1/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID:

201210287

Re-Shaping World Orders by Re-Balancing Powers:

One Superpower and Many Great Powers (as BRICs) A World Towards More Confrontation or Cooperation?
Ideologically, it is a time not of convergence but of divergence (Kagan 2007). This statement emphasizes the perception of the present world order that rests highly on power. The realist point of view remains valid. Hard-power balancing and confrontations occur from time to time. However, the soft-power balancing and diplomatic strategies are still practiced. There is also evidence of new rising powers emerging and challenging the United States as the superpower. The question is somehow pointing to whether the superpower and rising powers (i.e. BRICs) will interact convergently or divergently. Is the world we are living in unipolar or tending to be multipolar? Also, what would be consequences of the rising power playing more roles in international politics? This essay aims to draw more attention to both sides of the coin, realist and liberalist points of view. The essay also argues that the world order in the coming decades will be more complicated to assess than only the concept of power. Thus, more attention to other interplaying dimensions that are shaping world orders is crucially important. Besides power balancing, the dynamics of economics, the roles of international institutions, and the contribution regarding values and ideas these are reshaping the world order today and a trend for the coming decades. As we have been experiencing, the world now becomes more globalized, interdependent, and is facing such transitional threats such as nuclear disputes, economic crises, and environmental problems. Those will lead the US, giant European powers and rising powers to more cooperation rather than rivalry among each other. The first part of this essay will be constructed based on Kagans argument, which heavily weighs on power balancing, and the belief that the US as a hegemony is good for world stability. However, a better understanding of the world system, other counterarguments will be drawn into the assessment to complement a bigger picture. Regarding this matter, the assessment of rising powers as one of the big institutional

2/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

questions and challenges is critically important. Thus, the second part will elaborate the concerns regards the emerging power BRICs of their leadership roles, which will be taken as a case study. To examine the possibility or the face of unfolding world order, the assessment of BRICs is inevitable. The main question lies on whether the new rising powers will take more responsibility to maintain peace and balanced world order, or will increase more risk and tension in world political affairs. Kagan (2007) points out the world order that rests solely on power balancing; however, this hardly completes the whole picture of world order. The confrontation may seem to be increasing in the global political sphere. However, this essay reveals the findings that there are at least three main challenges that will force BRIC countries to take on more responsibilities: first, the economic imbalance and risk; second, political and social transformation; and, third, environmental accountability. Therefore, the future trend of world order, though many empirical data show much of confrontations, armed conflicts, and territorial wars; the cooperation among BRICs, the US superpower and European powers, is not merely a hope or dream but is a potentially beneficial scenario. I. End of Dreams, Return of History? Huntington (1993) proposes that the world order exists in balancing among different civilizations, that the central immediate future conflicts tend to happen between the West and Islamic-Confucian states. There are conflicts and struggles due to different historical consciousness and cultural awareness, which are becoming more intense and leading to clashes (Huntington 1993). However, it is difficult to assess this argument in empirical analysis of the conflicts as civilizations are involved in gradual long period of time, various factors, often developed and changed over time. The clash of civilization is also somewhat seen as the consequence or symptom of political, economic and power struggles, not the clash in and of itself. Thus, the clash of civilizations that is presumed in dominating global politics cannot be simply applied to understand world politics.

3/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

Hegelians may believe that the US or Western league acting in this leading role of interfering all nations not only for their self-interest, but also there are some values behind the action of the world progress of human civilizations. There are values as such liberty and equality that have driven the great power countries to pursue peace and well being for their people and the world citizens. These kinds of values and ideologies also permit the growth of free market economies and political systems, such as liberal democracy, to exist, and tend to be promoted to all nations in the world (Fukuyama 1989). However, those values are not expressed necessarily in peaceful ways and the liberal economics and democracy do not always guarantee well-being and peace of the people. There is also overwhelming evidence of western imperialism wars that liberty and freedom hardly to be taken as part of those acts (Fukuyama 1989). Specifically, in the case of the US military that has been exercising and expanding its power in the world as preponderance rather than balance power with other nations (Kagan 2007). Kagan points out that the ideology behind that it is somewhat a strong belief in liberal democracy as the only legitimate form of government to defend freedom and to see democratic enlargement in the world. Hence, realists argue among themselves about the unsustainability of one superpower. First, no one can be certain that the superpower will guarantee peace. For instance, in the past decades the US has employed military solution to problems many times (e.g. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq). Second, the other powers must inevitably band together to balance against the superpower such as the giant of Europe, Japan and the BRIC countries. These prospects will cause much tension and rivalry. Therefore, Kagan (2007) strongly suggests that the world order that rests on power is still very important. The world order is hardly based on the globalized economics and international cooperation solely. The economic policies are shaped and initiated regarding national self-interest, political will, and maintaining the status quo. For instance, when China opened up the economy to market forces, it did not aim to be only a wealthy nation, but rather to gain economic power in order to build up military power to maintain its socalled national security (Kagan 2007). China is now the largest player in the international system in terms of population and is experiencing spectacular economic growth. China

4/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

will become a true authoritarian superpower (Gat 2007), and then will direct to a further concern whether the rise of China will do good for global democracy development or a act as a detriment. However, some believe that the US must maintain dominant military supremacy to stabilize the peace and world order is still a very important check against the economic and political rise of China (Kagan 2007; Gat 2007). However, while the realists focus on power of the state, the liberalists argue that power of the state is in decline. Strange (2002) points out that the authority of all states has been weakened as a result of technological and financial change and that accelerated integration of national economies into one single global market economy. Specifically, the states were once the masters of markets; now it is the markets are the masters over the governments of states (Strange 2002: 128). Nevertheless, there is no absolute assumption proving the end of state power. States are not yet useless and markets have not taken over completely. For instance, Singapore government plays a successful role in governing both political power and economic markets. Even though, the roles of government and market are debatable of which one are more powerful, many times they are closely linked and interdependent. As a result, one of the major subjects of international relations studies highlights the transformation of states in adapting and striving in an era of globalization. At this point, taking globalized economic and finance, international institutions, and common threats into account to assess world order are crucially useful. The following part of the essay will examine the rising powers of BRIC countries in aiming to discuss and to point out some arguments in terms of world order rivalry and cooperation. II. BRICs Internal Rivalries: The Force Towards Cooperation Great power comes with great responsibility, a clich that is derived from American superhero comics. However, this idea has been raised a critical notion in the real world. BRICs, the new economically powerful countries have gained great attention in positioning themselves in current world politics. The term BRICs was introduced by Goldman economist Jim ONeil in 2001 to highlight the fast-growing economic countries,

5/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

namely Brazil, Russia, India and China. Even though BRICs are facing domestic rivalries, instead of causing international tension they will be forced to participate in ways that are more cooperative and integrative. According to Harold James (2008), due to the fact that BRIC countries are now facing internal problems and to maintain their ruling legitimacy - they will seek for compensating power, prestige, and military influence. Therefore, BRICs will cause more tension in the international political and economic environments. Jamess argument about BRICs domestic challenges is taken into consideration as valid academic proposals. However, the result of BRICs causing rivalries in world politics is still debatable and contradicted as internal problems might actually weakening BRICs rather than empowering them. Although in the meanwhile, the world is experiencing some rivalry tensions. Kagan (2008) also reveals realist viewpoint that rising powers are bringing more conflicts. He suggests that as BRICs pursuing for economic gains that also leads to military buildup. Due to the fear of BRICs rising, specifically China, the US and China roles in Burmas democratization, that is neither because the military junta came up with the political reform due to the past 40 years-plus peoples democratization movements in the country, nor international communitys pressure. It is the result of the US China balancing power within Southeast Asia region. Though, the US multi corporations have been exploiting gas and minerals in Burma for the past decades, having close business with the brutal regime, China is the main source for Burma in economic and development aid, and military assistance, and gaining more economic power in the region (Steinberg 2011). The US recently called for Burmese junta to democratize the country, and approving human rights situation, attempting to block out or balance the role of China in that region. Moreover, last year the US started building a naval base in Jeju Island, South Korean, in accommodating its nuclear submarine. This year, the World Beat (2012) reports that Pentagon increased US naval access in Danang, Vietnam. Last month, Reuters (2012) covered news about major US and Thai-led multinational military exercise

6/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

engaged Myanmar in their military trainings. This shows the USs move trying to contain Chinas rise. However, even among realists themselves believe that at the moment a physical war is too expensive for the US or China to afford, in terms of morality norms and each country internal factors. Admittedly, the rise of BRICs is dramatically emerging. In fact, they are facing many internal problems. James (2008) raises three reasons why the BRICs have hard time to rise as world superpowers, and their rises will impact on international systems. He points out that populated China and India must lift up their poverty, and uneducated citizens to be able to fully engage in the world market. Also, his concerns on lack of transparency and financial discipline in BRICs countries will only increase risks to financial crisis. Including, China and Russia are facing demographic decline. These factors will eventually slow down BRICs in absorbing their labour force and economic growth. To be precise, BRICs are now challenged by three aspects, financial, sociopolitical and environmental problems. 2.1) Economic Power and the Struggles to Success First of all, BRICs countries must be aware of economic imbalance and risks. According to International Herald Tribune (2012), ONeil predicts that BRICs combined economies are now worth almost $13 trillion. That will double in the next decade and will surpass the size of economies of the US plus EU. BRIC countries also have about 40 percent of global currency reserves. However, those reserves will eventually have impact on their increased currency value - might make their products less competitive in world markets. Moreover, there are concerns that BRICs are being very dependent on goods exportation, including natural resources that might soon experience a peak in production (e.g. oil, natural gas, coal, other fossil fuels, and uranium). China and India are intensively economic based on large-scale production platforms and consumers markets. Russia is viewed essentially as an exporter of oil and commodities, and Brazil being somehow in

7/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

between the flow of oil and other commodities across world markets. In fact, BRICs economies are still far behind in advanced technology and skilled industry. BRIC countries also lose their position in raking of Doing Business Index in recent years (Sapovadia, 2010). China is on 89th; India is at 233rd position while the US is 4th. Besides, among BRICs income per capita, the best is Russia with $9622 still onefifth of the US $47,576. Lowest is held by India with $1,256. Though, Brazil has become the sixth-biggest economy in the world by overtaking UK, the overall BRIC countries economies persistently illustrate high inflation, low-technologically industrial dependency, national income gaps and economic imbalances. Furthermore, BRICs recently have discussed creating a development bank model as like World Bank, attempting to facilitate trades and regulate market among them. Although, there is not much yet in progress because fearing China would dominate the new institution. In implying James (2008) concerns on lack of transparency and financial discipline in BRICs countries that will only increase risks to financial crisis. Therefore, the Western superpowers, G7 and WTO must engage BRICs more into International institution in cooperating and disciplining finance and market to prevent economic crisis. As the result, the BRICs economic illustrates unsustainability. The argument bases on the domestic challenges that BRICs are now facing will not lead them to gain more power. Instead, the internal rivalries will not be able to sustain BRICs power and they will be soon going to decline, including somewhat reformed. 2.2) Socio-Political Transformation and Concerns Second, consequently to economic challenges, BRICs will eventually be forced to experience political and social transformation, that transition to democracy in developing or modernizing countries by no means inevitable (Gat 2007). Deudney and Ikenberry also point out that the liberal economy will eventually lead to political liberalization, though will not be a smooth path but can be stopped and disrupted (2009:5-11). BRICs are facing corruption, weak accountability, inequality, natural resource mismanagement, human capital populous, aging demographical phenomena, and limitations and insufficient

8/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

flows of information (Deudney and Ikenberry 2009; Rachman 2011; Sapovadia 2010: Srensen 2011a). Even though, there has been a substantial reduction in poverty in the developing countries during 1980s and 1990s. This was the period when Chinas opening the country and Indias economic liberalization in 1991 (Lal 2004: 122). However, the Global Finance (2010) recent ranking the poorest countries in the world based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP PPP purchasing power parity) per capita from 2008-2012, its indicator ranks from 1-182. India ranks at 55th, China is at 87th, Brazil is at 110th, Russian is at 131th, while the United State is at 177th, Singapore ranks 179th and the richest is Qatar at 182th. The poverty is still key problems in BRIC countries. Moreover, Russia and China are non-democratic countries, and severely suppress and control their peoples, freedom of beliefs and press. The rising powers lack good governance and insufficiently practice rule of law. That is because for authoritarian regimes to stay in power they trade off between effectiveness to rule the people and regulate the market, but lack of legitimacy in governing (Patrick 201). According to Freedom Houses Freedom of the Press index of 2012, only 14.5 percent of the world's citizens live in countries that enjoy a free press. The rest of the world, governments as well as non-state actors control the viewpoints that reach citizens and brutally repress independent voices who aim to promote accountability, good governance, and economic development. The index assesses the degree of print, broadcast, and Internet freedom, China is characterized as Not Free, and score ranks at 85. Russia is also Not Free and ranks at 80. India and Brazil are categorized as Partly Free and have score rank at 37 and 44 respectively. Furthermore, the Transparency Internationals report reveals the Corruption by country index of 2012 while Singapore ranks at 5/176 and scores 87/100 considering one of the most transparency countries in the world. The ranks and scores are assessed in four subjects: financial regulation, anti-fraud legislation, government and politics, and political financing. While Brazils Corruption index ranks and score at 133/176 and 28/100; Chinas 80/176 and 39/100; Indias 94/176 and 36/100; and Russias 133/176 and its

9/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

score at 28/100. This kind of human rights and governance disregard trend will be hardly accepted by International norms, as well as it will create more internal conflicts - the clash between BRICs governments and the peoples. Specifically, the growing social network will force the autocratic states like China and Russia to political reform and being more democratized (Deudney and Ikenberry 2009). 2.3) Common Environmental Challenges and Cooperation Third, due to economic and industrial activities lead BRICs to facing environmental challenges. They might have to cooperate with the developed countries even more to resolve problems. Bloomberg reports, according to WWFs Living Planet Report 2010, ecological footprint of the BRICs is rising fast. Not only the GDP growth, BRICs will reach as big as OECD countries carbon footprint by 2017. The Diplomat (2011) reports that in 2008, the four BRIC economies accounted for more than one-third of global carbon emissions. In Brazil alone, unsustainable land use practices produced 75 percent of total emission. Undeniably, that industrialization of BRICs have been powered by the large use of fossil fuels, will pose more environmental problems. According to the International Energy Agency, coal use will more than double in India and China by 2050 (Tong Wu 2011). Russia currently produces more oil than any other country in the world apart from Saudi Arabia, to ensure the development and economic growth, but also has contributed carbon emission a great deal. As BRIC countries have about 40 percent of the worlds population, they have been asked to take more actions - not only in terms of political and financial, but also environmental responsibility. More importantly, recognizing those environmental challenges are transnational and transboundary, is somewhat required a global cooperation and implementation. Moreover, China and India is rising in demographic trend, will soon face water shortages from 2030, according to a United Nations report in August (Bloomberg 2012). UN also warns that rising water shortage problems can play a determining role in international, national and transboundary conflicts as that involves much in military

10/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

element and human security equation. The BRIC big brother, China already purchased Hokkaido forest in Japan, with the idea of exporting the bottled resource. In addition, according to International Commission on Large Dams, half of the 48,000 dams worldwide are in China. Together, China, Turkey, Iran, and Japan accounted for 67 percent of the total of dams under construction worldwide in 2003. The control of water (including other energy sources, e.g. biofuel, wind, solar, and nuclear power, etc.) resources is important for food security, economic development and national security. III. Conclusion The realists believe in the idea that history tends to repeat itself in term of states seeking for power and that situation potentially leads to conflict and confrontation. The world order that rests on power and insecurity of states is trending to bring more rivalries (Mearsheimer 2010) and are apparent in history and nowadays world politics. The international competition between great powers has returned and struggles of hard-power balancing remain evident (Kagan 2007). However, there are several indicators such as military, economic, technological, and international institutions that are involved and changed over time. The globalization also drives most of nations into more cooperation that is not only the hope, but also the way that all nations must seriously take into consideration. The concern of the power of or in between states and markets will not focus much on which one taking over another one, because the core tasks of security management and economic and trade management will increasingly be collective and cooperative (Ikenberry 2009). Moreover, it is not a situation of chaos, insecurity, and potential war. There is a strong liberal security community, and rising nonliberal powers seek participation in the global liberal economic and political system rather than violent confrontation as well (Srensen 2011b:165). The proposed solution in order to tackle common global problems such as climate change, energy security, and poverty will increase the stakes that autocratic regimes have in the liberal order (Deudney and Ikenberry 2009). Moreover, the Western states must also find ways to accommodate

11/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

rising states whether autocratic or democratic and intergrate them into the governance of international institutions (Deudney and Ikenberry 2009:2). In summary, such as BRICs are highly dependent on foreign trade, good exportation, international investment, and networked media. Thus, those factors will be driving them into more of financial, socio-political and environmental integration and cooperation. The rising powers will also have to integrate even more, not to exclude themselves from International institutions and global cooperation. To tackle common threats, G7, and among G20, including World Bank, WTO, and IMF, must engage, accommodate and facilitate more of industrial and development technology transfers to BRICs. Even though the world is experience some political conflicts and rivalries as such territorial conflicts and nuclear disputes, but that can be mitigated through mutual dialogue and engagement. The cooperation is somewhat the key to maintain world order. A further study on the rise of BRICs and world order should be elaborating more on the repositioning relations among democracies and non-democracies, hegemonic superpowers and new rising powers, and high-low technological-based economic countries. However, the pressure will be somehow on BRIC states to integrate more into international principles, safeguarding policy-standard and norms. As being rising power, BRICs must be taking greater responsibility to their own peoples and to the world as well. Word count: 3714

12/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order References
Bloomberg. (6 November 2012). China Buys Japan Water Rights on Two-Decade Land Price Slump [online]. [cited 6 November 2012]. Available from: <www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-05/china-buys-japan-water-rights-after-twodecade-land-prices-slump?utm> Deudney, Daniel and Ikenberry, G. John. The Myth of Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail. Foreign Affaris, 2009. 88:1, 77-93. Drezner, Daniel. The New World Order, Foreign Affairs, 2007. Vol. 86, No. 2: 34-46. Feffer, John. Frenemies. World Beat. June 2012, 7:24. Freedom House [online]. Freedom of the Press 2012 FREEDOM OF THE PRESS DATA [cited 15 November 2012]. Available from World Wide Web: <http://www.freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-press> Fukuyama. The End of History, The National Interest. 1989, no.16: 3-18 Gat, Azar. The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers, Foreign Affairs. 2007, 86:4, 59-69 Global Finance. (2010). The Poorest Countries in the World [online]. [cited 8 November 2012]. Available from World Wide Web: <www.gfmag.com/tools/globaldatabase/economic-data/10502-the-poorest-countries-in-theworld.html#axzz2Bk0IRYo8> Guardian. (8 March 2011). BRICS emergence raises the environmental stakes [online]. [cited 6 November 2012]. Available from: <www.guarding.co.uk/ sustainable-business/brics-economies-emerging-markets-global-values> Huntington, Samuel P. Clash of Civilizations?, Foreign Affairs. 1993, 22-49. Ikenberry, G. John. Liberal Internationalism 3.0: America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order, Perspectives on Politics. 2009, 7:1, 71-87. International Herald Tribule. (20 April 2012). BRICS Group [online]. [cited 5 November 2012]. Available from: <topic.nytimes.com/topics/reference/times topics/organizations/b/bric_group/index.html> James, Harold. The Rise of the BRICs And the new logic in International Politics, The International Economy, Summer 2008:41. Kagan, Robert. End of Dreams, Return of History, Policy Review. 2007, no. 144. Kagan, Robert. Historys Back: Ambitious autocracies, hesitant Democracies [online]. The Weekly Standard, 2008, 13: 46, 5 [cited 6 November 2012]. Available from: <www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/

Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287

13/13 Erasmus Mundus 2012 The Transformation of State, Globalization and the World Order
printer_preview.asp?idArticle=15426&R=162 C82AAED? Lal, Deepak. The Challenges of Globalization: There is No Third Way, in Praise of Empires, Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2004. pp. 119-142 + 232-235. Mearsheimer, John J. The Gathering Storm: Chinas Challenge to US Power in Asia, The Chinese Journal of International Politics. 2010, 3, pp. 381-96. Patrick, Stewart. Irresponsible Stakeholders? The Difficulty of Integrating Rising Powers, Foreign Affairs, 2010, Vol. 89, No. 6:44-53 Reuters. (19 October 2012). Myanmar to be invited to major U.S.-Thai military exercise [online]. [cite 19 October 2012]. Available from: <http://uk.reuters. com/article/2012/10/19/uk-usa-myanmar-militaryidUKBRE89I08720121019> Roberts, Cynthia. Polity Forum: Challengers or Stakeholders? BRICs and the Liberal World Order, Polity, 2010, 42: 1, 1-13. Sapovadia, Dr. Vrajlal K., (April 3, 2010). BRIC Potency: Truth or Trance? [online]. Social Science Research Network. [cited 8 November 2012]. Available from: < http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1583828> Srensen, Georg, Globalisation and the nation-state, in Caramani (ed.), Comparative Politics, OUP. 2011(a), 451-67. ________. Institutions and liberal world order, chapter for: A Liberal World Order in Crisis. Choosing between imposition and restraint, Ithaca: Cornell UP. 2011(b), 141-67. Steinberg, David I. (5 December 2011). Burma in the US-China Great Game [online]. Publication of Yale Center for Study of Globalization [retrieved 8 October 2012]. Available from World Wide Web:<http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/burma-us-chinagreat-game-part-i> Strange, Susan. The Declining Authority of States, in Held & McGrew, The Global Transformations Reader, Polity. (2002), 127-34. Tong Wu. (7 November 2011). China, BRICs and the Environment [online]. The Diplomat [cite 8 November 2012]. Available from: <http://thediplomat. com/china-power/china-brics-and-the-environment/> Tranparency International. Corruption By Country Index [online]. [cited 15 November 2012]. Available from World Wide Web: <www.transparency.org/country#SGP>

Siriluk Sriprasit ID: 201210287