1

Long term wave statistics

Distributions of
significant wave heights
peak periods
mean wave directions
etc
Extreme value analysis
individual wave height statistics
within a given sea state
Sources of data
Measurements (often proprietary)
Buoys
Remote sensing systems
Wave staffs
Hindcast (Norwegian Metorological Institute)
Computation of winds and waves in the past based
on weather obseservations.
Specific sites
Every 6 hours (typically)
Table 3. Long
term wave
statistics table
Above:
Significant wave
height H
m02
Below:
Average period
T
m02
.
Figure 32.
Scatter plot of
Hmo and Tp .
Joint occurrence table of Hm0 and Tm02.
Joint occurrence table for wave height and wave direction.
2
The graph shows the actual
variation over a winter season for
H
m0
, T
p
and the wave direction at Tp, u
p
.
The solid lines are
measurements and the dotted
line are daily numerical
predictions carried out by a
numerical wave model run by the
Norwegian Meteorological
Institute.
The purpose of long term
statistics is to extract and
compress the information in such
recordings in the best possible
way!
Joint occurrence table of Hm0 and wind speed (WS).
Table 7.
Significant wave
height statistics
table for Weibull
plotting.
0.99945 3623 2 8.99 8.5 - 8.99
18
0.99890 3621 0 8.49 8.0 - 8.49
17
0.99890 3621 3 7.99 7.5 - 7.99
16
0.99807 3618 1 7.49 7.0 - 7.49
15
0.99779 3617 11 6.99 6.5 - 6.99
14
0.99476 3606 26 6.49 6.0 - 6.49
13
0.98759 3580 36 5.99 5.5 - 5.99
12
0.97766 3544 44 5.49 5.0 - 5.49
11
0.96552 3500 57 4.99 4.5 - 4.99
10
0.94979 3443 152 4.49 4.0 - 4.49
9
0.90786 3291 189 3.99 3.5 - 3.99
8
0.85572 3102 298 3.49 3.0 - 3.49
7
0.77352 2804 415 2.99 2.5 - 2.99
6
0.65903 2389 626 2.49 2.0 - 2.49
5
0.48634 1763 746 1.99 1.5 - 1.99
4
0.28055 1017 830 1.49 1.0 - 1.49
3
0.05150 187 158 0.99 0.5 - 0.99
2
0.00800 29 29 0.49 0.0 - 0.49
1
F
e,j
(h) = Pr(H
m0
< h)
En
i
n
i
Upper limit
[m]
Interva[
m]
Class
0
0
( )
1 exp
c
F h
h H
H H

| |
| |
| =
|
|
\ .
\ .
: ln( ln(1 )) Y axis F
0
: ln( ) X axis H H
Weibull fitting of H
m0
0
0
( )
1 exp
c
F h
h H
H H

| |
| |
| =
|
|
\ .
\ .
: ln( ln(1 )) Y axis F
0
: ln( ) X axis H H
Weibull fitting of H
m0
0.99945
0.99890
0.99890
0.99807
0.99779
0.99476
0.98759
0.97766
0.96552
0.94979
0.90786
0.85572
0.77352
0.65903
0.48634
0.28055
0.05150
0.00800
Pr(H
m0
< h)
8.99
8.49
7.99
7.49
6.99
6.49
5.99
5.49
4.99
4.49
3.99
3.49
2.99
2.49
1.99
1.49
0.99
0.49
Upper
limit [m]
3
0.99945
0.99890
0.99890
0.99807
0.99779
0.99476
0.98759
0.97766
0.96552
0.94979
0.90786
0.85572
0.77352
0.65903
0.48634
0.28055
0.05150
0.00800
Pr(H
m0
< h)
8.99
8.49
7.99
7.49
6.99
6.49
5.99
5.49
4.99
4.49
3.99
3.49
2.99
2.49
1.99
1.49
0.99
0.49
Upper
limit [m]
( )
0
0 0
0
Pr ( ) 1 exp ,
m
c
h H
H h F h h H
H H

| |
| |
| s = = >
|
|
\ .
\ .
| | ( )
0 0 0 0
1
E 1
m H m c
H H H H

| |
= = + I +
|
\ .
( ) ( )
0 0
2 2 2 2
0 0
2 1
E 1 1
m m H m H c
H H H o

( | | | |
(
= = I + I +
( | |
(
\ . \ .
( ) ( )
0
3 3 3
3 0 0
3 1 2 1
E 1 3 1 1 2 1
m H c
H H H

( | | | | | | | |
(
= = I + I + I + + I + ( | | | | ( \ . \ . \ . \ .

Weibull distribution .
Estimation of
parameters by fitting the
statistical moments of
1., 2. and 3. order to
observed sets of H
m0
The return period
0,
1 ( )
p
p
m R
R
F H
t
=

0,
0,
Prob(exceeding the design value
only once in years)
1 ( )
p
p
m R
p
m R
p
H
R
F H
R
t
= =
is the average time between
each observation used
to establish the probability distributuion
t
t = 6hrs (H
0
=0.8 m)
R
50
= 50yr
0,50
6
( ) 1
50 365 24
1 0.0000134
0.999986
m
F H =

=
=
0,50
( )
m
F H
H
mo,50yr
H
0
=10.8 m
H
mo,50yr
= 11.6 m
The encounter probability
0,
1 ( )
p
p
m R
R
F H
t
=

( , ; ) is the probability
that the design level associated with a return period
will occur during a period of years
p
p
E Y R
R
Y
t
1 1
( , ; ) 1 1 1 1
/
p
p p
Y
Y
E Y R
R R
t
t
t
| | | |
= ~ | |
| |
\ . \ .
Percent chance of exceeding the return period design level during different time periods Y.
Distribution of maxima
1) What is the largest wave experienced for a given sea sate?
2) How do we use the answer of 1) when the sea state varies?
.
4
( ) ( )
max 1 2
Pr Pr , , ... ,
N
X x x X x X x s = s s s
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 2
Pr Pr ... Pr
N
N X
X X X x X x F x = s s s =
( )
2
0
1 exp 2 ,
H
m
h
F h
H
| |
| |
| =
|
|
\ .
\ .
( )
max
2
max
0
( ) Pr 1 exp 2
N
H
m
h
F h H h
H
( | |
| |
( | = < =
|
| ( \ .
\ .
( ) ( ) max 0
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
| |
~ +
|
\ .
m
E H H N
N
Distribution of maxima
Question 1) What is the largest wave experienced for a given sea sate?
Consider the stochastic variable X and N independent outcomes of X: X
1
,...,X
N
.
Let X
max
be largest of X
1
,...,X
N
,
The statement that X
max
x is equivalent to that X
1
x, X
2
x,...,X
N
x.
By the assumption of independence:
where F
X
is the cumulative distribution function of X.
We recall that the wave heights in a sea state follow the Rayleigh distr.
the highest wave expected in a given sea sate
02
/ ( is the duration of the sea state)
m
N A T A =
Distribution of maxima
Question 2) How do we use the answer of 1) when the sea state varies??
Consider now a sea state "1" and a sea state "2".
Exactly as before
Pr(Hmax < h during both "1" and "2")
= Pr(Hmax < h during "1")Pr(Hmax < h during "2")
A
i
= N
i
T
m02
It is obvious how this generalises as a product involving several different sea states:
1 02 2 02 1 2
1 2
/ /
2 2
0 0
1 exp 2 1 exp 2
m m A T A T
m m
h h
H H
( ( | | | |
| | | |
( ( | |
= | |
| | ( ( | |
\ . \ .
\ . \ .
Distribution of maxima
:
( )
max
2
max
0
( | ) Pr 1 exp ( 2
ij
i
N
H ij
m
h
F h A H h
H
(
| |
(
= < = H |
|
(
\ .

i

j
A = 7 years = 7 365 24 3600 s =220752000 s Distribution of maxima
:
( )
max
2
max
0
( | ) Pr 1 exp ( 2
ij
i
N
H ij
m
h
F h A H h
H
(
| |
(
= < = H |
|
(
\ .

Long term probability
for individual wave heights
based on several years of
measured (H,T ) and H
m0
at
an offshore site in Norwegian
waters.
Exercise 12.1
Find the expected maximum wave at a point in
the sea if Hm0 has been 1 m and Tm02 = 6 s
from the creation of the earth (~ 410
9
years).
( ) ( )
( )
max 0
8
8
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
0, 57
1 ln 6.7 10 / 2 3 m
8ln 6.7 10
| |
~ +
|
\ .
| |
~ + ~
|
\ .
m
E H H N
N
Exercise 12.2
Two sea states, (H
m0
= 4 m, T
m02
= 10 s) and
(H
m0
= 8 m, T
m02
= 12 s), have both lasted for 12
hours. Determine the expected maximum wave
for the heaviest sea state and show that the
probability that a larger wave should have
occurred during the first sea state is vanishingly
small.
( ) ( )
max 0
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
m
E H H N
N
| |
~ +
|
\ .
( )
max
2
max
0
( ) Pr 1 exp 2
( | |
| |
( | = < =
|
|
(
\ .
\ .
H
m
h
F h H h
H