Professional Documents
Culture Documents
90 80 70
Pricing power continues to improve as buyers look to take advantage of attractive affordability but find little supply
60 50 40
30
20 10 0
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
March Survey of Real Estate Agents: Pricing Strength Continues as Spring Season is in Full Swing
Lack of supply, increasing dem and pushes pricing higher: We saw broad strength in pricing across nearly all metro areas in March, with the momentum from the start of the year continuing. Traffic continued at very healthy levels with the incremental change that buyers recognize the need to act quickly due to the lack of inventory. All but three of the 40 markets we survey showed traffic ahead of expectations, and all but one market showed rising home prices (with the remaining market seeing flat prices).
Pricing power seen across all m arkets with bidding wars becom ing quite com m on due to the lack of inventory: Our home price index jumped once again, reaching 83.7, well above peak levels from the past (indicating the breadth of the improvement in pricing, not that prices are back to peak levels). The price index moved up by 4.5 points in March, but further increases in our index would get even more difficult from such a high level of 83.7. 11 of the 40 markets actually had price indices of 90 or higher, which basically indicates that nearly every agent in the market saw rising prices during the month. The greatest strength was seen in California, Florida, and the Southwest, although strength was seen in almost all markets. Traffic continues at a healthy clip: Our buyer traffic index was up slightly to 66.1 in March from 65.1 in February, continuing to point to traffic above agents expectations. 37 of the 40 markets showed traffic above expectations (Columbus and Ft. Myers fell short of expectations and Phoenix was in-line). Dallas, Charlotte, San Diego and San Francisco had the strongest readings. Shorter tim e to sell reflects increasing buyer urgency: Our time to sell index a leading indicator for home price trends increased by another 5 points to 80.8 in March, indicating less time needed to sell a home. We think this reflects rising buyer urgency, driven by improving confidence, a desire to lock in low prices/rates, and a lack of supply across markets (our home listings index came in at 71.7, indicating lower inventory). This should continue to drive prices higher near-term.
Home Price Index 68.3 66.4 68.3 74.6 79.3 83.7 4.5 Incentive Index 48.2 46.7 49.9 52.4 51.5 53.0 1.5 Home Listings Index 73.7 74.0 75.7 74.7 72.7 71.7 (1.1) Time to Sell Index 63.6 63.3 68.3 71.5 75.4 80.8 5.4
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
Buyer Traffic Month Index Oct-12 47.7 Nov-12 49.0 Dec-12 52.0 Jan-13 59.0 Feb-13 65.1 Mar-13 66.1 Point Change 1.0
15%
80%
60%
70%
68%
68%
48% 37%
40%
26%
3% Home Prices
20%
0%
13%
19%
6%
26%
Incentives
Meets expectations
Increased
Table of Contents
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Key Housing Markets: Atlanta, Georgia Austin, Texas Baltimore, Maryland Boston, Massachusetts Charleston, South Carolina Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Cincinnati, Ohio Columbus, Ohio Dallas, Texas Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Fort Myers, Florida Houston, Texas Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California Jacksonville, Florida Las Vegas, Nevada Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Minneapolis, Minnesota Nashville, Tennessee New York-Northern New Jersey 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 45 50 52 Key Housing Markets Continued: Orlando, Florida Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey Phoenix, Arizona Portland, Oregon Raleigh, North Carolina Richmond, Virginia Sacramento, California San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Sarasota, Florida Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Tucson, Arizona Virginia Beach, Virginia Washington, D.C. Wilmington, North Carolina Appendix: Historical Trends by Market Agent Recommendations Survey Methodology
March 13 Slide 3
Atlanta, GA Further Pricing Strength as Buyers See Shrinking Supply and Gain Urgency
(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index moderated to 64 in March from 73 in February, but continued to indicate traffic levels above agents expectations for this time of year. Buyer urgency still seems to be improving as inventory remains low.
Nov-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Home prices increased again, as our home price index came in at 83 in March vs. 85 in February.
Inventory declined, but our index dropped to 75 from 93 in March, suggesting more product may be coming to market soon (a reading of 50 points to flat inventory). It also took less time to sell a home, as our index improved to 88 from 77.
Buyer Traffic Index 60.9 50.0 53.3 45.5 73.1 63.6 (9.4) Home Price Index 58.3 52.9 55.6 36.4 84.6 83.3 (1.3) Incentive Index 28.3 41.2 43.8 45.5 42.9 50.0 7.1 Home Listings Index 77.1 73.5 75.0 90.9 92.9 75.0 (17.9) Time to Sell Index 56.3 61.8 68.8 59.1 76.9 87.5 10.6
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
18%
75%
82%
75%
46%
60%
40%
36%
20% 0%
17%
25%
8%
9%
9%
0%
Home Prices
Incentives
Time to Sell
Decreased
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 4
Austin, TX Growing Population and Employment Base Continue to Drive Strength in Traffic/Pricing
(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations, as our buyer traffic was unchanged at 77 in March (well above a neutral reading of 50). Nearly every agent noted higher home prices in March, as our home price index increased to 97 from 93 in February. This was the 12th straight month of higher prices in our survey. There are signs sellers may finally be listing more homes, as our home listings index fell to 63 in March from 86 in February, getting closer to a neutral level of 50 despite high levels of buyer urgency (our time to sell index was unchanged at 93).
Buyer Traffic Index 61.1 42.3 53.1 57.1 76.7 76.7 0.0 Home Price Index 75.0 70.8 78.1 82.1 93.3 96.7 3.3 Incentive Index 38.2 34.6 53.1 57.1 66.7 63.3 (3.3) Home Listings Index 83.3 76.9 71.9 64.3 85.7 63.3 (22.4) Time to Sell Index 63.9 76.9 71.9 75.0 93.3 93.3 0.0
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 120
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
100
80 60
40 20 0
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
7%
100%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 93% 60% 33% 7% 0% 7% Incentives 0% 13% 87%
80%
33%
60%
Home Prices
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Increased
March 13 Slide 5
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index slipped to 61 in March from 67 in February, still pointing to traffic above expectations. Well continue to watch for more comments and signs of whether looming spending cuts will have a meaningful impact, but for now a lack of inventory appears at least as important. Home prices increased for the third straight month, as our home price index jumped to 80 in March from 58 in February. Our home listings and time to sell indices remained at favorable levels above a neutral 50, but declined to 75 and 65, respectively, in March from 92 in February.
Buyer Traffic Index 28.6 28.6 38.9 33.3 66.7 61.1 (5.6) Home Price Index 50.0 64.3 50.0 55.6 58.3 80.0 21.7 Incentive Index 33.3 41.7 33.3 62.5 50.0 55.6 5.6 Home Listings Index 85.7 92.9 83.3 87.5 91.7 75.0 (16.7) Time to Sell Index 57.1 71.4 66.7 72.2 91.7 65.0 (26.7)
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 80% 60% 70%
67% 50%
40%
20%
0%
30% 20%
Increased
March 13 Slide 6
Boston, MA Increased Buyer Urgency Driving Higher Traffic and Home Prices
(4,075 single-family permits in 2012, 28th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Buyer traffic improved further, as our buyer traffic index increased to 81 in March from 73 in February (readings above 50 point to better than expected traffic). Agents noted continued improvement in buyer urgency, driven by fear of missing out on all-time best affordability levels. Home prices also continued to move higher, as our home price index increased to 89 in March from 87 in February. It took less time to sell a home a positive for pricing as our index improved to 82 from 77, while inventory also decreased, albeit only modestly (our index fell to 61 from 73).
Buyer Traffic Index 42.3 53.3 50.0 61.1 73.3 80.8 7.4 Home Price Index 50.0 56.3 70.0 80.6 86.7 88.5 1.8 Incentive Index 53.8 57.7 60.5 52.8 53.6 65.4 11.8 Home Listings Index 50.0 75.0 84.2 76.3 73.3 60.7 (12.6) Time to Sell Index 53.8 63.3 72.5 81.6 76.7 82.1 5.5
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
8%
100% 80%
23%
71%
60%
40% 23% 20% 0% Increased 21%
69%
Home Prices
Meets expectations
Charleston, SC Buyers Feel More Confident and Want to Take Advantage of Attractive Affordability
(3,128 single-family permits in 2012, 34th largest market in the country)
70
Buyer Traffic Index
60
50 40 30
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index improved to 57 in March, indicating stronger traffic, above agents expectations (any reading above 50) as buyer look to lock in attractive affordability. Home prices continued to increase, as home price index improved to 86 in March from 67 in February. Leading indicators for home prices were favorable in March, as our home listings index improved to 57, pointing to lower supply, and our time to sell index improved to 79, pointing to a shorter time needed to sell.
Buyer Traffic Index 50.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 57.1 32.1 Home Price Index 66.7 60.0 70.0 75.0 66.7 85.7 19.0 Incentive Index 50.0 50.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 Home Listings Index 66.7 60.0 41.7 25.0 50.0 57.1 7.1 Time to Sell Index 50.0 60.0 66.7 62.5 37.5 78.6 41.1
20
10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
14%
29%
57%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100% 71%
29% 0% Home Prices 0% 0% 0% Time to Sell Decreased 57%
43%
Incentives
Increased
Charlotte, NC Broad Price Gains Seen as Buyers Move Off the Fence
(6,704 single-family permits in 2012, 10th largest market in the country)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index improved to 91 in March from 86 in February, as traffic exceeded 82% of agents expectations (and met expectations for the remaining 18%). The fear factor is back, but this time its the fear of missing out on low prices and low rates, according to agents. Home prices continued to increase in March, as every agent surveyed pointed to higher prices (leading to an index of 100 vs. 82 in February). Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell should support further price increases in the coming months.
Buyer Traffic Index 26.9 59.1 50.0 75.0 86.4 90.9 4.5 Home Price Index 73.1 72.7 72.2 85.0 81.8 100.0 18.2 Incentive Index 53.8 40.9 44.4 54.5 45.5 63.6 18.2 Home Listings Index 92.3 81.8 83.3 86.4 72.7 72.7 0.0 Time to Sell Index 65.4 65.0 61.1 75.0 63.6 95.0 31.4
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 120
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
100
80 60
40 20 0
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
18%
0%
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 100% 73% 27% 0% 0% Home Prices 0% Incentives 0% 10% 90%
82%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Increased
March 13 Slide 9
Chicago, IL Traffic Remains Above Expectations While Home Prices Begin to Move Higher
(5,665 single-family permits in 2012, 14th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index edged lower to 64 in March from 68 in February, but remained above a neutral reading for the third straight month (indicating better than expected traffic) as Chicago continues to play catch-up.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12
The pricing environment is also continuing to gain traction, as our home price index improved to 76 in March from 61 in February.
Inventory and time to sell trends continued to move in the right direction, as our home listings index improved to 78 in March and our time to sell index improved to 75.
Buyer Traffic Index 42.4 41.1 46.4 60.6 68.3 63.5 (4.8) Home Price Index 46.9 42.6 44.6 62.0 60.9 76.4 15.5 Incentive Index 39.7 47.9 50.0 50.0 57.4 51.6 (5.8) Home Listings Index 62.5 78.6 81.5 78.0 64.1 77.8 13.7 Time to Sell Index 54.7 58.9 62.5 59.2 68.8 75.0 6.3
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
16%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 66% 56%
61%
43%
42%
16% 3% Home Prices Incentives 19% 28% 11% Time to Sell Decreased
41%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 10
Cincinnati, OH Lower Inventory and Shorter Time to Sell Suggest Prices Likely to Move Higher
(2,668 single-family permits in 2012, 47th largest market in the country)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index came in at 67 in March, down slightly from 70 in February but still indicating healthy traffic levels (any reading above 50 points to traffic levels above agents expectations for this time of year).
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
60
50 40 30 20
Home prices also increased, as our home price index came in at 58 in March vs. 60 in February, the sixth consecutive month of higher prices.
Our home listings index bounced back to 83 from 60 in February, pointing to lower supply, while our time to sell index also came in at 83, indicating less time needed to sell a home.
Buyer Traffic Index 25.0 66.7 59.1 71.4 70.0 66.7 (3.3) Home Price Index 60.0 66.7 54.5 57.1 60.0 58.3 (1.7) Incentive Index 50.0 50.0 55.0 42.9 50.0 58.3 8.3 Home Listings Index 75.0 75.0 81.8 92.9 60.0 83.3 23.3 Time to Sell Index 50.0 50.0 68.2 71.4 80.0 83.3 3.3
10 0
Jul-11 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
100% 80%
67%
50% 33% 17%
50%
33%
60%
40% 20% 0% 17%
33% 0%
0%
Home Prices Incentives
Time to Sell
Meets expectations
Increased
Decreased
Columbus, OH Traffic Slips, Falls Below Expectations as Buyers Wait for Better Supply
(2,899 single-family permits in 2012, 38th largest market in the country)
70
Buyer Traffic Index
60
50 40 30
Our Take:
Buyer traffic dropped below agents expectations in March, as our buyer traffic index fell to 40 from 57 in February (readings below 50 point to weaker than expected traffic). Agents continue to cite a lack of inventory needed to attract buyers.
20
10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Our home price index also fell to 60 in March from 69 in February, but remained above a neutral level of 50, suggesting modestly higher prices over the past 30 days.
Inventory continued to trend lower (our home listings index increased to 80), and it is taking less time to sell (our time to sell index improved to 90).
Buyer Traffic Index 61.1 45.5 50.0 50.0 57.1 40.0 (17.1) Home Price Index 62.5 63.6 54.5 75.0 68.8 60.0 (8.8) Incentive Index 43.8 36.4 35.0 50.0 42.9 40.0 (2.9) Home Listings Index 75.0 90.9 72.7 66.7 68.8 80.0 11.3 Time to Sell Index 75.0 77.3 59.1 83.3 87.5 90.0 2.5
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
20% 40%
100%
80% 60% 40%
80%
80%
40% 40%
20% 20% 0% Home Prices Incentives 0% Time to Sell Decreased 20%
20%
40%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
0% Increased
Dallas, TX Reaching All-Time Highs in Our Survey on Buyer Traffic and Home Price Indices
(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index surged to another new record-high level of 92 in March (from 71 in February) from 56 in January, indicating strong traffic levels, driven by a more robust local economy combined with very attractive affordability.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Our home price index also hit a new high, rising to 83 in March from 79 in February, pointing to improving pricing power for sellers.
The lower inventory and shorter time to sell should support further price gains, as our home listings index came in at 71 and our time to sell index hit 96 (well above a neutral 50).
Buyer Traffic Index 63.6 59.1 58.3 56.3 70.8 91.7 20.8 Home Price Index 65.4 63.6 54.2 81.3 79.2 83.3 4.2 Incentive Index 53.8 40.0 45.0 50.0 50.0 54.5 4.5 Home Listings Index 88.5 50.0 72.7 75.0 75.0 70.8 (4.2) Time to Sell Index 65.4 59.1 63.6 65.6 79.2 95.8 16.7
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
0%
100% 80%
67% 33% 0%
Home Prices Incentives 36%36% 27%
60%
40% 20% 0%
0%
8%
83%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Time to Sell
Increased
Decreased
March 13 Slide 13
Denver, CO Home Prices Continuing to Rebound, but Buyers are Having a Hard Time the Right Home
(5,616 single-family permits in 2012, 15th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index edged down to 71 in March from 74 in February, but remained at levels indicating traffic above agents expectations (readings above 50). Our home price index continued to hit new highs for our survey, rising to 90 in March from 88 in February, indicating nearly all agents saw higher home prices over the past 30 days. Low inventory levels and a shorter time to sell remain supportive, but both indices saw big sequential declines, suggesting some agents may be seeing supply returning.
Buyer Traffic Index 53.3 63.5 56.8 69.6 73.9 70.8 (3.1) Home Price Index 82.8 68.5 65.9 82.1 87.5 89.6 2.1 Incentive Index 52.0 43.5 50.0 51.9 52.2 54.5 2.4 Home Listings Index 77.6 70.4 93.2 76.8 84.8 69.6 (15.2) Time to Sell Index 79.3 66.7 73.8 76.8 93.8 76.1 (17.7)
Nov-12
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
4%
100%
80%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 79% 64% 39% 21% 0% Home Prices 23%
46% 50%
57%
14%
4%
Time to Sell Decreased
0%
Increased
Incentives
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 14
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index improved to 68 in March from 58 in February continuing the uptrend seen since November and indicating traffic levels above agents expectations (any reading above 50). Buyers appear to be gaining confidence and want to take advantage of low prices and rates before its too late. Home prices continued to trend higher, as our home price index was down slightly to 85 from 86 but well above a neutral level of 50. Our home listings index came in at 73, and our time to sell index came in at 84 both are positives for pricing
Buyer Traffic Index 35.3 32.1 37.5 40.0 58.3 67.5 9.2 Home Price Index 72.2 64.3 79.2 66.7 86.1 85.0 (1.1) Incentive Index 55.9 54.2 40.9 60.7 55.6 55.3 (0.3) Home Listings Index 77.8 82.1 79.2 86.7 75.0 72.5 (2.5) Time to Sell Index 63.9 60.7 66.7 63.3 79.4 84.2 4.8
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
10%
100% 80%
70%
30%
68%
45%
45%
60%
40%
20% 0%
32% 0%
5% 16%
Home Prices
Incentives
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 15
Ft. Myers, FL Buyers are Frustrated by Recent Price Increases and Difficulty Finding Good Deals
(1,806 single-family permits in 2012, 65th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Buyer traffic worsened relative to agents expectations for this time of year in March, as our buyer traffic index fell to 38 from 50, below a neutral 50. Buyers seem to be taking a step back given the recent price increases and lack of attractive inventory. Home prices increased again in March, as our home price index edged up to 77 from 75, but weaker traffic and buyer pushback to price increases could be issues ahead. Inventory and time to sell trends remained at favorable levels above a neutral 50, but both indices decreased sequentially.
Buyer Traffic Index 46.4 62.5 28.6 47.4 50.0 37.5 (12.5) Home Price Index 75.0 87.5 85.7 85.0 75.0 77.3 2.3 Incentive Index 53.8 45.8 50.0 40.0 38.9 45.5 6.6 Home Listings Index 60.7 70.8 71.4 72.5 83.3 72.7 (10.6) Time to Sell Index 60.7 87.5 75.0 77.5 66.7 63.6 (3.0)
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
16% 42%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
27%
9% Home Prices
36%
18%
45%
Low inventory. Investors are switching their business model from buy and flip to buy and rent.
Buyers are increasingly motivated to jump in.
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
More than expected
42%
Incentives
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 16
Houston, TX Demand Remains Solid, though Concerns Grow Over Limited Supply in the Right Places
(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index retreated from its all-time high reached last month, falling to 63 in March from 78 in February. Agents still were overwhelmingly positive, though there may now be a higher bar for expectations given the recent strength.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Our home price index came in at 79 in March, down from 82 in February but continuing to point to higher prices (any reading above 50).
Our home listings index improved to 92 from 79, while our time to sell index improved to 83 from 78, pointing to lower inventory and less time needed to sell, respectively.
Buyer Traffic Index 42.1 40.0 50.0 61.9 77.8 62.5 (15.3) Home Price Index 69.4 76.7 79.4 83.3 81.6 79.2 (2.4) Incentive Index 50.0 42.3 44.1 45.2 50.0 45.8 (4.2) Home Listings Index 80.0 75.0 82.4 76.2 78.9 92.3 13.4 Time to Sell Index 73.7 71.4 88.2 87.5 77.8 83.3 5.6
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
25%
50%
40%
20%
Demand from ALL sectors. Get in before prices go up. Lack of inventory is becoming a legitimate concern.
Weather, uncertainty over jobs.
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
25%
0%
8%
17%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 17
Inland Empire, CA Lack of Supply Continues to Spur Large Price Gains, Adding to Buyer Urgency
(4,229 single-family permits in 2012, 26th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Buyer traffic improved in March, as our traffic index increased to 71 from 64. Significant price increases driven by extremely tight supply are creating increased buyer urgency, but also leading to plenty of frustration.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Home prices continued to strengthen, as our home price index improved to 90 in March from 82 in February, with 84% of agents noting higher prices.
Inventory continues to trend lower, as our home listings index came in at 76, above a neutral 50. The lack of inventory remains a restriction on sales, but a positive for pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 55.6 58.8 66.7 70.8 63.6 71.1 7.4 Home Price Index 88.9 84.4 78.1 83.3 81.8 89.5 7.7 Incentive Index 50.0 46.7 60.0 45.5 59.1 41.7 (17.4) Home Listings Index 83.3 86.7 90.6 95.8 85.0 76.3 (8.7) Time to Sell Index 66.7 78.1 80.0 70.8 86.4 77.8 (8.6)
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
5%
100%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 84% 61% 28% 33% 61%
80%
48% 47%
11% 5%
Home Prices
11%
Incentives
0%
Increased Remained the same
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 18
Jacksonville, FL Buyers Dont Want to Miss the Boat on Prices and Rates
(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index slipped to 67 in March from 69 in February, but remained at levels above agents expectations (any reading above 50). Agents continue to note better demand as buyers dont want to miss the boat on low prices and rates. Home prices continued to increase (the seventh consecutive month), as our home price index increased to 92 in from 88. Our home listings index came in at 83, and our time to sell index came in at 92, both far above neutral levels and positive for pricing in the coming months..
Buyer Traffic Index 50.0 64.3 56.3 75.0 68.8 66.7 (2.1) Home Price Index 65.0 64.3 75.0 75.0 87.5 91.7 4.2 Incentive Index 50.0 35.7 31.3 35.7 43.8 58.3 14.6 Home Listings Index 80.0 85.7 62.5 75.0 87.5 83.3 (4.2) Time to Sell Index 70.0 71.4 62.5 62.5 93.8 91.7 (2.1)
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
100% 80% 60%
50% 33%
40%
20% 0%
17% 0% 0%
17% 0%
17%
Home Prices
Incentives
Time to Sell
Decreased
Meets expectations
Increased
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 65 from 61 in February. Investors were said to still be very active in the market, with traditional buyers looking, but often losing out to cash buyers.
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13
Prices continued to exhibit improvement, as our home price index came in at 98, unchanged from February.
We expect prices to continue to improve, as our home listings index and time to sell index pointed to a decline in each metric. This suggests continued urgency in the market and future pricing gains.
Buyer Traffic Index 55.9 36.7 63.3 61.9 60.9 65.2 4.3 Home Price Index 91.7 83.3 93.3 97.6 97.8 97.9 0.1 Incentive Index 52.9 46.7 56.7 57.1 65.9 66.7 0.8 Home Listings Index 66.7 60.0 66.7 78.6 75.0 77.1 2.1 Time to Sell Index 75.0 66.7 73.3 78.6 84.1 85.4 1.3
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
48% 35%
71%
50% 42% 4% 0% Home Prices 8% Incentives 0% Time to Sell Decreased
29%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 20
Los Angeles, CA Buyers Sense Looming Sellers Market, Move to Act Quickly
(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index improved to 67 in March from 59 in February, suggesting better than expected traffic for this time of year. Agents noted increased urgency stemming from worries concerning higher interest rates and home prices.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Home prices increased further in March, as our home price index improved to 98 from 94 in February, suggesting very broad price improvement in Los Angeles.
Inventories and the time to sell continued to decline in March, suggesting pricing will likely see additional improvement in the coming months, especially as demand remains strong.
Buyer Traffic Index 64.7 62.5 68.0 66.7 59.3 66.7 7.4 Home Price Index 86.8 88.9 88.0 83.9 94.4 98.0 3.6 Incentive Index 44.8 56.3 57.1 59.5 48.0 52.3 4.3 Home Listings Index 88.7 76.8 93.5 86.2 75.0 80.0 5.0 Time to Sell Index 75.8 71.4 79.2 77.6 75.9 88.0 12.1
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
11%
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
86%
45%
44%
76% 24% 0%
4% 0% Home Prices
5%
9%
Incentives
Time to Sell
Decreased
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 21
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index increased to 70 in March from 58 in February. Agents noted that demand from investors, foreigners, and traditional owner-occupants was strong across the board in March.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Prices improved further, with our price index increasing to 92 from 88 in February.
We expect pricing to continue to improve, as our home listings and time to sell indexes pointed to declines in each metric in March. These are positive indicators for future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 48.7 50.0 55.3 60.3 57.6 69.7 12.2 Home Price Index 85.0 86.2 88.2 92.6 88.2 92.1 3.9 Incentive Index 50.0 50.0 45.9 50.0 48.5 54.5 6.0 Home Listings Index 82.1 85.0 85.9 80.0 89.7 87.8 (1.9) Time to Sell Index 70.5 77.6 69.2 78.6 75.0 82.9 7.9
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
13%
100%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 87% 79%
80%
71%
53% 34%
60% 40% 20% 0% Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell Decreased Increased Remained the same
Inventory is very tight. For some this has turned them away from the market, for other it is a signal to act now.
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
11%
3%
6%
15%
24%
5%
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 22
Our Take:
Buyer traffic met expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 53 vs. 64 in February. Buyers were said to be motivated by lower inventories and rising interest rates, fearing they might get priced out if they didnt act soon.
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Prices continued to improve in March, as our price index came in at 81 from 88 in February.
Inventories fell, as did the time needed to sell a home. With further declines in these metrics, we would expect urgency and pricing to continue to increase.
Buyer Traffic Index 59.1 46.9 39.5 57.4 64.3 52.9 (11.3) Home Price Index 77.9 63.2 78.6 83.3 87.9 80.6 (7.4) Incentive Index 37.9 46.9 55.3 48.6 42.3 47.2 4.9 Home Listings Index 88.2 86.4 88.1 84.7 89.3 69.4 (19.8) Time to Sell Index 75.8 74.2 81.0 81.9 84.5 77.8 (6.7)
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 80% 60% 40%
24%
29%
56% 44%
20%
0%
47%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Increased
March 13 Slide 23
Nashville, TN Confidence Remains High, Homes with Multiple Bids Becoming Commonplace
(5,343 single-family permits in 2012, 17th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Traffic remained above agents expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 75 from 83 in February. Agents credited improved confidence and strong urgency for traffic levels in March.
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Prices continued to increase in March, as our home price index came in at 71 from 83 in February.
Inventories and the time to sell fell sharply in March. We think declines in both metrics suggest that the market can support further prices increases, especially as we enter the spring selling season.
Buyer Traffic Index 18.8 50.0 61.1 61.1 83.3 75.0 (8.3) Home Price Index 50.0 64.3 50.0 77.8 83.3 70.8 (12.5) Incentive Index 56.3 42.9 55.6 68.8 50.0 70.8 20.8 Home Listings Index 56.3 64.3 66.7 66.7 70.8 91.7 20.8 Time to Sell Index 31.3 35.7 66.7 72.2 83.3 83.3 0.0
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
8%
80%
75% 58%
25% 17% 0% Home Prices Incentives
60%
58% 42%
8% 17%
33%
59%
40% 20% 0%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 24
60 50
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations in March, as our traffic index improved to 62 from 58 in February. Agents pointed to better confidence, with worries that interest rates will not remain low for much longer.
40 30
20 10 0
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Home prices increased again in March, as our home price index increased to 69 from 60 in February.
Inventory levels fell in March, as did the time to sell (second consecutive month). The lower time to sell is a good indication of urgency, and lower inventories are likely to help this trend continue. Both point to rising prices in upcoming months.
Buyer Traffic Index 34.3 15.1 32.6 45.8 57.5 62.3 4.7 Home Price Index 37.0 39.8 41.5 47.9 59.6 68.6 9.0 Incentive Index 45.7 52.6 54.9 53.8 45.5 48.9 3.4 Home Listings Index 57.4 69.8 70.2 69.8 64.4 68.9 4.4 Time to Sell Index 45.4 29.1 40.4 52.1 62.5 66.0 3.5
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
19%
80% 70% 51% 43% 16%
14%
43%
40% 6%
14%
46%
38%
0%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell Decreased Increased Remained the same
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 25
Our Take:
Traffic remained in-line with agents expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 53 from 47 in February. Agents cited strong demand from investors, along with very limited inventories for traffic levels in March.
20
10 0
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Home prices improved further in March, as our price index came in at 82 from 74 in February.
Agents indicated that inventories and the time to sell both declined, though the rate of decline decelerated in March. Nevertheless, we think these are indications of continued urgency and a positive for future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 36.8 42.3 35.7 34.6 47.1 52.9 5.9 Home Price Index 73.7 75.0 80.0 73.1 73.5 82.4 8.8 Incentive Index 42.1 57.1 40.0 53.8 47.1 38.2 (8.8) Home Listings Index 81.6 75.0 86.7 73.1 82.4 67.6 (14.7) Time to Sell Index 73.7 67.9 83.3 69.2 79.4 67.6 (11.8)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 65% 35% 65% 41% 29% 0% Home Prices 12% Time to Sell Decreased
24%
29%
47%
6%
Incentives
47%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Increased
March 13 Slide 26
60
50 40 30 20
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained above expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 57 from 63 in February. Agents highlighted better confidence in the economy, with the threat of rising interest rates adding to urgency and demand.
10 0
Jul-11 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Home prices increased in March, as our home price index came in at 68 from 54 in February.
Inventories and the time to sell both fell in March. We think this is a positive indication that prices are likely to rise again in the coming months, especially as we enter the heart of the spring selling season.
Buyer Traffic Index 38.0 33.3 54.5 63.9 63.0 57.1 (5.9) Home Price Index 46.0 38.1 47.7 47.2 54.3 67.9 13.5 Incentive Index 52.3 47.5 57.9 70.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 Home Listings Index 64.0 68.4 77.3 86.1 77.3 73.1 (4.2) Time to Sell Index 68.0 54.8 63.6 63.9 69.6 88.5 18.9
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
21%
36%
43%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100%
64% 36% 0% Home Prices 0% 0% 0% Time to Sell Decreased 23%
77%
Incentives
Increased
March 13 Slide 27
Phoenix, AZ Market Improving but Rising too Quickly For Some Buyers, Creating Slight Hesitation
(11,859 single-family building permits in 2012, 3rd largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Traffic met expectations again in March, as our buyer traffic index came in at 50 from 54 in February. Buyers were said to be interested in the market, but were on stand-by given the intense competition and rapidly rising price environment.
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13
Home prices continued to improve in March, as our home price index came in at 87 from 88 in February.
Inventories fell in March, following months of stabilization and increases, against normal seasonality. The time to sell also declined in March. Decreases in both of these metrics are positive indicators for future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 43.2 48.0 39.6 42.6 53.9 50.0 (3.9) Home Price Index 86.4 82.0 78.3 75.9 87.8 87.1 (0.7) Incentive Index 52.5 45.7 41.7 50.0 56.1 48.3 (7.7) Home Listings Index 33.3 48.0 39.6 46.3 47.3 67.7 20.4 Time to Sell Index 61.4 58.0 39.6 55.6 58.3 72.6 14.2
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 100% 80%
26%
26%
77%
63% 19% 3% Home Prices 20% 23% 16% Time to Sell 61%
60%
40% 20% 0% 17%
There isnt enough good inventory in the low prices ranges for most buyers to remain interested.
Snowbirds are returning to their nests.
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
More than expected
48%
Meets expectations Less than expected
Incentives
Increased
Decreased
March 13 Slide 28
Our Take:
Buyer traffic improved in March, continuing to exceed agents expectations. Our traffic index came in at 75 vs. 63 in February. Agents cited high urgency from low inventories and levels of near panic for moderately priced homes in March.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Home prices continued to improve in March, as our price index increased to 86 from 82 in February.
Home prices are likely to increase further, as inventories and the time to sell both declined in March. These are both positives indications that prices will continue to improve.
Buyer Traffic Index 55.3 50.0 54.2 57.5 63.2 75.0 11.8 Home Price Index 77.8 67.9 75.0 82.5 81.6 85.7 4.1 Incentive Index 47.2 46.4 45.8 47.5 50.0 57.1 7.1 Home Listings Index 72.2 85.7 83.3 82.5 63.2 71.4 8.3 Time to Sell Index 72.2 75.0 83.3 82.5 78.9 89.3 10.3
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
0%
100%
80%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 86% 71% 29% 14% 0% Home Prices 0% Incentives 0% Time to Sell Decreased
79%
50%
50%
60% 40%
20%
0% Increased
21%
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 29
Our Take:
Traffic was above agents expectations in March, as our buyer traffic index improved to 57 from 50 in February. Agents cited rising prices giving way to increased urgency, with low interest rates making decisions easier for buyers.
20
10 0
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Prices were higher in March, as our home price index increased to 79 from 60 in February.
Inventories declined in March, as did the time needed to sell a home. We see these both as positives for future pricing, as low inventories drive additional urgency, funneling buyers to fewer homes on the market.
Buyer Traffic Index 33.3 35.7 40.0 42.9 50.0 57.1 7.1 Home Price Index 66.7 57.1 60.0 50.0 60.0 78.6 18.6 Incentive Index 66.7 50.0 37.5 58.3 50.0 50.0 0.0 Home Listings Index 83.3 71.4 60.0 71.4 50.0 64.3 14.3 Time to Sell Index 83.3 71.4 60.0 57.1 80.0 71.4 (8.6)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
14% 29%
80% 60%
71%
57% 43% 14% 14% 29% 14% Time to Sell 57%
40%
20%
57%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
0%
0%
Home Prices Incentives
Increased
Decreased
Our Take:
Traffic exceeded expectations again in March, as our traffic index came in at 75 from 88. Agents highlighted pent up demand, low interest rates and inventories for the better traffic, with additional demand from first-time buyers.
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Prices continued to increase, as our home price index improved to 83 from 63 in February.
Inventories and the time needed to sell a home declined in March, an indication of urgency in the marketplace, and a positive sign for future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 57.1 57.1 50.0 87.5 87.5 75.0 (12.5) Home Price Index 50.0 57.1 33.3 75.0 62.5 83.3 20.8 Incentive Index 25.0 25.0 50.0 62.5 50.0 66.7 16.7 Home Listings Index 64.3 78.6 50.0 87.5 62.5 75.0 12.5 Time to Sell Index 71.4 71.4 66.7 87.5 87.5 83.3 (4.2)
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
100%
80%
67%
16% 67%
0%
Increased
Incentives
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 31
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained strong in March, as our buyer traffic index increased to 79 from 77 from February. Agents stressed the importance of low inventories and better sentiment in March. Investor demand also remained high, helping absorb inventory and maintain urgency levels. Agents continued to point to broad price improvement, as our price index came in at 100, unchanged from February levels. Prices are likely to continue to improve as our home listings index and time needed to sell pointed to declines in both metrics.
Buyer Traffic Index 67.9 77.3 73.3 64.3 76.9 78.6 1.6 Home Price Index 96.4 100.0 100.0 92.3 100.0 100.0 0.0 Incentive Index 50.0 61.1 50.0 54.5 77.3 66.7 (10.6) Home Listings Index 92.9 86.4 70.0 84.6 84.6 85.7 1.1 Time to Sell Index 82.1 72.7 86.7 69.2 88.5 85.7 (2.7)
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
14%
100% 80% 60%
14%
40%
29% 0%
72%
20% 0%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 32
San Antonio, TX Confidence and Local Strength in Economy Continue to Drive Demand
(5,125 single-family building permits in 2012, 20th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Buyer traffic improved further in March, as our buyer traffic index came in at 75 from 72 in February. Agents credited a strong local economy, the urgency from rising interest rates, and limited inventory for the strong traffic levels in March.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Home prices increased again in March as our price index came in at 83 from 94 in February.
Inventories and the time needed to sell a home both decreased in March. We see this as an indication of continued urgency in the marketplace and a positive indicator for future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 37.5 33.3 43.8 81.8 72.2 75.0 2.8 Home Price Index 68.8 58.3 62.5 77.3 94.4 83.3 (11.1) Incentive Index 42.9 41.7 62.5 40.9 43.8 33.3 (10.4) Home Listings Index 87.5 66.7 75.0 68.2 50.0 58.3 8.3 Time to Sell Index 56.3 50.0 68.8 72.7 61.1 79.2 18.1
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
17%
80% 60%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 75% 67% 33% 17% 75%
16% 67%
40% 20%
8%
17% 0% Incentives
8%
0%
Home Prices Increased
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 33
San Diego, CA Demand Sees Further Improvement, while Pricing Strength Continues into March
(2,198 single-family building permits in 2012, 54th largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Buyer traffic improved further in March, as our index increased to 82 from 71 in February. Agents highlighted that buyers were driven by the threat of higher interest rates, low inventories, and the possibility of missing out on bargains.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Home prices showed continued improvement in March, as our price index came increased to 98 from 95 in February.
We expect prices to continue to improve, as both inventories and the time to sell both declined in March. Agents cited broad declines in inventories, while a greater share of agents noted a reduced time to sell. These are positives future pricing.
Buyer Traffic Index 53.6 65.0 60.0 68.2 71.1 81.8 10.8 Home Price Index 85.7 75.0 76.7 90.9 94.7 97.6 2.9 Incentive Index 53.8 56.3 60.7 60.0 64.7 65.0 0.3 Home Listings Index 92.3 90.0 83.3 81.8 89.5 84.1 (5.4) Time to Sell Index 64.3 80.0 73.3 86.4 92.1 93.2 1.1
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
0%
100%
91% 70%
30%
36%
80% 60%
64%
40%
20% 0%
5% 0% Home Prices
0% Incentives
5% 5%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 34
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained high in March, as our traffic index improved to 81 from 80 in February. Buyers exhibited high levels of urgency in March, as inventories remained tight and confidence in the economy and housing continued to improve.
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Home prices increased further in March, with all agents highlighting better pricing. Our price index came in at 100 from 96 in February.
According to agents, inventories fell further, as did the time to sell. We see this as positive indicators for future pricing power.
Buyer Traffic Index 76.1 67.9 70.0 80.4 80.4 81.3 0.9 Home Price Index 91.3 89.3 89.5 96.3 98.2 100.0 1.8 Incentive Index 57.5 58.3 65.6 58.3 64.6 62.5 (2.1) Home Listings Index 82.6 82.1 97.2 78.8 81.5 72.9 (8.6) Time to Sell Index 76.1 64.3 78.9 77.8 89.3 89.6 0.3
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
4%
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 100% 83% 65%
29%
30%
0% 0% Home Prices
67%
5%
Incentives
4%
13%
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 35
Our Take:
Traffic met expectations again in March, as our traffic index came in at 55 from 50 in February. Agents highlighted that snow birds and retirees showed continued interest, and were motivated by the threat of higher prices and interest rates.
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-12 May-11 May-12 Feb-13
Prices increased further in March, as our home price index came in at 89 from 93 in February.
Inventories and the time to sell both fell in March. We think this is a good sign for pricing, especially if demand improves as we enter the spring selling season.
Buyer Traffic Index 41.7 43.8 62.5 50.0 50.0 55.0 5.0 Home Price Index 72.7 64.3 85.7 92.9 92.9 88.9 (4.0) Incentive Index 40.9 41.7 57.1 42.9 50.0 50.0 0.0 Home Listings Index 68.2 71.4 78.6 92.9 64.3 83.3 19.0 Time to Sell Index 60.0 71.4 57.1 78.6 64.3 83.3 19.0
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
20%
30%
89%
78%
0%
11%
0%
0%
50%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Home Prices
Increased
Incentives
March 13 Slide 36
Our Take:
Traffic remained above agents expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 65 from 67 in February. Agents noted that urgency remains at a high level, while buyers confidence continues to improve. The threat of higher interest rates also added an incremental layer of demand in March. Home prices increased further in March, as our home price index came in at 90 from 88 in February. Agents continued to highlight broad inventory declines, with the time to sell falling further in March. We see these both as positive indicators of future pricing power.
Buyer Traffic Index 68.2 52.3 73.5 69.4 66.7 65.0 (1.7) Home Price Index 86.4 69.0 86.7 83.3 88.1 90.0 1.9 Incentive Index 47.4 55.3 63.3 55.9 65.8 65.8 0.0 Home Listings Index 81.8 85.0 93.3 73.5 85.7 85.0 (0.7) Time to Sell Index 84.1 71.1 83.3 83.3 83.3 87.5 4.2
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
<50 - Below Expectations; =50 - Meets Expectations; >50 - Exceeds Expectations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
10%
100%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 80% 47% 37% 80%
40%
80%
60% 40% 20%
20%
0% Home Prices
50%
16% Incentives
5%
15%
0%
Increased
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 37
St. Louis, MO Favorable Affordability and Better Confidence Keys to Traffic Levels in March
(4,238 single-family building permits in 2012, 25th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations, as our traffic index came in at 64 from 75 in February. Buyers were said to be more confident about the economy and the housing market in March.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Home prices increased further in March, as our home price index came in at 79 from 67 in February.
Agents indicated that inventory levels continued to increase in March, in-line with typical seasonality. The time to sell declined, which we think is a positive for pricing, offsetting the potential negative effects of higher listings as demand remains strong.
Buyer Traffic Index 41.7 27.8 43.8 50.0 75.0 64.3 (10.7) Home Price Index 50.0 38.9 56.3 60.0 66.7 78.6 11.9 Incentive Index 33.3 25.0 43.8 75.0 50.0 28.6 (21.4) Home Listings Index 41.7 66.7 62.5 50.0 41.7 28.6 (13.1) Time to Sell Index 33.3 16.7 62.5 62.5 60.0 78.6 18.6
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
29%
57%
14%
40%
20%
0% Increased
14% 14%
0% 0%
Home Prices
Incentives
Time to Sell
Decreased
Meets expectations
Tampa, FL Inventory does not Appeal to Buyers and Traffic Slips, though Investors still Active
(5,885 single-family building permits in 2012, 13th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Buyer traffic slipped in March, coming in to meet expectations after exceeding levels in February, as our traffic index came in at 52 from 67 in February. Agents indicated that while demand remained strong (especially from investors), some buyers were turned off by the lack of attractive inventory. Prices continued to increase in March, as our traffic index improved to 88 from 75. Agents suggested that inventories fell further, as did the time to sell. These are both positives for future pricing power and a good indication of urgency in the market.
Buyer Traffic Index 42.5 40.0 39.5 53.3 66.7 52.4 (14.3) Home Price Index 80.0 67.5 73.5 83.3 75.0 88.1 13.1 Incentive Index 44.1 44.7 46.7 53.3 50.0 50.0 0.0 Home Listings Index 82.5 72.5 87.5 63.3 77.8 71.4 (6.3) Time to Sell Index 72.5 75.0 70.6 66.7 61.1 71.4 10.3
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Mar-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
19%
24%
76%
62% 29% 14% Time to Sell Decreased
60%
40% 20% 0%
57%
24%
0% Home Prices
19%
19%
57%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Incentives
Increased
March 13 Slide 39
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index improved to 65 from 36 in February, pointing to traffic ahead of agents expectations. Agents credited lower inventories, favorable affordability, and increased buyer urgency for traffic in March.
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Home prices continued to increase, as our price index improved to 85 from 82 in February.
Inventories and the time to sell both decreased in March. This is a positive for continued urgency in the market, which we think can support future pricing power, especially as we enter the spring selling season.
Buyer Traffic Index 50.0 50.0 55.0 50.0 36.4 65.0 28.6 Home Price Index 65.0 65.0 75.0 71.4 81.8 85.0 3.2 Incentive Index 70.0 65.0 50.0 46.4 31.8 38.9 7.1 Home Listings Index 85.0 65.0 55.0 53.6 54.5 65.0 10.5 Time to Sell Index 85.0 65.0 65.0 71.4 54.5 75.0 20.5
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 100% 80% 60% 40% 78%
30%
70%
30% 0% Home Prices
60% 22%
0% Incentives 30% 10% Time to Sell Decreased
60% 10%
20%
0% Increased
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 40
Virginia Beach, VA Low Inventories and Better Confidence Drive Buyers to Act
(3,544 single-family building permits in 2012, 31st largest market in the country)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Our Take:
Our traffic index came in at 79 in March from 64 in February, coming in above agents expectations for the third consecutive month. Agents credited low inventories and a sense of confidence that the market has improved for traffic levels.
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Prices were higher in March, as our price index came in at 86 from 55 in February.
Prices have now seen two consecutive months of improvement. We note that levels have remain uneven, but with inventories and the time to sell declining, we would expect to see prices improve in the coming months.
Buyer Traffic Index 60.0 57.1 37.5 70.0 63.6 78.6 14.9 Home Price Index 30.0 57.1 50.0 40.0 54.5 85.7 31.2 Incentive Index 50.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 45.5 57.1 11.7 Home Listings Index 70.0 71.4 75.0 80.0 68.2 64.3 (3.9) Time to Sell Index 50.0 57.1 87.5 70.0 68.2 78.6 10.4
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
Feb-13
Mar-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
0%
100%
86%
43%
57%
80%
60%
40% 20% 0%
Home Prices
Meets expectations
Increased
March 13 Slide 41
Washington, D.C. Urgency Remains High, with Inventories Declining and Rates Potentially Increasing
(10,970 single-family building permits in 2012, 4th largest market in the country)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Feb-12 Buyer Traffic Index
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index came in at 63 from 69 in February, slightly lower, but still exceeding agents expectations. Agents indicated that low inventories and interest rates kept buyer urgency high in March, driving traffic.
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Our home price index came in at 84 from 93 in February, pointing to higher prices over the past month.
We expect prices to continue to improve, as our home listings and time to sell indexes both fell in March. We think this is a sign of strong urgency in the market.
Buyer Traffic Index 52.2 50.0 48.2 63.8 69.0 63.0 (6.0) Home Price Index 65.2 66.7 70.7 78.9 92.9 84.1 (8.8) Incentive Index 43.2 42.6 50.0 45.8 55.0 57.1 2.1 Home Listings Index 58.7 73.3 79.3 73.1 72.7 65.9 (6.8) Time to Sell Index 54.5 53.3 60.7 73.1 83.3 81.8 (1.5)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
May-11
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
22%
80%
60%
68%
57% 32% 14% 0% Home Prices Incentives
68%
48%
40% 20%
29% 5%
27%
30%
0%
Increased
Meets expectations
March 13 Slide 42
Our Take:
Buyer traffic was above agents expectations in March, as our traffic index came in at 60 from 70 in February. Agents noted that better confidence, great affordability, and slightly looser lending standards drove traffic in March.
Jul-11
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
Agents indicated that prices were lower in March, as our price index came in at 40 from 60 in February.
Inventory levels were higher in March, which we think partially drove the small dent in March pricing. However, with demand still strong and a lower time to sell in March, we expect prices to continue to improve.
Buyer Traffic Index 25.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 70.0 60.0 (10.0) Home Price Index 50.0 42.9 25.0 66.7 60.0 40.0 (20.0) Incentive Index 66.7 50.0 62.5 50.0 50.0 40.0 (10.0) Home Listings Index 50.0 35.7 75.0 50.0 62.5 20.0 (42.5) Time to Sell Index 16.7 21.4 25.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 20.0
60
50 40 30 20
10 0
Jul-11 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jan-13
<50 - Lower than Prior Month; =50 - Flat vs Prior Month; >50 - Higher than Prior Month
0% 20%
100% 80%
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days... 80% 80% 80%
60%
40% 20% 0% 0% Home Prices
20%
20%
0% Incentives 0%
20%
80%
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
Increased
Appendix:
March 13 Slide 44
Rank 1 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 12
Ticker TOL DHI SPF PHM MTH LEN RYL BZH HOV NVR MDC KBH
Company Name Toll Brothers D.R. Horton Standard Pacific Corp. Pulte Group Meritage Homes Lennar Corp. Ryland Group Beazer Homes Hovnanian Enterprises NVR, Inc. MDC Holdings KB Home
Net Recommendation 35% 25% 21% 20% 18% 15% 15% 7% 7% 6% 4% (9%)
Survey Methodology
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In February, we received responses from 850 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend. 1) Are traffic levels in-line with, above, or below your expectations for this tim e of year? (Because of seasonality to traffic trends generally more traffic in Spring and less in Fall/Winter we ask about traffic relative to the expectations for this time of year rather than how traffic compared to the prior month). A traffic index above 50 means that traffic was above the expectations of agents, a traffic index of 50 means that traffic was in-line with expectations, and a traffic index below 50 means that traffic was below expectations. 2) Have prices rem ained the sam e, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? A price index above 50 indicates that prices increased over the past 30 days, a price index of 50 indicates that prices were flat, and a price index below 50 indicates that prices decreased. 3) Have incentives rem ained the sam e, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? An incentive index above 50 indicates that incentives decreased over the past 30 days, an incentive index of 50 indicates that incentives were unchanged, and an incentive index below 50 indicates that incentives increased. 4) Do you see the sam e, m ore, or fewer, listings as com pared with 30 days ago? An inventory (listings) index above 50 indicates that the inventory of homes for sale decreased over the past 30 days, an inventory index of 50 indicates that inventories were unchanged, and an inventory index below 50 indicates that inventories increased. 5) Does it take the sam e, m ore, or less tim e to sell a house? A time to sell index above 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home decreased over the past 30 days, a time to sell index of 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home was unchanged, and a time to sell index below 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home increased.
Source: Credit Suisse
March 13 Slide 52
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and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Daniel Oppenheim, CFA, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
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March 13 Slide 54
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March 13 Slide 55