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M&M
Automobiles CMP: Rs. 344 Target: Rs. 430
M&M’s 3QFY09 performance was below our expectation. Reported net sales at Rs 25.2 bn
were as expected down by 17%. EBIDTA margins dipped to 3.4% led by high raw material
costs, and Foreign Exchange losses. Company’s automotive segment posted margins of -
Sovid Gupta +911243024840 1%, which was much below our expectation.
We expect the company to post much good Q4 numbers on back of reduced raw material
Equity Analyst: Fairwealth Securities prices, reduced inventory write downs, improved price realization and higher sales.
Private. Ltd.
Future Estimates:
Priced on March’12, 2009
Key Financial Numbers
±% potential +25%
Target set on 12th Mar09 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E* FY10E*
Net sales 8105 9848 11281 11620 13014
EBITDA 833 1058 1095 705 1350
Adj. PAT 682 975 953 560 905
Market Data Margins (%)
Beta
EBITDA 10.3% 10.7% 9.7% 6.1% 10.4%
12M hi/lo 721/236
Market cap, INR Crores 10500 NPM 8.4% 9.9% 8.4% 4.8% 7.0%
Shares in issue (mn.) 259 Per Share Data
Reuters MAHM.BO EPS 26.43 37.79 36.94 21.71 35.08
Bloomberg MAHM: IN
P/E 13.05 9.13 9.34 15.89 9.84
Source: Fairwealth Securities Research Estimates, Company data
Standalone operations reported PAT of Rs 1.2 crore as against 405 crores same period last
year.
Production
M&M reported a 23% Y-o-Y decline in volumes to 61225 units.
Highlights:
XYLO has received good response In Q3 FY’09 entire industry came out with bad set of number as global economic
from customers. gloom had its effect on Indian economy as well, which clocked only 5.3% growth in Q3.
M&M reported a 23% Y-o-Y decline in volumes to 61225 units. Net sales however
decreased by only 14% as price realization increased by 7%.
Although volumes decreased by 23%,corresponding decrease in raw materials was
Farm equipment segment of the company only 9%, as prices of raw materials fell only in later half of Q3(Raw material form
registered a strong growth of 40% y-o-y to approximately 67% of sales for the company) .
9,123 vehicles in Feb’09 as against 6,522 First two months of Q4 FY09 has shown much better performance against last year.
vehicles in the same period last year.
January sales at 24,500 declined by 19% Y-o-Y as against 23% drop in Q3 FY’09.
Drop in sales was witnessed across all segments.
Product mix % 3QFY09 3QFY08 All companies have had a favorable month of February having registered impressive
growth led by improved lending, lower interest rates and reduced excise rates.
UV's 48% 51% M&M registered sales volume of 29000 units, 10% growth over previous year.
Three Wheelers 14% 11% Maximum growth was registered in farm equipment sales as domestic tractor sales
Tractors 33% 31%
rose by 48% to 8900 units against 6000 units in corresponding period last year.
Export 5% 7%
Source: Company Data Utility vehicles witnessed 17% growth rate on back of new product launch Xylo, finding
favour with the audience.
M&M reported a forex loss of Rs 1.4 bn on Three wheeler segment registered a growth of 45% at 3400 units.
cancellation of forward contracts for PV sales remain dismal and its sad that M&M is not taking part in the rise of Indian
exports due in 3QFY09.
middle class. Lone passenger vehicle Logan sales fell by 63% at 1000 units versus
2750 units for same period last year.
Exports fell from 1800 units (combined for automotive and Farm Equipment) to 540
units a drop of 70%.
Industry Performance
Industry performed badly in Q3 FY’09 and January’09, registering a sharp drop in volume.
However February has been a turn around of sorts as voumes raised both on M-oM and Y-
o-Y basis fist time in four months. Passenger vehicles sales witnessed a huge jump in
February. CV sales continue to struggle giving signs that economy is still into troubled
waters.
There are reports that the Indian defence forces is planning to place immediate orders to
buy vehicles to meet their requirements for two years. According to the report, if the
government approves the plan, the auto sector is expected to get Rs 3,000 crore to Rs
4,000 crore worth of orders that will be spread over the next two quarters. Mahindra and
Mahindra, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and state-owned BEML are the major
vehicle suppliers for the three defence forces.
Company Description:
M&M is the flagship company of Mahindra Group that has a significant presence in several
high growth sectors.
Standalone:
The company has two main divisions – automotive and farm equipment.
Automotive:
M&M is a dominant player in the UV segment with its ‘Scorpio’ and ‘Bolero’ models – main
constituents of sales in the automotive division and currently accounts for about half of India’s
market for utility vehicles. M&M controls a 55% share of the domestic utility vehicle market.
The auto major hopes to close this year with a 8-10% growth over the past year.
M&M is also engaged in the manufacture of three-wheelers and light commercial vehicles
(LCV’s). It is also present in domestic passenger vehicle market and manufactures Logan in
association with Renault. Going forward the company will also distribute Renault cars
manufactured in India.
Farm Equipment Segment:
With a network of 800 dealers and capacity to produce more than 150,000 tractors a years.
M&M Finance M&M is the largest manufacturers of Tractors in India. And one of the largest player globally
through plants and JV’s in US, Europe, Australia, etc.
Group Companies:
Mahindra Finance:
One of India’s leading non-banking finance companies focused on the rural and semi-urban
sectors providing finance for Utility Vehicles (UV’s), tractors and cars.
The company provides retail financing services in the rural and semi-urban areas of India, and
strategy is to provide a range of financial products and services to our customers through our
nationwide distribution network. Services provided by the company include vehicle and other
Retail Financing, Insurance and Mutual Fund selling, etc. We believe that the company has
huge growth potential and should grow at 10% compounded CAGR considering its presence
in relatively un-served rural markets,
Tech Mahindra:
Tech Mahindra (TM) is India's eighth largest software services exporter with an extensive
domain knowledge in the telecommunications industry. The company was formed in 1986 as a
joint venture between Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and British Telecom Plc (BT).Conservative
broker estimates value the company at 4x FY10E earnings. We have discounted Tech
Mahindra by 30% from the broker estimates of Rs. 300 per share.
Mahindra Lifespaces:
Valuations:
Listed Subsidiaries
Holding of 15% discounted
Valuation M.Cap Holding of
M&M value
basis (Rs. Crore) M&M (%)
(Rs. Crore) (per share basis)
Mahindra Finance CMP 1970 60% 1,182.0 39
Mahindra Forgings CMP 300 60% 180.0 6
Mahindra Life CMP 367 51% 187.2 6
Mahindra Ugine CMP 60 51% 30.6 1
Tech Mahindra CMP 3200 44% 1,408.0 46
Total 97.7
Unlisted Subsidiaries
Mahindra Resort 0.5x PE Deal 1600 98% 1,568.0 51
Sum Total 149
We have valued listed subsidiaries conservatively and have discounted their valuations by 15%.
Each of these companies has set ambitious growth targets for themselves, which would be EPS accretive for the parent company.
On individual broker consensus companies like Tech Mahindra, Mahindra Life and Mahindra Finance have been valued at double their
current market price. We believe that one year forward valuations of listed and unlisted subsidiaries would be upwards of Rs. 250 on per
share basis.
Combined value of the company comes at Rs. 430 per share. Rs. 281 for core operations and 149 for other listed and unlisted
subsidiaries.
Valuations are also supported by strong management and new initiatives of the company.
Key Risks:
Lower growth for Indian Economy could stiffle the Automobile industry, even 10% drop in Sales
will lead to sharp drop in Margins, which will lead to downward revsion for the stock.
More than expected Derivative losses and inventory write downs in Q4 are key risk areas. More
disclosures are required from the company on the same.
M&M drives almost all its sale from two segments UV’s and Tractors. High concentration and
strong dependence on two segments is a key risk area for the company.
M&M has already started witnessing cannibalization between its recently launched model Xylo
and Scorpio. Company has reported 25% cannibalization since the launch of Xylo in February.
Automotive segment already registered negative margins with the reduction in price of Scorpio in
March (between 35000 and 70000) margins will continue to be under pressure in the Automotive
segment.
Investment Rational
We rate M&M shares Buy, with a target price of Rs430.
.
Lowered excise duty, lowering of interest rates and defense segment orders are likely to be
key triggers for the entire automotive pack.
M&M's utility-vehicle business is benefiting from new product launches and strong product
positioning for both Bolero and Scorpio brands.
On the tractor business we remain positive as the business has been high margin business
for the company and we expect strong growth on back of loan waivers by the UPA
government, however curtailment of further credit by banks which are witnessing rising
NPA’s will put some pressure on sector.
Long term fundamentals remain solid. Improvement in capital markets will help company in
unlocking value by delisting is Holiday and Resort business.
Management will continue to make more efforts to leverage high dollar by focusing on
exports in select markets.
M & M has given a fresh breakout above 310-320 levels .The stock is in a strong medium term uptrend & one could go long in the scrip at
dips around 320 & then 290 for a price target of Rs.430.
Disclaimer
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