中国钢铁行业分析报告

.
200796
2005 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential
50021

Research of National Industry Program
2

200612.434%

2000-2006
1400
5-Year CAGR = 7%
1200
1067
847
600
400
1132
420
968
1000
800
1240
283
221
350
34%
31%
127
15%
720
747
784
782
820
2000
2003
2004
2005
2006
200
0
Rest of World (01-05 CAGR 2%)

4
China (01-05 CAGR 24%)


2006
20061440
5
2006552005
817%
10
10
2006
2005
63.66
49.89
2
3
4
5
6
JFE
54.32
33.7
32.02
31.2
22.53
46.65
32.91
29.57
31.42
22.73
21.52
19.26
8
9
10
20.31
19.06
18.3
18.45
16.08
18.18
16
17
18
22
24
25
26
27
28
35
37
38
15
14.63
13.76
12.48
11.24
10.91
10.79
10.55
9.91
7.92
7.55
7.49
11.9
12.02
13.05
11.65
10.43
9.65
10.34
10.44
8.45
7.34
6.51
7.02
01-06
Million Tonnes
450
27%
400
350
20064.219%
25%19%
20071-62.4
18.9%2.079.6%
20064300 31%
22%
300
19%
19%
20%
15%
151.63
10%
100
5%
50
0
0%
2001
2002
2003
Crude Steel
2004
2005
2006
Crude Steel Growth Rate
Source: China Statistical Abstract 2007
05-06
40
25%
282.91
150
CVRD
20128%
25%
182.37
200
50
353.24
222.34
20063.318%
20071.98%
20%
250
30%
418.78
Million Tonnes
43.0
45
37.2
35
29.3
30
25.0
25
20
20.5
17.2
18.5
14.2
15
10
25.8
4.7
5.5
7.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Import
Export
0
2005
2006
2007
Deloitte
Touche Statistics
LLP. Private and Confidential
Source: CES
Import
and&Export

2006
()
()
()
82.5
20.4%
91.0
21.5%
84.7
17.9%
33.5
8.3%
42.0
9.9%
58.2
12.3%
37.5
9.3%
38.0
9.0%
39.9
8.4%
43.3
10.7%
37.1
8.8%
40.9
8.6%
31.5
7.8%
19.4
4.6%
16.6
3.5%
16.4
4.1%
19.0
4.5%
21.3
4.5%
14.6
3.6%
17.4
4.1%
17.7
3.7%
15.8
3.9%
16.6
3.9%
16.9
3.6%
11.8
2.9%
12.9
3.1%
13.2
2.8%
11.3
2.8%
12.9
3.0%
20.8
4.4%
10.9
2.7%
11.9
2.8%
11.5
2.4%
9.5
2.3%
11.6
2.8%
12.4
2.6%
5.9
1.5%
9.0
2.1%
17.9
3.8%
10.8
2.7%
8.6
2.0%
8.1
1.7%
7.8
1.9%
8.2
1.9%
10.4
2.2%
4.3
1.1%
5.3
1.3%
5.8
1.2%
4.2
1.0%
4.7
1.1%
8.4
1.8%
2.3
0.6%
4.6
1.1%
11.4
2.4%
2.6
0.6%
3.2
0.7%
2.9
0.6%
404.2
100%
422.66
100.0%
473.4
100.0%
: 2007
7
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
Tibet
Gansu
Ningxia
Inner
Qinghai
Xinjiang
Hainan
Guangxi
Yunnan
Guizhou
Jiangxi
Shanxi
Sichuan
Anhui
Shaanxi
Henan
Hunan
Jilin
Heilongjiang
Hubei
Chongqing
Hebei
Fujian
Shangdong
Liaoning
Guangdong
Tianjin
Jiangsu
Zheijang
Beijing
Shanghai
0
8
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800

20062150051
4
20069100034%
1000*
1000
2006 2005
(%)
()
()
2004
35%
()
30%
64.7
22.6
18.4
16.8
25%
85.41
22.5
23.8
21.4
20%
61.31
19.1
16.1
7.7
14.6
10.5
7.6
15%
10%
75.81
13.8
12
9.3
76.6
11.2
10.4
6.9
62.50
10.9
9.6
8.0
78.01
10.8
10.3
6.6
5%
0%
2001
2002
81.19
10.6
10.4
8.5
55.37
6.2
6.0
2005
2004
: International Iron & Steel Institute (IISI)
2003
2006
SWOT
R&D
1%
10

20061035%
20054
55%474%

2006
Top 1
5.39
Top 5
%
22.1
Top 10
34.85
Top 20
50.11
Top 50
72.89
Top 70
79.97
Small mills
Exc. Top 70
20.03
0
20
Source: Mysteel.com

11
60
80
100
(2006)

3%97%
45%50%
40
()
()
(%)
(%)
60
37
21
23
19
40
Source: NDRC
10

10201050%
202070%
201015500
70%
50%

35%
2005
2010
2020
1000
100

/
200741576
5%2007520

201020%
12
20103000
20061.076
25.6%
-
2600
Urumuqi

2300

2200

1360

2300
13
14
15
100%
20072012
500
200
2007941.2
81.6
80.2%
78.32%
02-06
2006-1-18
2006-3-11
2006-4-29
2007-1-1630
74%
8
54%
50%
79.8%
39.4%
100%
55.5%
200
180
2002-2006 CAGR
Revenue =23.5%
Net profit =34.0%
RMB billion
176.2
180.7
161.8
160
140
120.4
120
100
80
2007-5-11
60
2007-7-23
20
77.7
40
4
12.7
7.8
11.4
12.9
0
2002
2003
2004
Revenue
16
2005
2006
Net profit
Source: Group Financial Report

20108000
50050
500200
17

300500
2008
20073
FMG
2000
SWOT
50%

70%
8%
50-60

75%
10%2000
2007

18
2007532.86
12.29%260.40
38.18%34.23
170.98%
2006
2006
80%

--
--
01-05
RMB billion
70
68.2
60
60
57.9
50
47.0
45.2
46.7
46.5
50
40.1
40
40
27.3
30
20
70
30
19.8
18.2
20
7.0
10
1.0
7.0
2.7
1.5
10
0
0
2001
2002
2003
Sales Revenue
2004
Total Profit
2005
Total Asset
Source: Group Financial Report, ISI
2006
200781
20051219
()
20051
19
88%
12%
0.5%
20
201030001000
500
201030%20%70%

2006822
14228
SWOT
80%

50%
2005
129
262465
80%

10
1.8 20
10 70 ,
14
21
20058
,,
OutputK ton
25,000.00
2000
1000
20,000.00
20062255.76
10,000.00
15,000.00
5,000.00
OutputK ton
2005
2006
18,410.00
22,550.00
AH
AB
20032005
150.00
8.00
100.00
6.00
50.00
4.00
2.00
2003
2004
2005
2003
2004
2005
Revenue RMB billion Benxi Steel

Revenue RMB billion Anshan Steel
Profit (RMB billion) Anshan Steel
Profit (RMB billion) Benxi Steel
:
22
20103000
500

2005
20103000
23
20065500
500
20074(75%)(25%)
200
12.94100
20
SWOT
,
,
2006
2256

40%

,,
24
2007228
576
1,607
953
20061,8211906
169624%19%
14%
2006
1906 18
1821 24
93
2001-2005
621
278
2080
37.6
30
27.7
25
20
15
*200610
35
21.9
14.8
25.1
16.5
8.3
0.5
35
30
25
20
15
14.9
10
5
30.2
40
9.6
0.63
1.22
2.02
1.86
10
5
0
2001
2002
2003
Sales Revenue (RMB Billion)
2004
2005
Total Profit (RMB Billion)
Total Assets (RMb Billion)

25

,
()
()
26
(),
,25,
350
700/(250
)071200/(420
)0880%
50%
SWOT
0538%07
54%
2007
6
1000
/1520353000
27
100
20102010
20002100
80

67051%
40
60
20
87.4
80.6
61.9
47.9
1.2
1.0
1.2
2.7
0
2003
2004
Sales Revenue (RMB B)
2005
2006
Total Profit (RMB B)
28

2010
1
,
,
2010
970913898
20084852010

()
800 730

29
SWOT
50%
10%

44
ERP
60%,
2008
30
400

17
370%
30
01-06
RMB billion
20067
20062206872
29812.5
50
50
43.0
38.6
40
33.7
27.4
30
30
22.8
20
20
14.8 17.1
7.1
10
11.6 8.2
0.4
13.3
10
2.1
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.9
0
2001
2002
2003
Sales Revenue
40
2004
2005
Total Profit
2006
Total Asset
Source: Group Financial Report
01-06
RMB billion
50
44.2
39.1
40
29.3
30
40
34.0
30.4
30
20
31
10
0
50
20
6.3
11.6 7.2 12.7
0.2
2001
13 15.9
0.3
2002
Sales Revenue
10
0.4
2003
1.7
1.6
2.2
0
2004
Total Profit
Source: Group
Financial
2007
Deloitte &Report
Touche LLP.
2005
2006
Total Asset
Private and Confidential
1H2007
607.4
18.5%
575.3
13.9%
526.2
18.0%
539.2
15.8%
618.9
27.1%
556.1
15.0%
244.7
20.5%
266.9
27.9%
29.6
48.1%
41.8
115.1%
15.9
82.2%
25.2
197.4%
83.4
4.4%
98.8
N/A
4.3
42.2%
4.8
N/A
32
1000
3000
1000
33
2010
1000
2007143
2007155
SWOT
2007
143
2007155
34
200716
172.837.61

80%
20%

01-05
RMB billion
35
35
30.9
30
26.4
25
25
23
22.9
21.8
20
30
20
15
15
12.3
10.3
10.2
10
10
5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.9
0
2001
2002
2003
2005
Sales Revenue
Profit
Asset
SourceCompany
data, Total
Credit
Suisse Total
estimates.
Source: Group Financial Report, ISI
35
36

2006111
5%
SWOT

80%

2006

35%
90%
37
50%

15
51%
A;
SH 600894
2001-2005
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6.7
7.4
7.9
7.2
5.3
10
6.8
8.5
8
6
4
2.6
0
2.1
0.02
2.3
0.001
0.3
0.32
2
0
2001
2002
Sales Revenue (RMB Million)
2003
2004
2005
Total Profit (RMB Million)
Total Assets (RMb Million)
38
SWOT

1/4
,
1.5,
1000
2000,
800,
500
50/
39
25
302000
20062312006
50058
13
200779
411
2800mm13800mm11780mm

20
A07
2007
,100
23.1
20.6
20
17.9
15
10
5
0.28
0.7
0.12
0
2004
2005
Revenue
2006
Net profit
2006
80
70
10.21%
60
61.78
71.12
10.78%
8.54%
10.00%
8.00%
50
6.00%
40
30
20
12.00%
4.00%
16.42
2.00%
10
0
0.00%
Revenue
Gross Profit Rate
40
20078
3.77331.5
8.14%
100%100%

1780 1750
300
,
40%60%
20076
41
200779
1780
1000
20035180
300
SWOT
2000150
360
1780mm
1000
,,
,
,
,,
,
,
42

10010%
50%
,,
,20064.2,2007
4.6,
200611,10%,
11%8%,
,,
71.5%19%,2007
9.5%,,
21500
2006
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2004
2005
2005
1,806.8
875.0
553.0
653.6
280.3
413.5
386.1
391.4
230.4
214.0
231.0
260.0
290.0
273.0
210.0
240.8
343.2
129.3
28.60
71.0
99.1
9.6
8.1
19.6
16.3
9.4
3.5
7.0
23.3
14.5
7.7
10.0
15.1
22.8
2,361.8
576.0
722.0
750.9
400.6
569.6
337.3
340.1
309.2
200.0
N/A
373
305.0
414.0
N/A
353.2
548.4
396.1
18.9
343.2
228.9
12.1
229
172.2
131.0
252.3
139.0
13.6
122.2
141.4
22.3
113.0
151.0
7.2
86.5
43
87%
32%
75%
41%
72%
51%
62%
51%
66%
23%
72%
9%
69%
67%
64%
99%
N/A
101%
50%
55%
21%
66%
98%
42%
26%
86%
6%
80%
4%
62%
84%
45%
52%
N/A
64%
50%
55%
19%
19%
27%
43%
40%
44%
23%
63%
61%
33%
34%
N/A
44
2005-2007
30
25
20
Total61
28
20
13
15
10
0
2005
2006
Source: Thomthon Announced
20007(JanAug)
Clompleted
11.8%

25.8%

62.4%

45
20052007817
28%

2006
1000
46
2600300
2010
8000
70%
47
2300
3000
Urumuqi
48
1360
2000
--
Urumuqi
2010
6280
60%2600
49
2600
3000
Urumuqi
50
2200
3000
Urumuqi
51

20077 IPO10
20075160267.HK
()A
55%
52
Mittal Steel
3.5
38.4%

30%
JFE

13
53
IPO
N/A
N/A
54
55
30%
56
40
92
36
96
52
39
13
34
402
2007828
57

TOP10
TOP10
8304985
2711878
1457442
767312
720691
58
378525
113778
94652
90049
63320
3179676
2253617
1170508
330690
290000
228915
208493
156750
136500
73453
TOP10
15.0%
14.3%
13.4%
13.2%
11.0%
9.4%
7.4%
7.2%
6.1%
4.6%

TOP10
TOP10
37607430
26147868
18295619
14866455
7215474
59
4012340
3070809
3042531
2667037
2549466
30214950
20256023
19658220
11697694
8762595
6529246
6116892
5697579
5260826
5019440
TOP10
29.9%
21.6%
21.2%
16.0%
15.9%
15.6%
13.0%
10.6%
9.6%
8.9%

TOP10
TOP10
12174832
3263749
639647
506770
371266
22800000
6554928
1344216
1081500
1065796
833161
530241
312837
256542
255210
TOP10
60
236420
159102
153420
98721
96971
10.7%
10.3%
10.2%
9.5%
7.3%
7.2%
7.2%
7.0%
6.2%
4.5%

TOP10
TOP10
13886668
7911740
7551624
5146927
3422450
61
2388290
2068025
1445817
1229408
939785
11651742
10836330
9532700
3872260
2956400
2775620
2196250
2056113
2041311
1230663
TOP10
11.5%
9.6%
9.2%
9.1%
8.9%
7.7%
7.3%
7.1%
6.2%
6.1%

TOP10
TOP10
68246242
3204602
1759748
1624712
1131990
62
1030191
849259
627448
580001
282532
46495939
4157193
3795560
2537260
1381479
1213000
1088987
1057963
905796
543060
TOP10
15.1%
14.5%
12.4%
11.0%
9.6%
7.8%
7.4%
7.0%
6.2%
5.5%

TOP10
TOP10
8524632
4673057
2704941
631009
435086
63
286175
240843
233180
203268
114546
6749218
6290934
1374704
1007705
685660
554351
535934
533527
319100
173080
TOP10
21.7%
12.2%
11.8%
10.8%
10.5%
9.5%
9.0%
6.2%
5.9%
5.8%
64
4186529
4478105
0.8%
2632646
2244728
9.3%
1995145
1367044
-8.9%
991626
1064177
0.7%
298336
273636
7.0%
203991
338291
-5.0%
181899
8906
-229.0%
160975
180825
-2.0%
120000
269583
0.7%
10
29139
116142
-0.4%
11
16500
20000
0.0%
12
14565
83000
-1.6%
13
5750
17780
4.2%

TOP10
TOP10
6881139
2441471
2161530
1890323
1822614
65
1181439
431391
224380
218672
153397
8195900
4164653
1018570
763118
678360
588529
572776
510223
451967
429850
TOP10
14.1%
4.7%
4.3%
3.7%
3.4%
3.0%
2.9%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
Deloitte & Touche LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
A member firm of
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2005 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Rest of World (01-05 CAGR 2%)

Research of National Industry Program

China (01-05 CAGR 24%)

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Crude Steel Growth Rate

Source: China Statistical Abstract 2007

Research of National Industry Program

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

: International Iron & Steel Institute (IISI)

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

Source: Group Financial Report

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Source: Group Financial Report, ISI

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Revenue RMB billion Benxi Steel

Profit (RMB billion) Anshan Steel

Profit (RMB billion) Benxi Steel

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Sales Revenue (RMB Billion)

Total Profit (RMB Billion)

Total Assets (RMb Billion)

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Research of National Industry Program

2007 Deloitte & Touche LLP. Private and Confidential

Sales Revenue (RMB B)