WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.

COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

25-Mar-09 BIG BERTHA

In the US, stocks spent virtually the entire session trading with losses as participants moved to take profits following the prior
session's surge. A midsession rebound by financials attempted to help the broader market move into positive territory, but a rekindled
selling effort ultimately caused stocks to close at session lows with a sizable loss, due to a lack of news and data, following a 7% surge.
With financials under pressure, the broader market was left without a clear leader. In turn, all 10 sectors finished lower.
Stabilisation and slight improvements in macro data are bringing some further more confirmation that the Fed and other US
officials are bound to succeed in getting soon the US economy out of its latest deep and scary recession, and that the Great Depression
scenario will have hopefully been avoided. The House price index came out on the upside yesterday, while the Richmond Fed
manufacturing index came out better than expected. No deflation seen through the CPI neither PPI, better Retail Sales, better Existing
and New home sales rebounding, housing inventories lowering (9 months, coming from 11 months last November, an ideal number being
5/6 months), some dropping mortgage rates, and the best to come now with the Fed about to act in its MBS heavy purchases, as well as
its long term Treasury one. Banks are making money back again, while the Housing sector in the US reached a floor level at last, both
being the main reasons of the crisis, increasing chances to see some much better days ahead of us, might be sooner than one imagine
In Europe, March’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI is an encouraging sign, from 36.2 to 37.6 (consensus 36.0), but with the
index close to its record low output looks set to continue to contract in Q1. The rise reflected increases in the manufacturing and services
indices, although the latter rose particularly sharply from 39.2 to 40.1. The index currently points to a less sharp fall than Q4’s 1.5% q/q
decline, which might be a sign that even in Europe, the worst of the downturn is over.
In the UK, not only has RPI inflation failed to fall into negative territory as expected, but Mervyn King has had to write his 5th ever
letter to the Chancellor explaining why CPI inflation is more than 1% above its target. CPI inflation defied expectations by rising in
February from 3.0% to 3.2%. This partly reflected an unexpected rise in food inflation, but core inflation also rose, from 1.3% to 1.6%,
which could suggest that the fall in sterling is working its way through to the high street.
The latest economic fall was due to a huge lack of confidence, and it seems that the US officials managed to bring it gradually
back, so that we might start thinking valorisation again, and no longer redemptions, outflows, bankruptcies, write downs, bad loans,
cheatings (Madoff, Kerviel etc…) mis marking etc… The reverse side of such a new landscape, is that it is full of opportunities out there,
in equities and in real estate businesses for whoever kept his job, and has not been trapped in the latest cash squeeze (gradually being
freed). Fund managers are very much cash invested, and except prompt decisions from hedge funds, most of them are not active at this
end of a quarter, but more concerned about witting reports. Wait until they step into the equities…
The Prechter prediction has been true another time (warned about the October 87 crash 2 weeks before, and 2 months before the top
of the summer 2007) in saying a few weeks ago that a scary upside rally would take place within two weeks. Elliott’s view is always very
efficient whenever there is a trend. And this rally is worth taking a look at, since we are talking about the end of a bear market that started
in March 2000 on the internet bubble burst . The Eurostoxx topped on 5522 that month to visit 1847 in March 2003, to rebound on 4572 in
June 2007, and drop back for a third downside wave on 1765 earlier this month.
Both the Fed and the Bank of England will start to buy domestic Treasuries today / rangy and consolidation day still ahead / the
Eurostoxx gap closure 2176/2193 will be the focus for now
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 53,2 1,3475 97,65 2,70 3,15 -0,43 -2,25 -6,29 -1,62 -1,70 -2,06 -1,10 -2,28 -2,41 -2,04 -2,52 -1,49 US
Perf 1d % -0,73 0,05 0,22 0,17 bp 13 bp 0,19 -1,31 -1,40 -0,38 -1,10 -0,86 -0,15 -1,71 -2,27 -0,73 -1,47 -0,55 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
German IFO (9 gmt) is expected to show further signs of weak sentiment in March regarding the current conditions. The forward looking
component of the IFO may improve, mirroring a similar increase in the Zew measure / minor though as focus US lately
Mortgage Applications (12h gmt) / the highest the better / minor
Durable Orders (12h30 gmt) expected –2.5% from previous –5.2% // ex transport –2% from –2.5% / the recent rebound in the new
orders balance of the ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace at which core durable goods orders are falling is slowing / minor
as the focus remains the latest measures which should impact heavily on the real economy
Treasury Secretary Geithner speaking at a council on foreign relations (13h15 gmt)
Fed Governor Duke testifying on bank regulation before the House Financial Services committee (14h gmt)
New Home Sales (14h gmt) expected 301k from previous 309k / interesting to measure the housing sector stabilisation, if not rebound
Oil inventories (15h35 gmt) / minor at this stage
Cleveland Fed President Pianalto on economic recovery (16h20 gmt)
San Francisco Fed President Yellen on economic policy (17h gmt)
POSITIVE IMPACTS
HOCHTIEF : FY sales €19.1bn (18.2bn exp) / PTP €520m (505m exp) / Dividend €1.40 (vs €1.30 last year) / Order backlog as end of
Dec. WAS €30.9bn vs 32.7bn at end of Sept. / Sees 2009 PTP & net similar to 2008
SCHNEIDER said that, effective at the close of trading Mar. 20, it has entered the S&P Global 100 index.
ENI : Gazprom will buy ENI’s 20% stake in Gazprom Neft for about $4bn under an option that runs out in April (Vedomosti)
SAINSBURY : Q4 LFL sales + 6.2% (+5.5% exp)
VOLKSWAGEN : PORSCHE secured a €10 bn new credit facility, allowing it to extend the volume to €12.5 bn the forthcoming weeks
EDF’s CEO looks set to continue to lead EDF beyond his mandate that ends in November (Les Echos)
CENTRICA was considering raising its offer for Venture Production last night after having its offer rejected (Times)
CREDIT AGR. : Calyon performed in line with 2010 targets in Jan. & Feb. / 2009 will be difficult with cost of risk increase (Calyon’s CEO)
RIO TINTO : The US$19.5 bn investment by Chinalco in Rio Tinto was cleared by Australian antitrust regulators
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM : T-Mobile USA plans to double its high-speed wireless network coverage to reach a potential 200 m wireless
users by the end of 2009 as it looks to catch up with rival services
BANCO POPULAR said it had raised €426m from the issue of preference shares with an annual coupon of 6.75% for the first 5 years
from the issue and a minimum of 4% for subsequent years / The issue is rated A+ by Fitch and A- by S&P’s
BANCO POPOLARE : Q4 NII €604.2m / Net Com. €239.4m (in line) / Impairments €1.36bn / No Div (As exp) / Sees Tier1 pro forma 8%
US BANKS : M. Obama plans to meet Friday with a dozen of the US's top banking chiefs to discuss its plans to shore up the fin. sector
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
SIEMENS has seen substantially tougher times since Jan. (CEO in Handelsblatt) / Siemens would be preparing investors for unpleasant
news, because of slumping demand in its industrial biz + the difficult situation in its medical technology operation (Read across Philips…)
ALSTOM forecast a further drop in orders at its power-plant building unit as clients delay investments, betting that prices will fall (Alstom’s
Head of project execution in Germany)
TUI : FY sales €18.71bn (18.65bn exp) / Adj. ebita €547.5m (579m exp) / Said that market uncertainty does not permit 2009 outlook
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

25-Mar-09 BIG BERTHA

DAIMLER : Moody’s said that share sale to IPIC fails to lift credit concern / Sticks to negative outlook
PUBLICIS : S&P’s cut its outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing a significant deterioration of eco. & advertising conditions worldwide
CSGN & UBS need the help of cantonal banks and consumer lenders to cover gaps in the Swiss corporate loans market (F &Wirtschaft)
ABENGOA is tapping the market for a €440 m project finance loan that will fund the construction of 2 thermo-solar plants in Seville
RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS
Aviva (GBp 22,12222) / B Sky B (GBp
Hochtief / TUI Travel / TUI AG / Inditex / / Sainsbury trading DSM AGM / UK real estate conf at Merrill Lynch / Ciena
Today 8,333333) / Intercontinental Hotel Group
statement / Nizhnekamskneftekhim / A2a / Legal & General AGM / Small and mid cap conference at Deutsche Bank
(GBp 22,44444)
Cimport cimentos / H&M / Kingfisher / Premier Oil /
Geithner testify of rules revamp / Fiat AGM / Vestas
Thursday Salzgitter / Man Group trading statement / Banca Monte dei
Wind AGM / ASML AGM / Givaudan AGM
Paschi di Siena
Friday Wendel / DSM (€ 0.80) Portugla Telekom AGM
ASML (€0.20) / Philips Electronics (€0.70) /
Monday Porsche / Banco Popolare
DSM (€0.80)
Tuesday Fortis / Neopost
TRADING IDEAS
Upside gap to be closed on the Eurostoxx cash 2176/2193 for info
BUY BBVA / BNP / AXA to play gap closure above soon
BUY DPW / L OREAL / EON / ROCHE / ACCOR / AIR FRANCE / LAFARGE on reversal Head & Shoulder
BUY DTE / UNILEVER / PERNOD / THYSSEN / ARCELOR on double bottom possibility

BUY LINDE / SELL AIR LIQUIDE // BUY FTE / SELL TEF // BUY HEWLETT-PACKARD / SELL DELL // BUY EXXON / SELL CHEVRON
BROKER METEOROLOGY
PHILIPS .......................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ...............................................................................................BY ING
ASML............................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ...............................................................................................BY ING
GENERALI ..................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS
TULLOW OIL ...............................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ................................................................................. BY CITIGROUP
EASYJET .....................................RAISED TO BUY FROM SELL ...................................................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
LUFTHANSA ...............................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL ............................................................ BY GOLDMAN SACHS
VIVENDI .......................................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL ............................................................ BY GOLDMAN SACHS
VIVENDI .......................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ............................................................................................. BY RBS
M6 METROPOLE ........................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL ............................................................ BY GOLDMAN SACHS
MERK KGaA ................................RESTARTED BUY ....................................................................................... BY BANK OF AMERICA

PERNOD RICARD .......................CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY ............................................................................................ BY UBS

IBERIA .........................................CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL ................................................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
MEDIASET ..................................CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL ................................................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
THOMAS COOK ..........................CUT TO SELL FROM BUY ............................................................................ BY GOLDMAN SACHS
POPOLARE MILANO...................CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY ............................................................................ BY DEUTSCHE BANK
RIO TINTO ...................................CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD ................................................................................................. BY RBS
ANGLO AMERICAN ....................CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD ................................................................................................. BY RBS
PEUGEOT ...................................CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL ........................................................................................... BY UBS
SHAFTESBURY ...........................CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL ........................................................................................... BY UBS

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

25-Mar-09 BIG BERTHA

CHART OF THE DAY

FHFA House price index
Since 1991

1,5

0,5

-0,5

-1

-1,5

-2

-2,5
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source : Federal Housing Finance Agency

American house price rose 1.7% in January , this is the first increase since February 2008 and the highest monthly growth since 1991.

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
23.50 GMT Japan Merchandise trade balance February - Yen 20,0 billion - Yen 956,9 billion
9.00 GMT Germany IFO business climate March 83 82,2 82,6
9.00 GMT Germany IFO current assessment March 82,5 84,3
9.00 GMT Germany IFO expectations March 81,5 80,9
11.00 GMT United-States MBA mortgage applications March 20 th 21,2%
12.30 GMT United-States Durable goods orders February - 0,5 % -2,5% -4,5%
12.30 GMT United-States Durable goods orders ex transportation February - 0,5 % -2,0% -3,0%
14.00 GMT United-States New home sales February 300 000 309 000
14.00 GMT United-States New home sales MoM February -2,9% MoM -10,2% MoM
17.00 GMT France Total jobseekers February 2 204 500
17.00 GMT United-States Fed's Yellen speaks on U.S. economy policy

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7660,0 3,60% - 12,72% EUR/USD 1,3479 0,04% -3,52%
S&P 500 806,1 3,65% - 10,75% EUR/JPY 131,51 -1,42% 3,69%
Nas daq 1516,5 3,73% - 3,84% USD/JPY 97,57 -1,41% 7,13%
CA C 40 2874,4 3,87% - 10,68% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 4187,4 5,01% - 12,95% Brent $/b 51,5 8,16% 23,18%
Eur os tox x 50 2127,4 5,72% - 13,08% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 178,2 3,65% - 10,16% Gold $/oz 925,5 -1,69% 4,99%
FTSE 100 3911,5 1,54% - 11,79% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8480,0 10,18% - 4,28% Central Banks* 0,25 1,50 0,09
Shanghai Comp 2318,5 5,41% 27,33% Overnight 0,15 0,70 0,09
Sens ex ( India) 9633,3 6,87% - 0,15% 3 Months 0,21 0,66 0,26
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 815,8 5,61% 31,68% 10 Y ears** 2,70 3,15 1,30
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 41475,8 4,97% 10,45% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

25-Mar-09 BIG BERTHA

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW

Watch in the United-States the release of the durable good orders for February due at 12.30 GMT, expected to pursue their
decrease trend led by the global economic downturn and by the credit crunch. Nevertheless the U.S. durable good orders should
recover this summer boost by the revival plan effects.

Watch in the Euro area the release of the IFO business climate for March due at 09.00 GMT. After dropping to its lowest level in
February its seems that the IFO reached a bottom and should remained stable at a very low level in March. Watch in France the
release of the total jobseekers for February due at 17.00 GMT expected to increase as the deepening recession and the weak
domestic and foreign demand is forcing companies to cut jobs increasing the weak demand and breaking the virtuous circle :
investment-employment-consumption./JB

ECONOMY

UNITED-STATES : HOUSE PRICE INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE IN JANUARY

After dropping of 2.1% in November 2008 and 0.2% in December the American house price rose 1.7% in January its highest monthly
growth since 1991. The last monthly increase was dated of February 2008. If we add the U.S. previously owned home sales which
surprisingly climbed in February of 5.1% to reach 4.72 million and the housing starts climbing 22.2% in February we can see the first
slight signs of the rebound of the real estate market.

FRANCE : CONSUMER SPENDING DROPPED MORE THAN EXPECTED IN MARCH

After a drop in December of 0.8% and despite the gloomy economic outlook and the ambient pessimism French consumer spending
had rose 1.7% in January. But the sales period is over and French’s consumption fell 2.0% in February (forecast 1.0%) and 2.0% from
a year ago. It must be said that this February drop is as well led by the rise of 0.4% France’s inflation at the same month. Actually this
weakness of household consumption will last for the next few months but without collapsing. France’s consumer spending should
recover this summer at sales time.

EURO ZONE : THE PMI MANUFACTURING REMAINED AT A VERY WEAK LEVEL IN MARCH
After reaching a lowest in February at 33.5 Europe’s manufacturing PMI remained very weak at 34.0 in March showing that it is too
early to assume that the worst of the downturn is over. The Europe’s PMI services slightly increased from 39.2 in February to 40.1 in
March but remained at a very weak level as well. The PMI composite slightly rose from 36.2 to 37.6 in March which cannot be seen as
a real improvement considering the weakness of the data. Indeed a level below 50 reflect a contraction of the activity. If we quickly
look to the breakdown by countries ,France and German PMI manufacturing slightly rose at respectively 36.3 and 32.4 but remained
both very weak. As the recession is deepening in the euro area we should not see any significant improvement of the PMI before this
summer.

UNITED KINGDOM : CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE TO A HIGHEST FOR 15 YEARS IN FEBRUARY
After dropping every month since October and declining of 0.7% in January, United Kingdom’s inflation rose of 0.9% in February, its
highest level since 1994. Despite the deepening recession generating an offer much higher than the global demand which should
drag prices down, inflation dropped led by the slight rise of energy prices in February. From a year ago consumer price index rose
3.2% after dropping for 4 months in a row. It must be noticed as well that quantitative easing measures put in place by the Bank of
England will increase U.K. inflation in the coming months./JB
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

25-Mar-09 BIG BERTHA

VIXindex: impliedvolatility ontheS&P500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009 26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates : 10-year Treasuryyield 10-year Treasury spreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009 26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009 26/03/2007 26/09/2007 26/03/2008 26/09/2008 26/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg