Project (Assignment III)

ANALYSIS OF QUEUEING SYSTEMS THE CASE OF APSEZL WEST PORT COAL TERMINAL
A report Submitted to

Prof. Girja Sharan

In partial fulfillment of the requirements of the course

SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION

1/12/2013 By Group 1 PGPIM 4

ADANI INSTITUTE OF INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT - AHMEDABAD

Introduction: Queues are a very common occurrence in day to day life. The queues are generally formed by the variation in the service times and the variations in demand. Analysis of queues leads to analysis of the financial and operational side of the business. The below such problem is one such live issue of queue. The study deals with the queuing of vessels at APSEZL in Mundra. Problem Description: APSEZL in Mundra is the largest private port and special economic zone in India. Various commodities are exported and imported from the APSEZL throughout the year. West Port is a dedicated coal bulk terminal where coal vessels (ship) from abroad are unloaded. The terminal caters to an average coal quantity of 14500MT/vessel and an average number of vessels per month of 14 to 16. The vessel arriving have to wait at the anchorage point before they are scheduled to be unloaded. After this, the vessels go to the terminal and the coal is unloaded with help of 2 cranes as shown. The cranes unload the coal and transfer it to the conveyors leading to the storage area. It takes an average of 3 days with 2 cranes for the unloading of a vessel. The forecasted demand is to serve an average number of 20 vessels /month. The management is weighing the options of increasing the number of cranes (unloader) or continues with the existing system. Visual Diagram of system: The system at APSEZL West Port, comprises of anchorage area, unloading cranes and the vessels. The coal carrying vessel approaches directly the unloading cranes only when there is no queue, otherwise the vessel waits at anchorage till its time of sequence. At the unloading bay, the cranes (unloaders) unload the coal and then depart from APSEZL. The visual diagram can be represented as follows: The queue length will depend on the inter arrival time gap of the vessels and also on the service time taken for unloading the vessel. From the analysis of the problem, we can conclude on the waiting times and thus the performance requirement.

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Constructing Simulation Model: The requirement of the process emphasizes on simulation model. The performance parameters that need to be studied are average waiting time, average utilization and average waiting vessels. We need to simulate the arrival of the vessels at the APSEZL, their queuing process, if any and their servicing at the unloading bay with the help of cranes. From the visual diagram, we can understand that the inter-arrival times and service times are critical parameters of the system. Thus, the most important step for developing the simulation model is the modeling of the arrival times and the service times. Once these parameters are modeled, the other performance attributes can be easily devised through the simulation model. The simulation model will simulate the inter-arrival times and service times depicting a near real-life scenario and the performance parameters like average utilization and average waiting vessels will be studied. The results will be analyzed to evaluate the concern put forth by the management. The following section details the modeling of the inter-arrival times and service times.

Estimating the parameters for the Model: The inter arrival times and service times are the critical parameters of the system and they need to be modeled for developing the simulation model. Modeling the Inter-arrival times: Fourteen inter-arrival times were observed and noted down and are given in appendix 1. These inter-arrival times were analyzed in the following manner. We need to fit a distribution to this inter-arrival time data. Firstly, as these times are continuous in nature, the distribution must be a continuous distribution. Secondly, the inter-arrival times can never take negative values. Thus, the distribution must be a strictly positive distribution. Thirdly, the inter-arrival times cannot take infinite values (time between arrivals of two vessels cannot be infinite). The distribution must conform to this requirement too. The following process was followed to achieve the same. a) The average inter-arrival time was determined. b) The inter-arrival times were divided into intervals of 20 hrs each and a histogram of the frequency of occurrence was obtained. (Appendix 2) c) This histogram was found to closely resemble the exponential distribution. This distribution satisfies our requirements of being a continuous distribution and of having strictly positive values. For infinite values, the probability of occurrence becomes nearly equal to zero which satisfies our third criterion. d) To test whether the exponential distribution, a chi-square goodness of fit test (5% level of significance) was carried out for the observed frequency of occurrence and expected frequency of occurrence and was found to be satisfactory Model for Inter-arrival times is thus, Mean inter-arrival time = 42:37:30 (hr: min: sec) Mean arrival rate = = 13:30:48 (vessels per hr)

Modeling the Service times: Fourteen service times were noted and analyzed in a similar fashion as the interarrival times. The criteria for a good-fit distribution remain the same as that for the inter-arrival times. The data and the histogram are as shown in Appendix 3 and Appendix 4. Plotting the data it was found to closely resemble normal distribution. The chi-square goodness of fit test results is as follows Model for Inter-arrival times is thus,

Mean service time = 68:30:43 (hr: min: sec) Mean service rate = = 22:38:50 (hr: min: sec)

Using the Inverse CDF function; various replications were derived in excel, using the formula:
F-1(u) = ln(1u) / ..(for exponential function) NORMINV(RAND(),mean, standard deviation)(for normal distribution)

Also to understand the mean number of trucks in queue, mean time in system, mean time in queue and the server utilization, below modeling is applied:

Mean No. trucks in queue: / (-) Mean time in system: 1 / (-) Mean time in queue: / (-) Utilization rate (): /

Simulation Model & Termination: The simulation model was developed in simple Microsoft Excel. A run length of 20 vessels was employed as the expected average number of vessel arrivals at the APSEZL is approximately 20 /month. If a vessel arrives and finds the unloading bay is not free, it waits at anchorage for its turn to arrive. The vessels are served on a first come first serve basis. 20 Replications were conducted to run this model and below results were found: Average Service time = 64:30:45 (hr: min: sec) Average Inter arrival time = 41:15:53 (hr: min: sec) Average waiting time = 27: 34: 34 Waiting vessels = approx 5 [Refer Appendix 5] Simulation Model tests: Average arrival rates and average service rates were changed to understand the effect of the test. [1] Reduction in over all service rates (i.e. service rates improved by adding 1 more crane) keeping Inter arrival rates constant (i.e. capacity of 14 vessels): Average service rates were reduced accordingly to accommodate 3 working cranes instead of 2 cranes. The results after replications were as follows: Average Service time = 43:15:45 (hr: min: sec) Average Inter arrival time = 42:46:05 (hr: min: sec) Average waiting time = 23: 06: 22 Waiting vessels = approx 1 [Refer Appendix 6] This reduction in service rates due to addition of 1 more crane benefits the operations by reducing the waiting time of 5 vessels to 1 vessel. Leading to fast servicing of 4 vessels and hence an opportunity to serve 18 vessels from current 4 vessels.

[2] Reduction inter-arrival rates (i.e. handling 20 vessels) keeping the service rates constant (i.e. at 14 vessels handling capacity): Average inter arrival rates were reduced to 29:50:15 (hr: min: sec) accordingly to accommodate 20 vessels instead of current handling of 14 vessels. The results after replications were as follows: Average Service time = 75:18:02 (hr: min: sec) Average Inter arrival time = 41:49:36 (hr: min: sec) Average waiting time = 28: 04: 34 Waiting vessels = approx 8 [Refer Appendix 7] The reduction in inter arrival rates; will increase the queue as the service capacity is less to cater more vessels. [3] Reduction inter-arrival rates (i.e. handling 20 vessels) also reduction in the service rates (i.e.: service rates improved by adding 1 more crane) Average inter arrival rates were reduced to 29:50:15 (hr: min: sec) accordingly to accommodate 20 vessels instead of current handling of 14 vessels. Also the addition of 3rd crane reduced the service time. The results after replications were as follows: Average Service time = 43:23:21 (hr: min: sec) Average Inter arrival time = 42:05:20 (hr: min: sec) Average waiting time = 7: 15: 26 Waiting vessels = approx 2 [Refer Appendix 8] The reduction in inter arrival rates and the service time; will increase the vessel handling capacity from 14 to 18 as there is sufficient reduction in waiting time due to fast operations support. Recommendations The increase in expenditure for a 3rd crane will definitely benefit in handling 4 more vessels. The decision is up to the management to implement the 3 rd crane. The other suggestion would be to create another unloading bay which will result in a single queue multi dock analysis. The further analysis on this can be opted for as it will achieve economies of scale for the operations and hence generate higher values.

Appendix 1: Inter-arrival time data

Sr.No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Vessel Name MV Cape Keystone MV Aquafaith MV Tuo Fu 1 MV C. Winner MV Yue Shan MV Orient Angel MV Navios Marco Polo MV Glyfada I MV Cape Olive MV Cape Lilac MV Aanya MV Ocean Clarion MV Atlantic Princess MV Alameda Inter Arrival (hr:min) 00:00 184:45 07:15 18:15 38:45 50:00 11:00 38:10 25:15 49:20 49:30 24:35 13:25 86:30

Appendix 2:

Interarrival time
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00

0.40
0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20

0.15
rel freq 0.10 0.05 0.00 20:00:00 80:00:00 140:00:00 200:00:00 260:00:00 320:00:00 380:00:00 440:00:00

rel freq
expo func

Appendix 3: Service time data

Sr.No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Vessel Name MV Cape Keystone MV Aquafaith MV Tuo Fu 1 MV C. Winner MV Yue Shan MV Orient Angel MV Navios Marco Polo MV Glyfada I MV Cape Olive MV Cape Lilac MV Aanya MV Ocean Clarion MV Atlantic Princess MV Alameda Service time (hr:min) 62:00 46:40 39:35 57:15 83:45 109:00 28:45 34:20 92:55 65:30 112:15 76:15 63:40 87:15

Appendix 4:

Service time
0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 rel freq

0.35

0.3
0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 140:00:00 200:00:00 260:00:00 320:00:00 380:00:00 440:00:00 20:00:00 80:00:00 Rel F(x) rel freq

20:00:00 40:00:00 60:00:00 80:00:00 100:00:00 120:00:00 140:00:00 160:00:00 180:00:00 200:00:00 220:00:00

Appendix 5: [Average Service time & Avg Inter arrival time wit h20 replications]

Appendix 6: [Average Service time reduced & Same Avg Inter arrival time with 20 replications]

Appendix 7: [Average inter arrival time reduced to meet 20 vessel capacity& service rates are constant]

Appendix 8: [Average inter arrival time reduced to meet 20 vessel capacity& service rates also reduced]

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