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Probability
Probability is a measure of how likely something is to happen or the likely truth of a statement. Another name for probability is likelihood. The measure of probability ranges from 0 (or 0%) which means that it is impossible to 1 (or 100%) which indicates certainty. For example when a coin is tossed then there is always an equal probability or a head or a tail; each has a probability of (or 50%). Often the determination of probabilities requires the manipulation of fractions 1. If we are trying to evaluate a quantity through an experiment is called the result of the experiment and its value found from the experiment is called an outcome of the result. The outcome is unknown before the experiment is carried out. For example when a coin is about to be tossed it is known that it will produce a result (a head or a tail), but the outcome whether it produces a head or a tail - is not known. If a dice is thrown over and over again and the results are recorded then we could typically receive the following data: 1, 3, 6, 5, 2, 6, 4, 5, 6, 3, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 6, 5 1 . Each throw of the dice can be termed an experiment and the result of each throw may be termed an outcome. There are six possible outcomes and each are equally likely so the probability of achieving any particular outcome is The outcomes form sample data, but the population has an equal number of each outcome since as the number of dice throws increases we would expect the frequencies of each outcome to tend to equalise. Data such as this can be presented2 or analysed for its average3 or spread4. The result of a random experiment such as throwing a dice gives us a specific outcome. However, we are often more interested in knowing whether a specific outcome lies within a range of possible outcomes. For example in throwing a dice we may be interests in whether the outcome is an even number. For this the term event is used; an even number is any one of three possible outcomes: 2, 4 or 6. If all outcomes are equally likely then the probability of the event can be found by the formula: probability of the event =

In the case of the dice, all outcomes are equally likely so the probability of achieving an even number when throwing a dice is or In the cases where the outcomes are not necessarily equally likely then probability of the event = sum of probabilities for each outcome included in the event . In the case of the dice, all outcomes have a probability of 1/6, so achieving an even number when throwing a dice is P(2)+P(4)+P(6)= 1/6+1/6+1/6 = .

Fractions How to Present Information 3 Measures of Average, Centre or Central Tendency 4 Measures of Spread or Dispersion
1 2

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As another example, if we pick a card from a pack of 52 playing cards then the probability that it is any particular card is . For example the probability that a card chosen at random from In some cases an event can be achieved through a number the pack is the five of spades is

of outcomes. For example the probability that a card chosen at random is an ace could be achieved in four ways: ace of hearts, ace of clubs, ace of spades or ace of diamonds. So the probability of achieving an ace is .

Probability of two or more independent events If the probability of a first event is P1 and the probability of a second event is P2, and the events are independent then the probability of both events happening is P 1P2. Fr example if a coin is tossed and a dice is thrown then the probability of achieving a head and a six is Probability of two or more dependent events In some cases the probability of the second event happening is dependent on the outcome of the first event, in this case the events are said to be dependent. For example consider a bag containing two blue balls and two red balls and we take two balls out at random and ask the probability of choosing two red balls. The probability that the first ball is red is the case then that is . So the probability that both balls are red is Probability of any of a set of mutually exclusive events If events are mutually exclusive then the probability of any one of them happening is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the individual events. Let us consider the probability of getting a court card when a card is chosen randomly from a pack. The probability of an event of a Jack, Queen or King is the same as that of an Ace, that is Hence the probability of court card is . . , but the probability that the second ball is red is dependent on whether the first ball is red and if this is

Let us now consider the probability of getting a court card or an ace when cards are taken randomly from a pack. Since the event of getting a court card and that the event of getting an ace card are mutually exclusive then the probability of getting a court car or an ace is . Let us now consider another example. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting a total score of 5? In the table below it shows that there are 36 possible outcomes and of these only four produce a total of 5. So the answer is Dice 2 \Dice 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

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Probability of any of a set of non mutually exclusive events If events are not mutually exclusive then we find the probability of them both happening by addition as in the case of mutually exclusive events but subtract the probability of both events happening together (that is the product). For example, what is the probability that a card chosen from a pack is an ace or a heart? The method suggests that the probability is This result is confirmed by the table below, which shows that the probability is Hearts Clubs Spades Diamonds Ace Ace Ace Ace 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 Jack Jack Jack Jack Queen Queen Queen Queen King King King King