Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation by Mario Draghi President of the European Central Bank at the Euro Summit Brussels, 14 March 2013
Economic situation
Euro area real GDP
(annual % growth rate)
4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Economic situation
Euro area unemployment
(% of labour force)
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 euroarea(2007) euroarea(2013)
26.4 26.2
20
January2007
January2013
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Latest data: January 2013 (December 2012 for Greece and Estonia). Source: Eurostat.
External imbalances
Current account balance
(% of GDP)
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2000
AT GR
BE IE
DE IT
LU PT
NL Surplus
ES Deficit
FR
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: For improved readability, this and subsequent charts only show the countries listed above and do not include FI, EE, SK, SI, CY, MT. Countries are assigned to "External surplus/deficit" group if they had a current account surplus/deficit in 2007 (the last pre-crisis year). Surplus countries in blue, deficit countries in red. Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
Credit situation
Bank credit to firms
(annual rate of growth)
6 6
euroarea
8 01/2010 07/2010
DE
01/2011
ES
07/2011
FR
01/2012
IT
07/2012 8 01/2013
5
Notes: MFI loans to non-financial corporations adjusted for loan sales and securitisation. 3-month moving average. Latest observation January 2013. Source: ECB.
Fiscal situation
Government deficits (2012)
(% of GDP)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.2 7.5 6.7 6.7
140 Debt>90%
90%>Debt>60%
Deficit>3%
3%>Deficit>2%
1 20 0 0
Note: Budget balance is corrected for capital injections into banks. Source: European Commission 2013 Winter Economic Forecast.
Economic situation
Euro area real GDP
(annual % growth rate)
4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
Netexports
Domesticdemand
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
GDP
4 5 6
Confidence Credit
Competitiveness
8
Productivity
122 140 135
120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100
Note: 1999 = 100. Total economy. Productivity is defined as real GDP per employee. GDP-weighted average by country group. Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
Germany
150 145 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 1999 150
Portugal
150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105
Compensationperemployee Productivity
Compensationperemployee Productivity
Compensationperemployee Productivity
150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
100 1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
France
150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 1999 150
Spain
150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 1999 150
150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 1999
145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
Italy
150
Compensationperemployee Productivity
Compensationperemployee Productivity
145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
Compensationperemployee Productivity
145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Note: 1999 = 100. Total economy. Productivity is defined as real GDP per employee. Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: AMECO.
10
Profitability problems
Business margins
(%, national accounts)
34 34
110 108 106 104 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 2012
Ext.surplusgroup
32 30 28 26 24 22 20
Ext.deficitgroup
32 30 28
102
26
100
24 22 20
98 96 94 2008
2009
2010
2011
Net operating surplus / value added for nonfinancial corporations (4-quarter averages) Latest observation: 2012Q3. Sources: Eurostat, ECB. Right-hand chart: Note: 1999 = 100. GDP-weighted average by country group. Due to data availability, External surplus group does not include Luxembourg, and External deficit group does not include Greece and Ireland. Annual data (smoothed lines). Source: Eurostat.
11
Confidence returning
Corporate bond yields
(percentage points)
8 First3yr LTRO OMTannounced 8
6.5
Returnof confidence
Returnof confidence
13
6
6
11
5.5
5 5
5
4 4
4.5
Mediumgradebonds
3 Jul11 3 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13
Spain Portugal(rhs)
Jun12 Aug12
Italy Ireland(rhs)
Oct12 Dec12
4 Apr12
3 Feb13
Note: EMU all maturities. Monthly data; Latest data: February 2013. Sources: BofA Merril Lynch, Datastream and ECB calculations.
Note: 3-month moving average of monthly data. Latest data: February 2013. Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations.
12
Germany
2 2008 2009 2010
Spain
France
2011
Italy
2 2012 2013
Source: ECB.
13
Fiscal progress
Government deficits in 2009 and 2012
(% of GDP)
12
15.6
12
2009
10
2012
10
2
0.2
Note: Budget balance is corrected for capital injections into banks. Source: European Commission's winter 2013 economic forecast and ESCB.
14
Conclusions
1. Review of product and labour markets to see whether they are compatible with participation in monetary union 2. Reform contracts for countries with pressing competitiveness problems. 3. Full implementation of Single Market legislation
15