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March 2013
U-S-A...U-S-A...
The odds of winning were slim and none. Avoiding embarrassment was the real objective, but then something happened. Momentum changed and the rag-tag bunch of American college hockey players shocked not only the Soviets and their 1980 Big Red Machine, but the entire sports World. When seemingly faced with the impossible, America always perseveres and finds a way to win. After winning the global economic game for the better part of 100 years, America is once again on the ropes and no one is giving her any hopes at winning, or even surviving for that matter. Americas debt levels are disastrous. It has no money to pay future pensions and healthcare. Economic growth is anemic. Meanwhile, more Americans than at any other time in history reply upon food stamps. And to make matters even more dire, it is only the decision to print trillions of new dollar bills that is holding everything together. Just as Americas rock is about to hit its American bottom, you must ask Do you believe in miracles? And, the short answer is yes. US Dollar Strength Way back in November 2011, our Global Outlook Return of the Dollar concluded when it comes to currencies it doesnt matter how you look in isolation its how you look when lined up next to your neighbour.
March 2013
$60,000,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000,000
$15,000,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000,000
$-
GDP
Source: IceCap Asset Management Limited, www.justfacts.com
Unfunded Liabilities
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March 2013
Honda vs Hyundai
independent perspective. Unfortunately in financial analysis, all too often investors become one or two dimensional at best. To really up your investment game, you need to broaden your perspective and see through the daily grind of financial pomp and circumstance. Case in point inflation. Whereas our leading central banks report that their money printing ways are not creating inflation. Ask emerging market central banks, and theyll tell you a different story. While it is certainly true that American Quantitative Easing 1,2,3 and 4 is creating very little inflation in the US, the effect on emerging markets is a different story. All of this newly minted money has to go somewhere, and one thing is for certain it certainly isnt going into the US domestic economy. Instead, financial assets are pouring overseas to Asia and driving up inflation, currencies and local property markets. While we disagree with recent conjecture that central banks will one day soon put an end to their money printing ways, one thing is certain the effect on emerging markets will not be kind. While much discussion is focused on US domestic financial markets, the American withdrawal of liquidity will have a severe effect on emerging markets. To further expand your financial horizons, one must also be contemplating the effect of Japans newly embraced money printing programs. Whereas America has committed to printing $2.67 billion a
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March 2013
The Crisis in Cyprus
leaders have become very effective at ensuring everyone and everything not called a bank will take losses. Private companies you are out of luck, line up for your losses. Wealthy individuals go cry elsewhere, you are directed towards the higher taxes line up. And for everyone else sorry, nothing for you either. Except instead of losses on your investments and or higher taxes on your wealth, you are forced to accept ultra low returns and the pleasure of having 3-4 generations of your family living under one roof again. The question on everyones mind today is can it get any worse? For the answer, look no further than Cyprus. Cyprus is easy to dismiss. While your financial advisor is telling you Cyprus is a tiny country with a tiny economy, tiny banks and a tiny debt problem dont worry; the non-herd following investment managers of the World understand there is much more at stake. However, what isnt so tiny is the resulting geopolitical, economic, and monetary ramifications. In Europe, the crisis in Cyprus has proved to be THE most important showdown thus far. While the situations in Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Greece were all mostly the same and somewhat different Cyprus was simply a product of bad timing. From a fundamental perspective, the mighty little tax haven was no different than anyone else. The governments finances grew out of whack while simultaneously its banking system grew even more out
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March 2013
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March 2013
Cypus: new template
Which brings us to Germany. The September 22, 2013 federal election is rapidly approaching. Although Chancellor Merkels coalition currently enjoys a cushion, distaste for additional bailouts is growing and the sudden emergence of a new political party is causing consternation for Ms. Merkel. Its for this reason that a new bailout using German tax payer money was risky indeed. Throw in the nuance of bailout money going to help uber wealthy Russians, and it is easy to see why Cyprus didnt stand a chance. IceCap will not recite the facts and storyline of the Cyprus bailout this information is readily available. We believe the most important question is whether Cyprus is the new template for European (and eventually global) debt restructuring? Prior to Cyprus, the European bailout model resulted in buckets of new debt for the underlying country combined with crippling spending cuts and tax increases. Any investment losses occurred for stock holders of the banks and in some situations the bond holders. Bank deposits were never in play. The Cyprus template changed everything. Now everyday, average people who saved their entire lives and never participated in the world of global finance are being forced to cough up some money towards the bailout and losing a part of their bank deposit.
March 2013
You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave
Naturally, Brussels considers itself a master of game theory and whether to tax or not to tax the depositors in Cyprus. In the end, they concluded the risk of Merkel losing the German election outweighed the probability of the bank deposit runs spreading elsewhere in Europe. With Slovenia up next on the bailout chopping block, well get to see whether the Euro-zone really is a Hotel California. The burning question is whether depositors will once again be invited to contribute to the bailout. Our guess is that Brussels is desperate to show that Cyprus was a one-off event and that depositors elsewhere in the Euro-zone are not at risk. Slovenia deposits should be safe. But seriously, if you have money in a Slovenian bank were pretty sure you are on the cusp of a major withdrawal. Chart 3, next page shows the result of the European bailout strategy. Overall, new debt that can never be repaid is forced upon tax payers all while higher taxes and reduced spending produces long lasting recessions. As long as Brussels continues to treat the symptoms of the debt crisis, the odds of resolution are slim and none. Over time, increasingly more and more private capital will leave the Euro-zone and seek relative safety elsewhere. Considering Britain and Japan are also fully engaged in money printing, currency debasement and bank bailouts, expect the same in these countries as well. This is where the USD comes into play. We believe over time, private capital will move towards the US. For better or worse, the USD is the
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March 2013
500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Ireland 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Ireland 5% 14% 25% 117%
471% *
68%
120%
107%
162%
Portugal
Before Bailout
After Bailout
Greece 27%
Cyprus 24% *
Unemployment Rate
8%
17%
*
7% 4% Cyprus
Portugal
Before Bailout
Greece
After Bailout
March 2013
A confidence game
continues to present a very favourable situation for gold bullion and other precious metals. During the transition towards stronger demand for USD, we expect gold to trade within long and volatile ranges. Due to technicalities, many investors (mostly institutional investors such as pension funds, bank assets etc) cannot invest in gold bullion. For this reason, gold will increase dramatically against non-USD currencies but trade inline with USD. However, a point will eventually be reached where, just as investors lost confidence in EUR, Yen and GBP, they too will lose confidence in USD and then you will see surging prices for gold bullion. Bottom line dont be surprised by further USD strength, it will happen. Our Strategy One thing about IceCap Asset Management is our ongoing focus on transparency. For better or worse, we share with clients, non clients and other managers our investment strategy and provide critique when warranted. Our recent decision to increase equities in early December followed by a quick reversal of the trade in the middle of February remains correct. Global equities have zigged and zagged but remain at the exact same level since we last traded. Our sentiment models continue to guide us towards caution, and well retain this stance until conditions change in either direction.
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