Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Page 03
BR RESEARCH
THE TEAM
Ali Khizar Aslam
Head of Research
Mobin Nasir
Contents
Zuhair Abbasi
Sijal Fawad
Research Analyst
Hammad Haider
Research Analyst
Sidra Farrukh
Research Analyst
Javeria Ansar
Research Analyst
Naseem Waheed
Database Ofcer
Murtaza Khaliq
Creative Head
rising ceiling on deposits rates. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has done well to use market-oriented solutions to push the banks along their primary role of nancial intermediation. But history suggests that the downward trend in interest rates may be a short journey. Further, the sour taste of non-performing loans is still keeping banks appetite ow for lending to SMEs and consumers. As a result, to date only 10-15 percent of the population have entered the formal nancial system while the overwhelming majority continue to rely on informal lenders. Bank deposits are a mere one-third of the size of the economy (GDP). Other developing countries have raced past these levels in recent years. Whats more, conditions have worsened over the last ve years as the transfer of income from urban to rural areas has also led to higher ow of funds into the grey economy. Currency in circulation is close to one-third of the overall monetary assets and that has substantially increased in this regime. If half of that money is bought back to the formal nancial system, the deposits-to-GDP ratio will be comparable to that in India.
Bankers beware! 2013 is going to be a tough trough for banks top-line revenues amidst falling interest rates and squeezed spreads. So how are the countrys banks adjusting to this emerging reality?
Page 05
Given the velocity of 2.5-3x, banking deposits would increase by half from Rs6 trillion to Rs8.5-9 trillion. This can make our scal debt sustainable; bring ample room for private sector to borrow from banks and churn the wheels of the economy. But in the absence of market-oriented policy reforms this seems like a romance on a rainy December day. The reminiscence of boom of the last decade could turn to reality by bringing this liquidity back to the system. Lending rates could easily be in the vicinity of low, single digits with adequate credit for long-term investments,
may be in the ofng on this front, in 2013. As far as SME lending constraints are concerned, the regulator should push banks to develop de-centralized models whereby relationships are inculcated with businesses and facilities are offered based on the banks experience with individual clients. The reforms needed to spur banks away from lazy banking mandate concerted efforts from the SBP, banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan and the Government; to develop a long-term yield curve, revamp recovery laws and come up with
cost for the issuer (Government) while also providing borrowers an alternative to bank deposits. The development of a long-term yield curve is crucial to bolstering long-term private sector lending in the Country. The commercial banks have become increasingly focused on lowering the cost of deposits and lending to the Government to beef up the bottom line. Presidents and senior management of banks appear xated with cost cutting through work force rationalization and reducing the number of branches. By bringing in investment banks as competitors to commercial banks in the debt market, the latter can be pushed to play more effective roles as nancial intermediaries. Barring such reforms, driving nancial inclusion in the Country would remain a distant dream. After all, the persistent pressure brought on by the high scal decit and Balance of Payments vulnerabilities may soon give wind to simmering calls for a tighter Monetary Policy. Once that happens, banks prots will again rise on the back of lazy banking. That would mean lights out for efforts to bring the unbanked to the formal nancial system.
As far as SME lending constraints are concerned, the regulator should push banks to develop de-centralized models whereby relationships are inculcated with businesses and facilities are offered based on the banks experience with individual clients.
working capital as well as consumer products like house, car and personal loans. The investment to GDP ratio is at the lowest ebb of 12.5 percent of GDP in FY12 (provisional), which was 22.6 percent of GDP in FY08. Capital formation can boost formal savings, but it will not help much in bringing the unbanked into the formal nancial fold. For that to happen, prudent regulations, high foreclosure and documentation requirements, skewed banking recovery laws, low capacity of courts and poor law enforcement, are all hurdles that need to be addressed. Bankers have ratcheted up efforts to speed up banking court cases and there are reasons to believe a change market-oriented reforms that drive banks to lend to the private sector.The debt market is small and conned to a few banks treasuries with a sprinkling of participation by mutual funds. Virtually all the trade is taking place in short-term Government paper. Whatever corporate debt market was there in the form of TFCs is diminishing in the aftermath of the 2008 nancial crisis. Outstanding TFCs are worth less then a hundred billion rupees while Government Treasury Bills are oating in trillions of rupees. The Government would do well to issue Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs), at longer maturities instead of over-reliance on T-bills. Such a move would lower the
The writer is Head of Research at Business Recorder. He can be reached at: ali.khizar@br-mail.com
Page 06
The discount rate has dropped too much and too quickly. The central bank should also have adjusted its oor on return on deposits in line with the 300 bps reduction in the discount rate.
Page 07
UBL ADDED
NEW BRANCHES
in CY12
50
We are opening 350,000 virgin accounts every month, even if we retain half of them for the next six months, it will be a good number. Omni has been a roaring success; we do almost three million transactions a month through 7,000 agents.
just do not want to put up new money. They would rather go and invest in real estate. People do not see enough business opportunities in terms of investment, which is why all the money is going into real estate. It is a worldwide phenomenon that real estate prices go up in a declining interest rate scenario. It is very easy to park your money in real estate. It will eventually come back to the system, but deposit generation is not the issue. BRR: The countrys industrial sector has not graduated beyond light engineering as witnessed in China and India in the recent past. In your view, what are the main hurdles to this evolution? AB: A lack of managerial competence and corporate governance are the two AB: It has been more of a sporadic growth. We added 85 branches last year and are expected to add around 45-50 this year. Going forward with this low interest rate scenario, I do not expect any aggressive growth in the branch network across the industry. Because to breakeven, you will have to create a lot more liability, with the kind of spreads that we have at the moment. BRR: Is banking penetration increasing at a mentionable pace in the country? AB: Yes, and it will only keep on increasing. We are opening 350,000 virgin accounts every month, even if we retain half of them for the next six months, it will be a good number. Omni has been a roaring success; we do almost three million transactions a month through 7,000 agents.
UBL OPENED
85
in CY11
Page 08
BRANCHES
INTERVIEW BY:
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Nov-12 8.6% 59.4% 28.2% 4.2% 1.5% 3.0% 13.0% 4.6% 4.6% 22.2% 8.3% 7.4% 58.2% 58.1% 26.1% 23.6% 4.3% 6.6% 3.5% 6.4% 3.4% 3.4% 12.0% 11.3% 4.4% 4.4% 5.8% 4.8% 22.0% 17.0% 7.4% 57.8% 23.5% 7.1% 8.0% 3.0% 10.5% 4.2% 4.8% 14.9% 7.3% 57.5% 23.5% 6.4% 9.8% 2.9% 9.5% 4.4% 4.6% 12.5% 7.5% 57.1% 21.7% 6.6% 11.9% 2.6% 8.5% 3.9% 4.3% 11.4% 8.4% 55.9% 20.6% 7.1% 11.5% 2.1% 8.6% 4.6% 4.5% 11.9%
Punjab and Sindh clocked in at 15.5 percent and 17.25 percent, respectively. On the other hand, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan saw advances shrink by seven percent and 16 percent, respectively. In Punjab and Sindh, the advance to deposit ratio (ADR) stands at a healthy level of 63 percent and 72 percent, respectively. However in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, only Rs13 were lent out for every Rs100 in deposits. The banks were even bigger scrooges in Balochistan; lending just
When quizzed over the weak proportion of advances, most bankers point to the energy crisis, frail law and order and political uncertainty; contending there are few opportunities for extending private sector credit. Statistics may not tell the whole story but surely they do not lie. Banks advances to the private sector in the past ve years have grown at a cumulative average of just 2.4 percent. This pales in comparison to the deposit growth during the same period, whcih clocked in at a steady 10
Page 09
Cre Credit r dit demand is re strong s ro st r ng n across a ro ac ross oss sectors sect cto ct tors and corporate c rpora co rat ra ate te earnings n are ngs r healthy re hea e lthy ea h hy
BR Research: SCBPLs internet banking is a success story. Do you foresee a signicant shift from branch to branchless banking? Mohsin Nathani: There has not been a fundamental shift to branchless banking; it is a slow transition. We have devised a host of strategies to attract and initiate people to internet banking but the growth we would like to see will take steady and concerted efforts in the medium-term. BRR: Consumer lending has dried up considerably in Pakistan, compared to the heyday in the early 2000s. But now interest rates are trending down. Will that entice the banks to lend more in the consumer and retail segments? MN: We are focusing strongly on expanding the retail lending business. Our issuances of personal loans and credit cards have gone up, as have mortgage loans. But the industry is not back at the size it was at back in 2005. After the creation of the Credit Bureau, many people that had previously been issued loans and cards by the banks, are not qualied any more. Banks often make exceptions but it is important to have well-dened processes for applications for loans and credit cards. We are working on cracking the math to be able to tap the potential market that is not being covered comprehensively right now. We have grown our book by Rs7-8 billion since 2011. We have a strong appetite and liquidity for these segments. We are focussed on garnering clients since before rates started declining because when the economy rebounds, we know we can count on these clients for even more business.
BRR: Why are SCBPLs non-performing loans relatively high compared to other similar sized banks? MN: We are very conservative in our approach towards provisioning. We do not take chances on that front. In fact our coverage ratio depicts this conservatism as it is close to 80 percent. So from a risk perspective this is a very prudent approach. BRR: State Bank of Pakistan has taken an accommodative view on Monetary Policy of late. In your view, how benecial has this been for generating demand for credit and boosting economic activity? MN: SBP has taken an accommodative view over the past 12 months and it has also been very open in terms of communicating to the banks, the rationale behind its approach. The business community had been urging the apex regulator to bring down loans and since the discount rate is benchmarked against ination, there has been room to lower the policy rate. We feel that this is a good initiative. At the same time, MPS alone will not change the economic environment. The energy crisis has really driven up the cost of doing business and law and order is a detriment to expansion at the moment. So we feel that a more holistic approach is needed for a roaring revival. In my view, industrial activity has picked up in the past 12 months, including cement, FMCGs, textiles, sugar and all other industries other than fertilizer which is facing a gas shortage; not a demand
AAA
LOCAL RATING
80
PERCENT
Page 10
A silent revolution is already in the works. In three years time, the branchless banking sector has emerged as the leading contender to bridge the nancial divide
estimates put the proportion of the unbanked population at a whopping 85 percent. In the past four years, banks in the country have preferred to hold on to Government securities to earn easy prots, while holding back on private sector lending. Therefore, nancial mainstreaming of the unbanked population may be a very difcult proposition in the brick-and-mortar retail banking model. But there is hope a silent revolution is already in the works. In three years time, the branchless banking sector has emerged as the leading
contender to bridge the nancial divide. The full-scale deployments of two established BB service providers, in addition to two new arrivals, have really pushed the nancial inclusion envelope in Pakistan. The retail agent network of the four service providers has now expanded to over 32,000 agents; almost thrice the number of bank branches in the country. Ofcial data indicates that over ten million transactions are now being generated every month in the BB system, with over a billion rupees owing through the system every day. Mobile wallets are expected to cross the two million mark any day now.
entrenched in their communities, so their rapport and camaraderie encourage prospective users and suppliers to try out BB services. The intimidation felt by the users when they walk into banking structures of marble and concrete is also taken care of by these simple and friendly establishments. Many of these outlets close late in the night and normally open early in the morning, which makes the BB services availability virtually a 24/7 affair. Without quality interaction among agents and customers, the BB system would be like a computer without software it just wouldnt work. It is crucial for the agents to remain consistent, meticulous and professional in their business conduct, while at the same time maintain their friendliness and educate the customers about service benets and usage. Matters like liquidity management, services marketing and quality assurance at the agents end are very
important. If the agents are hired and are left on their own to operate with minimal training and supervision, it will be a matter of time before the foundation rattles. Growing competition will accelerate the pace of new nancial services offerings under the BB umbrella. Service providers now understand the opportunity that the branchless banking platform can become a currency of sorts, as more and more vendors start accepting payments via mobile wallets. Such a payment ecosystem will offer incentives for people to save and spend via mobile phones; it will benet the service providers in terms of oat; and it will also reduce cash-based transactions signicantly.
Page 12
banks in 2012. But unlike the unbridled expansion witnessed in the early 2000s, many banks have also consolidated their presence and cut branches. For banks the likes of Barclays the focus has been on evolving the model and brand of service provision to the select clientele that the bank targets, instead of creating a substantial geographical presence. The banks agship branch located in Gulberg Lahore and the seven premier centres spread across the country are a case in point.
impersonal brand of banking dispatched by taciturn tellers perched behind their Plexi-glass thrones could daunt the strongest of hearts. But with the teller window concept having gone largely out of vogue, banks today are much more focused on transforming the interaction that takes place between the bank and the customer, going for a value-added branded customer engagement approach that leans away from mere selling towards a more holistic banking experience.
The overall dynamic in branch interface is all set to become leaner and meaner as banks set up a multi-channel approach towards service delivery
Catering to the top-tier customer, these centres offer dedicated relationship managers along with boasting facilities like cigar lounges, conference rooms, childrens play areas and other exclusive services. On the other hand, for the more solution oriented banks like Soneri and Bank Alfalah, accessibility remained a cornerstone for all branch expansion plans this year. Looking to penetrate into smaller cities and market towns. Plans for both banks include opening smaller, leaner branches in towns where the banking net is not well spread as yet.
Page 13
of robust systems and procedures such as these which ensure mandatory controls and mitigate risk, it is no surprise that mortgage nancing has not witnessed upward momentum in the country. When courts begin dealing with cases quickly enough, willful default will automatically be dealt a death blow. Currently, unfortunately, this remains a gap. Therefore, the development of a holistic mortgage eco system still has a long way to go. As of now, banks are lending amongst just those pockets within large cities where property titles are clean and real estate markets are not overly skewed or cornered in order to appropriately manage risk. BRR: Which economic sectors do you expect will drive growth in 2013? AB: The conventional export giant, the textile industry is doing well and we are witnessing fresh investments in this sector. Apart from that, there are pockets of growth in other sectors. For instance, the cement industry has not witnessed a major spike in demand but has done relatively well due to the strength of international prices. The power and energy needs of the country also mandate that the incoming government will have to drive growth in this sector. Investments will likely start pouring into this sector within a year and the pricing offered to the private sector will also be attractive. Therefore we foresee increased activity in 2013 in the energy sector. Then we are beginning to witness great long-term interest being generated in agri-based industries. Retail sales are already strong and the growth trajectory is likely to remain impressive in the near future. One other area of focus for banks will be the nascent capital market, both equity and debt in Pakistan. It is critical that a vibrant and broad based capital market be developed in order to support the nancing needs of a growth economy. We believe we should be playing a leading role in helping to mobilize capital and to deploy it effectively.
BANK ALFALAH
65 471
IN 2012 ADDED NETWORK OF
BRANCHES
Finally, SME banking and agri-nance are also promising opportunities and address sectors that are the backbone of our economy. Bank Alfalah aims to continue investing in these areas through tailored solutions for each segment, whilst remaining cognizant of and appropriately managing the risks involved. BRR: What are the key impediments to the large-scale spread of mortgage nancing in the Country? AB: The overall eco system for mortgage activity entails certain pre-requisites in order to be successful some of these include the registration of properties, the ability to repossess properties in cases of default and also the banks ability to arrange long-term funding. Unfortunately, these pre-requisites have not been met to the satisfaction of a growing need in Pakistan. Therefore, in the absence
INTERVIEW BY:
Page 14
Citibank is the market leader in the foreign exchange segment and holds
Our commitment to Mr. Lodhi also highlighted that the Bank is the market leader in the When quizzed over the Banks serving our niche clientele in foreign exchange segment and expected performance in the Pakistan remains strong and holds 55 percent of the coming year, Nadeem Lodhi are keen on growing our multinational corporates wallets. highlighted energy and As other foreign banks have infrastructure as growth areas and market share in those down-sized operations in the hinted that the Bank will soon help sectors where we can fully country, Citi has been chosen as the forge deals in these sectors. banker of choice by the impacted Energy sector holds immense deploy our global presence mulitinational companies he potential in the country and there are contended. Airlines operating in the many prospective investors mulling over country have also moved to Citibank for their developing new energy infrastructure in banking needs. Nadeem Lodhi asserted that the the country. We are well geared to facilitate Banks popularity among large national and such investors and going forward in 2013, we hope multinational corporations is based on its solutions-oriented that there will be signicant multilateral and bilateral approach, best-in-class cash management services and credit support for the development of Pakistans energy superior technological platforms. infrastructure, said Mr. Lodhi.
As part of its global repositioning drive, Citibank has recently announced the sale of its consumer segments in about half a dozen countries including Pakistan. On the consumer lending front, Citibank had earlier sold its mortgage nance portfolio in Pakistan, to BankIslami. Nadeem Lodhi revealed that, once we receive the nal clearance from the apex regulator, our consumer lending portfolio which now mainly comprises of credit cards, will also be sold off to Habib Bank Limited. The two banks will transition this portfolio over the span of three to six months. All reward points accumulated by our credit card holders will remain valid and the rebranding will be gradually phased in by HBL Mr. Lodhi revealed. As it continues to reposition its services to focus on its core competencies, Citibank has also reduced the number of branches it operates in the country. At the beginning of 2011, we were operating 16 branches in the country which have gradually been reduced to seven at Summing up, he said Citi Pakistan remains committed in its vision of being the leading Corporate and Investment bank for Public Sector clients, Financial Institutions, major local corporates and Multinational clients in Pakistan. Our commitment to serving our niche clientele in Pakistan remains strong and are keen on growing our market share in those sectors where we can fully deploy our global presence.
INTERVIEW BY:
MOBIN NASIR
Page 15
Global Scenario
Corporate debt market has increasingly been touted as an integral part of a resilient nancial system. It not only creates a multifaceted nancial system whereby capital markets compliment and in some way regulate the banking sector but also provides a broader spectrum of investment avenues to the investors besides providing a source of long term funding to the borrowers. The presence of a well-established corporate debt market triggers the banks to hit upon new products and tap the SME sector that would automatically generate and increase economic activity. According to McKinsey Global Institute, the amount of global bonds outstanding grew by $5 trillion in 2010, with global debt-to-GDP increasing from 218 percent in 2000 to 266 percent in 2010. However, the growth patterns were not very encouraging as the mainstream growth came from the government sector which accounted for 80 percent of the total growth while corporate bonds, bonds issued by nancial institutions and securitized assets collectively constitute 20 percent. International Organization of Securities Commission states that the corporate bond market is at its nascent stage in most of the emerging countries mainly due to factors such as underdeveloped regulatory framework, incompetent market infrastructure, lack of diverse instruments and a thin investor base.
25 20 15 10 5 0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
The corporate debt market is unattractive due to lack of incentives, tedious listing requirements, hefty underwriting fees and cumbersome primary issuance guidelines.
market. Retail investors are more sensitive to reputation and brand recognition. They yearn for high return but at the same time are concerned about the reliability of their investments, comfort on which is dictated by their familiarity with the companys name. This leaves small and less renowned companies at a competitive disadvantage regardless of their operational and nancial performance. Moreover, the low risk-bearing capacity of Pakistani investors encourages them to prefer government securities over private sector bonds. The risk-free nature of various government securities and National Saving Scheme, the improvised rate adjustments on such instruments and the ability to redeem them prematurely, entice risk-averse investors. So the opportunity cost of investing in the corporate bond market is high. Liquidity
constraints are also attributable to a lack of an active secondary market for corporate bonds. From issuers perspective, the corporate debt market is unattractive due to lack of incentives, tedious listing requirements, hefty underwriting fees and cumbersome primary issuance guidelines. Moreover, institutional investors are restricted by statutory requirements to buy government bonds. This factor proved to be a tough call for the issuers leading to under-subscription. In addition to this, the private sector companies that issue corporate bonds are open to various exogenous risks. Thus, a lack of viable derivative instruments in Pakistan also serves as a factor marring the development of corporate bond market in Pakistan.
Page 16
The development of corporate bond market in the country is imperative. The question that now arises is how?
While the private sectors indolence in tapping the bond market is substantiated by the aforementioned factors, its establishment is only possible if policymakers lead the charge in developing a vibrant corporate debt market. This includes capacity building at SBP and SECP and collaboration of FBR and GoP to rationalize tax treatment of corporate debt instruments. Given that the debt market has witnessed some improvement illustrated by the recent effectively subscribed debt issues by Standard Chartered Bank and KESC, further efforts should be made through advisory services to make investors fully understand the risk-return trade-off. To improve market competence, measures should be taken to broaden the range of primary bond offering methods, reducing the time and cost for the shelf registration of bond issues, standardizing and simplifying bond offering documentation, creating an efcient government benchmark yield curve, etc. Albeit, with the issuance of Government bonds for various maturities up to 30 years the sovereign risk-free curve does exist, however, there is a need for a smooth yield curve as most of the investment is conned to a few points, particularly in lower maturities. Moreover, the growth in the primary bond market is not possible unless it is complemented with an efcient secondary market platform. This includes enhancing
trading efciency by developing a market-making system, establishing a corporate bond index and removing regulatory obstacles which hinder the participation of investors. Innovation in the debt market is another criterion that could trigger growth. This includes developing a wider range of instruments. Treet Corporation Limited has recently added novelty to the corporate debt market with its announcement to raise nances through a unique instrument - Participation Term Certicate (PTC). Going forward, development of Islamic debt instruments can add depth and breadth to the market. Growth in the bond market can also be elicited by the introduction of relevant derivative instruments to enable the issuers and investors to hedge their respective risks. Finally, measures to deepen and grow the corporate bond markets will not work unless they are accompanied by robust regulatory and supervisory frameworks and strengthened investor protection endeavors. These include enhancing the quality and timeliness of disclosure by issuers, fostering trading and price transparency, strengthening surveillance and supervision, as well as enhancing bankruptcy and restructuring regulations.
WAY Forward
The writer is a Research Analyst at Business Recorder. She can be reached at: sobia.mesiya@gmail.com
Page 17
DEPOSIT GROWTH
03 BILLION
RUPEES
PER BRANCH
04 BILLION
RUPEES
INTERVIEW BY:
Page 18
Banking Numbers
Government debt (as % of GDP)
. . .
Pakistan India 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 -40
Bangladesh
Singapore
. .
Malaysia
. . . .
Pakistan 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Sri Lanka India
Bangladesh
Singapore
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
2006 20 40 60 80 100
. . .. . . .
Pakistan Singapore Sri Lanka Malaysia India China
Bangladesh
Regional NPLs
Pakistan
. . .
India 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007
. .
Malaysia
China
2009 2010
2008
2009
2010
2011
. . . .
Pakistan Sri Lanka India 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 10 20
Bangladesh
. .
Malaysia
China
-5
30
40
50
60
Page 20
FBs
2.7
21-27 Banks
SBs
3.8
SHARE OF MENTS T TS TOTAL INVESTMENTS
1.0
. .
Category-wise ROE
Public Sector Commercial Banks Local Private Banks Foreign Banks Commercial Banks
17 1 7 75 .5 .
11-20 Banks k ks
6-10 Banks
23.3
Non-Performing Loans
51.7 51
0 (10)
2006
2007
Jun-12
2011
2010
2009
2008
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11 Jun-12
Advances (net) Rs bn 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 CY10 CY11 Jun-12
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY06
. .
Total
Bank branches
Local Banks Foreign Banks
(20.0) 4000 6000 8000 10000 (40.0) CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 Jun-12
2000
Others
Textile
Sugar
Page 21
Declining ADRs
Liquid Assets/ Total Deposits 80 70 60 50 40 30 CY07 CY08
21-27 Banks
Advances to Deposit Ratio
0.1
FBs
SBs
11-20 Banks k ks
0.1
Top T To p 5 Banks k ks
6-10 Banks k ks
70.6 7 70 0.6
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
Jun-12
SHARE E OF ADVANCES
Banks in Pakistan
2011
188.31 137.61** 106.49 93.39 84.00 77.53** 58.63** 58.58 57.14 55.57
2010
133.84 29.80 277.52 ** 72.52 73.55 69.65 31.20 52.77 94.53 74.82
FBs
2.4
21-27 Banks
SBs
3.7
SHARE OF POSITS P OSITS T TS TOTAL DEPOSITS
0.3
17.6 1 6
22.7 7
53.4 53.
Industrial Development Bank of Pakistan Punjab Provincial Co-operative Bank Ltd. SME Bank Ltd. Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd
Page 22
The growth in earnings of the banking sector should track the progress of the real economy. If nancial earnings outstrip real growth, wealth created is unsupported by economic value. The sanctioned authority for banks to use high leverage (at least 12 times the initial capital), is the principal spur to the creation of this bubble wealth, which will sooner or later have to be written down, hitting banks capital, and with the potential to precipitate nancial crisis.
Page 24
First, the sustainability of economic recovery in the US and Europe will depend critically on credit expansion by banks, to compensate for low private demand. Secondly, globalization and free ow of international capital has made banks a much bigger part of national economies than formerly. In the US, over the 50 years to 2008, the share of the manufacturing sector in total economy-wide prots, dropped from 49 percent to 15 percent; while the prots of the nancial sector doubled, from 15 percent to 35 percent. The nancial economy became much more protable than the real economy simply because it uses high leverage, with all its attendant risk. But nance, today, still holds the power, even though it has cost the developed world 2-3 percent of GDP for four or ve years, plus direct costs that may end up in trillions of dollars. That is the cost of the failed mandate. The banking system in the Emerging Markets (EMs) has avoided the high-risk strategy of banks in the US, UK and EU. So, have they better achieved the public purpose? As domestic markets usually lack the full-blown array of specialized nancial services of the developed world, EM governments expect commercial banks to play a transformational role, with respect to key development priorities i.e. nancing infrastructure; agriculture, SME and less developed regions. In consequence, governments have taken extensive ownership of their banking systems, and taken the lead in mobilizing the development of specialized lending capacity, in the public sector. In the BRICs, for example, government ownership in the banking system in China is 90 percent; in India, 70 percent; and in both Brazil and Russia, about 45 percent. In addition, BRICs have a range of Government-owned specialized institutions for long-term project development. A study at the Max Planck Institute at Bonn (Sept 2010, Kroner and Schnabel) argues that, given sufcient political maturity, social and development objectives have been met more successfully when public ownership has been signicant, with a demonstrable spillover into higher growth (this study, among others on the same theme, counters the extensively quoted cross-country study by LaPorta et al in 2002, that documented a negative correlation between public ownership and economic growth). Public intervention in nance absolutely does not preclude private ownership, even extensive private ownership, of nancial services. With the possible exception of China, the nancial sector in BRICs is completely open to the private sector. Public-sector banks both compete with, and gain management and product expertise from, the leading private sector banks. The greater bias on development, as opposed to prot-maximisation, aligns public/mixed ownership to accepting longer term, and sometimes lower, returns. Private owners of banks may not share the same objectives. Nevertheless, an important issue does arise here. All banks employ predominantly public money. Is it reasonable for any, then, to opt out of a solid commitment to development nancing? Should a schematic of compulsory, directed lending for national priority sectors be laid down for all banks (e.g., as in India); and if not, should some form of sanction apply, if banks wish to opt out of directed developmental lending, such as a higher tax rate? However, regulatory compulsion is undesirable: if banks will not participate voluntarily, then the government has to set up its own capacity to address development nance. The duty must not lapse through default. In Pakistan, we have a well capitalized, professionally managed banking sector, with predominantly (80 percent) private sector ownership. But the nancial sector as a
whole, in Pakistan, has not made noticeable progress against its development mandate. There are new forms of nancial services that hold promise for increasing nancial inclusion. Branchless banking, and alongside it, the spread of mobile banking, is making steady inroads into the formerly unbanked. Pakistan well emerge as a regional leader in this area. In the longer run, the effort may achieve fast incremental integration of informal markets, into the formal banking system. But our mainstream commercial banking has lacked dynamism. The banking system has been stagnating. After a rapid growth in credit and deposits post privatization (after 99), both have as a proportion of GDP - shrunk. Bank deposits are now 28 percent of GDP, versus 34 percent in 1999. Private sector credit, after reaching 30 percent of GDP in 2007, is down to 16 percent now the lowest level in decades. Both ratios are well below that in other EMs, and much weaker than in the region. For India, deposits to GDP are 57 percent, in Bangladesh 54 percent; and loans are about 50 percent of GDP in both countries. Secondary markets in Pakistan remain stunted. Common Money Market instruments Commercial Paper, Acceptances have failed to develop, and the Bond market is small and stagnant. Mutual funds have made some progress, but overall at Rs300 billion, remain only about six percent of bank deposits (compared to the global average of 30 percent). With respect to the priority sectors of infrastructure, SME, agriculture and regional lending, commercial banking activity has in fact declined. Our development nance institutions were closed down, and at present, Pakistan lacks dedicated institutions for infrastructure and specialized project nancing. With respect to other priority sectors, bank lending to agriculture, has been stagnant, at only seven percent of GDP (while the sector amounts to 23 percent of GDP), while the SME sector now draws only six percent of total credit, down from 17 percent some years ago. With respect to regional nance overall excluding Sindh and Punjab, the rest of Pakistan has about Rs700 billion in deposits, but loans to the regions are under Rs100 billion. Banks use the regions as sources of funds for their lending operations, mainly in Central Punjab and Karachi. Governments borrowing costs; with competition from the funds, banks would have to raise rates paid on deposits; and declining holdings of Government paper would have forced banks to increase lending to the private sector. Without a banking sector that has the diversication to service all parts of the economy, we will postpone the revival of national growth. And the public mandate of the banking sector will remain unfullled - albeit that banks will remain protable, through their lending to Government. But not for long if national growth stays muted, government decits are likely to increase. With domestic debt servicing already taking up half of national tax revenues and growing faster than tax revenues debt serviceability will impose extremely challenging burdens, even in the near future. What can be done is well known. It is tiresome to repeat initiatives that have seen stalled starts, over time, in the SBP, and at the Ministry of Finance. We need to set up project and infrastructure nancing capacity, and mortgage and agricultural lending, in specialized entities, most likely in PPP modes; build a proper Government debt market, so corporate bond markets can develop, on the back of it; we need to reengage with the SMEs, via vitalized institutional capacity, using venture capital and perhaps an alternate stock market for small companies listing; etc. If the private sector will not take the lead in developing appropriate initiatives, then let the leadership come from public-private initiatives just as long as the institutions are independent of ministries, and have independent, and largely private-sector boards that oversee governance and that appoint CEOs. Our still maturing political institutions, and an underdeveloped nancial framework, will not qualify us for a Government-led nancial sector as required in the Max Planck Institute study mentioned earlier. Looking out a few years, Pakistan can achieve sustainable levels of GDP growth rates of 6-8 percent, if it has been able to develop its infrastructure; its power capacity; its mining resources; its agricultural productivity; and developed a new generation of businessmen from its SME sector. Major EMs pave the way for growth through technically strong and diversied nancial institutions nurturing the priority sectors mentioned. We need to do the same.
Syed Salim Raza is the former Governor of State Bank of Pakistan. He holds a Masters degree from Oxford University and has had an illustrious career in banking.
If nancial crises and ensuing losses erupt from the drive for excess prots for banks shareholders, then Government is effectively complicit in allowing the privatization of banking prots, while losses are passed on to taxpayers.
While withdrawing from general development lending, banks have built up huge exposure to the public sector to slightly over 50 percent of their credit books, from 32 percent in 2008. Most of this nancing supports governments power and PSE losses, or commodity purchases a totally unproductive use of national savings, which does not increase the size of the economic cake. In holding government securities, the leading banks had been able to earn 2-3 percent more than the rate they pay their depositors for similar maturities. Obviously, there is a big market anomaly at work here: Governments should normally raise money at the lowest price in the market. But as heavily dominant buyers of Government paper, taking an 80 percent share, the banks use their buying power to turn Government into a price-taker. It need not be so. A dynamic mutual funds market would have competed with banks for buying Government paper, with several virtuous economic effects competition for its paper would have reduced the
Page 25
SUMMIT BANK
ASSET SIZE
5.696 BILLION
RUPEES
129.22 BILLION
RUPEES
FY06
CY12
In a country where more than half the economic activity is generated from undocumented sectors, the discount rate has a limited impact on growth and ination. Conversely lowering the benchmark rate will spur investment in the documented sectors which is crucial for reviving our stagnating economic growth
There was a time when our ten biggest depositors constituted 45 percent of the total bank deposits. Now they make up only about 12 percent of this tally, which is quite reasonable said Lawai. In the drive to boost low-cost deposits he highlighted the Banks current account product which offers health insurance to depositors, matching the deposited amount in the account. This product has been quite successful and we will also re-launch it soon with a strong marketing campaign he revealed. SMBL ranks seventh among banks for distribution of home remittances, according to the State Bank of Pakistan,
14
PERCENT
7.6 PERCENT
and ability to repay, instead of relying on blanket benchmarks. President SMBL is convinced that, if we can improve our judicial system to expedite the hearing of cases, the industry-wide problem of non-performing loans will be comprehensively overcome. Drawing examples from other countries where courts provide denite time lines for the resolution of nancial disputes, he called for accountability within the judicial system whereby the superior courts may ensure timely judgments on bank-related cases. Speedy justice is the key to curbing a culture of default with impunity, he summed up.
INTERVIEW BY:
Page 26
Soneri Bank has stepped up efforts to mobilize deposits while agressively working on lowering its cost of funds as well as maintaining its administrative expenses at the current low levels
220
BRANCHES
ADDED
He concedes that no sector is large enough for a bank to solely focus on it and the harsh conditions faced by business in lieu of security and energy make it hard to lend to banks. But the Bank President insists on aggressive private sector lending in an environment where most banks are content to buy Government debt. When you are lending to the private sector, you cannot expect zero defaults, he said. The banks cannot afford to be too aggressive though; as Manzoor warns that another economic crisis in the country could imperil the existence of smaller nancial institutions.
NEW BRANCHES
TO ITS NETWORK in CY12
25
Page 27
BRIEF HISTORY
Independence:
14 August 1947
Population Division
State Religion:
Independence:
Islam 5% Others
31 August 1957
Population Division
State Religion:
95% Muslims
Sunni 75% Shia 20%
60.4% Muslims
Sunni 75% Shia 20%
MALAYSIA
PAKISTAN
5.1%
US$ parity :
55
16
ISLAMIZATION PROCESS
PAKISTAN
Objectives Resolution adopted on March 12, 1949 by the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan. Council of Islamic Ideology created on August 1, 1962 to make recommendations to bring current laws into conformity with Islamic injunctions. Prot and loss sharing banking experiment started in January 1, 1981 to implement interest-free banking. The banking procedure adopted by banks in Pakistan since July 1, 1985 declared un-Islamic by the Federal Shariat Court (FSC) in November 1991. Shariat Appellate Bench (SAB) of Supreme Court delivered judgment on December 23, 1999 that laws involving interest would cease to have effect from June 30, 2001.
MALAYSIA
Muslim Pilgrims Saving Corporation (Tabung Haji) established in 1963. It is Malaysias rst Islamic savings corporation. Government formed National Steering Committee in 1981 to outline strategy to inculcate Islamic banking industry. The rst Islamic bank in Malaysia, Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad (BIMB), established in July 1983. First Islamic window at a commercial bank appreared at Bank Negara Malaysia in March 1993. Malaysia introduced Islamic debt securities market in 1990 and Islamic Inter-bank Money Market (IIMM) in 1994. Islamic Banking Scheme (IBS) established in 1999, to include interest-free banking system and full-edged Islamic banks.
In 1999, Islamic windows of three commercial banks merged On September 4, 2001, Government decided to introduce Islamic to form second Islamic Bank, Bank Muamalat Malaysia Banking practices in parallel with conventional banking sector. Berhad (BMMB), which in turn established RHB Islamic bank, Hong Leong Islamic bank, Maybank Islamic Berhad and Islamic Banking Division established at SBP in September CIMB-Tijari Islamic bank by 2004. 2003. It set criteria for establishment of Islamic commercial banks through Islamic Banking Policy 2004. In 2005, foreign banks such as Kuwait Finance House, Al Rajhi and Asian Finance given Islamic Banking licenses. First international Islamic Interbank Benchmark Rate developed by Thomson Reuters and Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) in November 2011.
Page 28
5 16
12 22
5 8
1 9
15 35
25 -
Malaysia also has Islamic Investment Banks, Development Institutions with Islamic services, Islamic Inter-bank Money Market, Islamic stock broking company
Product Size
Pakistan Malaysia
MALAYSIA
Training Institutes which inculcate education of Islamic nance are as follows: International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance (INCEIF) Malaysias global university of Islamic nance International Shariah Research Academy for Islamic Finance (ISRA) which promotes applied research in Shariah and Islamic nance Islamic Banking & Finance Institute Malaysia (IBFIM) Asian Institute of Finance (AIF) Institut Bank-Bank Malaysia (Institute of Bankers Malaysia) Islamic Banking and Finance Institute Malaysia Malaysian Insurance Institute
MALAYSIA
Islamic banking in Malaysia has been criticized because of its application of bay' al-Inah in creating a number of so-called Islamic nancing products. Bay' al-Inah is a sale contract with immediate repurchase. It takes place when a person sells an asset in credit and immediately buys back the asset in cash at lower price. The classical jurists are in disagreement in assessing the legality of the contract. It was prohibited by majority of jurists including the Hanas, Malikis and Hanbalis, but allowed by Shas.
The author is Section Head, Corporate Strategy and Business Planning at Bankislami Pakistan Limited. She can be reached at: ayesha.ashraf@bankislami.com.pk
Page 29
Bank Islami
Inefcient real estate market a big impediment to mortgages
Bank Islami (BIPL) is the second biggest Islamic bank in the country, in terms of deposits as well as number of branches. The Bank has continued endeavours to enhance its branch network in the outgoing year; adding 39 branches in CY12. Given its aggressive stride, the Bank has churned out a consistent pace of 30 percent growth per year, since its inception. In a recent interview with BR Research, BIPL President Hasan Bilgrami pointed out, we have grown organically without any mergers and acquisitions, yet in comparison to our peers, we have exhibited higher growth throughout our existence. He recalled that BIPL added 10 branches in 2006, 26 branches in 2007 and another 66 in the next year. After consolidating operations over the next three years, in CY12 the Bank has once again resumed the extension of its network. We hope to add another 60 branches next year, subject to SBP approval revealed Bilgrami, adding that this will distinguish BIPL as the second biggest Islamic bank in Pakistan.
doubled the size of its portfolio, so the experience proved to be a win-win situation for all key stakeholders. While BIPL is active on the home loans and car loans front; Bilgrami contended that the legal environment in the country is not conducive for banks to roll out such loans. The real impediment to a vibrant market for home loans is that the real estate market is quite inefcient. Then foreclosures are not easy to implement here, so banks are unable to really expand this portfolio even though they would want to he pointed out. But BIPL has taken a personal approach to building its home and car loans portfolios. We judge each application based on the personal relationship and history of the applicant, instead of relying on the same laundry list for everyone said the BIPL President. Since Islamic banks actually own the asset which they lend against, recovery is also not as cumbersome for them as it is for conventional banks. Hasan Bilgrami cites these as the core reasons due to which the countrys Islamic banks are so far the dominant players in the home loans segment.
BANK ISLAMI
39
NEW BRANCHES in CY12
30
percent
Page 30
Banks must make efforts to differentiate a good bet from a bad one
Ahmed Khizer President, Burj Bank
BR Research: Briey relate the vision of Burj Bank and its plans for the near future. Ahmed Khizer: Burj Bank is the fastest growing Islamic Bank in Pakistan. It pursues an ambition of reaching new heights and achieving distinction in Islamic Banking by becoming a symbol of prosperity, progress and success. We have a rich Middle Eastern background with the support of ICD Jeddah (Islamic Corporation for Development of the Private Sector) which is the private sector arm of Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. Other major shareholders include Bank Al-Khair from Bahrain, Gargash Enterprises from the UAE and Al-Romaizan from Saudi Arabia. Our Board of Directors has approved a ve-year plan which envisions rapid expansion. We added 25 branches to our network in the outgoing year, registering a signicant increase over the 50 branches that were present at the beginning of 2012. Subject to approval from the State Bank of Pakistan, we intend to add a similar number of branches to our network in 2013. Our service quality is the key differentiator. Based on this, we intend to compete with all other banks, not just the Islamic banks. BRR: How have deposits and advances for the Bank performed in the outgoing year? AK: The deposit growth has been phenomenal, registering a 80 percent increase in deposits in 2012. At the same time, we have brought down the cost of funds. We have grown across the country and have a very healthy ADR of 63 percent. It is very easy to invest in government securities when the interest rates are high. But that is not what the banks are there for; it does not spur the economy. Banks should be creating assets by building advances so that it generates a healthy economic cycle. Naturally, lending to the private sector comes with risks, but in banking we are in the business of taking intelligent, prudent and properly evaluated risks. BRR: What is the mix of your branches in terms of geographical placement? Some of the banks are focussing heavily in the rural segment from the nancial inclusion angle. What is Burj Banks view? AK: We follow the standard 2:1 urban rural ratio. Some of our peer banks have been quite aggressive in rural areas, which is one way of bringing the unbanked under the banking umbrella. But that is not the only way.
Another way is to tap those residing on the outskirts of major cities like Karachi, which is what we have done. We are also considering alternative distribution channels, including mobile banking. We have started with non-transactional services on cellular phones and will provide transactional services from next year. BRR: Deposit creation is not much of an issue but building the asset side is, especially the lending part. How do you cope with it in the current low interest rate scenario? AK: Yes, the deposits are coming in but we have to be careful at what cost they are coming in. We have done well on this front, building deposits and bringing the cost of funds down at the same time. On the ipside, there is still business in the private sector amongst the blue chip companies. We are providing cash management and investment banking services to large corporates and building clientele in the SME sector at the same time. We believe opportunities still exist in trade nance and consumer lending. There is demand from the private sector but banks have to put in the effort to differentiate a good bet from a bad one. After all, the core function of all banks is lending, not investing in government paper. We have worked hard on risk management and as a result, our NPLs are signicantly lower than the industry average. BRR: What are the consumer products that Burj Bank offers? AK: We have been offering car nancing for a little over year. Last month we nanced about 300 cars and have also signed an agreement with Honda to facilitate car buyers. But we are expanding cautiously on this front. So far, the delinquencies under this head are under one percent, but we will continue monitoring the portfolio as it matures. We are also conducting research to assess the feasibility of home nancing. We believe that Islamic banks have an inherent advantage in these realms because asset-backed lending makes it easier to deal with recovery issues. BRR: How much of an impediment is the lack of avenues on the investment sides? AK: It is an impediment as we only have Sukuks to invest in. We are working with the SBP to create more instruments, but that is not a Pakistan-specic phenomenon. There is a dearth of Islamic instruments globally. We also invest through equity placements as these are permissible under Shariah, as long as the equities are also Shariah compliant.
The core function of all banks is lending, not investing in Government paper. We have worked hard on risk management and as a result, our NPLs are signicantly lower than the industry-average
25
DEPOSIT GROWTH PERCENT IN CY12
BRANCHES IN CY12
80 63
PERCENT
BANKING REVIEW 2012 / January 28, 2013
CY 12 ADR
INTERVIEW BY:
Page 31
14 36
Wasim Sai rejoined Standard Chartered Bank in January 2011 as the Global Head of Islamic Consumer Banking. In July 2012, he was also appointed as Chief Executive Ofcer of Standard Chartered Malaysias wholly-owned Islamic banking subsidiary Standard Chartered Saadiq . He had earlier served the bank for 17 years in Mumbai, Dubai and Colombo.
noble consideration that our religion discourages people from taking on debt to fund consumerism, he said adding, but regulators have to be mindful that this door is wide open for conventional personal nance, while the Islamic banks do not have commensurate mechanisms. He contended that since Islamic banks are limited in their ability to offer personal nance solutions to clientele; many individuals and businesses that would prefer to inculcate a relationship with an Islamic bank, remain unable to do so since all their needs cannot be met by that institution. In terms of business nance, Islamic banks can provide some solutions like Murabaha for export nancing, but cannot lend for working capital requirements. So a business will not receive end-to-end services like it could receive from the conventional banks he said. I believe we owe it to our customers to collectively work towards providing Islamic solutions for such needs so that they can exercise their choice of opting for Islamic banking, without hassle or fear of losing out on critical services which they expect from their bank. Highlighting the strengths of Standard Chartered in the Islamic banking arena, he said, In the international space, we are the only bank with end-to-end Islamic banking on our platform; from mass-market retail banking to international private banking. We offer comprehensive services to SMEs including an electronic platform for trade and cash management. We even have Shariah-compliant NOSTRO accounts in Euro and US Dollar.
INTERVIEW BY:
Page 32
Poverty stands as a towering challenge for the global economy, particularly developing economies. It is an unacceptable human condition, but poverty is not unassailable; public policy and actions can, and must eliminate poverty. Micronance as a tool and mechanism for poverty alleviation has enormous potential and needs to be well understood. Traditionally, poverty alleviation was considered to be a charitable function and NGOs and donor provided subsistence to the underprivileged, while governments launched income support programs more because of political clout than anything else. But in more recent times, there has been a paradigm shift and policy makers are of the opinion that poverty can only be eliminated by providing means of earning livelihood to the poor. Dont give me sh tell me how to catch the sh". Micronance refers to the provision of a whole range of nancial services to low income earners, who can utilize the funding to nance their businesses, acquire household assets, improve consumption, and invest in health, education, fund emergencies and social obligations. In the past decade, micronance has been recognized as an effective development intervention for at least four basic reasons.
Services provided can be targeted specically at the poor and poorest of the poor. Economic growth and job creation can be stimulated, as small business development and access to housing nance generates new cycles of accumulation and contributes to higher levels of effective demand. These services can make a signicant contribution to the socio-economic status of the targeted community. Poverty can be reduced, as access to nance, in the form of saving and credit in the hand of poor; can enable them to build assets. Other services, such as insurance provide reasonable certainty to the income of the poor and reduce their vulnerability to economic shocks. By supporting womens economic participation, micronance helps not only to empower women but also enable them to participate in economic activity. The institutions that deliver these services can develop, within a few years, into sustainable institutions with growing outreach.
Page 34
Micronance in Pakistan has come a long way since 2000 and is gradually mainstreaming into the formal banking system. Eight MFBs have been established, including transformation of three micronance institutions, and two of the worlds largest MFIs have started operations in Pakistan. In Pakistan out of 18 million people about 30 percent are living below the poverty line. The pattern of growth in our country has always been pro-elite and pro-rich which has resulted in lop-sided growth of the national economy. We must understand that there are two pre-requisites to ensure that the benets of growth reach the poor.
Generation of massive employment opportunities for the poor and under privileged. Enhancing the consumption power of the poor.
The importance of micronance, therefore, cannot be overemphasized. Being cognizant of this fact, the Government of Pakistan promulgated Micro Finance Ordinance 2001. SBP introduced Prudential Regulations for MFIs, and took a number of other initiatives like, nancial inclusion program; institutional strengthening fund and micronance credit guarantee facility. Commercial banks are traditionally reluctant to nance small loans, mainly because of high transaction costs and lack of expertise to handle this kind of loans. Instead of considering this an additional opportunity for investment, they consider it as a losing proposition. So far, while none of the commercial banks or leasing companies has created a specialized micronance subsidiary, a couple of them have ventured into this market. Micronance market is dominated by women entrepreneurs, therefore, FWBL has a big opportunity but a lot of home work needs to be done. We must not forget that nancing is only one component, though very critical, but only one element of the value chain. The technical and institutional support mechanism, infrastructure facilities, technological absorption, and last but not the least well-trained human resource must all complement and supplement nancing. To drive holistic efforts towards poverty alleviation and inclusive growth, the Government, central bank and tax ofcials must be clear about what micronance is all about, and how it can contribute to the national economy and welfare. They should be able to differentiate between social assistance programs and sustainable micronance operations. Priority actions include:
Developing a supportive policy and legal environment to encourage the entry of new MFIs Simplifying regulatory, supervisory and tax requirements System should be able to accommodate different institutional structures Developing industry performance standards and a clear nancial reporting system that encourages sound management and nancial responsibility of MFIs
Photo courtesy: Alana McConnon, Google images
Incentives/disincentives for commercial banks to provide micronance Special emphasis on human resource training in the specic elds of operations
Commercial banks are traditionally reluctant to nance small loans, mainly because of high transaction costs and lack of expertise to handle this kind of loans
Currently, the MFIs are barely scratching the surface of overall demand. The current outreach of two million borrowers is less than 10 percent of the potential market. Banks ought to view nancing the poor not only as a social service but also as an additional opportunity for protable investment. The main challenges faced by micro inance providers are high transaction cost, limited outreach, small size of loan, limited product and services, small size of each loan, loan quality and leverage and effective rate of interest charged. To address these challenges, the micronance sector needs to be more innovative, more efcient, more transparent, more institutionalized. The average loan size in Pakistan is around Rs15,000 which is 30 percent of the domestic per capita income. In other comparable regions the same ratio ranges between 50 and 150 percent. The relatively small loan size compared to high transaction costs makes the proposition unviable for MFIs. They will have to increase the average loan size to remain sustainable. From the cost structure we are at par with South Asian providers and much lower than developed countries. But our MFIs are still unprotable because they are highly under-leveraged. Only 40 percent of their balance sheets are used for loans, while the rest is invested in government securities.
Sajjad Hussain is a former banker and has taught at the Institute of Bankers Pakistan. He holds a Masters Degree from Government College University Lahore and MBA from California, USA. He can be reached at: sajjad_100@hotmail.com
Working with the population at the bottom of the economic pyramid requires unique skills. As such, the human resources development challenges in micronance are different from other sectors. MFIs need relationship managers with experience and knowledge of local economic structures, business activities and the social environment. Structuring of loans has to be cognizant of cash conversion cycles. Remember, you will never nd two small businesses exactly alike as in the game of bridge two identical hands are never received, no matter how many million hands you have played.
Page 35
Deposits Growth
12 BILLION 18 BILLION
RUPEES
RUPEES
TOWARDS SELF-SUSTAINABILITY
Advances Growth
09 BILLION 10 BILLION
RUPEES
Advances by the Bank had hovered just under Rs9 billion at the beginning of 2012. We have ended the year with over Rs10 billion in advances revealed the Bank President. She also added that deposits have grown from Rs12 billion to Rs18 billion over the same period.
But the Bank is bullish on its upcoming gold deposits product. Under this offering, people can deposit their gold with the Bank and obtain advances against these deposits, she said expressing hope that the product will be well received by women who often keep a major portion of their We have partnered with UNIDO and savings in the form of this SMEDA this year, and together we are precious metal. Once the product is rolled out, First Womens Bank conducting training courses for women will be the second bank in the who come to us for business loans. This country, after National Bank of way, we are not only giving them the Pakistan with such an offering.
seed capital to start their own ventures; we are also developing the relevant skills to maximize their chances of success
RUPEES
But FWBL is not entirely immune to the macro economic conditions of the country. The consistent reductions in the discount rate have thinned the spreads for the Bank, impacting protability in the outgoing year. Yet the Bank expects to break past Rs100 million in prots for CY12. There is still much ground to be made up before the Bank can meet the minimum capital requirement mandated by the State Bank of Pakistan. But the Bank President is sure that the current pace of growth and an accomadative stance by the Government of Pakistan and SBP will ensure its long-term sustainability. Emphasizing the Banks niche, Sultana stressed, in a country where women face many hurdles in entering the work force, we have provided jobs to scores of young professional women, helped thousands others set up their own businesses and provided distinguished performers to the corporate sector. The Bank added four new branches to its countrywide network in CY12. In the upcoming year, the Bank is planning to set up another
FWBL is currently implementing new automated internal controls. Once the transformation is complete, the Bank intends to launch into branchless banking. In the initial stages, clients will be able to pay utility bills, check account balances and make transfers online. As we expand, we will try to develop a larger spectrum of offerings that can be availed without having to come into a branch, said the Bank President. We are really looking forward to the introduction of branchless banking because women are often hurdled by mobility issues and cannot make frequent trips to a branch. Branchless banking will let them keep a regular check on their accounts, dues and receipts without making the trip contended Shafqat Sultana. The Bank is also gelling insurance plans with its existing offerings of educational and healthcare loans.
Page 36
In three years, Easypaisa now has a network of more than 20,000 Easypaisa shops across 700 cities in Pakistan; making it the largest nancial services network in the country. This number is twice the total number of bank branches, and four times the number of total ATMs in the country.
Roar Bjaerum is the Vice President, Fiancial Services for Telenor, Pakistan.
Page 37
Informal nance:
Chasing the shadows
Sidra Farrukh and Sijal Fawad
Out of a population of nearly 200 million, only about 15 percent have bank accounts, in Pakistan. Who is fullling the nancial needs of the remaining nearly 85 percent of the population or more considering not all account holders will borrow from banks who have not seen as much as the face of a bank teller? Its the informal lenders. Sources of informal lending include friends and relatives, bania, arthi and landlords in villages. Informal lending for consumption goods also takes place in the open retail market, particularly for electronic products, through an undocumented installment plan. Women in Pakistan have also invented a unique informal borrowing method called auntie committees whereby women in a particular location pool in a xed sum every month, and the total collected each month is handed over to a pre-decided person or through a lucky draw. While these kitty parties are more for the reason of social get together, there are some more business oriented boli wali committees prevalent in small to medium size trader communities that work through an auction process, which is a dynamic game with changing interest rates according to the needs and liquidity of participants. Besides these, local foreign exchange agents also sometimes provide loans to people who have insufcient funds to send overseas. It is believed that the amount of money changing hands through these informal means is comparable to that owing in the formal sector. This is evident from the fact that banking deposits in Pakistan are less than one-third of GDP. The Government debt to GDP ratio is double the banking deposits base, partially explaining crowding out of the private sector and reluctance of lazy bankers to reach the informal sector. Also, to evade taxes and keep black money off the radar, many businessmen do not opt for the formal banking sector. According to some studies, the informal economy of Pakistan is half the size of the formal i.e. close to $100 billion. Any effort to enhance documentation in the economy, such as tax amnesty schemes and doing away with legal investigations for money being remitted into Pakistan, could help in increasing banking density. Besides these, low literacy also explains low penetration in the formal sector. Literacy status can also inuence farmers' access to formal credit institutions because literate farmers are assumed to have better technical know-how and information about the market. They (also) have a better understanding of bureaucratic procedures involved in the application, acquisition and repayment of loans, explained Shehla Amjad and S.A.F. Hasnu in a 2007 research paper on rural credit.
Adults with an account at a formal nancial institution Pakistan India Bangladesh 10% 35% 40%
Adults borrowing from a formal nancial institution in the past year 2% 8% 23%
Ironically, the recovery rate of these informal loans is quite high, and in the case of interest-based informal lending, the interest rate people end up paying is exuberantly high. Many cultural, religious and economic factors explain why informal lending continues to be a leading choice for the borrowing needs of many. Firstly, a general religious aversion towards interest (riba) keeps many people at bay from bank borrowing or putting deposits in savings accounts. The term sood khor (interest taker) is considered an abuse, and even though interest-based informal lending does take place in communities, it is never discussed in the open because of the stigma attached to interest. In addition, with Pakistans ill-dened property rights, it is not uncommon to nd more than one owner of a single piece of land, especially in rural and low-income urban areas. Because of this, people do not have legitimate assets to present as collateral to banks. In fact, many established sectors of Pakistan, such as road and housing construction, are not even given overdraft limits by banks because of a lack of legal, documented assets for collateral. Banks themselves are shy of lending to the general populace because of poor foreclosure laws and inadequate capacity of banking courts which often favor the borrower over the lender.
The writer is a Research Analyst at Business Recorder. She can be reached at: sijal.fawad@br-mail.com The writer works as Research Analyst at Business Recorder. She can be reached at sidra.farrukh@br-mail.com
Page 38