of channels, a dendritic system, or a single river reach. The steady flow component is capable of modeling subcritical, supercritical and mixed flow regime water surface profiles.

The basic computational procedure is based on the solution of the one-dimensional energy equation. Energy losses are evaluated by friction (Mannings equation) and contraction/expansion (coefficient multiplied by the change in velocity head). The momentum equation is utilized in situations where the water surface profile is rapidly varied. These situations include mixed flow regime calculations (i.e., hydraulic jumps), hydraulics of bridges and evaluating profiles at river confluences (stream junctions).

34

The effects of various obstructions such as bridges, culverts, dams, weirs and other structures in the flood plain may be considered in the computations. The steady flow system is designed for application in flood plain management and flood insurance studies to evaluate floodway encroachments. Also, capabilities are available for assessing the change in water surface profiles due to channel modifications and levees.

Special features of the steady flow component include: o Multiple plan analyses o Multiple profile computations o Multiple bridge and/or culvert opening analysis o Bridge scour analysis o Split flow optimization; and o Stable channel design and analysis

Unsteady Flow Simulation This component of the HEC-RAS modeling system is capable of simulating onedimensional unsteady flow through a full network of open channels. The unsteady flow equation solver was adapted from Dr. Robert L. Barakus UNET model. The unsteady flow component was developed primarily for subcritical flow regime calculations. However, with the release of version 3.1, the model can now perform mixed flow regime (subcritical, supercritical, hydraulic jumps and draw downs) calculations in the unsteady flow computations module.

The hydraulic calculations for cross-sections, bridges, culverts and other hydraulic structures that were developed for the steady flow component were incorporated into the unsteady flow module.

Special features of the unsteady flow component include: o Dam break analysis o Levee breaching and overtopping o Pumping stations o Navigation dam operations; and o Pressurized pipe systems
35

Sediment Transport/Movable Boundary Computations This component of the modeling system is intended for the simulation of onedimensional sediment transport/movable boundary calculations resulting from scour and deposition over moderate time periods (typically years, although applications to single flood events are possible).

The sediment transport potential is computed by grain size fraction, thereby allowing the simulation of hydraulic sorting and armoring. Major features include the ability o model a full network of streams, channel dredging, various levee and encroachment alternatives, and the use of several different equations for the computation of sediment transport.

The model is designed to simulate long-term trends of scour and deposition in a stream channel that might result from modifying the frequency and duration of the water discharge and stage, or modifying the channel geometry. This system can be used to: o Evaluate deposition in reservoirs o Design channel contractions required to maintain navigation depths o Predict the influence of dredging on the rate of deposition o Estimate maximum possible scour during large flood events; and o Evaluate sedimentation in fixed channels

Water Quality Analysis This component of the modeling system is intended to allow the user to perform riverine water quality analyses. The current version of HEC-RAS can perform detailed temperature analysis and transport of a limited number of water quality constituents (Algae, Dissolved Oxygen, Carbonaceuos Biological Oxygen Demand, Dissolved Organic Phosphorus, Dissolved Ammonium Nitrate, Dissolved Nitrite Nitrogen and Dissolved Organic Nitrogen).

36

Data Storage and Management Data storage is accomplished through the use of flat files (ASCII and binary). User input data are stored in fat files under separate categories of project, plan, geometry, steady flow, unsteady flow, quasi steady flow, sediment flow and water quality information. Output data is predominantly stored in separate binary files. Data can be transferred between HEC-RAS and other programs by utilizing the HEC-DSS.

Data management is accomplished through the user interface. The modeler is requested to enter a single filename for the project being developed. Once the project filename is entered, all other files are automatically created and named by the interface needed. The interface provides for renaming, moving and deletion of files on a project-by-project basis.

Graphics and Reporting Graphics include X-Y plots of the river system schematic, cross-sections, profiles, rating curves, hydrographs and many other hydraulic variables. A three-dimensional plot of multiple cross-sections is also provided. Tabular output is available. Users can select from pre-defined tables or develop their own customized tables. All graphical and tabular output can be displayed on the screen, sent directly o a printer (or plotter), or passed through the Windows Clipboard to other software, such as a word-processor or spreadsheet.

How to perform an analysis o Starting a New Project o Entering Geometric Data o Entering Steady Flow Data o Performing the Hydraulic Calculations o Viewing Results o Printing Graphics and Tables o Exiting the Program

37

Performing a Steady Flow Analysis o Entering and Editing Steady Flow Data o Performing Steady Flow Calculations

Performing an Unsteady Flow Analysis o Entering and Editing Unsteady Flow Data o Performing Unsteady Flow Calculations o Calibration of Unsteady Flow Models o Model Accuracy, Stability and Sensitivity

Viewing Results The current version of the program allows the user to view cross sections, water surface profiles, general profiles, rating curves, hydrographs, X-Y-Z perspective plots, detailed tabular output at a single location and summary tabular output at many cross sections. Users also have the ability to develop their own output tables.

Contents o Cross Sections, Profiles and Rating Curves o X-Y-Z Perspective Plots o Tabular Output o Viewing Results From the River System Schematic o Stage and Flow Hydrographs o Viewing Computational Level Output for Unsteady Flow o Viewing Ice Information o Viewing Data Contained in an HEC-DSS File o Exporting Results to HEC-DSS

4.3 MIKE-21 MIKE-21 is a numerical 2-dimensional model developed by DHI Water and Environment. MIKE-21 has a number of modules for different purpose and each module has different sets of equations. To provide the boundary conditions to be used in simulation for the scenario considered in this study, hydrodynamic and cyclone module of MIKE-21 have been used by IWM. The governing equations for these modules have been described in the next section.
38

4.3.1 Governing Equations in Hydrodynamic Module The governing equations used in MIKE-21 in solving hydraulic problems in coastal areas are:

Conservation of Mass Equation:

p q + + =0 t x y

..Equation 4.8

Conservation of Momentum Equation: The momentum equation in the x-direction is given by:

pq p h h + gh + f + + t x y x 2

p 2

p2 + q2 h
2

1 xy h h p a q a C wWW x + =0 x y .Equation 4.9

The momentum equation in the y-direction is given by:

q 2 pq q h h + gh + f + + t y x y 2

p2 + q2 h
2

1 yx h h p a + p a C wWW y + =0 y x ...Equation 4.10

Where, p and q t h g flux in x and y directions respectively (m3/s/m). time (s), x and y (m) are Cartesian Co ordinate (s). water depth (m). acceleration due to gravity (9.81 m2/s) . sea surface elevation (m). air and water density respectively (kg /m3), wind friction factor = 0.0008 + 0.000065W in accordance with Wu (1982). W

w & a

Cw

wind speed (m/s). Coriolis parameter atmospheric pressure (kg/m/s2).

Pa

39

4.3.2 Governing Equations in Cyclone Module The Cyclone module of MIKE-21 has been used to generate the pressure and wind distributions all over the Bay of Bengal. Cyclone Model is normally described by relatively few parameters relate to pressure field, which is imposed to the water surface and a wind field which is acting as a drag force on the water body through a wind shear stress description. The wind fields consist of a rotational and a translational component.

At a distance R from the centre of the cyclone the rotational wind speed Vr is given as
Vr = Vm ( R 7 R ) exp( 7(1 )) Rm Rm R )) Rm for R< Rm ............................... Equation 4.11

Vr = Vm exp(C (1

for

R> Rm

............................... Equation 4.12

Where R and Rm are in km and C is given as C = 0.0025 Rm + 0.05 ............................... Equation 4.13

C determines the shape of wind distribution for R>Rm.

And translational component Vt is given as

Vt = 0.5V f ( cos )

............................... Equation 4.14

Where, is the angle between the radial arm and the line of maximum winds. The

total wind speed is

V = V r + Vt

And finally, the pressure at particular location is given as

P = Pc + ( Pn Pc ) exp(

Rm ) R

............................... Equation 4.15

Where, P is pressure at radius R, Pc is central pressure, Pn is neutral pressure.

40

Two different hydrodynamic models have been used by IWM for the study. Brief descriptions of the models have been given in the next section. 4.3.3 The Bay of Bengal Model A Bay of Bengal Model (BoBM) has been used to simulate the cyclonic events for each scenario considered in the study. Water levels obtained for each scenario at the mouth of selected rivers downstream to the study area are then used as downstream boundary conditions in the other MIKE-21 based hydrodynamic model, South-West Region Model. BoBM is a 2D one layer MIKE-21 based hydrodynamic model. The model covers the northern part of the Bay of Bengal from latitude 17000/00// to the coast of Bangladesh. The total model has been updated up to 2008.

Size of the model (Model Grid) The base model is a three way nested model and the resolutions are 5400 m, 1800 m and 600 m. The Meghna Estuary is resolved on a 600 m grid. Extent of models has been shown in the Figure 4.3 and information on the grid is given in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2.

India

India

India

Chandpur

Fine Model Intermediate Model

Bay of Bengal
Coarse Model

Vishakhapatnam

Gwa Bay

Figure 4.3: Model domain of three nested model (Source: IWM)

41

Table 4.1: Model grid specification Model Coarse grid Origin (degree) Lon = 84.64 Lat = 18.91 Intermediate grid Fine grid Lon = 86.75 Lat = 20.81 Grid Spacing (m) Dx = 5400 Dy = 5400 Dx = 1800 Dy = 1800 396357 321156 Grid Numbers 18093 Length and Width 972km 502km 578km 281km 238km 214km

Lon = 89.9712 Dx = 600 Lat = 21.3393 Dy = 600

Table 4.2: Relative grid positions Model Coarse grid Intermediate grid Fine grid (0,0) In Fine Grid (0,0) (174,31) In Intermediate Grid In Coarse Grid (0,0) (42,38) (100,48)

Bathymetry Generation Bathymetry is the bottom topography of a river or a sea. As the model area is a huge one, it is not possible to survey all the area at a time. To make the bathymetry, bed level data has been collected from different sources of different time. Table 4.3 shows the source of bed level data utilized for generation of bathymetry of the model.

Table 4.3: Land-water data used for generating the bathymetry Model component Coarse grid Bathymetry Admiralty maps Intermediate Admiralty grid maps
42

Type of Data Source CSPS Land Source Land-water boundary Admiralty maps

CSPS

Admiralty maps

Model component Fine grid Bathymetry Admiralty maps FAP 5B MES I MES I

Type of Data Bathymetry DEM (1952- CSPS 64) CSPS FINMAP (1990) KJDRP MES II (1997) IWM LANDSAT 1998 Bathymetry LANDSAT 1996

Survey (1997) MES II survey MES II (1998, 99) BIWTA maps

In addition polder levels and alignment surveyed under 2nd CERP have been used.

Bed Resistance In shallow areas bed friction is important and can effectively be used to adjust the amplitude of tides. Bed friction is defined by the Manning number, M (m1/3/s). The map of the Manning used during the calibration period has been shown in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4: Manning number distribution

Areas with depths Less than 1000 -1000 to 200 -200 to 50 -50 to 20 -20 to 3 -3 to 1 -1 to 1 Greater than 1

Manning Number 60 70 80 90 100 90 80 25

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Eddy Viscosity The eddy viscosity E has been specified in the model as a time-varying function of the local gradients in the velocity field. This formulation is based on the so-called Smagorinsky concept, which yields:

E =C

2 s

1 U U V U + + + x 2 x y y

In the model only the value of Cs has to be specified and the recommended value is 0.2 to 1.0. In this research work 0.3 has been used.

Boundary Generation The model has a wide, deep and open ocean boundary in the south situated along the line extending from Vishakhapatnam in India to Gwa Bay in Myanmar (Figure 4.3). Predictions on water levels have been made for these two extreme points along this boundary based on tidal constituents. The water level along the open boundary was obtained by interpolating the two predicted water levels. Tidal constituents that were used to predict water level for these two stations have been shown in the Table 4.5.

Table 4.5 Tidal constituents for Vishakhapatnam and Gwa Bay Tidal constituents M2 S2 K1 O1 f4 Vishakhapatnam Phase (Degree) 239 274 336 320 Magnitude (m) 0.48 0.21 0.11 0.04 Phase (Degree) 266 304 330 338 180 Gwa Bay Magnitude (m) 0.69 0.32 0.14 0.05 0.193

(Source: Admiralty Tide Table)

To the north the model has a narrow, shallow, open boundary in the Meghna River. The boundary is located at Chandpur and observed water level at Chandpur has been used as north boundary of the model.
44

Calibration and Validation of Bay of Bengal model The existing BoBM model has been calibrated and validated against the measured water level and discharge data. The model has been calibrated against water level at Charchenga and discharge at North Hatiya during 2006. Calibration plots have been shown in the Figure 4.4 and Figure 4.5.

Discharge Location

Measured Simulated

Figure 4.4: Calibration against discharge data at North Hatiya during 2006

Measured Simulated

Location of water level

Figure 4.5: Calibration against water level data at Charchenga during 2006

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The model has been validated against discharge at West Shahbazpur Channel and at East Shahbazpur Channel during December 2007. The validation plots have been shown in the Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7.

Measured Simulated

Discharge Location

Figure 4.6: Validation against discharge data at West Shahbazpur Channel during December 2007

Measured Simulated

Discharge Location

Figure 4.7: Validation against Discharge data at East Shahbazpur Channel during December 2007

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4.3.2 The South-West West Region Model The South-West West Region Model has been used in this study to obtain both upstream and downstream boundary conditions to be used in HEC-RAS HEC RAS for the simulation of each scenario under consideration of the study. The model is a 2D one layer MIKE MIKE-21 based hydrodynamic model. The water levels obtained from the simulation of BoB Model at the mouth of the selected rivers downstream to the study area has been used as downstream boundary conditions in the simulation simul of the South-West Region Model. Normal discharges at the upstream locations of the model area have been used as upstream boundary conditions for simulation. Figure 4.8 presents the map of South-West West Region Model.

Figure 4.8: 4.8 South-West Region Model (Source: IWM)

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CHAPTER 5 METHODOLOGY

5.1 Data Collection In this study geometric data such as cross-sections and hydrometric data such as discharge and water level have been collected from IWM. A shape file of the major rivers of Bangladesh has been collected from the Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET in order to generate the streamline co-ordinates required for the schematization of river system surrounding the study area in the HEC-RAS based numerical modeling. A brief description of all the data used in this study is presented in the following section.

5.1.1 Geometric Data Cross-section data of rivers surrounding the study area such as Kobadak, Kholpetua, and Morirchap reaches as well as cross-section data of other rivers that are connected to the rivers surrounding the study area such as Betna, Galghasia, Kalagachi and Arpangasia have been collected from IWM. These data include bank to bank width during the high tide and elevation in meter with respect to PWD datum. Plot of the cross section data have been provided in Appendix-B. The survey period of collected cross-section data has been presented in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1: Survey period of collected cross-section data River Kobadak Kholpetua Galghasia Morirchap Betna Arpangasia Kalagachi Survey Period 2003 1990-1992 1990-1992 1998 1998 2000 2000 Survey Organization IWM SWMC SWMC SWMC SWMC SWMC SWMC

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5.1.2 Discharge and Water Level Data Discharge and water level data have been collected from IWM which are generated specially for this study. These data are generated using two 2-D hydrodynamic models based on MIKE-21 named as the Bay of Bengal Model and the South-West Region Model. The discharge data of Kobadak, Betna and Galghasia and the water level data of Arpangasia River near the Kobadak-Kholpetua-Arpangasia junction, Kalagachi River near the Kholpetua-Kalagachi junction and Morirchap River near Morirchap-Kholpetua junction have been used as boundary conditions. Both the discharge data and water level data began from May 24, 2009 at 9.00 am to May 26, 2009 at 9.00 am and include reading at an interval of 30 minutes. Plotting of discharge data (flow hydrograph) and water level data (stage hydrograph) have been provided in Appendix-C.

5.1.3 Generation of Streamline Co-ordinates Since the co-ordinates of the river streamline were not available so it has been generated. A shape file of the major rivers of Bangladesh has been opened in ArcView GIS 3.3 and then zoomed up to the study area of this study. The river reaches surrounding the study area such as Kobadak, Kholpetua, Morirchap, Betna, Galghasia, Kalagachi and Arpangasia have been selected using select feature tool and a new shape file has been created. Thus the shape file of river reaches surrounding the study area has been obtained. A new point theme has been created and points have been drawn over a river streamline in the new shape file by selecting point from toolbar. All the points have been selected using select feature tool. The co-ordinates (based on Bangladesh Transverse Mercator (BTM) projection) will be font in the attributed table of the point theme file. New point themes have been created again and the process has been repeated for each individual river reaches of the new shape file. The co-ordinates then have been exported to an excel file. Co-ordinates of the river reaches have been provided in Appendix-A.

The shape file of river reaches surrounding the study area has been presented in Figure 5.1. Figure 5.2 and Figure 5.3 represent examples of point theme of study reach and attribute table of point theme of study reach.

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Figure 5.1: Shape file f of the river system surrounding the study area

Figure 5.2: Point theme of study reach

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Figure 5.3: Attribute table of point theme of study reach

5.2 Field Visit A field visit was conducted in June, 2010 to assess the performance of coastal embankments of the selected polders (Polder no. 15, 7/1 and 7/2) during cyclone AILA and to observe the existing condition of the embankments. Information on damages to the polders due to cyclone AILA was gathered gathered from the local people and Satkhira BWDB staffs and field engineers. Three main steps were followed during the field visit. These are: 1. Observation of the existing condition of the embankments of selected polders. The existing condition of the embankm embankments ents such as crest level, crest width, slopes and breaches were observed. 2. Group discussion with the local people. A group discussion with the local people was held in order to be acquainted with the real situation in the selected polders during cyclone AILA such as the estimated surge height above the embankment crest level and area of inundation as well as the post postAILA situation. 3. Interview with Satkhira BWDB engineers. Further information on damages to the polders due to cyclone AILA and opinions on the e causes of failure of the embankments were collected from the engineers of BWDB, Satkhira zone.
51

5.3 HEC-RAS 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling After collecting and generating all the necessary data a 1D Hydrodynamic Model has been developed using HEC-RAS. The steps of HEC-RAS 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling is shown as a flow chart in Figure 5.4.

Schematization of River System (Kobadak-Morirchap-Khalpetua River System) and Editing the Junction Data

Entering and Interpolating Cross-Section Data

Entering Boundary Conditions and Initial Flow data (Flow Hydrographs at upstream boundaries and Stage Hydrographs at downstream boundaries)

Fix the Simulation Period and Run the Hydrodynamic Model (Unsteady Flow Simulation)

Model Output and Result Analysis

Figure 5.4: Steps of HEC-RAS 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling

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5.3.1 Schematization of River System Schematization of river system surrounding the study area (Kobadak (Kobadak-MorirchapKhalpetua River System) System has been done by entering the streamline co co-ordinates through Reach Invert Line Tables under GIS Tools in Geometric Data Editor. 5 junctions have been considered. These are Kobadak-Morirchap Kobadak Morirchap Junction, Betna BetnaMorirchap Junction, Morirchap-Khalpetua Morirchap Junction, Galghasia-Khalpetua Khalpetua Junction and Kobadak-Khalpetua-Arpangasia Arpangasia Junction. Due to unavailability of cross cross-section data or negligible potential to affect the model result, other river reaches actually connected to the river system has not been considered. Figure 5.5 and Figure 5.6 represent nt examples of entering streamline co-ordinates co ordinates and editing of junction data respectively. The Schematized river system surrounding the study area has been presented in Figure 5.7.

Figure 5.5: Entering streamline co-ordinates co

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Figure 5.6: Editing junction data

Figure 5.7: Schematized river system

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5.3.2 Entering and Interpolating Cross-Section Data The cross-section station, elevation, downstream reach lengths (left bank, right bank and channel chainage), mannings n values, main channel bank stations and contraction or expansion co-efficient have been entered within Geometric Data Editor. Cross-sections numbers are ordered from downstream to upstream within a reach. In a particular cross-section data, elevation has been given with respect to PWD datum in meter, mannings n values has been considered 0.21~0.51 and contraction and expansion co-efficient have been considered as .01 and .03 respectively. The cross-section data have been interpolated at an interval of 200 m through XS Interpolation under Tools in Geometric Data Editor. Figure 5.8 and Figure 5.9 represent examples of entering and interpolating cross-section data. The view on Geometric Data Editor after interpolation has been presented in Figure 5.10.

Figure 5.8: Entering cross-section data

55

Figure 5.9: Interpolating cross-section cross data

Figure 5.10: View on Geometric Data Editor after interpolating cross-section cross section data
56

5.3.3 Calibration of the Model The model has been calibrated against the measured water level at Kobadak during 2009. Calibration plot has been shown in figure 5.11.
4

Water Level (mPWD)

3 2 1 0 Measured Simulated

-1 -2 5/23/2009 5/24/2009 19:12 5/24/2009 0:00 5/24/2009 4:48 5/24/2009 9:36 5/24/2009 14:24 5/25/2009 19:12 0:00

Time

Figure 5.11: Calibration against water level at Kobadak during 2009

5.3.4 Development of Scenario The scenario for this study has been developed considering a cyclonic event with the magnitudes of cyclone SIDR along the track of cyclone AILA, maximum predicted sea level rise (1.5 m) by the year 2100 according to the Copenhagen Summit, March 2009 and high tide. The wind speed of cyclone SIDR has been originally estimated as 225 kmph which is equivalent to that of a cyclone with a return period of 20 years. But according to the 4th IPCC Report if temperature is increased by 2oC wind speed will be increased by 5% and if temperature is increased by 4oC wind speed will be increased by 10%. Thus considering temperature would increase by 4oC in the year 2100 the wind speed of cyclone SIDR has been considered as 248 kmph in the simulation of MIKE-21 based BoB Model by IWM for this study. The option has been furnished in table 5.2.

Table 5.2: Scenario for model simulation Scenario Track of AILA + SIDR + 1.5 m SLR + High Tide

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5.3.5 Entering Boundary Conditions for Individual Scenarios Stage hydrographs at 3 points and flow hydrographs at 3 points have been entered as boundary conditions as input data along with initial flows at 12 points points for the selected scenario through Unsteady Flow Data Editor. Figure 5.12 represents different steps of entering boundary conditions and initial flows. Figure 5.13 illustrates the locations of application of boundary conditions.

Figure 5.12: Different steps of entering boundary conditions and initial flows

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Flow Hydrograph

Flow Hydrograph

Stage Hydrograph

Flow Hydrograph

Stage Hydrograph

Stage Hydrograph

Figure 5.13: : Locations of application of boundary conditions

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5.3.6 Performing Unsteady Flow Simulation After entering boundary conditions and initial flows for a particular scenario, unsteady flow simulation has been performed for 48-hr simulation period starting from 24 May 2009 at 09:00 AM to 26 May 2009 at 09:00 AM. Instruction of the programs to run has been provided. The programs were Geometry Preprocessor, Unsteady Flow Simulation and Post Processor. All time intervals under Computation Settings have been set to 1 hour. Then the Compute button has been clicked to run the model. Figure 5.13 represents an example of performing unsteady flow simulation.

Figure 5.14: Performing Unsteady Flow Simulation

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5.3.7 Model Output and Result Analysis After the computation the HEC-RAS model provided output as stage hydrograph, water surface profile and detail output table at individual cross-sections. The result has been analyzed to obtain the maximum water surface elevation around any individual polder for a particular scenario that has been then compared with the embankment crest level of that particular polder to assess the adequacy of the existing embankment height. In case of finding inadequacy of the existing embankment height, modification of crest level of the embankment of the polder has been proposed by adding free board as recommended by BWDB under CEP.

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CHAPTER 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

6.1 Performance of embankments of the selected polders during cyclone AILA During the field visit the existing condition of the embankments of the selected polders was found to very poor. In many parts of the embankments the crest width has been decreased to about 1 m only instead of 4.27 m. The riverside slopes of the embankments were out of proper shape due to severe erosion as well due to the impact of cyclone AILA. The country side slopes were rather in better shape. The height of the embankments has been proved to be inadequate to resist storm surges like AILA as shown in Table 6.1. The area of inundation indicates to the inadequate height of the existing embankments and the number of breaches proves the weakness of the embankments to resist storm surge and to survive high velocity flow.

Table 6.1: Damages to the selected polders due to cyclone Aila Polder No. 15 7/1 7/2 Area Inundated 100% 70% 20% Breach Points 10 5 2 Regulator(s) Damaged 1 0 1 Estimated Surge Height Above Embankment Crest Level 1.5 m 1.0 m 0.0-1.0 m

Some of the breaches in the embankments have been repaired shortly after the cyclone Aila. In other cases ring embankments were constructed around the breaches inward the country side of the breached embankments. The ring embankments were typically built with the crest level at 4.27 mPWD, crest width of 2.5 m and a slope of 1:2 on both sides of the embankment.

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According to the engineers of BWDB, Satkhira Zone, such damages to the polders during cyclone AILA occurred due to the following reasons:

AILA took place during high tide. This made the overtopping easier and overtopping caused the breaching of the embankments.

The embankments were never built to protect the polder against storm surges. These polders can protect the normal tide only.

The total length of the embankment of a polder should be re-sectioned in every 4 years. But very few parts of the embankments were re-sectioned since 2000.

The workmanship during earlier re-sectioning works might have not been done properly.

Numerous boring of pipes through the embankments for shrimp culture caused undermining and erosion of the embankments.

Again according to the Satkhira BWDB engineers an overall design modification of the embankments of the polders considering climate change and sea level rise in future is very necessary and should be implemented as soon as possible. These embankments have been constructed during the 1960s which served at a highly satisfactory level for many years but recent climate change conditions and sea level rise have made these embankments inadequate to protect the polders from storm surges. It has been recommended by the engineers that the height of the embankments should be raised by atleast a meter and the crest width should be doubled.

Figure 6.1, Figure 6.2, and Figure 6.3 illustrate the breach points of the embankments and area of inundation of individual polders due to cyclone AILA. From the figures it has been found that the eastern side of the polders experienced more damages than the western side. Images from the study area taken during field visit have been presented in figure 6.4.

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Breach Point of Embankment Inundated Area

Figure 6.1: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 15 due to cyclone AILA

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Breach Point of Embankment Inundated Area

Figure 6.2: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 7/1 due to cyclone AILA

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Breach Point of Embankment Inundated Area

Figure 6.3: Illustration of damages to Polder no. 7/2 due to cyclone AILA

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Damaged Embankment

Damaged Permanent Protection Work

67

Embankment Repairing Work

Re-sectioned Embankment

68

Temporary Protection Work

Damaged Ring Embankment Figure 6.4: Images from the study area during field visit
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6.2 Adequacy of the existing embankment height The adequacy of the existing embankment height of the selected polders has been assessed by analyzing the results of the HEC-RAS based 1-D hydrodynamic modeling. Maximum water level found from model output around individual polders for the scenario considered in this study has been presented in Table 6.2.

Table 6.2: Maximum water level around individual polders Scenario Polder no. Track of AILA + SIDR + 1.5 m SLR + High Tide Maximum Water Level (mPWD) 15 7/1 7/2 8.63 8.69 8.82 Embankment Crest Level (mPWD) 4.27 4.27 4.27 Inadequate Inadequate Inadequate Remarks

From Table 6.2 it has been found that embankments of all the three polders will be overtopped for the considered scenario and thus the embankment height of each of the selected polders are inadequate against the scenario considering simultaneous impact of predicted sea level rise and storm surge at high tide.

Figure 6.5, Figure 6.6 and Figure 6.7 present the Stage Hydrograph, maximum water level and detailed output table at a cross-section respectively around Polder 15 due to SIDR along the track of AILA at high tide with 1.5 m SLR.

Figure 6.8, Figure 6.9 and Figure 6.10 present the Stage Hydrograph, maximum water level and detailed output table at a cross-section respectively around Polder 7/1 due to SIDR along the track of AILA at high tide with 1.5 m SLR.

Figure 6.11, Figure 6.12 and Figure 6.13 present the Stage Hydrograph, maximum water level and detailed output table at a cross-section respectively around Polder 7/2 due to SIDR along the track of AILA at high tide with 1.5 m SLR.
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Figure 6.5: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

71

Figure 6.6: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

72

Figure 6.7: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 15 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide
73

Figure 6.8: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

74

Figure 6.9: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

75

Figure 6.10: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 7/1 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide
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Figure 6.11: Stage Hydrograph at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

77

Figure 6.12: Maximum water level at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide

78

Figure 6.13: Detailed output table at a cross-section around Polder 7/2 during SIDR along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR and at high tide
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The criteria for fixing the crest level of an interior dyke is as followed: Design crest level of dyke = Design water level + Free board

The design water level corresponding to 20 years return period has been calculated from the model. According to the Table 2.9 a free board of 0.91 m should be provided for an interior dyke. As all the embankments considered in this study are interior dykes the design crest level of the embankments of the selected polders should be as presented in Table 6.3.

Table 6.3: Design crest level of the embankments of selected polders Polder No. Design Water Level (mPWD) 15 7/1 7/2 8.63 8.69 8.82 Free Board (m) 0.91 0.91 0.91 Design Crest Level (mPWD) 9.54 9.60 9.73

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CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1 Conclusions The coastal zone of Bangladesh is very much vulnerable to cyclonic storm surge because of geographical setting and sea level rise due to global warming will be the additional threat to this area. According to 4th IPCC report both intensity and frequency of storm surge will be increased in the Bay of Bengal in the coming future. Considering all of these, Bangladesh coastal area will be under severe threat if no remedial measures are taken immediately.

In this study the performance of coastal embankments of polder no. 15, 7/1 and 7/2 during the cyclone Aila has been assessed through field visit. It has been found that these embankments constructed during the 1960s have now been unable to protect the polders from the impact of storm surge. Climate change and associated sea level rise will make the embankments more inadequate to resist storm surges.

From mathematical modeling it has been found that embankment height of the polders selected for this study are not sufficient to resist the simultaneous impact of SLR and cyclonic storm surge associated with high tide. In this study SIDR has been selected as cyclonic storm as it is the most devastating than other historical cyclonic storm and also because the original wind speed of SIDR (225 kmph) corresponds to that of a cyclone with a return period of 20 years (223 kmph).

According to the 4th IPCC Report if temperature is increased by 4oC wind speed will be increased by 10%. Thus considering temperature would increase by 4oC in the year 2100 the wind speed of cyclone SIDR has been considered as 248 kmph in mathematical modeling. The cyclone has been considered to travel along the track of AILA with 1.5 m SLR at high tide.

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In case of polder no. 15 surge height has been found to be 4.36 m above the crest level of existing embankment where as in polder no. 7/1 it would be 4.42 m and in polder no. 7/2 it would be 4.55 m. So it is essential to raise the embankment height with proper redesign to protect the people and their livelihood inside the polders.

Finally the crest level for the selected polders has been calculated. In case of polder no. 15 crest level is 9.64 mPWD. Again in case of polder no. 7/1 crest level is 9.8 mPWD and in case of polder no. 7/2 crest level is 9.93 mPWD. In all cases the suggested crest level is much higher than the existing one and all the suggested height are for the year 2100 considering 1.5 m sea level rise and normal high tide.

It is extremely important to reconsider the existing coastal infrastructure based on this and redesign existing coastal embankments to rehabilitate these structures and make it climate resilient. The risk of sea level rise and cyclonic storm surge are to be considered for future planning and design of coastal structure. Proper adaptation measures both structural and non-structural are to be planned in order to find a climate resilient coastal environment for coastal people and their livelihood security.

7.2 Recommendations Similar studies can be carried out in the other polders of the coastal zone and the results can be compared with the results of this research work.

Only the extreme climate change scenario has been considered in this study. Inclusion of more scenarios will enhance the quality of the study.

Change in bathymetry by the year 2100 has not been considered in this study. Analysis based on change in bathymetry by the selected year will provide more accurate results.

Bathymetry data of 1990-2003 has been used in this study. Inclusion of more recent bathymetry will improve the reliability of the model results of the present study.

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Climate

Change

&

Sustainable

Development, Report, No. 21104 BD, Dhaka. 33. Hasan, M.M., 2008, Impact of Sea Level Rise and Cyclonic Surge on Selected Coastal Islands of Bangladesh, M.Sc. Engineering thesis by Md. Mobassarul Hasan, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 34. Khan, M.R.H., 2009, Floodplain Inundation Mapping of KaligangaDhaleswari River Basin, B.Sc. Engineering thesis by Md. Rakibul Hassan Khan, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
86

35. Sarker, T, 2009, Effect of River Contraction on Siltation Rate of Mongla Port Using HECRAS, B.Sc. Engineering thesis by Tonmoy Sarker, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 36. HEC-RAS 4.0 Manual, 2009 (www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras). 37. Google Earth.

87

Appendix-A Streamline Co-ordinates

88

Co-ordinates of Kholpetua River

X_COORD 416640.04964 416667.28903 416754.45509 416819.82964 416885.20418 416917.89145 416917.89145 416912.44357 416928.78721 416928.78721 416917.89145 416890.65206 416885.20418 416874.30842 416868.86054 416830.72539 416721.76782 416580.12297 416443.92600 416340.41631 416269.59389 416204.21934 416149.74055 416117.05328 416127.94904 416187.87570 416302.28116 416531.09206 416759.90297 416950.57873 417010.50539 417015.95327 416999.60963 416950.57873 416857.96479 416787.14236 416765.35085 416776.24661 416803.48600 416830.72539 416852.51691 416874.30842 Y_COORD 494424.77869 494310.37324 494103.35385 493912.67809 493672.97143 493422.36901 493422.36901 493220.79749 493024.67386 492883.02901 492648.77023 492523.46902 492381.82417 492256.52296 492136.66963 492027.71205 491902.41084 491766.21387 491608.22539 491455.68479 491335.83146 491243.21752 491145.15570 491025.30237 490900.00116 490791.04358 490698.42965 490518.64965 490371.55692 490240.80783 490137.29814 490050.13208 489919.38299 489679.67632 489412.73027 489194.81512 489025.93088 488873.39027 488699.05815 488573.75694 488464.79937 488350.39392 X_COORD 416852.51691 416841.62115 416836.17327 416830.72539 416836.17327 416841.62115 416868.86054 416906.99570 416972.37024 417032.29691 417086.77569 417108.56721 417130.35872 417119.46297 417103.11933 417086.77569 417059.53630 417064.98418 417184.83751 417304.69084 417348.27387 417380.96114 417402.75266 417429.99205 417473.57508 417506.26236 417615.21993 417713.28175 417794.99993 417909.40538 418105.52901 418279.86113 418443.29750 418590.39022 418786.51385 418819.20113 418830.09688 418835.54476 418835.54476 418813.75325 418764.72234 418721.13931 Y_COORD 488208.74907 487898.21998 487571.34726 487304.40120 487162.75636 487037.45514 486901.25818 486748.71757 486585.28121 486449.08424 486334.67879 486242.06485 486127.65940 486007.80607 485882.50486 485773.54728 485610.11092 485517.49698 485332.26910 485201.52002 485108.90608 484929.12608 484787.48123 484651.28426 484449.71275 484362.54669 484231.79760 484139.18366 484046.56973 483932.16427 483746.93640 483567.15640 483398.27216 483256.62731 483060.50368 482978.78550 482837.14065 482717.28732 482613.77762 482455.78914 482319.59217 482210.63460 X_COORD 418633.97325 418557.70295 418437.84962 418323.44416 418214.48659 418089.18538 418012.91508 417974.77993 417942.09265 417936.64477 417931.19690 417909.40538 417871.27023 417822.23932 417800.44781 417784.10417 417794.99993 417833.13508 417903.95750 418023.81083 418209.03871 418475.98477 418770.17022 419015.32476 419222.34415 419282.27082 419298.61445 419255.03142 419173.31324 419042.56415 418857.33628 418655.76477 418421.50598 418241.72598 417958.43629 417745.96902 417549.84539 417348.27387 417184.83751 417070.43206 416999.60963 416923.33933 Y_COORD 482096.22914 482014.51096 481911.00127 481840.17884 481747.56491 481644.05521 481529.64976 481431.58794 481175.53764 480990.30976 480772.39462 480581.71886 480401.93886 480189.47159 480004.24372 479846.25523 479710.05826 479595.65281 479486.69524 479350.49827 479203.40554 479050.86494 478920.11585 478805.71040 478642.27404 478538.76434 478386.22374 478260.92252 478130.17344 478026.66374 477868.67526 477710.68677 477552.69829 477449.18860 477340.23102 477280.30435 477225.82557 477144.10739 477051.49345 476942.53587 476817.23466 476670.14194

89

X_COORD 416852.51691 417549.84539 417348.27387 417184.83751 417070.43206 416999.60963 416923.33933 416852.51691 416879.75630 416956.02660 417059.53630 417130.35872 417163.04600 417190.28539 417222.97266 417321.03448 417495.36660 417745.96902 418007.46720 418296.20477 418623.07749 418917.26294 419178.76112 419434.81142 419908.77687 420072.21323 420251.99323 420202.96232 420066.76535 419914.22475 419652.72657 419358.54112 419091.59506 418846.44052 418628.52537 418590.39022 418546.80719 418508.67204 418530.46355 418650.31689 418753.82658 418851.88840

Y_COORD 476512.15345 477225.82557 477144.10739 477051.49345 476942.53587 476817.23466 476670.14194 476512.15345 476272.44679 475831.16861 475324.51589 474817.86317 474327.55409 473957.09833 473793.66197 473564.85107 473401.41471 473297.90501 473276.11349 473314.24865 473412.31046 473526.71592 473657.46500 473728.28743 473744.63106 473657.46500 473352.38380 472992.82380 472660.50320 472437.14017 472175.64199 471979.51836 471821.52988 471636.30200 471434.73049 471309.42928 471129.64928 470988.00443 470840.91171 470601.20504 470394.18565 470181.71838

X_COORD 418939.05446 419031.66840 419107.93870 419173.31324 419211.44840 419331.30173 419429.36354 419478.39445 419532.87324 419609.14354 419723.54899 419805.26718 419886.98536 419985.04717 420066.76535 420094.00475 420137.58778 420208.41020 420306.47202 420382.74232 420475.35626 420600.65747 420824.02050 421085.51868 421357.91261 421581.27564 421837.32594 422066.13685 422256.81260 422665.40350 423014.06774 423389.97137 423760.42713 424114.53924 424446.85985 424708.35802 424844.55499 424871.79439 424871.79439 424724.70166 424517.68227 424316.11076

Y_COORD 470029.17778 469876.63717 469756.78384 469631.48263 469468.04627 469032.21597 468639.96870 468394.81416 468274.96083 468116.97235 467817.33902 467583.08023 467327.02993 466989.26145 466733.21115 466613.35782 466428.12994 466232.00631 466046.77843 465932.37298 465812.51965 465681.77056 465501.99056 465349.44995 465186.01359 465049.81663 464929.96329 464826.45360 464766.52693 464668.46511 464646.67360 464668.46511 464701.15239 464755.63117 464695.70451 464608.53845 464477.78936 464281.66573 464080.09421 463905.76209 463775.01300 463633.36816

X_COORD 424092.74773 423874.83258 423673.26107 423493.48107 423259.22229 423155.71259 423073.99441 422954.14108 422839.73562 422801.60047 422763.46532 422752.56956 422763.46532 422796.15259 422807.04835 422834.28774 422850.63138 422845.18350 422796.15259 422676.29926 422589.13320 422489.44305 422452.93623 422338.53078 422262.26048 422213.22957 422196.88593 422267.70836 422436.59260 422610.92472 422710.25190 422856.07926 423155.71259 425187.77135 425596.36226 426168.38952 426696.83376 427263.41315 427726.48284 428178.65677 428412.91556 428663.51798

Y_COORD 463524.41058 463420.90089 463317.39119 463241.12089 463137.61119 463072.23665 462968.72695 462783.49908 462565.58393 462369.46029 462233.26333 462064.37909 461906.39060 461753.85000 461579.51788 461437.87303 461268.98879 461165.47910 460931.22031 460506.28577 460195.75668 459895.21807 459743.58275 459324.09609 459029.91064 458670.35064 458272.65550 457973.02217 457646.14944 457411.89066 457306.38341 457210.31915 457046.88278 456937.92521 456921.58157 456883.44642 456861.65491 456818.07188 456790.83248 456725.45794 456709.11430 456665.53127

90

Co-ordinates of Kobadak River

X_COORD 428663.51798 428794.26707 429028.52585 429213.75373 429339.05494 429453.46039 429453.46039 429426.22100 429197.41009 428995.83858 428837.85010 428668.96586 428516.42525 428260.37495 428037.01192 427846.33617 427726.48284 427628.42102 427535.80708 427481.32829 427410.50587 427426.84951 427475.88042 427573.94223 427759.17011 428031.56404 428293.06222 428543.66464 428734.34040 428946.80767 429202.85797 429420.77312 429589.65736 429747.64584 429911.08220 430025.48766 430101.75796 430145.34099 430167.13250 430139.89311 430036.38341 429905.63433 Y_COORD 456665.53127 456921.58157 457319.27672 457586.22278 457853.16883 458147.35429 458370.71731 458626.76761 458910.05731 459106.18094 459264.16942 459405.81427 459542.01124 459754.47851 459977.84154 460195.75668 460337.40153 460468.15062 460609.79547 460778.67971 460936.66819 461165.47910 461361.60273 461579.51788 461764.74576 461955.42151 462102.51424 462255.05484 462374.90817 462489.31363 462658.19787 462794.39483 462919.69605 463055.89301 463257.46453 463410.00513 463611.57664 463775.01300 463933.00149 464107.33361 464281.66573 464406.96694 X_COORD 429709.51069 429513.38706 429355.39857 429213.75373 429012.18221 428739.78828 428380.22828 428058.80344 427829.99253 427568.49435 427252.51739 427056.39375 426882.06163 426713.17739 426571.53255 426462.57497 426386.30467 426310.03437 426250.10770 426195.62892 426130.25437 426119.35861 426103.01498 426097.56710 426070.32771 425977.71377 425912.33922 425836.06892 425727.11135 425618.15377 425465.61317 425296.72893 425127.84469 424969.85620 424790.07621 424653.87924 424523.13015 424392.38106 424218.04894 424076.40409 423940.20713 423793.11440 Y_COORD 464515.92451 464613.98633 464673.91299 464701.15239 464695.70451 464663.01724 464564.95542 464494.13300 464445.10209 464368.83179 464319.80088 464292.56148 464287.11360 464292.56148 464379.72754 464510.47663 464717.49602 464946.30693 465098.84753 465251.38814 465458.40753 465627.29177 465779.83237 465970.50813 466166.63176 466444.47358 466662.38873 466874.85600 467060.08387 467261.65539 467479.57053 467637.55902 467811.89114 467953.53598 468089.73295 468264.06507 468389.36628 468574.59416 468732.58264 468955.94567 469179.30870 469375.43233 X_COORD 423640.57380 423455.34592 423275.56592 423172.05623 423166.60835 423188.39986 423226.53501 423362.73198 423537.06410 423765.87501 423967.44652 424179.91379 424419.62045 424621.19197 424784.62833 424926.27317 425111.50105 425274.93741 425416.58226 425536.43559 425569.12286 425547.33135 425492.85256 425427.47802 425334.86408 425269.48953 425209.56287 425106.05317 425002.54348 424942.61681 424888.13802 424860.89863 424855.45075 424866.34651 424741.04530 424539.47378 424359.69379 424179.91379 423945.65500 423793.11440 423596.99077 423395.41925 Y_COORD 469566.10809 469778.57536 470029.17778 470247.09293 470519.48686 470710.16262 470862.70322 471015.24383 471102.40988 471080.61837 471026.13958 470955.31716 470879.04686 470791.88080 470710.16262 470666.57959 470622.99656 470672.02747 470759.19353 470873.59898 471075.17049 471353.01231 471576.37533 471826.97775 472077.58018 472279.15169 472464.37957 472753.11714 472992.82380 473287.00925 473581.19470 473831.79712 474049.71227 474224.04439 474311.21045 474431.06378 474496.43833 474518.22984 474447.40742 474392.92863 474256.73166 474125.98258

91

X_COORD 423123.02532 422926.90168 422779.80896 422621.82047 422393.00957 422218.67745 422104.27200 422000.76230 421968.07503 422055.24109 422213.22957 422409.35320 422616.37260 422790.70471 423008.61986 423204.74350 423444.45016 423602.43864 423716.84410 423809.45804 423863.93682 423836.69743 423793.11440 423700.50046 423575.19925 423406.31501 423286.46168 423090.33804 422937.79744 422801.60047 422676.29926 422556.44593 422409.35320 422305.84351 422224.12533 422180.54230 422169.64654 422213.22957 422289.49987 422322.18714 422393.00957 422491.07139

Y_COORD 473984.33773 473869.93228 473826.34925 473771.87046 473777.31834 473842.69288 473973.44197 474125.98258 474376.58500 474676.21833 474888.68560 475024.88256 475193.76680 475286.38074 475449.81710 475591.46195 475765.79407 475940.12619 476141.69770 476365.06073 476642.90254 477007.91042 477263.96072 477503.66738 477716.13465 477917.70617 478064.79889 478260.92252 478451.59828 478642.27404 478865.63706 479094.44797 479366.84190 479628.34008 479895.28614 480162.23220 480538.13583 480837.76916 481088.37158 481317.18249 481507.85824 481753.01278

X_COORD 422638.16411 422752.56956 422850.63138 423019.51562 423221.08713 423406.31501 423640.57380 423847.59319 424027.37318 424076.40409 424098.19561 424087.29985 424021.92531 423940.20713 423863.93682 423825.80167 423793.11440 423782.21864 423853.04107 423940.20713 424136.33076 424316.11076 424550.36954 424751.94105 424980.75196 425236.80226 425471.06105 425754.35074 425955.92225 426168.38952 426375.40891 426522.50164 426626.01133 426696.83376 426734.96891 426740.41679 426702.28164 426571.53255 426418.99194 426168.38952 425961.37013 425776.14225

Y_COORD 482085.33339 482335.93581 482488.47641 482608.32974 482646.46490 482641.01702 482624.67338 482624.67338 482722.73520 482815.34914 482929.75459 483055.05580 483196.70065 483371.03277 483572.60428 483725.14488 483915.82064 484084.70488 484210.00609 484346.20306 484444.26487 484520.53518 484569.56608 484585.90972 484645.83639 484678.52366 484738.45032 484809.27275 484869.19941 484934.57396 485016.29214 485098.01032 485174.28062 485266.89456 485381.30001 485512.04910 485648.24607 485773.54728 485866.16122 485964.22304 486051.38910 486127.65940

X_COORD 425563.67498 425351.20771 425165.97984 424969.85620 424768.28469 424588.50469 424414.17257 424228.94470 424136.33076 424021.92531 423891.17622 423793.11440 423700.50046 423591.54289 423488.03319 423417.21077 423357.28410 423286.46168 423231.98289 423204.74350 423188.39986 423177.50410 423182.95198 423204.74350 423182.95198 423193.84774 423172.05623 423112.12956 423019.51562 422932.34956 422812.49623 422649.05987 422442.04048 422311.29139 422169.64654 422038.89745 421940.83563 421848.22170 421793.74291 421761.05564 421750.15988 421744.71200

Y_COORD 486231.16909 486329.23091 486410.94909 486509.01091 486623.41636 486726.92606 486852.22727 486966.63272 487091.93393 487228.13090 487402.46302 487527.76423 487702.09635 487865.53271 488072.55210 488246.88422 488470.24725 488682.71452 488900.62967 489096.75330 489271.08542 489489.00057 489739.60299 490039.23632 490311.63026 490605.81571 490998.06298 491275.90479 491640.91266 491847.93206 492060.39933 492245.62720 492447.19871 492588.84356 492752.27992 492921.16416 493030.12174 493215.34961 493373.33810 493580.35749 493711.10658 493858.19930

92

X_COORD 421722.92049 421830.50343 421917.66949 422010.28342 422097.44948 422211.85494 422277.22948 422353.49978 422418.87433 422495.14463 422571.41493

Y_COORD 493988.94839 494042.57696 494107.95150 494222.35696 494325.86665 494565.57332 494761.69695 494946.92483 495110.36119 495252.00603 495350.06785

Morirchap River
X_COORD 421722.92049 421586.72352 421406.94352 421199.92413 421047.38352 420922.08231 420780.43747 420633.34474 420486.25202 420311.91990 420159.37929 420017.73445 419870.64172 419712.65324 419521.97748 419413.01991 419293.16658 419200.55264 419097.04294 418971.74173 418873.67991 418742.93082 418606.73386 418492.32840 418399.71447 418268.96538 418110.97689 Y_COORD 493988.94839 494136.04112 494299.47748 494446.57021 494533.73627 494593.66293 494659.03748 494718.96414 494757.09929 494784.33869 494784.33869 494757.09929 494735.30778 494675.38111 494571.87142 494522.84051 494452.01808 494419.33081 494424.77869 494457.46596 494555.52778 494675.38111 494838.81747 494975.01444 495111.21141 495236.51262 495301.88716

X_COORD 417942.09265 417784.10417 417631.56357 417457.23145 417315.58660 --416640.04964 416565.33007 416512.33311 416464.91477 416423.07506 416370.07810 416305.92388 416252.92691 416188.77269 416119.03985 416068.83220 416015.83523 415979.57415

Y_COORD 495367.26171 495405.39686 495421.74050 495448.97989 495432.63625 --494424.77869 494425.36458 494416.99664 494389.10350 494361.21036 494313.79202 494258.00574 494213.37672 494143.64387 494079.48965 494023.70338 493959.54916 493906.55219

Galghasia River
X_COORD 416852.51691 416613.10788 416471.46304 416302.57880 416122.79880 415943.01880 415763.23880 415594.35456 415436.36608 415283.82548 415169.42002 Y_COORD 476512.15345 476659.37902 476741.09720 476822.81539 476915.42932 476986.25175 477062.52205 477122.44871 477182.37538 477231.40629 477258.64568

Kalagachi River
X_COORD 422710.25190 422383.05368 422277.19543 422161.71370 422036.60849 421911.50329 421786.39808 421642.04592 421507.31724 421343.71813 Y_COORD 457306.38341 456825.20955 456642.36348 456478.76436 456334.41220 456151.56613 455987.96702 455833.99138 455718.50966 455631.89836

Betna River
X_COORD 416926.93889 416983.59683 417031.53817 417075.12120 417118.70423 417166.64556 417218.94519 417262.52822 417315.58660 417173.94175 417032.29691 416917.89145 416814.38176 416710.87206 416640.04964 Y_COORD 496037.42381 495980.76587 495928.46624 495880.52491 495797.71715 495701.83448 495605.95182 495514.42746 495432.63625 495274.64777 495040.38899 494866.05687 494697.17263 494555.52778 494424.77869

Arpangasia River
X_COORD 428663.51798 428936.64172 429100.24083 429254.21647 429427.43906 429542.92079 429648.77904 429735.39033 429802.75467 Y_COORD 456665.53127 456459.51741 456257.42439 456055.33136 455853.23834 455651.14532 455410.55838 455198.84188 454996.74886

93

Appendix-B Cross-Section Data

94

Cross-Section: Kholpetua 0.00

Cross-Section: Kholpetua 8500.00

95

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 21000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 21010.00

96

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 38000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 41000.00

97

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 46000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kholpetua 49500.00

98

Cross Cross-Section: Kholpetua 555000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 189000.00

99

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 190000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 204000.00

100

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 204010.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 207500.00

101

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 211500.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 225000.00

102

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 244000.00

Cross-Section: Cross Kobadak 246000.00

103

Cross-Section: Morirchap 0.00

Cross-Section: Cross Morirchap 5000.00

104

Cross-Section: Cross Morirchap 7000.00

Cross-Section: Betna 86750.00

105

Cross-Section: Betna 90500.00

Cross-Section: Betna 91500.00

106

Cross-Section: Cross Galghasia 20500.00

Cross-Section: Arpangasia 0.00

107

Arpangasia 2400.00

Cross-Section: Kalagachi 0.00

108

Appendix-C Flow Hydrographs and Stage Hydrographs

109

Flow Hydrograph at Galghasia 15625.00

Flow Hydrograph at Kobadak 185755.00

Flow Hydrograph at Betna 867500.00

Stage Hydropgraph at Arpangasia 0.00

110

Stage Hydrograph at Kalagachi 0.00

Stage Hydrograph at Morirchap 7000.00

111