Objective The goal of this project is to determine whether there is a correlation between coronal mass ejection activity and

the solar sunspot cycle, using historical data. Introduction Before You Start: The sun has periods of increased, solar maximum, and decreased, solar minimum, sunspot activity. This 11-year cycle has effects on many types of space weather. Before starting this experiment you should read a bit about the sunspot cycle and determine where we currently are in the cycle. During a solar minimum you may need to rely on historical data (which we tell you how to obtain in the Experimental Procedure) to complete this project.

You know that the sun is the ultimate source of energy for most life on earth. Sunlight warms the atmosphere and supplies the energy that plants use to grow. Did you also know that the sun sometimes releases huge bursts of electrified gases into space? These bursts are called coronal mass ejections (or CMEs). When CMEs are directed towards Earth they can generate auroras, the spectacular atmospheric displays also known as "northern lights" (see Figure 1, below).

Figure 1. An example of an aurora photographed in northern Wisconsin, November 20, 2001 by Chris VenHaus (used with permission, Copyright Chris VenHaus, 2001) CMEs can not only put on a spectacular light show, they can also wreak havoc with earth-orbiting satellites and sometimes even ground-based electrical systems. To understand how they can cause such widespread damage, here are some basic facts of solar physics from a NASA press release to help put things in perspective (NASA, 2003). "At over 1.4 million kilometers (869,919 miles) wide, the Sun contains 99.86 percent of the mass of the entire solar system: well over a million Earths could fit inside its bulk. The total energy radiated by the Sun averages 383 billion trillion kilowatts, the equivalent of the energy generated by 100 billion tons of TNT exploding each and every second. But the energy released by the Sun is not always constant. Close inspection of the Sun's surface reveals a turbulent tangle of magnetic fields and boiling arc-shaped clouds of hot plasma dappled by dark, roving sunspots. Once in a while--exactly when scientists still cannot predict--an event occurs on the surface of the Sun that releases a tremendous amount of energy in the form of a solar flare or a coronal mass ejection, an explosive burst of very hot, electrified gases with a mass that can surpass that of Mount Everest." (NASA, 2003) To understand where CMEs originate, you should do background research on the structure of the sun. The layers of the sun are illustrated in Figure 2, below (ESA & NASA, 2007a).

Figure 2. The layers of the sun. (ESA & NASA, 2007a) CMEs were discovered in the early 1970's, although their existence had been suspected for a long time before that (Howard, 2006). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite, a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA, has been observing the sun in unprecedented detail since its launch in 1995. Sunspots are another solar phenomenon that have a much longer history of scientific study than CMEs. Sunspots were first discovered by Galileo Galilei in 1612, when he noticed dark patches in telescopic images of the sun. Galileo made regular observations of sunspots and was able to prove that he was seeing features on the surface of the sun, which moved as the sun rotated. (Another interesting project involving sunspots is to recreate Galileo's experiments using satellite imagery that you can Figure 3. Reproduction of one of collect online. See Using the Solar & Heliospheric Observatory Galileo's sunspot drawings from Satellite (SOHO) to Determine the Rotation of the Sun.) his book on the subject, What is a sunspot, anyway? The SOHO Explore Glossary defines a published in 1613. (Van Helden, sunspot this way: "a temporary disturbed area in the solar A. and E. Burr, 1995) photosphere that appears dark because it is cooler than the surrounding areas. Sunspots consist of concentrations of strong magnetic flux. They usually occur in pairs or groups of opposite polarity that move in unison across the face of the Sun as it rotates." (SOHO Explore Glossary, 2006) To see what sunspots looks like using modern instrumentation, here are two images of the sun's photosphere, taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (a joint project of NASA and the European Space Agency). The one on the left was taken on November 15, 1999. The one on the right was taken on February 20, 2006.

Figure 4. Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) intensitygrams, showing the brightness of the sun's photosphere in visible light. Dark areas are sunspots. White box indicates the region covered by high-resolution imager. The image on the left was taken on November 15, 1999. The image on the right was taken on February 20, 2006. For more solar images, check out the SOHO links in the Bibliography. The EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images show the sun's atmosphere for specific wavelengths in the ultraviolet region of the spectrum. For example, at 171 angstroms (one angstrom is one ten-billionth of a meter, or 10-10 m) the UV light is mostly emitted by Fe IX and X (iron ionized 8 or 9 times) at 1 million degrees Kelvin. The iron emissions provide a dramatic visualization of the magnetic field lines.

Figure 5 shows two examples of these amazing images, corresponding to the same dates as the visible-light images in Figure 4. Note how the regions of arching magnetic loops on the sun's surface in the left-hand image of Figure 5 correspond closely to the sunspot locations in the left-hand image of Figure 4, above.

Figure 5. Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) intensitygrams, showing the brightness of the sun's photosphere in visible light. Dark areas are sunspots. White box indicates the region covered by high-resolution imager. The image on the left was taken on November 15, 1999. The image on the right was taken on February 20, 2006. We've come a long way from Galileo's telescope in 1612! But as you'll see, there is still value in data from hundreds of years ago. We have annual data on sunspot numbers going back to 1700, and monthly data to 1749. (Think for a moment about how many people must have contributed to the endeavor over more than three hundred years of daily observations!) The sunspot number for an observation is equal to the number of individual sunspots observed plus ten times the number of groups of sunspots observed. The reason for doing this is that viewing conditions are not always ideal, and an average group has about ten sunspots. This way, the data is reliable even when small spots are hard to visualize. The monthly sunspot number is the average of all the daily numbers for the month. Below is a graph of the monthly data.

Monthly sunspot number, 17492005. The horizontal tick marks are at 11-year intervals, the approximate length of the solar sunspot cycle. It is obvious from the graph that sunspot activity is cyclical, with the numbers regularly rising and falling. The tick marks on the horizontal axis are at 11-year intervals, the approximate length of the solar cycle. For example, if you compare the tick marks spanning the period from 1838 to 1893 (marked by blue asterisks), you see that they fall at about the peak of each of those cycles. The solar sunspot cycle has been observed for hundreds of years, a long time span compared to a human life, but not even an eye blink compared to the life of the sun (x billion years, and slowly counting). Nevertheless, at least at this point in time, the sunspot cycle appears to be a robust phenomenon. A question that immediately jumps to mind is "What about CMEs? Do their numbers rise and fall like the sunspot cycle?" In this project you'll find out, using data collected since 1996 by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This data set is our most comprehensive study of CMEs since they were discovered in the early 1970's. "A coronagraph is a telescope that is designed to block light coming from the solar disk, in order to see the extremely faint emission from the region around the sun, called the corona." (LASCO, date unknown). The LASCO instrument is actually three separate coronagraphs (called C1, C2, and C3).

Each of the coronagraphs has a different field of view, ranging from 3 to 30 solar radii (one solar radius is about 700,000 km, or 420,000 miles).

The C3 coronagraph images the corona from about 3.5 to 30 solar radii. The C2 coronagraph images the corona from about 1.5 to 6 solar radii. The C1 coronagraph operated for only the first two and half years after SOHO was launched. During that time, it imaged the corona from 1.1 to 3 solar radii.

In this project, you'll use data collected from the LASCO coronagraphs to see if CME activity is cyclical, and, if so, whether or not it is correlated with the solar sunspot cycle. Terms, Concepts, and Questions to Start Background Research To do this project, you should do research that enables you to understand the following terms and concepts:

coordinated universal time (UTC), basic facts about the sun (size, distance from earth, temperature), solar sunspot cycle, parts of the sun:
o o o o o o

core, radiative zone, convective zone, chromosphere, photosphere, corona;

coronagraph, coronal mass ejection.

Questions

Where in space is the Solar & Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite and how was it launched? What is the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instrument on SOHO?

Bibliography

For more information on coronal mass ejections (and solar physics in general), see these webpages:

NASA, 2003. "Solar Superstorm," NASA HQ Press Release [accessed January 11, 2007] http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/23oct_superstorm.htm. Hathaway, David H., 2006. "Solar Physics: Coronal Mass Ejections," Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [accessed January 8, 2007] http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml. Webb, David. P., 1995. "Coronal mass ejections: The key to major interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances," Rev. Geophys. (33, Suppl.) [accessed January 8, 2007] available online at: http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/webb01/webb01.html. Boen, B., 2006. "Animation of a Coronal Mass Ejection," Solar-B Mission to the Sun, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [accessed January 8, 2007] http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/solar-b/solar_mm_001.html. Howard, R.A., 2006. "A Historical Perspective on Coronal Mass Ejections," in Gopalswamy, N., R.A. Mewaldt and J. Torsti (eds.), 2006. Solar Eruptions and Energetic Particles, Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union, preprint available online (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader) [accessed January 11, 2007] http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/summerschool/lectures/vourlidas/AV_intro2CMEs/ additional%20material/corona_history.pdf.

This CME catalog is generated and maintained at the CDAW Data Center by NASA and The Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. Yashiro, S., and N. Gopalswamy, 2006. "SOHO LASCO CME Catalog," CDAW Data Center[accessed January 8, 2007] http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/. Hathaway, D.H., 2005. "The Sunspot Cycle," NASA Science Directorate, Marshall Space Flight Center [accessed February 20, 2006] http://science.nasa.gov/solar/sunspots.htm. Historical sunspot data is available from: Van der Linden, R.A.M. and the SIDC team, 2006, "Online Catalogue of the Sunspot Index," SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium [accessed February 20, 2006] http://sidc.oma.be/. Here is an Excel tutorial to get you started using a spreadsheet program: James, B., date unknown. "Excel 101," University of South Dakota, http://www.usd.edu/trio/tut/excel/. Galileo's sunspot drawing was reproduced, with permission, from Professor Owen Gingerich's copy of the first edition of Istoria e Dimostrazioni Intorno Alle Macchie Solari e Loro Accidenti Rome (History and Demonstrations Concerning Sunspots and their Properties, published 1613), and published online here: Van Helden, A. and E. Burr, 1995. "Galileo's Sunspot Drawings," The Galileo Project, Rice University [accessed February 20, 2006] http://galileo.rice.edu/sci/observations/sunspot_drawings.html.

Materials and Equipment

To do this experiment you will need the following materials and equipment:

computer with Internet access, graph paper (or graphing software)

Experimental Procedure 1. Do your background research so that you are knowledgeable about the terms, concepts, and questions, above. 2. Make a graph of historical sunspot data showing at least the last four solar sunspot cycles (i.e., starting in 1964 or earlier). a. Historical data is available online from Van der Linden, R.A.M. and the SIDC team, 2006 (see Bibliography section). b. You can make your graph by hand on graph paper, or with graphing software on the computer. c. Detailed instructions on graphing this data using Excel can be found in the Science Buddies project Sunspot Cycles. 3. Use the online catalog of CME data from the SOHO LASCO instruments (Yashiro, S., and N. Gopalswamy, 2006), to create a table of monthly numbers of CMEs for the time period 1996present. a. Click on a month from the table (see screenshot, below).

b. Each entry in the table contains information about a single CME event. c. Count up events for each month. d. Create your own data table of monthly CME totals. 4. Add the CME numbers to the solar sunspot cycle plot, using a separate y-axis scale (on the right-hand side of the graph). a. Scan the table to determine the range of the monthly CME data. Remember that the range corresponds to the minimum and maximum number of monthly CMEs from the entire table. b. Create a y-axis on the right-hand side of your graph that matches the CME range to the height of the monthly sunspot graph. c. Using your CME scale, plot the monthly CME numbers on the graph by hand. d. Note: if you are skilled with using computer software and have access to a more flexible scientific graphing program (e.g., Origin, SigamPlot, GraphPad), you can

probably figure out how to create a graph with two different y-axes on the computer. 5. Compare the two curves on your graph. Does the number of CMEs rise and fall in a manner similar to the solar sunspot cycle? If so, this demonstrates a correlation between the two phenomena. Remember, though, that correlation does not imply causation. We may have good cause to believe that sunspots and CMEs are somehow related, but the correlation does not prove that one causes the other.

The sun backround info The mean distance of the Sun from the Earth is approximately 149.6 million kilometers (1 AU), though the distance varies as the Earth moves from perihelion in January to aphelion in July

The Sunspot Cycle (Updated 2012/04/02) Sunspot Numbers In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.

Click on image for larger version.

The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number of individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see. Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers (181 kb JPEG image), (307 kb pdf-file), (62 kb text file) show that the number of sunspots visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle. (Note: there are actually at least two "official" sunspot numbers reported. The International Sunspot Number is compiled by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center in

Belgium. The NOAA sunspot number is compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The numbers tabulated in spot_num.txt are the monthly averages (SSN) and standard deviation (DEV) derived from the International Sunspot Numbers) The Maunder Minimum Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research. The Butterfly Diagram

Click on image for larger version.

Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory since 1874. These observations include information on the sizes and positions of sunspots as well as their numbers. These data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the surface of the sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the equator. A butterfly diagram (142 kb GIF image) (184 kb pdf-file) (updated monthly) showing the positions of the spots for each rotation of the sun since May 1874 shows that these bands first form at mid-latitudes, widen, and then move toward the equator as each cycle progresses.

The Greenwich Sunspot Data The Royal Greenwich Observatory data has been appended with data obtained by the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network since 1977. This newer data has been reformatted to conform to the older Greenwich data and both are available in a local directory of ASCII files. Each file contains records for a given year with individual records providing information on the daily observations of active regions. Sunspot Cycle Predictions

Click on image for larger version.

MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have studied the sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help in predicting future sunspot activity. Our current predictions of solar activity for the next few years can be found at this link. Although sunspots themselves produce only minor effects on solar emissions, the magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can produce dramatic changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper atmosphere.