The

Emergence of Technological Singularity

Compiled by: Meena Samoenaamchai 5380200 & Warasinee Apirakdacharchai 5080048

The Emergence of Technological Singularity

March 31, 2013

Table of Contents TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY BACKGROUND AND ORIGIN DEFINITION AND CONCEPTION APPROACHES TO CAUSE THE EVENT
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

3 4 4 5 6 8

NANOTECHNOLOGY COMPUTER/BRAIN INTERFACES

METHODS CONTRIBUTE TO ENABLE THE EVENT 9 GENETIC ALGORITHM 10 ARTIFICIAL NEURON NETWORK 11 PREDICTIONS 12

ETHICAL COSEQUENCES AND SURVIVAL

13

REFERENCES

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Background and origin

To begin with, the term singularity itself originated from a field of theoretical physics. It refers to a point in space-time in which the gravitational forces causes matter to have an infinite density (Kaku, 2011). In simple terms, it basically means a point where a measured variable becomes unmeasured or infinite value. The concept of technological singularity have been discussed since the 90s, when the science fiction author John W. Campbell wrote about The last evolution that focused on self improving artificial intelligence, which further empowered other talented scientists such as John Von Nuemann, the computer pioneer to debate about the possibility of the singularity, and I.J. Good, the computer scientist to publish a paper on Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligence Machine[2]. Ultimately, the term technological singularity was first coined by Verner Vinge, a mathematician and a science fiction writer who published an article The coming Technological Singularity which was presented as VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute on March 31, 1993[3]. The article was widely disseminated on Internet, which further popularized the term and its idea among the people. All these scientists actually focused on one thing that is intelligence explosion via technology and its progression (Falconer, 2011).

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What exactly is Technological Singularity?

Moving on to the conception of technological singularity, it refers to rate of advancement in technology until it reaches the maximum point. It fundamentally signifies the surpassing of superhuman intelligence or a true artificial intelligence that becomes so intelligent to operate on its own without human interference. To be precise, its defined as The first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make by Irving Good. Although Technology Singularity is a new concept but it has become the typical topic for conversation and debate all over the world (Vinge, 1993). However, this event is a theoretical based and is generally predicted to occur on the proven facts of how rapidly technology develops and human evolution with it have made it increasing difficult to forecast the future.

The major approaches of Technological Singularity

Since we are aware that people of this century have been abundantly relying on technology and its progress and this is the reason to science that has achieved a breakthrough of why and how technological singularity will certainly occur. According to Verner Vinge, there are three possibilities that majorly contribute to the occurrence of this event.

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1. Artificial Intelligence Why? - Firstly, artificial intelligence is not a robotic machine and neither technological singularity means building a robot. Artificial intelligence is just a concept that can be applied to building a robot. However, artificial intelligence here is the first reason that most likely would cause technological singularity because the research notifies that artificial intelligence is a seed and a root to technological singularity, which implies that while artificial intelligence is improving itself beyond human intelligence, and with time it will one day reach the level so called 'superhuman intelligence an intelligent system that is more intelligent that human. Thus, leading to technological singularity (Vinge, 1993). How? - Furthermore, artificial intelligence has begun to have a steady progress and many research are also carried out and discovered almost everyday. According to Ray Kurzweil, a Computer Science graduate from MIT and an author of the non fiction book, The Singularity Is Near: When Human Transcend Biology unified the famous Moores law and described about the exponential growth of technology via artificial intelligence, which will lead to such technology creations that will exceed the computing power of human brain (Vinge, 1993). Additionally, he argued that artificial intelligence will certainly enable the advancement of technology no matter what economic regression and inflation comes in the way. Kurweil also believed that in regards to strong artificial intelligence, we could upload our

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consciousness to computers and live forever as stored information. Artificial intelligence can also receive intelligence amplification via enhancing human-computer interfaces (Kurzweil). Thus, we can also see that artificial intelligence is interdependent with other 2 factors below. Nevertheless we can also observe that to date, we already have build and implement a sort of robot program that enabled the machine to think, communicate and give a practical reason by using three-law of robotic. Such programs proven successful are A.L.I.C.E, the chat robotbox and Deep Blue, the thinking chess machine. Hence, we can have a confident prediction that there is a possibility of building and enhancing the ability of the current intelligent system to superhuman intelligent system with time. In addition to these, we have already discussed above of why and how artificial intelligence will approach technological singularity but we are not certain of what will be implemented using what kind of methods. However, according to what we have discovered and studied, artificial intelligence consists of various approaches and methods such as Heuristic Searches, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and machine learning. 2. Nanotechnology or Human Biological Enhancement As we can learn from the name itself that this factor deals with overcoming or surpassing the human limitations and human performance naturally or artificially. This factor is widely regarded
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to bring technology singularity sooner as compared to other factors. Human Enhancement Technology (HET) is considered to be the most threatening factor for the society. The reasons are discussed below. Why? - Kurzweil is expert in this particular field and he gave a huge and popular speech on human enhancement. He believes that technology under the human biology field will undoubtedly reach the point where man can merge with machine, and he can survive after he die as a cyborg with robotically enhanced features. This feature attempts to upload the consciousness of a man onto a hard drive, enabling him to live forever as bits of information stored indefinitely (Wordpress). This implies that he will have a copy of himself in case the computer fails. In simple terms, it indicates the life after death. Moreover, he is also confident about the emerging of Alcor Life Extension Foundation in next 50 years. This is a technology attempts to deep-freeze the dead body who have died of incurable cure and in the hope to live when the cure arrives (Wordpress). Besides this, he discovered the movement called Transhumanism, which is defined by the belief that nanotechnology will ultimately replace human biology, and get rid of all disease and aging (Wordpress). Therefore, with no existence of aging and disease would eventually prevent death immortal. How? Kurzweil elaborated about the nanotechnology revolution, which refers to a type of technology that will manipulate matter on an atomic and molecular scale, potentially allowing us to reassemble matter in a variety of ways. He was

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certain that nanotechnology will give us the ability to create tiny size robots that can clean our blood cells and eliminate disease. He also thinks nanotechnology will enable us to produce anything by assembling it through nanobots (self propelled machine that can reproduce) For example, nanotechnology will enable us to email physical things like clothing, much like we can currently email audio-files (Kurzweil). What is more is that intelligence enhancement through novel chemical drugs and genetic engineering may also become a possibility for existing humans. Newborn babies may be given genetic intelligence enhancements as well. A very common and mainstream topic about the proposal of upcoming nanotechnology is mind uploading. It is a proposed alternative means of creating artificial intelligence; instead of programming an intelligent system, it would instead be bootstrapped by an existing human intelligence that is exist within human intelligence. 3. Computer/Human Interfaces or Brain/Computer Interfaces This factor may cause an approach to technological singularity. However, the research showed no strong debate on this factor. Brain and Computer Interfaces (BCI) is a direct communication pathway between the brain and an external device as its name says. Why? - Here again Kurzweil, recently hired on at Google as a director of engineering, who has been predicting that not only
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will machine intelligence exceed our own, but people will be able to download their thoughts and memories into computers and many scientists think its possible, in theory, for a computer to equal the brain given sufficient computer power and an understanding of how the brain works (Kurzweil). Thus, if we can download or upload our thoughts to computer and vice versa then the computer or an intelligent system would just be as intelligent as human. Therefore, this is one analyzed reason BMI perhaps can approach technological singularity. How? - Direct brain-computer interfaces may potentially improve an individual's memory, computational capacity, communication abilities, and knowledge base. A more traditional human-computer interfaces may also be seen as intelligence augmenting improvements: traditional expert systems, computer systems recognizing and predicting human patterns of behavior, speech and handwriting recognition software, etc (inanot.com, 2005). It might take time as compared to the other two factors but if an intelligent system or a computer possesses these qualities mentioned above; it would be just considered another entity. Moreover, in order to for this factor to approach technological singularity, it would need large improvement in computer hardware rather than on software. There are several researches going on over BMI although little new discoveries have been made to date.

The theories and concepts that can be contributed to Technological Singularity

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As the paper mentioned in the earlier paragraph, the theories and concepts that will assist and influence the developing of technological singularity to its success can help us understand more and more ability that machine can do as human develop and improve the technology. Two of the major concepts that convey the success of this discussing theory are ANN and GA. ANN is a study of how human brain works and tries to implement by using a neuron network, a mathematical model, which consists of interconnected group of artificial neurons. These neurons are functioning by computation of transfer function with input, output and hidden nodes as its attributed. In other words, ANN is able to compute the output by following the real life concept of biological neuron network in human brain. Moreover, it follows the concept of machine learning where three main aspects and can be achieved are computational, recognition and reasoning tasks. Up to today, many applications are build upon the use of ANN; from a character to the retina to finger print recognizers recognition software (Brainz learn something, 2012).

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Figure 1: ANN schematic diagram GA is a heuristic searches to optimize the solution be building a model of machine learning, which derives it concepts or behaviors divined by the process of evolutionary biology. GA can achieve several aspects such as the computer of ultimate hardware that can support the complex software in order to build technological singularity (Brainz learn something, 2012). Up to today, there are many real life applications using genetic algorithm to help with its building and constructing process, for instance, GA that involves in optimize the design of engineering design, as shown in figure 2.

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Figure 2: parts designed by using GA With all the technologies we have, there is a great possibility that we will be able to see technological singularity we are coming closer and closer to it.

The prediction of the occurrence of Technological Singularity

Many scientists and theorists have came up with many prediction of when the technological singularity will be seen as an real life application, based on many aspects and theories. However, three main period of time are predicted for its success. Short range (present to 2029): Some scientists and theorists believed that the technology has arrived us from
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now, which is 2013, to 2029. It is first begun with a technology historian, Henry Adams, who proposed a phase change through time between 1921- 2025. Following by Nick Hoggard, he has narrowed the gap of this global parse change to 2001-2004 by advancing an interesting paper and mathematical model. A famous Verner Vinge, a person who made the term widely known as well, believes in this prediction. His passage from the book 'The Coming technological Singularity' stated that the events would occur in a time between 2005- 2029. Other than these three, there are till more that fall into this category (Vinge, 1993). Mid Range (2030 -2080): In 2000, a paper, 'On the Fractal Structure of Evolutionary Trees', is published by Laurent Nottale (an astrophysicist), Jean Chaline (a paleontologist), and Pierre Grou (an economist), which models universal, life, and economic development all on a fractal and log-periodic acceleration, said the occurrence of this technology will be in the range of 2080 30 years (2050-2110) (Accerelation Foundation Studies). In 2001, another paper, 'Significance of logperiodic precursors to financial crashes', was published by Didier Sornette (a complex systems researcher), and Anders Johansen (a physicist) Their model gives a critical time for global phase change at 2050 10 years (2040-2060) (Vinge, 1993). Longer Range (2081 2150+): Theorist Richard

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Coren and the economist Robin Hansen who makes a similar prediction with regard to an "economic singularity", believed that there must be a better concepts and technique before the success can be achieve from this technology (Accerelation Foundation Studies).

What about Ethical problem? What if they rebel?

There is a question towards technological singularity which is that if it possible for the machines when we implemented these theories until they become so smart that one day will awake and rebel against human. To start off, it not right to say it is impossible. For century, human has involved in a similar kind of this technology without knowing, for instance, the 'Calculational Singularity' in late 90s. According to Acceleration Studies Foundation (ASF), they refer it as 'a human-surpass module of machine intelligence', which prove that human brain has slower switching in computational tasks. It cannot be said that they are smarter than us, but they are indeed better than us in this (Vinge, 1993). Things change around us everyday without we noticing. Many events or situations that used to be called odd became common. Some people may not understand we will still need to change, and this is for both small simple things like a digital toy to complex machine. Referring to Newitz, she describes technological singularity as The moment when a civilization changes so much that its rules and technologies are incomprehensible to previous generations (io9 welcome to the

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future, 2013). This simple mean that old generation will worry of the new technology or the new changes. However, the machine or technology will be build by human and performing tasks according to its purpose. So the machine can become extraordinary smart if we can program them to keep on learning new things, which the main purpose is to learn and compute solution from complex equations for human. In the case of rebel, like many are worries as they have seen in the movie, this is because the robot also follow it purpose. If purpose could turn to harm us then, the machines might take their ways. Hereby human control, it could be depends on us to program them. Thus, it is up to human to accept these new rules even if it may not turn as we expected which is basically already a rule of life. As Vernor Vinge described singularity in his essay of Technological Singularity It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules. As we move closer to this point, it will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown (Vinge, 1993).

References

Wordpress. (n.d.). Retrieved March 2013, 29, from The Technological Citizen: http://thetechnologicalcitizen.com/ Vinge, V. (1993, March 31). The Technological Singularity. Whole Earth Review .

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(2005). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from inanot.com: http://inanot.com/technologicalsingularity.php Accerelation Foundation Studies. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from http://www.accelerationwatch.com/singtimingpredictions.ht ml Brainz learn something. (2012). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from Brainz.org: http://brainz.org/15-real-world-applicationsgenetic-algorithms/ Falconer, J. (2011, July 19). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from The Next Web, Inc.: http://thenextweb.com/insider/2011/06/19/what-is-thetechnological-singularity/ io9 welcome to the future. (2013). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from Gawker Media 2013: http://io9.com/5534848/what-is-thesingularity-and-will-you-live-to-see-it Kurzweil, R. (n.d.). TED . Retrieved March 29, 2013, from TED Conferences, LLC: http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_announces_singularit y_university.html Kaku, M. (2011, February 26). Retrieved March 29, 2013, from Big Think Smarter Faster: http://bigthink.com/dr-kakus-

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universe/the-technological-singularity-and-merging-withmachines

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