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Liquidity Cycle

Stock market action is dominated and suppressed by the political debate in Washington. Billions of dollars of capital investment is being driven to paralysis by political sleight of hand. The fiscal cliff is an artifact of political chicanery to set up a straw man. Expiration of various tax and stimulus programs as well as the sequestration were scheduled for Jan 1 2013 because that date was safely beyond the election. Both parties participated in this charade though the program was spearheaded by the administration. Aided by the media the spin-masters have directed the focus to reducing (not eliminating) the deficit over 10 years. The argument mostly centers on how hard to hit the rich. Token cuts in spending have been mentioned occasionally. Washingtons great debate on the fiscal cliff does not in any way address the real problem which is excessive debts at government at every level in the US. The bilious gasbags in Congress cannot even reach agreement on slowing the rate of debt accumulation; actually producing a reduction of total debt is not even a consideration. In my personal opinion (not Infiniums), if you hear an elected official talking, you are being lied to.

The following chart is the MSCI World Index with the ICM Global Growth Expectation proxy overlay. These two have been very correlated and both have been consolidating. But recently, the World Index has crawled above the upside boundary of the flag formation and is suggesting a new uptrend is beginning. The Global Growth proxy has not yet broken out but is very close. If Washington can avoid shooting itself in the foot I expect more follow through to the upside. I am including quite a few more charts of individual country indices with this same Global Growth proxy as a visual survey.

I have never seen more senators express discontent with their jobs. ... I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices to doing something terrible and unforgivable to this wonderful country. Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. ... We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected. --By Senator John C. Danforth April 22, 1992 Moving on from that particular rant about governance (for now) lets briefly turn to some charts. Both the SPX and the LCI are churning sideways with some recent strength back to the upside though only near the middle of recent ranges so far. I believe the bias is to the upside driven by central bank liquidity provision in the US, Europe, and likely ramped up stimulus in Japan coming soon. Holding this upside pressure back is a very noticeable concern that a failure to reach a fiscal cliff postponement deal will create a panic sell off like that of failure of the first TARP vote in 2008. No one wants to be caught offside if a quick 25% panic drop should occur. Keep in mind that any Index gains that occur with passage of an agreement will likely be an illusion created by the certainty of continued aggressive currency debasement rather than the emergence of fiscal probity in the corridors of cronyism. Sorry, ranting again.

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THIS COMMUNICATION IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF INFINIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LCC AND ITS EMPLOYEES TO WHICH IT IS ADDRESSED AND CONTAINS OR MAY CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL OR EXEMPT FROM DISCLOSURE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient (or the employee or agent responsible for delivering to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately inform Infinium Capital Management, LLC and then disregard and delete this communication. Do not disseminate or retain any copy of this communication.

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THIS COMMUNICATION IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF INFINIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LCC AND ITS EMPLOYEES TO WHICH IT IS ADDRESSED AND CONTAINS OR MAY CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL OR EXEMPT FROM DISCLOSURE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient (or the employee or agent responsible for delivering to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately inform Infinium Capital Management, LLC and then disregard and delete this communication. Do not disseminate or retain any copy of this communication.

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THIS COMMUNICATION IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF INFINIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LCC AND ITS EMPLOYEES TO WHICH IT IS ADDRESSED AND CONTAINS OR MAY CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL OR EXEMPT FROM DISCLOSURE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient (or the employee or agent responsible for delivering to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately inform Infinium Capital Management, LLC and then disregard and delete this communication. Do not disseminate or retain any copy of this communication.

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Developed country rankings table

Better include a Turkey and a Thailand chart.

Strongest ranks for dollar based investors: New Zealand, Austria, and Germany. Greece is left off because the buy permission column has not gone green. Weakest markets are Canada, the US and Italy. Even recent Euro strength hasnt helped Italy. Strongest Emerging and Newly Developed countries for dollar based investors : Turkey, Philippines, and Thailand. Weakest markets are China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. Emerging Markets Ranking Table As the fiscal cliff deadline arrives, if something positive results, buy some of the country indices that are outperforming the Global Growth Expectation proxy. That is of course no guarantee, but you should have the wind at your back. This next chart is a 25yr look at the price of the 10 year US Treasury Future lead contract. Look at how narrow the range of the last 2 quarters trade has been. There is no break of the uptrend showing but 85 billion of treasuries and mortgages purchased per month by the Fed does not seem to be lifting the market very hard. Imagine if they stopped buying.

THIS COMMUNICATION IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF INFINIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LCC AND ITS EMPLOYEES TO WHICH IT IS ADDRESSED AND CONTAINS OR MAY CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL OR EXEMPT FROM DISCLOSURE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient (or the employee or agent responsible for delivering to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately inform Infinium Capital Management, LLC and then disregard and delete this communication. Do not disseminate or retain any copy of this communication.

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Sectors

Implied vols are generally in the bottom to middle of the last 3 month ranges. Exceptions are of note. The Yen is higher as Japanese elections approach amid calls for stimulus and a weak yen policy. The QQQ etf is higher on the heels of the AAPL price weakness and its large daily swings. Hong Kong volatility is up a bit as H-shares are a beneficiary of the combination of some positive economic signs in China combined with increasing concerns of questionable accounting practices in the domestic A-share market that push money to a safer market.

I am watching financials, Industrials, and energies for upside moves to confirm any rallies. The volatility tables this week are just an overview of the main markets since action has been fairly subdued we are seeing seasonal position reduction occur.

THIS COMMUNICATION IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF INFINIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LCC AND ITS EMPLOYEES TO WHICH IT IS ADDRESSED AND CONTAINS OR MAY CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL OR EXEMPT FROM DISCLOSURE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient (or the employee or agent responsible for delivering to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately inform Infinium Capital Management, LLC and then disregard and delete this communication. Do not disseminate or retain any copy of this communication.

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Articles & Commentary


I have been expecting the Yen to weaken in 2013 and very gently easing into a short position that I can hold for what I expect to be a rewarding trend. In the following article, Steven Englander and the analysts at Citicorp discuss their more temperate outlook for the Japanese currency. JPY weakness, but no crisis We expect JPY to weaken in 2013, but Fed QE limits gains to about 85 JPY weakness supported by current account deterioration, fiscal expansion and monetary ease. A sharp spike in USDJPY requires a JGB/JPY crisis unlikely in 2013 We expect USDJPY to weaken into early 2013 but do not expect it to trade much above 85. JPY weakness is likely to be capped by low US-Japan rate differentials and Japanese exporter hedging activity. Further gains are unlikely when exporters set budget rates for the next fiscal year in early Spring. A spike to 90 or above is not our base case, but could be provoked by a JGB crisis or an increase in US rates. JPY weakness will be driven in 2013 by deteriorating trade, income and direct investment balances. These will be exacerbated by domestic demand gains driven by fiscal ease and pre-consumption tax spending. The new BoJ governor in April is likely to aggressively expand the asset purchase fund. USDJPY has never broken out of a long-term downtrend when the US-Japan policy rate differential is below 2% and especially not when it is 0% (Figure 7). USDJPY typically rebounds by around 10 following a period of decline. Given that USDJPY fell to a record low 75 in October 2011, USDJPY will likely peak at 85 next year.

Figure 7. USDJPY and the US-Japan policy rate differential

Figure 8. USDJPY and Basis swap (1year, 3m LIBOR)

But if were in recession, and the business cycle peak was in July, how could employment be higher three months later? Actually, this was also true in three of the last seven recessions and in the severe 73-75 recession, job growth stayed positive eight months into the recession. Thus, positive jobs growth isnt inconsistent with the early months of recession. Of course, all of this data is subject to revision, but, as weve noted before, the ultimate revisions to coincident indicator data after business cycle peaks tend to be downward. If you look at the size of the simultaneous declines in industrial production and personal income since July, that combination has never occurred outside a recessionary context in over half a century but its occurred in every recession. This leads us to conclude that we are most likely already in a recession that began around mid-2012.

Sources: Fed, BoJ, Bloomberg, Citi FX,

Sources: Bloomberg, Citi FX


Changes in hedging activity by Japanese investors will put limited upward pressure on USDJPY. Market expectations for this are overdone. Institutional investors will hedge most foreign-currency investments as hedging costs will remain small. USDJPY could rise to 90 if two-year US rates reach 0.8%, and 95 if they reach 1.1%, unlikely given the Feds policy stance. Another risk is if an outflow of funds from the banking system force banks to sell JGBs, prompting a JGB/JPY crisis. While a crisis is not expected, the risk is unexpectedly strong USD/JPY, rather than unexpectedly weak. Courtesy of CitiFX The Tell-Tale Chart Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRIs leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didnt start in the first quarter of 2012, it was very likely to begin by mid-year. But we also made it clear at the time that you wouldnt know whether or not we were wrong until the end of 2012. And so its interesting to note the rush to judgment by a number of analysts, already asserting that we were wrong. So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales saw their high points in July (vertical red line in chart), with only employment still rising.

Now, please remember that, following our recession call, central banks really ramped up their efforts, and have literally been pumping more money into the economy than at any time in the history of humanity and this is the upshot. No wonder the Fed is now all in. So how come hardly anybody recognizes the recession? Perhaps its because of real-time data showing positive growth in GDP and jobs, and the lack of a recent salient shock. Many believe a major negative shock is necessary to start a recession. But think back to the big shocks in the last two recessions. The 9/11 attacks were widely believed to have triggered the 2001 recession that had really started six months earlier. And many thought that the financial turmoil set off by the Lehman Brothers failure caused the 2007-09 recession that had actually begun nine months earlier. At the time, with seemingly positive indeed strongly accelerating GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2008, most didnt realize that a recession was already in progress when Lehman collapsed. The week after, Chairman Bernanke, pressing Congress to enact the TARP legislation, said to the Senate Banking Committee that if it wasnt passed, jobs will be lost [and] GDP will contract namely, a recession would ensue. Sounding a similar tone last week, he warned that if the fiscal cliff wasnt avoided, it would send the economy toppling back into recession. Once again, he seems unaware that a recession is underway. So, what does this recession mean for people? The bottom line is that production, income and sales will keep trending down for now, and employment too is likely to turn down. Nobody likes to be the bearer of bad news, but a recession isnt the end of the world. There have been 47 recessions in the past 222 years and, as before, well see renewed growth after the 48th. Because business cycles are part and parcel of how all market economies operate, thats about as close to a sure thing as it gets. From the Economic Research Institute

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The Icelandic Success Story Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics and ZeroHedge.com Emotionally, I love Icelands financial policies since the crash of 2008: Iceland went after the people who caused the crisis the bankers who created and sold the junk products and tried to shield the general population. But what Iceland did is not just emotionally satisfying. Iceland is recovering, while the rest of the Western world which bailed out the bankers and left the general population to pay for the bankers excess is not.

And best of all, Iceland prosecuted the people who caused the crisis, providing a real disincentive (as opposed to more bailouts and bonuses): Icelands special prosecutor has said it may indict as many as 90 people, while more than 200, including the former chief executives at the three biggest banks, face criminal charges. Larus Welding, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank hf, once Icelands second biggest, was indicted in December for granting illegal loans and is now waiting to stand trial. The former CEO of Landsbanki Islands hf, Sigurjon Arnason, has endured stints of solitary confinement as his criminal investigation continues. That compares with the U.S., where no top bank executives have faced criminal prosecution for their roles in the subprime mortgage meltdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission said last year it had sanctioned 39 senior officers for conduct related to the housing market meltdown. Icelands approach is very much akin to what I have been advocating write down the unsustainable debt, liquidate the junk corporations and banks that failed, disincentivise the behaviour that caused the crisis, and provide help to the ordinary individuals in the real economy (as opposed to phoney stimulus cash to campaign donors and big finance). And Iceland has snapped out of its depression. The rest of the West, where banks continue to behave exactly as they did prior to the crisis, not so much.

Calafia Beach Pundit; Jobs Growth Steady But Slow By Scott Grannis Jobs growth steady but slow Novembers jobs report shed no new light on the labor market situation. Novembers 147K new private sector jobs was in line with what weve been seeing on average for the year to date and for the past three years. Its slightly more than the 130K new jobs per month that need to be created just to keep up with the long-term average growth of the labor force, which is about 1% a year, so if things continue at the same pace the unemployment rate can decline very slowly from here. Its only declined faster because the labor force has grown very little for the past four years, which in turn is a function of many people deciding to drop out. The current 1.5% per year pace of jobs growth is unlikely to translate into anything more than 3.5% real economic growth, assuming productivity growth continues to run at the 1-2% per year pace weve seen in recent years. Thats OK, but it still adds up to the weakest recovery ever.

Bloomberg reports: Few countries blew up more spectacularly than Iceland in the 2008 financial crisis. The local stock market plunged 90 percent; unemployment rose ninefold; inflation shot to more than 18 percent; the countrys biggest banks all failed. This was no post-Lehman Brothers recession: It was a depression. Since then, Iceland has turned in a pretty impressive performance. It has repaid International Monetary Fund rescue loans ahead of schedule. Growth this year will be about 2.5 percent, better than most developed economies. Unemployment has fallen by half. In February, Fitch Ratings restored the countrys investment-grade status, approvingly citing its unorthodox crisis policy response. So what exactly did Iceland do? First, they create an aid package for homeowners: To homeowners with negative equity, the country offered write-offs that would wipe out debt above 110 percent of the property value. The government also provided means-tested subsidies to reduce mortgage-interest expenses: Those with lower earnings, less home equity and children were granted the most generous support. Then, they redenominated foreign currency debt into devalued krone, effectively giving creditors a big haircut: In June 2010, the nations Supreme Court gave debtors another break: Bank loans that were indexed to foreign currencies were declared illegal. Because the Icelandic krona plunged 80 percent during the crisis, the cost of repaying foreign debt more than doubled. The ruling let consumers repay the banks as if the loans were in krona. These policies helped consumers erase debt equal to 13 percent of Icelands $14 billion economy. Now, consumers have money to spend on other things. It is no accident that the IMF, which granted Iceland loans without imposing its usual austerity strictures, says the recovery is driven by domestic demand. What this meant is that unsustainable junk was liquidated. While I am no fan of nationalised banks and believe that eventually they should be sold off, there were no quick and easy bailouts that allowed the financial sector to continue with the same unsustainable bubble-based folly they practiced before the crisis (as has happened throughout the rest of the Western world).

Note the relatively steady growth of private sector jobs as measured by the Establishment Survey (blue line). Both surveys show that the economy has created about 5 million jobs over the past two years. Also note that there is absolutely no sign here of anything like a recession. Jobs growth may be disappointing, but it is still definitely positive.

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After declining from 2008 through early 2011, the labor force has resumed a 1% annual pace of growth over the past year. But it is still more than 5 million below where it could have been if long-term trends were still in place. The Fed is doing all it can to promote faster growth, by purchasing on net about $1.5 trillion worth of MBS and Treasuries in the past four years. So far, however, there is no sign that they have managed to increase the pace of jobs growth. Their main accomplishment has been to satisfy the worlds almost insatiable demand for risk-free short-term securities, which in turn has been driven by fear of sovereign defaults, a double-dip recession, the expectation that massive federal deficits will inevitably result in a huge increase in tax burdens, and concerns that monetary stimulus could prove to be very inflationary. As the chart above shows, the markets current expectation for inflation over the next 10 years is 2.5%, which is pretty much average. But its nowhere near the deflationary levels that most Keynesian models have been predicting given the economys weak recovery and the unprecedented output gap that currently exists.

The November report provided more confirmation that the public sector workforce is no longer shrinking. Despite declining jobs in the past few years, public sector employees have not suffered nearly as much as their private sector counterparts over the past decade: private sector jobs are only now back to where they were in early 2002, whereas public sector jobs have risen on net by 1 million (almost 5%). Its still the case that the best job security and the best pay and benefits can be found in the public sector.

The chart above is a more sensitive measure of inflation expectations. The blue line shows that the bond market expects inflation to average a little over 3% during the period 2018-2023. Thats not very frightening, but it does suggest that whats driving the rise in equity prices over the past year or so is inflation expectations rather than growth expectations. The Fed has absolutely succeeded in snuffing out any deflationary threat, but instead of boosting jobs growth, they have merely boosted the markets confidence that future cash flows to U.S. businesses will be rising by at least 2.5-3% per year, even if the economy posts very weak growth. The negative real yields on TIPS, which are at or close to all-time lows, are a clear sign that the market expects future economic growth to be dismal. At the same time, the inflation expectations built into TIPS and Treasury prices say that the market expects inflation to be at least as high in the future as it has been in the past. Growth expectations are falling, while inflation expectations and equities are rising. Translation: equities are behaving more like inflation hedges these days, than like barometers of real growth expectations.

Thanks to below-trend growth in the labor force and the relatively tepid growth of jobs, the economy has fallen farther behind its long-term growth trend than at any time in modern history. This is the weakest recovery ever. Fewer people working means the tax base is a lot smaller than it could be, and that is main source of a shortfall in tax revenues. Faster economic growth, powered by faster job creation, is the key to shrinking the fiscal deficit from the revenue side. Raising tax rates will only risk retarding the rate of growth. Are you listening, Mr. Obama?

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Briefing for Congress on the Fiscal Cliff: Lessons from the 1930s by Steve Keen on December 6th, 2012 at 8:50 am Outgoing Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich arranged for me to give a briefing at Congress today on the Fiscal Cliff, and how the downturn of 1937 could be a foretaste of what will happen if the Cliff comes to pass. I argue that an attempt by the government to reduce its debt now may trigger a renewed bout of deleveraging by the private sectorand this is what appeared to happen in 1937, when confidence that the worst of the Depression was over led to the government reducing its deficit. Private sector deleveraging, which had stopped in 1934-35, began once more and unemployment rapidly rose from about 10 to almost 20 percent. The main danger with the Fiscal Cliff is therefore not what the reduction of government spending will do on its own, but that it might trigger a renewed bout of deleveraging from the $40 trillion overhang of private debt that I call the Rock of Damocles. Click here to download the paper I presented; Click here to download the Powerpoint slides.

State laying groundwork for managed bankruptcy for Detroit -- The Detroit News

This will be the last strategy letter till after Christmas because of vacation and preparation of a forward-looking note as we enter 2013. But I want to mention one concern I have as I try to formulate an approach to investment for 2013. Every couple of decades or so, on an irregular basis, events occur which have such a strong psychological impact that the investment world is changed forever. The classic case in the United States is the Great Depression. The scope and duration of that event altered the behavior of potential investors for decades. The Viet Nam era with the Great Society domestic spending created a terrible inflation in the US that lasted until Paul Volcker throttled money supply growth and broke the cycle. But inflation fears from that period have stayed with the boomer generation to this day. I believe the current era of financial crisis and debt excess is another event that will alter behavior for years to come. My generation, the baby boomers, will never view the stock markets the same way as they did pre 2000, and the younger generation will never again feel the same level of economic security as they had become accustomed to before. The result will be a change in the aggregate behavior of investors, which will drive changes in market behavior, which will in turn alter Wall Street.

Anyone relying on a return to previous conditions and static methods is going to be left behind, and out of business. My suggestion is that we each give some thought to how we believe the market place will adjust and what we can do keep up with or even ahead of those adjustments. Happy Holiday Wishes to each of you and your families. Bruce Lawrence Dec 10, 2012

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