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Volume 9, Issue 5 May 2013

Homeownership and the American Dream

As AEIs Mark Perry reported, the homeownership rate in the U.S. recently hit a 17-year low in late 2012 Even so, ownership remains a goal for most Americans. Seventy-two percent of renters told Hart Research recently that homeownership is a goal to which they aspire. And while current homeowners provide diverse explanations for why they own, most renters say that they rent because they cant afford to own. Homeownership may no longer be as central to the American Dream as it was for previous generations. Sixty-one percent believe that renters can be just as successful as homeowners in achieving the American Dream. But even if it is no longer necessary, the vast majority still desire to own their own home. Eighty-nine percent told CBS News interviewers that owning a home is a very or somewhat important part of the American Dream.
Q: Is homeownership . . . ? Among non-homeowners Homeownership is something I aspire to Homeownership is not something I aspire to
Source: Hart Research for the MacArthur Foundation, April 2013.

72% 26

Q: Based on what you know right now, do you think . . . ? Homeowners and non-homeowners plans Natl. Homeowners, plan to continue to own a home for foreseeable future Non-homeowners, plan to buy home within 10 years Non-homeowners, do not plan to buy home in foreseeable future Homeowners, plan to sell and rent within 10 years
Note: * equals less than .5 percent. Source: Gallup, April 2013.

1829 56% 25 11 21% 68 7 1

3049 58% 29 9 1

5064 71% 5 15 3

65+ 69% * 15 7

Q: What are some of the reasons . . . ? Reasons you decided to own your home rather than rent An investment/Appreciate in value 16% Believe in owning/Have always owned 12 Build equity/credit 12 Smarter thing to do 12 Cheaper/More cost effective/Better deal 11 Dont want to pay rent/Live in a rental/Pay others 10 Reasons you decided to rent rather than buy a home Cant afford to buy/Lack money for down payment 45% Bad credit/Bankruptcy/Lack of financial stability 12 Job requires moving a lot 11 Convenient/Easier maintenance 10 Poor economy/Housing market 4 Lack of job 4
Source: Gallup, April 2013.

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(Home ownership, continued from the previous page)

Q: In their ability to achieve the American Dream . . . Renters can be just as successful as homeowners 61% Renters are not as successful as homeowners 28 Depends/Not sure 11
Source: Hart Research for the MacArthur Foundation, April 2013.

Q: Now, in the United States today, please tell me if each of the following is realistic for . . . Owning a home is realistic for almost anyone For the middle class and up Only for the upper class
Source: Allstate/National Journal, April 2013.

23% 61 14

Q: How important . . . ? Owning a home is a very important part of the American Dream Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important
Source: CBS/New York Times, June 2011.

55% 34 7 3

Q: Now Id like to ask you about some different goals and aspirations that are often discussed as part of the American Dream. Using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means this is definitely not a part of the American Dream and 10 means it is definitely a part of the American Dream, please tell me how each of the following fit into your version of the American Dream. Owning a home Not a part of the American Dream (pts. 03) Middle (pts. 46) Definitely a part of the American Dream (pts. 710) 5% 15 80

Q: Now, thinking about how achievable these goals and aspirations are for other people like you . . . Using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means the goal is not at all achievable and 10 means it is very achievable, please tell me how achievable each of the following are for other people like you? Owning a home Not at all achievable for people like you (pts. 03) Middle (pts. 46) Definitely achievable for people like you (pts. 710)
Source: Allstate/National Journal, March 2011.

9% 28 63

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: John Benjamin.

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New Battle Lines in the Culture Wars?

In a recent article in the National Journal, Ron Brownstein argued that the culture wars now favor the Democrats, almost completely invert[ing] the politics that reigned from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush. Recent polls show people feel more in sync with Democrats approach than Republicans on social and cultural issues. Other polls show that attitudes on social and culture issues are moving in a more liberal direction. In a Gallup poll from 2012, 52 percent said government should not favor any particular set of values, while 44 percent said it should promote traditional values. In all earlier askings of this question, more people said government should promote traditional values. In a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, slightly more Americans agreed that society should promote greater respect for traditional values (50 percent) rather than encourage greater tolerance of different lifestyles and backgrounds (44 percent). But those responses represent a significant change from 1999, when 60 percent said promoting traditional values was more important and 29 percent encouraging tolerance was.
Q: Some people think government should promote traditional values in our society. Other people say government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your view? Government should promote traditional values Government should not favor any particular set of values
Source: Gallup, September 2012.

44% 52

Q: Which should be a more important goal for our society these days . . . ? 2013 50% 44 Promoting greater respect for traditional social and moral values Encouraging greater tolerance of people with different lifestyles and backgrounds 1999 60% 29

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of April 2013.

Q: Using a scale from 1 to 5 where a 5 means that you totally agree and a 1 means that you totally disagree, please tell me how closely you . . . ? With the Republican Party on their approach to social and cultural issues With the Democratic Party on their approach to social and cultural issues Agree 22% 37 Disagree 47% 38

Note: Agree represents points 4 and 5 on a 5-point scale. Disagree represents points 1 and 2 on the 5-point scale. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, April 2013.

Q: When you hear the phrase social and cultural issues, what does it mean to you? National response Gay rights Tolerance/Respect Abortion Illegal immigrants Racial equality Cultural differences Values/Traditions Respect for nationalities/ Ethnicities 15 8 7 7 7 7 7 Responses of Republicans Democrats Independents 22% 19% 19% 18% 12 15 10 8 6 7 7 5 7 8 7 2 5 9 9 9 5 6 4 7 5

Note: National responses below 7 percent are not shown. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, April 2013.

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Pressures on the Family

Slightly more Americans told NBC/Wall Street Journal pollsters that economic and financial pressures on the family are a more important problem than the decline in moral values. The results are consistent with another question that NBC and WSJ first asked in 1999 and recently updated, inviting people to rank issues that face families. Economic pressures are seen as the top challenge facing families today. Sixty-eight percent listed economic pressure to make ends meet as a very serious problem. In 1999, 50 percent gave that response. Concern over parents not paying enough attention to their childrens lives ranks high as well, although not as high as it did in 1999. New concerns, such as online bullying and lack of exercise, are considered very serious problems as well. One issue that doesnt garner as much concern as it did in 1999 is the high rate of divorce and the breakup of families. In 1999, 63 percent considered it a very serious problem. Now, 48 percent do.
Q: Let me read you two statements about the problems facing society today, and please tell me which one comes closer to your view. 2013 1994 Most serious problems in our society 43% stem mainly from a decline in moral values 51% 50 Most serious problems in our society stem mainly from economic and financial pressures on the family 34

Note: 1994 survey conducted by Hart Research for People for the American Way. Sample was registered voters. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of April 2013.

Q: Now, Im going to read a list of things that some people consider to be problems facing American families today. For each one, please tell me how serious a problem you feel it is for families today . . . ? Very serious problem for families Economic pressures to make ends meet Parents not paying enough attention to whats going on in their childrens lives Economic pressures forcing parents to work more and spend less time with their family The bullying of children on the Internet or through social media Peer pressure on children to use drugs Young people getting less physical activity and exercise The public education system not providing quality instruction Young people not developing the social skills they need because of texting and social media The high rate of divorce and the breakup of families The rise of single-parent households The declining role of religion in our society Movies, TV, and video games that portray violence and violent behavior The declining sense of community and neighborhoods The emphasis on putting career ahead of family The rise of households in which both parents work The rise in the use of texting and social media
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of April 2013.

2013 68% 64 64 62 58 57 56 49 48 45 45 43 36 34 29 27

1999 50% 83 NA NA 68 NA NA NA 63 46 49 51 47 42 31 NA

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Personal Economic Outlook: Holding On

About half of Americans evaluate their present situation as excellent or good, but positive assessments are not as strong as they were before the 2008 financial crisis. College graduates and those with a postgraduate degree are more likely to give a positive evaluation. Non-whites are much more likely than whites to say that their personal financial situation is getting better. Forty-two percent of non-whites say their current situation is excellent or good, but 60 percent think it is going to get better.
Q: How would you rate your financial situation today . . . ? Q: Right now, do you think your financial situation . . . ?
70%

60%

Your financial situation today is excellent/good

47% 45%

50%

40%

30%

Your financial situation as a whole is getting better

20% Oct-2001 Oct-2002 Oct-2003 Oct-2004 Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012 Apr-2013

Positive evaluations of finances Situation today Situation is is excellent/Good getting better 1829 years old 48% 73% 3049 43 53 5064 44 37 65+ 48 23 High school or less Some college College grad Postgraduate 34% 41 62 66 45% 48 47 52

Male Female White Nonwhite Black Hispanic

Positive evaluations of finances Situation today Situation is is excellent/Good getting better 44% 50% 46 45 47% 42 38 42 41% 62 60 61

Source: Gallup, latest that of April 2013.

Q: Have you been asked to do more work without added pay . . . ? Yes National College grads $75,000 a year or more
Note: Asked of those employed full or part-time. Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

29% 40 35
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Q: Thinking about the next twelve months, how likely . . . ? Apr. 2013 Very likely that you will lose your job or be laid off Fairly likely Not too likely Not at all likely
Source: Gallup, April 2013.

Apr. 2012 5% 10 42 42

Apr. 2010 8% 13 40 38

6% 12 35 45

Q: How much does each affect your household finances . . . ? A lot Gas prices Prices for food, consumer goods Federal budget deficit Job situation Real estate values Stock market
Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

64% 58 39 39 32 23

The Nations Economy: Still a Long Way to Go

Q: Which of these best describes your opinion? Mar. 2013 The economy is recovering It will recover soon It will be a long time before it recovers
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2013. .

27% 31 40

Feb. 2012 25% 29 44

Mar. 2011 20% 24 54

Mar. 2010 13% 37 48

Q: Over the next year, do you think . . . ? Apr. 2013 The average price of houses in your area will increase Stay the same Decrease
Note: Asked of current homeowners. Source: Gallup, latest that of April 2013.

Apr. 2012 51% 37 31% 47 21

Apr. 2011 25% 44 30

Apr. 2010 32% 45 22

12

Q: Thinking now about job opportunities where you live . . . ? Apr. 2013 Plenty of jobs available Jobs are difficult to find
Note: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of April 2013.

24%

Apr. 2012 24% 67 70

Jul. 2011 14% 82

Dec. 2009 12% 84

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Hot Topics: Public Views

Below we run through current opinions on immigration, health care, the sequester, and the new social issues: gays, grass, and guns.

Immigration
When Fox News gave registered voters a list of issues and asked which was the most important for the President and Congress to work on right now, 42 percent chose the economy and jobs; 4 percent immigration. When Pew asked people whether they favored the immigration bill currently being debated in Congress without giving any information about it, 33 percent were in favor, 28 percent opposed, and 38 percent had no opinion. The high no opinion could be an indication that most people arent focusing on it. CBS and the New York Times ask about a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and include in the wording that illegal immigrants would have to meet certain requirements, like paying fines and back taxes, passing criminal background checks, and learning English. When framed this way, 83 percent support the legislation, including 84 percent of Republicans, 87 percent of Democrats, and 80 percent of independents. When CBS and the New York Times asked the 83 percent who favored a path to citizenship about border security, 35 percent said the pathway should be allowed only after the border was secured and 56 percent while border security is still being strengthened. Republicans and Democrats had very different opinions: 49 percent of Republicans said it should be done only after the border was secured, while 43 percent said it could be done as it was being secured. Those responses for Democrats were 25 percent and 66 percent, respectively. There is strong support in polls for a system of electronic verification of status. Eighty percent told CBS and New York Times pollsters that they favor creating a federal employment verification system, that all employers would be required to use to confirm that the new hires are legally authorized to work in the US. In the new Quinnipiac poll, people were split, 39 percent to 38 percent, over whether the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans there could do a better job on the issue.

Health Care
When Fox News gave registered voters a list of issues and asked which was the most important for the President and Congress to work on right now, 42 percent chose the economy and jobs; 7 percent said health care. The Kaiser Family Foundation asks people every month about their views of the health care law. In its latest April poll, 35 percent had a favorable view. This is the lowest response since the Kaiser team started asking about it in April 2010. Forty percent had an unfavorable opinion. Kaiser found that many people were uncertain of the laws status. Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed said it was still the law of the land and is being implemented, while 7 percent said it had been overturned by the Supreme Court and is no longer law, and another 12 percent said it had been repealed by Congress and is no longer law. In the new Fox News poll, 43 percent of registered voters approved of the way the President was handling health care, and 53 percent disapproved. The Presidents marks on handling the issue improved a little in the fall, but now they are back to where they have been for a while. In the new Quinnipiac poll, 43 percent said the Democrats in Congress would do a better job handling health care, and 38 percent the Republicans.

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The Sequester
Gallup has asked people four times since early March about the automatic spending cuts that went into effect on March 1. In each of these questions, around half have said they didnt know enough to say whether the sequesters effects would be good or bad for the country. Of the remainder, around 30 percent say they have been a bad thing, and 17 percent a good thing. In a CBS/New York Times question, 10 percent said the automatic spending cuts would help the economy, 46 percent hurt it, and 35 percent have no effect. In the polls weve seen, negativity about the sequester outweighs positive feelings, but most people do not appear to be following what is happening closely.

The New Social Issues: Gays, Grass, and Guns

Most new polls show more support than opposition for gay marriage, with support hovering around 50 to 53 percent. The ABC /Washington Post poll from March, which had 58 percent agreeing that it should be legal for gay and lesbian couples to get married, is a high point. A late April Quinnipiac poll finds 45 percent in support of same-sex marriage, and 47 percent opposed. We look to the views of young people because they often lead change. In a new Harvard University Institute of Politics poll, 42 percent of 18-29 year olds said the government should recognize same-sex marriage, while 26 percent said it should not, and a third neither agreed nor disagreed. In Pews polling from March, 52 percent said the use of marijuana should be made legal and 45 percent were opposed. Gallup has watched support climb in recent years to a near majority in most polls. In 1973, when the National Opinion Research Center first asked this question, 19 percent were in favor of legalization. Forty-four percent in the new Harvard Institute of Politics poll of 18-29 year olds were in favor of legalizing marijuana while a third were opposed and 22 were neither in favor or opposed. Eleven percent admitted to having used marijuana in the past few months; 55 percent gave that response about alcohol. Nationally, in a new poll from the Public Religion Research Institute, 42 percent said they had tried marijuana. In a recent Fox News poll, 85 percent thought that adults should be allowed to use marijuana for medical purposes if a physician prescribes it. Yet, a plurality of 47 percent acknowledged that most people who smoke medical marijuana just want to smoke marijuana. Thirty percent thought medical users truly need it. Will gun control play a big role in the 2014 elections? It is too early to say at this point. The question was asked after the Manchin-Toomey legislation, which aimed to implement stricter background checks, failed. The idea had substantial majority support in all the polls we saw. After the vote in a CBS/New York Times poll, 19 percent said they were angry about the bills outcome and 40 percent disappointed. In the Quinnipiac poll, a third said they were angry and 38 percent dissatisfied. Still, the issue is far from the forefront of public concerns now. When Fox News gave registered voters a list of issues and asked which was the most important for the President and Congress to work on right now, 42% chose the economy and jobs; 5% guns. In the Quinnipiac poll, when people were asked whether President Obama should continue to pursue a law on background checks or move on, 17 percent said he should pursue the law, 30 percent move on, while 50 percent do both. In a CBS/New York Times poll, 47 percent said they could not vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on gun laws. Forty-one percent said they could..As a point of comparison, only 29 percent said they could not vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on immigration; 57 percent said they could . In the new Quinnipiac poll, 42 percent said they thought the Republicans in Congress would do a better job handling gun policy, and 38 percent gave the nod to the Democrats. Independents preferred the GOP.

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Science!
Pew recently asked people 13 basic science questions. The quiz has been recreated below, with answers underneath. We also display the average number of correct responses by subgroup.
1. All radioactivity is man-made. 2. Electrons are smaller than atoms. 3. Lasers work by focusing sound waves. 4. The continents on which we live have been moving their location for millions of years and will continue to move in the future 5. Which one of the following types of solar radiation does sunscreen protect the skin from? 6. Does nanotechnology deal with things that are extremely . . .? 7. Which gas makes up most of the Earths atmosphere? 8. What is the main function of red blood cells? True True True True False False False False

X-rays Ultraviolet Small Cold Hydrogen Carbon dioxide

Infrared Microwaves Large Hot Nitrogen Oxygen

Fight disease in the body Carry oxygen to all parts of the body Help the blood to clot It can lead to antibiotic-resistant bacteria Antibiotics are very expensive People will become addicted to antibiotics Water boiling Sugar dissolving Nails rusting

9. Which is these is a major concern about the over use of antibiotics? 10. Which is an example of a chemical reaction? 11. Which is the better way to determine whether a new drug is effective in treating a disease? If a scientist has a group of 1,000 volunteers with the disease to study, should she . . .? 12. What gas do most scientist believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? 13. Which natural resource is extracted in a process known as fracking?

Give the drug to all of them and see how many get better Give the drug to half of them but not to the other half, and compare how many in each group get better Carbon dioxide Helium Coal Natural gas Hydrogen Radon Diamonds Silicon

Answers (Percent who answers correctly): 1: False (66% answered correctly). 2: True (47%). 3: False (48%). 4: True (77%). 5: Ultraviolet (83%). 6: Small (65%). 7: Nitrogen (20%). 8: Carry Oxygen (78%). 9: Resistant bacteria (77%). 10: Nails rusting (66%). 11: Give drug to half (75%). 12: Carbon dioxide (58%). 13: Natural gas (51%). Average number of correct answers by subgroups (out of 13 answers) 1829 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 High school or less . . . . . 6.5 Some college . . . . . . . . . 8.7 3049 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 5064 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 College grad . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5

Men . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7

Source: Pew Research Center, April 2013.

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