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t
t
t
y
t
y
t
y
t
y
, may be written as
1 1 2 1 1
) (1
+ + + =
t t - t - t t
y y y
has MMSE forecast at time
N computed as;
> +
= +
= + +
=
3 ) 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
2 ) 1 ( ) 1 (
1 ) 1 (
) (
1 1
1 1
1 1 1 1
i i | i |
i | |
i c | | |
i
N N
N N
N N N
N
y y
y y
y y
y
Where use is made of the parameter estimates of
1 1
u |
and the observed residual
N
c
, see
(Chatfield, 2000) for more detailed discussions. By applications of the procedures discussed above, we
computed one-step ahead forecasts for the fitted mode, i.e. ARIMA (3,2,1). These forecasts and their
95% confidence interval i.e. Lower confidence limit (LCL) and upper confident limit (ULC) for 10
years (i.e. 2010 2019) are summarized in Table 2, while Figure 5 depicts the observed and forecast
plots of electricity generation in Nigeria.
Table 2: Forecasted values with the Fitted Models
YEARS LCL FORECAST UCL
2010 1451.55 2423.91 3825
2011 1711.87 3088.22 5175
2012 1548.03 2847.73 4843
2013 1230.00 2308.77 3987
2014 1171.22 2387.21 4381
2015 1206.43 2629.10 5061
2016 1144.15 2591.98 5127
2017 1012.28 2373.3 4807
2018 937.91 2314.77 4854
2019 905.74 2358.66 5125
Figure 5: The plot of the observed and forecast value of Electricity generation in Nigeria
36 S. O. Adams, R. O. Akano and O. J . Asemota
The result presented above indicates that the average electricity generation in Nigeria will
decrease in the long run, expect for the year 2011, where a slight increment is noticed.
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
The epileptic nature of electricity generation in Nigeria has become unbearable to most Nigerians,
especially in the big cities. It has posed a constant threat to the growth of the countrys economy.
Furthermore, the present leadership as well as the incoming Government needs to take the issue of
electricity generations seriously.
Forecasting the amount in megawatt the electricity generation can help the Government to take
effective measure to handle any unexpected situation. This study is among the few in Nigeria on this
area.
The paper examined the appropriate model that fits the aggregate electricity generated in
Nigeria between 1970 and 2009. It was discovered that ARIMA (3,2,1) is the most suitable model for
the series with the Normalized Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) of 13.906, stationary R
2
=0.69 and
Maximum likelihood estimate of 411.55 and the Ljung-Box test (Q
14
=6.404 and p>.10) was also
estimated. The ARIMA model revealed that the average electricity generation in Nigeria will reduce
further, with only a slight increment of about 3088.22 megawatt this year, (i.e. 2011).
Although a little increment is forecasted, in year 2011, the predicted megawatt is still not
adequate for a population of over 150 million.
We therefore recommend that Government should as a matter of urgency hasten the
privatization process so that more electricity can be generated given the available numerous natural
resources in the country.
To date, there is no agreement on the actual figure expended in the energy sector from 1999 to
2007 this in itself is very worrisome, in the meantime, we urge the National Assembly to step up its
oversight functions so as to find answers to the whereabouts of the $16 billion that the last
administration claimed to have invested in the power sector and move the nation forward by ensuring
that recent promises by the current administration remain a marked difference from previously failed
promises.
References
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model, Manuscript Submitted for Publication.
[2] Ayodele A.S. (1998) Energy Crises in Nigeria: The Case of Electric Energy Market in
Bullion, 22 (4), pp. 19-23
[3] Brockwell, P.J . and Davis, R.A. (1996) (Introduction to Time series and forecasting Springer,
New York. Section 3.3 and 8.3
[4] Central Bank of Nigeria (2008) Statistical Bulletin, 14(2)
[5] Central Bank of Nigeria (1999), Annual Report and Statement of Account. Dec, pp 57 - 58,
129.Nigeria.
[6] Chatfield, C. (2000). Time-Series Forecasting, Chapman & Hall/ CRC.
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Forecasting Electricity Generation in Nigeria using Univariate Time Series Models 37
[11] Harvey, A.C.(1993) Time Series Models, 2
nd
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4.4.
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131-165.
[17] Olowo, B. (2002): NEPA Meets The Challenge.African Review.April, pp 42. U.K.
[18] Osakwe, E. C. N. (1979): Towards a Comprehensive. Energy Policy for
[19] Nigeria.Proc. Energy Policy Conf., National Policy Development Center.Nigeria.
[20] Osamgbi, I. (2001): Energy. This Day Publications, Vol. 7, No. 2424.pp 27. Nigeria.
[21] Salau, M.O. (1998). Arima Modelling of Nigerias Crude Oil Exports, AMSE, Modelling,
Measurement & Control, Vol. 18, No. 1, 1 20.
[22] Sharma, V. C. and Sharma, A.( 1981). Development of Hydropower in Nigeria.Energy.Vol.
6.pp 475 478. U.K.
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