Death of the Republican Party: or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Hispanic Voters

Jacob Torres COMM334.01 November 12, 2012

Mitt Romney would have won the 2012 presidential election election easily, if it werent for those needy minorities and entitled youth voters. This phrase, which made correspondents sound like unmasked Scooby Doo villains, flooded the airwaves in the wake of the election. Bill OReily was particularly perplexed as he said, with much dismay, the white majority establishment is now the minority. I suspect that when the cameras went off he burst in to tears. Yes Bill, Mitt would have won, had the 15th and 19th amendments not been passed. That is to say, had only white male voters been allowed to vote, Mitt Romney would have won the popular vote by a margin of 34 percent. As New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd points out, Romney overwhelmingly won the election of the country he was wooing, running his campaign in a manner similar to that previous elections. This, however, is the problem that the Republican Party must overcome in order to stay alive in the ever-changing country. Campaigns can no longer be run relying on one demographic. As Mr. OReily points out, its not a traditional America anymore. It is not, and this begs the question of what should the Republican Party do to stay alive and relevant in future elections? First, it is necessary to identify the stuff wanting minority that OReily has brought to our attention. He claims that the Hispanic vote, Black vote, the entitled, and the women vote are the sole cause of the shift in voting. Upon further inspection it is tru that the black vote, which makes up 13 percent of the electorate, swayed overwhelmingly for Barak by a margin of 93 percent. The female vote was closer, although Obama took the demographic by about 10 percent. This is a much larger portion of the electorate, making up 53 percent of all voters. An entitled demographic could not be found during the time of research, however for intensive purposes I will assume he means the youth

vote. Making up just 19 percent of the electorate, the youth voted swung in favor of Obama by a margin of 60-37. Presumably 3 percent went to third parties. This leaves us to inquire about Hispanic vote. The Washington Post claims that the Hispanic electorate is the fastest growing in the nation. Although they make up just 10 percent of the electorate now, for the past 8 years have increased by 1 percent every four years. Early estimates assume that this number will start increasing more dramatically in the coming years, but especially in southern states. The south, predominately Republican, has been doing some soul searching as of late. After discovering that Hispanics voted Democrat by a margin of 3 to 4, inquiries began surfacing as to why this may be. The New Yorker discovered that the Hispanic vote has been swinging in favor of the Democratic ticket for the past 3 election. Furthermore, the Hispanic vote support has shrunk as far back as the Bush campaign. Bush was only able to secure 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, McCain only able to take 31 percent, and now Romney has a diminutive 27 percent. This honey, I shrunk the Hispanic vote mentality is no longer a viable option if one wishes to attain office. Republicans are beginning to realize this. Texas senator elect, Ted Cruz sees a major rift in his party. In an interview with The New Yorker, he stated that Texas has one of the largest growing Hispanic populations. More so, he claims that by 2020 Texas, which by then will be majority Hispanic, has the possibility to become a blue state. His interview, which verges on ghost of Christmas yet to come is meant to be a wake up call to the Republican party. Since Lyndon Johnsons signing of the Civil Rights Act, and his famed there goes the South for a generation quote, Texas has been red, and few can remember a time when it

wasnt. Cruz argues that this is false confidence. Currently the stat is 55 percent traditional minority, with 38 Hispanic, 11 African American, and the rest Asian American. The state is already minority led, however is still largely considered Republican. Furthermore, as Cruz points out, once Texas becomes increasingly Hispanic, the Republican Party could cease to exist. This is a large statement, and needs some unpacking. Once Texas minority population increase, and providing the trends to support the Democratic Party continue the way they have the state of Texas will shift blue. If it shifts bright blue, Texas electoral college votes will go to the Democrat candidate, meaning the G.O.P. will not have enough electoral college votes to even be close to winning the race. In the same way that California and New York are necessary for Democrats to hit the 270 Electoral College votes mark, Texas operates for the G.O.P. Without Texas in its corner, it will be impossible for them to reach that, and the party becomes the next Whig party. This knowledge prompts action of the Republican Party. It calls for research, focus groups, perhaps a rebrand of the party. As the Republican Party looks for more answers, we will focus on the Obama campaign and inquire why and how it manage to clinch both the youth and the minority vote. As stated earlier, Romney was not prepared for the campaign that Obama ran this year. He had very little way of knowing that Barack Obama and his campaign team were running an entirely different race and had been since 2007. While Mitt Romney and his advisors were relying on tried and true methods of polling, targeting, and communicating, Obama and his team began analyzing data, borrowing methods from marketers and psychologists. His data mining gained him greater insight in to how to

best send messages to potential voters. For example, if a person had been on a church website, the next Obama ad they would see could mention family values, and would certainly make no mention of abortion. The Obama campaign spent $100 million investing in technology strategies. This in large part explains his targeted messages, his increase in outreach to minority voters. In a panel held at The Annette Strauss Institute for Civic Life, a 2012 Election Debriefing included a discussion on the increase in Hispanic voters during this election. Dr. Sylvia Manzano, senior project manager for Latino Decisions concluded that although Obama received 3 out of 4 Hispanic voters votes, the reasons for which they voted differed greatly. When asked who their votes are supporting, 39% said Obama, 15% said Romney, while the remaining 36% said they were voting for the Latino Community. Knowing this shifts the argument for the Republican party from, how do we appeal to Latino voters, to how do we identify in a way that Latino voters can identify with as well. This is where Obama was able to capitalize. His targeting, which ran 66,000 simulation a day. The Obama campaign would send out information to people, and if they clicked on it, depending on the message would give deeper insight in to what a person cares for. Tracking cookies will allow the campaign to know that after looking at a womens health blog, voter x visited a Spanish language environmentalist website. This information will be used to figure out how best to get her engaged, as a Spanish speaking women interesting in the environment, and possibly reproductive rights. She will see ads targeted to her demographic, issues that she cares about and will want perhaps increase her likelihood of voting. This type of technology has been used in advertising for years

now, however the level of intricacy that the Obama campaign ran is unheard of. Focus groups were held as early as 2007 to gauge how the President best appeared to the American public. The consensus: as a family man, pictured often with Michelle, his daughters, and his dog. Romney, picked up on this and began using similar tactics, however did not begin doing so until after the primaries, perhaps already too late. First and foremost, if the Republican Party is to campaign efficiently it will need to make better use of technology. The Obama campaign has been synonymous with social media, and for it has received a large portion of the youth vote. The youth, although larger in numbers than any previous election, saw a decline in support for Obama. It is believed to be due to lack of jobs post grads are finding, however research on this issue has not been as well documented as the Hispanic vote. The use of tracking and email has many benefits to the candidate if done properly. For starters, ads and debates have the ability to be fact checked. An email that sits on your computer is not limited in the same way. This can be used ferociously, and I assume will in the future be somewhat restricted. Second, if you are targeting people, your message will be one that resonates with them; in effect you can connect on a greater level making you appear more multi dimensional. This increases likeability, creating a dialogue that extends past the candidate that is seen on TV. The Obama campaign made special use of the dialogue, by having messages from Michelle, Joe, Nancy, everyone, short of Bo. This made the president appear to have a wide range of support, a circle of friends, or intimate conversation. Romney, on the other hand, struggled to improve his likeability throughout the campaign and seemed robotic to many. Having this kind of technologic power is necessary for the Republican Party, struggling with its alienation of

many demographics. Simply appearing likable is a first step in many that need to be done to shift an entire block of voters. The party needs to shift legislation, as well as rhetoric to a more inclusive tone. George W. Bush, had fighting chance numbers amongst the Hispanic community, that if the Republican Party could return to could still put up a fight in future elections. Bush, who was popular largely due to his immigration policies, would today be seen as too lax. This needs to change. Romney lost many votes due to his language toward self-deportation, an phrase that offends many legal Hispanics. Furthermore, it is known that of the eligible Hispanic population, 6 out of 10, know or are related to an illegal alien. This kind of rhetoric does not work in the favor of the party. Simply using the word alien has created disfavor. Furthermore, the spread of Arizona style laws needs to be limited. As Cruz points out, few friends will be made if issues that Hispanics care about are not on the forefront. He estimates that the Republican party will have to work with the Obama administration if they wish to be seen in a positive light. After the terrible defeat, they expect to work on reforming the DREAM act, a move that will likely offer a path to citizenship to millions of immigrants, as an act of good faith and to save face in hopes of winning some votes. Cruz notes that they are fighting from the ropes at this point, if Romney had won, his party would have been able to figure out this vexing issue from a position of strength. Instead, it will have to respond to the Democrats, who are certain to play the tensions within the G.O.P. Karl Rove does not see this in the same light however, and argues that the key to winning the Hispanic vote lies largely in rhetoric and aligning their family values with that of the religious Hispanic population. He wants to align their hard working ethic

with that of the Hispanic population. This, I believe will not work. Though the Hispanic population is overwhelmingly religious, they do not vote from the pulpit. That is to say, their religion does not guide their vote the same way that it does for most. Latino Decisions published a 2012 study saying that of the religious Hispanic voters, just 14 percent agreed that dogma has any place in the voting booth. Furthermore, contrary to Roves belief, Hispanic voters do not often vote conservatively on social issues. When asked their stance on abortion, 74 percent believe a woman has a right to make her own personal, private decisions about abortion without politicians interfering. IN fact, the libertarian party has a better case for seeking the Hispanic vote than does a conservative republican. The Republican Party will likely find few friends in the young Hispanic voter as well, as most seem to support the Affordable Care Act, primarily for reasons of birth control. Young Hispanic teens have the highest birth rate in the country, often because they dont have easier access to contraception. The Republican Party would have to make a fundamental change before they were okay with anything in the last two sentences. In closing, the Republican Party has to make large shifts if it wants to stay alive in the next twenty years. Though the increase in Hispanic population is not a given for the Democratic Party, it has certainly been easier to come by than that of the Republican. The Republican Party needs to work harder earlier, committing itself to a stronger web presence, as well as making better use of the inherent benefits of web targeting. Simply providing more relevant ads will not cut it though, as they need to broadcast legislation that minority voters will see as beneficial to them. This will perhaps be the hardest job for them. There is a large faction of Republican that wants to build a border across

Mexico. Despite being against big government, seizure of property and increasing taxes, some feel a government built fence can solve problems. This will be the hardest sub group to please, as the party umbrella begins to stretch into Mexico. The next few years will be interesting, as the party increases the amount of minority party members in power. Rubio, Cruz, and George P. Bush will vie for poster children of the new Republican Party, in an attempt to seem more inclusive. I look forward to the pandering and strategic marketing with skeptic zeal.

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Lizza, Ryan. "The Party Next Time." The New Yorker. N.p., 19 Nov. 2012. Web. Milligan, Susan. "Why Is GOP Leadership Still So Pale and Male?" US News. U.S.News & World Report, 30 Nov. 2012. Web.

Murphy, Tim. "Political MoJo." Mother Jones. N.p., 15 Oct. 2012. Web. <http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/watch-tim-murphy-talks-politicaldata-mining-democracy-now>. "Presidential Election Results." Msnbc.com. NBC News, 6 Nov. 2012. Web. <http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/>. Weinger, Mckenzie. "The White Establishment Is Now the Minority." POLITICO. N.p., 6 Nov. 2012. Web.