Process control Concepts through statistics

Statistics: help to make a judgement of the properties of large quantities by evaluation of the results obtained from a function of the whole the so called representative random sample. Variable: whenever the quality characteristic can be measured and expressed as a quantity of length, weight, dia etc., the quality characteristic is said to be expressed as variable. Attribute: whenever the quality characteristic can be expressed only as good or bad or conforming or not conforming, then it is said to be expressed as an attribute. Frequency: is the number or times a particular value of a variable repeats itself in a given set of data. EX : 1,2,2,4,4,4,4,5,6,6,7,8,9,10 From the above data we see that 2 is appearing twice hence frequency is 2 4 is appearing four times hence frequency is 4 6 is appearing twice hence frequency is 2 Arithmetic mean: is the sum of values in a distribution divided by the number of values. It is one of the common measures of central tendency.

x + x + x3 + + xn X = 1 2 n
EX : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10 AM, X =
5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 8 + 9 + 10 7 = 7.57

x
i =1

Median: another measure of central tendency. It divides an ordered set into two equal groups, half of the numbers will have values that are less than the median and half will have values greater than the median, for e.g. if we have 7 boys with marks in English 28,31,27,45,43,52,38 then median of the marks obtained by those boys can be found by ranking the marks & taking the 4th fig. in order of the magnitude i.e., 27,28,31, 38,43,45,52 median will be 38. EX: 5 , 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10 Median is 8

Mode: the mode of a set of numbers is that value which occurs with the greatest frequency. More precisely it is the value of the variable at which the concentration of the observation is the densest. It is possible for the mode to be non-existent in a series of numbers or to have more than one value i.e., it could be unimodel, bimodel or multimodel. EX : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10 Mode = 8

Range: the range of a series of numbers is the difference between the largest & smallest values of observations. R=X high X low Ex : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10 Range = 10 5 = 5

Geometric mean: is the nth root of the product of all values of a series of numbers.
G = n x1 x 2 x3 x n

G n = x1 x 2 x3 x n

Geometric mean is always smaller than the arithmetic mean. Ex : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10

G = 7 5 * 6 * 7 * 8 * 8 * 9 * 10

G = 7.39 Standard deviation: it is a measure of dispersion and is the one most commonly used. It is the square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of deviations of all observations in a lot from their arithmetic mean. This is also called lot standard deviation ().

( x
n i =1

Ex : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10
X

= 7.57

( 5 7.57 ) 2 + ( 6 7.57 ) 2 + ( 7 7.57 ) 2 + ( 8 7.57) 2 + ( 8 7.57) 2 + ( 9 7.57 ) 2 + (10 7.57 ) 2

7

= 1.59 Sample standard deviation ( S ) : the square root of the quotient obtained by dividing the sum of squares of deviations of the observations from their mean by one less than the number of observations in the sample.

S=

( x
n i =1

n 1

Ex : 5,6,7,8,8,9,10
X

= 7.57

S=

( 5 7.57 ) 2 + ( 6 7.57 ) 2 + ( 7 7.57 ) 2 + ( 8 7.57 ) 2 + ( 8 7.57 ) 2 + ( 9 7.57 ) 2 + (10 7.57 ) 2

7 1

S = 1.718 Variance: is the square of a standard deviation. 2 = (1.718) 2 = 2.95

Defective item: an item, the quality of which does not meet specified requirements. Defect: failure to meet the requirement imposed on an item with respect to a single characteristic. When the number of defects in an item exceeds a specified limit, the item turns out to be defective.

Frequency distribution: frequency distribution may be defined as a tabulation or tally of the number of times a given quality characteristic measurement occurs within the sample of product being checked. a). Line diagram: the simplest method of representing a discrete series graphically is the line or bar diagram. The magnitude of the item is plotted on the horizontal axis and the frequency is plotted on the vertical axis. F R E Q U E N C Y 2520151055 10 15 20 25 30 35

SIZE OF ITEMS

b). Histograms: this is another graphical method of portraying frequency distribution of both continuous and discrete types. In this case, the class boundaries are plotted along the horizontal axis and the frequencies on the vertical axis. The upper ends of the vertical lines are joined.
N o . o f E m p l o y e e s

20015010050-

Frequency Polygon

Frequency Curve

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Wage Group (Rs.) c. Frequency polygon: if instead of setting up a separate rectangle for each class we connect the ends of the vertical lines, representing the frequency in each class, set at midpoints or class intervals, and connect the ends of vertical lines, the curve so constructed would better indicate the nature of variations in character or size of the variable under consideration. The graph so constructed is known as frequency polygon. d) Frequency curves: if instead of joining up the vertical lines by straight lines a free hand curve is drawn to fit into the histogram in a manner that it passes through the tops of rectangular blocks of the histograms excluding approximately as much area of the rectangular blocks as the area outside the histograms has been included therein, the diagram so constructed would be known as the frequency curve. Probability concept: A probability generally refers to totality of possible occurrences. Probability is the relative frequency. The probability of an event 'A' is the relative frequency of occurrence of the event 'A' in all possible occurrences of events.
P ( A) = No. of successful cases s = n Total no. of possible cases

Events: there are two types of statistical events.

a. Simple event: this type of event cannot be broken down into further sub events. b. Compound event: this event can be further broken down into sub events. E.g., Consider two 6-sided dices- dice A & dice B. In this case, getting say 1, in dice A or B is a simple event, which, getting a combined total, say 6 on the two dices is a single compound event. i) Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one precludes the occurrence of the other for e.g. tossing a coin results in 2 mutually exclusive events (heads or tails) getting a head implies not getting a tail. ii). Two events are said to be independent of each other when occurrence of first does not in any way affect the occurrence of the second for e.g. if a coin is tossed twice in succession getting a head for the first time does not affect the second throw & its still possible to get a head or a tail.

LAWS OF PROBABILITY:

a) Addition law: If the events are mutually exclusive that is, only one event can occur at a time, and if the probability of occurrence of one event is P 1 & the second event is P 2 then the probability of occurrence P of first or second event is P1+P2 i.e., P = P1+P2 EX 1 : If a bag contains 50 red balls then probability of picking a red ball is
P 1 = 50 = 0 .5 100

And probability picking a black ball

P2 = 50 = 0.5 100

Therefore probability occurrence of first or second events is P = 0.5+0.5 = 1 i.e. 100% EX 2:The probability of obtaining one defective in a sample of 5 is 0.08 and the probability of obtaining 2 defectives is 0.03 The probability of obtaining one or 2 defectives in a sample of 5 is as follows : Assume that the probability of obtaining one defective in an event A, i,e P(A) = 0.08 The probability of obtaining 2 defectives in an event B , i,e P(B) = 0.03 The probability of occurrence of either A or B is given by P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.03 + 0.08 = 0.11

b) Multiplication law: when the events are mutually independent the probability of the events occurring together or in a particular order is given by the product of individual probabilities of the events. EX 1: With 4 dice the probability that all dice will show odd no. In this case in each dice there are 3 odd nos. (1,3,5) & 3 even nos. (2,4,6) Therefore probability of occurrence of odd no. in each
Dice = 3 = 0.5 6

And probability that all-4 dice will show odd no. is 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625 Ex 2 : During 500 hrs of operation of an amplifier the probability of the transistor failing is 5% and that of diode is 9% what is the probability of the failure of both during 500 hrs of operation. Assume that the probability of the failure of the transistor is an event A i,e P(A) = 0.05 The probability of the failure of the diode in an event B i,e P(B) = 0.09 The probability of failure of both of them is given by P(A.B) = P(A) * P(B) = 0.05 * 0.09 = 0.0045 Probability distribution function: is a mathematical formula that relates the values of the characteristic with their probability of occurrence in the population. The collection of these probabilities is called a probability distribution. Distributions are of 2 types a). Continuous (for variables, data) b). Discrete (for attributes data) i). Continuous data (variable): a basic characteristic of continuous data is that it is infinite. When the characteristics being measured can take on any value (subject to the fineness of the measuring process), its probability distribution is called a continuous probability distribution. Experience has shown that most continuous characteristics follow one of several common probability distributions i.e., a. the normal distribution b. the exponential distribution c. the weibull distribution ii). Discrete data (attributes): basic property of discrete data is that it is finite. When the characteristics being measured can take on only certain specific values (e.g., integers 0,1,2,3, etc.) its probability distribution is called a discrete probability distribution. The common discrete distributions are:

a. Poissons distribution b. Binomial distribution

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

( - 3) ( - 2) ( - 1)

68.26% 95.46% 99.73%

( + 1) ( + 2) ( + 3)

The normal distribution curve is called the normal curve and is of the familiar bell shape. Most of the populations observed in real life do approximate the normal population curve & 3 limits have been accepted to contain 99.73% of the population. If x is a normal random variable, then the probability distribution of x is
1 f ( x) = e 2 2 1 x
2

< x <

e = 2.718 = 3.141 = Population mean = Population standard deviation f(x) = ordinate of the normal curve The most important properties associated with the normal curve are a). The average & b)The standard deviation. The peak of the curve is at the average value of the variables & the area between 3 spread symmetrically around the mean contains 99.73% of the populations. Making pre-directions using normal probability distribution by calculating the area under the curve. The total area under a normal curve is 1.0

The area from - to any variable x can be got by calculating Z & referring to the table.
Z = x

x = Value of random variable = Mean of the distribution = Std. deviation of the distribution Z = No. of std. deviation from x to the mean of distribution EX 1: From past experience, a manufacturer concludes that the burn out time of a particular bulb follows a normal distribution. A sample of 50 bulbs has been tested & the average life is found to be 60 days with a std. deviation of 20 days. How many bulbs in the entire population of light bulbs can be expected to be still working after 100 days of life? Solution:

60 100 The area beyond 100 days is the probability that the bulb will last more than 100 days.
Z = x

Z =

100 60 20

=2

From Table - Area under the normal curve for Z=2, probability = 1- 0.9773

Thus, the probability that the bulb will last more than 100 days = 0.0227 or 2.27 % i.e., 2.27 % of the bulb in the population will still be working after 100 days.

EX 2 : The width of a board lock is normally distributed with mean 10cms and = 0.03 cm a) What %age of the board locks will have the width exceeding 10.075 b) Below what value of width will 15% of the board locks fall. a). % age of Specimen falling below 10.075 is
x 10.075 10 = 2.5 0.03

Z =

= 10 10.075 = 0.03 From the Table Area under the normal curve for Z = 2.5 the probability is 1- 0.9938 The %age of specimen above 10.075 = 0.0062 * 100 = 0.62 %
x x 10 0.03

b).

Z =

( 1.04) 0.03 = x 10
x = -0.0312 +10 = 9.96 cm.

15 % = 10

Note : In this case since the probability of board locks falling below a= certain 0.03 value is given we can find the Z value. For Probability of 0.1515 value of Z is 1.04.

EX 3 : The mean weight of stamped contact reel is 9.07 kgs with a Standard deviation of 0.4 kg.If the distribution is approximately normal. Determine the %age of reels with a) Less than 8.3 kgs b) Greater than 10 kgs c) between 8 and 10 a) % age of reels less than 8.3 kgs is
Z = x

8.3 9.07 = 1.92 0.4

8.3

= 9.07 = 0.40

From the normal tables the probability is From the Table Area under the normal curve for Z= -1.92 ,probability is 0.0274 i,e is 2.74 % of the reels will have weight less than 8.3 kgs b) Greater than 10 Kg % age of reels falling below 10 kgs is
Z = x

10 9.07 = 2.32 0.4

= 9.07 = 0.40

10

From the Table Area under the normal curve for Z = 2.32 the probability is 1-0.9898 = 0.0102 The %age of reels above 10 kgs = 0.0102 *100 = 1.02 %

c) Between 8 and 10 kgs % age of reels falling below 8 kgs is = 9.07 10 = 0.40 From the table Area under the normal curve the probability is 1- 0.0038 = 0.9962 i,e 99.62 %

Z = x = 8 9.07 = 2.67 0.4

% of reels below 10 kgs is

Z =

10 9.07 = 2.32 0.4

From table Area under the normal curve for Z=2.32 the probability is 0.0102 i,e 1.02 % The %age of reels falling between 8 and 10 kgs is = 99.62 % - 1.02% = 98.60 % BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Binomial distribution can be used; if following conditions are fulfilled.

1. There are only 2 possible outcomes for each trial, arbitrarily called success (e.g., obtaining a defective) and failure, (e.g., not obtaining a defective) without inferring that a success is necessarily a desirable outcome. 2. The probability of success (p) the same is constant from trial to trial. It will be denoted by the letter p & hence probability of failure (1-p)=q 3. There are n different trials 4. The n trials are independent The probability of r success in n trials
r nr n! y( r ) = r!( n r ) ! p q

Where p = probability of success q = probability of failure r = no. of success desired n = no. of trials undertaken

p =0.1

p=0.3

p=0.5

r EX 1 : Samples of 20 pieces each are taken at random from very large lots of

components. Determine the probability that such a sample will contain

a) 2 or more defectives b) Exactly 2 defectives c) More than 3 defectives d) Less than or equal to 3 defectives e) Less than 2 defectives f) Utmost 2 defectives g) Atleast 2 defectives . The lot is 15 % defective n = 20, p = 0.15, q = 1 0.15 = 0.85
r nr n! y( r ) = r!( n r ) ! p q

a) 2 or more defectives = 1 y(0) - y(1)

20! 0 20 0 y ( 0 ) = 0!( 20 0 )! 0.15 0.85 y ( 0 ) = 0.0387

20! 1 20 1 y (1) = 1 0.15 0.85 ( ) ! 20 1 ! y (1) = 0.1367

2 or more defectives = 1 y(0) - y(1) =1 y(0) y(1) = 1 0.0387 - 0.1367 = 0.8246 b) Exactly 2 defectives
20! 2 20 2 y ( 2 ) = 2!( 20 2 )! 0.15 0.85 y ( 2 ) = 0.229

c) More than 3 defectives = 1 y(0) y(1) y(2) y(3)

20! 3 20 3 y ( 3) = 3!( 20 3)! 0.15 0.85 y ( 3) = 0.2428

More than 3 defectives = 1 y(0) y(1) y(2) y(3) = 1 0.0387 - 0.1367 0.229 - 0.2428 = 0.3528

d) Less than or equal to 3 defectives = y(0) + y(1) + y(2) + y(3) = 0.0387 +0.1367 + 0.229 + 0.2428 = 0.6472

e) Less than 2 defectives = y(0) + y(1) = 0.0387 + 0.1367 = 0.1754

f) Utmost 2 defectives = y(0) + y(1) + y(2) = 0.0387+ 0.1367 + 0.229 = 0.4044

g) Atleast 2 defectives = 1 y(0) y(1) = 1- 0.0387 0.1367 = 0.8246 POISSONS DISTRIBUTION: Same as binomial but particularly applicable when there are many opportunities for occurrence of an event, but a low probability (less than 0.1) on each trial. If the probability of occurrence pof an event is constant on each of n independent trials of the event, the probability of r occurrence in n trials is
y (r) =

( np ) r

e ( np ) r!

where n = no. of trials p = probability occurrence r = no. of occurrence p=0.1 p=0.3 n is large & p is small for Poisson distribution.p=0.5

EX 1: The probability that a casting produced by a certain foundry has blow holes is 0.002. Find the probability that less than 5 of the next 2000 produced by the foundry has the blow holes. p = 0.002 , n = 2000 , np = 4 The probability of less than 5 blow holes = y(0) + y(1) + y(2) + y(3) + y(4)
y (r) =

( np ) r

e ( np ) r!
= 0.0184 = 0.0732 = 0.1465

y (0) = y (1) = y ( 2) = y ( 3) =

( 4)0 e 4
0!

( 4)1 e 4
1!

( 4)2 e 4
2!

( 4 )3 e 4
3!

= 0.1953

y ( 4) =

( 4) 4 e 4
4!

= 0.1953

The probability of less than 5 blow holes = y(0) + y(1) + y(2) + y(3) + y(4) = 0.018+ 0.0732 + 0.1465 + 0.195 + 0.1953 = 0.6287