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Contents
Opening Comments Automotive Production in Russia The Passenger Car Market The Bus Market The Truck Market Russia Within the Global Automotive Market Foreign Brands Produced in Russia Foreign Car Sales Consumer Trends & Prospects Government Reforms Ernst & Youngs Involvment in the Automotive Industry Solutions for the Issues that Matter Global Automotive Center Contacts in Russia 2 3 3 6 7 8 11 14 18 20 24 24 26 28
O P E N I NG C OMMENTS
Opening Comments
Russia belongs to the fastest growing emerging automotive markets. While demand for quality new vehicles in the country continues to surpass optimistic forecasts, domestic manufacturers are heading towards saturation of production capacity. But car consumers are more selective and price sensitive than ever. Attractive automotive credit conditions, competitive warranty packages, and comfortable after sales service now belong to the basic toolset of any foreign car dealer striving for success throughout the country. In this report we present key market indicators gathered over the last three years. This is just a glimpse of what we can do for you while you consider market entry or expansion of business activities in Russia. We hope you find the following information insightful, and welcome you to share your most challenging questions on this exciting business environment with us.
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
18.0%
24.4%
29.2%
19.1%
55.4% 12.3%
63.1%
Source: ASM Holding, Autoreview, Autoizvestia, Ernst & Young estimates * Includes production by foreign legal entities, joint ventures, and production by Russian entities with foreign assembly licenes
1 Includes
overall import and domestic production figures. In 2004, approximately 110,000 cars produced in Russia were exported to other emerging markets.
A U TOM O T I V E P RO D U C T I ON I N R US S I A
Despite strong growth in new car imports, Russias car production in 2004 rose almost 10 percent compared to the previous year. Taken on its own, production by Russian manufacturers rose 2.1 percent to over 976,000 units2. Currently, Russias automotive production capacity runs at approximately 90 percent of overall production capacity.
Russian car prices soared by 15 percent on average in 2004, matching base prices of several of the foreign models sold in Russia, some of which are now produced in the country.
AvtoVAZ Togliatti IZH-Avto Izhevsk GAZ Nizhny Novgorod GM-AvtoVAZ Togliatti KamAZ Naberezhny Chelny UAZ Ulyanovsk TagAZ Taganrog Ford Motor Co. Vsevolozhsk Avtotor Kaliningrad Others TOTAL Source: ASM Holding
2 Does
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
1,000,000
985,284 835,104 839,487
1994
797,924
800,000
1995
1996
867,693
1997
1998
1999
954,381
2000
968,092
2001
2002
980,061
2003
2004
1,103,852
A U TOM O T I V E P RO D U C T I ON I N R US S I A
GAZ Nizhny Novgorod UAZ Ulyanovsk PAZ Pavlovo KAvZ Kurgan LiAZ Likino NefAZ Neftekamsk RUSIKAR (Tushino-Avto) Moscow Scania-Peter Saint Petersburg GolAZ Golitsino Others TOTAL Source: ASM Holding *Includes production of minibuses
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
R US S I A W I T H I N T H E G LO B A L A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
GNI per Capita (US$) vs. Passenger Cars (per 1,000 people)
40,000
USA
35,000
Denmark
30,000
UK
10,000
Mexico
5,000
China
Argentina
Hungary
Poland
Turkey
Brasil
0 0
Russia
150 200
Slovakia Moscow
India
50
100
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Passenger Cars (per 1,000 people) Source: World Bank, The Little Green Book 2004, Atlas Method, Ernst & Young estimates
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
While international suppliers learn how to adapt to the needs of smaller markets in order to remain competitive within the global automotive environment, Russian suppliers must improve quality and productivity, and adapt to the needs of those foreign OEMs with current or planned manufacturing activities in Russia. This context raises the possibility of potential cooperation agreements in Russias automotive industry.
* Production in millions Source: OE Industry Review 2004, J.D. Power and Associates
R US S I A W I T H I N T H E G LO B A L A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Source: company's own data, Ernst & Young * As of January 1, 2005 all Daewoo cars exported by GM-Daewoo are branded as Chevrolet. The Daewoo brand name is allowed to be used only in South Korea, Poland, Romania, and Uzbekistan.
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T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
AVTOTOR
Company Profile Established: 1997 Production capacity: 60,000 (2 plants) Type of investment: 100% brownfield Planned production: BMW 3-Series (E-90) Rio Sportage Magentis Carnival K2700 II/ 3000S/ 3600 II* BMW 5-Series (E-60) 3-Series (E-46) 7-Series (E-65)* Chevrolet Tahoe Trail Blazer HUMMER H2 Total production * Production cancelled 2004 122 122 14,648 2004 2004 451 269 720 2003 1999 2004 1,620 714 115 2,449 Model Kia 2000 1998 2001 2000 2003 5,646 2,489 1,905 995 123 11,357 Production Begin Production in 2004
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F OR E I G N B R A N D S P RO D U C E D I N R US S I A
GM-AvtoVAZ
Company Profile Established: 2001 Location: Samara Production capacity: 100,000 Type of investment: JV greenfield Niva Viva Total production Model Production Begin Chevrolet 2002 2004 Production in 2004 55,150 288 55,438
IVECO-UralAz
Company Profile Established: 1994 Location: Chelyabinsk region Production capacity: 3,000 Type of investment: JV Total production 92 IVECO-Ural-6329 Model Production Begin Iveco 1997 Production in 2004 92
IZH-Avto
Company Profile Established: 2003 Location: Izhevsk Production capacity: 60,000 Type of investment: 100% brownfield Total production 592 Spectra Model Kia 2004 592 Production Begin Production in 2004
12
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Scania-Peter
Company Profile Established: 2000 Location: Saint Petersburg Production capacity: 200 Type of investment: 100% greenfield Citybus OmniLink Intercity OmniLine Total production Model Production Begin Scania 2002 2004 Production in 2004 145 1 146
ScanTat Alabuga
Company Profile Established: 2000 Location: Elabuga (Tatarstan) Production capacity: < 500 Type of investment: JV brownfield Total production 25 Bars Model Production Begin Scania 2000 Production in 2004 25
TagAZ
Company Profile Established: 1997 Location: Taganrog Production capacity: 120,000 Type of investment: 100% brownfield Planned production: Hyundai Porter Total production 27,368 Accent Sonata Model Production Begin Hyundai 2001 2004 Production in 2004 20,777 6,591
Volvo-Vostok
Company Profile Established: 2003 Location: Zelenograd Production capacity: < 500 Type of investment: JV FM12 FH Total production Model Production Begin Volvo 2003 n.a. Production in 2004 220 n.a. 220
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F OR E I G N C A R S A L E S
14
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Foreign car sales soared to almost 340,000 units in Russia in 2004, up 72.2 percent year on year. Russias relatively low customs duties (25 percent ad valorem) on imported complete built units (CBU) ensure consumer satisfaction, but have not yet prompted other New Car Import by Country 20022004
2004
1.6% 2.6% 8.0% 8.6% 37.3% 12.0% 12.8% 13.4% 29.9% 12.0% 3.8%
original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to begin manufacturing activities in the country. And the commitment of further OEMs in Russia would act as a catalyst for the development of the industry.
2003
4.6%
2002
4.3% 8.6% 26.6% 35.8% 15.9%
20.3%
USA Germany
Others
Russia ranks twelfth among the top countries producing vehicles worldwide.
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F OR E I G N C A R S A L E S
Total wholesale price includes all customs payments, excise and offsetable VAT. For this example a new vehicle with CIF value of $ 10,000; 1,600 cc gasoline engine; the country of origin is Japan; Commodity Classification Code 8703 23 was selected. Simulation as of September 1, 2004. Source: State regulatory documents of the respective countries, Ernst & Young
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T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Vsevolozhsk17 St. Petersburg13 Minsk Zelenograd18 Golitsino Kyiv Likino6 Moscow8 Pavlovo12 Nizhny Novgorod11 Ulyanovsk16 Naberezhnye Chelny9 Taganrog14 Togliatti15 Miass7
2
Vsevolozhsk St. Petersburg Minsk Zelenograd Golitsino Likino Moscow Pavlovo Nizhny Novgorod Ulyanovsk Naberezhnye Chelny Taganrog Togliatti Miass Kurgan Elabuga
Kyiv
Izhevsk Neftekamsk
Tbilisi
Astana
Baku
Elabuga1
Izhevsk3 Neftekamsk10
Kurgan5
Tbilisi
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ScanTat Alabuga (city, intercity buses) GolAZ (city, intercity, suburban, tourist buses) IZH-Avto (cars, LCVs) Avtotor (cars, SUVs, 4X4) KAVZ (suburban buses) LiAZ (city, intercity buses) IVECO-UralAZ (trucks), UralAZ (trucks) 8 AMO ZIL (cars, light trucks, trucks), Avtoframos (cars) RUSIKAR (city, intercity, suburban, tourist buses) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Astana
KAMAZ (cars, trucks) NefAZ (all-terrain, city, suburban buses, trucks) GAZ (cars, mini buses, LCVs, trucks) PAZ (city, intercity, suburban buses) Scania-Peter (city, intercity buses) TagAZ (cars, LCVs) AvtoVAZ (cars, SUVs, LCVs) GM-AvtoVAZ (cars, SUVs) 16 UAZ (4X4, LCVs) 17 Ford Motor Co. (cars) 18 Volvo-Vostok (trucks)
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C ON S U M E R T R E N D S & P ROSPECTS
2003
1.6% 5.5% 19.3%
2002
1.6% 5.7% 28.3%
34.2%
Note: the foregoing diagrams illustrate the number of vehicles sold per segment category according to nominal base prices. A vehicle with a base price in a lower price segment may end up in a higher price segment due to the purchase of options that significantly change the vehicles price. Chevy Niva and Viva sales not included. Source: Ernst &Young, based on sales results provided by Autoreview
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T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Purchase of foreign cars (excluding foreign brands produced in Russia) accounted for US$ 7.769 billion in 2004. Average Price per Car (in US$)
2004 Cars produced in Russia Imported new cars 7,800 31,600 2003 5,000 22,500
The average price for foreign cars purchased on the Russian territory has changed as such:
2003/2004 Change in % 56 40
2002/2003 Change in % 22 30
The ability to quickly adapt to the needs of emerging markets is listed among the key challenges of several automotive manufacturers and suppliers. It is a crucial aspect of strengthening global competitiveness in an increasingly tight market while securing manufacturing activities in home countries.
19
G OV E R N M E N T R E FOR M S
Government Reforms
Overview of Recent Reforms in Russia
Below is an overview of major reforms implemented within the last three years. Tax Reform Profit tax legislation: beneficial deductibility rules and nominal rate of 24 percent Personal income tax rate of 13 percent for residents3 Standard VAT rate of 18 percent. Leveling down to 13 or 16 percent In discussion Regional tax exemptions are possible (Kursk, Leningrad region, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod) Reduction of profit tax rate from 24 percent to 20 percent In discussion Restriction of profit tax benefits provided by local authorities (ensures compliance with local rules and regulations from day one) Reform of payroll taxes
resident must be present in Russia for at least 183 days a calendar year * Since January 2005
3A
Legal Reform Improvement of minority shareholder rights. Extension of competence areas at shareholder meetings, as well as improvement of dividend controls, directorship, and financing methods Corporate law: introduction of a new order (One Window principle) for company registration with the local authorities by the Ministry of Taxes and Levies. Interested parties are permitted to obtain all the information about a company from the registering authority Registration also required for an entrepreneur as a physical body The establishment and annulment of a commercial organization has to be permitted by the Antimonopoly Ministry Law on consumer protection: introduction of liability to the vehicle importer New*
20
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Currency control law. Restricted currency operations among residents and non-residents Introduction of a housing code designed to stabilize the legal environment surrounding the real estate sector New* Trade Reform Establishment of a free market space covering the territories of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan Abolishment of licenses required for leasing. A foreign court can be assigned for cross-border-leasing contracts. Leasing payments can be made in foreign currency
* Since January 2005
Liberalization of the capital market: free convertibility of the ruble by the year 2007 Liberalization of access by foreign insurers to the Russian market Banking and Finance Reform Implementation of a deposit insurance system to secure the stability of the banking sector and the rights of individual depositors New* Tightening of anti-laundering legislation to provide more transparency in payment processes New* Implementation of an institution for tracking the credit records of borrowers New*
21
G OV E R N M E N T R E FOR M S
Land Reform Possibility for foreigners to purchase land in Russia (with the exception of certain classes of land, i.e., agricultural land and areas near military bases, etc.) Russian regions now permitted to decide some questions concerning land located within their territories Introduction of several measures on residential and town planning codes, and land transfer New* Customs Duties Reform New Russian Customs Code (Since January 1, 2004). Introduced simplified procedures for importers Customs clearance fee based on the customs value of the imported goods New* Customs tariff groups on automotive parts at 5 percent, 10 percent, 15 percent, and 20 percent Introduction of a flat import tariff on automotive parts at between 3 percent and 5 percent ad valorem In discussion Introduction of pre-shipment inspection In discussion
22
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Introduction of a list describing documents to be included in customs declarations Declaration review period reduced from 10 days to 3 days (delays must be explained by authorities) Specific simplified procedures established for certain categories of importers (Green Channel) Customs authorities empowered to ensure protection of intellectual property Introduction of optional means for customs payments: bank guarantee, lien, or appointment of third person New options for legal action against the customs authorities Reduction of customs check points throughout the country as an effort to counter gray imports and corruption
Import Increased import customs duties on used cars, especially those over seven years of age Export No export customs duties currently apply to automotive industry products
Other Duty Reduction Programs In-kind contributions and fixed assets imported as in-kind contributions to the charter capital of a company with foreign investments are free from customs duties and VAT Deferral of customs payments up to 34 months with respect to fixed assets owned by a foreign leasing company and rented and imported by a Russian legal entity. This deferral is interest free and based on the step-bystep application of customs regimes for temporary import and release into free circulation
Key to Abbreviations CBU: Complete Built Unit CKD: Complete Knocked Down JV: Joint Venture LCV: Light Commercial Vehicle OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer SKD: Semi-Knocked Down
The obtaining of customs and tax privileges is a rather complex procedure requiring careful planning and preparations.
23
How can we best take advantage of the Russian tax system? What is the involvement of our competitors?
24
T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Is the partner we are targeting the right choice for us? Does he have the right permits and licenses for our business?
How can we get a "head start" while integrating companies, people, processes, and technologies?
25
Argentina
Benjamin Harriague Tel.: 54 (11) 4318-1520
France
Gilles Puissochet Tel.: 33 (1) 55-61-09-63 Marc Stoessel Tel.: 33 (1) 46-93-66-26
Australia
Sean Balding Tel.: 61 (3) 9288-8535
Germany Belgium
Rudi Braes Tel.: 32 (03) 270-12 35 Peter Fuss Tel.: 49 (6196) 996-27446 Stefan Schulze Tel.: 49 (6196) 996-28002
Brazil
Luiz Frazao Tel.: 55 (11) 3523-5212
Italy
Salvatore Florena Tel.: 39 (06) 3247515-653 Luigi Ragusa Tel.: 39 (02) 80669-712
Canada Operations
Gerard Langlais Global IP (US) Tel.: 1 (401) 457-3772 Stefan Schulze European Automotive (Germany) Tel.: 49 (6196) 996 28002 Dana Tunks Tel.: 1 (416) 941-1762
China
Clive Saunderson Tel.: 86 (10) 8518-8324 Anthony Wu Tel.: 852 2846-9866
Japan
Yoshinobu Shimizu Tel.: 81 (3) 3503-1122
Malaysia
Habib Abdul Tel.: 60 (3) 2087-4102
Denmark
Ole Neerup Tel.: 45 3587-2503
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T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
Mexico
Fausto Sandoval Tel.: 52 (555) 283-1471
Spain
Jordi Olle Palou Tel.: 34 933-663-704
United Kingdom
Steven Blackman Tel.: 44 [0] 20 7951-2918 Jock Lennox Tel.: 44 [0] 20 7951-0374
Netherlands
Warmolt Prins Tel.: 31 (40) 260-2210
Sweden
Jan Birgerson Tel.: 46 58-286-3343 Sven-Arne Gardh Tel.: 46 31-63-78-43
US Norway
Rolf Berge Tel.: 47 24-00-23-56 Michael Hanley Tel.: 1 (248) 457-3914 Gerard Langlais Tel.: 1 (401) 457-3772
Switzerland Singapore
Shyan Yan Ho Tel.: 65 6428 7261 Yves Vontobel Tel.: 41 (58) 286-3346
Venezuela Taiwan
Charles Lai Tel.: 886 (2) 2720-4000 Jesus Figueroa Tel.: 58 (241) 823-79-59
South Korea
Tae-Ho Hong Tel.: 82 (2) 3787-6690
27
Contacts in Russia
Emmanuel Quidet Partner, Audit Head of Industrial Products Tel.: 7 (095) 938-6659 E-mail: Emmanuel.Quidet@ru.ey.com Reece Jenkins Partner, Corporate Tax Tel.: 7 (095) 705-9736 E-mail: Reece.Jenkins@ru.ey.com Paul Murphy Partner, Transaction Advisory Services Tel.: 7 (095) 705-9708 E-mail: Paul.Murphy@ru.ey.com Dmitry Tetiouchev Senior Manager, Legal Tel.: 7 (095) 755-9691 E-mail: Dmitry.Tetiouchev@ru.eylaw.com Jean-Francois Tremblay Manager, Automotive Segment Leader Tel.: 7 (095) 755-9692 E-mail: Jean-Francois.Tremblay@ru.ey.com Oleg V. Lukianchikov Analyst, Center for Business Knowledge (CBK), Industrial Products Group Tel.: 7 (095) 705-9700 E-mail: Oleg.Lukianchikov@ru.ey.com
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T H E R US S I A N A U TOM O T I V E M A R K E T
The foregoing does not constitute formal advice. Ernst & Young does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and shall not be liable in any manner for any error or omission of the results obtained from use of this material.
No part of this report may be reproduced or used in any form (graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, typing or information storage and retrieval systems) without the permission of the copyright holder Ernst & Young (CIS) Limited. For permission, please contact the Automotive Group at Ernst & Young, Moscow. 29
Russia
Moscow Sadovnicheskaya Nab., 77, bld. 1 Moscow, 115035 Tel.: 7 (095) 705-9700 7 (095) 755-9700 Fax: 7 (095) 755-9701 St. Petersburg White Nights House Business Center Malaya Morskaya Street, 23A St. Petersburg, 190000 Tel.: 7 (812) 103-7800 Fax: 7 (812) 103-7810 Novosibirsk Inskaya Street 54, 2nd floor Novosibirsk, 630102 Tel.: 7 (3832) 11-9007 Fax: 7 (3832) 11-9008 Ekaterinburg World Trade Center Kuibyshev Street, 44 Ekaterinburg, 620026 Tel.: 7 (343) 379-3510 Fax: 7 (343) 379-3511 Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Prospect Mira, 149 Office 103 Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693007 Tel.: 7 (4242) 49-9090 Fax: 7 (4242) 49-9411
Azerbaijan
Baku Hyatt International Center Hyatt Tower III Izmir Street, 1033 Baku, AZ1065 Tel.: 994 (12) 490-7020 Fax: 994 (12) 490-7017
Kazakhstan
Almaty Furmanov Street, 240 G Almaty, 050059 Tel.: 7 (3272) 58-5960 Fax: 7 (3272) 58-5961 Astana Hotel Okan InterContinental Astana 7th floor, office 711 Abai Street, 113 Astana, 010000 Tel.: 7 (3172) 58-0400 Fax: 7 (3172) 58-0410 Atyrau Satpaev Street, 19 Office 305 Atyrau, 060011 Tel.: 7 (3122) 99-6099 Fax: 7 (3122) 99-6097
Belarus
Minsk Voronyanskogo Street, 7A Office 709 Minsk, 220039 Tel.: 375 (17) 228-1221 Fax: 375 (17) 228-1222
Georgia
Tbilisi Leselidze Street, 44 Tbilisi, 0105 Tel.: 995 (32) 75-1065 Fax: 995 (32) 75-1066
Ukraine
Kyiv Khreshchatyk Street, 19A Kyiv, 01001 Tel.: 380 (44) 490-3000 Fax: 380 (44) 490-3030
Uzbekistan
Tashkent Inconel Business Center 3rd floor Pushkin Street, 75 Tashkent, 700000 Tel.: 998 (71) 120-6482 Fax: 998 (71) 120-6483
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