Project Scheduling

Project
- Project consists of interrelated activities, which are to be executed in a certain order before the entire task is completed. - Project can be defined as a non-repetitive activity.

Characteristics of Project
goal oriented. has particular set of constraints, usually time and resources. output of the project is measurable.

Project Objectives
- It has a time bound programme to start, execute, commission, and delivery of the project. - It has cost-bound activities in terms of money spent or resources consumed. - It shall conform to the technical specifications set at the point of deciding upon the project.

Project Management Concept

- It includes planning, organizing, directing and controlling the activities of a project. - Planning involves deciding what has to be done, when and by whom. - Resources are organized through activities like procurement and recruitment. - Directing these activities towards an objective is a major management role. - Finally activities need to be controlled for ensuring that they fit within the limits (e.g. financial) set for them.

Project Planning
Once project proposal is accepted for implementation through project feasibility study, detailed project planning is carried out.

Activities carried out in project planning stage are as follows: Planning regarding what need to be done, when and at what cost. Plans and specifications should be clearly understood

Project Scheduling
It becomes a tool to ensure timely implementation of the project. Project schedule lists down step by step in sequential order the jobs involved in the implementation of the project. Steps should be well defined along with the required time to complete each step. Project manager is assigned with responsibility to complete activities of the project within the time allotted and budgeted cost. Gantt Chart Network Techniques Critical Path Method (CPM) Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Techniques for Project Scheduling

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Project Scheduling using Network Techniques

Steps for Project Scheduling Identify and list activities involved from the start to completion of a project. List the activities in sequential order of performance. Precedence relationship of each activities are identified Estimate resource requirement for each activities of the project Estimate duration of each activity Draw network diagram for the activities, so that operational planning for execution of the project can be visualized. Activities - Activity is a task that consumes time, effort, money or other resources. - Activity is represented in a diagram by an arrow with its head indicating direction of progress in the project. Dummy Activity Artificial activity introduced in a network to: maintain unique numbering system for different activities, keeps logical sequence of activities and their interrelationships correct. Dummy activity does not consume any time and represented by a dotted arrow -----> Event - Specific point in time at which an activity begins or ends - Event is generally represented by a circle, rectangle, or any other geometric shapes. - Number inside the geometric shape distinguishes an activity from another one. Network - Graphic representation of a projects operations and is composed of activities and events. - Activities terminating at an event must be completed before the following activity begins.

Critical Path - Longest time path through a network is called Critical Path. - Critical Path in a network is represented by heavy/double lines. - A project can have multiple critical path. Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) Times - Early start time of a job in a project is the earliest possible time that the job can begin - It is labeled as ES ( ), where the job name appears within the parentheses. - Early finish time of a job, denoted by EF ( ), - For job a, EF (a) = ES (a) + t (a). Early Start Time [ES], Early Finish Time [EF], Late Start Time [LS], and Late Finish Time [LF] of an activity is represented in the network as follows: [ES, EF] [LS, LF] Total Slack (TS) - Total Slack of a job is the difference between its late start time and early start time, i.e., TS (a) = LS (a) ES (a), or - Difference between its late finish and early finish times, i.e., TS (a) = LF (a) EF (a). - Jobs on the critical path have zero total slack. Free Slack (FS) - Difference between early finish time of a job and the earliest of the early start time of all its immediate successors - FS (a) = ES (b) EF (a)

Early Occurrence Time (TE) and Late Occurrence Time (TL) of Events - Early occurrence time of an event indicates earliest possible time the event can occur. - Late occurrence time means the latest possible time the event can occur without affecting the project completion date.

Example of CPM
- It is proposed to erect a 2km long 110 KV single circuit transmission line for connecting sub-station with Transmission Tower. - Engineers and Consultants have identified the following major work components involved in the project. o Preliminary Survey- reconnaissance survey to decide the route and getting approval o Detailed Estimate & Sanction: detailed survey, fixing tower locations, preparation of tower schedules, preparation of estimates, and getting sanction o Preparation of Tree Cutting Schedule: Schedule for removal of trees along the route of transmission line. Revenue department needs to be approached for valuation of trees and sending compensation proposal. o Procurement of Power Stubs and Tower Parts: Indents have to be prepared for procuring the items. o Award of Contract for Stub Setting: Tender schedules have to be prepared, tenders have to be called and contracts finalized. o Award of Contract for Tower Erection: Preparation of tender schedules, calling of tenders, and finalization of contract. o Stub Setting: Stub setting for towers and concreting o Tree Cutting: Cutting and removal of trees, clearing the way of transmission line o Tower Erection and Stringing: Contractor has to erect towers and carry out stringing and completing transmission line

o Energizing: Final inspection and energizing Group of engineers and consultants identified the interdependence between the activities Time for each activity was also estimated by the engineers and consultants Estimate for an activity has been made by considering the following factors: o Micro elements of the activity o Past experience regarding the time taken by the micro elements or the activity as a whole o Experience at other places o In case of absence of past guidelines, a guess is made by experienced person regarding micro elements of the activity Following table presents the activities of the project along with inter-dependence and time estimates for each activity Activity Description Immediate Predecessors Estimated Duration (weeks) 12 4 20 20 8 8 8 8 12 4

Activity Name (1, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6) (3, 7) (6, 7) (4, 7) (7, 8) (8, 9) a) b)

Survey Estimate and Sanction (1, 2) Tree Cutting Schedule (1, 2) Procure Stubs and Tower (2, 3) Parts Award of Contract for Stub (2, 3) Setting Award of Contract for (2, 3) Tower Erection Stub Setting (3, 5), (3, 6) Tree Cutting (2, 4) Tower Erection and (3, 7), (6, 7), (4, 7) Stringing Energizing (7, 8) Draw the network for the project Identify Critical Path of the network

c) Find the estimated time to complete the transmission line project.

Activity EST EFT LST LFT Total Slack (1, 2) 0 12 0 12 0 (2, 3) 12 16 12 16 0 (2, 4) 12 32 16 36 4 (3, 5) 16 36 16 36 0 (3, 6) 16 24 28 36 12 (3, 7) 16 24 36 44 20 (6, 7) 36 44 36 44 0 (4, 7) 32 40 36 44 4 (7, 8) 44 56 44 56 0 (8, 9) 56 60 56 60 0

EST LST EFT LFT Total Slack

= Early start time of the activity = Late start time of the activity = Early finish time of the activity = Late finish time of the activity = LST EST or LFT EFT

Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) - PERT was developed primarily to simplify planning and scheduling of large and complex projects. - PERT deals with the problem of uncertainty in the activity times. - Developed in late 1950s for US Navys Polaris Missile project having thousands of contractors. Difference between PERT and CPM CPM project the activity duration in a deterministic manner while PERT uses the theory of probability to estimate the project completion time. CPM uses one time estimate of each activity duration while PERT uses three types of time estimates optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. CPM is used for small projects, where activities are standardized with enough experience to estimate the time with reasonable accuracy whereas PERT is used for large complex projects. Expected Times for Activities PERT calculates the expected time of an activity (t e) as a weighted average of the three time estimates. a + 4m + b tij = --------------6 Where, a = optimistic time of an activity m = most likely time of an activity b = pessimistic time of an activity The standard deviation of an activity (e) is calculated as follows: b-a ij = ------6

Problem - A small project is composed of nine activities whose time estimates are listed in the following table. - Activities are identified by their beginning (i) and ending (j) node numbers. Activity i j 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 5 7 a) b) c) d) e) f) g) 2 6 3 4 5 5 7 8 8 Estimated Duration (days) Optimistic Most Pessimistic Likely 3 6 15 2 5 14 6 12 30 2 5 8 5 11 17 3 6 15 3 9 27 1 4 7 4 19 28

Draw the project network Find the expected duration and variance for each activity What is the expected project length? What is the standard deviation of project length? What is the probability that jobs on the critical path will be completed by the due date of 41 days? What is the probability that the jobs on the next most critical path will be completed by the due date? What is your estimate of the probability that the entire project will be completed by the due date? Explain.

Activity i j 1 2 1 6 2 3 2 4 3 5 4 5 6 7 5 8 7 8

te 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 18

e 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4

2e 4 4 16 1 4 4 16 1 16

Expected project length = 36 days Project variance (2p) = 212 + 223 + 235 + 258 = 4 + 16 + 4 + 1 = 25 Project standard deviation (p) = (2p) = 5 Probability that jobs on the critical path will be completed by the due date of 41 days

41 - 36 Z = --------- = 1 5 - From Normal distribution table, for Z value of 1, probability of completing activities on Critical Path is 0.84 - Next Most Critical path is 1- 6 7 - 8.

- Duration of next most critical path is 35 days - Standard Deviation along next most critical path () = (4 + 16 + 16) = 6 41 - 35 Z = --------- = 1 6 - Probability that jobs on the next most critical path will be completed by the due date is 0.84 - Probability that entire project will be completed by the due date is 0.84 X 0.84 = 0.71. As the two paths are independent. Probability of both being completed within 41 days is equal to the product of their respective probabilities of being completed within 41 days

Simulation of a Network - PERT deals with problem of uncertainty in the activity times. - More easily managed approach un PERT is simulation - Using Monte Carlo Sampling technique, activity times are randomly selected for each activity from some appropriate frequency distribution - Based on these times project length and critical path are then computed un the normal way - Procedure is repeated several thousand times in computer and a record is kept of the critical path data generated - Finally, an average project length and standard deviation are calculated on the basis of the simulated data

- This procedure will be more reliable than those produced by normal procedure Criticality Index - Useful measure of criticality can also be obtained from simulated data - For each activity a record is kept of the proportion of simulation runs in which the activity is critical - For example, if activity a is on a critical path 3,000 times out of 10,000 simulation runs, then it can be said that the criticality index of that activity is 0.3 for the given project - It indicates that the activity has 30% chance of being critical if the data based on which calculations have been are accurate. - Activities with high criticality index would be subjected to most managerial scrutiny, since they have highest probability of delaying the project - Moderately high criticality index will also call for management attention, as there is a chance of delaying the project - Additionally, a probability distribution of slack values for each activity can be calculated