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CHAPTER OUTLI NES:

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Sample Spaces And Probability Concepts

3.3 Marginal and Conditional Probabilities

3.4 Events & Probability Rules
3.4.1 Mutually Exclusive Events
3.4.2 Independent and Dependent Events
3.4.3 Complementary Events



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OBJ ECTI VES:

After completing this chapter, students you should be able to;

1. Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an
event, using classical probability or empirical probability.

2. Find the probability of compound events, using the
addition rules.

3. Find the probability of compound events, using the
multiplication rules.

4. Find the conditional probability of an event.







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The principles of probability help bridge the worlds of
descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

Probability can be defined as the chance of an event
occurring or to be specific the numeric value representing
the chance, likelihood, or possibility a particular event
will occur.

Situations that involve probability:
1. Observing or playing a game of chance such as card
games and slot machines
2. Insurance
3. Investments
4. Weather Forecasting etc.

It is the basis of inferential statistics such as predictions
and testing the hypotheses

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Some basic concepts of probability:
1. A PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
- A chance process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.

2. AN OUTCOME
- The result of a single trial of a probability
experiment.

3. A SAMPLE SPACE
- The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.

- Some sample spaces for various probability
experiments are shown below .

EXPERIMENT SAMPLE SPACES
Toss one coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false
questions
True, False
Toss two coins Head-Head, Head-Tail, Tail-Tail,
Tail-Head

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Example 1
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Die1
Die 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Example 2
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if
a family has three children. Use B for boy and G for
girl.
There are two genders, male and female and each
child could be either gender. Hence, there are eight
possibilities.



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4. A TREE DIAGRAM

- Another way to determine all possible outcomes
(sample space) of a probability experiment.

- It is a device consisting of line segments emanating
from a starting point and also from the outcome
point.

Example 3
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.




B
G
B
B
G
G
B
G
B
G
B
G
B
G
1
st
child
2
nd
child
3
rd
child Outcomes
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Example 4
You are at a carnival. One of the carnival games asks
you to pick a door and then pick a curtain behind the
door. There are 3 doors and 4 curtains behind each
door. Use a tree diagram to find the sample spaces for
all the possible choices.






1
2
3
Curtain
Outcomes
Door
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5. VENN DIAGRAM
- developed by John Venn and are used in set theory
and symbolic logic.

- have been adapted to probability theory.

- a picture (a closed geometric shape such as a
rectangle, a square, or a circle) that depicts all the
possible outcomes for an experiment.

- the symbol represents the union of two events
and P(A B) corresponds to A OR B.

- the symbol represents the intersection of two
events and P(A B) corresponds to A AND B.






Venn Diagram representing
two events; A and B
Venn Diagram representing
three events; A, B and C
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6. AN EVENT
- Consists of a set of outcomes of a probability
experiment.

- An event can be :

a) Simple event an event with one outcome
e.g: If a die is rolled and a 6 shows since it is a
result of single trial

b) Compound event an even with more than one
outcome.
e.g : The event of getting an odd number when
a die is rolled since it consists of three
outcomes or three simple events.

Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals or
percentage (where appropriate).

There are four basic probability rules:

1. The probability of any event E is a number
between and including 0 and 1.
1 ) ( 0 s s E P


2. If an event E cannot occur, its probability is 0
(impossible event).

3. If an event is certain, then the probability of E is 1
(certain event).
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4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes
in the sample space is 1.

Three basic interpretations of probability that are used
to solve a variety of problems in business, engineering
and other fields:


1. CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

- Uses sample spaces to determine the probability an
event will happen.

- Assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur which means that all the
events have the same probability of occurring.

- The probability of any event E is:

Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes in the sample space

Or denoted as,
) (
) (
) (
S n
E n
E P =


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- E.g. : When a single die is rolled, each outcome has
the same probability of occurring. Since there are
six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of
6
1
.


2. EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY

- Relies on actual experience to determine the
likelihood of outcomes.

- Is based on observation.

- Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an
event being in a given class is:

Frequency for the class
Total frequencies in the distribution


Or denoted as,

n
f
E P = ) (






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Example 5
Hospital records indicate that maternity patients stayed
in the hospital for the number of days shown in the
following distribution:

Number of days stayed Frequency
3 15
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
Total 127

Find these probabilities,
a) A patient stayed exactly 5 days



b) A patient stayed less than 6 days




c) A patient stayed at most 4 days



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3. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
- Uses a probability value based on an educated guess
or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

- This guess is based on the persons experience and
evaluation of a solution.

- E.g: A physician might say that, on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will
need an operation.



In the previous topics we described how to produce a sample
space and assign probabilities to the simple events in the
sample space. In this topic, we discuss how to calculate
probability of more complicated events from the probability of
related events.

\ Field of Events
1. Intersection event
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample
space.

The intersection of events A and B is the event that
occurs when both A and B occur.

It is denoted by either A B or AB.
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Example 6
A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera





2. Union event
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample
space.

The union of events A and B is the event that
occurs when either A or B or both occur.

It is denoted as A B.

Example 7
A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera




A
B
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Example 8
A senior citizens centre has 300 members. Of them,
140 are male, 210 take at least one medicine on a
permanent basis and 95 are male and take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis. Draw a Venn diagram
to describe,

a) the intersection of the events male and take at
least one medicine on a permanent basis.

b) the union of the events male and take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis.

c) the intersection of the events female and take
at least one medicine on a permanent basis.

d) the union of the events female and take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis.




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3. Independent event
Two events A and B are independent events if the
fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of
B occurring.

Example 9
Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a
second die and getting a 3.








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4. Dependent event
When the outcome or occurrence of the first
event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in such a way that the probability is
changed, the events are said to be dependent
events.

Some examples of dependent events:
a) Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and
then drawing a second card.

b) Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and
then selecting a second ball.

c) Having high grades and getting a scholarship.

d) Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking
ticket.

NOTE: THE EXAMPLES OF JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING
CONTIGENCY TABLE

Table 1: Gives the two-way classification of all employees of a
company by gender and college degree

Category College
graduate, G
Not a college
graduate, G
Total
Male, M 7 20 27
Female, F 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40
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\ Joint Probability
The probability of the intersection of events.
Written by either P(A B) or P(AB).

Example 10 Refer Table 1 (Page 17)
If one of those employees is selected at random for
membership on the employee management committee,
there are 4 joint probabilities that can be defined. That
is,

a) the probability that this employee is a male and a
college graduate


b) the probability that this employee is a female and a
college graduate



c) the probability that this employee is a male and not
a college graduate



d) the probability that this employee is a female and
not a college graduate


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\ Marginal Probability
The probability of a single event without
consideration of any event.

Also called as simple probability.

Named so as they calculated in the margins of the
table (divide the corresponding totals for the row or
column by the grand total).

Example 11 Refer Table 1 (Page 17)
If one of those employees is selected at random for
membership on the employee management committee,
find the probabilities for each of the followings:

a) the chosen employee is a male



b) the chosen employee is a female


c) the chosen employee a college graduate



d) the chosen employee is not a college graduate


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\ Conditional Probability
- Often used to gauge the relationship between two
events.

- Conditional probability is the probability that an
event will occur given that another event has already
occurred.

- Written as:
P(event will occur | event has already occur)


- The probability of event A given event B is

( )
( )
( )
|
P A B
P A B
P B

=


- The probability of event B given event A is

( )
( )
( )
|
P A B
P B A
P A

=





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Example 12 Refer Table 1 (Page 17)
If one of those employees is selected at random for
membership on the employee management committee,
find the probabilities for each of the followings:

a) the chosen employee is a male given that he is
graduated from college








b) the chosen employee is not a college graduate given
that this employee is female









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Example 13
A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are
country music.

a) 2 CDs are selected at random and with
replacement. Find the probability that the second
CD is country music given that the first CD is
country music.








b) This time the selection made is without
replacement. Find the probability that the second
CD is country music given that the first CD is
country music.








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3.4.1 Mutually Exclusive Events & Non-Mutually
Exclusive Events

\ Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time (they have no outcomes in
common).

\ The probability of two or more events can be
determined by the addition rules.

\ There are two addition rules to determine either the
two events are mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive.
Addition Rule 1
When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability that A or B will occur is

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) or
P(A and B) = 0





P(A) P(B)
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Addition Rule 2
When two events A and B are not mutually exclusive,
then
P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)






Example 14

Consider the following events when rolling a die:
A = an even number is obtained = {2,4,6}
B = an odd number is obtained = {1,3,5}

Are events A and B are mutually exclusive ?

Solution:




A
B
P(B)
P(A)
P(A and B)
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Example 15
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not when a single die is rolled.

a) Getting a 3 and getting an odd number.

b) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a
number less than 4.

c) Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4.


Example 16
There are 8 nurses and 5 physicians in a hospital unit; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse
or a male.

Solution:
Staff Female, F Male, M Total
Nurses, N 7 1 8
Physicians, PY 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13





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Example 17
At a convention there are 7 mathematics instructors, 5
computer sciences instructors, 3 statistics instructors,
and 4 science instructors. If an instructor is selected,
find the probability of getting a science instructor or a
math instructor.

Solution:

P(science instructor or math instructor)










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Example 18
A grocery store employs cashiers, stock clerks and deli
personnel. The distribution of employees according to
marital status is shown here.

Marital Status Cashiers Clerks Deli Personnel
Married
8 12 3
Not Married
5 15 2

If an employee is selected at random, find these
probabilities:

a. the employee is a stock clerk or married




b. the employee is not married




c. the employee is a cashier or is unmarried




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3.4.2 Independent vs Dependent Events

\ For two independent events, A and B, the
occurrence of event A does not change the
probability of B occurring.


\ The probability of independent events can be
determined as:

P( A | B ) = P(A) Or

P( B | A ) = P(B)

Or

Multiplication Rule 1
When two events are independent, the
probability of both occurring

P(A B) = P(A) P(B)





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Example 19
A box contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its colour noted. Then it is
replaced. A second ball is selected and its colour noted.
Find the probability of each of these:

a. selecting two blue balls.






b. selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball.







c. selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball.







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Example 20
A survey found that 68% of book buyers are 40 years or
older. If two book buyers are selected at random, find
the probability that both are 40 years or older.




\ On the other hand, two events, A and B are
dependent when the occurrence of the event A
changes the probability of the occurrence of event B.


\ When two events are dependent, another
multiplication rule can be used to find the
probability.


Multiplication Rule 2
When two events are dependent, the probability
of both occurring

P (A B) = P(A) P( B | A )




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Example 21
In a scientific study there are 8 tigresses, 5 of which are
pregnant. If 3 are selected at random without
replacement, find the probability that:

a) all tigresses are pregnant.




P (PGPGPG) =



PG
PG
1
st
tigress
2
nd
tigress
3
rd
tigress Outcomes
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG

PG

PG

PG

PG

3
8
3
7
5
7
3
6
3
6
2
6
4
6
PG

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b) two tigresses are pregnant.

Let A be an event of two tigresses are pregnant

P(A) = P(PGPG
PG
) + P(PG
PG
PG)
+ P(
PG
PGPG)

=






3.4.3 Complementary Events

\ The set of outcomes in the sample space that is not
included in the outcomes of event E.

\ Denoted as E (read E bar)




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Example 22
Find the complement of each event.

a. Rolling a die and getting a 4




b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a
vowel


c. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday




\ The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the
complement make up the entire sample space.

\ The rule of complementary events can be stated
algebraically in three ways:


) ( 1 ) ( E P E P =
Or
) ( 1 ) ( E P E P =
Or
1 ) ( ) ( = + E P E P



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\ The concept can be represented pictorially by the
following Venn Diagram.


Example 23
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by
the IRS at least once. If one taxpayer is randomly
selected from this group, what are the probability of that
taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS?

Solution:
Let, A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the
IRS at least once

A
= the selected taxpayer has never been audited
by the IRS




P(E)
P(S)=1
P(E)

) (E P

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\ The multiplication rules can be used with the
complementary event rule to simplify solving
probability problems involving at least.

Example 24
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first year
students have computers. If three students are selected
at random, find the probability at least one has the
computer

Solution:
Let, C = at least one student has a computer

C
= none of the students has a computer

P(has computer) =
So, P(has no computers) =
By using the complementary event rule,

) ( 1 ) ( C P C P =

=




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Example 25
In a department store there are 120 customers, 90 of
whom will buy at least one item. If 4 customers are
selected at random, one by one, find the probability that
at least one of the customers will but at least one item.
Would you consider this event likely to occur? Explain.

Solution: Let
C = at least one customer will buy at least one item
C
= none of the customers will buy at least one item
P(will buy at least one item) =

So, P(wont buy any items) =

By using the complementary event rule,

) ( 1 ) ( C P C P =

=
|
.
|

\
|

4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
1

= 1
256
1
=
256
255
= 0.9961

Yes, this event is most likely to occur (certain event) since
the probability almost 1

NOTE: THE FOLLOWING EXAMPLES ARE BASED ON THE OVERALL
UNDERSTANDING OF THE ENTIRE PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

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Example 26
A random sample of 400 college students was asked if
college athletes should be paid. The following table
gives a two-way classification of the responses.


Should be paid,
PAID
Should not be
paid, PAID
Total
Student athlete, SA 90 10 100
Student non-
athlete, SNA
210 90 300
Total 300 100 400

a) If one student is randomly selected from these 400
students, find the probability that this student

i. Is in favour of paying college athletes




ii. Favours paying college athletes given that the
student selected is a non-athlete







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iii. Is an athlete and favours paying student athletes




iv. Is a non-athlete or is against paying student
athletes





b) Are the events student athlete and should be
paid independent? Are they mutually exclusive?
Explain why or why not.

P(SAPAID) = 9/40 = 0.2250 and
P(SA) P(PAID) =
=
400
100


Since, P(SAPAID) = P(SA) P(PAID), those two
events are not independent (dependent).

And since P(SAPAID) = 0, those two events are
not mutually exclusive




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Example 27
A screening test for a certain disease is prone to giving
false positives of false negatives. If a patient being
tested has the disease, the probability that the test
indicates a false negative is 0.13. If the patient does not
have the disease, the probability that the test indicates a
false positive is 0.10. Assume that 3% of the patients
being tested actually have the disease. Suppose that one
patient is chosen at random and tested. Find the
probability that;

Let D = the patient has the disease
D= the patient does not have the disease
PO = the patient tests positive
NE = the patient tests negative










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a. This patient has the disease and tests positive



b. This patient does not have the disease and tests
positive



c. This patient tests positive




d. This patient does not have the disease and tests
negative




e. This patient has the disease given that he/she tests
positive





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EXERCISES
1. For each of the following, indicate whether the type of
probability involved is an example of classical probability,
empirical probability or subjective probability:

i) the next toss of a fair coin will land on heads.

ii) italy will win soccers World Cup the next time the
competition is held.

iii) the sum of the faces of two dice will be 7.

iv) the train taking a commuter to work will be more than
10 minutes late.


2. A test contains two multiple-choice questions. If a student
makes a random guess to answer each question, how many
outcomes are possible? Draw a tree diagram for this
experiment. (Hint: Consider two outcomes for each
question either the answer is correct or it is wrong).

3. Refer to question 1. List all the outcomes included in each
of the following events and mention which are simple and
which are compound events.
i) Both answers are correct.
ii) At most one answer is wrong.
iii) The first answer is correct and the second is wrong.
iv) Exactly one answer is wrong.
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4. State whether the following events are independent or
dependent.
i) Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car.

ii) Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ.

iii) A father being left-handed and a daughter being left-
handed.

iv) Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smoking
an excessive amount of cigarettes.

5. 88% of American children are covered by some type of
health insurance. If four children are selected at random,
what is the probability that none are covered?

6. A box of nine golf gloves contains two left-handed gloves
and seven right-handed gloves.
i) If two gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that both
gloves selected will be right-handed?

ii) If three gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that all
three will be left-handed?

iii) If three gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that at
least one glove will be right-handed?


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7. A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the
economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months
is 25%. She also believes that if the economy encounters
recession, the probability that her mutual fund will
increase in value is 20%. If there is no recession, the
probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is
75%. Find the probability that the mutual funds value will
increase.

8. A car rental agency currently has 44 cars available. 18 of
which have a GPS navigation system. One of the 44 cars is
selected at random, find the probability that this car,

i) has a GPS navigation system.

ii) does not have a GPS navigation system.

Now, two cars are selected at random from these 44 cars.
Find the probability that at least one of these cars have
GPS navigation system.

9. A recent study of 300 patients found that of 100 alcoholic
patients, 87 had elevated cholesterol levels, and 200 non-
alcoholic patients, 43 had elevated cholesterol levels.

i) If a patient is selected at random, find the probability
that the patient is the following,
an alcoholic with elevated cholesterol level.
a non-alcoholic.
a non-alcoholic with non-elevated cholesterol level.

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ii) Are the events alcoholic and non-elevated
cholesterol levels independent? Are they mutually
exclusive? Explain why or why not.

10. The probability that a randomly selected student from
college is female is 0.55 and that a student works more
than 10 hours per week is 0.62. If these two events are
independent, find the probability that a randomly selected
student is a
i) male and works for more than 10 hours per week.

ii) female or works for more than 10 hours per week.

11. A housing survey studied how City Sun homeowners get
to work. Suppose that the survey consisted of a sample of
1,000 homeowners and 1,000 renters.

Drives to Work Homeowner Renter
Yes 824 681
No 176 319

i) If a respondent is selected at random, what if the
probability that he or she

drives to work?
drives to work and is a homeowner?
does not drive to work or is a renter?
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ii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is
the probability that he or she is a homeowner?

iii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is
the probability that he or she is a renter?

iv) Are the two events, driving to work and the
respondent is a homeowner, independent?

v) Purchased more products and changed brands?

vi) Given that a consumer changed the brands they
purchased, what then is the probability that the
consumer purchased fewer products than before?

12. Due to the devaluation which occurred in country PQR,
the consumers of that country were buying fewer
products than before the devaluation. Based on a study
conducted, the results were reported as the following:

Brands
Purchased
Number of Products Purchased
Fewer Same More
Same 10 14 24
Changed 262 82 8

What is the probability that a consumer selected at
random:


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i) purchased fewer products than before?

ii) purchased the same number or same brands?

iv) purchased more products and changed brands?

iv) given that a consumer changed the brands they
purchased, what then is the probability that the
consumer purchased fewer products than before?


13. A soft-drink bottling company maintains records
concerning the number of unacceptable bottles of soft
drink from the filling and capping machines. Based on
past data, the probability that a bottle came from machine
I and was non-conforming is 0.01 and the probability that
a bottle came from machine II and was non-confirming is
0.0025. If a filled bottle of soft drink is selected at
random, what is the probability that

i) it is a non-confirming bottle?

ii) it was filled on machine I and is a conforming bottle?

iii) it was filled on machine II or is a conforming bottle?

iv) suppose you know that the bottle was produced on
machine I, what is the probability that it is non-
conforming?

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14. Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the
performance of new cars during the first 90 days of use.
Based on a study, the probability that the new car needs a
warranty repair is 0.04, the probability that the car
manufactured by Country ABC is 0.60, and the
probability that the new car needs a warranty repair and
was manufactured by Country ABC is 0.025.

i) What is the probability that the car needs a warranty
repair given that Country ABC manufactured it?

ii) What is the probability that the car needs a warranty
repair given that Country ABC did not manufacture
it?

iii) Are need for a warranty repair and country
manufacturing the car statistically independent?


15. CASTWAY is a direct selling company which has 350
authorized sale agents from all over the country. It is
known that 168 of them are male. 40% of male sale
agents has permanent job while half of female sale agents
do not have permanent job.
i) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the above events.

ii) What is the probability that a randomly selected sale
agent,
has permanent job?
is a male given that he does not have permanent
job?