Integrating Economic and Ecological Models For Environmental Decision Making

Integrating Economic and Ecological Models for Environmental Decision Making: a Participatory Community Based Approach
Alexey A.Voinov
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much
Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global Systems approach = everything is connected = everything is more complex than something
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global Systems approach = everything is connected = everything is more complex than something Lots of legacy models
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global Systems approach = everything is connected = everything is more complex than something Lots of legacy models Computers got better
Why Integrate?
Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global Systems approach = everything is connected = everything is more complex than something Lots of legacy models Computers got better Software got better
Integrating What?
Integrated models = models that include ecological, economic, social, etc. processes Model integration = models that are made of other models treated as modules or components
Integrated models
Club of Rome models - World3

(http://www.whole-systems.org/world3.html)
food system (agriculture and food production) industrial system population system non-renewable resources system pollution system.
Integrated models
Club of Rome models - World3

(http://www.whole-systems.org/world3.html)
food system (agriculture and food production) industrial system population system non-renewable resources system pollution system.
Integrated models
Club of Rome models - World3 Global Unied Metamodel of the Biosphere (GUMBO)
(http://ecoinformatics.uvm.edu/projects/the-gumbo-model.html)
Geology Global Climate Sociology Economics Atmosphere Ecosystems
Integrated models
Solar Energy
Natural Capital
Atmosphere
HumanmadeCapital
(includes Built Capital Human Capital, and Social Capital
Ecosystem Services
11 Biomes
Hydrosphere
Biosphere
Human Impacts
Anthroposphere
Lithosphere
From: Boumans, R., R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F.Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. Ecological Economics 41: 529-560
Biosphere
GPP
Autotrophe Respiration
Autotrophs
Consumption
Autotroph net Harvest Autotroph Mortality
DOM spatial exchange
Consumers Dead Organic Matter

Decomposer Growth Consumer Respiration Consumer Mortality Consumer Harvest
Decomposers
Soil formation Decomposer Mortality Decomposer Respiration
Organic Matter Harvested Fossil Fuel Extraction Ore Production Water use
Economic Production
Savings rates
Knowledge Formation Built Capital Formation Social Capital Formation
Ecosystem Goods Production

Social Capital Knowledge Labor Force Built Capital
Economic Production
GOODS & SERVICES
Personal Consumption
WASTE Ecosystem Services Production

Gas Regulation Climate Regulation Soil Formation Plant Nutrient Uptake Disturbance Regulation Waste Assimilation Potential Recreation and Cultural Services
Natural Capital Formation
Well being
Well being from Ecosystem Services
Social Capital Knowledge Built Capital Well being from human made capital
Well being from consumption
Well being
Well being from Ecosystem Goods Well being from waste Fossil Fuel Extraction Fresh Water production Organic Matter Production
Ore Production
Biophysical Variables
Global Temp
23 22 C 21 20 Giga Ton C 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700
Atmospheric Carbon
0.4 0.3
Sea level
12 10 Giga Ton C 8 6 4 2 0
Fossil Fuel extraction
Observations Scenarios Base Case Star Trek (ST) Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET)
meters
0.2 0.1 0.0
10
1000 US Dollars (1998) per person
Socio-economic Variables
trill. 1998 US Dollars 2000 1500 1000 500 0
Knowledge
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Knowledge per capita
1000 US Dollars (1998) per person
trill. 1998 US Dollars
8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Built Capital
800 600 400 200 0
Built capital per capita
4.0 Social Capital Index (SCI) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Social Network
SCI per billion people
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Social network per capita
Scenarios Base Case Star Trek (ST) Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET)
1900
1950
2000 Year
2050
2100
1900
1950
2000 Year
2050
2100 11
Integrated models
Club of Rome models - World3 Global Unied Metamodel of the Biosphere (GUMBO) Threshold 21 (T21) - Millennium Institute
(http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/integrated_planning/tools/T21)
18 sectors: 6 social sectors, 6 economic sectors, and 6 environmental sectors more than a thousand equations, about 60 stock variables, and several thousands feedback loops
Integrated models
Integrated models
T21 validation
T21 validation
Model integration
One model cannot be sufcient to represent all the details needed for decision making and planning
Model integration
One model cannot be sufcient to represent all the details needed for decision making and planning Legacy models that can be reused as building blocks for more complex systems
Model integration
One model cannot be sufcient to represent all the details needed for decision making and planning Legacy models that can be reused as building blocks for more complex systems Linking problem matching the variables, scales and resolutions
Model integration
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Suite

Airshed Model - 12 km grid CMAQ Phase 5 Watershed Model - 308 land segments, 17 land use types, 930 rivers running HSPF Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) with additions of lter feeders, SAV, sh, etc.
Model integration
http://www.chesapeakebay.net/committee_msc_info.aspx
Decision Support System

Airshed Model, Land Change Model, Data Watershed Model Bay Model
100 90 80
Criteria Assessment Procedures

CFD Curve
Percent of Time
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Area of Criteria Exceedence Area of Allowable Criteria Exceedence
Percent of Space
Effects
Allocations
Model integration
SEAMLESS - System for Environmental and Agricultural Modeling: Linking European Science and Society
Combining micro and macro level analysis, addressing economic, environmental and social issues, and facilitating the re-use of models and providing methods to conceptually and technically link different models http://www.seamless-ip.org/
Model integration
Model integration
Model linking: architectures
US EPA - FRAMES (Framework for Risk Analysis in Multi-media Environmental Systems) - system to manage the execution and data ow among science modules 3MRA (Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Analysis) - 17 modules that describe the release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk (human and ecological) associated with contaminants deposited in various land-based waste management units (e.g., landlls, waste piles) FRAMES was developed as the framework that would allow these modules to communicate with each other
US EPA - FRAMES (Framework for Risk Analysis in Multi-media Environmental Systems) - system to manage the execution and data ow among science modules 3MRA (Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Analysis) - 17 modules that describe the release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk (human and ecological) associated with contaminants deposited in various land-based waste management units (e.g., landlls, waste piles) FRAMES was developed as the framework that would allow these modules to communicate with each other
The Open Modeling Interface and Environment (OpenMI) - a consortium of European universities and private companies, is a standard for model linkage in the water domain. Denes an interface that allows time-dependent models to exchange data at runtime. Helps to link models from different domains (hydraulics, hydrology, ecology, water quality, economics etc.), environments (atmospheric, freshwater, marine, terrestrial, urban, rural, etc.), different scales, resolutions, platforms, etc. Models can talk to each other at runtime.
Common Component Architecture (CCA) developed by the DOE and Lawrence Livermore National Lab (Bernholdt, 2004) CCA targets high performance computers and complex sophisticated models CCA supports parallel and distributed computing as well as local high-performance connections between components in a language-independent manner. CCA is applied in a variety of disciplines, including combustion research, global climate simulation, and computational chemistry.
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use Why are we building these models?
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use Why are we building these models? How did we choose the scale? the resolution? the complexity?
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use Why are we building these models? How did we choose the scale? the resolution? the complexity? Who will understand the model?
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use Why are we building these models? How did we choose the scale? the resolution? the complexity? Who will understand the model? Who are the users?
Where are we?
The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better than we can use Why are we building these models? How did we choose the scale? the resolution? the complexity? Who will understand the model? Who are the users? Did we ask them what they need?
Research models
User models
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate Calibrated, validated
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate Calibrated, validated Serving science and research
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate Calibrated, validated Serving science and research All-including
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate Calibrated, validated Serving science and research All-including Top-Down
Research models
User models
Detailed and accurate Calibrated, validated Serving science and research All-including Top-Down The best model is the best calibrated model
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant Trusted
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant Trusted Serving education, understanding, and decision-making
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant Trusted Serving education, understanding, and decision-making Flexible and transparent
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant Trusted Serving education, understanding, and decision-making Flexible and transparent Bottom-up
Research models
User models
Simple and relevant Trusted Serving education, understanding, and decision-making Flexible and transparent Bottom-up The best model is the most used one
Who are the stakeholders?
Democracies poorly handle emergencies
Less concern about environment and climate change
Pew Research Center: http://people-press.org/report/485/economy-top-policy-priority

Who is responsible?
Forty-four percent (44%) of U.S. voters now say long-term planetary trends are the cause of global warming, compared to 41% who blame it on human activity. Seven percent (7%) attribute global warming to some other reason, and nine percent (9%) are unsure In July 2006, 46% of voters said global warming is caused primarily by human activities, while 35% said it is due to long-term planetary trends.
Democracies poorly handle emergencies
Democracies poorly handle emergencies "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know" - M. King Hubbert
Democracies poorly handle emergencies "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know" - M. King Hubbert 20 years of climate change neglect and climate research denial
Democracies poorly handle emergencies "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know" - M. King Hubbert 20 years of climate change neglect and climate research denial For public policy to be grounded in the hard-won results of climate science, we must now turn our attention to the dynamics of social and political change - J. Sterman
Democracies poorly handle emergencies "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know" - M. King Hubbert 20 years of climate change neglect and climate research denial For public policy to be grounded in the hard-won results of climate science, we must now turn our attention to the dynamics of social and political change - J. Sterman What are the right models to support that?
Complex: Global Circulation (Climate) Models (GCM)

The atmospheric component calculates winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, surface hydrology, and surface uxes of heat and moisture within each grid and evaluates interactions with neighboring points. The ocean component calculates currents, heat content and salinity. The atmospheric and oceanic components interact, for example with evaporation from the oceans into the atmosphere and with atmospheric winds affecting ocean currents. Different models vary in such basics as grid size and therefore do not give the same results.
GCM
Alexey Voinov - ChanGes - Global Change Science and Policy - Venice, 2009 32
Simple: Climate Rapid Overview and Decision-support Simulator C-ROADS
http://www.climateinteractive.org/simulations/CROADS Climate Interactive Community: http://scripts.mit.edu/~jfmartin/sip/master/
Simple: Climate Rapid Overview and Decision-support Simulator C-ROADS
Simple: C-ROADS
Even simpler: Positive feedback effects
Higher temperature Melting ice Albedo decrease Higher temperature
Higher temperature Melting ice Albedo decrease Higher temperature Higher temperature Melting of permafrost Swamps emit CH4 More GHG Higher temperatures
Higher temperature Melting ice Albedo decrease Higher temperature Higher temperature Melting of permafrost Swamps emit CH4 More GHG Higher temperatures Higher temperature Faster plant growth More respiration More CO2 More GHG Higher temperatures
Higher temperature Melting ice Albedo decrease Higher temperature Higher temperature Melting of permafrost Swamps emit CH4 More GHG Higher temperatures Higher temperature Faster plant growth More respiration More CO2 More GHG Higher temperatures Higher temperature More forest res More CO2 More GHG Higher temperatures
New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible

Changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped Some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results would include persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable to the 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe, northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and western Australia Increases in CO2 that occur in this century lock in sea level rise that would slowly follow in the next 1,000 years. Considering just the expansion of warming ocean waterswithout melting glaciers and polar ice sheets the irreversible global average sea level rise by the year 3000 would be at least 0.41.0 meter if CO2 peaks at 600 parts per million, and double that amount if CO2 peaks at 1,000 parts per million.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090126_climate.html
Challenges and opportunities
Challenges and opportunities
Failures of governance Systems are highly complex There is no one correct, value neutral solution Many more regulatory decisions end up in court Need to reinforce the process with local knowledge and iterative participatory interactions
Our limiting factor today is communication We need to learn to speak the same language Models can help if used to communicate
39
Participatory modeling
Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared vision planning
Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared vision planning Participatory modeling is the process of incorporating stakeholders, often including the public, and decisionmakers into the modeling process to support decisions involving complex environmental questions
Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared vision planning Participatory modeling is the process of incorporating stakeholders, often including the public, and decisionmakers into the modeling process to support decisions involving complex environmental questions More open and integrated planning processes is a way to avoid potential conict, misunderstanding and even litigation
Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared vision planning Participatory modeling is the process of incorporating stakeholders, often including the public, and decisionmakers into the modeling process to support decisions involving complex environmental questions More open and integrated planning processes is a way to avoid potential conict, misunderstanding and even litigation A platform for integrating scientic knowledge with local knowledge
Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared vision planning Participatory modeling is the process of incorporating stakeholders, often including the public, and decisionmakers into the modeling process to support decisions involving complex environmental questions More open and integrated planning processes is a way to avoid potential conict, misunderstanding and even litigation A platform for integrating scientic knowledge with local knowledge Goal driven
Participatory modeling is best when there is conict
Let's model together A model as a tool for deliberations and consensus Modeling process is transparent and open for review The process is more important than the result
Stakeholder Input
What are the alternatives that are feasible from the stakeholder viewpoint? What can be incentives to implement them? What factors, processes, conditions we may be missing in our models? What models to use?
Stakeholder Input
What are the alternatives that are feasible from the stakeholder viewpoint? What can be incentives to implement them? What factors, processes, conditions we may be missing in our models? What models to use?
How much detail is justied?
Complex models are hard to communicate Complex models are hard to trust Is knowing the trend more important than knowing the exact numbers? Who really makes the decision about the model to use? Who takes the responsibility? The $1 mln. question: How do we communicate what we already know?
Community modeling approach
A community modeling system is an open-source suite of modeling components coupled in a framework
A community modeling system is an open-source suite of modeling components coupled in a framework Emerges through the collective efforts of a community of individuals that develop, code, debug, test, document, run, and apply the modeling system
A community modeling system is an open-source suite of modeling components coupled in a framework Emerges through the collective efforts of a community of individuals that develop, code, debug, test, document, run, and apply the modeling system Should include both developers and users, and distributed among different institutions and organizations.
First generation: - EPAs Models-3 System, - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) - Pennsylvania State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)
Proof of concept: freely available, portable, welldocumented models are enthusiastically received by the broader community as research tools
Next generation: - Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the successor to CCM. Was part of IPCC assessments - Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, the successor to MM5 - Community Surface Dynamic Modeling System (CSDMS; http://csdms.colorado.edu - NSF) - Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS; http://www.cmascenter.org/ - EPA) - Chesapeake Community Model Program (CCMP; http://ccmp.chesapeake.org - NOAA) - Community Sediment-Transport Model System (CSTMS; http://www.cstms.org - NOPP)
Community modeling advantages
Integration of effort between multiple institutions, which is crucial because models are too multidisciplinary and complex
Integration of effort between multiple institutions, which is crucial because models are too multidisciplinary and complex Continuity and more project robustness in face of uncertain funding and institutional support
Integration of effort between multiple institutions, which is crucial because models are too multidisciplinary and complex Continuity and more project robustness in face of uncertain funding and institutional support Cuts redundancy because new models can be built upon already existing concepts, data, algorithms, and code
Integration of effort between multiple institutions, which is crucial because models are too multidisciplinary and complex Continuity and more project robustness in face of uncertain funding and institutional support Cuts redundancy because new models can be built upon already existing concepts, data, algorithms, and code Scientists work with software engineers, helping to bridge the cultural and, often, institutional gap
Integration of effort between multiple institutions, which is crucial because models are too multidisciplinary and complex Continuity and more project robustness in face of uncertain funding and institutional support Cuts redundancy because new models can be built upon already existing concepts, data, algorithms, and code Scientists work with software engineers, helping to bridge the cultural and, often, institutional gap Essential link to the user community, offering much needed transparency and input at early stages of the project and during the testing phase. More users provide better testing and wider acceptance of results.
Community modeling challenges
Scientic reward structure is skewed toward publications and away from technical contributions
Scientic reward structure is skewed toward publications and away from technical contributions Funding is discontinuous, and not reliably available for long-term support of technical infrastructure
Scientic reward structure is skewed toward publications and away from technical contributions Funding is discontinuous, and not reliably available for long-term support of technical infrastructure Intellectual property policies of universities and private companies are not always compatible. Software is often viewed as a competitive advantage
Scientic reward structure is skewed toward publications and away from technical contributions Funding is discontinuous, and not reliably available for long-term support of technical infrastructure Intellectual property policies of universities and private companies are not always compatible. Software is often viewed as a competitive advantage Interdisciplinary communication among scientists, engineers, users, and decision-makers. All are important segments of the modeling community, but each has its own culture, vocabulary, and objectives
Community modeling recommendations
Code should be open source and meet a minimum level of standards or protocols as a requirement for receiving government funds
Code should be open source and meet a minimum level of standards or protocols as a requirement for receiving government funds Allow communities to have a say in disbursement of funding. Community programs provide much needed transparency and can be instrumental in deciding on funding priorities and focal areas
Code should be open source and meet a minimum level of standards or protocols as a requirement for receiving government funds Allow communities to have a say in disbursement of funding. Community programs provide much needed transparency and can be instrumental in deciding on funding priorities and focal areas Require that models, code and documentation be accessible always during development
Code should be open source and meet a minimum level of standards or protocols as a requirement for receiving government funds Allow communities to have a say in disbursement of funding. Community programs provide much needed transparency and can be instrumental in deciding on funding priorities and focal areas Require that models, code and documentation be accessible always during development Provide stable funding of software architects and engineers on par with the technical staff support in labs
Code should be open source and meet a minimum level of standards or protocols as a requirement for receiving government funds Allow communities to have a say in disbursement of funding. Community programs provide much needed transparency and can be instrumental in deciding on funding priorities and focal areas Require that models, code and documentation be accessible always during development Provide stable funding of software architects and engineers on par with the technical staff support in labs Support repositories of models and software and enforce standards among themselves.
"What theory and science is possible about a matter the conditions and circumstances of which are unknown and cannot be dened, especially when the strength of the acting forces cannot be ascertained? ... What science can there be in a matter in which, as in all practical matters, nothing can be dened and everything depends on innumerable conditions, the signicance of which is determined at a particular moment which arrives no one knows when?" Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, Book 9, ch.11

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Integrating Economic and Ecological Models for Environmental Decision Making: a Participatory Community Based Approach

Too many of us and we want too much

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Too many of us and we want too much The impact is global

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 2

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 3

Club of Rome models - World3

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 4

Club of Rome models - World3

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 4

Geology Global Climate Sociology Economics Atmosphere Ecosystems

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 5

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 6

Autotroph net Harvest Autotroph Mortality

DOM spatial exchange

Consumers Dead Organic Matter

Ecosystem Goods Production

GOODS & SERVICES

WASTE Ecosystem Services Production

Natural Capital Formation

Well being from consumption

Fossil Fuel extraction

0.2 0.1 0.0

1000 US Dollars (1998) per person

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Knowledge per capita

1000 US Dollars (1998) per person

trill. 1998 US Dollars

8000 6000 4000 2000 0

800 600 400 200 0

Built capital per capita

4.0 Social Capital Index (SCI) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Social network per capita

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 12

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 13

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 13

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 14

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 14

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 15

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 15

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 15

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Suite

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 16

Decision Support System

Criteria Assessment Procedures

Area of Criteria Exceedence Area of Allowable Criteria Exceedence

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 17

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Model linking: architectures

Model linking: architectures

Model linking: architectures

Model linking: architectures

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 22

Model linking: architectures

Model linking: architectures

Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009 24