Two Great Lakes Hit Record Low Levels: Climate Crisis or Natural Cycle?

In this Nov. 16, 2012 photo, a sand bar is exposed by low water, which has made nearby docks and marinas largely unusable. (John Flesher/AP
Photo)

Lake Levels Impacted By:

Precipitation (magnitude and intensity) Evaporation/Temperature Runoff (land use) Crustal Rebound Climate Change natural Diversions into and out of the basin Dredging of connecting channels Control Structures (Lake Sup./Lake Ont.) Climate Change man induced Withdrawals and consumptive uses

Data 1860-1900: Milwaukee monthly average water levels per "Great Lakes Water Levels, 1860-1990" US Dept of Commerce, NOAA, Sept 1992.

MAXIMUM DEPTH 923 FEET

What, if anything, should we do about falling water levels?

Should we pursue active measures? Control Lake Michigan/Huron outflows Increase diversions in? Decrease diversions out? Reduce withdrawals and consumptive uses? Try to influence precip/evap through climate change policies? Or should we pursue adaptive management? Dredging of harbors and boat ramps Extending water supply intakes Local ecosystem improvement projects

These Guys Are Not Getting Great Lakes Water !

Figure 1. Illinois Lake Michigan Water Allocation Permittees' Total Annual Use
1250

Net Annual Lake Michigan Pumpage (mgd)

1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Water Year

Current Status of Illinois' Diversion Certified Running Cumulative Accounting Flow Average Deviation Year (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) 2007 3094 3171 774 2008 3002 3165 972 2009 3135 3164 1037 2010* 2967 3158 1270 2011* 2838 3147 1632 2012* 2181 3117 2651
*Estimated,

Apr-13

based on final approved USGS Lemont Discharge value

Glacial action shaped the Lake Michigan basin over multiple glacial cycles. Ice of the most recent glaciation began leaving the basin about 14,000 years ago (A).

Glacial Ice Position About 10,000 Years Ago Lake level falls to ~ 300 feet below present

Chippewa Phase

River Drainage Across Exposed Lake Bottom

GLACIAL LAKE CHICAGO

1 2

Lake Level + 60 Ft 3

CHICAGO

5 MI 5 KM

14,500 yrs ago

14,300 yrs ago

14,000 yrs ago

Southern Lake Michigan Lake-Level : Past 14,000 Years

14,000 Today

Historical Mean Lake Level