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0
Constant -0.7242 0.000
0
Constant -0.4435 0.000
1
Laycan LC
i,t
0.0024 0.000
1
Laycan LC
i,t
0.0035 0.000
2
Size SZ
i
0.0039 0.000
2
Size SZ
i
0.0060 0.000
3
Age AG
i
0.0084 0.001
3
Age AG
i
0.0066 0.000
4
AG
2
i
-0.0008 0.000
4
AG
2
i
-0.0006 0.000
5
Volatility VOL
t
-0.0233 0.154
5
Volatility VOL
t
0.0020 0.878
Route Route
o
1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage 0.0298 0.319 o
1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage 0.0368 0.000
o
2
Continent to Far East 0.2685 0.000 o
2
Continent to Far East 0.1494 0.000
o
3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage -0.0301 0.263 o
3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage -0.0910 0.000
o
4
Far East to Continent -0.3230 0.000 o
4
Far East to Continent -0.1709 0.000
o
5
Mediterranean to Far East 0.2474 0.000
o
6
PG Indian Ocean to Far East 0.0809 0.000
o
7
Far East to PG-Indian Ocean -0.0757 0.000
o
8
Continent to PG-Indian Ocean 0.1900 0.000
o
9
PG Indian Ocean to Continent -0.1504 0.000
2
R
0.5807 0.346
BG test 37.054 0.000 111.44 0.000
White test 208.10 0.000 801.53 0.000
JB test 2.15*10
5
0.000 1.4*10
4
0.000
- BG test is the Breusch and Godfrey LM test for 10
th
order serial correlation in residuals, which follows Chi-squared distribution with 10 degrees of freedom.
- White Test is the White (1980) the F-test for heteroscedasticity. This is an LM test which follows Chi-squared distribution with 4 degrees of freedom.
- JB the Jarque and Bera test for normality of residuals, which follows a Chi-squared distribution with 2 degrees of freedom.
- Standard Errors are corrected for hetreoscedasticity and Serial Correlation using Newey and West (1987) method.
20
Table 5: Determinants of the Laycan Period of Trip-Charters Contracts
) iid(0, ~ ;
2
1
, 5 4 3 2 , 1 0 ,
o c c | | | | | |
i i
K
j
j i j t i i t t i t i
RT VOL AG SZ bfi dfr LC + + + + + + + =
=
Capesize Panamax
Coeff P-val Coeff P-val
0
Constant 11.0116 0.000
0
Constant -0.9773 0.659
1
Diff Freight Rate dfr
i,t
3.3320 0.000
1
Diff Freight Rate dfr
i,t
2.1310 0.000
2
Baltic 4TC Rate bfi
t
0.4027 0.046
2
Baltic 4TC Rate bfi
t
0.4602 0.000
3
Size SZ
i
-0.0273 0.007
3
Size SZ
i
0.0205 0.456
4
Age AG
i
-0.0849 0.000
4
Age AG
i
0.0139 0.364
5
Volatility VOL
t
-3.2349 0.000
5
Volatility VOL
t
-1.0252 0.000
Route Route
o
1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage 0.1386 0.846 o
1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage -1.2121 0.000
o
2
Continent to Far East -0.3820 0.614 o
2
Continent to Far East -1.1709 0.000
o
3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage -1.3851 0.033 o
3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage -0.5197 0.005
o
4
Far East to Continent 0.1803 0.816 o
4
Far East to Continent 0.1840 0.480
o
5
Mediterranean to Far East 0.2333 0.662
o
6
PG - Indian Ocean to Far East 0.7599 0.003
o
7
Far East to PG-Indian Ocean -1.0153 0.000
o
8
Continent to PG-Indian Ocean -1.9339 0.000
o
9
PG - Indian Ocean to Continent 0.6261 0.126
2
R
0.0577 0.0341
BG test 44.27 0.000 65.15 0.000
White test 26.53 0.055 63.28 0.000
JB test 6283 0.000 4.17*10
4
0.000
- BG test is the Breusch and Godfrey LM test for 10
th
order serial correlation in residuals, which follows Chi-squared distribution with 10 degrees of freedom.
- White Test is the White (1980) the F-test for heteroscedasticity. This is an LM test which follows Chi-squared distribution with 4 degrees of freedom.
- JB the Jarque and Bera (1980) test for normality of residuals, which follows a Chi-squared distribution with 2 degrees of freedom.
- Standard Errors are corrected for hetreoscedasticity and Serial Correlation using Newey and West (1987) method.
21
Table 6: Determinants of Freight Rates and Laycan Periods of Capeszie Ship Trip-Charter contracts: A
Simultaneous Equation Estimation
i
K
j
j i j t i i t t i t i
i
K
j
j i j t i i i t i t i
RT VOL AG SZ bf i f r LC
RT VOL AG AG SZ LC f r
, 2
1
, , 2 5 4 3 2 , 1 0 ,
, 1
1
, , 1 5
2
4 3 2 , 1 0 ,
d
d
c o | | | | | |
c o o o o o o o
+ + + + + + + =
+ + + + + + + =
=
=
) (0, ~
, 2
, 1
i
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
i
i
c
c
dfr
i,t
Equation LC
i,t
Equation
Variables Coeff p-val Variables Coeff p-val
0
Constant
-0.7532 0.000
0
Constant
11.921 0.000
1
Laycan LC
i,t
0.0047 0.000
1
Diff Freight Rate dfr
i,t
6.4483 0.000
2
Size SZ
i
0.0039 0.000
2
Baltic 4TC Rate bfi
t
0.4878 0.021
3
Age AG
i
0.0084 0.000
3
Size SZ
i
-0.0386 0.000
4
AG
i
2
-0.0008 0.000
4
Age AG
i
-0.0518 0.012
5
Volatility VOL
t
-0.0150 0.238
5
Volatility VOL
t
-3.1427 0.000
Routes
Routes
o
1,1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage
0.0293 0.083
o
2,1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage
-0.0010 0.999
o
1,2
Continent to Far East
0.2675 0.000
o
2,2
Continent to Far East
-1.2539 0.048
o
1,3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage
-0.0266 0.074
o
2,3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage
-1.3085 0.019
o
1,4
Far East to Continent
-0.3213 0.000
o
2,4
Far East to Continent
1.1686 0.076
2
R
0.5777 0.0507
BG test
58.93 0.000 62.65 0.000
White test
71.94 0.000 35.10 0.000
JB test
20.9*10
4
0.000 6223 0.000
- BG test is the Breusch and Godfrey LM test for 10
th
order serial correlation in residuals, which follows Chi-squared distribution with 10 degrees of freedom.
- White Test is the White (1980) the F-test for heteroscedasticity. This is an LM test which follows Chi-squared distribution with 4 degrees of freedom.
- JB the Jarque and Bera test for normality of residuals, which follows a Chi-squared distribution with 2 degrees of freedom.
- Standard Errors are corrected for hetreoscedasticity and Serial Correlation using Newey and West (1987) method.
22
Table 7: Determinants of Freight Rates and Laycan Periods of Panamax Ship Trip-Charter Contracts: A System of
Simultaneous Equations
i
K
j
j i j t i i t t i t i
i
K
j
j i j t i i i t i t i
RT VOL AG SZ bf i f r LC
RT VOL AG AG SZ LC f r
, 2
1
, , 2 5 4 3 2 , 1 0 ,
, 1
1
, , 1 5
2
4 3 2 , 1 0 ,
d
d
c o | | | | | |
c o o o o o o o
+ + + + + + + =
+ + + + + + + =
=
=
) (0, ~
, 2
, 1
i
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
i
i
c
c
dfr
i,t
Equation LC
i,t
Equation
Variables Coeff p-val Variables Coeff p-val
0
Constant
-0.4487 0.000
0
Constant -0.2105 0.902
1
Laycan LC
i,t
0.0067 0.000
1
Diff Freight Rate dfr
i,t
4.0890 0.000
2
Size SZ
i
0.0058 0.000
2
Baltic 4TC Rate bfi
t
0.4508 0.000
3
Age AG
i
0.0064 0.000
3
Size SZ
i
0.0093 0.653
4
AG
i
2
-0.0006 0.000
4
Age AG
i
0.0329 0.005
5
Volatility VOL
t
0.0074 0.346
5
Volatility VOL
t
-1.0504 0.000
Routes Routes
o
1,1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage
0.0404 0.000 o
2,1
Trans Atlantic Round Voyage -1.2722 0.000
o
1,2
Continent to Far East
0.1522 0.000 o
2,2
Continent to Far East -1.4568 0.000
o
1,3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage
-0.0887 0.000 o
2,3
Trans Pacific Round Voyage -0.3438 0.028
o
1,4
Far East to Continent
-0.1703 0.000 o
2,4
Far East to Continent 0.5248 0.034
o
1,5
Mediterranean to Far East
0.2450 0.000 o
2,5
Mediterranean to Far East -0.2508 0.595
o
1,6
PG - Indian Ocean to Far East
0.0778 0.000 o
2,6
PG - Indian Ocean to Far East 0.6009 0.003
o
1,7
Far East to PG-Indian Ocean
-0.0720 0.000 o
2,7
Far East to PG-Indian Ocean -0.8621 0.001
o
1,8
Continent to PG-Indian Ocean
0.1950 0.000 o
2,8
Continent to PG-Indian Ocean -2.2912 0.000
o
1,9
PG - Indian Ocean to Continent
-0.1514 0.000 o
2,9
PG - Indian Ocean to Continent 0.9270 0.007
2
R
0.3412 0.0278
BG test 167.18 0.000 122.35 0.000
White test 799.29 0.000 60.479 0.000
JB test 13495 0.000 41000 0.000
- BG test is the Breusch and Godfrey LM test for 10
th
order serial correlation in residuals, which follows Chi-squared distribution with 10 degrees of freedom.
- White Test is the White (1980) the F-test for heteroscedasticity. This is an LM test which follows Chi-squared distribution with 4 degrees of freedom.
- JB the Jarque and Bera (1980) test for normality of residuals, which follows a Chi-squared distribution with 2 degrees of freedom.
- Standard Errors are corrected for hetreoscedasticity and Serial Correlation using Newey and West (1987) method.