Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TEL:
EMAIL:
Hongrui Chen
514-632-4518
hongrui.chen@
mail.mcgill.ca
Date:
22-Feb-13
Format
$500.0 Harcode, but flwxible assumption
$500.0 Hardcode, not flexible
$500.0 Pulled from another worksheet
$500.0 Data pull from a Bloomberg, factset, CapIQ
$500.0 Calculated number
About the Year of 2012:
The Fourth quarter report and annual report of 2012 have not been release yet, so I put year
of 2012 into expected
`
Income Statement
(in thousands of Canadian dollars)
For the years ended December 31,
Net product sales
Net sales growth
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Gross profit margin
Actual
2010
2011
2012
2013
$ 78,587.00 $ 85,487.00
8.78%
56380
62,392
22,207
23,095
28.26%
27.02%
95454.17
11.66%
69073.66
26380.51
27.64%
105209.28
10.22%
76459.46
28749.82
27.33%
Expected
2014
2015
2016
2017
116718.63
10.94%
84642.51
32076.11
27.48%
129066.97
10.58%
93697.53
35369.44
27.40%
142953.97
10.76%
103723.46
39230.51
27.44%
158206.52
10.67%
114820.99
43385.53
27.42%
13746
4280
239
-23
18242
3,965
15,711
4,210
282
(41)
20162
2,933
17575.45
5084.58
310.61
-37.77
22932.86
3,448
19371.60
5604.21
342.35
-41.63
25276.53
3,473
21490.76
6217.28
379.80
-46.19
28041.65
4,034
23764.39
6875.05
419.98
-51.08
31008.34
4,361
26321.32
7614.77
465.17
-56.57
34344.69
4,886
29129.69
8427.23
514.80
-62.61
38009.12
5,376
-409
75
(334)
(450)
101
(349)
-534.48
163
(371)
-486.35
163
(323)
-433.30
163
(270)
-406.67
163
(244)
-380.19
163
(217)
-344.87
163
(182)
-130
3,501
(129)
2,455
-73
3,003
0
3,150
0
3,764
0
4,117
0
4,669
0
5,195
1195
2,306
684
1,771
-401
-401
1,905
181
181
1,952
0.2
0.2
Interest expense
Foreign exchange gain
Net finance costs
Actual
2010
877.57
2,272
1,048.70
2,715
1,147.12
2,970
1,300.68
3,368
1,447.20
3,747
-267
(267)
1,899
0
2,272
0
2,715
0
2,970
0
3,368
0
3,747
0.16
0.16
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.26
0.30
0.30
0.33
0.33
2011
2012
2013
Expected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2,306.00 $
1,771.00
2,166.48
2,272.37
2,715.47
2,970.31
3,367.95
3,747.35
2,389.00
52.00
409.00
1,195.00
(23.00)
6,328.00
2,082.00
48.00
450.00
684.00
(41.00)
4,994.00
2158.57
56
534.48
836.68
0
5,752.21
2158.57
56
486.35
877.57
0
5,850.86
2158.57
56
433.30
1,048.70
0
6,412.04
2158.57
56
406.67
1,147.12
0
6,738.67
2158.57
56
380.19
1,300.68
0
7,263.39
2158.57
56
344.87
1,447.20
0
7,753.99
Change in inventories
Change in trade and other receivables
Change in prepayments
Change in trade and other payables
Change in provisions and other long-term liabilities
Cahs generated (used) from operating activities
(671.00)
(2,343.00)
(110.00)
2,136.00
(17.00)
5,323.00
(2,339.00)
(1,087.00)
217.00
923.00
(19.00)
2,689.00
1,215.00
586.50
(465.77)
0
7,087.94
(607.50)
(293.25)
232.88
0
5,183.00
303.75
146.63
(116.44)
0
6,745.97
(151.88)
(73.31)
58.22
0
6,571.71
75.94
36.66
(29.11)
0
7,346.88
(37.97)
(18.33)
14.56
0
7,712.24
Interest paid
Income tax paid
Net cash generated (used) in operating activities
(409.00)
(1,186.00)
3,728.00
(450.00)
(495.00)
1,744.00
-534.48
(840.50)
5,712.97
-486.35
(840.50)
3,856.15
-433.30
(840.50)
5,472.17
-406.67
(840.50)
5,324.53
-380.19
(840.50)
6,126.19
-344.87
(840.50)
6,526.88
(41.00)
(1,515.00)
3,472.00
(1,846.00)
1,303.00
(226.00)
2,703.00
2461.00
-1217
780
-226
1,798.00
-528.00
-644
0
-226
(1,398.00)
-528.00
-748
0
-226
(1,502.00)
-528.00
-189
0
-226
(943.00)
-528.00
-186
0
-226
(940.00)
-528.00
-373
0
-226
(1,127.00)
Adjustments for:
Amortization of property, plant and equipment
Amortization of intangible assets
Interest Expense
Income tax expense
Gain on slae of property, plant and equipment
836.68
2,166
(227.00)
(1,783.00)
17.00
(84.00)
(29.00)
(2,189.00)
(2,285.00)
41.00
(77.00)
651.00
(4,856.00)
(4,241.00)
40
0
0
-3343.75
(3,303.75)
0
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
-
(340.00)
206.00
4,207.22
2,458.15
3,970.17
4,381.53
5,186.19
5,399.88
869.00
422.00
633.00
4,828.22
7,274.37
11,137.54
15,412.07
20,491.26
(107.00)
-12
-107
-107
-107
-107
422.00
7,274.37
11,137.54
15,412.07
20,491.26
25,784.13
Balance Sheet
(in thousands of Canadian dollars)
For the years ended December 31,
Actual
2010
5.00
633.00
2011
-12
4,828.22
2012
2013
422.00 $
633.00
10,634.00
11,807.00
234.00
280.00
20,583.00
23,013.00
874.00
660.00
32,747.00
36,393.00
4,828.22
11,220.50
0
21,798.00
767.00
38,613.72
7,274.37
11,513.75
0
22,405.50
767.00
41,960.62
11,164.00
311.00
1,044.00
828.00
13,953.00
346.00
1,044.00
177.00
15,058.18
290.00
1,044.00
177
13,347.00
15,520.00
46,094.00
Current liabilities:
Bank indebtdness
Trade and other payables
Income taxes payables
Provisions
Current portion of long-term debt
Total current liabilities
Expected
2014
2015
2016
2017
11,137.54
11,367.13
0
22,101.75
767.00
45,373.41
15,412.07
11,440.44
0
22,253.63
767.00
49,873.13
20,491.26
11,403.78
0
22,177.69
767.00
54,839.72
25,784.13
11,422.11
0
22,215.66
767.00
60,188.90
12,899.61
234.00
1,044.00
177
10,741.04
178.00
1,044.00
177
8,582.46
122.00
1,044.00
177
6,423.89
66.00
1,044.00
177
4,265.32
10.00
1,044.00
177
16,569.18
14,354.61
12,140.04
9,925.46
7,710.89
5,496.32
51,913.00
55,182.90
56,315.22
57,513.45
59,798.60
62,550.62
65,685.22
5,898.00
7,883.00
16.00
200.00
1,864.00
15,861.00
9,370.00
8,822.00
145.00
1,217.00
19,554.00
11,831.00
8,356.23
473
145
1051.2
21,856.43
11,303.00
8,589.12
0
145
819.36
20,856.48
10,775.00
8,472.67
0
145
550.08
19,942.75
10,247.00
8,530.89
0
145
482.04
19,404.93
9,719.00
8,501.78
0
145
415.08
18,780.86
9,191.00
8,516.34
0
145
280.8
18,133.14
Non-current liabilities
Other long-term liabilities
Long-term debt
Provisions
Deferred tax liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
175.00
2,024.00
120.00
172.00
2,491.00
18,352.00
166.00
2,140.00
165.00
420.00
2,891.00
22,445.00
166
1869
165
394.35
2,594.15
24,450.58
215.8
1457
165
461.39
2,298.83
23,155.31
280.54
978
165
553.67
1,977.13
21,919.88
364.70
857
165
664.40
2,051.06
21,456.00
474.11
738
165
797.28
2,174.31
20,955.18
718.32
499
165
956.74
2,339.25
20,472.39
Equity:
Share capital
Contributed surplus
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
Retained earnings
Total equity
10,249.00
290.00
(401.00)
17,604.00
27,742.00
10,249.00
290.00
(220.00)
19,149.00
29,468.00
10249
290
(629.17)
20,822.48
30,732.31
10249
290
(247.93)
22,868.85
33,159.92
10249
290
(303.76)
25,358.32
35,593.56
10249
290
(299.04)
28,102.63
38,342.59
10249
290
(188.14)
31,244.58
41,595.44
10249
290
(92.10)
34,765.93
45,212.83
46,094.00
51,913.00
55,182.89
56,315.23
57,513.44
59,798.59
62,550.62
65,685.22
Assets
Current assets:
Cash
Trade and other receivables
Income taxes receivables
Inventories
Prepaid expenses
Total current assets
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Intangible assets
Investment in properties
Equity investment
Defered tax assets
Total non-current assets
Total assets
Liabilities
Debt Schedule
(in thousands of Canadian dollars, expected per share amount)
For the years ended December 31,
Actual
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.298%
3.25%
0.298%
3.25%
3888
3888
-1846
1303
-531
3357
3357
-1217
780
-437
2920
5%
210
4.05%
136
5953
5898
0
3472
3,472.00
9,370.00
LIBOR Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Long-term debt
Amount Outstanding - Beginning
Scheduled Repayments
Debt refinancing
Net debt repayment
Amount Outstanding - Ending
Interest Rate
Annual Interest Expense
Bank Indebtedness
Amount Outstanding - Beginning
Scheduled Repayments
Debt refinancing
Net debt repayment
Amount Outstanding - Ending
5,898.00
Expected
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.298%
3.25%
0.298%
3.25%
0.298%
3.25%
0.298%
3.25%
2920
-644
0
-644
2276
2276
-748
0
-748
1528
1528
-189
0
-189
1339
1339
-186
0
-186
1153
1153
-373
0
-373
780
4.73%
138.01
4.73%
107.57
4.73%
72.22
4.73%
63.28
4.73%
54.49
4.73%
36.86
9,370.00
(528.00)
2989
2,461.00
11831.00
11831.00
(528.00)
0
(528.00)
11,303.00
11,303.00
(528.00)
0
(528.00)
10,775.00
10,775.00
(528.00)
0
(528.00)
10,247.00
10,247.00
(528.00)
0
(528.00)
9,719.00
9,719.00
(528.00)
0
(528.00)
9,191.00
Interest Rate
Interest Expense
Total Interest expense
3.4%
199
3.4%
314
3.4%
396.47
3.4%
378.78
3.4%
361.08
3.4%
343.39
3.4%
325.70
3.4%
308.00
409
450
534.48
486.35
433.30
406.67
380.19
344.87
2015
2016
2017
2,970.31
1,147.12
4,117.43
1,636.68
(275.04)
(241.28)
9.88
31.70
(14.82)
1,147.12
3,367.95
1,300.68
4,668.63
1,855.78
(311.86)
(273.58)
11.20
35.95
(16.81)
1,300.68
3,747.35
1,447.20
5,194.55
2,064.83
(347.00)
(304.40)
12.47
40.00
(18.70)
1,447.20
2015
2016
2017
Tax
(in thousands of Canadian dollars, expected per share amount)
For the years ended December 31,
Actual
Actual
2010
Account balances
Trade and other receivables
Inventories
Prepaid expenses
Trade and other payables
Net working capital
Change in foreign currency translation
Change in working capital
10,634.00
20,583.00
874.00
7,883.00
24,208.00
(107.00)
Actual
2010
Revenue
Revenue Growth
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Depreciation & amortization
EBIT
Depreciation & amortization
EBITDA
Less: Unlevered Cash Taxes
Less: Changes in net working capital
Less: CAPEX
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
2012
2013
1,771.00
683.96
2,455.00
975.86
(163.99)
(143.86)
5.89
18.90
(8.84)
683.96
2,166.48
836.68
3,003.16
1,193.76
(200.61)
(175.99)
7.21
23.12
(10.81)
836.68
2,272.37
877.57
3,149.94
1,252.10
(210.42)
(184.59)
7.56
24.25
(11.34)
877.57
2011
2012
2013
11,807.00
23,013.00
660.00
8,822.00
26,658.00
5.00
(2,445.00)
11,220.50
21,798.00
767.00
8,356.23
25,429.27
(51.00)
1,177.73
11,513.75
22,405.50
767.00
8,589.12
26,097.13
(23.00)
(690.87)
11,367.13
22,101.75
767.00
8,472.67
25,763.20
(37.00)
296.93
11,440.44
22,253.63
767.00
8,530.89
25,930.17
(30.00)
(196.97)
11,403.78
22,177.69
767.00
8,501.78
25,846.68
(33.50)
49.98
11,422.11
22,215.66
767.00
8,516.34
25,888.43
(31.75)
(73.49)
0.83
1.83
2.83
3.83
4.83
2013
Expected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2011
2012
15%
3%
8.8
WACC
14.5% ## ###
1.21 # ##
1.29 # ##
1.37 # ##
1.46 # ##
1.56 # ##
1.27
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
14.0%
1.31
1.40
1.49
1.59
1.70
2.00
2.0%
6.5x
7.5x # ##
1.36
1.64
EV/EVITDA
#
##
2,715.47
1,048.70
3,764.16
1,496.26
(251.45)
(220.58)
9.03
28.98
(13.55)
1,048.70
Expected
2014
3,282.70
3,017.02
1291.11
19377.10
27701.46
2541.88
2031.44
20668.22
28992.57
-13579.00
7,274.37
14363.58
22,687.94
11334
1.27
2.00
Sensitivity Analysis
Growth rate
2011
$ 78,587.00 $ 85,487.00 $
8.78%
3,965.00
2,933.00
5.05%
3.43%
2,441.00
2,130.00
1,524
803
2,441.00
2,130.00
3,965.00
2,933.00
1195
684
(2,445.00)
(2,285.00)
(4,241.00)
485.00
(4,437.00)
Expected
2014
3,635.12
33094.94
47,312.44
2128.37
158,206.52
10.67%
5,376.41
3.40%
2,214.57
3,162
2,214.57
5,376.41
1447.20
(73.49)
3,855.72
3,855.72
Growth rate
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.64
1.64
1.64
1.64
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