ECONOMIC REPORT of the

HUDSON VALLEY Fourth Quarter 2012

MARIST COLLEGE
Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Marist Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by Leslie Bates

April 2013

This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau

The support of student research assistant Sarah Greenberg and Kristen Sandberg is acknowledged and appreciated.

While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.

Hudson Valley Summary

Region-wide, employment and labor-force participation peaked in July of 2008 seven months after the start of the Great Recessionat 1,128,500 and 1,189,500, respectively. Employment reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while the labor force bottomed out a year later (February of 2011) at 1,112,000. From peak to trough, labor-force participation fell 6.52 percent (77,500) and employment contracted 9.22 percent (104,100). As of January 2013, the region has recaptured 13.29 percent (10,300) of the labor force lost to
the recession and 4.03 percent (4,200) of the employment. The Capital Region reported similar results, recapturing 18.40 percent of the labor force lost and 4.69 percent of the employment, while the Long Island Region fared much better with a labor force and employment recaptured rate of 51.37 percent and labor 32.24 percent, respectively. Within the region, the Lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 13.71 percent (7,100) of its labor force and 3.55 percent (2,300) of all jobs lost while the Upper Hudson Valley has recaptured 12.06 percent (3,100) and 4.83 percent (1,900), respectively. Year over year, labor-force participation in the Hudson Valley Region advanced 0.22 percent (2,500), rising from 1,118,333 participants in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1,120,833 in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a 0.40 percent (38,167) increase in New York State and a 0.94 percent (1.45 million) increase nationwide. Within the region, the labor force advanced 0.30 percent (2,000) in the Lower Hudson ValleyPutnam, Rockland and Westchesterand 0.11 percent (500) in the Upper Hudson ValleyDutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties. Region-wide, employment fell 0.19 percent (1,967), falling from 1,041,567 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1,039,600 in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a 0.54 percent (46,967) increase in New York State and a 1.88 percent (2.64 million) increase nationwide. Within the region, employment fell -0.12 percent (-733) in the Lower Hudson ValleyPutnam, Rockland and Westchesterand -0.30 percent (-1,233) in the Upper Hudson Valley Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties. Because the regional labor force increased while employment fell, the regional unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.38 percentage points, from 6.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 7.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the Lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.38 percentage points from 6.45 percent to 6.83 percent while in the Upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.39 percentage points from 7.51 percent to 7.90 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.21 percent to 8.09 percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.67 percent to 7.82 percent. The private-sector job count in the Hudson Valley peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 756,433 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 90.00 percent (53,333) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been recaptured compared to 109 percent in the Long Island Region, 89 percent in the Capital Region and 128 percent statewide. Region-wide, several sectorsother services, leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation and utilities and professional and business serviceshave created more jobs since the trough than were lost as a result of the recession. In contrast, the job count in both the manufacturing sector and the information sector continues to decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 7,133 relative to the peak and 1,733 relative to the trough; the job count in the information sector was down 2,333 relative to the peak and 1,167 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a share of total private-sector

employment has fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of 2008peak private-sector employment to 6.34 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Year over year, the regional job count was little changed, falling from 911,500 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 910,933 in the fourth quarter of 2012.Year over year, the private-sector job count increased 0.40 percent from 747,567 to 750,567 while the job count in the public sector fell 2.18 percent from 163,933 to 160,367. As of the fourth quarter 2012, one out of every 5.68 jobs in the Hudson Valley was in the public sector compared to one out of every 5.56 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The private-sector job count advanced in education and health (4,267), professional and business services (1,467), leisure and hospitality (1,267), trade, transportation and utilities (100) and other services (833). The information sector lost an additional 300 jobs, adding to the steady decline which began in 2001. Employment continued to contract in natural resources, mining and construction (2,667), manufacturing (967) and financial activities (1,000). Public-sector (government) employment fell (3,567). Within the Hudson Valley the total job count fell in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County) and Sullivan County. The job count advanced in the Poughkeepsie-NewburghMiddletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties). Region-wide, the average weekly private-sector wage posted a year-over-year decline of .22 percent, falling from $973 in the third quarter of 2011 to $971 in the third quarter of 2012 (most current data). Relative to nearby regions, the private-sector wage paid in the Hudson Valley ranked third ($971) behind the New York City Region ($1,358) and the Long Island Region ($982). The Capital Region ranked fourth at $833. By county, Westchester ranked second statewide, Rockland ranked fourth, Dutchess ranked 11th, Putnam ranked 16th and Orange ranked 28th. Ulster and Sullivan ranked near the bottom at 45th and 58th, respectively. The statewide average private-sector wagewhich is heavily impacted by the New York City Regionwas $1,095. As of the third quarter of 2012, public-sector wages exceeded privatesector wages in all seven counties, with the dollar wage premium ranging from a high of $351 in Ulster County to a low of $40 in Rockland County. Region-wide, the dollar wage premium was $120, below the dollar wage premium in both the Capital ($171) and Long Island regions ($160) but above the wage premium in the New York City Region (-$205). Statewide, the wage premium was -$45. Food-stamp dependence continues to advance with the number of recipients increasing 5.91 percent from 220,007 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 233,017 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for food stamps increased $6.42 million from $31.54 million per month to $38.00 million per month. Sullivan County remains the most dependent on food-stamp benefits at one out of every 5.80 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange and Ulster counties at one out of every 7.00 per persons, one out of every 8.30 per persons and one out of every 8.60 persons, respectively. In New York State, one out of every 6.20 persons received food stamps while in the Hudson Valley, one out of every 9.90 persons. In contrast, the number of residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefitswhich includes Family Assistance (FA)1 and Safety Net Assistance (SNA)2decreased 2.41 percent falling from 34,064 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 33,244 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Monthly expenditures for TA also declined, falling 4.26 percent from $14.00 million per month to $13.38 million per month. The housing market is beginning to improve. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, the median selling price of an existing single-family home rose above the post-recession trough in every county in the region with the exception of Orange County. Ulster County reported the highest relative increase at
1

As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include (care for) a minor child. 2 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.

14.62 percent above the trough followed by Sullivan County and Putnam County at 13.64 percent and 9.55 percent, respectively. Rockland County reported the lowest increase at 3.65 percent while in Orange County the median selling price as of the fourth quarter 2012 was unchanged relative to the trough. In all cases, the median selling price remains well below the peak evaluations witnessed during the housing boom. However, it is important to note that sales activity has begun to accelerate, with all counties in the region experiencing a year-over-year increase. A secondary sign pointing to improvement in the housing market is the demand for singleand multifamily construction permits. Year over year, the demand for single-family permits increased 5.44 percent, from 809 construction permits with an average cost of $371,393 per permit in 2011 to 853 construction permits with an average cost of $269,899 per permit in 2012. Over the same period, the demand for multifamily permits increased 22.64 percent from 106 multifamily permits in 2011 to 130 permits in 2012. The number of units also increased, rising from 1,016 units in 2011 to 1,190 units in 2012. The total budgeted construction cost in 2012 rose 55.72 percent ($49.27 million) from $88.41 million in 2011 to $137.67 million in 2012. Similarly the average cost per unit increased 32.95 percent ($28,675) from $87,017 per unit in 2011 to $115,692 in 2012.

Hudson Valley Labor Force

Year over year, labor-force participation in the Hudson Valley Region advanced less than three tenths of one percent (2,500) from 1,118,333 participants in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1,120,833 in the fourth quarter of 2012. In the upper Hudson ValleyDutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster countieslaborEmployment and Labor-Force Participation force participation Data: NYS Department of Labor advanced (500) from 1,200,000 1,140,000 439,333 to 439,833 while in 1,180,000 1,120,000 the lower Hudson Valley 1,160,000 1,100,000 Putnam, Rockland and 1,140,000 1,080,000 Westchesterlabor-force 1,120,000 1,060,000 participation advanced 1,100,000 1,040,000 (2,000) from 679,000 to 1,080,000 1,020,000 681,000. Over the same 121,060,000 1,000,000 month period, labor-force participation in New York State increased (38,167) LaborForce Employment from 9,534,733 to 9,572,900 while participation in the national (civilian) labor force posted a moderate year-over-year increase of 0.94 percent (1.45 million), rising from 154.02 million to 155.47 million. Year over year, Employment and Labor-Force Participation regional employment was Data: NYS Department of Labor 20,000 little changed (-1,967), 10,000 falling from 1,041,567 jobs 0 in the fourth quarter of 2011 -10,000 to 1,039,600. Employment -20,000 fell in the lower Hudson YearOverYear Changein Valley (-733) from 635,233 -30,000 Employment to 634,500 while -40,000 YearOverYear Changeinthe employment in the upper -50,000 LaborForce Hudson Valley fell (-1,233) -60,000 from 406,333 to 405,1001. Over the same 12-month period, employment in
Employment
2013-01 2012-10 2012-07 2012-04 2012-01 2011-10 2011-07 2011-04 2011-01 2010-10 2010-07 2010-04 2010-01 2009-10 2009-07 2009-04 2009-01 2008-10 2008-07 200810 200901 200904 200907 200910 201001 201004 201007 201010 201101 201104 201107 201110 201201 201204 200807 201207 201210 201301

Numbers do not add to total labor force and total employment due to rounding.

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New York State advanced (46,967) from 8,751,933 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 8,798,900 in the fourth quarter of 2012. Nationwide employment advanced 1.88 percent (2.64 million) from 140.66 million to 143.3 million. Because the regional labor force increased while employment fell, the regional unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.38 percentage points, from 6.86 percent
Hudson Valley Periods
Feb 12-Mar 12 Mar 12-April 12 April 12-May 12 May 12-June 12 June 12-July 12 July 12-Aug 12 Aug 12-Sept 12 Sept 12-Oct 12 Oct 12-Nov 12 Nov 12-Dec 12 Dec 12-Jan 13 Year-over-Year Change YTD % Change
Change in Labor Force Change in Employment

Lower Hudson Valley

Change in Labor Force Change in Employment

Upoper Hudson Valley

Change in Labor Force Change in Employment

500 (700) 8,800 22,400 8,500 (13,000) (20,800) 6,600 (8,400) (200) 4,400 7,700 0.69%

5,300 3,500 4,900 17,100 5,600 (8,300) (16,300) 8,100 (5,100) (3,900) (6,700) 3,100 0.30%

800 300 6,100 13,600 6,900 (8,900) (14,400) 3,700 (6,000) (300) 3,300 4,100 0.60%

3,700 2,800 3,500 10,500 4,700 (6,500) (11,500) 4,500 (4,100) (2,300) (3,000) 1,200 0.19%

(300) (1,000) 2,700 8,800 1,600 (4,100) (6,400) 2,900 (2,400) 100 1,100 3,600 0.82%

1,600 700 1,400 6,600 900 (1,800) (4,800) 3,600 (1,000) (1,600) (3,700) 1,900 0.48%

in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 7.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the Lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.38 percentage points from 6.45 percent to 6.83 percent while in the Upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.39 percentage points from 7.51 percent to 7.90 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.21 percent to 8.09 percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.67 percent to 7.82 percent. During the 12-month period ending in January of 2013, the regional labor force advanced .69 percent (7,700) compared to .86 percent (4,700) in the Capital Region, 1.68 percent (24,600) in the Long Island Region and 1.04 percent (41,600) in the New York City Region. Over the same period, regional employment increased .30 percent (3,100) while employment in the Capital, Long Island and New York City regions increased .52 percent (2,600), 1.56 percent (21,100) and .91 percent (32,600), respectively. The statewide labor force increased .34 percent (32,300) while employment increased .14 percent (11,800). Region-wide, employment and labor-force participation peaked in July of 2008seven months after the start of the Great Recessionat 1,128,500 and 1,189,500, respectively. Employment reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while the labor force

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bottomed out a year later (February of 2011) at 1,112,000.2 From peak to trough, employment contracted 9.22 percent (104,100) and labor-force participation fell 6.52 percent (77,500). As of January 2013, the region has recaptured 13.29 percent (10,300) of the labor force lost to the recession and 4.03 percent (4,200) of the employment. Within the region, the Lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 13.71 percent (7,100) of its labor force and 3.55 percent (2,300) of all jobs lost while the Upper Hudson Valley has recaptured 12.06 percent (3,100) and 4.83 percent (1,900), respectively.
Recapture Rate Region
Hudson Valley Lower Hudson Valley Upper Hudson Valley New York City Region Long Island Region Capital Region
(a) The labor force in New York City continued to grow during the Great Recession. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor; author calculations

Labor Force 13.29% 13.71% 12.06% (a) 51.37% 18.40%

Employment 4.03% 3.55% 4.83% 40.75% 32.24% 4.69%

Revised numbers

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Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work3

Year over year, the private sector added 3,000 jobs while public-sector employment continued to contract (-3,567). Over the 12-month period ending in the fourth quarter of 2012, the regional job count was little changed, falling from 911,500 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 910,933 in the fourth quarter of 2012.Year over year, the ChangeinEmployment2011.42012.4 private-sector job count Data:NewYorkStateDepartmentofLaborCESSeries increased 0.40 percent NaturalResources,MiningandConstruction 2,667 from 747,567 to 750,567 Manufacturing 967 while the job count in the Trade,Transportation,andUtilities 100 public sector fell 2.18 Information 300 percent from 163,933 to FinancialActivities 1,000 160,367. As of the fourth ProfessionalandBusinessServices 1,467 quarter 2012, one out of EducationandHealthServices 4,267 LeisureandHospitality 1,267 every 5.68 jobs in the OtherServices 833 Hudson Valley was in the Government 3,567 public sector compared to TotalNonfarm 567 one out of every 5.56 in the TotalPrivate 3,000 fourth quarter of 2011. GoodsProducing 3,633 Year over year, the PrivateServiceProviding 6,633 private-sector job count advanced in education and health (4,267), professional and business services (1,467), leisure and hospitality (1,267), trade, transportation and utilities (100), and other services (833). The information sector lost an additional 300 jobs, adding to the steady decline which began in 2001. Employment continued to contract in natural resources, mining and construction (2,667), manufacturing (967) and financial activities (1,000). Public-sector (government) employment fell (3,567). Within the Hudson Valley the total job count fell in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County) and in Sullivan County. The job count advanced in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties). In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count fell (1,300) from 569,533 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 568,233 in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the period, the job count fell in both the private sector (400) and the public sector (900). Job gains were recorded in the health and educational services sector (1,833), the professional and business services sector (833), other services (667), and the trade, transportation and utilities sector (200). Over the same period, the private-sector job count declined in the natural resources, mining and
3 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military. Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.

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construction sector (1,800), the leisure and hospitality sector (933), the financial activities sector (633), the manufacturing sector (400) and the information sector (167). The job count declined (800) in the local government sector; however local education added (267). In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA, (Dutchess and Orange counties), the overall job count advanced (1,166) from 255,300 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 256,466 in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced (3,133) to 207,600 in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 204,467 in the fourth quarter of 2011; public-sector employment declined (1,967). Job gains were recorded in the education and health services sector (2,567), the leisure and hospitality sector (1,667), the professional and business services sector (600) and other services (233). The job count declined in the natural resources, mining and construction sector (700), the manufacturing sector (400), the financial activities sector (367), the trade, transportation and utilities sector (333) and the information sector (133). Employment in the local government sector fell (933); local government education fell (767). In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), the overall job count fell (400) to 61,000 in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 61,400 in the fourth quarter of 2011. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced (267); the public-sector job count retreated (667). Job gains were recorded in the leisure and hospitality sector (500), the trade, transportation and utilities sector (133), the education and
Hudson Valley: Change in the Private-Sector Job Count Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession Jobs Lost Recovery Jobs Gained Share Recovered Share of all Jobs Lost Share of all Jobs Recovered

Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services * Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

-16,500 -7,133 -12,833 -2,333 -5,067 -10,767 6,500 -9,033 -2,033 -59,200

4,000 -1,733 14,600 -1,167 133 11,167 11,000 11,700 3,633 53,333

24.24% -24.30% 113.77% -50.00% 2.63% 103.72% NM** 129.52% 178.69% 90.09%

27.87% 12.05% 21.68% 3.94% 8.56% 18.19% NM** 15.26% 3.43% 100.00%

7.50% -3.25% 27.38% -2.19% 0.25% 20.94% NM** 21.94% 6.81% 100.00%

health services sector (67) and the natural resources, mining and construction sector (33). The job count fell in the manufacturing sector (333), and fell (67) in both the professional and business services sector and the other services sector. The job count remained unchanged in both the financial activities sector and the information sector. Employment in the federal government sector was unchanged but fell in the state government sector (67) and in the local government sector (600). Local education declined (433). In Sullivan County the overall job count declined (33). Of this total, the public-sector job count fell (33) while there was no change in the number of private-sector jobs.

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The private-sector job count in the Hudson Valley peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 756,433 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 90 percent (53,333) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been recaptured compared to 109 percent in the Long Island Region, 89 percent in the Capital Region and 128 percent statewide. Region-wide, several Share Recovered: Private Sector sectorsother services, leisure and hospitality, Capital Region: 89.00% trade, transportation and utilities and professional Long Island Region: 109.00% and business serviceshave created more jobs New York State: 128.00% since the trough than were lost as a result of the recession. In contrast, the job count in both the manufacturing sector and the information sector continues to decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 7,133 relative to the peak, and 1,733 relative to the trough; the job count in the information sector was down 2,333 relative to the peak and 1,167 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a share of total private-sector employment has fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of 2008peak private-sector employmentto 6.34 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Rockland-Westchester-Putnam: Change in the Private-Sector Job Count Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations Recession Jobs Lost Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services * Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

Recovery Jobs Gained 3,067 -1,900 8,400 -833 667 8,633 5,433 6,167 2,467 32,100

Share Recovered 25.84% -57.58% 99.21% -49.02% 16.53% 96.64% NM** 139.10% 211.43% 79.72%

Share of all Jobs Lost 29.47% 8.20% 21.03% 4.22% 10.02% 22.19% NM** 11.01% 2.90% 100.00%

Share of all Jobs Recovered 9.55% -5.92% 26.17% -2.60% 2.08% 26.90% NM** 19.21% 7.68% 100.00%

-11,867 -3,300 -8,467 -1,700 -4,033 -8,933 3,633 -4,433 -1,167 -40,267

In the Lower Hudson Valley region (Rockland, Westchester and Putnam counties) the private-sector job count peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 485,767 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 445,500. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 80 percent (32,100) of all jobs lost due to the recession (40,267) had been recaptured. The largest

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recapture rate occurred in the other services sector, follow by the leisure and hospitality
Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan: Change in the Private-Sector Job Count Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations Recession Job Loss Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services * Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

Recovery Job Gain 933 167 6,200 (333) (533) 2,533 5,066 5,533 1,167 21,234

Share Recovered 19.05% 4.55% 154.99% -52.58% -45.71% 185.37% NM** 76.85% 112.90% 105.12%

Share of all Jobs Lost 24.26% 18.15% 19.80% 3.14% 5.78% 6.77% NM** 35.64% 5.12% 100.00%

Share of all Jobs Recovered 4.40% 0.78% 29.20% -1.57% -2.51% 11.93% NM** 26.06% 5.49% 100.00%

-4,900 -3,667 -4,000 -633 -1,167 -1,367 3,767 -7,200 -1,033 -20,200

sector and the trade, transportation and utilities sector. In other services, and leisure and hospitality, more jobs have been created since the trough than were lost to the recession. In contrast, both the job count in the manufacturing sector and information sector continues to decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 5,200 relative to the peak and 1,900 relative to the trough while in the information sector the job count was down 2,533 relative to peak and 833 relative to the trough. In the Upper Hudson Valley (Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan counties) the private-sector job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 271,933 and reached a postrecession trough in the first quarter of 2010 at 251,733. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 105 percent of all jobs lost (20,200) to the recession had been Share Recovered: Private Sector recovered (21,234). The professional and business Dutchess/Orange counties 137.00% services sector as well as the trade, transportation Ulster County 54.00% and utilities sector and other services sector have Sullivan County 34.00% created more jobs since the trough than were lost to the recession. In contrast, the job count in the information sector and financial activities sector has fallen: 966 below the peak and 333 below the trough, and 1,700 below the peak and 533 below the trough, respectively.

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Third-Quarter 2012 Average Weekly Wages

Year over year, the Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the private sectorvalued in current dollarsfell in Sullivan (-4.96 percent), AWW: Data Source Special Request of the Dutchess (-3.39 percent), Orange (-3.18 New York State Department of Labor percent), Putnam (-3.04 percent) and Service Goods Private Government Producing Producing Ulster (-2.43 percent) and increased in Dutchess County Rockland (1.75 percent) and Westchester $846 $937 $693 $1,443 2008 (.99 percent). Region-wide, the AWW $873 $954 $720 $1,559 2009 $873 $971 $736 $1,524 2010 posted a year-over-year decline of .22 $908 $1,013 $763 $1,598 2011 percent, falling from $973 in the third $878 $1,016 $748 $1,534 2012 quarter of 2011 to $971 in the third quarter Orange County $666 $908 $644 $834 2008 of 2012. Relative to nearby regions, the $677 $957 $658 $838 2009 private-sector wage paid in the Hudson $693 $993 $674 $864 2010 Valley ranked third ($971) behind the $724 $1,020 $705 $897 2011 $701 $996 $682 $874 2012 New York City Region ($1,358) and the Putnam County Long Island Region ($982). The Capital $777 $996 $727 $998 2008 Region ranked fourth at $833. By county, $821 $947 $752 $1,146 2009 $817 $1,016 $772 $1,042 2010 Westchester ranked second statewide, $839 $1,151 $805 $1,013 2011 Rockland ranked fourth, Dutchess ranked $813 $1,129 $780 $992 2012 th th 11 , Putnam ranked 16 and Orange Rockland County $893 $965 $806 $1,280 2008 ranked 28th. Ulster and Sullivan ranked th th $876 $949 $793 $1,276 2009 near the bottom at 45 and 58 , $912 $996 $826 $1,363 2010 respectively. The statewide average $963 $1,033 $892 $1,357 2011 $979 $1,019 $884 $1,531 2012 private-sector wagewhich is heavily Sullivan County impacted by the New York City Region $560 $782 $544 $669 2008 was $1,0954. $590 $808 $580 $668 2009 $573 $839 $562 $678 2010 The AWW in the goods$623 $876 $616 $700 2011 producing industries (manufacturing, $592 $885 $581 $704 2012 construction and mining) advanced in Ulster County $605 $859 $571 $822 2008 Rockland, Westchester and Sullivan and $604 $861 $576 $808 2009 fell in Dutchess, Orange, Putnam and $612 $915 $579 $830 2010 Ulster. The largest percentage increase $649 $956 $620 $860 2011 $633 $984 $606 $852 2012 occurred in Rockland at 12.78 percent Westchester County followed by Westchester and Sullivan at $1,092 $1,142 $1,052 $1,368 2008 4.15 percent and .67 percent, respectively. $1,058 $1,094 $1,021 $1,357 2009 $1,091 $1,197 $1,059 $1,364 2010 The AWW fell 3.99 percent in Dutchess, $1,139 $1,212 $1,106 $1,427 2011 2.50 percent in Orange, 2.09 percent in $1,151 $1,218 $1,115 $1,486 2012 Putnam and .95 percent in Ulster. As is typically the case, the highest goods-producing wages were paid in Dutchess County at $1,534 followed by Rockland County at $1,531. The lowest goods-producing wages were paid in Sullivan County at $704.
4

As of the third quarter of 2012, the New York City Region represented 55 percent of all private-sector wages paid statewide.

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The AWW in the private service-providing industries fell in every county except Westchester which posted a year-over-year increase of .79 percent. The largest percentage decline occurred in Sullivan at -5.66 percent followed by Orange at -3.31 percent and Putnam at -3.14 percent. The smallest year-overyear declined occurred in Rockland at -.89 percent.
40.00% 35.00%

PrivatetoPublicWages2012.3 DataSource:NewYorkStateDepartmentofLaborQCEWseries
35.64% 33.06% 29.62% 27.96%

$400 $350

PercentagePremium

25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%

DollarPremium PercentPremium Dutchess County $138 13.62% Orange County $295 29.62% Putnam County $316 27.96%

$250 $200 13.62% $150 $100 3.90%

Rockland County $40 3.90% Sullivan County $292 33.06% Ulster County $351 35.64%

5.54% $50
Westchester County $67 5.54%

$0

After posting numerous year-over-year increases, the AWW paid in the public sector declined in Orange (-2.31 percent), Putnam (-1.91 percent) and Rockland (-1.36 percent) counties. Ulster posted the highest year-over-year increase at 2.96 percent followed by Sullivan (1.03 percent). Both Westchester and Dutchess reported increases of less than one half of one percent at .47 percent and .25 percent, respectively. As of the third quarter of 2012, public-sector wages exceeded private-sector wages in all seven counties, with the dollar wage premium ranging from a high of $351 in Ulster County to a low of $40 in Rockland County. Region-wide, the dollar wage premium was $120, below the dollar wage premium in both the Capital ($171) and Long Island regions ($160) but above the wage premium in the New York City (-$205) Region. Statewide, the wage CAGR: 2008.3-2012.3, Author Calculations premium was -$45. Private Govern. Service Goods Since the onset of the Dutchess County 0.93% 2.05% 1.94% 1.54% Great Recession, wage gains Orange County 1.27% 2.33% 1.44% 1.19% have been muted, with low Putnam County 1.13% 3.17% 1.76% -0.14% single digits the norm. RegionRockland County 2.34% 1.37% 2.34% 4.58% wide, private-sector wages have Sullivan County 1.41% 3.15% 1.63% 1.29% grown at an annualized rate of Ulster County 1.17% 3.47% 1.49% 0.91% 1.36 percent. With inflation Westchester County 1.32% 1.61% 1.46% 2.09% averaging 2 percent per year, the real AWW has fallen. In contrast, public-sector wages have grown faster (3.54 percent) than inflation, resulting in a slight increase in the real average weekly wage. As witnessed in the accompanying chart, wage growth is as varied as the counties in which the wages are paid. One important similarity: the average worker continues to be impacted by the Great Recession.

Page 9 of 14

Dollarpremium

30.00%

$300

Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance)

Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly food-stamp benefits advanced 2.19 percent (4,991), from 228,026 in the third quarter of 2012 to 233,017 in the fourth quarter of 2012. Every Change in the Average Number of Monthly county in the region, with Food-Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data the exception of Orange 250,000 12000 County, experienced an 10000 increase in the number of 200,000 food-stamp recipients with 8000 Westchester County 150,000 6000 experiencing the largestlevel increase at 3,565 4000 100,000 followed by Rockland 2000 (816), Sullivan (442), 50,000 0 Ulster (221), Putnam (110) and Dutchess (35). The 0 2000 number of food-stamp recipients in Orange County fell (199). The NumberofMonthlyRecipients QtoverQtChange largest percentage change occurred in Westchester County at 4.55 percent, followed by Putnam at 4.51 percent. In New York State, the number of food-stamp recipients posted a 1.54 percent (47,708) quarter-over-quarter increase. Food-stamp expenditures increased 18.63 percent from $32.00 million per month in the third quarter 2012 to $38.00 million per month in the fourth quarter. The average monthly benefit increased from $140.32 per recipient in the third quarter to 162.90 per recipient in the fourth quarter. By county, Sullivan was the most dependent on food-stamp benefits at one out of every 5.80 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange and Ulster counties at one Food-Stamp Recipients: Data Source OTDA NY Change 2012.4 over 2012.3 Change 2012.4 over 2011.4 out of every 7.00 per persons, one Dutchess 35 0.14% 1,552 6.83% out of every 8.30 per persons and Orange -199 -0.44% -158 -0.35% one out of every 8.60 persons, respectively. Putnam County was 110 4.51% 387 17.92% Putnam the least dependent at one out of 816 1.86% 3,084 7.40% Rockland every 39.20 persons, followed by Sullivan 442 3.47% 1,539 13.21% Dutchess County at one out of every Ulster 221 1.06% 944 4.66% 12.30 persons and Westchester Westchester 3,565 4.55% 5,662 7.42% County at one out of every 11.70 Hudson Valley 4,991 2.19% 13,010 5.91% persons. In New York State, one out New York City 27,656 1.50% 41,238 2.26% of every 6.20 persons received food47,708 1.54% 90,925 2.97% New York State stamp benefits in the fourth quarter of 2012. Year over year, food-stamp recipients increased 5.91 percent from 220,007 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 233,017 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for food stamps increased $6.42 million from $31.54 million per month to $38.00 million per month.
NumberofMonthlyRecipients QuarteroverQuarterChange 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Across the Hudson Valley the number of residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefitswhich includes Family Assistance (FA)5 and Safety Net Assistance As of the fourth quarter of 2012: (SNA)6increased 366 from 32,878 in the third quarter of 2012 one out of 9.9 persons in the to 33,244 in the fourth quarter of 2012. The number of TA Hudson Valley received foodrecipients increased in four of the seven counties. Recipients increased in Ulster (450), Westchester (138), Rockland (26) stamp benefits, one out of every and Sullivan (18); fell in Dutchess (-183) and Orange (-84); and 69.28 received temporary were unchanged in Putnam. The largest percentage change assistance benefits and one out of occurred in Ulster County with a gain of 12.92 percent, every 9.56 received home-energy followed by Dutchess at -5.91 percent. Over the same threeassistance. month period total TA expenditures were little changed, rising 0.21 percent from $13.36 million per month to $13.38 million per month. The average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $450.49 and $362.61, respectively, down from $457.10 and up from $364.24 in the third quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is the most dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 34.53 persons, followed by Ulster and Orange counties at one out of every 46.37 persons and one out of every 53.24 persons, respectively. Putnam County is the least dependent at one out of every 684.47 persons, followed by Dutchess, Rockland and Westchester counties at one out of every 102.50 persons, one out of every 91.59 persons and one out of every 70.56 persons, respectively. Year over year, TA recipients decreased 2.41 percent from 34,064 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 33,244 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period, Temporary Assistance Recipients: the monthly expenditure for TA Data Source OTDA NY Change 2012.4 over 2012.3 Change 2012.4 over 2011.4 decreased 4.26 percent from $14.00 million per month to $13.38 million Dutchess -183 -5.91% -39 -1.32% per month. Orange -84 -1.17% -193 -2.67% Quarter over quarter, the Putnam 0 -0.23% -1 -0.68% number of Hudson Valley residents Rockland 26 0.77% -18 -0.52% who received home-energy Sullivan 18 0.80% 63 2.93% assistance7 decreased 25.16 percent Ulster 450 12.92% 241 6.53% from 107,302 persons per month in Westchester 138 1.03% -874 -6.06% the third quarter of 2012 to 80,302 Hudson Valley 366 1.11% -820 -2.41% persons in the fourth quarter. The New York City 4,972 1.44% 6,170 1.79% average benefit paid in the fourth New York State 9,304 1.64% 8,075 1.42% quarter was $183.84 per recipient per month, down from $221.94 per recipient per month in the third quarter. Within the region, the number of home-energy recipients decreased in each county, including Orange (22,858), Ulster (21,680), Dutchess (11,883), Sullivan (11,358), Rockland (8,092), Westchester (3,354) and Putnam (1,774). The largest percentage decrease occurred in Sullivan County at 43.99 percent. Over the same three-month period, home-energy expenditures decreased 38.01 percent from $23.81 million per month in the third quarter to $14.76 million per month in the fourth quarter of 2012.

5 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include (care for) a minor child. 6 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years. 7 The Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) is a federally funded program that assists low-income households in paying for the cost of home heating and the repair and replacement of home heating equipment.

Page 11 of 14

Home Sales and Single- and MultiFamily Building Permits

As of the fourth quarter of 2012, the median selling price of an existing single-family home rose above the post-recession trough in every county in the region with the exception of Orange County. Ulster County reported the highest relative increase at 14.62 percent above the trough followed by Sullivan County and Putnam County at 13.64 percent and 9.55 percent, respectively. Rockland reported the lowest increase at 3.65 percent while in Orange County the median selling price as of the fourth quarter 2012 was unchanged relative to the trough. In all cases the median selling price remains well below the peak evaluations witnessed during the housing boom. However, it is important to note that sales activity has begun to accelerate with all counties in the region experiencing a year-over-year increase.
Median Housing Values Peak/Trough/2012.4
Year Quarter Peak Price Peak Median Price Year Quarter Trough Price Trough Median Price Dollar Change Peak and Trough Percent Change Peak and Trough Median Price 2012.4 Dollar Change 2012.4 and Peak Percent Change 2012.4 and Peak Dollar Change 2012.4 and Trough Percent Change 2012.4 and Trough

County Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester

2006.3 2007.3 2006.2 2007.3 2007.2 2007.3 2007.3

$352,000 $330,000 $437,140 $517,000 $202,500 $265,000 $729,000

2011.4 2012.4 2012.1 2011.4 2012.1 2012.1 2012.1

$230,000 $234,000 $277,500 $370,000 $110,000 $172,750 $505,500

-$122,000 -$96,000 -$159,640 -$147,000 -$92,500 -$92,250 -$223,500

-34.66% -29.09% -36.52% -28.43% -45.68% -34.81% -30.66%

$250,000 $234,000 $304,000 $383,500 $125,000 $198,000 $545,000

-$102,000 -$96,000 -$133,140 -$133,500 -$77,500 -$67,000 -$184,000

-28.98% -29.09% -30.46% -25.82% -38.27% -25.28% -25.24%

$20,000 $0 $26,500 $13,500 $15,000 $25,250 $39,500

8.70% 0.00% 9.55% 3.65% 13.64% 14.62% 7.81%

For the year of 2012, the demand for single-family construction permits rose 5.44 percent, from 809 construction permits with an average cost of $371,393 per permit in 2011 to 853 construction permits with an average cost of $269,899 per permit in 2012. Total construction costs fell $70.23 million from $300.46 million in 2011 to $230.23 million in 2012

Year Over Year, Single-Family Housing Permits:

U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers

JanuaryDecember 2012*
Area Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley Permits Construction Costs

JanuaryDecember 2011
Permits Construction Costs

Year-Over-Year Change
Permits

Year-Over-Year Change
Construction Costs

82 314 42 70 100 63 182 853

$24,729,016 $59,963,301 $12,671,434 $21,088,472 $19,721,940 $10,943,611 $81,105,902 $230,223,676

109 257 53 93 72 43 182 809

$37,587,644 $48,290,404 $16,593,562 $22,228,836 $13,967,447 $12,172,000 $149,617,293 $300,457,186

-24.77% 22.18% -20.75% -24.73% 38.89% 46.51% 0.00% 5.44%

-34.21% 24.17% -23.64% -5.13% 41.20% -10.09% -45.79% -23.38%

For the period, Orange County issued the largest number of single-family permits at 314, followed by Westchester and Sullivan counties at 182 and 100, respectively. Putnam County issued the

Page 12 of 14

least at 42. The number of single-family permits issued declined in Dutchess (27), Rockland (23) and Putnam (11) and where unchanged in Westchester. The demand for multifamily permits posted a year-over-year increase from 106 multifamily permits in 2011 to 130 permits in 2012. The number of multifamily units also increased, rising from 1,016 multifamily units in 2011 to 1,190 multifamily units in 2012. The total budgeted construction cost in 2012 rose 55.72 percent ($49.27 million) from $88.41 million in 2011 to $137.67 million in 2012. Similarly the average cost per unit increased 32.95 percent ($28,675) from $87,017 per unit in 2011 to $115,692 in 2012. Multifamily Construction Permits, JanuaryDecember 2012* Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers County
Dutchess Dutchess Total Orange Kiryas Joel village Montgomery village New Windsor town Newburgh town Wallkill town Orange Total Putnam Carmel town Philipstown town Putnam Total Rockland New Hempstead village New Square village Ramapo town Spring Valley village Rockland Total Sullivan Fallsburg town Sullivan Total Ulster Plattekill town Shawangunk town Ulster Total Westchester Briarcliff Manor village Eastchester town Larchmont village Mount Kisco village New Rochelle Peekskill Port Chester village Somers town White Plains Yonkers Yorktown town Westchester Total Hudson Valley Total

City/Town/Village

Number of Buildings
0 26 17 12 1 3 59 4 1 5 2 1 29 4 36 2 2 1 1 2 4 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 3 1 2 26

Number of Units
0 270 101 185 6 78 640 32 2 34 4 3 150 8 165 4 4 2 2 4 14 10 3 2 238 2 2 8 50 2 12 343

Value of Construction Permit

$0 $30,138,490 $5,542,702 $18,780,054 $400,003 $9,000,000 $63,861,249 $4,630,844 $350,000 $4,980,844 $760,000 $ 450,000 $14,584,201 $1,500,000 $17,294,201 $162,666 $162,666 $ 85,000 $250,000 $335,000 $2,800,000 $1,500,000 $100,000 $300,000 $39,074,629 $349,000 $200,000 $986,301 $4,700,000 $250,000 $780,000 $51,039,930

Average Construction Cost per Unit

$0 $111,624 $54,878 $101,514 $66,667 $115,385 $ 99,783 $144,714 $175,000 $146,495 $190,000 $150,000 $ 97,228 $ 187,500 $ 104,813 $40,667 $40,667 $42,500 $125,000 $ 83,750 $200,000 $150,000 $33,333 $150,000 $164,179 $174,500 $ 100,000 $123,288 $94,000 $125,000 $65,000 $148,804

130

1190

$137,673,890

$115,692

Page 13 of 14

Sales-Tax Collection
An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales-tax collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 1.58 percent, from $312.70 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $317.64 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. The largest year-over-year dollar increase occurred in Orange County at $4.00 million (6.36 percent), followed by Rockland and Sullivan counties at $1.49 million (3.49 percent) and $0.15 million (1.80 percent), respectively. Sales-tax collection declined -1.29 percent ($551,944) in Dutchess County, -0.31 percent ($83,430) in Ulster County and -0.16 percent ($191,387) in Westchester County. Sales Tax Collection: Source New York State Department of Finance
2012.Q4 2011.Q4
$42,750,589 $62,844,059 $13,003,622 $42,666,628 $8,155,200 $26,748,722 $116,530,415 $312,699,236

2010.Q4
$38,461,604 $57,657,798 $12,491,265 $43,370,842 $7,659,613 $24,437,806 $112,253,226 $310,373,142

2009.Q4
$35,823,532 $53,678,119 $11,704,923 $40,009,770 $7,288,228 $22,502,568 $104,366,233 $288,137,380

2008.Q4
$37,116,802 $53,364,174 $11,981,110 $40,678,402 $8,226,786 $23,594,487 $108,470,561 $296,511,759

2007.Q4
$38,967,669 $58,670,749 $12,654,272 $44,625,000 $9,007,987 $25,537,784 $118,255,477 $322,363,655

Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley

$42,198,645 $66,841,719 $13,135,125 $44,157,064 $8,302,189 $26,665,292 $116,339,028 $317,639,061

$6,000,000

7.00% 6.36% 6.00% 5.00%

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

4.00%
$3,000,000

3.49% 3.00% 1.80% 1.01% 2.00% 1.58% 1.00% 0.31% Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster 0.16% Westchester Hudson Valley 0.00% 1.00% 2.00%

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0

1.29% Dutchess

$1,000,000

Yearoveryearchangeindollarscollected

Yearoveryearpercentagechange

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