Submitted by:

Shailendra Kumar
II sem
Sch. No. 122110105
Department of
Architecture and
Planning
MANIT Bhopal









Submitted to:
Dr. C.K Verma
Department of Mathematics
(Applied Mathematics)
MANIT Bhopal
2013
REPORT ON
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
METHOD
Subject:
Statistics & Demography [UD 122 ]


MAULANA AZAD NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY, BHOPAL
Contents:
1. Introduction:
1.1. What is statistics?
1.2. Why the need for statistics?
1.3. Terminology:
2. Probability tests
3. Laws of probability
4. Binomial probability method
5. General formulae for finding binomial probability
6. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of binomial
distribution
7. Problems on binomial probability distribution
8. Bibliography












1. Introduction:
1.1. What is statistics?
- A branch of mathematics that provides techniques to analyse
whether or not your data is significant (meaningful).
- Statistical applications are based on probability statements.
- Nothing is proved with statistics.
- Statistics are reported.
- Statistics report the probability that similar results would occur if
you repeated the experiment.

1.2. Why the need for statistics?
- Statistics are used to describe sample populations as estimators of
the corresponding population.
- Many times, finding complete information about a population is
costly and time consuming. We can use samples to represent a
population.

1.3. Terminology:
- Variable: It is a continuous data. Data values can be any real
number or Measured data.
- Continuous variables: type of numbers associated with measuring
or weighing; any value in a continuous interval of measurement.
Examples: Weight of students, height of plants, time to flowering
- Discrete variables: type of numbers that are counted or
categorical. Examples: Numbers of boys, girls, insects, plants

- Population: It includes all members of a group. Example: all 9th
grade students in America, Number of 9th grade students at SR, No
absolute number
- Sample: It is used to make inferences about large populations.
Samples are a selection of the population. Example: 6th period
Accelerated Biology
- Probability: It means likelihood. It is a measure or estimation of
how likely it is that something will happen or that a statement is
true.
- Parameters: Quantities that describe a population characteristic.
They are usually unknown and we wish to make statistical
inferences about parameters. Different to perimeters.
- Descriptive Statistics: Quantities and techniques used to describe
a sample characteristic or illustrate the sample data e.g. mean,
standard deviation, box-plot

2. Probability tests
- What to do when you are comparing two samples to each other and
you want to know if there is a significant difference between both
sample populations
- (example the control and the experimental setup)
- How do you know there is a difference
- How large is a difference?
- How do you know the difference was caused by a treatment and
not due to normal sampling variation or sampling bias?

3. Laws of probability:
- The results of one trial of a chance event do not affect the results of
later trials of the same event. p = 0.5 ( a coin always has a 50:50
chance of coming up heads)
- The chance that two or more independent events will occur
together is the product of their changes of occurring separately. (
one outcome has nothing to do with the other)
- The probability that either of two or more mutually exclusive
events will occur is the sum of their probabilities (only one can
happen at a time).

4. Binomial probability method
The binomial probability method offers a simple but very useful model.
A binomial method is characterized by trials which either end in success
(heads) or failure (tails). These are sometimes called Bernoulli trials .
Suppose we have n Bernoulli trials and p is the probability of success on
a trial. Then this is a binomial model if
1. The Bernoulli trials are independent of one another.
2. The probability of success, p, remains the same from trial to trial.
A binomial method is an experiment which satisfies these four
conditions:
1. A fixed number of trials
2. Each trial is independent of the others
3. There are only two outcomes
4. The probability of each outcome remains constant from trial to
trial.
Examples of binomial experiments
- Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur.
- Asking 200 people if they watch ABC news.
- Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.
Examples which aren't binomial experiments
- Rolling a die until a 6 appears (not a fixed number of trials)
- Asking 20 people how old they are (not two outcomes)
- Drawing 5 cards from a deck for a poker hand (done without
replacement, so not independent)

5. General formulae for finding binomial probability



















r n r
r
n
q p c r P

= ) (

q=1-p = probability of failure

p = probability of success r =successes
out of n trials
1 .... ) 2 ( ) 1 ( !
! )! (
!
x n x n nx n
r r n
n
C
r
n
=

=
6. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of binomial
The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomial distribution
are extremely easy to find.









7. Problems on binomial probability distribution
Q1. A coin is tossed four times, what is the probability of
getting.
1. No head
2. Exactly 1 head
3. Exactly 2 heads
4. At least 2 heads
5. At most 2 heads
SOL (i): By formula
Here,
r=0
p= probability of success=1/2
q= probability of failure=1/2
npq
npq
np
=
=
=
o
o

2


n =
number
of trials

Probability
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (











SOL (ii): By formula
Here,
r=1
p= probability of success=1/2
q= probability of failure=1/2














SOL (iii):
By formula
Here,
r=2
p= probability of success=1/2
q= probability of failure=1/2
4
1
)
16
1
(
! 3
! 3 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
(
! 1 )! 1 4 (
! 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
( ) 1 (
3 1
1 4 1
1
4
=
=

=
=

x
C P
16
1
)
2
1
( )
2
1
(
! 0 )! 0 4 (
! 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
( ) 0 (
0 4 0
0 4 0
0
4
=

=
=

C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (









SOL (iv):
By formula
Here,
r=2+3+4
p= probability of success=1/2
q= probability of failure=1/2










8
3
)
16
1
(
! 2 ! 2
! 2 3 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
(
! 2 )! 2 4 (
! 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
( ) 2 (
2 2
2 4 2
2
4
=
=

=
=

x
x x
C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
16
11
)
16
1
(
! 4
! 4
)
16
1
(
! 3
! 3 4
8
3
)
2
1
( )
2
1
(
! 4 )! 4 4 (
! 4
)
2
1
( )
2
1
(
! 3 )! 3 4 (
! 4
8
3
)
2
1
( )
2
1
( )
2
1
( )
2
1
(
8
3
) 4 ( ) 3 ( ) 2 (
0 4 1 3
4 4 4
4
3 4 3
3
4 4
=
+ + =

+ =
+ + = + +

x
C C P P P
SOL (v):
By formula
Here,
r=0+1+2 or 1-(iv)
p= probability of success=1/2
q= probability of failure=1/2






Q2. The mean and the variance of binomial distribution are
4 and 4/3.
i. Find the probability of two success
ii. The probability of more than two success
SOL:
Mean of binomial distribution=np=4
Variance of binomial distribution=npq=4/3
Putting the value of np in variance we get
4xq=4/3
Then q=1/3
So, p=1-q
i.e p=1-1/3
Therefore, p=2/3
And n=4/3pq
i.e n=6
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
16
15
)
16
11
( 1
) ( 1 ) 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 0 (
=
=
= + + iv P P P P

(i)
By formula
Here, r=2,
p= probability of success=2/3,
q= probability of failure=1/3









SOL (ii)
By formula
Here,
r=3+4+5+6
p= probability of success=2/3,
q= probability of failure=1/3





r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
243
20
)
729
4
(
! 2 ! 4
! 4 5 6
)
81
1
)(
9
4
(
! 2 )! 2 6 (
! 6
)
3
1
( )
3
2
( ) 2 (
2 6 2
2
6
=
=

=
=

x
x x
C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
729
592
)
729
64
(
! 6 )! 6 6 (
! 6
)
3
1
)(
243
32
(
! 5 )! 5 6 (
! 6
)
9
1
)(
81
16
(
! 4 )! 4 6 (
! 6
)
27
1
)(
27
8
(
! 3 )! 3 6 (
! 6
)
3
1
( )
3
2
( )
3
1
( )
3
2
( )
3
1
( )
3
2
( )
3
1
( )
3
2
( ) 6 ( ) 5 ( ) 4 ( ) 3 (
6 6 6
6
6 5 6 5
5
6 4 6 4
4
6 3 6 3
3
6
=

=
+ + + = + + +

C C C C P P P P
Q3. A test consists of 10 multiple choice questions with five choices
for each question. As an experiment, you GUESS on each and
every answer without even reading the questions.
What is the probability of getting exactly 6 questions correct on this
test?
SOL:
By formula
Here,
n=10
r=6
p= probability of success=1/5=0.2,
q= probability of failure=4/5=0.8





Q4. When rolling a die 100 times, what is the probability of
rolling a "4" exactly25 times?
SOL:
By formula
Here,
n=100
r=25
p= probability of success=1/6
q= probability of failure=5/6


r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
006 . 0 005505024 . 0
) 4096 . 0 )( 000064 . 0 (
! 6 )! 6 10 (
! 10
) 8 . 0 ( ) 2 . 0 ( ) 6 (
6 10 6
6
10
~ =

=
=

C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (






Q5. At a certain intersection, the light for eastbound traffic
is red for 15 seconds, yellow for 5 seconds, and green for 30
seconds. Find the probability that out of the next eight
eastbound cars that arrive randomly at the light, exactly
three will be stopped by a red light.
SOL:
By formula
Here,
n=8
r=3
p= probability of success=15/50
q= probability of failure=35/50







010 . 0 0098258819 . 0
)
6
5
( )
6
1
(
! 25 )! 25 100 (
! 100
)
6
5
( )
6
1
( ) 25 (
75 25
25 100 25
25
100
~ =

=
=

C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
254 . 0 25412184 . 0
)
50
35
( )
50
15
(
! 3 )! 3 8 (
! 8
)
50
35
( )
50
15
( ) 3 (
5 3
3 8 3
3
8
~ =

=
=

C P
Q6. The manufacturing sector contributes 17% of Canada's
gross domestic product. A customer orders 50 components
from a factory that has 99% quality production rate (99% of
the products are defect-free). Find the probability that:
i. none of the components in the order are defective.
ii. there are at least two defective products in the order.
SOL (i):
By formula
Here,
n=50
r=50
p= probability of success=0.99
q= probability of failure=0.01





SOL(ii):
By formula
Here,
n=50
r=0+1+2+3+48
p= probability of success=0.99
q= probability of failure=0.01


r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
605 . 0
) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 (
! 50 )! 50 50 (
! 50
) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( ) 50 (
0 50
50 50 50
50
50
=

=
=

C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (






Q7. A baseball player comes to bat 4 times in a game. The
chance of a strike-out for this player is 30%. Find all possible
outcomes and their probabilities.
SOL(i):
By formula
Here,
n=4(number times to bat)
r=0, 1, 2, 3,4
p= probability of success=0.3
q= probability of failure=0.7

089 . 0
605 . 0 306 . 0 1
) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( ) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( 1
) 50 ( ) 49 ( 1
) 48 ( ..... ) 0 ( ) 2 (
0 50
50
50 1 49
49
50
=
=
=
=
+ + =
C C
success p success p
success p success p f ailure P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
Q8. A survey indicates that 41% of American women
consider reading as their favourite leisure time activity. You
randomly select four women and ask them if reading is their
favourite leisure-time activity. Find the probability that
i. exactly two of them respond yes
ii. at least two of them respond yes
iii. Fewer than two of them respond yes.
SOL (i):
By formula
Here,
n=4
r=2
p= probability of success=0.49
q= probability of failure=0.51








SOL (ii):
By formula
Here,
n=4
r=2,3,4
p= probability of success=0.49
35109366 . ) 3481 )(. 1681 (. 6
) 3481 )(. 1681 (.
4
24
) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 (
! 2 )! 2 4 (
! 4
) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 2 (
2 4 2
2 4 2
2 4
= =
=

=
=

C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
q= probability of failure=0.51









SOL (iii):
By formula
Here,
n=4
r=0, 1
p= probability of success=0.49
q= probability of failure=0.51








542 . 0
028258 162653 . 351093 .
) 4 ( ) 3 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 (
~
+ + =
+ + = > P P P x P
028258 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 4 (
162653 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 3 (
351093 . ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 2 (
4 4 4
4 4
3 4 3
3 4
2 4 2
2 4
= =
= =
= =

C P
C P
C P
458 . 0
336822 . 121174 ..
) 1 ( ) 0 ( ) 2 (
~
+ =
+ = < P P x P
336822 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 1 (
121174 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 0 (
1 4 1
1 4
0 4 0
0 4
= =
= =

C P
C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
Q9. 65% of American households subscribe to cable TV.
You randomly select six households and ask each if they
subscribe to cable TV. Construct a probability distribution
for the random variable, x. Then graph the distribution.
SOL:
By formula
Here,
n=6
r=0, 1, 2 , 3, 4, 5, 6
p= probability of success=0.65
q= probability of failure=0.35










x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 0.002 0.020 0.095 0.235 0.328 0.244 0.075
075 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 6 (
244 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 5 (
328 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 4 (
235 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 3 (
095 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 2 (
020 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 1 (
002 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 0 (
6 6 6
6 6
5 6 5
5 6
4 6 4
4 6
3 6 3
3 6
2 6 2
2 6
1 6 1
1 6
0 6 0
0 6
= =
= =
= =
= =
= =
= =
= =

C P
C P
C P
C P
C P
C P
C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x)







Q10. A six sided die is rolled 3 times. Find the probability of
rolling exactly one 6.
SOL:
By formula
Here,
n=3
r=1
p= probability of success=1/6
q= probability of failure=5/6











347 . 0
72
25
)
36
25
)(
6
1
( 3
)
6
5
)(
6
1
( 3
)
6
5
( )
6
1
(
! 1 )! 1 3 (
! 3
) 1 (
2
1 3 1
1 3 1
1
3
~ =
=
=

=
=

q p C P
r n r
r
q p C r P
n

= ) (
8. Bibliography
1. https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/independent-
dependent-probability
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
3. http://people.richland.edu/james/lecture/m170/ch06-bin.html
4. http://www.mathwords.com/b/binomial_probability_formula.htm
5. http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/probability_distributions.
html#binodistn
6. http://www.stat.wmich.edu/s160/book/node33.html