14 | Our draft Water Resources Management Plan: Overview and consultation

Resilience of water supplies

A resilient water supply system is crucial if we are to supply customers with the water they need. It is also vital to the economic growth of London and the wider South-East. We need to be confident that our water supply system can withstand future challenges.
The 2012 drought The two-year period from April 2010 to March 2012 was the driest ever recorded. As a result, spring 2012 saw the lowest groundwater levels on record in parts of our area, raising serious concerns about the capacity of the water supply system to cope. In April 2012, we needed to impose a temporary use ban. If the drought had continued, we would have been forced to introduce further restrictions during the summer, significantly restricting peoples supply of water conditions not seen since 1976. Our water supply modelling shows that rainfall at that level would have led to exceptionally low levels of reservoir storage and a requirement for emergency measures by the autumn. At the time we imposed restrictions, we did not know what was ahead and needed to plan for continued low rainfall. We were close to applying for drought permits and a drought order, which would have enabled us to take more water from the environment and restrict commercial use of water. We were planning a wide range of potential measures in case the drought continued over the summer. These included pumping water in the River Thames back upstream, so that it would not be lost to the sea and could be abstracted. While this and other measures would have provided more drinking water, they would also have taken more water from the environment when it was already suffering from the impacts of drought. They would also have severely restricted downstream areas being used for recreation or navigation. The drought highlighted the potential risks and raised questions within the industry, and from regulators and the Government, regarding the adequacy of our water supply provisions.

Technical terms

Fortunately, we experienced an extremely wet spring and early summer, allowing us to lift the restrictions in June. It is now easy to suggest that there was never a serious risk to supply. However, studies of past weather conditions show this was not case. Analysis of historical rainfall patterns shows there was a probability of just three per cent that we would receive the heavy rainfall we did 165 per cent of the average for the April-to-October period. But it would have been just as probable three per cent again that we received 60 per cent or less of average rainfall during those six months.

Abstraction is the removal of water from any source, either permanently or temporarily. Resilience refers to the ability of our systems to maintain supplies under extreme circumstances, such as extended droughts.

Our draft Water Resources Management Plan: Overview and consultation | 15

2012 Seventh wettest year on record

Above or below average rainfall (%) 129 year record

April 2010 to March 2012 Driest two year period on record

2010

2011

2012

Figure 5 Thames catchment rainfall January 2010 to December 2012 Looking ahead, without intervention, we believe the current level of resilience is not sufficient for the future. Drought in our region has the potential to cause significant environmental damage due to our reliance upon environmentally sensitive water sources, such as chalk streams in the Kennet Valley. Londons water supply system was not designed to cope with weather conditions outside those previously experienced and projections suggest the climate is changing, with extended droughts increasingly frequent. In addition, as the following sections will show, population growth is forecast to continue and put additional pressure on resources.