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Overview
The last five years have seen considerable volatility in global equity
markets. Unsurprisingly this has led to a certain wariness on the part of many investors with regard to equities.
1 Source: Demystifying Equity Risk-Based Strategies: a simple Alpha plus Beta description, Raul Leote de Carvalho, Xiao Lu, Pierre Moulin, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 38, No. 3, Copyright 2012, Institutional Investor, Inc., published in final form at: http://www.iijournals.com/toc/jpm/38/3
French broker Jules Regnault in 1863 and French mathematician Louis Bachelier in 1900, assume that high-volatility stocks should have a higher return to compensate for the bigger risk. CAPM, a model for pricing individual securities or a portfolio, was developed in the early 1960s by several people, among whom William Sharpe, Harry Markowitz and Merton Miller jointly won a Nobel prize in economics. Under CAPM, the sensitivity of the price of an asset to the general market is called beta. In the 1990s, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French refined the approach and detailed the components of beta. They found that portfolios tilted towards value stocks of small capitalisations outperformed the market capitalisation portfolio5. The classic models are still in use in mainstream asset allocation and market pricing. Yet the data do not always fit these models. Rather than trying to find a super model that better fits the data, Haugen and others started to exploit the low-volatility anomaly. We now offer you this opportunity via an approach developed by our financial engineers that aims to meet investors needs in todays equity markets delivering, over time, equity-like returns at lower levels of risk.
existed over the period from 1926 to 1993, and our own work extends that to 2011. The classical asset-pricing model (CAPM) and the underlying efficient market hypothesis, with roots going back to work by
1 There is no guarantee that the performance objective will be achieved. Past performance or achievement is not indicative of current or future performance. 2 Source: Demystifying Equity Risk-Based Strategies: a simple Alpha plus Beta description, Raul Leote de Carvalho, Xiao Lu, Pierre Moulin, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 38, No. 3, Copyright 2012, Institutional Investor, Inc., published in final form at: http://www.iijournals.com/toc/jpm/38/3 3 Source: On the Evidence Supporting the Existence of Risk Premiums in the Capital Market, Robert A. Haugen and A. James Heins, Wisconsin working Paper Dec. 1972. 4 Source: R. Haugen, and Nardin Baker (1991), The Efficient Market Inefficiency of Capitalization-Weighted Stock Portfolios, Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 17, No.1, pp. 3540, see also Baker, N. and R. Haugen (2012) Low Risk Stocks Outperform within All Observable Markets of the World. Chan, L., J. Karceski, and J. Lakonishok (1999), On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model, Review of Financial Studies, 12, pp. 937974. 5 Source: Fama, Eugene F.; French, Kenneth R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics
Prove it!
William Sharpe invented and gave his name to the Sharpe ratio in 1966 and refined it in 1994. The ratio measures how well the return of an asset compensates the investor for the risk taken. The higher the ratio, the better it is. Our quantitative analysts have looked at the stocks in the MSCI World index of a thousand shares, over the period from January 1995 to December 2010. Thus, our research described above indicates a much better They looked at the volatility of the shares and put them in five equally-weighted groups from low-vol to high-vol. Exhibit 1: Sharpe Ratio of stocks ranked by volatility into equally weighted quintiles (Global Universe: Jan 1994 - Dec 2010)
0.70 0.60 Sharpe Ratio 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 1 2 3 4 5
These five groups are shown in exhibit 1 below. The lowvolatility group had an average volatility of 13.9%, over half that of the highest volatility group (27.4%). The Sharpe ratio of the low-vol group, at 0.61, was almost twice that of the highest group. The excess return over the cash rate was at 8.6% somewhat lower than the 9.4% of the highest volatility group, but above groups two and four.
Lower volatility
Source: BNP Paribas AM, MSCI, Exshare
Higher volatility
Minimum variance (MV) Portfolio seeks lowest ex-ante volatility Maximum diversification (MD)
Portfolio maximises the diversification ratio to spread risk
Equal risk contribution (ERC) The weights are chosen so that the risk contribution
is the same
A closer look at these strategies (see exhibits 2 and 3 below) shows that they are closely related and that they are sub-optimal.
The volatility anomaly explains most of the tracking error risk and excess returns, but the strategies were not designed specifically to fully exploit the anomaly.
Exhibit 2: Risk characteristics of first generation risk-based portfolio construction strategies Mkt Excess return over RF Volatility Sharpe ratio Excess return over BM Tracking error Information ratio Beta Maximum Drawdown Annual turnover -56% 10% 2.1% 18.1% 0.12 EW 5.7% 18.2% 0.31 3.6% 5.1% 0.70 0.96 -58% 39% ERB 5.9% 16.5% 0.36 3.8% 5.4% 0.70 0.87 -55% 37% ERC 5.6% 14.8% 0.38 3.5% 6.6% 0.52 0.81 -53% 58% MV long only 5.2% 9.9% 0.52 3.1% 13.1% 0.23 0.39 -29% 151% MD long only 4.8% 11.5% 0.41 2.6% 12.1% 0.22 0.48 -39% 162% MV 6.3% 9.1% 0.70 4.2% 15.2% 0.28 0.27 -22% 220% MD 6.2% 10.8% 0.58 4.1% 14.5% 0.28 0.36 -31% 296%
Source: R Leote de Carvalho, X Lu and P Moulin, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2012, Vol. 38, No. 3
Exhibit 3: Correlation of excess returns over MSCI World Index (Period dating from Jan-1997 to Dec-2010) EW EW ERB ERC MD long only MV long only
Source: R Leote de Carvalho, X Lu and P Moulin, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2012, Vol. 38, No. 3
100%
We believe that:
Low-volatility stocks offer higher Sharpe ratios. Investors should select a priori the stocks with
portfolios is not the only way to address the high tracking error problem generally observed
Using the fund to complement or substitute the market cap index in portfolios could:
Lower the overall risk Improve risk-adjusted returns over the long term
For a complete description and definition of risks, please consult the last available prospectus of the fund. The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay.
1 BNP Paribas L1 Equity World Low Volatility is a Compartment of the BNP Paribas L1 UCITS IV Compliant SICAV registered under the Luxembourg law. The fund is exposed as appropriate and including but not limited to the following risks: Credit, liquidity, volatility, currency and interest rate risk, the financial condition of the underlying obligors, general economic conditions, market price volatility, the condition of certain financial markets, political events and developments or trends in any particular industry. 2 These internal guidelines are mentioned for your information only and are subject to change. Prospectus guidelines are leading. 3 BNP Paribas Investment Partners doesnt provide any formal capital protection of the fund. No information given or any term used herein shall be interpreted to provide such protection.
We believe that CAPM will remain the dominant portfolio construction model and attract the lions share of invested capital. Human behaviour is not easily changed, so many investors are likely to continue chasing risky stocks in the hope of quick returns. We expect the low volatility anomaly will be around for many years to come.
Where can I get more information? Your dedicated sales contact at THEAM will be happy to provide you with further information.
References Carvalho, R.L., Lu X., Moulin P., Demystifying Equity RiskBased Strategies: A Simple Alpha plus Beta Description, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2012 Vol. 38, No. 3 http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jpm.2012.2012.1.023 Ang, A., R. J. Hodrick, Y. Xing, and X. Zhang. The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 61, No. 1 (2006), pp. 259-299. Baker, M., B. Bradley, and J. Wurgler. Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low Volatility Anomaly. Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 67, No. 1 (2011) pp. 40-54. Blitz, D. C., and P. van Vliet. The Volatility Effect. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 34, No. 1 (2007) pp. 102-113. Clarke, R., H. de Silva, and S. Thorley. Minimum-Variance Portfolio Composition. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 37, No. 2 (2011) pp. 31-45. Choueifaty, Y., and Y. Coignard. Towards Maximum Diversification. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 34, No. 4 (2008) pp. 40-51. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French. The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 2, (1992) pp. 42765. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French. The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 3 (2004) pp. 25-46. Haugen, R., and N. Baker. The Efficient Market Inefficiency of Capitalization-Weighted Stock Portfolios. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 17, No. 3 (1991) pp. 35-40. Maillard, S., T. Roncalli, and J. Teiletche. The Properties of Equally-weighted Risk Contributions Portfolios. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 36, No. 4 (2010) pp. 60-70. Markowitz, H. Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1 (1952) pp. 7791. Sharpe, W. F. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, No. 3 (1964) pp. 425-442. Sharpe, W. F. A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis. Management Science, Vol. 9, No. 2 (1963) pp. 277-293.
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