Professional Documents
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Last 53,7 1,3590 98,14 2,75 3,13 3,81 1,02 1,41 1,53 4,05 1,34 4,98 1,72 5,91 2,33 3,80 2,26 US
Perf 1d % 0,60 0,47 0,60 1,27 bp -1,6 bp 3,24 0,65 -0,01 0,47 2,92 -0,34 3,55 0,36 4,37 1,29 2,54 1,24 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
Personal Income & Spending (12.30 GMT) expected –01% & +0.2% from previous +0.4 & +0.6% / the highest the better / incomes were
amazingly resilient lately, as well as spending, not really fitting with the crisis mood (lower mortgage rates ? lower oil prices ?) / minor
PCE (12.30 GMT) expected +0.2% from previous +0.1% / should once more remind that deflation is not really happening … / minor
Michigan Index (14.00 GMT) expected 56.8 from 56.6 / just a confirmation, should be revised on the upside thanks to the latest equity
rebound / minor.
POSITIVE IMPACTS
BARCLAYS 's loan book is in the final stages of an extreme stress test by the FSA (FT) / FSA will conclude the testing of the bank's
books in the next few days. There are indications Barclays doesn't need any fresh capital, the FT reported.
COMMERZBANK could divest itself of more noncore activities than previously believed (Handelsblatt)
MAN AG : BlackRock has raised its stake in MAN AG to 3.02%
SAP proposed 2008 dividend of €0.50 per share (pay-out ratio of 32%), unch. Vs last year & in line with estimates
SIEMENS maintained its outlook for 2009 “for the time being” but declined to elaborate if it will lower its outlook when it unveils Q2 results
on April 29 / However, it said that its Q2 operating of its 3 main sectors will grow in a 2-digit-percentage range, compared with the year
ago quarter / Order intake in the January to March quarter, nevertheless, is expected significantly below the prior year level
ACCIONA's acquisition of €2.9bn of renewable energy assets from ENEL-ENDESA has been approved by the energy sector regulator
GAS NATURAL : GDF SUEZ said it will subscribe in full to Gas Natural's planned capital hike to avoid dilution of its current stake (9%)
TSMC : Orders from Qualcomm will likely raise the utilization rate of TSMC 12-inch wafer plants to 80% in the Q2 (Commercial Times) /
Qualcomm is increasing orders to meet better-than-exp. sales of phones in Europe, the US and from emerging markets
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
AIR FRANCE warned it expects an operating loss of about €200 m for its fiscal year ending March 31, blaming shrinking passenger traffic
and cargo activity and a financial hit from its fuel hedging / Just a month ago, it indicated it would achieve an operating profit…
UBS : The U.S. Internal Revenue Service announced new steps aimed at getting taxpayers hiding money in offshore accounts to pay up,
promising not to file criminal charges for those who voluntarily fess up to hiding money overseas
BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA : 2008 net profit €953m, in line / Dividend €0.013 (0.02 exp) / Will seek to issue €1.9bn (€2bn
exp.) in state-backed bonds / Tier1 7.1% post govt bond / Good indications in first 2 months / Result Presentation at 0930 UKT
BNP (expected) plans to hold an EGM to authorize the issue of preferred shares to the French government.
VEOLIA : Moody's changed to negative from stable the outlook on the A3 senior unsecured ratings to reflect the sharp slowdown
currently being experienced in the waste services market
RWE : A German court rejected RWE’s motion to extend the life of its Biblis A and Brunsbuettel nuclear reactors by shifting production.
WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24
BUY ROCHE / MUNICH RE / L OREAL / EON / ACCOR / AIR FRANCE / LAFARGE on reversal Head & Shoulder
BUY NESTLE / UNILEVER / PERNOD / THYSSEN / ARCELOR on double bottom possibility
BUY NOKIA / BBVA / BNP / AXA / DPW to play gap closure above soon
SELL DBK to play double top possibility & SELL SAP seems toppish for now
BUY PFIZER / SELL SCHERING // BUY BNP / SELL DBK // BUY MUNICH RE / SELL ALLIANZ
BUY LINDE / SELL AIR LIQUIDE // BUY FTE / SELL TEF
BROKER METEOROLOGY
VALLOUREC ......................... RAISED TO BUY ............................................................................................... BY BANK OF AMERICA
SCHNEIDER........................... RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL .................................................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
BMW ....................................... RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD............................................................................................BY SOC GEN
EUROPEAN AUTO SAHRES. RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT ................................................................................................BY SOC GEN
ATLANTIA ............................. ADDED TO MOST PREFERED LIST .......................................................................................... BY UBS
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After reaching their highest level during their last release American continuing claims rose to a new record at 5.56 million (the total
benefit rolls jumped 122 000 in the week ended March 14th) confirming the difficulty of finding a job for unemployed Americans. This is
not a real surprise as despite the gloomy economic fundamentals representing roughly 60% of the lay off, companies are in a fear state
of mind which could explained the 40 % remaining. Meaning that Companies could adjust significantly this trend when the economy will
start recovering mid 2009.
ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
23.30 GMT Japan National consumer price february -0,1% YoY 0,0% YoY
23.30 GMT Japan National consumer price core (ex food and energy) february 0,0%, -0,2% YoY 0,0%, -0,2% YoY
23.50 GMT Japan Retail trade february -0,6%,-3,3% YoY -0,1%,-2,4% YoY
7.45 GMT France GDP ( final) 4th quarter - 1,2 %, - 1 % YoY -1,2%,-1,0% YoY -1,2%,-1,0% YoY
9.30 GMT United Kingdom GDP ( final) 4th quarter -1,5%,-1,9%YoY -1,5%,-1,9%YoY
10.00 GMT Euro zone Industrial new orders January -5,6%,-28,4% YoY -5,2%,-22,3% YoY
12.30 GMT United-States Personal income february +0% -0,1% +0,4%
12.30 GMT United-States Personal spending february + 0,4 % 0,2% 0,6%
12.30 GMT United-States Personal spending core (ex food and energy) february 0,2%,+1,6% YoY 0,1%,+1,6% YoY
14.00 GMT United-States University of Michigan confidence (final) March 56,8 56,6
Keep an eye in France on the final release of the GDP due 7.45 GMT which will confirm the sharp drop of French economy at the
fourth quarter ./JB
ECONOMY
UNITED-STATES : THE ECONOMY CONTRACTED THE MOST SINCE 1982 AT THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2008
The final release of the U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter ( annualised) at -6.3% confirmed the preliminary release of -6.2% and the
sharp drop of the American economy. Indeed the credit crunch, the slump of the real estate and the car sector crisis impacted very
negatively the American economy, increasing the unemployment ,cutting household consumption ( -4.3% at the fourth quarter, the
lowest level since 1980) and humping companies investments. Nevertheless the drop of the interest rates, the fell of energy prices
and the Obama plan will have a positive impact on the economy at the second semester. Consequently the U.S. GDP should turn
positive at the second half of 2009.
2 -1
27/03/2007 27/09/2007 27/03/2008 27/09/2008 27/03/2009 27/03/2007 27/09/2007 27/03/2008 27/09/2008 27/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
30 1,2
27/03/2007 27/09/2007 27/03/2008 27/09/2008 27/03/2009 27/03/2007 27/09/2007 27/03/2008 27/09/2008 27/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg