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.
Hence the number of ways of choosing 2 balls from a box of 14 balls is
14
2
C
. The balls are randomly chosen. So the
14
2
C possibilities are equally likely.
(i) To get red 2 red balls from the box, the selection should be from the 5 red
balls contained in the box. For this there are
5
2
C different ways. Therefore
out of
14
2
C equally likely ways for choosing 2 balls from the box the
5
2
C
ways are favorable for the event of getting red balls.
Hence P (the balls are red) =
5
2
14
2
10
91
C
C
= .
(ii) To get 1 white and 1 red ball, one ball should be selected from the given 6
white balls and the other ball from the 5 red balls. Total ways for selecting
one whit ball is
6
1
C and that of red ball is
5
1
C .
If first job can be performed in
1
n ways, second job in
2
n ways, , the
th
r
job in
r
n ways, then the entire r jobs can be performed simultaneously in
( )
1 2
...
r
n n n ways.
Now, the job of selecting one white and one red ball can be performed in
6 5
1 1
C C ways out of
14
2
C ways of selecting two balls from the box.
So, P (the balls are red and white) =
6 5
1 1
14
2
30
91
C C
C
=
(iii) As explained in earlier cases, the number of ways for getting 2 blue balls
from the box with 3 blue balls is
3
2
C . Since the total number of ways for
getting 2 balls from the box is
14
2
C , the required probability is,
5
P (the balls are red) =
3
2
14
2
3
91
C
C
= .
What is the probability that two persons in a room having same date of birth?
Solution:
The birth date of each one of these persons may be any of the 365 days in a
year (we are ignoring the possibility of someone having date of birth on 29
th
February). Hence there are a total of
2
365 365 (365) = equally likely possible
outcomes for the date of births.
P (the two persons having the same date of birth)
= 1- (the two persons having different date of births)
Let the first person is having his birth date on any one of the 365 days. For
the occurrence of date of births on different days for these two persons, the date
of birth of the second person should be any of the remaining 364 days. Hence,
for the event of the two persons having different date of births there are
365 364 possibilities out of
2
(365) ways of the total possible date of births.
This gives,
P (the two persons having different date of births)
( )
2
365 364 364
365
365
= =
Thus,
P (two persons in a room having same date of birth) =
364 1
1
365 365
= .
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Conditional probability:
The probability of an event A, given that an event B of the same sample space
has happened is called the conditional probability of A given B and is denoted by
P(A/B).
Consider the random experiment of tossing an unbiased die. Let the events
{ } 1,3 A= and { } 1,3,5 B = . Then P(A/B) is the probability of the outcomes 1 or 3, under
6
the information that the experiment has resulted in an odd number (ie.,
{ } 1,3,5 B = is an
event of odd numbers in a die tossing experiment) .
Since the sample space of the experiment
{ } 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 S = , by the classical
definition, the unconditional probabilities of A and B are,
2
( )
6
P A = and
3
( )
6
P B = . But
when we are considering the conditional probability P (A/B), we are given the
experiment was resulted in B. Now it need only to find how many cases of B are
favorable to the event A. Here B contains 3 cases out of which the two cases (1 and 3)
are favorable to A. Hence the probability of the occurrence of A, through B is
2
3
. That is
2
( / )
3
P A B = .
In other words, the conditional probability ( / ) P A B is the probability of A, when
the sample space of the experiment is reduced to the event B.
Mathematically, ( / ) P A B is defined as,
( )
( / ) , , ( ) 0
( )
P A B
P A B provided P B
P B
= =
Or,
( )
( / ) , ( ) 0
( )
P A B
P B A provided P A
P A
= = .
From the above definition, it can reduce,
( ) ( ) ( / ) P A B P A P B A = , ( ) 0 P A = or ( ) ( ) ( / ) P A B P B P A B = , ( ) 0 P B = --- (*)
Equations (*) are known as the multiplication theorem for two events A and B.
Independence of events:
If the information that the event A has happened makes no change in the
probability of the happening of the event B, we say that A and B are two independent
events. That is if ( / ) ( ) P B A P B = itself, we say that A and B are independent events.
From (*), we have, ( ) ( ) ( / ) P A B P A P B A = provided, ( ) 0 P A =
Then, if A and B are independent events, we get,
7
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = , provided, ( ) 0 P A =
Also we have,
( ) ( ) ( / ) P A B P B P A B = , provided ( ) 0 P B =
Since for two independent events A and B, ( / ) ( ) P A B P A =
We get,
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = , provided, ( ) 0 P B =
Hence, in short, two events A and B are said to be independent, if
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = , where ( ) 0 P A = and ( ) 0 P B = .
Note: Two disjoint (mutually exclusive) events cannot be independent.
Justification:
Assume two disjoint events A and B. The events A and B are
independent, if
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = , where ( ) 0 P A = and ( ) 0 P B =
Since it is given A and B are disjoint,
( ) 0 P A B =
For them to be independent, 0 ( ) ( ) P A P B = , where ( ) 0 P A = and ( ) 0 P B = But
this cannot happen. Hence two disjoint (mutually exclusive) events cannot be
independent.
Problems:
Two unbiased dice are thrown. Let A denote the event that the sum of the numbers
shown on the faces is odd and B denote the event that at least one die shows the face
with the number 1. (i) Describe the complete sample space (ii) Find probabilities of the
events (a)
c c
A B (b)
c
A B (c) / A B (d) /
c c
A B .
Solution:
8
(i) The sample space contains 36 possibilities listed below. Since the given dice
are unbiased, the possibilities are equally likely and each is with probability
1
36
.
( ) { ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )}
1,1 , 1, 2 , 1, 3 , 1, 4 , 1, 5 , 1, 6 ,
2,1 , 2, 2 , 2, 3 , 2, 4 , 2, 5 , 2, 6 ,
3,1 , 3, 2 , 3, 3 , 3, 4 , 3, 5 , 3, 6 ,
4,1 , 4, 2 , 4, 3 , 4, 4 , 4, 5 , 4, 6 ,
5,1 , 5, 2 , 5, 3 , 5, 4 , 5, 5 , 5, 6 ,
6,1 , 6, 2 , 6, 3 , 6, 4 , 6, 5 , 6, 6
S =
(ii) The following 18 points are favorable to the event A, ie.,
( ) { ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )}
1, 2 , 1, 4 , 1, 6 , 2,1 , 2, 3 , 2, 5 ,
3, 2 , 3, 4 , 3, 6 , 4,1 , 4, 3 , 4, 5 ,
5, 2 , 5, 4 , 5, 6 , 6,1 , 6, 3 , 6, 5
A =
Hence, P(A)=
18
36
.
Out the 36 cases, the following 11 contained at least one 1.
This gives,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
(1,1), 1, 2 , 1, 3 , 1, 4 , 1, 5 , 1, 6 ,
2,1 , 3,1 , 4,1 , 5,1 , 6,1
B
=
`
)
Hence, P(B) =
11
36
(a) By De Morgans law,
( ) ( ) 1 ( )
c c c
P A B P A B P A B = =
9
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )}
(1,1), (1, 2), (1, 3), 1, 4 , (1, 5), 1, 6 , 2,1 , 2, 3 , 2, 5 ,
(3,1), 3, 2 , 3, 4 , 3, 6 , 4,1 , 4, 3 , 4, 5 ,
(5,1), 5, 2 , 5, 4 , 5, 6 , 6,1 , 6, 3 , 6, 5
A B
=
`
)
This contains 23 elements out of 36 equally likely possibilities. Then,
23
( )
36
P A B = .
23 13
( ) 1
36 36
P A B = =
(b)
( ) { ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )}
( ) 2, 3 , 2, 5 , 3, 2 , 3, 4 , 3, 6 , 4, 3 , 4, 5 ,
5, 2 , 5, 4 , 5, 6 , 6, 3 , 6, 5
A B =
Since ( ) A B contains 12 elements, ( ) P A B
12
36
= .
(c)
( )
( / )
( )
P A B
P A B
P B
=
( ) ( ) { ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )}
1, 2 , 1, 4 , 1, 6 , 2,1 , 4,1 , 6,1 A B = .
( ) A B contains 6 elements,
( )
6
36
P A B = .
Hence,
( )
6
6
36
( / )
11
( ) 11
36
P A B
P A B
P B
= = = .
(d)
( )
( / )
( )
c c
c c
c
P A B
P A B
P B
=
We have,
13
( )
36
c c
P A B =
10
and
11 25
( ) 1 ( ) 1
36 36
c
P B P B = = =
13
36
25
35
( ) 13
( / )
( ) 25
c c
c c
c
P A B
P A B
P B
= = = .
A box of 10 items, 2 are defective. Items are randomly selected from the box one by and
examined. What is the probability that the sixth item selected is the last defective.
Solution
For the occurrence of the event the sixth item is the last defective, the
first five selections should contain one of the two defectives and the sixth
selection should be the second defective.
Let A be the event of getting one defective from the first five selections
and B be the event of getting the last (second) defective in the sixth selection.
The required probability is ( ) P A B .
We have ( ) ( ). ( / ) P A B P A P B A =
Here, the first five items can be selected in
10
5
C equally likely ways. Out
of these 5 items, to get 4 good and 1 defective, the 4 good items are selected from
the 8 good items and 1 defective is to be collected from the available two
defectives. This can be performed in
8 2
4 1
C C ways.
Hence,
8 2
4 1
10
5
( )
C C
P A
C
= .
If A has already happened, then the box contains five items, out of
which one is defective. Hence the probability of the occurrence of B under the
condition that the event A already happened is the probability of selecting the
last defective item from the box of remaining 5 items.
This gives,
1
( / )
5
P B A = .
Thus,
8 2
4 1
10
5
1
( )
5
C C
P A B
C
=
1
9
= .
A and B are two independent events in the sample space S. Show that (i)
c
A and B (ii)
c c
A and B are also independent pairs.
11
Solution
Given A and B are independent events, this gives,
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = , where ( ) 0 P A = and ( ) 0 P B = .
Since ( ) 0 P A = and ( ) 0 P B = , ( )
c
P A and ( )
c
P B are also non zeroes.
(i) Here to show ( ) ( ) ( )
c c
P A B P A P B =
We have ( ) ( ) ( )
c
P A B P B P A B =
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = gives,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P B P A P B =
| | ( ) 1 ( ) P B P A =
( ) ( ) ( )
c c
P A B P B P A =
Hence by definition A and B are independent.
(ii) Consider ( ) P A B
By De Morgans law, ( ) ( )
c c c
P A P A B =
| | ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A B P A P B P A B = = +
1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A P B P A P B = +
(Since A and B are independent)
| | ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) 1 ( )
c c
P A B P A P B P A =
| | | | ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) ( )
c c c c
P A B P A P B P A P B = =
This implies A and B are independent.