EVS 2013 Final Group Report Presentation

Decoupling of Environmental Pressure from Quality of Life March 2013

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

The Team DEC

Philip Kuhlmann, GER
Uni: Leuphana Universitt Lneburg Study: Environmental Science Status: Student Expertise: Environmental chemistry

Julia Mller, GER

Uni: Leuphana Universitt Lneburg Study: Environmental Science Expertise: environmental and spatial science

Nathalie Smits, NL
University: Open Universiteit Nederland Study: Environmental Science Status: research/ project leader Expertise: Immunochemistry, Food Safety

Christina Schmitt, GER

Uni: FernUni Hagen, Study: Environmental Science Status: Vice Presid./ Global Telco comp. Expertise: Economics, Marketing, different industries

Charlotte v. Mllendorff, GER

University of Oldenburg Study: Sustainability Economics Status: student Expertise: Economics

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Project Scope & approach Decoupling Conclusion

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Scope: focus on energy production

Project Decoupling of Environmental Pressure from Quality of Life

What is Decoupling? Definition of term

Assessment of Decoupling environmental pressure due to energy use from quality of life in Germany, the Netherlands and Romania Relevance of DEC: decrease of environmental damage to achieve a sustainable development in Europe

Decoupling is achieved when the environmental pollution goes down while the quality of life goes up

Project Scope

Analyzing environmental influence of energy production on DEC Use of specific indicators to measure DEC in Germany, The Netherlands and Romania
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Explicit excluded is: indicator of quality of air

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Project approach in 3 steps

Definition of project: Define & focus project scope Define relevant countries (=students nationalities): GER, NL, RO 3 Hypothesis Develop research report Infrastructure & Orga Define teamwork/ structure, Roles & Responsibilities Research Select data sources Analysis of indicators: Quality of life: GDP Sox , NOx , CO2 Derive Conclusion Data preparation (e.g. tables, graphs) Review of 3 hypothesis data Conclusion Development of outlook

Research countries Data evaluation per country Comparison and interpretation of data results

Identified challenges and hurdles, e.g. Project scope to be focused due to project time schedule and project resources Data availability for Romania, NON-EU country Data access limited (avoid costs for data)
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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

3 selected countries

DEC Members OECD EU Member Population

3 (1952) 82 Mio.

0 (1)* X (2007) 21,5 Mio.

1 (1952) 16,4 Mio.

Size (km) GDP / Capita constant 2000 US$ (2011)

Average energy consumption / capita 1990-2013 (kWh)

356.854 26.207
6727

237.500 2.633
2298

41.526 26.653
6366

per kWh Electricity (Consumption 2 GWh/year)

0,1127
6

0,0896

0,0711

* Team formerly started with a student from Romania.

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

3 Hypothesis
Hypothesis Decoupling

1
Economic crisis has no effect on the quality of life (energy reduction)

2
OECD membership important for decoupling the environmental pressure of energy production

3
Quality of life changed in a positive way with renewable energy production.

Target: Analyze effect of declining economical situation and energy reduction

Target: verify positive effects of OECD membership and environment as well as the energy production.

Target: Analyze positive effects of renewable energy on quality of life. Analyze Renewable energy (methods, sources, characteristics )

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Project Scope & approach Decoupling Conclusion

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Decoupling
Decoupling in theory Absolute decoupling: economic growth is rising while the environmental pressure decreases or stays at the same level. Relative decoupling: environmental pollution is growing but remains below the economic growth rate.

Quality of life Chosen variables to study objective and subjective appreciation of quality of life:

Environmental Pressure Chosen indicators to study energy-related decoupling:

Gross Domestic Product as an objective variable Happiness as subjective variable

Selected variables

GHG, SOx and NOx emissions from energy use per unit of GDP CO2 emissions from electricity generation

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Decoupling results (I)

GHG, SOx and NOx emissions per unit of GDP and Happiness
1990 = 100 1990 = 100 1990 = 100

year

year

year

GDP,

Happiness,
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GHG,

NOx and

SOx
Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Decoupling results (II)

CO2 emissions intensity of electricity generation
1990 = 100 1990 = 100 1990 = 100

year

year

year

total electricity production versus

CO2 emissions from electricity production.

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Hypo 1: Effect of economic crisis

1
The economic crisis has no effect on the quality of life and does not affect decoupling rates in terms of energy reduction.

Decoupling could not be observed during the economical crisis Graph for GER shows a decrease for the total GDP of around 100 billion US$ (constant 2000 US$) during the economical crisis.

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Hypo 2: OECD membership

2
OECD membership important for DEC in GER and NL. Decoupling rates of GER and NL higher than decoupling rates in RO. OECD member countries GER and NL perform partly better in DEC effect OECD positive for environmental politics & sustainable responsibility. Awareness of countries relevant to support environmental global politics by changing energy-related processes and consumption. Fear: high risk for environment with new and growing markets, BRIICS Renewable energy production much lower in BRIICS/Rest-of-world than in OECDs.

Fig.: GHG emissions, 1970-2005, (OECD, 2012b: 78).

Fig.: GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050 (OECD, 2012b:25).

Fig.: Government RD&D expenditures in energy in IEA member countries: 1974-2009 (OECD 2012b:102) Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Hypo 3: Quality of life and RE

3
The quality of life changed in a positive way during the time period of the last two decades when renewable energy production experienced an impressive development.

Hypothesis can be divided in 2 parts:

1. Quality of life changed in a positive way: true 2. Impressive renewable energy development over the last two decades: true

This however doesnt assign a causal relationship between the 2 parts

share of the total energy production for
14

year

Germany,

The Netherlands and

Romania.

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Project Scope & approach Decoupling Conclusion

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Conclusion
Summary of results Conclusion and Outlook

GHG emissions (energy): environmental impact of 70-80% The higher GDP, the higher the use of energy, positive correlation Happiness factor varies, no positive correlation CO2, NOx, SOx directly correlate with energy production per capita (GER, NL, RO) Absolute DEC existing in regard to CO2, SOx and NOx emissions Absolute DEC related to CO2 emissions not existing in NL

Effects of education and information transparency could be analyzed due to the energy use and environmental impact Idea of development without economic growth interesting perspective consumer behavior impact Sufficiency and consistence strategy next to efficiency strategy are fundamental for sustainable development in Europe

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Experience with EVS

Benefits of diversity
Broad and different expertise of students: economics, environmental studies Partly experience with decoupling Students represented two nationalities: GER and DE. (Romanian, Portuguese and Austrian members unfortunately left group). Member activity: different perspectives, continuous new ideas, solution approaches etc.

Challenges
Virtual teamwork as challenge. Reliability and discipline prerequisites for successful EVS study Team member structure and size instable. Work had to be shifted a couple of times. Limited support of EVS coordination, (module fee vs value not 100% clear)

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Thank You! Yours DEC Team

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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

BACK UP

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

Back-Up

Project approach in 3 steps (Details)

Definition of project, define

Research

Derive Conclusion

Project charter Project scope (focus: quality of life GDP as indicator) Relevant countries (=students nationality): GER, NL, RO 3 Hypothesis base for research And develop research report Align with EVS experts

Select reliable data sources per country and Europe Analysis criteria and factors: Quality of life: GDP as objective variable Sox, Nox, CO2 Verify/ falsify hypothesis

Data evaluation countries

Infrastructure & Organisation

Define/implement teamwork structure and Roles & Responsibilities Schedule project timing along EVS timetable

Data per country and variable and time period (1990-2010) Ensure data comparability (Challenge: RO not in EU) Comparison, derivation and interpretation of data results

Data preparation (e.g. tables, graphs) and interpretation Review and proof 3 hypothesis using data Summary of all findings Development of outlook of additional important instruments and strategies to evaluate decoupling and sustainable development

Identified challenges and hurdles, e.g. Project scope to be very focused due to EVS & project time schedule and project resources Data availability for Romania, NON-EU country Data access limited (avoid costs for data)
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Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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3 Hypothesis (Details)
Hypothesis Decoupling

1
The economic crisis has no effect on the quality of life and does not affect decoupling rates in terms of energy reduction.
Target: find out / verify that a declining economical situation the energy reduction will not be effected in a positive way. Proof: when the economical situation gets worse in GER, NL, RO the quality of life of the population will stagnate or even still grow. Optional relevant factors for economic crisis: GDP, Gross Government depth, deficit or surplus, (Youth) Unemployment rate

2 OECD membership of a country

is of importance for decoupling the environmental pressure of energy production in GER, NL. The decoupling rates of GER and NL are higher than decoupling rates in RO.
Target: analyse/ verify positive effects of an OECD membership of a country on the environment and the energy production. 3 Key criteria for OECD membership (OECD Strategy for Enlargement and Outreach): open economy, pluralist democracy, and respect for human rights. Identify the potential influence of OECD membership 1

The quality of life changed in a positive way during the time period of the last two decades when renewable energy production experienced an impressive development.

Target: analyse/identify positive effects and dependencies of renewable energy on quality of life in selected countries. Analyse Renewable energy regard.: methods and different sources, characteristics like efficiency of energy production and emissions. Also: limits of energy sources to be taken in consideration in entired analysis or report.
Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Hypo 2: OECD membership (Details)

2
OECD membership of a country is of importance for decoupling the environmental pressure of energy production in Germany and the Netherlands. The decoupling rates of Germany and the Netherlands are higher than decoupling rates in Romania.
OECD member countries GER and NL perform partly better in DEC effect (base: GDP, emissions) compared to the nonOECD member country RO. NL/GER sustained steady reduction in SOx /NOx emissions that exceeds those observed rates in RO. RO performed better regarding the reduction of GHG emissions. Better performance of NL and GER in reducing air pollution occurs not only out of the OECD membership. Additionally the Helsinki Protocol accelerates the environmental oriented politics and decoupling effects. Analysis allows opinion that OECD membership has positive effect on environmental politics and sustainable responsibility of an economy. OECD member countries are active in several organisations, e.g. GER and NL members of the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2013), Helsinki Protocol initiated by the UNECE (UNECE, 2013b). All three countries are member of the UNECE (UNECE, 2013) with environmental policies as one main area of activity. Single relation of the environmental benefits to OECD insufficient. Effects of the different initiatives and activities cannot be separated as they are not independent. Awareness of countries more relevant for the necessity to support environmental global politics of any organisation by changing energy-related processes and consumption. E.g. RO entered EU in 2007, started to apply for and fulfil EU directives and energy policy and legislation. Positive effects are discovered. Fear: high risk for environment will occur out of the development of the new and growing markets, like the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China). Beside Russia (currently non-OECD-member but cooperates with organisation since 1992) none of the BRIICS is organized or supports global environmental programs of e.g. the OECD or IEA. Share of renewable energy of total energy production much lower in BRIICS and Rest-of-world-countries than in the OECDs. Not only the IEA countries but all other countries could benefit from the developments and innovations. Centralized initiatives like IEA ensure the corporation and the bundling of know-how.

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Hypo 2: Effect of economic crisis

2
OECD membership of importance for decoupling the environmental pressure

Fig.: GHG emissions, 1970-2005, (OECD, 2012b: 78).

Fig.: GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050 (OECD, 2012b:25).

Fig.: Commercial energy production by fuel: Baseline, 2010-2050 (OECD, 2012b: 63).

Fig.: Government RD&D expenditures in energy in IEA member countries: 1974-2009 (OECD 2012b:102) Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Decoupling
Decoupling in theory
Separation of two objects/ actions so that they will work or appear independent from each other We studied decoupling between environmental pollution and quality of life Absolute decoupling: economic growth is rising while the environmental pressure decreases or stays at the same level Relative decoupling: environmental pollution is growing but remains below the economic growth rate

Quality of life
Chosen two variables to study objective and subjective appreciation of quality of life Gross Domestic Product, which represents all economic Selected activities in a nation, as variables objective variable. Happiness, represents subjective appreciation of life-as-a whole.

Environmental Pressure
Chosen indicators to study energyrelated decoupling according to OECD (OECD, 2002:13): GHG, SOx and NOx emissions from energy use per unit of GDP. CO2 emissions from electricity generation.

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Selected variables: Details

GHG

SOx

Primary greenhouse gases: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone Kyoto protocol

NOx

Relevant criteria/ figures

Wwinter smog, acidification, adverse effect on human health Emission reduction agreed upon in the Helsinki protocol of the convention of LTRAP GER, NL E.g.: Switch from high sulphur solid and liquid fuels to natural gas/ low-sulphur coal and flue gas desulphuristion

CO2
Kyoto protocol Emission trading/ clean development mechanism/ joint implementation Potential in renewable energy

Gothenburg protocol, emission ceilings per country Combustion modification technologies/ implementation of flue-gas abatement techniques and fuel switching from coal to gas

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09

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Hypo 3: Quality of life and renewable energy

3
The quality of life changed in a positive way during the time period of the last two decades when renewable energy production experienced an impressive development.

Hypothesis can be divided in 2 parts 1. Quality of life changed in a positive way: true, as a rise in GDP is seen in all three countries, and a stagnated or very small rise in happiness 2. Impressive renewable energy development over the last two decades: true, the term impressive can of course always lead to discussion, however a positive trend is seen for energy obtained from renewable sources. This doesnt assign a causal relationship between the 2 parts
share of the total energy production for
1

year

Germany,

The Netherlands and

Romania.

Project LLP nr. 10-EIP-RO BUCURES 09